iamjingxian
2021-12-15
Cool
PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":607853454,"tweetId":"607853454","gmtCreate":1639527300070,"gmtModify":1639527300070,"author":{"id":3581622136793314,"idStr":"3581622136793314","authorId":3581622136793314,"authorIdStr":"3581622136793314","name":"iamjingxian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a7d55045354c9b1e5e00823a79034b4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":80,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cool</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cool</p></body></html>","text":"Cool","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607853454","repostId":1101216534,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101216534","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639525158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101216534?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-15 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101216534","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.</li> <li>The company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.</li> <li>I believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.</li> <li>Advancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，PayPal控股公司2021年的投资资本回报率较弱。</li><li>该公司目前的市盈率是GAAP预期市盈率的53倍，这使得股价被严重高估。</li><li>我认为PayPal的自由现金流计算并不公平，交易和信用损失被添加到公司的现金流中。</li><li>金融技术的进步将开始降低PayPal价值主张的好处。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股(PYPL)是一家拥有约4.16亿活跃商户账户的家庭在线支付公司，在过去6个月下滑30%后，目前正受到投资者的关注。该股在美国投资者中非常受欢迎，大约有245家对冲基金将其列入前十大持股。话虽如此，尽管大型机构和华尔街对该股持乐观态度，但我看不到大多数分析师对PayPal的看法。首先，尽管该公司股价在过去6个月内下跌了30%，但PayPal的GAAP预期市盈率仍为53倍。其次，从投资资本回报率来看，该公司的业绩不佳。第三，在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算与公司带来的实际现金量不准确。最后，随着印度金融科技的扩张表明交易中间人变得越来越多余，PayPal的商业模式似乎正在失败。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Underperformance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal表现不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> In order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我得出PayPal今年表现不佳的结论，我将PayPal的投资资本回报率与同行Visa Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：V）和万事达卡Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：MA）进行了比较。投资资本回报率是衡量管理层如何利用资本盈利的关键指标。以下是三家公司目前的ROIC。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL return on invested capital</p><p><blockquote>PYPL投资资本回报率</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> One of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.</p><p><blockquote>Visa和Mastercard在投资资本回报率方面已经并将继续优于PayPal的主要原因之一是因为它们的商业模式风险要小得多。Visa和Mastercard只是将任何额外风险转嫁给零售商和银行的支付处理商，而PayPal则必须承受商家违约或不付款的风险。PayPal被迫承受的额外风险会导致交易和信用损失，从而损害其盈利能力。从投资者的角度来看，这最终使PayPal的竞争对手获得了竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transaction And Credit Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易及信贷亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> From my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，用于计算PayPal现金流的方法存在一些虚假陈述。PayPal自由现金流计算的一个大问题是，他们能够将所有交易和信用损失加回现金流量表中。这约占PayPal 2020年运营现金流的30%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些交易和信用损失一直占PayPal年度自由现金流的很大一部分。这些交易和信用损失很容易解释。PayPal向信用不良的个人提供贷款，如果他们注销这些不良贷款（事实上他们做了很多），损失就会重新添加到PayPal的现金流量表中。我认为，投资者应该意识到其中涉及的风险，并在分析中考虑它时保持警惕。PayPal甚至在10-k表格中承认了这些不良贷款的风险。</blockquote></p><p> For this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.</p><p><blockquote>因此，PayPal现金流量表中添加的大量交易和信用损失代表了额外的风险，也让我相信他们的现金流计算略有歪曲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算PayPal股票的内在价值，我将提供一个贴现现金流模型。以下是计算计算所需的一些关键数据点的预测（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> For this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.</p><p><blockquote>在此计算中，我将减去PayPal的交易和信用损失，因为我之前曾表示，它们夸大了公司的现金流。此外，我使用3年移动平均线来预测D&A和资本支出成本。最后，我选择了8%的贴现率和3%的永久增长率。以下是我的贴现现金流模型。</blockquote></p><p> My final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>在计算DCF模型后，我的最终共识是，PayPal的内在价值比当前股票交易价格低77%。这使得PayPal股价被严重高估。此外，使用可比成本分析更深入地了解PayPal的估值，通过将该公司的EV/EBITDA比率与Visa和Mastercard进行比较，您可以再次看到PayPal股票目前与同行相比的定价有多高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为需要补充的是，PayPal的1年每股收益增长率仅为4%左右，与同行Visa和Mastercard相比较差。此外，尽管PayPal的EV/EBITDA高于万事达卡和Visa，但该公司的季度每股收益同比增长较低，并且大幅放缓。此外，随着该行业偏离他们的价值主张，我预计PayPal的增长未来不会回升。下图显示了三家公司的季度同比增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，尽管每股收益增长低于两个最大竞争对手，但PayPal的电动汽车与EBITDA之比更高。总结PayPal的估值，PayPal拥有成长型股票的价格，然而，该公司的增长率和增长催化剂更类似于退休价值股票。这进一步强化了我的信念，即我认为PayPal股票被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技的发展正在将PayPal抛在后面</b></blockquote></p><p> When PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.</p><p><blockquote>当PayPal最初发布其最初的概念和价值主张时，它风靡了世界，因为他们的商业模式是其他人从未见过的。话虽如此，PayPal未来面临的最大风险是，随着银行和其他新的金融科技解决方案将市场改变为只有银行对银行交易的市场，从而减少对PayPal等中间商的需求，它的时间可能正在流逝。你已经开始在中国和现在的印度等国家看到这一点。特别是印度，银行间的数字支付将在未来几年迅速增长。以下是印度数字支付的预测金额，单位为万亿卢比。</blockquote></p><p> Between China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和印度对金融科技和数字支付的采用，这两个国家正在为未来几年支付市场的走向奠定基础。不幸的是，对于PayPal来说，这似乎是一个商人和银行之间没有中间人的世界。万事达卡和维萨卡不承担这种风险，因为两家公司都只处理付款，使它们成为更好的另类投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么我可能是错的和最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> To conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.</p><p><blockquote>在结束我看跌PayPal的论点时，我想说的是，如果PayPal能够在几个季度取得不错的业绩，那么短期内我对股价的看法可能是错误的，因为华尔街对该公司的喜爱可能会推动估值高一点。话虽如此，我不得不说，从长远来看，这绝对是我想要避免的职位。在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算值得怀疑，该公司目前的定价过高，几乎没有增长，而且其商业模式可能会开始受到影响。出于这些原因，我认为PayPal在未来1-2年内将再下跌30-40%。尽管投资者很想谈论这家公司过去的业绩，但过去的业绩并不等同于未来的业绩。因此，我不得不说，如果你决定购买一些PayPal股票，我想你肯定会付钱给pal。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Holdings: Buying This Dip Will Make You Pay Pal<blockquote>PayPal控股：逢低买入会让你付钱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-15 07:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>PayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.</li> <li>The company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.</li> <li>I believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.</li> <li>Advancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>与同行相比，PayPal控股公司2021年的投资资本回报率较弱。</li><li>该公司目前的市盈率是GAAP预期市盈率的53倍，这使得股价被严重高估。</li><li>我认为PayPal的自由现金流计算并不公平，交易和信用损失被添加到公司的现金流中。</li><li>金融技术的进步将开始降低PayPal价值主张的好处。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> PayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal控股(PYPL)是一家拥有约4.16亿活跃商户账户的家庭在线支付公司，在过去6个月下滑30%后，目前正受到投资者的关注。该股在美国投资者中非常受欢迎，大约有245家对冲基金将其列入前十大持股。话虽如此，尽管大型机构和华尔街对该股持乐观态度，但我看不到大多数分析师对PayPal的看法。首先，尽管该公司股价在过去6个月内下跌了30%，但PayPal的GAAP预期市盈率仍为53倍。其次，从投资资本回报率来看，该公司的业绩不佳。第三，在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算与公司带来的实际现金量不准确。最后，随着印度金融科技的扩张表明交易中间人变得越来越多余，PayPal的商业模式似乎正在失败。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PayPal's Underperformance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PayPal表现不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> In order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我得出PayPal今年表现不佳的结论，我将PayPal的投资资本回报率与同行Visa Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：V）和万事达卡Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：MA）进行了比较。投资资本回报率是衡量管理层如何利用资本盈利的关键指标。以下是三家公司目前的ROIC。</blockquote></p><p> PYPL return on invested capital</p><p><blockquote>PYPL投资资本回报率</blockquote></p><p> Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p> One of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.</p><p><blockquote>Visa和Mastercard在投资资本回报率方面已经并将继续优于PayPal的主要原因之一是因为它们的商业模式风险要小得多。Visa和Mastercard只是将任何额外风险转嫁给零售商和银行的支付处理商，而PayPal则必须承受商家违约或不付款的风险。PayPal被迫承受的额外风险会导致交易和信用损失，从而损害其盈利能力。从投资者的角度来看，这最终使PayPal的竞争对手获得了竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Transaction And Credit Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易及信贷亏损</b></blockquote></p><p> From my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，用于计算PayPal现金流的方法存在一些虚假陈述。PayPal自由现金流计算的一个大问题是，他们能够将所有交易和信用损失加回现金流量表中。这约占PayPal 2020年运营现金流的30%。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，这些交易和信用损失一直占PayPal年度自由现金流的很大一部分。这些交易和信用损失很容易解释。PayPal向信用不良的个人提供贷款，如果他们注销这些不良贷款（事实上他们做了很多），损失就会重新添加到PayPal的现金流量表中。我认为，投资者应该意识到其中涉及的风险，并在分析中考虑它时保持警惕。PayPal甚至在10-k表格中承认了这些不良贷款的风险。</blockquote></p><p> For this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.</p><p><blockquote>因此，PayPal现金流量表中添加的大量交易和信用损失代表了额外的风险，也让我相信他们的现金流计算略有歪曲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).</p><p><blockquote>为了计算PayPal股票的内在价值，我将提供一个贴现现金流模型。以下是计算计算所需的一些关键数据点的预测（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p> For this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.</p><p><blockquote>在此计算中，我将减去PayPal的交易和信用损失，因为我之前曾表示，它们夸大了公司的现金流。此外，我使用3年移动平均线来预测D&A和资本支出成本。最后，我选择了8%的贴现率和3%的永久增长率。以下是我的贴现现金流模型。</blockquote></p><p> My final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>在计算DCF模型后，我的最终共识是，PayPal的内在价值比当前股票交易价格低77%。这使得PayPal股价被严重高估。此外，使用可比成本分析更深入地了解PayPal的估值，通过将该公司的EV/EBITDA比率与Visa和Mastercard进行比较，您可以再次看到PayPal股票目前与同行相比的定价有多高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为需要补充的是，PayPal的1年每股收益增长率仅为4%左右，与同行Visa和Mastercard相比较差。此外，尽管PayPal的EV/EBITDA高于万事达卡和Visa，但该公司的季度每股收益同比增长较低，并且大幅放缓。此外，随着该行业偏离他们的价值主张，我预计PayPal的增长未来不会回升。下图显示了三家公司的季度同比增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，尽管每股收益增长低于两个最大竞争对手，但PayPal的电动汽车与EBITDA之比更高。总结PayPal的估值，PayPal拥有成长型股票的价格，然而，该公司的增长率和增长催化剂更类似于退休价值股票。这进一步强化了我的信念，即我认为PayPal股票被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技的发展正在将PayPal抛在后面</b></blockquote></p><p> When PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.</p><p><blockquote>当PayPal最初发布其最初的概念和价值主张时，它风靡了世界，因为他们的商业模式是其他人从未见过的。话虽如此，PayPal未来面临的最大风险是，随着银行和其他新的金融科技解决方案将市场改变为只有银行对银行交易的市场，从而减少对PayPal等中间商的需求，它的时间可能正在流逝。你已经开始在中国和现在的印度等国家看到这一点。特别是印度，银行间的数字支付将在未来几年迅速增长。以下是印度数字支付的预测金额，单位为万亿卢比。</blockquote></p><p> Between China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和印度对金融科技和数字支付的采用，这两个国家正在为未来几年支付市场的走向奠定基础。不幸的是，对于PayPal来说，这似乎是一个商人和银行之间没有中间人的世界。万事达卡和维萨卡不承担这种风险，因为两家公司都只处理付款，使它们成为更好的另类投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么我可能是错的和最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> To conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.</p><p><blockquote>在结束我看跌PayPal的论点时，我想说的是，如果PayPal能够在几个季度取得不错的业绩，那么短期内我对股价的看法可能是错误的，因为华尔街对该公司的喜爱可能会推动估值高一点。话虽如此，我不得不说，从长远来看，这绝对是我想要避免的职位。在我看来，PayPal的自由现金流计算值得怀疑，该公司目前的定价过高，几乎没有增长，而且其商业模式可能会开始受到影响。出于这些原因，我认为PayPal在未来1-2年内将再下跌30-40%。尽管投资者很想谈论这家公司过去的业绩，但过去的业绩并不等同于未来的业绩。因此，我不得不说，如果你决定购买一些PayPal股票，我想你肯定会付钱给pal。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475141-paypal-holdings-buying-dip-unattractive\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475141-paypal-holdings-buying-dip-unattractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101216534","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal Holdings has demonstrated weak returns on invested capital in 2021 relative to their peers.\nThe company is currently trading at 53 times its GAAP forward earnings making shares egregiously over-priced.\nI believe that PayPal's FCF calculation is not a fair representation with transaction and credit losses being added to the company's cashflow.\nAdvancement in financial technology will begin to reduce the benefit of PayPal's value proposition.\n\n\n\nInvestment Thesis\nPayPal Holdings (PYPL), the household online payment firm with around 416 million active merchant accounts is currently gaining investors attention after sliding 30% over the last 6 months. The stock is extremely popular amongst American investors as approximately 245 hedge funds have it in their top 10 holdings. That being said, despite the large institutions and Wall Street's optimism around the stock, I fail to see what the majority of analysts see in PayPal. To begin with, despite the company's stock sliding 30% over the last 6 months, PayPal is still trading at a GAAP forward Price-to-earnings multiple of 53. Secondly, the company has had poor performance when looking at their return on invested capital. Thirdly, PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are inaccurate to the actual volume of cash the company is bringing in. Lastly, PayPal's business model appears to be fizzling out as India's FinTech expansion has shown that a transaction middleman is becoming increasingly redundant.\n\nPayPal's Underperformance\nIn order for me to come to the conclusion that PayPal has under-performed this year, I had compared the returns on invested capital of PayPal versus peers Visa Inc (NYSE:V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE:MA). The return on invested capital is a key metric measuring how well management is at deploying their capital profitably. The following are the three companies current ROIC.\n\nPYPL return on invested capital\nData by YCharts\nOne of the main reasons why Visa and Mastercard has and will continue to outperform PayPal in returns on invested capital is because their business models are much less risky. Visa and Mastercard are just payment processors who pass on any additional risks to retailers and banks, whereas PayPal has to endure the risk of a merchant either defaulting or not making a payment. That additional risk PayPal is forced to endure leads to transaction and credit losses which hurts their profitability. This ultimately gives PayPal's competitors a competitive advantage when looking through the lens of an investor.\n\nTransaction And Credit Losses\nFrom my perspective, the method in which is used to calculate PayPal's cashflows comes with some misrepresentations. The big problem with PayPal's FCF calculation is that they are able to add back all of their transaction and credit losses back onto their cashflow statement. This made up around 30% of PayPal's operating cashflow in 2020.\n\nAs you can see, these transaction and credit losses have been making up a solid chunk of PayPal's annual free cashflow. These transaction and credit losses are simple to explain. PayPal provides loans to individuals with bad credit, and should they write off those bad loans (which they're in fact doing a lot of), the losses are added back on PayPal's cashflow statement. I am of the opinion that investors should be aware of the risks involved in this and be vigilant when accounting it in your analysis. PayPal even acknowledges the risk of these bad loans in their 10-k form.\n\nFor this reason, the large amount of transaction and credit losses being added back onto PayPal's cashflow statement represent additional risk and also leads me to believe that their cashflow calculation is slightly misrepresented.\n\nValuation\nIn order to compute the intrinsic value of PayPal stock, I will provide a discount cashflow model. The following is a forecast of some key data points needed to compute the calculation (all figures in millions USD).\n\nFor this calculation, I will be subtracting PayPal's transaction and credit losses as I've earlier stated that they overstate the company's cashflow. Additionally, I used 3 year moving averages to forecast D&A and CapEx costs. Lastly, I chose a discount rate of 8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The following is my discount cashflow model.\nMy final consensus after computing my DCF model is that PayPal's intrinsic value is 77% lower than where shares are currently trading. This makes PayPal shares egregiously overvalued. Furthermore, looking deeper at PayPal's valuation using a comparable cost analysis, you can once again see by comparing the company's EV/EBITDA ratio to Visa and Mastercard, how overpriced PayPal shares are currently when compared to its peers.\n\nI thought it would be important to add that PayPal's 1 year EPS growth rate is only about 4%, which compared to peers Visa and Mastercard is worse. Additionally, despite PayPal having a higher EV/EBITDA than both Mastercard and Visa, the company's YoY quarterly EPS growth has been lower and has shown a massive slowdown. Moreover, I don't expect PayPal's growth to pick up in the future as the industry moves away from their value proposition. The following is a chart representing quarterly YoY growth of the three companies.\n\nAs you can see, PayPal's EV-to-EBITDA is higher, despite lower EPS growth then their two largest rivals. To conclude on PayPal's valuation, PayPal has the price of a growth stock however, the company's growth rate and growth catalyst closer resembles a retirement value stock. This further amplifies my conviction that in my opinion PayPal shares are overvalued.\n\nFinTech Evolution Is Leaving PayPal Behind\nWhen PayPal originally released its initial concept and value proposition, it took the world by storm as their business model was nothing others had seen before. That being said, the greatest risk PayPal faces in the future is that its clock may be ticking as banks and other new FinTech solutions change the market to where we just have bank-to-bank transactions, leaving less need for a middleman such as PayPal. You're already beginning to see this in countries such as China and now India. India specifically is set to have bank-to-bank digital payments increase rapidly over the next couple of years. The following is the forecasted dollar amount of digital payments in India in trillions of rupees.\n\nBetween China and India's adoption of FinTech and digital payments, the countries are setting the stage as to where the payment market will be headed in the next couple of years. Unfortunately for PayPal, that seems to be a world without a middleman between a merchant and a bank. Mastercard and Visa don't carry this risk because both companies just process payments, leaving them to be much better alternative investments.\n\n\nWhy I Could Be Wrong And Final Thoughts\nTo conclude my bearish PayPal thesis, I would like to say that if PayPal is able to pull together a couple of decent quarters, then in the short-term I could be wrong about the stock price as Wall Street's fondness for the company could push the valuation a little bit higher. That being said, I have to say that longer-term this is definitely a position I would want to avoid. PayPal's FCF calculations in my opinion are questionable, the company is currently egregiously overpriced with little growth, and its business model could begin to be fazed out down the line. For these reasons, I believe that PayPal is poised to fall by an additional 30-40% over the next 1-2 years. As much as investors want to talk about the past performance for this company, past performance does not equate to future performance. Therefore, I have to say that if you decide to purchase some PayPal shares, I think you will certainly pay pal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2867,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/607853454"}
精彩评论