MasterZheng
2021-12-03
It is the next tesla. 1 trllion here we go.
Why Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian(目前)</blockquote>
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But the numbers (or lack thereof) don't add up.","content":"<p>One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is <b>Rivian</b>. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of <b>Tesla</b>, the market leader in electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.</p><p><blockquote>目前投资界最热门的公司之一是<b>Rivian</b>这家电动汽车初创公司刚刚上市,市值超过1000亿美元,考虑到它从未产生任何销售额,这令人震惊。随着<b>特斯拉</b>电动汽车市场的领导者,市值最近超过1万亿美元,围绕这个新行业的兴奋已经达到了白热化的程度。</blockquote></p><p> While Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rivian的招股说明书令人兴奋,而且该公司正在寻求巨大的市场机会,但为所有这些潜力所付出的代价实在是太高了。以下是投资者目前需要远离Rivian股票的一些原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af764bd447f10cf89d9c92eb80ad9d14\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Rivian.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源:Rivian。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The company is pre-revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司是预营收</b></blockquote></p><p> At a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.</p><p><blockquote>从最基本的层面来看,Rivian并不是一家市值1060亿美元的合适投资公司,因为它从未产生过任何收入,更不用说利润或自由现金流了。根据S-1(公司在进行首次公开募股(IPO)之前必须向SEC提交的文件),Rivian第三季度生产了12辆汽车,全部出售给员工。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底,预计将生产1,200辆R1T(电动卡车),到2023年底,预计将生产55,400辆汽车,这将清除目前积压的订单。如果Rivian以67,500美元的平均价格(其网站上目前R1T的标准成本)出售这些车辆,那么从现在到2023年底,它将产生约37亿美元的收入。由于今年前六个月自由现金流为负17亿美元,这一假设的37亿美元收入甚至无法覆盖Rivian当前的费用基础(随着其开始大规模生产,费用基础可能会增长)。Rivian可能需要三到五年甚至更长时间才能开始为股东产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manufacturing cars is a tough business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造汽车是一项艰难的事业</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian目前的安装基础是65,000辆R1T和85,000辆RCV(其商用货车),使其每年能够生产150,000辆汽车。假设所有这些车辆的平均售价约为67,500美元,一旦Rivian达到规模,其年收入将超过100亿美元。人们可能会认为,在这种收入和制造水平下,Rivian将会盈利。但这是被误导的想法。</blockquote></p><p> If we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看它最接近的竞争对手特斯拉,一家纯电动汽车制造商,它在2018年交付了245,000辆汽车时才接近自由现金流盈亏平衡。制造汽车的成本很高,Rivian的投资者不应该指望利润率会很高,即使十年后Rivian达到某种程度的成熟度。Rivian需要开始快速增加汽车交付量,以便接近1060亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every automaker is all-in on electric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每个汽车制造商都全力投入电动汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉能够长期有增无减的增长原因之一是没有其他公司认真对待电动汽车。这不是我们目前所处的市场环境。大型汽车制造商以及特斯拉和其他纯电动汽车初创企业都在投资数百亿美元来参与未来十年的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford</b> has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S. <b>Toyota</b> has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特</b>已承诺投资114亿美元在美国投资电池和电动汽车制造。<b>丰田</b>仅电池开发和生产就投入了135亿美元。而这只是冰山一角。未来五年,电动汽车的竞争将非常激烈。从停滞开始,Rivian如果想在电动汽车市场获得可观的市场份额,就有一座艰难的山要爬。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't forget about the company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>别忘了公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to <b>Amazon</b>, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.</p><p><blockquote>即使Rivian的股价下跌95%,其股价也可能被高估,但如果您看好电动汽车行业,该公司仍然可以列入您的观察名单。IPO后,其资产负债表上有170亿美元现金,10万辆电动送货车车队订单将<b>亚马逊</b>以及外观时尚的卡车,Rivian有机会在未来五年内快速增长。但对于投资者来说,以这样的估值购买股票以换取公司盈利前发生的机会并不是一个明智的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian(目前)</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian(目前)</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is <b>Rivian</b>. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of <b>Tesla</b>, the market leader in electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.</p><p><blockquote>目前投资界最热门的公司之一是<b>Rivian</b>这家电动汽车初创公司刚刚上市,市值超过1000亿美元,考虑到它从未产生任何销售额,这令人震惊。随着<b>特斯拉</b>电动汽车市场的领导者,市值最近超过1万亿美元,围绕这个新行业的兴奋已经达到了白热化的程度。</blockquote></p><p> While Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Rivian的招股说明书令人兴奋,而且该公司正在寻求巨大的市场机会,但为所有这些潜力所付出的代价实在是太高了。以下是投资者目前需要远离Rivian股票的一些原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af764bd447f10cf89d9c92eb80ad9d14\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Rivian.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源:Rivian。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The company is pre-revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司是预营收</b></blockquote></p><p> At a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.</p><p><blockquote>从最基本的层面来看,Rivian并不是一家市值1060亿美元的合适投资公司,因为它从未产生过任何收入,更不用说利润或自由现金流了。根据S-1(公司在进行首次公开募股(IPO)之前必须向SEC提交的文件),Rivian第三季度生产了12辆汽车,全部出售给员工。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底,预计将生产1,200辆R1T(电动卡车),到2023年底,预计将生产55,400辆汽车,这将清除目前积压的订单。如果Rivian以67,500美元的平均价格(其网站上目前R1T的标准成本)出售这些车辆,那么从现在到2023年底,它将产生约37亿美元的收入。由于今年前六个月自由现金流为负17亿美元,这一假设的37亿美元收入甚至无法覆盖Rivian当前的费用基础(随着其开始大规模生产,费用基础可能会增长)。Rivian可能需要三到五年甚至更长时间才能开始为股东产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manufacturing cars is a tough business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造汽车是一项艰难的事业</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian目前的安装基础是65,000辆R1T和85,000辆RCV(其商用货车),使其每年能够生产150,000辆汽车。假设所有这些车辆的平均售价约为67,500美元,一旦Rivian达到规模,其年收入将超过100亿美元。人们可能会认为,在这种收入和制造水平下,Rivian将会盈利。但这是被误导的想法。</blockquote></p><p> If we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看它最接近的竞争对手特斯拉,一家纯电动汽车制造商,它在2018年交付了245,000辆汽车时才接近自由现金流盈亏平衡。制造汽车的成本很高,Rivian的投资者不应该指望利润率会很高,即使十年后Rivian达到某种程度的成熟度。Rivian需要开始快速增加汽车交付量,以便接近1060亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every automaker is all-in on electric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每个汽车制造商都全力投入电动汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉能够长期有增无减的增长原因之一是没有其他公司认真对待电动汽车。这不是我们目前所处的市场环境。大型汽车制造商以及特斯拉和其他纯电动汽车初创企业都在投资数百亿美元来参与未来十年的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford</b> has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S. <b>Toyota</b> has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特</b>已承诺投资114亿美元在美国投资电池和电动汽车制造。<b>丰田</b>仅电池开发和生产就投入了135亿美元。而这只是冰山一角。未来五年,电动汽车的竞争将非常激烈。从停滞开始,Rivian如果想在电动汽车市场获得可观的市场份额,就有一座艰难的山要爬。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't forget about the company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>别忘了公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to <b>Amazon</b>, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.</p><p><blockquote>即使Rivian的股价下跌95%,其股价也可能被高估,但如果您看好电动汽车行业,该公司仍然可以列入您的观察名单。IPO后,其资产负债表上有170亿美元现金,10万辆电动送货车车队订单将<b>亚马逊</b>以及外观时尚的卡车,Rivian有机会在未来五年内快速增长。但对于投资者来说,以这样的估值购买股票以换取公司盈利前发生的机会并不是一个明智的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/why-investors-need-to-stay-far-away-from-rivian/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/why-investors-need-to-stay-far-away-from-rivian/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100339971","content_text":"One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is Rivian. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of Tesla, the market leader in electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.\nWhile Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.\nImage source: Rivian.\nThe company is pre-revenue\nAt a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.\nBy the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.\nManufacturing cars is a tough business\nRivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.\nIf we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.\nEvery automaker is all-in on electric\nOne reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.\nFord has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S. Toyota has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.\nDon't forget about the company\nRivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to Amazon, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1832,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":34,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/601696434"}
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