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2021-07-14
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Goldman Says Economic Impact From Delta Will Likely Be "Modest"<blockquote>高盛表示达美航空的经济影响可能“温和”</blockquote>
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Goldman offered an updated chart detailing the spread of the virus in the UK.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态在过去一周没有太大变化，尽管新病例的速度急剧加快。高盛提供了一份最新图表，详细说明了该病毒在英国的传播情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f0161719cbaf7dcb67da1c357220c05\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"322\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In their latest note, the Goldman team assesses the potential economic fallout should the US experience a surge in new cases on par with what the UK has recorded over the past few weeks as PM Boris Johnson prepares to lift the last restrictions in place in England.</p><p><blockquote>高盛团队在最新报告中评估了随着英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)准备取消英国最后的限制，如果美国新增病例激增，与英国过去几周的记录相当，可能会产生的经济影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d52749e3c51d37cbcf3063f9ae0fec4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"321\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Their conclusion? Any economic fallout from Delta would likely be modest. First, high vaccination rates will provide protection against severe infections and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>他们的结论？达美航空的任何经济影响都可能不大。首先，高疫苗接种率将提供预防严重感染和死亡的保护。</blockquote></p><p> Second, consumer activity in the UK saw a negligible dip over the past several weeks and survey suggest consumers haven't meaningfully pared back consumption or riskier activities like dining out.</p><p><blockquote>其次，过去几周英国的消费者活动下降幅度可以忽略不计，调查显示消费者并没有大幅减少消费或外出就餐等风险较高的活动。</blockquote></p><p> And finally, high-frequency measures of consumer spending and restaurant bookings in the US have responded very little to new virus cases.</p><p><blockquote>最后，美国消费者支出和餐厅预订的高频指标对新病毒病例反应甚微。</blockquote></p><p> While the US media has focused almost obsessively on the small number of states where vaccination numbers have trailed, the fact remains that the US has seen vaccination rates rise rapidly since last winter, making it one of the most heavily vaxxed countries in the world (outside Israel).</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国媒体几乎痴迷地关注疫苗接种数量落后的少数州，但事实仍然是，自去年冬天以来，美国的疫苗接种率迅速上升，使其成为世界上疫苗接种最严重的国家之一（以色列以外）。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the economic effects of a viral resurgence are likely to be mild, with only the most virus-sensitive sectors, like international travel, likely to be impacted.</p><p><blockquote>因此，病毒卷土重来的经济影响可能是温和的，只有对病毒最敏感的行业，如国际旅行，可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, UK surveys of consumer behavior show little change during the month of June.</p><p><blockquote>此外，英国对消费者行为的调查显示，6月份几乎没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e069ffe469452921b04d2f6113d8c0\" tg-width=\"701\" tg-height=\"298\">As it turns out, changes in the rate of spread haven't shown much correlation to consumer spending so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，今年到目前为止，利差率的变化与消费者支出没有太大相关性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10bda153f78e9eddf55a2c7811c81d41\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman team dug deep on this. Goldman even regressed city-level restaurant bookings (an increasingly popular data set from OpenTable) on the same levels of pandemic severity from June through early July and found no significant relationships.</p><p><blockquote>高盛团队对此进行了深入研究。高盛甚至回归了6月至7月初相同疫情严重程度的城市级餐厅预订量（OpenTable越来越受欢迎的数据集），发现没有显着关系。</blockquote></p><p> While it's possible economic data could see a more intense decrease should COVID numbers rise dramatically, from what economists have been able to glean from the data so far, the impact from Delta will likely be modest, if not mild.</p><p><blockquote>虽然如果新冠肺炎人数大幅上升，经济数据可能会出现更剧烈的下降，但从经济学家迄今为止从数据中收集的信息来看，达美航空的影响即使不是轻微，也可能是温和的。</blockquote></p><p> Delta is believed to be twice as transmissible as the original strain that caused last spring's first wave. This would suggest that the immunity threshold would be 80% to 85%.</p><p><blockquote>Delta被认为是导致去年春天第一波疫情的原始菌株的两倍。这将表明免疫阈值将是80%至85%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Says Economic Impact From Delta Will Likely Be \"Modest\"<blockquote>高盛表示达美航空的经济影响可能“温和”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says Economic Impact From Delta Will Likely Be \"Modest\"<blockquote>高盛表示达美航空的经济影响可能“温和”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 07:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Now that the Delta Variant is officially the fastest spreading COVID strain in the US, a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs who have been trying to forecast the impact of Delta on the global economy declared last week that emerging economies with low vaccination rates are the most vulnerable to Delta-induced lockdowns andother economy-crushing containment measures.</p><p><blockquote>现在，德尔塔变异毒株正式成为美国传播最快的COVID菌株，高盛的一组分析师一直试图预测Delta对全球经济的影响，他们上周宣布，疫苗接种率低的新兴经济体最容易受到Delta引发的封锁和其他破坏经济的遏制措施的影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, in heavily vaccinated countries like the US and UK, the analysts pointed out a newfound discrepancy: while Delta is driving new cases higher in places where restrictions on movement and business have recently been lifted, the number of new hospitalizations and deaths have remained subdued, and shown little correlation with any rise in confirmed cases.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在美国和英国等大量接种疫苗的国家，分析师指出了一个新发现的差异：虽然达美航空在最近取消了行动和商业限制的地方推动了新病例的上升，但新住院和死亡人数仍然低迷，与确诊病例的增加几乎没有相关性。</blockquote></p><p> This dynamic hasn't changed much in the past week, even as the pace of new cases has accelerated dramatically. Goldman offered an updated chart detailing the spread of the virus in the UK.</p><p><blockquote>这种动态在过去一周没有太大变化，尽管新病例的速度急剧加快。高盛提供了一份最新图表，详细说明了该病毒在英国的传播情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f0161719cbaf7dcb67da1c357220c05\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"322\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In their latest note, the Goldman team assesses the potential economic fallout should the US experience a surge in new cases on par with what the UK has recorded over the past few weeks as PM Boris Johnson prepares to lift the last restrictions in place in England.</p><p><blockquote>高盛团队在最新报告中评估了随着英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)准备取消英国最后的限制，如果美国新增病例激增，与英国过去几周的记录相当，可能会产生的经济影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d52749e3c51d37cbcf3063f9ae0fec4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"321\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Their conclusion? Any economic fallout from Delta would likely be modest. First, high vaccination rates will provide protection against severe infections and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>他们的结论？达美航空的任何经济影响都可能不大。首先，高疫苗接种率将提供预防严重感染和死亡的保护。</blockquote></p><p> Second, consumer activity in the UK saw a negligible dip over the past several weeks and survey suggest consumers haven't meaningfully pared back consumption or riskier activities like dining out.</p><p><blockquote>其次，过去几周英国的消费者活动下降幅度可以忽略不计，调查显示消费者并没有大幅减少消费或外出就餐等风险较高的活动。</blockquote></p><p> And finally, high-frequency measures of consumer spending and restaurant bookings in the US have responded very little to new virus cases.</p><p><blockquote>最后，美国消费者支出和餐厅预订的高频指标对新病毒病例反应甚微。</blockquote></p><p> While the US media has focused almost obsessively on the small number of states where vaccination numbers have trailed, the fact remains that the US has seen vaccination rates rise rapidly since last winter, making it one of the most heavily vaxxed countries in the world (outside Israel).</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国媒体几乎痴迷地关注疫苗接种数量落后的少数州，但事实仍然是，自去年冬天以来，美国的疫苗接种率迅速上升，使其成为世界上疫苗接种最严重的国家之一（以色列以外）。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the economic effects of a viral resurgence are likely to be mild, with only the most virus-sensitive sectors, like international travel, likely to be impacted.</p><p><blockquote>因此，病毒卷土重来的经济影响可能是温和的，只有对病毒最敏感的行业，如国际旅行，可能会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, UK surveys of consumer behavior show little change during the month of June.</p><p><blockquote>此外，英国对消费者行为的调查显示，6月份几乎没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e069ffe469452921b04d2f6113d8c0\" tg-width=\"701\" tg-height=\"298\">As it turns out, changes in the rate of spread haven't shown much correlation to consumer spending so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，今年到目前为止，利差率的变化与消费者支出没有太大相关性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10bda153f78e9eddf55a2c7811c81d41\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman team dug deep on this. Goldman even regressed city-level restaurant bookings (an increasingly popular data set from OpenTable) on the same levels of pandemic severity from June through early July and found no significant relationships.</p><p><blockquote>高盛团队对此进行了深入研究。高盛甚至回归了6月至7月初相同疫情严重程度的城市级餐厅预订量（OpenTable越来越受欢迎的数据集），发现没有显着关系。</blockquote></p><p> While it's possible economic data could see a more intense decrease should COVID numbers rise dramatically, from what economists have been able to glean from the data so far, the impact from Delta will likely be modest, if not mild.</p><p><blockquote>虽然如果新冠肺炎人数大幅上升，经济数据可能会出现更剧烈的下降，但从经济学家迄今为止从数据中收集的信息来看，达美航空的影响即使不是轻微，也可能是温和的。</blockquote></p><p> Delta is believed to be twice as transmissible as the original strain that caused last spring's first wave. This would suggest that the immunity threshold would be 80% to 85%.</p><p><blockquote>Delta被认为是导致去年春天第一波疫情的原始菌株的两倍。这将表明免疫阈值将是80%至85%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/goldman-says-economic-impact-delta-will-likely-be-modest\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/goldman-says-economic-impact-delta-will-likely-be-modest","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116126854","content_text":"Now that the Delta Variant is officially the fastest spreading COVID strain in the US, a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs who have been trying to forecast the impact of Delta on the global economy declared last week that emerging economies with low vaccination rates are the most vulnerable to Delta-induced lockdowns andother economy-crushing containment measures.\nHowever, in heavily vaccinated countries like the US and UK, the analysts pointed out a newfound discrepancy: while Delta is driving new cases higher in places where restrictions on movement and business have recently been lifted, the number of new hospitalizations and deaths have remained subdued, and shown little correlation with any rise in confirmed cases.\nThis dynamic hasn't changed much in the past week, even as the pace of new cases has accelerated dramatically. Goldman offered an updated chart detailing the spread of the virus in the UK.\n\nIn their latest note, the Goldman team assesses the potential economic fallout should the US experience a surge in new cases on par with what the UK has recorded over the past few weeks as PM Boris Johnson prepares to lift the last restrictions in place in England.\n\nTheir conclusion? Any economic fallout from Delta would likely be modest. First, high vaccination rates will provide protection against severe infections and deaths.\nSecond, consumer activity in the UK saw a negligible dip over the past several weeks and survey suggest consumers haven't meaningfully pared back consumption or riskier activities like dining out.\nAnd finally, high-frequency measures of consumer spending and restaurant bookings in the US have responded very little to new virus cases.\nWhile the US media has focused almost obsessively on the small number of states where vaccination numbers have trailed, the fact remains that the US has seen vaccination rates rise rapidly since last winter, making it one of the most heavily vaxxed countries in the world (outside Israel).\nAs a result, the economic effects of a viral resurgence are likely to be mild, with only the most virus-sensitive sectors, like international travel, likely to be impacted.\nWhat's more, UK surveys of consumer behavior show little change during the month of June.\nAs it turns out, changes in the rate of spread haven't shown much correlation to consumer spending so far this year.\n\nThe Goldman team dug deep on this. Goldman even regressed city-level restaurant bookings (an increasingly popular data set from OpenTable) on the same levels of pandemic severity from June through early July and found no significant relationships.\nWhile it's possible economic data could see a more intense decrease should COVID numbers rise dramatically, from what economists have been able to glean from the data so far, the impact from Delta will likely be modest, if not mild.\nDelta is believed to be twice as transmissible as the original strain that caused last spring's first wave. This would suggest that the immunity threshold would be 80% to 85%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/145661819"}
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