心投资
2021-07-03
NIO will continue to grow in the next half of 2021
NIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来的增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote>
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Impressive delivery rates for the month of June show that the market may underestimate NIO's growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）正在从大流行导致的芯片供应短缺中迅速反弹，电动汽车交付量激增就是证明。6月份令人印象深刻的交付率表明市场可能低估了蔚来的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shipping volumes are accelerating</b></p><p><blockquote><b>出货量正在加速</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO guided for lower production volumes in the second quarter due to the global chip and battery supply shortage. The shortage was set to reduce NIO's factory output from 10,000 vehicles to 7,500 vehicles a month.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球芯片和电池供应短缺，蔚来预计第二季度产量将下降。此次短缺将使蔚来工厂的产量从每月10,000辆减少到7,500辆。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people started to work from home, a sharp increase in demand for semiconductors from the consumer electronics industry coincided with a faster than anticipated rebound in chip demand from the auto industry, leading to a global shortage in semiconductors that is throttling auto production from the US to China. NIO's guidance for lower factory output has lowered delivery expectations but a return to triple-digit growth rates may now push NIO's stock higher again.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体供应短缺的根源在于COVID-19大流行。随着越来越多的人开始在家工作，消费电子行业对半导体的需求急剧增加，而汽车行业的芯片需求反弹速度快于预期，导致全球半导体短缺，抑制了美国到中国的汽车生产。蔚来对工厂产出下降的指导降低了交付预期，但恢复三位数的增长率现在可能会推动蔚来股价再次走高。</blockquote></p><p> While the temporary production drop was a setback for NIO, it seems that the electric vehicle maker is ready to bounce back.NIO's June deliveries were nothing short of impressive and the market may underestimate NIO's ability to grow EV deliveries at triple digits this year. The Chinese EV maker delivered a total 8,083 vehicles in June, bringing the Q2'21 total to 21,896 EVs consisting of all models… NIO's 5-seater electric SUV ES6, the 5-seater electric coupe SUV EC6 and the 6-seater or 7-seater electric SUV ES8. NIO's monthly and quarterly delivery totals hit records in the second quarter and the EV maker is set to reach new records for the rest of the year. Total June deliveries saw 116% growth Y/Y with the largest growth coming from the ES6 model. The ES6 category saw 52% growth Y/Y. Total deliveries for Q2'21 were 21,896, most of which were ES6s, showing growth of 112% Y/Y… and that's despite production problems in the second quarter. Comparable figures for the EC6 are not available since deliveries for this model only began after the second quarter last year. What stands out from NIO's June delivery report is that shipping growth is speeding up compared to the previous month, which may be seen as a sign that NIO's delivery capabilities are undervalued. In May, NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles which is equivalent to a Y/Y growth rate of 95%. Strong delivery numbers for the month of June may be a cue that NIO's production problems are easing and that NIO is ready to return to full production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>虽然暂时的产量下降对蔚来来说是一个挫折，但这家电动汽车制造商似乎已准备好反弹。蔚来6月份的交付量令人印象深刻，市场可能低估了蔚来今年电动汽车交付量以三位数增长的能力。这家中国电动汽车制造商在6月份共交付了8,083辆汽车，使21年第二季度的电动汽车总数达到21,896辆，包括所有车型……蔚来的5座电动SUV ES6、5座电动轿跑车SUV EC6和6座或7座电动SUV ES8。蔚来第二季度的月度和季度交付总量创下纪录，这家电动汽车制造商将在今年剩余时间内创下新纪录。6月份总交付量同比增长116%，其中ES6车型增长最大。ES6类别同比增长52%。21年第二季度的总交付量为21,896辆，其中大部分是ES6，同比增长112%……尽管第二季度出现了生产问题。EC6的可比数据不可用，因为该车型在去年第二季度之后才开始交付。蔚来6月交付报告中值得注意的是，与上个月相比，航运增长正在加快，这可能被视为蔚来交付能力被低估的迹象。5月份，蔚来交付汽车6,711辆，同比增长率为95%。6月份强劲的交付数据可能表明蔚来的生产问题正在缓解，蔚来已准备好恢复满负荷产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af76b71f8259337d534fb29b1a6a8c4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"129\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles which the EV maker is not fully utilizing due to the semiconductor shortage. As soon as the chip shortage eases, which can be expected to be the case in the second half of the year, we should see a steady ramp up in NIO's factory output and deliveries. The speed of the ramp up will depend less on demand but rather on the severity of the supply shortage. The semiconductor shortage is a primary risk factor that will impact NIO's delivery success in the remaining two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的年产能为15万辆汽车，但由于半导体短缺，该电动汽车制造商并未充分利用该产能。一旦芯片短缺问题得到缓解（预计下半年的情况），我们应该会看到蔚来工厂产量和交付量稳步上升。增长的速度将不太取决于需求，而是取决于供应短缺的严重程度。半导体短缺是影响蔚来在剩余两个季度交付成功的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> The market for electric vehicles is very resilient in China and demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles is not going away due to delays in production, which may be a sort of luxury problem for Chinese EV makers. NIO's EV sales in China have surged this year, but the second half of the year may see even faster growth as the industry works through the supply problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国的电动汽车市场非常有弹性，对零排放乘用车的需求不会因为生产延迟而消失，这对中国电动汽车制造商来说可能是一种奢侈问题。蔚来今年在华电动汽车销量激增，但随着该行业解决供应问题，下半年可能会出现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7579fc2abe7ca63887e68a9256b54cb3\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> XPeng (XPEV), another Chinese electric vehicle maker,delivered 6,565 Smart EVs in June 2021, representing growth of 617% Y/Y. XPeng sold 4,730 electric sport sedans and 1,835 compact SUVs last month, more than ever before. In Q2'21, XPeng delivered 17,398 deliveries, representing 439% growth Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>另一家中国电动汽车制造商小鹏汽车(XPEV)于2021年6月交付了6,565辆智能电动汽车，同比增长617%。小鹏汽车上个月售出了4,730辆电动运动轿车和1,835辆紧凑型SUV，比以往任何时候都多。21年第二季度，小鹏汽车交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's EV sales in China are also soaring showing strong demand and customer uptake of EV vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在中国的电动汽车销量也在飙升，显示出电动汽车的强劲需求和客户接受度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8cd25b4fd64f193bc91dabbee99e54\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>NIO FY 2021 delivery projections</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来2021财年交付预测</b></blockquote></p><p> My estimates for Q3'21 and Q4'21 deliveries are shown in the graph below and assume a ramp up especially in NIO's ES6 delivery capability and a continual escalation to a quarterly output of 30,000 vehicles by year-end. A quarterly output volume of around 30,000 cars by year-end is realistic to achieve and NIO would still be operating 20% below full production capacity. Calculating the delivery totals for Q1 and Q2 together with my estimates for Q3 and Q4 results in a total delivery potential of 97,056 vehicles (across all three models) in FY 2021 and NIO may even be able to crack the 100,000 barrier if shipment volumes continue to accelerate at a strong rate in the last two quarters of the year. NIO delivered 43,728 vehicles in 2020 in total, so a 97,056 delivery estimate for 2021 implies 122% Y/Y growth. In the first six months of 2021, NIO already delivered 41,956 or 43% of my FY 2021 delivery estimate. As production returns to normal in the second half of the year, NIO should be able to create triple-digit delivery growth on a Y/Y basis.</p><p><blockquote>我对21年第3季度和21年第4季度交付量的估计如下图所示，并假设蔚来ES6交付能力将有所提高，并且到年底季度产量将持续升级至30,000辆。到年底实现约30,000辆汽车的季度产量是现实的，而蔚来的运营仍将比满负荷产能低20%。计算第一季度和第二季度的交付总量以及我对第三季度和第四季度的估计，2021财年的总交付潜力为97,056辆汽车（包括所有三种车型），如果出货量继续增长，蔚来甚至可能能够突破100,000辆大关今年最后两个季度以强劲的速度加速。蔚来在2020年总共交付了43,728辆汽车，因此2021年的交付量预计为97,056辆，意味着同比增长122%。2021年前六个月，蔚来已交付41,956辆，占我2021财年交付预期的43%。随着下半年生产恢复正常，蔚来应该能够创造三位数的同比交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb01be329ab1b6d9a6097e74a1d5b250\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"116\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's sales growth is cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的销售增长很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> EV makers are not cheap and that is because the market values sales and delivery growth more than anything. NIO trades at a P-S ratio of 9.4 and the valuation multiplier factor is not that much different from other EV makers. Compared against Tesla (TSLA), which trades at a P-S ratio of 9.9, NIO has more revaluation potential because it operates in a larger market and has a lower revenue base.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商的价格并不便宜，这是因为市场最看重销售和交付增长。蔚来的市盈率为9.4，估值乘数因素与其他电动汽车制造商没有太大区别。与市盈率为9.9的特斯拉(TSLA)相比，蔚来具有更大的重估潜力，因为它在更大的市场中运营且收入基础较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84e0cee1726c807b6b7d04f4f4e44f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The chip supply shortage is still a major risk factor for NIO and it will have an impact on NIO's Q3 and Q4 production output... which will be below potential. As conditions normalize slowly in the second half, NIO should be able to ramp up factory output and deliveries. While delivery growth rates are influenced by factors outside of NIO's operations, they also represent a big opportunity for NIO to surprise the market. Better than expected growth rates and a fast return to full production could create fertile ground for stock price appreciation.</p><p><blockquote>芯片供应短缺仍然是蔚来的一个主要风险因素，它将对蔚来第三季度和第四季度的产量产生影响...这将低于电位。随着下半年情况慢慢正常化，蔚来应该能够提高工厂产量和交付量。虽然交付增长率受到蔚来运营之外因素的影响，但它们也代表着蔚来给市场带来惊喜的巨大机会。好于预期的增长率和快速恢复全面生产可能会为股价升值创造沃土。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO may be growing faster than expected in 2021 as the chip supply shortage eases and a strong rebound in the second half of the year could push NIO to hit the critical 100,000 annual delivery milestone. Demand for EVs remained strong in 2021 and Chinese EV makers are killing it. I believe 120% Y/Y growth in annual deliveries is possible in 2021 as factory output normalizes in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>随着芯片供应短缺的缓解，蔚来在2021年的增长速度可能会快于预期，下半年的强劲反弹可能会推动蔚来达到关键的10万辆年交付里程碑。2021年电动汽车需求依然强劲，而中国电动汽车制造商正在扼杀这一需求。我相信，随着下半年工厂产出正常化，2021年全年交付量有可能同比增长120%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来的增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来的增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 23:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.</li> <li>The Chinese EV maker returned to triple-digit delivery growth last month, helped by strong Y/Y growth in NIO’s flagship model ES6.</li> <li>NIO is set to overcome production setbacks and ramp up production in the second half of 2021.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ca537373e278344c3447309dd586ea\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来6月份的交付量以令人印象深刻的速度增长。</li><li>得益于蔚来旗舰车型ES6的强劲同比增长，这家中国电动汽车制造商上个月的交付量恢复了三位数增长。</li><li>蔚来将克服生产挫折，并在2021年下半年提高产量。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO (NIO) is rebounding fast from the pandemic-driven chip supply shortage and the proof is in surging EV deliveries. Impressive delivery rates for the month of June show that the market may underestimate NIO's growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）正在从大流行导致的芯片供应短缺中迅速反弹，电动汽车交付量激增就是证明。6月份令人印象深刻的交付率表明市场可能低估了蔚来的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shipping volumes are accelerating</b></p><p><blockquote><b>出货量正在加速</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO guided for lower production volumes in the second quarter due to the global chip and battery supply shortage. The shortage was set to reduce NIO's factory output from 10,000 vehicles to 7,500 vehicles a month.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球芯片和电池供应短缺，蔚来预计第二季度产量将下降。此次短缺将使蔚来工厂的产量从每月10,000辆减少到7,500辆。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people started to work from home, a sharp increase in demand for semiconductors from the consumer electronics industry coincided with a faster than anticipated rebound in chip demand from the auto industry, leading to a global shortage in semiconductors that is throttling auto production from the US to China. NIO's guidance for lower factory output has lowered delivery expectations but a return to triple-digit growth rates may now push NIO's stock higher again.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体供应短缺的根源在于COVID-19大流行。随着越来越多的人开始在家工作，消费电子行业对半导体的需求急剧增加，而汽车行业的芯片需求反弹速度快于预期，导致全球半导体短缺，抑制了美国到中国的汽车生产。蔚来对工厂产出下降的指导降低了交付预期，但恢复三位数的增长率现在可能会推动蔚来股价再次走高。</blockquote></p><p> While the temporary production drop was a setback for NIO, it seems that the electric vehicle maker is ready to bounce back.NIO's June deliveries were nothing short of impressive and the market may underestimate NIO's ability to grow EV deliveries at triple digits this year. The Chinese EV maker delivered a total 8,083 vehicles in June, bringing the Q2'21 total to 21,896 EVs consisting of all models… NIO's 5-seater electric SUV ES6, the 5-seater electric coupe SUV EC6 and the 6-seater or 7-seater electric SUV ES8. NIO's monthly and quarterly delivery totals hit records in the second quarter and the EV maker is set to reach new records for the rest of the year. Total June deliveries saw 116% growth Y/Y with the largest growth coming from the ES6 model. The ES6 category saw 52% growth Y/Y. Total deliveries for Q2'21 were 21,896, most of which were ES6s, showing growth of 112% Y/Y… and that's despite production problems in the second quarter. Comparable figures for the EC6 are not available since deliveries for this model only began after the second quarter last year. What stands out from NIO's June delivery report is that shipping growth is speeding up compared to the previous month, which may be seen as a sign that NIO's delivery capabilities are undervalued. In May, NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles which is equivalent to a Y/Y growth rate of 95%. Strong delivery numbers for the month of June may be a cue that NIO's production problems are easing and that NIO is ready to return to full production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>虽然暂时的产量下降对蔚来来说是一个挫折，但这家电动汽车制造商似乎已准备好反弹。蔚来6月份的交付量令人印象深刻，市场可能低估了蔚来今年电动汽车交付量以三位数增长的能力。这家中国电动汽车制造商在6月份共交付了8,083辆汽车，使21年第二季度的电动汽车总数达到21,896辆，包括所有车型……蔚来的5座电动SUV ES6、5座电动轿跑车SUV EC6和6座或7座电动SUV ES8。蔚来第二季度的月度和季度交付总量创下纪录，这家电动汽车制造商将在今年剩余时间内创下新纪录。6月份总交付量同比增长116%，其中ES6车型增长最大。ES6类别同比增长52%。21年第二季度的总交付量为21,896辆，其中大部分是ES6，同比增长112%……尽管第二季度出现了生产问题。EC6的可比数据不可用，因为该车型在去年第二季度之后才开始交付。蔚来6月交付报告中值得注意的是，与上个月相比，航运增长正在加快，这可能被视为蔚来交付能力被低估的迹象。5月份，蔚来交付汽车6,711辆，同比增长率为95%。6月份强劲的交付数据可能表明蔚来的生产问题正在缓解，蔚来已准备好恢复满负荷产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af76b71f8259337d534fb29b1a6a8c4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"129\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles which the EV maker is not fully utilizing due to the semiconductor shortage. As soon as the chip shortage eases, which can be expected to be the case in the second half of the year, we should see a steady ramp up in NIO's factory output and deliveries. The speed of the ramp up will depend less on demand but rather on the severity of the supply shortage. The semiconductor shortage is a primary risk factor that will impact NIO's delivery success in the remaining two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的年产能为15万辆汽车，但由于半导体短缺，该电动汽车制造商并未充分利用该产能。一旦芯片短缺问题得到缓解（预计下半年的情况），我们应该会看到蔚来工厂产量和交付量稳步上升。增长的速度将不太取决于需求，而是取决于供应短缺的严重程度。半导体短缺是影响蔚来在剩余两个季度交付成功的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> The market for electric vehicles is very resilient in China and demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles is not going away due to delays in production, which may be a sort of luxury problem for Chinese EV makers. NIO's EV sales in China have surged this year, but the second half of the year may see even faster growth as the industry works through the supply problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国的电动汽车市场非常有弹性，对零排放乘用车的需求不会因为生产延迟而消失，这对中国电动汽车制造商来说可能是一种奢侈问题。蔚来今年在华电动汽车销量激增，但随着该行业解决供应问题，下半年可能会出现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7579fc2abe7ca63887e68a9256b54cb3\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> XPeng (XPEV), another Chinese electric vehicle maker,delivered 6,565 Smart EVs in June 2021, representing growth of 617% Y/Y. XPeng sold 4,730 electric sport sedans and 1,835 compact SUVs last month, more than ever before. In Q2'21, XPeng delivered 17,398 deliveries, representing 439% growth Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>另一家中国电动汽车制造商小鹏汽车(XPEV)于2021年6月交付了6,565辆智能电动汽车，同比增长617%。小鹏汽车上个月售出了4,730辆电动运动轿车和1,835辆紧凑型SUV，比以往任何时候都多。21年第二季度，小鹏汽车交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's EV sales in China are also soaring showing strong demand and customer uptake of EV vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在中国的电动汽车销量也在飙升，显示出电动汽车的强劲需求和客户接受度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8cd25b4fd64f193bc91dabbee99e54\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>NIO FY 2021 delivery projections</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来2021财年交付预测</b></blockquote></p><p> My estimates for Q3'21 and Q4'21 deliveries are shown in the graph below and assume a ramp up especially in NIO's ES6 delivery capability and a continual escalation to a quarterly output of 30,000 vehicles by year-end. A quarterly output volume of around 30,000 cars by year-end is realistic to achieve and NIO would still be operating 20% below full production capacity. Calculating the delivery totals for Q1 and Q2 together with my estimates for Q3 and Q4 results in a total delivery potential of 97,056 vehicles (across all three models) in FY 2021 and NIO may even be able to crack the 100,000 barrier if shipment volumes continue to accelerate at a strong rate in the last two quarters of the year. NIO delivered 43,728 vehicles in 2020 in total, so a 97,056 delivery estimate for 2021 implies 122% Y/Y growth. In the first six months of 2021, NIO already delivered 41,956 or 43% of my FY 2021 delivery estimate. As production returns to normal in the second half of the year, NIO should be able to create triple-digit delivery growth on a Y/Y basis.</p><p><blockquote>我对21年第3季度和21年第4季度交付量的估计如下图所示，并假设蔚来ES6交付能力将有所提高，并且到年底季度产量将持续升级至30,000辆。到年底实现约30,000辆汽车的季度产量是现实的，而蔚来的运营仍将比满负荷产能低20%。计算第一季度和第二季度的交付总量以及我对第三季度和第四季度的估计，2021财年的总交付潜力为97,056辆汽车（包括所有三种车型），如果出货量继续增长，蔚来甚至可能能够突破100,000辆大关今年最后两个季度以强劲的速度加速。蔚来在2020年总共交付了43,728辆汽车，因此2021年的交付量预计为97,056辆，意味着同比增长122%。2021年前六个月，蔚来已交付41,956辆，占我2021财年交付预期的43%。随着下半年生产恢复正常，蔚来应该能够创造三位数的同比交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb01be329ab1b6d9a6097e74a1d5b250\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"116\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's sales growth is cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的销售增长很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> EV makers are not cheap and that is because the market values sales and delivery growth more than anything. NIO trades at a P-S ratio of 9.4 and the valuation multiplier factor is not that much different from other EV makers. Compared against Tesla (TSLA), which trades at a P-S ratio of 9.9, NIO has more revaluation potential because it operates in a larger market and has a lower revenue base.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商的价格并不便宜，这是因为市场最看重销售和交付增长。蔚来的市盈率为9.4，估值乘数因素与其他电动汽车制造商没有太大区别。与市盈率为9.9的特斯拉(TSLA)相比，蔚来具有更大的重估潜力，因为它在更大的市场中运营且收入基础较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84e0cee1726c807b6b7d04f4f4e44f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The chip supply shortage is still a major risk factor for NIO and it will have an impact on NIO's Q3 and Q4 production output... which will be below potential. As conditions normalize slowly in the second half, NIO should be able to ramp up factory output and deliveries. While delivery growth rates are influenced by factors outside of NIO's operations, they also represent a big opportunity for NIO to surprise the market. Better than expected growth rates and a fast return to full production could create fertile ground for stock price appreciation.</p><p><blockquote>芯片供应短缺仍然是蔚来的一个主要风险因素，它将对蔚来第三季度和第四季度的产量产生影响...这将低于电位。随着下半年情况慢慢正常化，蔚来应该能够提高工厂产量和交付量。虽然交付增长率受到蔚来运营之外因素的影响，但它们也代表着蔚来给市场带来惊喜的巨大机会。好于预期的增长率和快速恢复全面生产可能会为股价升值创造沃土。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO may be growing faster than expected in 2021 as the chip supply shortage eases and a strong rebound in the second half of the year could push NIO to hit the critical 100,000 annual delivery milestone. Demand for EVs remained strong in 2021 and Chinese EV makers are killing it. I believe 120% Y/Y growth in annual deliveries is possible in 2021 as factory output normalizes in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>随着芯片供应短缺的缓解，蔚来在2021年的增长速度可能会快于预期，下半年的强劲反弹可能会推动蔚来达到关键的10万辆年交付里程碑。2021年电动汽车需求依然强劲，而中国电动汽车制造商正在扼杀这一需求。我相信，随着下半年工厂产出正常化，2021年全年交付量有可能同比增长120%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437606-nio-may-grow-faster-than-expected\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437606-nio-may-grow-faster-than-expected","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120590567","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.\nThe Chinese EV maker returned to triple-digit delivery growth last month, helped by strong Y/Y growth in NIO’s flagship model ES6.\nNIO is set to overcome production setbacks and ramp up production in the second half of 2021.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nChinese electric vehicle maker NIO (NIO) is rebounding fast from the pandemic-driven chip supply shortage and the proof is in surging EV deliveries. Impressive delivery rates for the month of June show that the market may underestimate NIO's growth potential.\nShipping volumes are accelerating\nNIO guided for lower production volumes in the second quarter due to the global chip and battery supply shortage. The shortage was set to reduce NIO's factory output from 10,000 vehicles to 7,500 vehicles a month.\nThe global semiconductor supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people started to work from home, a sharp increase in demand for semiconductors from the consumer electronics industry coincided with a faster than anticipated rebound in chip demand from the auto industry, leading to a global shortage in semiconductors that is throttling auto production from the US to China. NIO's guidance for lower factory output has lowered delivery expectations but a return to triple-digit growth rates may now push NIO's stock higher again.\nWhile the temporary production drop was a setback for NIO, it seems that the electric vehicle maker is ready to bounce back.NIO's June deliveries were nothing short of impressive and the market may underestimate NIO's ability to grow EV deliveries at triple digits this year. The Chinese EV maker delivered a total 8,083 vehicles in June, bringing the Q2'21 total to 21,896 EVs consisting of all models… NIO's 5-seater electric SUV ES6, the 5-seater electric coupe SUV EC6 and the 6-seater or 7-seater electric SUV ES8. NIO's monthly and quarterly delivery totals hit records in the second quarter and the EV maker is set to reach new records for the rest of the year. Total June deliveries saw 116% growth Y/Y with the largest growth coming from the ES6 model. The ES6 category saw 52% growth Y/Y. Total deliveries for Q2'21 were 21,896, most of which were ES6s, showing growth of 112% Y/Y… and that's despite production problems in the second quarter. Comparable figures for the EC6 are not available since deliveries for this model only began after the second quarter last year. What stands out from NIO's June delivery report is that shipping growth is speeding up compared to the previous month, which may be seen as a sign that NIO's delivery capabilities are undervalued. In May, NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles which is equivalent to a Y/Y growth rate of 95%. Strong delivery numbers for the month of June may be a cue that NIO's production problems are easing and that NIO is ready to return to full production capacity.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles which the EV maker is not fully utilizing due to the semiconductor shortage. As soon as the chip shortage eases, which can be expected to be the case in the second half of the year, we should see a steady ramp up in NIO's factory output and deliveries. The speed of the ramp up will depend less on demand but rather on the severity of the supply shortage. The semiconductor shortage is a primary risk factor that will impact NIO's delivery success in the remaining two quarters.\nThe market for electric vehicles is very resilient in China and demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles is not going away due to delays in production, which may be a sort of luxury problem for Chinese EV makers. NIO's EV sales in China have surged this year, but the second half of the year may see even faster growth as the industry works through the supply problem.\n(Source:InsideEVs)\nXPeng (XPEV), another Chinese electric vehicle maker,delivered 6,565 Smart EVs in June 2021, representing growth of 617% Y/Y. XPeng sold 4,730 electric sport sedans and 1,835 compact SUVs last month, more than ever before. In Q2'21, XPeng delivered 17,398 deliveries, representing 439% growth Y/Y.\nXPeng's EV sales in China are also soaring showing strong demand and customer uptake of EV vehicles.\n(Source:InsideEVs)\nNIO FY 2021 delivery projections\nMy estimates for Q3'21 and Q4'21 deliveries are shown in the graph below and assume a ramp up especially in NIO's ES6 delivery capability and a continual escalation to a quarterly output of 30,000 vehicles by year-end. A quarterly output volume of around 30,000 cars by year-end is realistic to achieve and NIO would still be operating 20% below full production capacity. Calculating the delivery totals for Q1 and Q2 together with my estimates for Q3 and Q4 results in a total delivery potential of 97,056 vehicles (across all three models) in FY 2021 and NIO may even be able to crack the 100,000 barrier if shipment volumes continue to accelerate at a strong rate in the last two quarters of the year. NIO delivered 43,728 vehicles in 2020 in total, so a 97,056 delivery estimate for 2021 implies 122% Y/Y growth. In the first six months of 2021, NIO already delivered 41,956 or 43% of my FY 2021 delivery estimate. As production returns to normal in the second half of the year, NIO should be able to create triple-digit delivery growth on a Y/Y basis.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO's sales growth is cheap\nEV makers are not cheap and that is because the market values sales and delivery growth more than anything. NIO trades at a P-S ratio of 9.4 and the valuation multiplier factor is not that much different from other EV makers. Compared against Tesla (TSLA), which trades at a P-S ratio of 9.9, NIO has more revaluation potential because it operates in a larger market and has a lower revenue base.\nData by YCharts\nRisks\nThe chip supply shortage is still a major risk factor for NIO and it will have an impact on NIO's Q3 and Q4 production output... which will be below potential. As conditions normalize slowly in the second half, NIO should be able to ramp up factory output and deliveries. While delivery growth rates are influenced by factors outside of NIO's operations, they also represent a big opportunity for NIO to surprise the market. Better than expected growth rates and a fast return to full production could create fertile ground for stock price appreciation.\nFinal thoughts\nNIO may be growing faster than expected in 2021 as the chip supply shortage eases and a strong rebound in the second half of the year could push NIO to hit the critical 100,000 annual delivery milestone. Demand for EVs remained strong in 2021 and Chinese EV makers are killing it. I believe 120% Y/Y growth in annual deliveries is possible in 2021 as factory output normalizes in the second half of the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":40,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/152163658"}
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