SekharS
2021-05-14
Most predicted
Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote>
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Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场定时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX（尤其是1.07%市场）的市场定时器，已经变得足够看跌，以至于阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。尽管如此，尚不清楚任何新的反弹是否会产生持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，按照历史标准，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%跌幅。在周四大幅上涨之前，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA已较之前的历史高点（即3.4%）下跌约1,200点，跌幅为0.85%。标准普尔500SPX指数(0.98%)较高点低4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数(1.13%)下跌7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下关注纳斯达克的市场定时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）为代表）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场定时器现在建议他们的客户将平均10.7%的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为+83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短10个交易日内就退出了94.3个百分点。事实上，自2000年以来的5,000多个交易日中，只有18-0.3%，其中HNNSI在过去10天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>为了理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次HNNSI下跌幅度如此之大、如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？图表上的答案也很明显：过去10天，HNNSI的下跌幅度远低于过度看跌区域，即历史分布的底部10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次落入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的“担忧之墙”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的那堵墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景显示，市场计时器乐于触发。当市场反弹时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会加入看跌行列。因此，无论是上涨还是下跌都往往是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>更持久的反弹将需要市场计时器更加极端的看跌情绪，并且他们在反弹最初起飞后顽固地坚持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场反弹——趁它持续。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在股市反弹会很快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b> Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场定时器与多头一起运行，但很快就转向看跌。</b>逆向投资者怀疑股市最近的下跌已经结束——就目前而言。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场定时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX（尤其是1.07%市场）的市场定时器，已经变得足够看跌，以至于阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。尽管如此，尚不清楚任何新的反弹是否会产生持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，按照历史标准，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%跌幅。在周四大幅上涨之前，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA已较之前的历史高点（即3.4%）下跌约1,200点，跌幅为0.85%。标准普尔500SPX指数(0.98%)较高点低4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数(1.13%)下跌7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下关注纳斯达克的市场定时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）为代表）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场定时器现在建议他们的客户将平均10.7%的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为+83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短10个交易日内就退出了94.3个百分点。事实上，自2000年以来的5,000多个交易日中，只有18-0.3%，其中HNNSI在过去10天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>为了理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次HNNSI下跌幅度如此之大、如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？图表上的答案也很明显：过去10天，HNNSI的下跌幅度远低于过度看跌区域，即历史分布的底部10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次落入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的“担忧之墙”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的那堵墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景显示，市场计时器乐于触发。当市场反弹时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会加入看跌行列。因此，无论是上涨还是下跌都往往是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>更持久的反弹将需要市场计时器更加极端的看跌情绪，并且他们在反弹最初起飞后顽固地坚持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场反弹——趁它持续。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111018641","content_text":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.\nThat’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.\nFor now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.\nConsider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.\n\nThat reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.\nTo appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.\nWhy, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.\nThe last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.\nThe sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.\nA longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/196906653"}
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