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2021-02-23

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Why This Bull Market Shows No Sign of Ending Soon<blockquote>为什么牛市没有很快结束的迹象</blockquote>

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Cyclical equities rose, bonds fell, and investors wrung their hands about higher yields threatening the stock market.<blockquote>过去一周的经济数据在很大程度上凸显了市场对经济正在快速复苏的明显信念。周期性股票上涨，债券下跌，投资者对威胁股市的更高收益率感到紧张。</blockquote> Januaryretail sales jumped 5.3%from December and 7.4% from a year earlier, handily beating expectations—and the January producer-price index likewise surprised to the upside. Thursday morning’s initial jobless claims figures for the latest weekbroke a several-week trendof declines, while the prior week’s tally was revised higher. But then on Friday, February PMIs from IHS Markit decidedly underscored the health of the recovery: The manufacturing subindex held just below its recent peak, while the services component hit a six-year high.<blockquote>1月份零售额较12月份增长5.3%，较去年同期增长7.4%，轻松超出预期，1月份生产者价格指数同样出人意料地上涨。周四上午公布的最近一周首次申请失业救济人数打破了连续几周的下降趋势，而前一周的数据则被上调。但随后在周五，IHS Markit的2月份PMI明确强调了复苏的健康状况：制造业分类指数略低于近期峰值，而服务业分类指数则触及六年高点。</blockquote> TheAtlanta Fed’s GDPNow modelnow points to real gross-domestic-product growth at a whopping 9.5% annualized rate in the first quarter. It had been below 5% just 10 days earlier, and it comes before any boost from a $1.9 trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型显示，第一季度实际国内生产总值年化增长率高达9.5%。就在10天前，这一比例还低于5%，而且是在1.9万亿美元刺激计划带来任何提振之前。</blockquote> TheDow Jones Industrial Averagerose 35.92 points, or 0.11%, to 31,494.32 this past week. TheS&amp;P 500index slipped 0.71%, to 3906.71, and theNasdaq Compositelost 1.57%, to 13,874.46. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, meanwhile, ticked up 0.145 percentage point, to 1.344%, as the price of the securities fell. Indexes near record highs and rising yields has been the basic dynamic since late last year.<blockquote>过去一周道琼斯工业平均指数上涨35.92点，即0.11%，至31,494.32点。标准普尔500指数下跌0.71%，至3906.71点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.57%，至13,874.46点。与此同时，随着证券价格下跌，10年期美国国债收益率上涨0.145个百分点，至1.344%。自去年年底以来，指数接近历史高点和收益率上升一直是基本动态。</blockquote> “The market is painting a picture of optimism: strong growth and rising, but not troublesome, inflation. We agree,” BofA Securities U.S. economist Michelle Meyer—who sees GDP growing by 6% in 2021—wrote on Friday. “But there is a delicate balance: strong growth could prompt a faster rise in rates, driving up borrowing costs and weighing on risky assets, limiting upside to economic growth.”<blockquote>美银证券美国经济学家米歇尔·迈耶(Michelle Meyer)周五写道：“市场正在描绘一幅乐观的画面：增长强劲，通胀上升，但并不麻烦。我们同意这一点。”她预计2021年GDP将增长6%。“但存在一种微妙的平衡：强劲增长可能会促使利率更快上升，推高借贷成本并打压风险资产，从而限制经济增长的上行空间。”</blockquote> That “delicate balance” means investors may soon be playing the kind of mind games many will remember from the first half of 2019. Back then, good economic datawasn’t always good newsfor the stock market, because it seemingly lowered the odds of the interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve ultimately followed through with. If the 2021 economic data continue to surprise to the upside, faster inflation and the speed of the recovery could force the Fed to take its foot off the gas sooner than expected, the thinking goes, and that could threaten the bull market.<blockquote>这种“微妙的平衡”意味着投资者可能很快就会玩许多人记得2019年上半年的那种心理游戏。当时，良好的经济数据对股市来说并不总是好消息，因为它似乎降低了美联储最终实施降息的可能性。人们认为，如果2021年经济数据继续出人意料地上行，更快的通胀和复苏速度可能会迫使美联储比预期更快地停止行动，这可能会威胁牛市。</blockquote> This time is a bit different, however, for several reasons. Benchmark interest rates are as low as they can be without being negative, andthe Fed has made it explicitthat it will tolerate periods of higher inflation to make up for past shortfalls. A rate increase is off the table until the economy and employment are in much better shape than they are now. Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to emphasize that at his Congressional testimony this coming week.<blockquote>然而，这一次有点不同，原因有几个。基准利率在不为负的情况下尽可能低，美联储已明确表示将容忍一段时期的通胀上升，以弥补过去的赤字。在经济和就业状况比现在好得多之前，加息是不可能的。杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席可能会在下周的国会证词中强调这一点。</blockquote> And those concerns ignore the fact that yields are rising for the right reasons—because the economy is improving, and because financial markets are getting back to normal after an unprecedented shock.<blockquote>这些担忧忽略了一个事实，即收益率上升是出于正确的原因——因为经济正在改善，因为金融市场在经历了前所未有的冲击后正在恢复正常。</blockquote> “If earnings growth continues to show improvement, you can absorb higher bond yields,” says Jefferies equity strategist Steven DeSanctis.<blockquote>杰富瑞股票策略师史蒂文·德桑蒂斯表示：“如果盈利增长继续改善，你就可以吸收更高的债券收益率。”</blockquote> Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, looked at 16 postwar periods in which yields rose. The S&amp;P 500 was up in 13 of those windows, with an annualized total return of 13%. In other words, rising rates and rising stocks go hand in hand more often than not. An apt parallel might be 2009, when the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1.6 percentage points and the S&amp;P 500 returned 26%.<blockquote>Truist Advisory Services首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)研究了16个战后收益率上升的时期。其中13个窗口期的标普500上涨，年化总回报率为13%。换句话说，利率上升和股市上涨往往是齐头并进的。一个恰当的类比可能是2009年，当时10年期国债收益率上升了1.6个百分点，标普500的回报率为26%。</blockquote> “The tug of war over multiples and when the Fed might flinch will inject volatility, but I don’t think that ends the bull market,” he says. “It just moves us to the next phase.” An improving economy should also lower companies’ credit risk, Lerner notes, so the cost of capital needn’t move up nearly as much as yields will.<blockquote>“关于市盈率的拉锯战以及美联储何时可能退缩将加剧波动，但我不认为这会结束牛市，”他表示。“它只是将我们带入了下一阶段。”勒纳指出，经济的改善也应该降低企业的信用风险，因此资本成本不必像收益率那样上升。</blockquote> Sure, under the surface there will be winners and losers from a higher-yield backdrop. High-multiple, long-duration stocks like those of many highflying software companieswill be disadvantaged. Bond-proxy sectors like utilities will appear less attractive relative to risk-free Treasuries.<blockquote>当然，在表面之下，高收益背景下会有赢家和输家。像许多飞速发展的软件公司这样的高市盈率、长期股票将处于不利地位。相对于无风险国债，公用事业等债券代理行业的吸引力似乎较小。</blockquote> But the economic recovery will be expressed in higher revenue and earnings across the market. As long as those come back faster than rising yields pressure price/earnings multiples, there’s no reason why the bull market need end. Longer-term inflation is another conversation. But for the present, there are better things for stock investors to worry about than a faster-than-expected economic recovery in 2021.<blockquote>但经济复苏将表现为整个市场收入和盈利的增加。只要这些反弹的速度快于收益率上升对市盈率的压力，牛市就没有理由结束。长期通胀是另一个话题。但就目前而言，对于股票投资者来说，还有比2021年经济复苏快于预期更好的事情需要担心。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why This Bull Market Shows No Sign of Ending Soon<blockquote>为什么牛市没有很快结束的迹象</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy This Bull Market Shows No Sign of Ending Soon<blockquote>为什么牛市没有很快结束的迹象</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-02-22 14:23\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe economic data this past week largely underscored the market’s apparent conviction that a rapid recovery is under way. Cyclical equities rose, bonds fell, and investors wrung their hands about higher yields threatening the stock market.<blockquote>过去一周的经济数据在很大程度上凸显了市场对经济正在快速复苏的明显信念。周期性股票上涨，债券下跌，投资者对威胁股市的更高收益率感到紧张。</blockquote> Januaryretail sales jumped 5.3%from December and 7.4% from a year earlier, handily beating expectations—and the January producer-price index likewise surprised to the upside. Thursday morning’s initial jobless claims figures for the latest weekbroke a several-week trendof declines, while the prior week’s tally was revised higher. But then on Friday, February PMIs from IHS Markit decidedly underscored the health of the recovery: The manufacturing subindex held just below its recent peak, while the services component hit a six-year high.<blockquote>1月份零售额较12月份增长5.3%，较去年同期增长7.4%，轻松超出预期，1月份生产者价格指数同样出人意料地上涨。周四上午公布的最近一周首次申请失业救济人数打破了连续几周的下降趋势，而前一周的数据则被上调。但随后在周五，IHS Markit的2月份PMI明确强调了复苏的健康状况：制造业分类指数略低于近期峰值，而服务业分类指数则触及六年高点。</blockquote> TheAtlanta Fed’s GDPNow modelnow points to real gross-domestic-product growth at a whopping 9.5% annualized rate in the first quarter. It had been below 5% just 10 days earlier, and it comes before any boost from a $1.9 trillion stimulus package.<blockquote>亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型显示，第一季度实际国内生产总值年化增长率高达9.5%。就在10天前，这一比例还低于5%，而且是在1.9万亿美元刺激计划带来任何提振之前。</blockquote> TheDow Jones Industrial Averagerose 35.92 points, or 0.11%, to 31,494.32 this past week. TheS&amp;P 500index slipped 0.71%, to 3906.71, and theNasdaq Compositelost 1.57%, to 13,874.46. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, meanwhile, ticked up 0.145 percentage point, to 1.344%, as the price of the securities fell. Indexes near record highs and rising yields has been the basic dynamic since late last year.<blockquote>过去一周道琼斯工业平均指数上涨35.92点，即0.11%，至31,494.32点。标准普尔500指数下跌0.71%，至3906.71点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.57%，至13,874.46点。与此同时，随着证券价格下跌，10年期美国国债收益率上涨0.145个百分点，至1.344%。自去年年底以来，指数接近历史高点和收益率上升一直是基本动态。</blockquote> “The market is painting a picture of optimism: strong growth and rising, but not troublesome, inflation. We agree,” BofA Securities U.S. economist Michelle Meyer—who sees GDP growing by 6% in 2021—wrote on Friday. “But there is a delicate balance: strong growth could prompt a faster rise in rates, driving up borrowing costs and weighing on risky assets, limiting upside to economic growth.”<blockquote>美银证券美国经济学家米歇尔·迈耶(Michelle Meyer)周五写道：“市场正在描绘一幅乐观的画面：增长强劲，通胀上升，但并不麻烦。我们同意这一点。”她预计2021年GDP将增长6%。“但存在一种微妙的平衡：强劲增长可能会促使利率更快上升，推高借贷成本并打压风险资产，从而限制经济增长的上行空间。”</blockquote> That “delicate balance” means investors may soon be playing the kind of mind games many will remember from the first half of 2019. Back then, good economic datawasn’t always good newsfor the stock market, because it seemingly lowered the odds of the interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve ultimately followed through with. If the 2021 economic data continue to surprise to the upside, faster inflation and the speed of the recovery could force the Fed to take its foot off the gas sooner than expected, the thinking goes, and that could threaten the bull market.<blockquote>这种“微妙的平衡”意味着投资者可能很快就会玩许多人记得2019年上半年的那种心理游戏。当时，良好的经济数据对股市来说并不总是好消息，因为它似乎降低了美联储最终实施降息的可能性。人们认为，如果2021年经济数据继续出人意料地上行，更快的通胀和复苏速度可能会迫使美联储比预期更快地停止行动，这可能会威胁牛市。</blockquote> This time is a bit different, however, for several reasons. Benchmark interest rates are as low as they can be without being negative, andthe Fed has made it explicitthat it will tolerate periods of higher inflation to make up for past shortfalls. A rate increase is off the table until the economy and employment are in much better shape than they are now. Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to emphasize that at his Congressional testimony this coming week.<blockquote>然而，这一次有点不同，原因有几个。基准利率在不为负的情况下尽可能低，美联储已明确表示将容忍一段时期的通胀上升，以弥补过去的赤字。在经济和就业状况比现在好得多之前，加息是不可能的。杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席可能会在下周的国会证词中强调这一点。</blockquote> And those concerns ignore the fact that yields are rising for the right reasons—because the economy is improving, and because financial markets are getting back to normal after an unprecedented shock.<blockquote>这些担忧忽略了一个事实，即收益率上升是出于正确的原因——因为经济正在改善，因为金融市场在经历了前所未有的冲击后正在恢复正常。</blockquote> “If earnings growth continues to show improvement, you can absorb higher bond yields,” says Jefferies equity strategist Steven DeSanctis.<blockquote>杰富瑞股票策略师史蒂文·德桑蒂斯表示：“如果盈利增长继续改善，你就可以吸收更高的债券收益率。”</blockquote> Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, looked at 16 postwar periods in which yields rose. The S&amp;P 500 was up in 13 of those windows, with an annualized total return of 13%. In other words, rising rates and rising stocks go hand in hand more often than not. An apt parallel might be 2009, when the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1.6 percentage points and the S&amp;P 500 returned 26%.<blockquote>Truist Advisory Services首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)研究了16个战后收益率上升的时期。其中13个窗口期的标普500上涨，年化总回报率为13%。换句话说，利率上升和股市上涨往往是齐头并进的。一个恰当的类比可能是2009年，当时10年期国债收益率上升了1.6个百分点，标普500的回报率为26%。</blockquote> “The tug of war over multiples and when the Fed might flinch will inject volatility, but I don’t think that ends the bull market,” he says. “It just moves us to the next phase.” An improving economy should also lower companies’ credit risk, Lerner notes, so the cost of capital needn’t move up nearly as much as yields will.<blockquote>“关于市盈率的拉锯战以及美联储何时可能退缩将加剧波动，但我不认为这会结束牛市，”他表示。“它只是将我们带入了下一阶段。”勒纳指出，经济的改善也应该降低企业的信用风险，因此资本成本不必像收益率那样上升。</blockquote> Sure, under the surface there will be winners and losers from a higher-yield backdrop. High-multiple, long-duration stocks like those of many highflying software companieswill be disadvantaged. Bond-proxy sectors like utilities will appear less attractive relative to risk-free Treasuries.<blockquote>当然，在表面之下，高收益背景下会有赢家和输家。像许多飞速发展的软件公司这样的高市盈率、长期股票将处于不利地位。相对于无风险国债，公用事业等债券代理行业的吸引力似乎较小。</blockquote> But the economic recovery will be expressed in higher revenue and earnings across the market. As long as those come back faster than rising yields pressure price/earnings multiples, there’s no reason why the bull market need end. Longer-term inflation is another conversation. But for the present, there are better things for stock investors to worry about than a faster-than-expected economic recovery in 2021.<blockquote>但经济复苏将表现为整个市场收入和盈利的增加。只要这些反弹的速度快于收益率上升对市盈率的压力，牛市就没有理由结束。长期通胀是另一个话题。但就目前而言，对于股票投资者来说，还有比2021年经济复苏快于预期更好的事情需要担心。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-this-bull-market-shows-no-sign-of-ending-soon-51613781492?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-this-bull-market-shows-no-sign-of-ending-soon-51613781492?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175531691","content_text":"The economic data this past week largely underscored the market’s apparent conviction that a rapid recovery is under way. Cyclical equities rose, bonds fell, and investors wrung their hands about higher yields threatening the stock market.\nJanuaryretail sales jumped 5.3%from December and 7.4% from a year earlier, handily beating expectations—and the January producer-price index likewise surprised to the upside. Thursday morning’s initial jobless claims figures for the latest weekbroke a several-week trendof declines, while the prior week’s tally was revised higher. But then on Friday, February PMIs from IHS Markit decidedly underscored the health of the recovery: The manufacturing subindex held just below its recent peak, while the services component hit a six-year high.\nTheAtlanta Fed’s GDPNow modelnow points to real gross-domestic-product growth at a whopping 9.5% annualized rate in the first quarter. It had been below 5% just 10 days earlier, and it comes before any boost from a $1.9 trillion stimulus package.\nTheDow Jones Industrial Averagerose 35.92 points, or 0.11%, to 31,494.32 this past week. TheS&P 500index slipped 0.71%, to 3906.71, and theNasdaq Compositelost 1.57%, to 13,874.46. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, meanwhile, ticked up 0.145 percentage point, to 1.344%, as the price of the securities fell. Indexes near record highs and rising yields has been the basic dynamic since late last year.\n“The market is painting a picture of optimism: strong growth and rising, but not troublesome, inflation. We agree,” BofA Securities U.S. economist Michelle Meyer—who sees GDP growing by 6% in 2021—wrote on Friday. “But there is a delicate balance: strong growth could prompt a faster rise in rates, driving up borrowing costs and weighing on risky assets, limiting upside to economic growth.”\nThat “delicate balance” means investors may soon be playing the kind of mind games many will remember from the first half of 2019. Back then, good economic datawasn’t always good newsfor the stock market, because it seemingly lowered the odds of the interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve ultimately followed through with. If the 2021 economic data continue to surprise to the upside, faster inflation and the speed of the recovery could force the Fed to take its foot off the gas sooner than expected, the thinking goes, and that could threaten the bull market.\nThis time is a bit different, however, for several reasons. Benchmark interest rates are as low as they can be without being negative, andthe Fed has made it explicitthat it will tolerate periods of higher inflation to make up for past shortfalls. A rate increase is off the table until the economy and employment are in much better shape than they are now. Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to emphasize that at his Congressional testimony this coming week.\nAnd those concerns ignore the fact that yields are rising for the right reasons—because the economy is improving, and because financial markets are getting back to normal after an unprecedented shock.\n“If earnings growth continues to show improvement, you can absorb higher bond yields,” says Jefferies equity strategist Steven DeSanctis.\nKeith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, looked at 16 postwar periods in which yields rose. The S&P 500 was up in 13 of those windows, with an annualized total return of 13%. In other words, rising rates and rising stocks go hand in hand more often than not. An apt parallel might be 2009, when the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1.6 percentage points and the S&P 500 returned 26%.\n“The tug of war over multiples and when the Fed might flinch will inject volatility, but I don’t think that ends the bull market,” he says. “It just moves us to the next phase.” An improving economy should also lower companies’ credit risk, Lerner notes, so the cost of capital needn’t move up nearly as much as yields will.\nSure, under the surface there will be winners and losers from a higher-yield backdrop. High-multiple, long-duration stocks like those of many highflying software companieswill be disadvantaged. Bond-proxy sectors like utilities will appear less attractive relative to risk-free Treasuries.\nBut the economic recovery will be expressed in higher revenue and earnings across the market. As long as those come back faster than rising yields pressure price/earnings multiples, there’s no reason why the bull market need end. Longer-term inflation is another conversation. But for the present, there are better things for stock investors to worry about than a faster-than-expected economic recovery in 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/369850448"}