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2021-06-24

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What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote>

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Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.<blockquote>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加道路上的电动汽车数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业——至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.<blockquote>据国际能源署(IEA)称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计都是电动的。杰富瑞集团(Jefferies Group)综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧(Giacomo Romeo)表示，运输业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(NSANY)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(HYMTF)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”<blockquote>特斯拉等电动乘用车（特斯拉)-获取报告Model 3，日产的(恩萨尼)聆风、现代的(HYMTF)预计到2050年，Kona Electric和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的86%，比去年的1%大幅上升。与此同时，根据IEA的报告，电动货车占所有货车的比例预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别高于2%和0%。“2050年净零排放：全球能源行业路线图。”</blockquote> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.<blockquote>预计推动美国这一增长的催化剂将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车总数及其提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示，电动汽车。这家汽车研究公司今年发布了一份报告，发现美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下纪录，预计今年电动汽车将占美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"<blockquote>Edmunds Insights执行董事杰西卡·考德威尔(Jessica Caldwell)表示：“价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。”“你总是为电动汽车支付更多费用，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算购买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们会发现他们可以买到比电动汽车具有更多功能的更大的汽车。人们将更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的汽车。”</blockquote> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.<blockquote>最近，消费者的偏好转向了大型车辆，而且往往是汽油动力车辆。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩展到乘用车和SUV之外。</blockquote> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.<blockquote>根据Deloitte Insights的《电动汽车为2030年设定方向》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年电动汽车销量的250万辆。</blockquote> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(RDS.A) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(BP ADR), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.<blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，特别是荷兰皇家壳牌（RDS.A)-Get报告和英国石油(BP ADR分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，可能不会重蹈恐龙的覆辙。</blockquote> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.<blockquote>德勤英国汽车行业战略和运营总监兼负责人杰米·汉密尔顿(Jamie Hamilton)表示：“我不确定交通运输行业能否实现100%电动汽车。”“根据价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内实现这一目标，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote> Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance<blockquote>恐龙学会了一种新的舞蹈</blockquote> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.<blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索一系列解决方案，以避免电动汽车可能带来的石油和天然气需求下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭时，交通需求会大幅下降，人们会呆在家里，而不是去办公室或旅行。</blockquote> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”<blockquote>“一段时间以来，大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注更大市场正在发生的变化，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着新冠疫情导致驾驶和通勤量的下降，这种情况更加严重德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行董事凯特·哈丁表示：“比人们预测的还要明显。”“这使得一些社区的通勤时间减少了40%到50%。”</blockquote> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.<blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.<blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如包括太阳能和风能在内的可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.<blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多为10%，而提炼化石燃料的下游业务的回报率为10%至15%，提取和生产燃料的上游业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有更高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远高于发电业务。</blockquote> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.<blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务中与环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.<blockquote>“总有一个平衡必须权衡，”罗密欧说。</blockquote> One-Stop Shop Strategy<blockquote>一站式策略</blockquote> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.<blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.<blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其转变为电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司则希望一旦转型，可以从中赚更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油需要更长的时间。</blockquote> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.<blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入还要多。</blockquote> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”<blockquote>“石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们将花更多时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买杂货，”罗密欧说。“BP和壳牌已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.<blockquote>然而，人们使用零售充电站的频率也会降低，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote> Other Survival Strategies<blockquote>其他生存策略</blockquote> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.<blockquote>由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料生产的生物燃料是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正在与传统喷气燃料混合，但例如波音BA计划到2030年让其机队使用100%生物燃料。</blockquote> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.<blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的Neste公司（场外交易代码：NTOIY）最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为全球最大的可再生柴油生产商，其回报率为30%，而传统炼油业务的回报率为12%。</blockquote> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.<blockquote>负责勘探、生产和炼油等流程所有三个方面的综合石油和天然气公司也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供源源不断的能量，它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.<blockquote>储存能源是有利可图的，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的每小时255太瓦(TWh)增加到2030年的560TWh。</blockquote> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.<blockquote>根据《财富商业洞察》的数据，到2027年，电池储能市场预计将达到197亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据IBISWorld的数据，全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场今年预计将达到2.1万亿美元。</blockquote> Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive<blockquote>哪些石油公司仍能蓬勃发展</blockquote> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.<blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食其化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”<blockquote>“我喜欢壳牌——我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型，”罗密欧说。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他补偿的组合向客户提供脱碳解决方案。”</blockquote> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.<blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和国家最近采取行动限制未来几十年新型汽油动力汽车的销售，但传统石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.<blockquote>“汽油动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是汽油动力汽车的所有权。我认为石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转变窗口。这不是一个翻转开关，他们就走了，”考德威尔说。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat the Growing Ascendance of Electric Vehicles Means for Oil and Gas Stocks<blockquote>电动汽车的日益崛起对石油和天然气股意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe Street2021-06-24 15:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate. Electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.<blockquote>随着特斯拉和其他汽车制造商增加道路上的电动汽车数量，石油和天然气公司正在尝试一系列策略来弥补。电动汽车（EV）即将席卷石油和天然气行业——至少乍一看是这样。</blockquote> By 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.<blockquote>据国际能源署(IEA)称，到2050年，全球道路上的绝大多数运输车辆预计都是电动的。杰富瑞集团(Jefferies Group)综合石油和天然气分析师贾科莫·罗密欧(Giacomo Romeo)表示，运输业约占综合石油和天然气公司所有业务的一半，这些公司处理从勘探到生产再到炼油的所有三个方面。</blockquote> Electric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA) -Get Report&nbsp;Model 3, Nissan’s&nbsp;(NSANY)&nbsp;Leaf, Hyundai’s&nbsp;(HYMTF)&nbsp;Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”<blockquote>特斯拉等电动乘用车（特斯拉)-获取报告Model 3，日产的(恩萨尼)聆风、现代的(HYMTF)预计到2050年，Kona Electric和其他公司将占道路上所有乘用车的86%，比去年的1%大幅上升。与此同时，根据IEA的报告，电动货车占所有货车的比例预计将从去年的0%飙升至84%，而79%的公共汽车和59%的重型卡车将是电动的，分别高于2%和0%。“2050年净零排放：全球能源行业路线图。”</blockquote> Catalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.<blockquote>预计推动美国这一增长的催化剂将来自汽车制造商增加电动汽车总数及其提供的车型数量、政府机构为消费者购买电动汽车提供激励措施以及拜登总统支持增加电动汽车的使用埃德蒙兹表示，电动汽车。这家汽车研究公司今年发布了一份报告，发现美国电动汽车市场今年的销量有望创下纪录，预计今年电动汽车将占美国汽车销量的2.5%，高于2020年的1.9%。</blockquote> “Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"<blockquote>Edmunds Insights执行董事杰西卡·考德威尔(Jessica Caldwell)表示：“价格和车型选择是消费者购买电动汽车的最大障碍。”“你总是为电动汽车支付更多费用，一旦人们开始购买汽车，他们一开始就打算购买电动汽车，但当他们开始比较时，他们会发现他们可以买到比电动汽车具有更多功能的更大的汽车。人们将更大等同于更好，认为这是一辆更好、更有价值的汽车。”</blockquote> Recently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.<blockquote>最近，消费者的偏好转向了大型车辆，而且往往是汽油动力车辆。但考德威尔指出，今年，消费者将首次可以选择购买电动卡车，这将消费电动汽车类别扩展到乘用车和SUV之外。</blockquote> By 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.<blockquote>根据Deloitte Insights的《电动汽车为2030年设定方向》报告，到2030年，全球电动汽车销量预计将达到3110万辆，约占所有新车销量的32%，高于去年电动汽车销量的250万辆。</blockquote> However, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell&nbsp;(RDS.A) -Get Report&nbsp;and British Petroleum&nbsp;(BP ADR), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.<blockquote>然而，石油和天然气公司，特别是荷兰皇家壳牌（RDS.A)-Get报告和英国石油(BP ADR分析师表示，随着对化石燃料的需求大幅下降，可能不会重蹈恐龙的覆辙。</blockquote> “I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.<blockquote>德勤英国汽车行业战略和运营总监兼负责人杰米·汉密尔顿(Jamie Hamilton)表示：“我不确定交通运输行业能否实现100%电动汽车。”“根据价格下降和充电基础设施的推出，乘用车可能会在未来五到十年内实现这一目标，但货运和重型车辆可能不会”，因为它们的重量。</blockquote> Dinosaurs Learn a New Dance<blockquote>恐龙学会了一种新的舞蹈</blockquote> The oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.<blockquote>石油和天然气行业正在探索一系列解决方案，以避免电动汽车可能带来的石油和天然气需求下降带来的财务打击。他们尝到了当新冠肺炎来袭时，交通需求会大幅下降，人们会呆在家里，而不是去办公室或旅行。</blockquote> “Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”<blockquote>“一段时间以来，大多数石油和天然气行业已经关注更大市场正在发生的变化，因此电动汽车的增长并不令人意外。但随着新冠疫情导致驾驶和通勤量的下降，这种情况更加严重德勤能源、资源和工业研究中心执行董事凯特·哈丁表示：“比人们预测的还要明显。”“这使得一些社区的通勤时间减少了40%到50%。”</blockquote> Hardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.<blockquote>哈丁表示，大型石油和天然气公司之间已经进行了大量讨论，以探索新的商业模式，例如开发太阳能、电池技术和储能。</blockquote> Many fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.<blockquote>罗密欧说，许多化石燃料公司正在投资发电，例如包括太阳能和风能在内的可再生能源。目前，石油和天然气行业将其总资本的15%投资于发电，预计2025年后这一比例将增至25%。</blockquote> However, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.<blockquote>然而，罗密欧表示，发电业务的回报率最多为10%，而提炼化石燃料的下游业务的回报率为10%至15%，提取和生产燃料的上游业务的回报率约为20%。虽然石油和天然气业务通常具有更高的回报，但罗马表示，该业务的波动性也远高于发电业务。</blockquote> Additionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.<blockquote>此外，由于石油和天然气业务中与环境、社会和治理（ESG）相关的担忧日益增加，以及投资者兴趣下降，石油和天然气业务的资本成本高于可再生能源行业。</blockquote> “There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.<blockquote>“总有一个平衡必须权衡，”罗密欧说。</blockquote> One-Stop Shop Strategy<blockquote>一站式策略</blockquote> The larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.<blockquote>随着消费者的需求和行为预计会发生变化，大型石油和天然气公司也在评估其零售加油站的设计和使用。</blockquote> Companies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.<blockquote>拥有大型加油站网络的公司正在考虑将其转变为电动汽车充电站，而那些将便利店作为加油站一部分的公司则希望一旦转型，可以从中赚更多的钱。这是因为给电动汽车充电通常比给内燃机汽车加满汽油需要更长的时间。</blockquote> Companies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.<blockquote>罗密欧说，欧洲和美国的公司实际上从零售站的非燃料业务中获得的收入比从燃料中获得的收入还要多。</blockquote> “Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”<blockquote>“石油公司认为，随着人们给汽车充电，他们将花更多时间在零售店喝咖啡、购买杂货，”罗密欧说。“BP和壳牌已经在讨论这个问题了。”</blockquote> However, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.<blockquote>然而，人们使用零售充电站的频率也会降低，因为他们可以在家里、工作场所或其他有充电站的地方给汽车充电。</blockquote> Other Survival Strategies<blockquote>其他生存策略</blockquote> Biofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.<blockquote>由玉米、其他蔬菜和动物脂肪等有机材料生产的生物燃料是石油和天然气公司正在探索的另一个领域。据路透社报道，对于航空业来说，生物燃料目前正在与传统喷气燃料混合，但例如波音BA计划到2030年让其机队使用100%生物燃料。</blockquote> Biofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.<blockquote>罗密欧指出，生物燃料的投资回报率也很高。总部位于芬兰的Neste公司（场外交易代码：NTOIY）最近摆脱了传统炼油业务，成为全球最大的可再生柴油生产商，其回报率为30%，而传统炼油业务的回报率为12%。</blockquote> Integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.<blockquote>负责勘探、生产和炼油等流程所有三个方面的综合石油和天然气公司也在投资氢和电池。因为太阳能和风能等可再生能源不能提供源源不断的能量，它们产生的能量需要储存在氢气或电池中以备后用。</blockquote> Storing energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.<blockquote>储存能源是有利可图的，因为它允许壳牌和英国石油公司等公司充当利用供需的能源交易商。罗密欧表示，例如，壳牌计划将其电力交易业务从目前的每小时255太瓦(TWh)增加到2030年的560TWh。</blockquote> The battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.<blockquote>根据《财富商业洞察》的数据，到2027年，电池储能市场预计将达到197亿美元。然而，与全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场相比，这只是九牛一毛，根据IBISWorld的数据，全球石油和天然气勘探和生产市场今年预计将达到2.1万亿美元。</blockquote> Which Oil Companies Could Still Thrive<blockquote>哪些石油公司仍能蓬勃发展</blockquote> Potentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.<blockquote>随着电动汽车蚕食其化石燃料业务，实现转型的潜在赢家包括壳牌。</blockquote> “I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”<blockquote>“我喜欢壳牌——我相信他们从正确的角度看待能源转型，”罗密欧说。“他们将自己视为提供低碳能源解决方案的能源中心。他们并不寻求拥有产能，而是计划通过可再生能源、碳信用额和其他补偿的组合向客户提供脱碳解决方案。”</blockquote> Edmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.<blockquote>埃德蒙兹的考德威尔认为，尽管各州和国家最近采取行动限制未来几十年新型汽油动力汽车的销售，但传统石油和天然气公司仍有一定的持久力。</blockquote> “Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.<blockquote>“汽油动力汽车不会在一夜之间消失。禁令针对的是新车销售，而不是汽油动力汽车的所有权。我认为石油和天然气行业将有一个很长的转变窗口。这不是一个翻转开关，他们就走了，”考德威尔说。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks\">The Street</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BP":"英国石油","NSANY":"日产汽车","RDS.A":"荷兰皇家壳牌石油A类股","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/what-growing-ascendance-of-evs-means-for-oil-and-gas-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170018171","content_text":"As Tesla and other carmakers ramp up the number of EVs on the road, oil and gas companies are trying out a host of strategies to compensate.\n\nElectric vehicles (EVs) are poised to run over the oil and gas industry -- at least that’s what it seems like at first glance.\nBy 2050, the vast majority of transport vehicles on the road across the globe are expected to be electric, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). And the transportation industry contributes roughly half of all the business for integrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process from exploration to production to refining, according to Giacomo Romeo, integrated oil and gas analyst with Jefferies Group.\nElectric passenger vehicles such as the Tesla (TSLA) -Get Report Model 3, Nissan’s (NSANY) Leaf, Hyundai’s (HYMTF) Kona Electric and others are expected to account for 86% of all passenger vehicles on the road by 2050,up dramaticallyfrom just 1% last year. Meanwhile, electric vans are expected to soar to 84% of all vans from 0% last year, while 79% of buses and 59% of heavy trucks will be electric, up from 2% and 0%, respectively, according to IEA’s report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector.”\nCatalysts driving this growth in the U.S. are expected to come from car manufacturers increasing both the total number of electric vehicles and the number of models they offer, government agencies offering incentives to consumers to purchase electric vehicles and support from President Biden to increase the use of electric vehicles, according to Edmunds. The automotive research firm released a report this year that found the U.S. electric vehicle market is on track to post record sales this year, with EVs expected to represent 2.5% of U.S. vehicle sales this year, up from 1.9% in 2020.\n“Price and choice of models are the biggest barriers to buying EVs for consumers,” said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights for Edmunds. “You always pay more for EVs and once people start shopping for a car, they start with the intent of buying an EV, but when they begin to compare they see they can get a bigger one with more features than an EV. People equate bigger with better and think it’s a nicer car and more worthy.\"\nRecently, consumers’ preference hasswung to larger vehiclesand those tend to be gas-powered. But this year, for the first time, consumers will have the option of purchasing electric trucks, which expands the consumer EV categories beyond just passenger cars and SUVs, Caldwell noted.\nBy 2030, EV sales worldwide are expected to reach 31.1 million and represent approximately 32% of all new car sales, up from 2.5 million EVs sold last year, according to Deloitte Insights’ “Electric Vehicles Setting a Course for 2030” report.\nHowever, oil and gas companies, especially Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) -Get Report and British Petroleum (BP ADR), likely won't go the way of the dinosaurs as demand for their fossil fuels takes a deep dive, analysts say.\n“I’m not sure the transportation industry will get to 100% EV,” said Jamie Hamilton, director and leader in the UK automotive sector strategy and operations for Deloitte. “Passenger cars may get there in the next five to 10 years depending on prices coming down and charging infrastructure rollouts, but freight and heavy vehicles may not” due to their weight.\nDinosaurs Learn a New Dance\nThe oil and gas industry is exploring a number of workarounds to avoid the financial hit from a potential decline in oil and gas demand brought on by electric vehicles. They received a taste of what a big dip in transportation demand would look like when COVID-19 hit and people hunkered down at home versus heading into the office or traveling.\n“Most of the oil and gas industry already had an eye on the changes going on in the larger market for some time, so the growth of EVs is not a surprise. But with the decline in driving and commuting with COVID, this was more stark than people predicted,” said Kate Hardin, executive director of Deloitte Energy, Resources and Industrials research center. “That took commuting down by 40% to 50% in some communities.”\nHardin said there has been a lot of discussion among large oil and gas companies to explore new business models, such as developing solar energy, battery technology and energy storage.\nMany fossil fuel companies are investing in power generation, such as renewable energy including solar and wind, Romeo said. Currently, the oil and gas industry is investing 15% of its total capital into power generation, and that is expected to increase to 25% after 2025.\nHowever, the power generation business has returns of 10% at best, while the downstream business of refining fossil fuels has returns of 10% to 15% and the upstream business of extracting and producing the fuels about 20%, Romeo said. While the oil and gas business generally has higher returns, Rome said it is also far more volatile than the power generation business.\nAdditionally, the cost of capital for the oil and gas business is higher than that for the renewables industry, due to increasing environmental, social and governance (ESG)- related concerns in the oil and gas business, and declining interest from investors.\n“There is always a balance that has to be weighed,” Romeo said.\nOne-Stop Shop Strategy\nThe larger oil and gas companies are also evaluating the design and use of their retail gas stations as consumers’ needs and behavior are expected to change.\nCompanies with a large network of gas stations are considering transitioning them to EV charging stations, and those that have convenience stores as part of their stations expect to make even more money off of them once they are converted. That’s because charging an EV typically takes significantly longer than filling an internal combustion engine vehicle with gas.\nCompanies in Europe and the U.S. actually get more revenue from their non-fuel business at their retail stations than they do from fuel, Romeo said.\n“Oil companies see [that] as people charge their cars, they will spend more time in retail stores drinking coffee, shopping for groceries,” Romeo said. “BP and Shell are already talking about this.”\nHowever, people will also be using retail charging stations less often because they can charge their cars at home, at work or at other places that have charging stations.\nOther Survival Strategies\nBiofuels, which are produced from organic material such as corn, other vegetables and animal fats, are another area that oil and gas companies are exploring. For the aviation industry, biofuel is currently being mixed in with traditional jet fuel, but Boeing BA, for example, plans to fly its fleet using 100% biofuel by 2030, according to Reuters.\nBiofuels have high returns on investment too, Romeo noted. One company, Finland-based Neste (OTC: NTOIY), recently moved away from traditional refining to become the world’s largest renewable diesel producer, generating 30% returns compared to 12% for its traditional refining business.\nIntegrated oil and gas companies, which handle all three aspects of the process including exploration, production and refining, are also investing in hydrogen and batteries. Because renewable energy sources such as solar and wind do not provide a constant stream of energy, the energy they generate needs to be stored in either hydrogen or batteries for later use.\nStoring energy can be profitable since it allows companies like Shell and British Petroleum to act as energy traders that leverage supply and demand. Shell, for example, plans to increase its power trading business from 255 Terawatts per hour (TWh) now to 560TWh in 2030, Romeo said.\nThe battery energy storage market is expected to reach $19.7 billion by 2027, according to Fortune Business Insights. However, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the global oil and gas exploration and production market, which is expected to reach an estimated $2.1 trillion this year, according to IBISWorld.\nWhich Oil Companies Could Still Thrive\nPotentialwinners in making the transitionas electric vehicles eat into their fossil fuel business include Shell.\n“I like Shell -- I believe they see energy transition from the right angle,” Romeo said. “They view themselves as an energy center that delivers lower-carbon energy solutions. They don’t seek to own capacity but instead, they plan to deliver de-carbonization solutions to their customers via a combination of renewable power, carbon credits, and other offsets.”\nEdmunds’ Caldwell believes the traditional oil and gas companies have some staying power, despite recent moves by states and nations to limit the sale of new gas-powered vehicles over the next several decades.\n“Gas-powered vehicles are not going away overnight. The bans are on new vehicle sales and not ownership of gas-powered vehicles. I think there will be a long window for the oil and gas industries to pivot. It is not a flip of the switch and they’re gone,” Caldwell said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NSANY":0.9,"HYMTF":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"BP":0.9,"RDS.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2656,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":29,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/128598039"}