Kukuku
2021-07-04
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Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>
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The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场都经历了一些疯狂的行情。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) , the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) , the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Half 2021: Market Forecasts, Thoughts and Observations<blockquote>2021年下半年：市场预测、思考与观察</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-04 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on. The stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (read<b>here</b>and<b>here</b>), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给我们带来了一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，还有一个需要关注的关键日期。过去18个月里，股市、大宗商品市场和固定收益市场都经历了一些疯狂的行情。我们早在1月份就撰写了2021年预测文章（阅读<b>在这里</b>和<b>在这里</b>），但随着大宗商品市场的上涨，油价走强，而市场其他领域正在降温，重新审视今年剩余时间的情况似乎是个好主意。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一些月度烛台图开始我们的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Candlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>烛台分析道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.</p><p><blockquote>在下面道琼斯工业平均指数（道琼斯）的月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格在过去十年中大幅上涨，自2020年3月以来涨幅非常大。在我们的方法上稍微自由一点，我们可以看到自2020年疫情低点以来，有8到10个历史新高的进展。请注意下图中12个月价格动量研究的步伐放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0c65a961cdf2a9b6bdba9757ca8c5d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的标普500指数（SPX）月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到过去10年的另一次大幅上涨。该指数在2015-2016年在2,000点至2,200点附近形成了横向盘整模式，我们在很大程度上从那里翻了一番。当SPX接近4,400点时，看到一些重大获利了结，我不会感到惊讶。这里的势头也在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a594dc06dc6364a1f4432334018a95\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克月度日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格比2018年和2019年在7,000点区域的盘整模式翻了一番。价格较2015-2016年5,000点左右的盘整上涨了近两倍。是的，动量研究正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a32c8a3b8cbd6d84dc3c316188d0714c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Russell 2000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>罗素2000</b></blockquote></p><p> In this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>在这张罗素2000指数(RUT)的月度烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较2020年3月的低点上涨了一倍多。这会让你大吃一惊。随着一串白色蜡烛和势头减弱，我们希望在第三季度前进时更加谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e2eb68915aa7fe3a35df2b5cca4c7c\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">All these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些图表（上图）都显示了8到10个创纪录的高点模式，因此我们应该警惕顶部反转模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Advance-Decline Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进退分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们把注意力转向涨跌线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Dow Jones Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯工业指数</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的道琼斯日线烛台图中，我们显示了自五月初以来一直横向移动的上涨-下跌线。价格走势之间的差异是看跌背离，但道琼斯是一个狭窄的平均值，只有30只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af49f53b61d7234c47302a43ef8fc54\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>S&P 500</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标普500</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the S&P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.</p><p><blockquote>在下面这张标普500及其上涨-下跌线的图表中，我们可以看到价格和上涨-下跌线向上，因此看跌背离尚未开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f76b13060f5ac582155923264b7fb2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的纳斯达克图表中，我们可以看到显着的看跌背离。纳斯达克一直在创出新高，但涨跌幅线自二月份以来一直横向走低。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c202ca833085d8ae21f804e01da1d20e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Nasdaq 100</b></p><p><blockquote><b>纳斯达克100</b></blockquote></p><p> In this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02f49df814666506de6bd3a8f8cff358\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Sectors</b></p><p><blockquote>在下面这张纳斯达克100指数及其涨跌幅线的图表中，我们看到价格和指标一起上涨。这里没有看跌背离。<b>部门</b></blockquote></p><p> The marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.<b>Energy</b>In this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>市场可以分为11个部分，但我今天只想介绍其中的一部分。<b>能源</b>在下面的标准普尔能源行业ETF(XLE)的周线烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点翻了一番。过去四个月，交易量非常大，每周余额交易量停滞不前。12周价格动量研究因看跌背离而减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7c0cb796bbdd57de9aba933c615ce\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度可能进一步上涨的两家能源公司是EOG Resources(EOG)和康菲石油公司(COP)。这是图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d2fc7721f85cac4b418a821156c714f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/874820e1c1c54a567c399f5129e88676\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc072387bc975d38d92af5b6b3de16ac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2822d20c835ce4f4860d5eb45212cb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLF) , the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>在下面金融板块ETF(XLF)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到价格已经开始见顶阶段。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。自6月初以来，平衡成交量线已走弱，移动平均线收敛背离(MACD)振荡器已跌破零线，发出直接卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddfbb55fad602b4a29ff4ef1ba47e0f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的科技行业ETF(XLK)的每周日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格较大流行低点上涨了一倍多。自2020年3月以来，交易量一直在减少，每周平衡交易量线在过去12个月中一直处于横盘趋势。底部面板中的12周价格动量研究显示，过去一年的高点较低。这是一个显着的看跌背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d9a652c4c72b421556bfbd90dd8d44\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Industrials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工业</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily bar chart of the (XLI) , the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.</p><p><blockquote>在下面工业板块ETF(XLI)的日线条形图中，我们可以看到疲软的情况。价格已跌破50日移动平均线。在过去的两个月里，平衡成交量线已经走弱，MACD振荡指标低于卖出区域的零线。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47838029e80d6b87a83abb9f1352bdaf\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"820\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bonds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债券</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.</p><p><blockquote>在下面的iShares 20+年期国债ETF(TLT)的每日点数图中，我们可以看到165美元区域的潜在上行目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587f7bae63415985c849540d27b7ffaa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>U.S. Dollar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美元</b></blockquote></p><p> In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.</p><p><blockquote>在美元指数（DXY）的每日日本烛台图中，我们可以看到价格已经停止测试3月底/4月初的高点。DXY可能会缓慢向下漂移，重新测试5月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c086d11fb1d31f2710dc3752d158a2e7\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Mark Your Calendars</b></p><p><blockquote><b>标记您的日历</b></blockquote></p><p> A technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.</p><p><blockquote>我自20世纪90年代中期以来一直使用的一项技术服务(www.pfr.com)预计8月2日左右将出现大规模“趋势变化”，这值得关注。这可能标志着主要平均指数可能出现10%的回调。下一次趋势变化预计将在10月下旬，这可能是年底反弹的开始。随着8月2日的临近，我们希望密切关注涨跌数据和价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sentiment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>情绪</b></blockquote></p><p> No discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.</p><p><blockquote>如果不讨论情绪，任何关于股市的讨论都是不完整的。有很多“迹象”表明股市正在下滑。</blockquote></p><p> I see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:</p><p><blockquote>我看到了许多来自其他技术分析师的市场信件和评论，他们都是看涨的。我收到来自Real Money订阅者的电子邮件，询问这只股票或那只股票，我有两个观察结果：</blockquote></p><p> 1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.</p><p><blockquote>1.他们询问的名字似乎更具投机性质。我不记得上次有人给我发电子邮件询问无聊的公用事业股票是什么时候了。</blockquote></p><p> 2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.</p><p><blockquote>2.电子邮件给我留下深刻印象的第二件事是没有认识到风险。每个人都想知道下一个最高价格目标，但他们从不问在哪里移动止损。</blockquote></p><p> Sentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.</p><p><blockquote>情绪不是一个精确的指标，其中大部分本质上是轶事，很难量化。预期的Robinhood IPO可能标志着一个转折点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom-Line Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线策略</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一两年里，股市给了我们一些令人难以置信的回报，但也出现了一些警告信号，交易者需要开始向另一个方向倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> Consider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>考虑增加大宗商品投资，因为它们可能是第三季度表现出色的股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?</p><p><blockquote>考虑成为规模扩大的获利者。继续提高止损保护，锁定更多收益。密切关注价格收盘区间。高点通常是在价格接近当天高点时形成的。当市场或您最喜欢的股票下跌时，平衡成交量线是否会随着成交量增加而减弱？</blockquote></p><p> Pay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.</p><p><blockquote>密切关注新闻，观察股票和市场因看涨消息而下跌——这告诉我们消息已经打折。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/second-half-2021-market-forecasts-thoughts-and-observations-15702152?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192425829","content_text":"The stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing -- and one key date to keep an eye on.\n\nThe stock market, commodity markets and fixed-income markets have been on some wild rides the past 18 months. We penned 2021 forecast pieces back in January (readhereandhere), but a fresh look at things for the balance of the year seems like a good idea with commodity plays on the rise, oil prices coming on strong while other areas of the market are cooling.\nLet's start our analysis with some monthly candlestick charts.\nCandlestick AnalysisDow Jones Industrials\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), below, we can see that prices have made a huge rise over the past decade and a very sharp advance since March of 2020. Taking a little liberty in our methodology we can see an 8 to 10 record high advance since the 2020 pandemic low. Notice the slowing pace of the 12-month price momentum study in the lower panel.\nS&P 500\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) below, we can see another big advance over the past 10 years. The index made a sideways consolidation pattern in 2015-2016 around 2,000 to 2,200 and we have for most part doubled from there. I would not be surprised to see some significant profit-taking as the SPX approached 4,400. Momentum has been slowing here too.\nNasdaq\nIn this monthly Japanese candlestick chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their consolidation pattern in 2018 and 2019 in the 7,000 area. Prices have nearly tripled from their consolidation around 5,000 in 2015-2016. Yes, the momentum study is slowing.\nRussell 2000\nIn this monthly candlestick chart of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) we can see that prices have more than doubled from their March 2020 low. This could take your breath away. With the string of white candles and weakening momentum we want to be more cautious as we move forward in the third quarter.\nAll these charts (above) show the 8 to 10 record high pattern so we should be on our guard for a top reversal pattern.\nAdvance-Decline Analysis\nNow, let's turn our attention to the Advance-Decline line.\nDow Jones Industrials\nIn this daily candlestick chart of the DJIA, below, we show the Advance-Decline line which has been moving sideways since early May. This difference between the price action is a bearish divergence but the DJIA is a narrow average with only 30 stocks.\nS&P 500\nIn this chart of the S&P 500 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we can see that prices and the Advance-Decline line are pointed up so a bearish divergence has not started.\nNasdaq\nIn this chart of the Nasdaq, below, we can see a significant bearish divergence. The Nasdaq has been making new highs but the Advance-Decline line has been moving sideways to lower from February.\nNasdaq 100\nIn this chart of Nasdaq 100 and its Advance-Decline line, below, we see prices and the indicator going up together. No bearish divergence here.Sectors\nThe marketplace can be broken down into 11 sectors but I want to cover just part of the list today.EnergyIn this weekly candlestick chart of the (XLE) , the S&P Energy sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have doubled from their pandemic low. Trading volume has been very heavy and the weekly On-Balance-Volume has been stalled the past four months. The 12-week price momentum study has been weakening for a bearish divergence.\n\nTwo energy names that could rally further in the third quarter are EOG Resources (EOG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) . Here are the charts.\nFinancials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLF) , the Financial sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have begun a topping phase. Prices have broken below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened from early June and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator has fallen below the zero line for an outright sell signal.\nTechnology\nIn this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of the (XLK) , the Technology sector ETF, below, we can see that prices have more than doubled from their pandemic low. The trading volume has diminished since March 2020 and the weekly On-Balance-Volume line has been stuck in a sideways trend for the past 12 months. The 12-week price momentum study in the bottom panel shows lower highs being made the past year. This is a significant bearish divergence.\nIndustrials\nIn this daily bar chart of the (XLI) , the Industrial sector ETF, below, we can see a weakening picture. Prices have slipped below the cresting 50-day moving average line. The On-Balance-Volume line has weakened the past two months and the MACD oscillator is below the zero line in sell territory.\nBonds\nIn this daily Point and Figure chart of the (TLT) , the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF, below, we can see a potential upside price target in the $165 area.\nU.S. Dollar\nIn this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we can see that prices have stopped short of a test of its late March/early April highs. DXY could make a slow drift downward to retest its May lows.\nMark Your Calendars\nA technical service that I have been using since the mid-1990s (www.pfr.com) is anticipating a large-scale \"trend change\" on or about Aug. 2 and this bears watching. This could mark the start of perhaps a 10% correction in the major averages. The next trend change is anticipated for late October, which could be the start of a year-end rally. We want to pay closer attention to the advance-decline numbers and price action as we approach Aug. 2.\nSentiment\nNo discussion about the stock market would be complete without some discussion of sentiment. There are plenty of \"signs\" of the stock market being out over its skis.\nI see a number of market letters and commentary from fellow technical analysts and they are all bullish. I get emails from Real Money subscribers asking about this stock or that stock and I have two observations:\n1. The names they are asking about seem to be more speculative in nature. I cannot remember the last time someone emailed me about a boring utility stock.\n2. The second thing that has struck me about the emails is the failure to recognize risk. Everyone wants to know the next highest price target but they never ask about where to move a stop up.\nSentiment is not a precise indicator and much of it is anecdotal in nature and hard to quantify. The anticipated Robinhood IPO could mark a turning point.\nBottom-Line Strategy\nThe stock market has given us some incredible returns in the past year or two but there are some warning signs developing and traders need to start leaning in the other direction.\nConsider adding to commodity plays as they could be the outperformers of the third quarter.\nConsider becoming a scale-up profit taker. Continue to raise your stop protection to lock in more gains. Pay closer attention to where in the range prices are closing. Highs are typically made when prices close near the high of the day.Is the On-Balance-Volume line weakening as volume increases on days when the market or your favorite stock declines?\nPay closer attention to the news and watch for stocks and the market to decline on bullish news -- this tells us that the news has been discounted.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1235,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/155306055"}
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