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2021-06-16
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Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>
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Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.</p><p><blockquote>即使在季度业绩强劲之后，高盛著名的空头罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)仍因对苹果股票持悲观态度而成为人们关注的焦点，但他还是认输了，将他对AAPL的仓位从卖出改为中性。上周，他接受了CNBC的采访，进一步阐述了自己的决定。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家仔细研究了这只空头对苹果股票从高度怀疑到谨慎乐观的历程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone at the center of the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊壳中央的iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> At the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:</p><p><blockquote>高盛对苹果股票的卖出评级的核心是这家库比蒂诺公司在满足未来iPhone销售增长指标方面面临的挑战。罗德·霍尔解释道：</blockquote></p><p> “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.” To be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint at the start of the 5G cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果继续表现出强劲的执行力，但我们认为2021年的基本面更有可能令人失望，因为人们期待已久的5G iPhone未能达到乐观的共识预期，服务收入增长放缓。”公平地说，在高盛股票评级上调之前，苹果最近的财务业绩远非令人振奋。这家库比蒂诺公司的主要收入来源iPhone在2020年的业绩不佳，这让一些人怀疑智能手机销量是否会在5G周期开始时令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> The plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机销量在疫情年之前就趋于平稳。根据第三方研究公司Gartner和Strategy Analytics的数据，2019年iPhone销量为1.87亿部，低于2018年的2.17亿部。从2019年到2020年，iPhone的收入出现了前所未有的下降：从1420亿美元下降到去年的1380亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.</p><p><blockquote>因此，根据最近的趋势，罗德·霍尔对iPhone的看跌似乎是有道理的。分析师认为，推动苹果股价上涨的因素是负面催化剂。他相信新冠肺炎·疫情可能就是它。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89631d8083d43e0daee7828d45e7a67a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone季度收入（十亿美元）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>When Goldman Sachs fell off the horse</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当高盛落马</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after the Cupertino company crushed expectations and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays in the launch of the new device.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，在这家库比蒂诺公司超出预期并发布井喷式收益报告后，高盛对苹果公司的评级发生了变化。2021财年第二季度标志着iPhone 12销售的转折点，此前苹果面临新设备发布的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布的iPhone营收为479亿美元，而华尔街普遍预期为415亿美元。与去年同期相比，营收增长了惊人的190亿美元，增长了65%。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让高盛的罗德·霍尔措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛如何看待苹果的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，一个关键指标证明了对AAPL的中立立场是合理的：每用户收入。该分析师认为，该指标的增长应与美国GDP保持一致。他指出，苹果的每用户收入近年来保持不变，只是在疫情期间由于居家趋势而有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> On the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，罗德·霍尔看到了隐私的重要性，并认为苹果可以从成为用户数据保护倡导者的需求增加中受益。悲观的一面是，分析师仍然怀疑服务领域是否会像预期的那样增长，并且只有约20%至25%的活跃用户会为苹果服务付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven's take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Rod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.</p><p><blockquote>罗德·霍尔不是华尔街第一个也不会是最后一个被证明股票评级错误的人。高盛的立场是逆向的，出于同样的原因也很大胆。然而，这位苹果专家认为，罗德·霍尔的谨慎立场可能仍然有点过于保守。</blockquote></p><p> While stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.</p><p><blockquote>虽然居家趋势可能扭曲了2020财年和2021年初的业绩，但5G周期、M1架构、服务组合的扩张和总体上有弹性的消费者支出可能仍有助于提高苹果的每用户收入指标——高盛的主要关注点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Goldman Sachs Changed Its Mind On Apple Stock<blockquote>高盛为何改变对苹果股票的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.</p><p><blockquote>即使在季度业绩强劲之后，高盛著名的空头罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)仍因对苹果股票持悲观态度而成为人们关注的焦点，但他还是认输了，将他对AAPL的仓位从卖出改为中性。上周，他接受了CNBC的采访，进一步阐述了自己的决定。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家仔细研究了这只空头对苹果股票从高度怀疑到谨慎乐观的历程。</blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone at the center of the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊壳中央的iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> At the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:</p><p><blockquote>高盛对苹果股票的卖出评级的核心是这家库比蒂诺公司在满足未来iPhone销售增长指标方面面临的挑战。罗德·霍尔解释道：</blockquote></p><p> “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.” To be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint at the start of the 5G cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“苹果继续表现出强劲的执行力，但我们认为2021年的基本面更有可能令人失望，因为人们期待已久的5G iPhone未能达到乐观的共识预期，服务收入增长放缓。”公平地说，在高盛股票评级上调之前，苹果最近的财务业绩远非令人振奋。这家库比蒂诺公司的主要收入来源iPhone在2020年的业绩不佳，这让一些人怀疑智能手机销量是否会在5G周期开始时令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> The plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.</p><p><blockquote>智能手机销量在疫情年之前就趋于平稳。根据第三方研究公司Gartner和Strategy Analytics的数据，2019年iPhone销量为1.87亿部，低于2018年的2.17亿部。从2019年到2020年，iPhone的收入出现了前所未有的下降：从1420亿美元下降到去年的1380亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.</p><p><blockquote>因此，根据最近的趋势，罗德·霍尔对iPhone的看跌似乎是有道理的。分析师认为，推动苹果股价上涨的因素是负面催化剂。他相信新冠肺炎·疫情可能就是它。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89631d8083d43e0daee7828d45e7a67a\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Figure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：iPhone季度收入（十亿美元）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>When Goldman Sachs fell off the horse</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当高盛落马</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after the Cupertino company crushed expectations and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays in the launch of the new device.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，在这家库比蒂诺公司超出预期并发布井喷式收益报告后，高盛对苹果公司的评级发生了变化。2021财年第二季度标志着iPhone 12销售的转折点，此前苹果面临新设备发布的延迟。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公布的iPhone营收为479亿美元，而华尔街普遍预期为415亿美元。与去年同期相比，营收增长了惊人的190亿美元，增长了65%。</blockquote></p><p> These numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字可能让高盛的罗德·霍尔措手不及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛如何看待苹果的未来</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示，一个关键指标证明了对AAPL的中立立场是合理的：每用户收入。该分析师认为，该指标的增长应与美国GDP保持一致。他指出，苹果的每用户收入近年来保持不变，只是在疫情期间由于居家趋势而有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> On the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>从乐观的角度来看，罗德·霍尔看到了隐私的重要性，并认为苹果可以从成为用户数据保护倡导者的需求增加中受益。悲观的一面是，分析师仍然怀疑服务领域是否会像预期的那样增长，并且只有约20%至25%的活跃用户会为苹果服务付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven's take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Rod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.</p><p><blockquote>罗德·霍尔不是华尔街第一个也不会是最后一个被证明股票评级错误的人。高盛的立场是逆向的，出于同样的原因也很大胆。然而，这位苹果专家认为，罗德·霍尔的谨慎立场可能仍然有点过于保守。</blockquote></p><p> While stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.</p><p><blockquote>虽然居家趋势可能扭曲了2020财年和2021年初的业绩，但5G周期、M1架构、服务组合的扩张和总体上有弹性的消费者支出可能仍有助于提高苹果的每用户收入指标——高盛的主要关注点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/why-goldman-sachs-changed-its-mind-on-apple-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109582645","content_text":"After being on the spotlight for latching on to his pessimism over Apple stock, even following strong quarterly results, famed bear Rod Hall at Goldman Sachs threw in the towel and changed his position on AAPLfrom sell to neutral. Last week, he gave an interview to CNBC and further elaborated on his decision.\nThe Apple Maven takes a closer look at this bear’s journey from highly skeptical to timidly optimistic about Apple shares.\niPhone at the center of the bear case\nAt the core of Goldman Sachs’ sell rating on Apple stock was the Cupertino company's challenges at meeting iPhone sales growth metrics going forward. Rod Hall explained it:\n\n “Apple continues to show strong execution, but we see fundamentals more likely to disappoint in 2021 as the long-anticipated 5G iPhone fails to meet optimistic consensus expectations and services revenue growth slows.”\n\nTo be fair, Apple’s most recent financial results had been far from exhilarating ahead of Goldman’s stock rating upgrade. The Cupertino company's main revenue generator, the iPhone, had produced timid results in 2020, making some wonder if smartphone sales would disappoint at the start of the 5G cycle.\nThe plateauing in smartphone sales preceded the pandemic year. Based on data from third party-research companies Gartner and Strategy Analytics, 187 million iPhones were sold in 2019, fewer than the 217 million of 2018. And from 2019 to 2020, there was an unprecedented decrease in iPhone revenues: from $142 billion to $138 billion last year.\nTherefore, and based on recent trends, Rod Hall’s bearishness towards the iPhone seemed reasonably justifiable. What had been missing to tip Apple stock over, in the analyst’s view, was a negative catalyst. He believed that the COVID-19 pandemic could be it.\nFigure 1: iPhone quarterly revenue ($bn).\nWhen Goldman Sachs fell off the horse\nGoldman’s rating change on AAPL came in April, after the Cupertino company crushed expectations and released a blowout earnings report. Fiscal second quarter 2021 marked a turning point in iPhone 12 sales, after Apple faced delays in the launch of the new device.\nApple reported iPhone revenues of $47.9 billion versus Wall Street’s consensus $41.5 billion. Year-over-year, the top-line increase was a staggering $19 billion, representing growth of 65%.\nThese numbers probably caught Goldman’s Rod Hall flat-footed.\nHow Goldman Sachs sees Apple going forward\nAccording to Goldman, the neutral position on AAPL is justified by one key metric: revenues per user. The analyst believes that growth in this metric should be in line with U.S. GDP. He points out that Apple's revenues per user have remained static in recent years, only rising during the pandemic due to stay-at-home trends.\nOn the bullish side of the argument, Rod Hall sees the importance of privacy, and thinks that Apple could benefit from increased demand for being an advocate of user data protection. On the bearish side, the analyst remains skeptical that the services segment will grow as much as expected, and that only about 20% to 25% of active users will pay for Apple services.\nThe Apple Maven's take\nRod Hall has not been the first and will not be the last on Wall Street to be proven wrong on a stock rating. Goldman Sachs' position was contrarian, and bold for the same reason. Yet, the Apple Maven believes that Rod Hall’s cautious stance could still be a bit too conservative.\nWhile stay-at-home trends may have distorted fiscal 2020 and early 2021 results, the 5G cycle, the M1 architecture, the expansion of the services portfolio and resilient consumer spending in general may still help to boost Apple's revenue-per-user metric – Goldman’s key concern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/169571372"}
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