6cdf22ea
2021-12-07
Everybody wants the stock market to rise including the FED
What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>有什么比Covid更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>
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The Federal Reserve<blockquote>有什么比Covid更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138852642","media":"Barrons","summary":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the ye","content":"<p>Now can we have a correction?</p><p><blockquote>现在我们能纠正一下吗？</blockquote></p><p> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>我们曾希望有更好的结果，比如年底前的融化。但由于发现了Covid-19的奥密克戎变种，股市在过去一周黑色星期五暴跌后暴跌，这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周下跌1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌319.26点，跌幅0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.6%。小盘股罗素2000指数本周下跌3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字未能反映出本周的波动程度。在周一小幅上涨后，道琼斯指数周二暴跌652.22点。周三，该股在早盘交易中上涨，随后回吐了部分涨幅，最终下跌461.68点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票收盘走高。周四，道琼斯指数创3月份以来最大涨幅，但苹果下跌0.6%，此前有报道称该公司正在让供应商为iPhone需求冷淡做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.</p><p><blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括Adobe(ADBE)、特斯拉(TSLA)和英伟达(NVDA)在内的大型、昂贵的成长型股票最终陷入抛售。Canaccord Genuity分析师马丁·罗伯格(Martin Roberge)表示：“鉴于许多‘成长型’公司的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。”</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.</p><p><blockquote>标普500本周收盘较2021年高点下跌3.5%，略低于该指数9月份的跌幅，当时所有人都预测回调从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了——事实证明财报季还不错——取而代之的是新的新冠病毒变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.</p><p><blockquote>奥密克戎本身就已经够糟糕的了——没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害——但随后美联储主席Jerome Powell不得不承认通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减可能需要比预期更快。</blockquote></p><p> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.</p><p><blockquote>CIBC Private Wealth US首席投资官戴夫·多纳贝迪安(Dave Donabedian)表示：“他非常依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些策略即将发生变化。”</blockquote></p><p> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.</p><p><blockquote>时机有点奇怪。有关奥密克戎在美国被发现的头条新闻已经让市场感到不安。鲍威尔让情况变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者不应该问他为什么选择那天发表评论，而应该问他的声明还能有多强烈。MKM Partners首席经济学家迈克尔·达尔达(Michael Darda)表示：“想象一下，如果没有这种变体，演讲听起来会是什么样子。”</blockquote></p><p> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场是绝对正确的。就业报告尽管出现了重大失误，但表现稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。美国供应管理协会的非制造业调查达到创纪录的69.1，而制造业指数也保持在60以上。</blockquote></p><p> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.</p><p><blockquote>数据如此之好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度增长的GDPNow估计最近达到了9.7%。定于本周五发布的消费者价格指数预计11月份上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市尚未做好准备。“鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌，”达尔达说。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.</p><p><blockquote>如果它变得更疯狂一点，不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大摩认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新冠病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote></p><p> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>虽然他们“不太担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席Jerome Powell暗示可能加速缩减资产购买后，策略师们认为其他地方的阻力正在增加。迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）领导的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：“缩减购债规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在复苏的现阶段一样。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.</p><p><blockquote>这些评论呼应了其他策略师的观点，包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是他们股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值也在下降。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师写道：“出于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级过程。”他们预测，标普500的远期市盈率将下降约12%，而且“随着股票投资者预期长期利率大幅上升，开始要求更高的风险溢价”，降幅可能会更深。</blockquote></p><p> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们“预计未来一段时间波动加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分且不完整的数据来评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险。”虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来看跌理由。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>有什么比Covid更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Scares the Stock Market More Than Covid? The Federal Reserve<blockquote>有什么比Covid更让股市害怕？美联储</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 13:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Now can we have a correction?</p><p><blockquote>现在我们能纠正一下吗？</blockquote></p><p> We’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>我们曾希望有更好的结果，比如年底前的融化。但由于发现了Covid-19的奥密克戎变种，股市在过去一周黑色星期五暴跌后暴跌，这似乎不太可能。标普500指数本周下跌1.2%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌319.26点，跌幅0.9%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.6%。小盘股罗素2000指数本周下跌3.9%，周三收于回调区域。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字未能反映出本周的波动程度。在周一小幅上涨后，道琼斯指数周二暴跌652.22点。周三，该股在早盘交易中上涨，随后回吐了部分涨幅，最终下跌461.68点，标普500只有包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在内的七只股票收盘走高。周四，道琼斯指数创3月份以来最大涨幅，但苹果下跌0.6%，此前有报道称该公司正在让供应商为iPhone需求冷淡做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> On Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.</p><p><blockquote>周五，纳斯达克遭受重创，包括Adobe(ADBE)、特斯拉(TSLA)和英伟达(NVDA)在内的大型、昂贵的成长型股票最终陷入抛售。Canaccord Genuity分析师马丁·罗伯格(Martin Roberge)表示：“鉴于许多‘成长型’公司的估值过高，后者在本周的调整中首当其冲。”</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.</p><p><blockquote>标普500本周收盘较2021年高点下跌3.5%，略低于该指数9月份的跌幅，当时所有人都预测回调从未到来。这次抛售看起来有更多的腿。对估值和即将到来的财报季的普遍担忧已经一去不复返了——事实证明财报季还不错——取而代之的是新的新冠病毒变种和美联储紧缩周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> Omicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.</p><p><blockquote>奥密克戎本身就已经够糟糕的了——没有人知道它会对经济造成多大伤害——但随后美联储主席Jerome Powell不得不承认通胀毕竟不是暂时的，缩减可能需要比预期更快。</blockquote></p><p> “He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.</p><p><blockquote>CIBC Private Wealth US首席投资官戴夫·多纳贝迪安(Dave Donabedian)表示：“他非常依赖这一信息，这告诉你一些策略即将发生变化。”</blockquote></p><p> The timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.</p><p><blockquote>时机有点奇怪。有关奥密克戎在美国被发现的头条新闻已经让市场感到不安。鲍威尔让情况变得更糟。尽管如此，也许投资者不应该问他为什么选择那天发表评论，而应该问他的声明还能有多强烈。MKM Partners首席经济学家迈克尔·达尔达(Michael Darda)表示：“想象一下，如果没有这种变体，演讲听起来会是什么样子。”</blockquote></p><p> The thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，鉴于美国经济的实力，鲍威尔采取鹰派立场是绝对正确的。就业报告尽管出现了重大失误，但表现稳健，失业率降至4.2%，参与率升至61.8%。美国供应管理协会的非制造业调查达到创纪录的69.1，而制造业指数也保持在60以上。</blockquote></p><p> The data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.</p><p><blockquote>数据如此之好，以至于亚特兰大联储对美国第四季度增长的GDPNow估计最近达到了9.7%。定于本周五发布的消费者价格指数预计11月份上涨0.65%。所有这些都表明，经济已为收紧货币政策做好了准备，即使股市尚未做好准备。“鲍威尔是对的，即使市场有点恐慌，”达尔达说。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.</p><p><blockquote>如果它变得更疯狂一点，不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大摩认为美联储对股市的威胁比奥密克戎更大</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师表示，股票投资者可能有比新冠病毒株的出现更重要的事情需要担心。</blockquote></p><p> While they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>虽然他们“不太担心奥密克戎是股市的主要风险因素”，但在美联储主席Jerome Powell暗示可能加速缩减资产购买后，策略师们认为其他地方的阻力正在增加。迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）领导的策略师在给客户的一份报告中写道：“缩减购债规模正在收紧市场，这将导致估值下降，就像在复苏的现阶段一样。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2480f1a0450a30811b2f0b6e1a23b008\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.</p><p><blockquote>这些评论呼应了其他策略师的观点，包括摩根大通的策略师，他们指出央行的鹰派转向是他们股市前景的主要风险。不过，尽管摩根大通周一重申，其基本情景是股市上涨将持续到明年，但摩根士丹利认为标普500呈走低趋势，估值也在下降。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利策略师写道：“出于多种原因，股市正在恢复九个多月前开始的降级过程。”他们预测，标普500的远期市盈率将下降约12%，而且“随着股票投资者预期长期利率大幅上升，开始要求更高的风险溢价”，降幅可能会更深。</blockquote></p><p> UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理策略师周一表示，他们“预计未来一段时间波动加剧，因为投资者试图根据不充分且不完整的数据来评估奥密克戎和美联储的风险。”虽然他们建议投资者不要仓促退出风险资产，但以马克·海菲尔为首的策略师表示，货币紧缩可能会给他们的基本情景带来看跌理由。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-covid-omicron-federal-reserve-51638575944","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138852642","content_text":"Now can we have a correction?\nWe’d hoped for something better, like a melt-up into the end of the year. But after watching the stock market get knocked down this past week after slumping on Black Friday—thanks to the discovery of the Omicron variant of Covid-19—it doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Not after the S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 319.26 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000, down 3.9% for the week, closed in correction territory on Wednesday.\nThose numbers fail to capture just how volatile the week was. After a small rally on Monday, the Dow tumbled 652.22 points on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it rallied in early trading before giving back those gains—and then some—to finish down 461.68 points, and only seven stocks in the S&P 500, including Apple (ticker: AAPL), managed to finish higher. On Thursday, the Dow had its biggest gain since March, but Apple dropped 0.6% following reports it was preparing suppliers for lukewarm iPhone demand.\nOn Friday, the Nasdaq got hammered as large, pricey growth stocks, including Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), finally got caught up in the selling. “Given the overvalued conditions of many ‘growth’ names, the latter bore the brunt of this week’s correction,” observes Canaccord Genuity analyst Martin Roberge.\nThe S&P 500 finished the week 3.5% off its 2021 high, which is a bit less than the index fell in September, when everyone was predicting a correction that never arrived. This selloff looks like it has more legs. Gone are the generalized fears about valuations and a looming earnings season—which turned out to be just fine—replaced by a new Covid variant and the start of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.\nOmicron was bad enough on its own—no one knows how much it will hurt the economy—but then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had to go and acknowledge that inflation isn’t transitory after all and the taper might have to go faster than expected.\n“He leaned on that message so strongly, it tells you some strategy change is coming,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US.\nThe timing was a bit strange. Headlines about Omicron being found in the U.S. were already troubling the markets. Powell made it worse. Still, rather than asking why he chose that day to make his comments, maybe investors should be asking how much stronger his statement could have been. “Imagine what the speech would have sounded like without the variant,” says MKM Partners Chief Economist Michael Darda.\nThe thing is, Powell is absolutely right to be tacking hawkish, given the strength of the U.S. economy. The jobs report, despite a big headline miss, was solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% and the participation rate rising to 61.8%. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing survey hit 69.1, a record, while the manufacturing index also remains above 60.\nThe data has been so good that the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for fourth-quarter growth in the U.S. recently hit 9.7%. The consumer price index, which is set to be released this coming Friday, is expected to have risen 0.65% in November. All of that suggests that the economy is ready for tighter monetary policy, even if the stock market isn’t. “Powell is right, even if the market freaks out a little bit,” Darda says.\nDon’t be surprised if it freaks out a bit more.\nMorgan Stanley Sees Fed as Bigger Threat to Stocks Than Omicron\nStock investors probably have more important things to worry about than the emergence of the new coronavirus strain, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.\nWhile they are “not that concerned about omicron as a major risk factor for equities,” the strategists see headwinds building elsewhere, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the possible accelerated tapering of asset purchases. “Tapering is tightening for the markets and it will lead to lower valuations like it always does at this stage of any recovery,” the strategists led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients.\n\nThe comments echo the views of other strategists, including those at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who singled out a hawkish turn by central banks as the main risk to their outlook for stocks. But while JPMorgan reiterated on Monday that its base-case scenario is for the equities rally to continue into next year, Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 trending lower, and valuations declining.\n“Equity markets are resuming their de-rating process that began over nine months ago for numerous reasons,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. They forecast that the S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio would fall by about 12%, with that decline potentially deeper “as equity investors start to demand much higher risk premiums in anticipation of considerably higher long-term interest rates.”\nUBS Global Wealth Management strategists said Monday they “expect a period of heightened volatility ahead as investors attempt to assess the risks from omicron and the Fed, based on insufficient and patchy data.” While they advise investors to refrain from a hasty exit from risk assets, the strategists, led by Mark Haefele, said monetary tightening could present a bear case to their base scenario.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":49,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/606969414"}
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