Really?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-12-06

Really?

The Housing Boom Could Last for a Decade. Buy These Stocks.<blockquote>房地产繁荣可能会持续十年。买这些股票。</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":608557053,"tweetId":"608557053","gmtCreate":1638764674399,"gmtModify":1638764675090,"author":{"id":3575974639321365,"idStr":"3575974639321365","authorId":3575974639321365,"authorIdStr":"3575974639321365","name":"Chris68","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae39a12c3ba237f3b001689ec9a549b","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":148,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Really?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Really?</body></html>","text":"Really?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608557053","repostId":1155963993,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155963993","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638756867,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155963993?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Housing Boom Could Last for a Decade. Buy These Stocks.<blockquote>房地产繁荣可能会持续十年。买这些股票。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155963993","media":"Barron's","summary":"Housing is booming. Just take a look at Century Communities ’ development in Tumwater, Wash., where ","content":" Housing is booming. Just take a look at Century Communities ’ development in Tumwater, Wash., where more than 140 homes, at prices as high as $500,000, have been sold this year. Tumwater is viewed as a suburb of Seattle—even at 60 miles away. It’s a scene that has been repeated over the past two years in markets all across the country.<blockquote>房地产正在蓬勃发展。看看Century Communities在华盛顿州Tumwater的开发项目就知道了。今年已有140多套住宅以高达50万美元的价格售出。Tumwater被视为西雅图的一个郊区——即使在60英里之外。这一幕在过去两年里在全国各地的市场上重演。</blockquote> Are we nearing a peak?<blockquote>我们正在接近顶峰吗？</blockquote> No, say the housing bulls on Wall Street, who argue that this is an upturn that could last for a decade. Millions of millennials are now at a point in their lives when they are seeking single-family homes in the suburbs and exurbs. They are entering a market still chastened by an unprecedented collapse in housing more than a decade ago.<blockquote>不，华尔街的房地产多头说，他们认为这是一个可能持续十年的好转。数百万千禧一代现在正处于人生的某个阶段，他们正在郊区和远郊寻找独栋住宅。他们进入的市场仍然受到十多年前前所未有的房地产崩溃的考验。</blockquote> “This market is primarily driven by a lack of supply, not excess demand,” says Stephen Kim, a housing analyst at Evercore ISI. “The supply shortage built up over 10 years, and it won’t go away quickly.”<blockquote>Evercore ISI住房分析师Stephen Kim表示：“这个市场主要是由供应不足而不是需求过剩推动的。”“供应短缺已经持续了10年，而且不会很快消失。”</blockquote> The numbers support Kim’s assertion. Inventories of existing homes remain near historically low levels. Construction starts on new single-family housing, meanwhile, will finally top one million this year after averaging fewer than 750,000 in the previous 10 years. That would still be below the 1.6 million annual starts from 2004 to 2006, the peak years of the housing bubble.<blockquote>这些数字支持了金的说法。现房库存仍接近历史低位。与此同时，新单户住宅的开工量在过去10年平均不到75万套之后，今年最终将突破100万套。这仍低于2004年至2006年（房地产泡沫的高峰期）每年160万套房屋的开工量。</blockquote> “The industry would need to sustain a two-million-starts pace for a decade to bring the industry out of its current underbuilt situation,” Kim argues.<blockquote>金认为：“该行业需要在十年内保持200万的开工速度，才能使该行业摆脱目前建设不足的局面。”</blockquote> The large home builders— D.R. Horton(ticker: DHI), Lennar(LEN), PulteGroup(PHM), and Toll Brothers(TOL)—are well positioned to benefit from the demographic trends. Their stocks trade for an average of just seven times projected 2022 earnings, among the lowest multiples in the stock market.<blockquote>大型房屋建筑商。Horton（股票代码：DHI）、Lennar（LEN）、PulteGroup（PHM）和Toll Brothers（TOL）——处于有利地位，可以从人口趋势中受益。他们的股票平均交易价格仅为2022年预计市盈率的七倍，是股市中最低的市盈率之一。</blockquote> Small-cap builders Century Communities(CCS) and Meritage Homes(MTH) are even cheaper, fetching about five times forward earnings. The S&amp;P 500 indextrades at more than 20 times estimated 2022 profits.<blockquote>小型建筑商Century Communities(CCS)和Meritage Homes(MTH)的价格甚至更便宜，预期市盈率约为五倍。标普500指数的交易价格是2022年预期利润的20多倍。</blockquote> “The industry is completely different than it used to be,” says Bill Smead, a manager of the Smead Value fund, which holds D.R. Horton and Lennar. “It’s going from being fragmented to being aggregated in a relatively small number of publicly traded hands, and there is a secular growth story due to demographics that mutes a lot of the normal cyclicality.”<blockquote>“这个行业与以前完全不同，”持有D.R.的Smead Value基金经理Bill Smead表示。霍顿和伦纳。“它正在从分散到聚集在相对较少的公开交易手中，而且由于人口统计数据抑制了很多正常的周期性，因此存在长期增长的故事。”</blockquote> Nineteen publicly traded builders now command more than 30% of the new-home market, against 21% a decade ago. The builders have strong balance sheets and less land inventory, and are poised to ramp up capital returns to investors in the coming years. Dividends, now averaging just 1% across the industry, should rise along with share repurchases.<blockquote>目前，19家上市建筑商占据了新房市场30%以上的份额，而十年前这一比例为21%。建筑商拥有强劲的资产负债表和较少的土地库存，并准备在未来几年提高投资者的资本回报。目前整个行业的股息平均仅为1%，应该会随着股票回购而上升。</blockquote> In the past, home builders plowed profits into land purchases to enable future construction. That kept a lid on valuations, as investors worried that land-heavy balance sheets would become liabilities in a downturn.<blockquote>过去，房屋建筑商将利润投入土地购买，以支持未来的建设。这限制了估值，因为投资者担心大量土地的资产负债表在经济低迷时期会变成负债。</blockquote> Home builders are now reaching deals with land developers that give them the option to purchase home-building lots rather than buying and holding land. At Horton, the percentage of owned lots has fallen to 24% from 43% since 2018.<blockquote>房屋建筑商现在正在与土地开发商达成协议，让他们可以选择购买房屋建筑用地，而不是购买和持有土地。在霍顿，自2018年以来，自有地块的比例已从43%降至24%。</blockquote> “It’s not like the top of the last cycle, when home builders owned a ton of lots purchased with borrowed money,” Smead says. The companies, he says, have gone from being “land developers” to “home manufacturers”—increasing returns and lowering risk. Pulte has scarcely any net debt, and Horton has little net debt at its core home-building business.<blockquote>“这不像上一个周期的顶部，当时房屋建筑商拥有大量用借来的钱购买的地块，”斯米德说。他说，这些公司已经从“土地开发商”变成了“房屋制造商”——增加了回报，降低了风险。普尔特几乎没有任何净债务，霍顿的核心住宅建筑业务也几乎没有净债务。</blockquote> J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Rehaut has estimated that the average net debt-to-capital ratio on home builders’ balance sheets will fall to a negative 4% by the end of 2023 from 15% today.<blockquote>摩根大通分析师Michael Rehaut估计，到2023年底，房屋建筑商资产负债表上的平均净债务与资本比率将从目前的15%降至负4%。</blockquote> He sees the companies as capable of buying back 20% of their shares in the next two years. The repurchases have already ramped up. Pulte bought back 4% of its stock in the first nine months of 2021, and D.R. Horton repurchased 2% in its just-completed fiscal year.<blockquote>他认为这些公司有能力在未来两年内回购20%的股份。回购已经加大。Pulte在2021年前9个月回购了4%的股票，D.R.霍顿在刚刚结束的财年回购了2%的股份。</blockquote> Barron’s has written favorably on home builders this year, including articles on Toll in January and Lennar in June.<blockquote>《巴伦周刊》今年对房屋建筑商发表了好评，包括1月份关于Toll和6月份关于Lennar的文章。</blockquote> Most public builders focus on entry-level and move-up buyers on the outskirts of major cities with average selling prices around $400,000. Toll, however, focuses on the high end and has an average selling price of close to $900,000.<blockquote>大多数公共建筑商专注于大城市郊区的入门级和升级型买家，平均售价在40万美元左右。然而，Toll专注于高端，平均售价接近90万美元。</blockquote> Smead sees annual earnings growth of 10% to 15% on average for the home builders over the next decade, although the gains could be lumpy.<blockquote>Smead预计，未来十年，房屋建筑商的平均年收入将增长10%至15%，尽管增长可能会不稳定。</blockquote> Evercore’s Kim says that 2022 Street earnings estimates are too low, arguing that current earnings reflect homes ordered several quarters ago, when prices were lower and the cost of lumber, a major input, much higher.<blockquote>Evercore的Kim表示，2022年街头盈利预期太低，他认为当前盈利反映了几个季度前订购的房屋，当时价格较低，而木材（一种主要投入）的成本要高得多。</blockquote> “The supply-chain disruptions have pushed some of the upside into next year,” he says.<blockquote>“供应链中断将一些上涨空间推到了明年，”他说。</blockquote> The stocks aren’t trading as cheaply based on price-to-book ratios, a popular valuation measure for home builders. The group now averages about 1.4 times projected 2022 year-end book value. Bulls argue that earnings are more durable than in the past and that the stocks should trade based on earnings and not book value.<blockquote>根据市净率（房屋建筑商流行的估值指标），这些股票的交易价格并不便宜。该集团目前平均约为预计2022年底账面价值的1.4倍。看多者认为，收益比过去更持久，股票应该根据收益而不是账面价值进行交易。</blockquote> Smead’s view is that the persistently low valuations reflect the searing investor memories of the 2004-07 housing bubble and subsequent crash, when stocks like Toll and D.R. Horton fell as much as 85%.<blockquote>Smead认为，持续的低估值反映了投资者对2004-07年房地产泡沫和随后崩盘的灼热记忆，当时Toll和D.R.等股票。霍顿跌幅高达85%。</blockquote> “If you compare this with the 2007-to-2009 period, you have two large demographic groups—millennials and baby boomers—looking for housing and not finding a lot of supply out there,” says Jay McCanless, the housing analyst at Wedbush Securities.<blockquote>韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)住房分析师杰伊·麦坎利斯(Jay McCanless)表示：“如果你将此与2007年至2009年期间进行比较，你会发现有两大人口群体——千禧一代和婴儿潮一代——正在寻找住房，但却没有找到大量供应。”。</blockquote> The work-from-home trend is another favorable trend, as Americans move out of apartments and into single-family homes, while homeowners seek larger houses with home offices and other amenities.<blockquote>在家工作的趋势是另一个有利的趋势，因为美国人搬出公寓，搬进独栋住宅，而房主则寻求带有家庭办公室和其他便利设施的更大房子。</blockquote> The bear case for housing is that slowing population growth will limit demand, according to Zelman &amp; Associates, the firm headed by the influential housing analyst Ivy Zelman.<blockquote>由颇具影响力的房地产分析师艾薇·泽尔曼(Ivy Zelman)领导的泽尔曼联合公司(Zelman&amp;Associates)表示，房地产市场的悲观理由是人口增长放缓将限制需求。</blockquote> The firm projects that the U.S. population will grow at just 4% in the current decade, down from 7.4% in 2010-20, which was the second-slowest percentage gain in history. “Population growth—the crucial underpinning of incremental housing demand—is on a troubling trajectory,” the firm wrote in a report this summer. “The current pace of production already surpasses demographically supported normalized demand.”<blockquote>该公司预计，美国人口在当前十年将仅增长4%，低于2010-20年的7.4%，这是历史上第二慢的百分比增长。该公司在今年夏天的一份报告中写道：“人口增长——住房需求增量的关键基础——正处于令人不安的轨道上。”“目前的生产速度已经超过了人口支持的正常化需求。”</blockquote> More near term, there is concern that the critical spring selling season next year may not be as robust as 2021’s, particularly if ultralow 30-year mortgage rates, now just over 3%, rise toward 4%. The rally in housing prices may have already stalled. The S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index showed a 19.5% annual gain in September, down from 19.8% in August.<blockquote>从近期来看，人们担心明年关键的春季销售季节可能不会像2021年那样强劲，特别是如果目前略高于3%的超低30年期抵押贷款利率升至4%。房价的涨势可能已经停滞。S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller美国全国房价NSA指数显示，9月份年增长率为19.5%，低于8月份的19.8%。</blockquote> Industry executives say they aren’t worried. “I think it’s pretty clear that the market is not as white hot right now as it was in the spring, but we’re still seeing very strong demand,” said Michael Murray, co-chief operating officer at D.R. Horton, on an earnings conference call in November.<blockquote>行业高管表示他们并不担心。D.R.联席首席运营官迈克尔·默里(Michael Murray)表示：“我认为很明显，现在的市场并不像春季那样白热化，但我们仍然看到非常强劲的需求。”霍顿在11月份的收益电话会议上。</blockquote> Dale and Robert Francescon, the co-CEOs of Century Communities, tell Barron’s, “With interest rates still at historic lows, demand has been consistently strong throughout our national footprint of more than 40 markets.”<blockquote>Century Communities联合首席执行官Dale和Robert Francescon告诉《巴伦周刊》，“由于利率仍处于历史低位，我们全国40多个市场的需求一直强劲。”</blockquote> And a bit of a cool-off may not be such a bad thing for the red-hot housing market, says Larry Pitkowsky, manager of the GoodHaven fund, which owns Lennar shares. “A more normalized pace of demand might be better, as Lennar and its brethren are striving to balance very strong demand with higher raw materials and tight labor markets, and a sensible desire to protect margins,” he says.<blockquote>持有Lennar股票的GoodHaven基金经理拉里·皮特科斯基(Larry Pitkowsky)表示，对于火热的房地产市场来说，一点降温可能并不是一件坏事。他表示：“更正常的需求速度可能会更好，因为Lennar及其兄弟公司正在努力平衡非常强劲的需求与更高的原材料和紧张的劳动力市场，以及保护利润率的合理愿望。”</blockquote> D.R. Horton<blockquote>D.R.霍顿</blockquote> The industry leader constructs roughly one in 10 new homes in the country—over 80,000 in its latest fiscal year. It has the industry’s largest market value at $37 billion and one of the highest returns on equity at 31%. Entry-level homes account for about half of its business.<blockquote>这家行业领导者在该国建造了大约十分之一的新房——在最近一个财年超过80,000套。它拥有业内最大的市值，为370亿美元，股本回报率最高的公司之一，为31%。入门级住宅约占其业务的一半。</blockquote> “Horton has done a superb job bringing down debt levels while at the same time growing the business and positioning itself for the future,” says Wedbush’s McCanless. Horton now controls over 500,000 lots—enough for more than five years of building at 2022’s expected pace.<blockquote>韦德布什的麦肯莱斯表示：“霍顿在降低债务水平方面做得非常出色，同时发展了业务并为未来做好了定位。”霍顿现在控制着超过50万块土地，足以按照2022年的预期速度进行五年多的建设。</blockquote> Its shares, at a recent $103, trade for about seven times the current earnings consensus of $14.22 a share for the company’s fiscal year ending in September. The shares yield 1%.<blockquote>其股价最近为103美元，约为该公司截至9月份的财年每股收益预期14.22美元的七倍。股票收益率为1%。</blockquote> Kim of Evercore ISI sees earnings of about $18 a share, arguing that Horton’s gross margins, now about 27%, can hit 30%. He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $163.<blockquote>Evercore ISI的Kim预计每股收益约为18美元，他认为Horton的毛利率目前约为27%，可以达到30%。他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为163美元。</blockquote> Lennar<blockquote>伦纳尔</blockquote> The No. 2 home builder in terms of market value has done the best job among its peers of developing related businesses. These include multifamily and single-family rental housing ventures and investments like a stake in Opendoor Technologies(OPEN), the online home buyer.<blockquote>这家市值排名第二的房屋建筑商在发展相关业务方面在同行中做得最好。其中包括多户和单户租赁住房企业以及在线购房者Opendoor Technologies(OPEN)的股份等投资。</blockquote> Lennar plans to spin off a group of noncore businesses, although it hasn’t yet provided details. Shares, at about $113, trade for 7.7 times projected 2022 earnings of almost $15 a share.<blockquote>Lennar计划剥离一组非核心业务，但尚未提供细节。股价约为113美元，是2022年预计每股收益近15美元的7.7倍。</blockquote> Chairman Stuart Miller says that “the best of times” for home builders still have a way to go. “Since new-home construction cannot ramp quickly enough to fill the void of the production deficit that persisted over the past decade, short supply is likely to remain for some time to come,” he said on the company’s latest earnings conference call.<blockquote>董事长斯图尔特·米勒表示，房屋建筑商的“最佳时期”还有很长的路要走。他在该公司最新的财报电话会议上表示：“由于新房建设无法以足够快的速度增长来填补过去十年持续存在的生产赤字，因此供应短缺可能会在未来一段时间内持续存在。”</blockquote> Investors can invest alongside Miller in the company’s supervoting B shares, which trade at $92, a big discount to the more-liquid Class A shares.<blockquote>投资者可以与米勒一起投资该公司具有超级投票权的B股，该股的交易价格为92美元，比流动性更强的A类股有很大折扣。</blockquote> GoodHaven’s Pitkowsky also favors the B shares, and they are probably the best way for retail investors to play Lennar, given the possibility that the share classes combine.<blockquote>GoodHaven的Pitkowsky也青睐B股，考虑到股票类别合并的可能性，它们可能是散户投资者玩Lennar的最佳方式。</blockquote> Toll Brothers<blockquote>托尔兄弟</blockquote> With its luxury focus, Toll is the most differentiated of the major home builders, and its competitive position is probably the strongest, since it competes primarily with smaller private builders.<blockquote>凭借其对奢侈品的关注，Toll是主要住宅建筑商中最具差异化的，其竞争地位可能是最强的，因为它主要与规模较小的私人建筑商竞争。</blockquote> Toll shares, at about $68, trade for 7.6 times projected earnings of $9 a share in the company’s fiscal year ending in October 2022.<blockquote>Toll股价约为68美元，是该公司截至2022年10月的财年预计每股收益9美元的7.6倍。</blockquote> “The higher end of the market has seen the biggest reversal of fortune—in a good way,” says Kim, noting weakness before the pandemic. Toll is benefiting from a larger prepandemic land position than peers. He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $86.<blockquote>金表示：“高端市场的命运发生了最大的逆转——以一种好的方式。”他指出了大流行之前的疲软。Toll受益于比同行更大的大流行前土地地位。他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为86美元。</blockquote> Higher-income white-collar workers—Toll’s core customer base—tend to have more work-from-home flexibility, and that is translating into strong demand, with the average buyer spending $160,000 on extras like home offices and multigenerational suites. And with longer construction periods than peers on its homes that can stretch a year or more, Toll’s earnings gains could play out deep into 2022.<blockquote>高收入白领——Toll的核心客户群——往往拥有更大的在家工作灵活性，这转化为强劲的需求，买家平均在家庭办公室和多代套房等额外设施上花费16万美元。由于其房屋建设周期比同行更长，可以持续一年或更长，Toll的盈利增长可能会持续到2022年。</blockquote> The company has developed what it calls “affordable luxury” homes in less expensive markets like South Carolina, with homes that sell on average for about $740,000 and make up about 40% of its business.<blockquote>该公司在南卡罗来纳州等较便宜的市场开发了其评级的“经济适用房”，这些房屋的平均售价约为74万美元，约占其业务的40%。</blockquote> PulteGroup<blockquote>普尔特集团</blockquote> The No. 3 U.S. home builder caters mainly to first-time and move-up buyers. Through its Del Webb and DiVosta brands, it builds “active adult” communities catering to those near, and in, retirement.<blockquote>这家美国第三大住宅建筑商主要为首次购房者和搬家购房者提供服务。通过其Del Webb和DiVosta品牌，它建立了“活跃的成人”社区，为即将退休和即将退休的人提供服务。</blockquote> Its shares, at about $52, are among the cheapest of its large-cap peers at under six times projected 2022 earnings.<blockquote>其股价约为52美元，是大盘股中最便宜的之一，不到2022年预计市盈率的六倍。</blockquote> As more of a build-to-order company than D.R. Horton and Lennar, Pulte’s earnings have more upside potential, since its current closings reflect older orders. And sales prices on new orders were up 26% year over year in the third quarter, pointing to higher 2022 earnings.<blockquote>与其说是D.R.，不如说是一家按订单生产的公司。Horton和Lennar，Pulte的盈利有更大的上涨潜力，因为其目前的成交反映了旧订单。第三季度新订单销售价格同比增长26%，表明2022年盈利将更高。</blockquote> The company has one of the best balance sheets among its peers, with minimal net debt. J.P. Morgan’s Rehaut is bullish on the company, citing its financial strength and a return on equity of more than 25%. He has a price target of $71.<blockquote>该公司拥有同行中最好的资产负债表之一，净债务最少。摩根大通的Rehaut看好该公司，理由是其财务实力和超过25%的股本回报率。他的目标价为71美元。</blockquote> Century Communities<blockquote>世纪社区</blockquote> Since going public seven years ago, the Colorado home builder has expanded to 17 states and become the country’s ninth-largest builder.<blockquote>自七年前上市以来，这家科罗拉多州房屋建筑商已扩展到17个州，成为美国第九大建筑商。</blockquote> The bulk of Century’s sales go to entry-level buyers. Its Century Complete brand offers low-price homes with no options—the average selling price is just $207,000—around smaller cities like Jacksonville, Fla., and Louisville, Ky.<blockquote>Century的大部分销售额都流向了入门级买家。其Century Complete品牌在佛罗里达州杰克逊维尔和肯塔基州路易斯维尔等较小的城市提供没有选择的低价房屋——平均售价仅为20.7万美元。</blockquote> “Century is leveraging its buying power to enter smaller markets where it can build homes to be competitive with the local resale market,” says Wedbush’s McCanless.<blockquote>Wedbush的McCanless表示：“Century正在利用其购买力进入较小的市场，在那里它可以建造房屋，以与当地转售市场竞争。”</blockquote> Shares, at about $72, trade for five times projected 2022 earnings of about $15 a share. McCanless has an Outperform rating and a $110 price target on the stock.<blockquote>股价约为72美元，是2022年预计每股收益约15美元的五倍。McCanless对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为110美元。</blockquote> Meritage Homes<blockquote>Meritage Homes</blockquote> The high-growth Arizona-based builder is focused on the entry-level market in the Southeast and Southwest U.S., with an average selling price of about $400,000.<blockquote>这家总部位于亚利桑那州的高增长建筑商专注于美国东南部和西南部的入门级市场，平均售价约为40万美元。</blockquote> “We’re in the affordable part of the market,” Phillippe Lord, Meritage’s CEO, tells Barron’s. “Our part of the market will be more resilient” if interest rates rise, he says, adding that Meritage homes offer higher quality and better design than other entry-level rivals.<blockquote>Meritage首席执行官菲利普·洛德(Phillippe Lord)告诉《巴伦周刊》：“我们处于市场的平价部分。”他表示，如果利率上升，“我们的市场将更具弹性”，并补充说，Meritage homes比其他入门级竞争对手提供更高的质量和更好的设计。</blockquote> Meritage, whose shares trade for about $118, is expected to generate nearly 75% growth in earnings this year to $19 a share, and a 21% gain in 2022 to $23 a share. The stock trades for just five times projected 2022 earnings.<blockquote>Meritage的股价约为118美元，预计今年盈利将增长近75%，达到每股19美元，2022年将增长21%，达到每股23美元。该股的交易价格仅为2022年预计市盈率的五倍。</blockquote> After its third-quarter results, the company “executed extremely well,” despite materials shortages, Kim said. He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $190 a share.<blockquote>金说，在第三季度业绩公布后，尽管材料短缺，该公司“执行得非常好”。他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为每股190美元。</blockquote> U.S. home builders have never been in better shape. Even after a strong 2021, their stocks could be poised for many years of gains.<blockquote>美国房屋建筑商的状况从未如此之好。即使在2021年表现强劲之后，他们的股票也可能会连续多年上涨。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Housing Boom Could Last for a Decade. Buy These Stocks.<blockquote>房地产繁荣可能会持续十年。买这些股票。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Housing Boom Could Last for a Decade. Buy These Stocks.<blockquote>房地产繁荣可能会持续十年。买这些股票。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-12-06 10:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Housing is booming. Just take a look at Century Communities ’ development in Tumwater, Wash., where more than 140 homes, at prices as high as $500,000, have been sold this year. Tumwater is viewed as a suburb of Seattle—even at 60 miles away. It’s a scene that has been repeated over the past two years in markets all across the country.<blockquote>房地产正在蓬勃发展。看看Century Communities在华盛顿州Tumwater的开发项目就知道了。今年已有140多套住宅以高达50万美元的价格售出。Tumwater被视为西雅图的一个郊区——即使在60英里之外。这一幕在过去两年里在全国各地的市场上重演。</blockquote> Are we nearing a peak?<blockquote>我们正在接近顶峰吗？</blockquote> No, say the housing bulls on Wall Street, who argue that this is an upturn that could last for a decade. Millions of millennials are now at a point in their lives when they are seeking single-family homes in the suburbs and exurbs. They are entering a market still chastened by an unprecedented collapse in housing more than a decade ago.<blockquote>不，华尔街的房地产多头说，他们认为这是一个可能持续十年的好转。数百万千禧一代现在正处于人生的某个阶段，他们正在郊区和远郊寻找独栋住宅。他们进入的市场仍然受到十多年前前所未有的房地产崩溃的考验。</blockquote> “This market is primarily driven by a lack of supply, not excess demand,” says Stephen Kim, a housing analyst at Evercore ISI. “The supply shortage built up over 10 years, and it won’t go away quickly.”<blockquote>Evercore ISI住房分析师Stephen Kim表示：“这个市场主要是由供应不足而不是需求过剩推动的。”“供应短缺已经持续了10年，而且不会很快消失。”</blockquote> The numbers support Kim’s assertion. Inventories of existing homes remain near historically low levels. Construction starts on new single-family housing, meanwhile, will finally top one million this year after averaging fewer than 750,000 in the previous 10 years. That would still be below the 1.6 million annual starts from 2004 to 2006, the peak years of the housing bubble.<blockquote>这些数字支持了金的说法。现房库存仍接近历史低位。与此同时，新单户住宅的开工量在过去10年平均不到75万套之后，今年最终将突破100万套。这仍低于2004年至2006年（房地产泡沫的高峰期）每年160万套房屋的开工量。</blockquote> “The industry would need to sustain a two-million-starts pace for a decade to bring the industry out of its current underbuilt situation,” Kim argues.<blockquote>金认为：“该行业需要在十年内保持200万的开工速度，才能使该行业摆脱目前建设不足的局面。”</blockquote> The large home builders— D.R. Horton(ticker: DHI), Lennar(LEN), PulteGroup(PHM), and Toll Brothers(TOL)—are well positioned to benefit from the demographic trends. Their stocks trade for an average of just seven times projected 2022 earnings, among the lowest multiples in the stock market.<blockquote>大型房屋建筑商。Horton（股票代码：DHI）、Lennar（LEN）、PulteGroup（PHM）和Toll Brothers（TOL）——处于有利地位，可以从人口趋势中受益。他们的股票平均交易价格仅为2022年预计市盈率的七倍，是股市中最低的市盈率之一。</blockquote> Small-cap builders Century Communities(CCS) and Meritage Homes(MTH) are even cheaper, fetching about five times forward earnings. The S&amp;P 500 indextrades at more than 20 times estimated 2022 profits.<blockquote>小型建筑商Century Communities(CCS)和Meritage Homes(MTH)的价格甚至更便宜，预期市盈率约为五倍。标普500指数的交易价格是2022年预期利润的20多倍。</blockquote> “The industry is completely different than it used to be,” says Bill Smead, a manager of the Smead Value fund, which holds D.R. Horton and Lennar. “It’s going from being fragmented to being aggregated in a relatively small number of publicly traded hands, and there is a secular growth story due to demographics that mutes a lot of the normal cyclicality.”<blockquote>“这个行业与以前完全不同，”持有D.R.的Smead Value基金经理Bill Smead表示。霍顿和伦纳。“它正在从分散到聚集在相对较少的公开交易手中，而且由于人口统计数据抑制了很多正常的周期性，因此存在长期增长的故事。”</blockquote> Nineteen publicly traded builders now command more than 30% of the new-home market, against 21% a decade ago. The builders have strong balance sheets and less land inventory, and are poised to ramp up capital returns to investors in the coming years. Dividends, now averaging just 1% across the industry, should rise along with share repurchases.<blockquote>目前，19家上市建筑商占据了新房市场30%以上的份额，而十年前这一比例为21%。建筑商拥有强劲的资产负债表和较少的土地库存，并准备在未来几年提高投资者的资本回报。目前整个行业的股息平均仅为1%，应该会随着股票回购而上升。</blockquote> In the past, home builders plowed profits into land purchases to enable future construction. That kept a lid on valuations, as investors worried that land-heavy balance sheets would become liabilities in a downturn.<blockquote>过去，房屋建筑商将利润投入土地购买，以支持未来的建设。这限制了估值，因为投资者担心大量土地的资产负债表在经济低迷时期会变成负债。</blockquote> Home builders are now reaching deals with land developers that give them the option to purchase home-building lots rather than buying and holding land. At Horton, the percentage of owned lots has fallen to 24% from 43% since 2018.<blockquote>房屋建筑商现在正在与土地开发商达成协议，让他们可以选择购买房屋建筑用地，而不是购买和持有土地。在霍顿，自2018年以来，自有地块的比例已从43%降至24%。</blockquote> “It’s not like the top of the last cycle, when home builders owned a ton of lots purchased with borrowed money,” Smead says. The companies, he says, have gone from being “land developers” to “home manufacturers”—increasing returns and lowering risk. Pulte has scarcely any net debt, and Horton has little net debt at its core home-building business.<blockquote>“这不像上一个周期的顶部，当时房屋建筑商拥有大量用借来的钱购买的地块，”斯米德说。他说，这些公司已经从“土地开发商”变成了“房屋制造商”——增加了回报，降低了风险。普尔特几乎没有任何净债务，霍顿的核心住宅建筑业务也几乎没有净债务。</blockquote> J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Rehaut has estimated that the average net debt-to-capital ratio on home builders’ balance sheets will fall to a negative 4% by the end of 2023 from 15% today.<blockquote>摩根大通分析师Michael Rehaut估计，到2023年底，房屋建筑商资产负债表上的平均净债务与资本比率将从目前的15%降至负4%。</blockquote> He sees the companies as capable of buying back 20% of their shares in the next two years. The repurchases have already ramped up. Pulte bought back 4% of its stock in the first nine months of 2021, and D.R. Horton repurchased 2% in its just-completed fiscal year.<blockquote>他认为这些公司有能力在未来两年内回购20%的股份。回购已经加大。Pulte在2021年前9个月回购了4%的股票，D.R.霍顿在刚刚结束的财年回购了2%的股份。</blockquote> Barron’s has written favorably on home builders this year, including articles on Toll in January and Lennar in June.<blockquote>《巴伦周刊》今年对房屋建筑商发表了好评，包括1月份关于Toll和6月份关于Lennar的文章。</blockquote> Most public builders focus on entry-level and move-up buyers on the outskirts of major cities with average selling prices around $400,000. Toll, however, focuses on the high end and has an average selling price of close to $900,000.<blockquote>大多数公共建筑商专注于大城市郊区的入门级和升级型买家，平均售价在40万美元左右。然而，Toll专注于高端，平均售价接近90万美元。</blockquote> Smead sees annual earnings growth of 10% to 15% on average for the home builders over the next decade, although the gains could be lumpy.<blockquote>Smead预计，未来十年，房屋建筑商的平均年收入将增长10%至15%，尽管增长可能会不稳定。</blockquote> Evercore’s Kim says that 2022 Street earnings estimates are too low, arguing that current earnings reflect homes ordered several quarters ago, when prices were lower and the cost of lumber, a major input, much higher.<blockquote>Evercore的Kim表示，2022年街头盈利预期太低，他认为当前盈利反映了几个季度前订购的房屋，当时价格较低，而木材（一种主要投入）的成本要高得多。</blockquote> “The supply-chain disruptions have pushed some of the upside into next year,” he says.<blockquote>“供应链中断将一些上涨空间推到了明年，”他说。</blockquote> The stocks aren’t trading as cheaply based on price-to-book ratios, a popular valuation measure for home builders. The group now averages about 1.4 times projected 2022 year-end book value. Bulls argue that earnings are more durable than in the past and that the stocks should trade based on earnings and not book value.<blockquote>根据市净率（房屋建筑商流行的估值指标），这些股票的交易价格并不便宜。该集团目前平均约为预计2022年底账面价值的1.4倍。看多者认为，收益比过去更持久，股票应该根据收益而不是账面价值进行交易。</blockquote> Smead’s view is that the persistently low valuations reflect the searing investor memories of the 2004-07 housing bubble and subsequent crash, when stocks like Toll and D.R. Horton fell as much as 85%.<blockquote>Smead认为，持续的低估值反映了投资者对2004-07年房地产泡沫和随后崩盘的灼热记忆，当时Toll和D.R.等股票。霍顿跌幅高达85%。</blockquote> “If you compare this with the 2007-to-2009 period, you have two large demographic groups—millennials and baby boomers—looking for housing and not finding a lot of supply out there,” says Jay McCanless, the housing analyst at Wedbush Securities.<blockquote>韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)住房分析师杰伊·麦坎利斯(Jay McCanless)表示：“如果你将此与2007年至2009年期间进行比较，你会发现有两大人口群体——千禧一代和婴儿潮一代——正在寻找住房，但却没有找到大量供应。”。</blockquote> The work-from-home trend is another favorable trend, as Americans move out of apartments and into single-family homes, while homeowners seek larger houses with home offices and other amenities.<blockquote>在家工作的趋势是另一个有利的趋势，因为美国人搬出公寓，搬进独栋住宅，而房主则寻求带有家庭办公室和其他便利设施的更大房子。</blockquote> The bear case for housing is that slowing population growth will limit demand, according to Zelman &amp; Associates, the firm headed by the influential housing analyst Ivy Zelman.<blockquote>由颇具影响力的房地产分析师艾薇·泽尔曼(Ivy Zelman)领导的泽尔曼联合公司(Zelman&amp;Associates)表示，房地产市场的悲观理由是人口增长放缓将限制需求。</blockquote> The firm projects that the U.S. population will grow at just 4% in the current decade, down from 7.4% in 2010-20, which was the second-slowest percentage gain in history. “Population growth—the crucial underpinning of incremental housing demand—is on a troubling trajectory,” the firm wrote in a report this summer. “The current pace of production already surpasses demographically supported normalized demand.”<blockquote>该公司预计，美国人口在当前十年将仅增长4%，低于2010-20年的7.4%，这是历史上第二慢的百分比增长。该公司在今年夏天的一份报告中写道：“人口增长——住房需求增量的关键基础——正处于令人不安的轨道上。”“目前的生产速度已经超过了人口支持的正常化需求。”</blockquote> More near term, there is concern that the critical spring selling season next year may not be as robust as 2021’s, particularly if ultralow 30-year mortgage rates, now just over 3%, rise toward 4%. The rally in housing prices may have already stalled. The S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index showed a 19.5% annual gain in September, down from 19.8% in August.<blockquote>从近期来看，人们担心明年关键的春季销售季节可能不会像2021年那样强劲，特别是如果目前略高于3%的超低30年期抵押贷款利率升至4%。房价的涨势可能已经停滞。S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller美国全国房价NSA指数显示，9月份年增长率为19.5%，低于8月份的19.8%。</blockquote> Industry executives say they aren’t worried. “I think it’s pretty clear that the market is not as white hot right now as it was in the spring, but we’re still seeing very strong demand,” said Michael Murray, co-chief operating officer at D.R. Horton, on an earnings conference call in November.<blockquote>行业高管表示他们并不担心。D.R.联席首席运营官迈克尔·默里(Michael Murray)表示：“我认为很明显，现在的市场并不像春季那样白热化，但我们仍然看到非常强劲的需求。”霍顿在11月份的收益电话会议上。</blockquote> Dale and Robert Francescon, the co-CEOs of Century Communities, tell Barron’s, “With interest rates still at historic lows, demand has been consistently strong throughout our national footprint of more than 40 markets.”<blockquote>Century Communities联合首席执行官Dale和Robert Francescon告诉《巴伦周刊》，“由于利率仍处于历史低位，我们全国40多个市场的需求一直强劲。”</blockquote> And a bit of a cool-off may not be such a bad thing for the red-hot housing market, says Larry Pitkowsky, manager of the GoodHaven fund, which owns Lennar shares. “A more normalized pace of demand might be better, as Lennar and its brethren are striving to balance very strong demand with higher raw materials and tight labor markets, and a sensible desire to protect margins,” he says.<blockquote>持有Lennar股票的GoodHaven基金经理拉里·皮特科斯基(Larry Pitkowsky)表示，对于火热的房地产市场来说，一点降温可能并不是一件坏事。他表示：“更正常的需求速度可能会更好，因为Lennar及其兄弟公司正在努力平衡非常强劲的需求与更高的原材料和紧张的劳动力市场，以及保护利润率的合理愿望。”</blockquote> D.R. Horton<blockquote>D.R.霍顿</blockquote> The industry leader constructs roughly one in 10 new homes in the country—over 80,000 in its latest fiscal year. It has the industry’s largest market value at $37 billion and one of the highest returns on equity at 31%. Entry-level homes account for about half of its business.<blockquote>这家行业领导者在该国建造了大约十分之一的新房——在最近一个财年超过80,000套。它拥有业内最大的市值，为370亿美元，股本回报率最高的公司之一，为31%。入门级住宅约占其业务的一半。</blockquote> “Horton has done a superb job bringing down debt levels while at the same time growing the business and positioning itself for the future,” says Wedbush’s McCanless. Horton now controls over 500,000 lots—enough for more than five years of building at 2022’s expected pace.<blockquote>韦德布什的麦肯莱斯表示：“霍顿在降低债务水平方面做得非常出色，同时发展了业务并为未来做好了定位。”霍顿现在控制着超过50万块土地，足以按照2022年的预期速度进行五年多的建设。</blockquote> Its shares, at a recent $103, trade for about seven times the current earnings consensus of $14.22 a share for the company’s fiscal year ending in September. The shares yield 1%.<blockquote>其股价最近为103美元，约为该公司截至9月份的财年每股收益预期14.22美元的七倍。股票收益率为1%。</blockquote> Kim of Evercore ISI sees earnings of about $18 a share, arguing that Horton’s gross margins, now about 27%, can hit 30%. He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $163.<blockquote>Evercore ISI的Kim预计每股收益约为18美元，他认为Horton的毛利率目前约为27%，可以达到30%。他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为163美元。</blockquote> Lennar<blockquote>伦纳尔</blockquote> The No. 2 home builder in terms of market value has done the best job among its peers of developing related businesses. These include multifamily and single-family rental housing ventures and investments like a stake in Opendoor Technologies(OPEN), the online home buyer.<blockquote>这家市值排名第二的房屋建筑商在发展相关业务方面在同行中做得最好。其中包括多户和单户租赁住房企业以及在线购房者Opendoor Technologies(OPEN)的股份等投资。</blockquote> Lennar plans to spin off a group of noncore businesses, although it hasn’t yet provided details. Shares, at about $113, trade for 7.7 times projected 2022 earnings of almost $15 a share.<blockquote>Lennar计划剥离一组非核心业务，但尚未提供细节。股价约为113美元，是2022年预计每股收益近15美元的7.7倍。</blockquote> Chairman Stuart Miller says that “the best of times” for home builders still have a way to go. “Since new-home construction cannot ramp quickly enough to fill the void of the production deficit that persisted over the past decade, short supply is likely to remain for some time to come,” he said on the company’s latest earnings conference call.<blockquote>董事长斯图尔特·米勒表示，房屋建筑商的“最佳时期”还有很长的路要走。他在该公司最新的财报电话会议上表示：“由于新房建设无法以足够快的速度增长来填补过去十年持续存在的生产赤字，因此供应短缺可能会在未来一段时间内持续存在。”</blockquote> Investors can invest alongside Miller in the company’s supervoting B shares, which trade at $92, a big discount to the more-liquid Class A shares.<blockquote>投资者可以与米勒一起投资该公司具有超级投票权的B股，该股的交易价格为92美元，比流动性更强的A类股有很大折扣。</blockquote> GoodHaven’s Pitkowsky also favors the B shares, and they are probably the best way for retail investors to play Lennar, given the possibility that the share classes combine.<blockquote>GoodHaven的Pitkowsky也青睐B股，考虑到股票类别合并的可能性，它们可能是散户投资者玩Lennar的最佳方式。</blockquote> Toll Brothers<blockquote>托尔兄弟</blockquote> With its luxury focus, Toll is the most differentiated of the major home builders, and its competitive position is probably the strongest, since it competes primarily with smaller private builders.<blockquote>凭借其对奢侈品的关注，Toll是主要住宅建筑商中最具差异化的，其竞争地位可能是最强的，因为它主要与规模较小的私人建筑商竞争。</blockquote> Toll shares, at about $68, trade for 7.6 times projected earnings of $9 a share in the company’s fiscal year ending in October 2022.<blockquote>Toll股价约为68美元，是该公司截至2022年10月的财年预计每股收益9美元的7.6倍。</blockquote> “The higher end of the market has seen the biggest reversal of fortune—in a good way,” says Kim, noting weakness before the pandemic. Toll is benefiting from a larger prepandemic land position than peers. He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $86.<blockquote>金表示：“高端市场的命运发生了最大的逆转——以一种好的方式。”他指出了大流行之前的疲软。Toll受益于比同行更大的大流行前土地地位。他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为86美元。</blockquote> Higher-income white-collar workers—Toll’s core customer base—tend to have more work-from-home flexibility, and that is translating into strong demand, with the average buyer spending $160,000 on extras like home offices and multigenerational suites. And with longer construction periods than peers on its homes that can stretch a year or more, Toll’s earnings gains could play out deep into 2022.<blockquote>高收入白领——Toll的核心客户群——往往拥有更大的在家工作灵活性，这转化为强劲的需求，买家平均在家庭办公室和多代套房等额外设施上花费16万美元。由于其房屋建设周期比同行更长，可以持续一年或更长，Toll的盈利增长可能会持续到2022年。</blockquote> The company has developed what it calls “affordable luxury” homes in less expensive markets like South Carolina, with homes that sell on average for about $740,000 and make up about 40% of its business.<blockquote>该公司在南卡罗来纳州等较便宜的市场开发了其评级的“经济适用房”，这些房屋的平均售价约为74万美元，约占其业务的40%。</blockquote> PulteGroup<blockquote>普尔特集团</blockquote> The No. 3 U.S. home builder caters mainly to first-time and move-up buyers. Through its Del Webb and DiVosta brands, it builds “active adult” communities catering to those near, and in, retirement.<blockquote>这家美国第三大住宅建筑商主要为首次购房者和搬家购房者提供服务。通过其Del Webb和DiVosta品牌，它建立了“活跃的成人”社区，为即将退休和即将退休的人提供服务。</blockquote> Its shares, at about $52, are among the cheapest of its large-cap peers at under six times projected 2022 earnings.<blockquote>其股价约为52美元，是大盘股中最便宜的之一，不到2022年预计市盈率的六倍。</blockquote> As more of a build-to-order company than D.R. Horton and Lennar, Pulte’s earnings have more upside potential, since its current closings reflect older orders. And sales prices on new orders were up 26% year over year in the third quarter, pointing to higher 2022 earnings.<blockquote>与其说是D.R.，不如说是一家按订单生产的公司。Horton和Lennar，Pulte的盈利有更大的上涨潜力，因为其目前的成交反映了旧订单。第三季度新订单销售价格同比增长26%，表明2022年盈利将更高。</blockquote> The company has one of the best balance sheets among its peers, with minimal net debt. J.P. Morgan’s Rehaut is bullish on the company, citing its financial strength and a return on equity of more than 25%. He has a price target of $71.<blockquote>该公司拥有同行中最好的资产负债表之一，净债务最少。摩根大通的Rehaut看好该公司，理由是其财务实力和超过25%的股本回报率。他的目标价为71美元。</blockquote> Century Communities<blockquote>世纪社区</blockquote> Since going public seven years ago, the Colorado home builder has expanded to 17 states and become the country’s ninth-largest builder.<blockquote>自七年前上市以来，这家科罗拉多州房屋建筑商已扩展到17个州，成为美国第九大建筑商。</blockquote> The bulk of Century’s sales go to entry-level buyers. Its Century Complete brand offers low-price homes with no options—the average selling price is just $207,000—around smaller cities like Jacksonville, Fla., and Louisville, Ky.<blockquote>Century的大部分销售额都流向了入门级买家。其Century Complete品牌在佛罗里达州杰克逊维尔和肯塔基州路易斯维尔等较小的城市提供没有选择的低价房屋——平均售价仅为20.7万美元。</blockquote> “Century is leveraging its buying power to enter smaller markets where it can build homes to be competitive with the local resale market,” says Wedbush’s McCanless.<blockquote>Wedbush的McCanless表示：“Century正在利用其购买力进入较小的市场，在那里它可以建造房屋，以与当地转售市场竞争。”</blockquote> Shares, at about $72, trade for five times projected 2022 earnings of about $15 a share. McCanless has an Outperform rating and a $110 price target on the stock.<blockquote>股价约为72美元，是2022年预计每股收益约15美元的五倍。McCanless对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为110美元。</blockquote> Meritage Homes<blockquote>Meritage Homes</blockquote> The high-growth Arizona-based builder is focused on the entry-level market in the Southeast and Southwest U.S., with an average selling price of about $400,000.<blockquote>这家总部位于亚利桑那州的高增长建筑商专注于美国东南部和西南部的入门级市场，平均售价约为40万美元。</blockquote> “We’re in the affordable part of the market,” Phillippe Lord, Meritage’s CEO, tells Barron’s. “Our part of the market will be more resilient” if interest rates rise, he says, adding that Meritage homes offer higher quality and better design than other entry-level rivals.<blockquote>Meritage首席执行官菲利普·洛德(Phillippe Lord)告诉《巴伦周刊》：“我们处于市场的平价部分。”他表示，如果利率上升，“我们的市场将更具弹性”，并补充说，Meritage homes比其他入门级竞争对手提供更高的质量和更好的设计。</blockquote> Meritage, whose shares trade for about $118, is expected to generate nearly 75% growth in earnings this year to $19 a share, and a 21% gain in 2022 to $23 a share. The stock trades for just five times projected 2022 earnings.<blockquote>Meritage的股价约为118美元，预计今年盈利将增长近75%，达到每股19美元，2022年将增长21%，达到每股23美元。该股的交易价格仅为2022年预计市盈率的五倍。</blockquote> After its third-quarter results, the company “executed extremely well,” despite materials shortages, Kim said. He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $190 a share.<blockquote>金说，在第三季度业绩公布后，尽管材料短缺，该公司“执行得非常好”。他的评级为跑赢大盘，目标价为每股190美元。</blockquote> U.S. home builders have never been in better shape. Even after a strong 2021, their stocks could be poised for many years of gains.<blockquote>美国房屋建筑商的状况从未如此之好。即使在2021年表现强劲之后，他们的股票也可能会连续多年上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-real-estate-boom-stock-to-buy-51638549999?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CCS":"Century Communities","PHM":"普得集团","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司","DHI":"霍顿房屋","MTH":"Meritage Homes Corp","TOL":"托尔兄弟"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-real-estate-boom-stock-to-buy-51638549999?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155963993","content_text":"Housing is booming. Just take a look at Century Communities ’ development in Tumwater, Wash., where more than 140 homes, at prices as high as $500,000, have been sold this year. Tumwater is viewed as a suburb of Seattle—even at 60 miles away. It’s a scene that has been repeated over the past two years in markets all across the country.\n\nAre we nearing a peak?\n\n\nNo, say the housing bulls on Wall Street, who argue that this is an upturn that could last for a decade. Millions of millennials are now at a point in their lives when they are seeking single-family homes in the suburbs and exurbs. They are entering a market still chastened by an unprecedented collapse in housing more than a decade ago.\n\n“This market is primarily driven by a lack of supply, not excess demand,” says Stephen Kim, a housing analyst at Evercore ISI. “The supply shortage built up over 10 years, and it won’t go away quickly.”\n\n\nThe numbers support Kim’s assertion. Inventories of existing homes remain near historically low levels. Construction starts on new single-family housing, meanwhile, will finally top one million this year after averaging fewer than 750,000 in the previous 10 years. That would still be below the 1.6 million annual starts from 2004 to 2006, the peak years of the housing bubble.\n\n“The industry would need to sustain a two-million-starts pace for a decade to bring the industry out of its current underbuilt situation,” Kim argues.\n\nThe large home builders— D.R. Horton(ticker: DHI), Lennar(LEN), PulteGroup(PHM), and Toll Brothers(TOL)—are well positioned to benefit from the demographic trends. Their stocks trade for an average of just seven times projected 2022 earnings, among the lowest multiples in the stock market.\n\nSmall-cap builders Century Communities(CCS) and Meritage Homes(MTH) are even cheaper, fetching about five times forward earnings. The S&P 500 indextrades at more than 20 times estimated 2022 profits.\n\n\n“The industry is completely different than it used to be,” says Bill Smead, a manager of the Smead Value fund, which holds D.R. Horton and Lennar. “It’s going from being fragmented to being aggregated in a relatively small number of publicly traded hands, and there is a secular growth story due to demographics that mutes a lot of the normal cyclicality.”\n\n\nNineteen publicly traded builders now command more than 30% of the new-home market, against 21% a decade ago. The builders have strong balance sheets and less land inventory, and are poised to ramp up capital returns to investors in the coming years. Dividends, now averaging just 1% across the industry, should rise along with share repurchases.\n\nIn the past, home builders plowed profits into land purchases to enable future construction. That kept a lid on valuations, as investors worried that land-heavy balance sheets would become liabilities in a downturn.\n\nHome builders are now reaching deals with land developers that give them the option to purchase home-building lots rather than buying and holding land. At Horton, the percentage of owned lots has fallen to 24% from 43% since 2018.\n\n“It’s not like the top of the last cycle, when home builders owned a ton of lots purchased with borrowed money,” Smead says. The companies, he says, have gone from being “land developers” to “home manufacturers”—increasing returns and lowering risk. Pulte has scarcely any net debt, and Horton has little net debt at its core home-building business.\n\nJ.P. Morgan analyst Michael Rehaut has estimated that the average net debt-to-capital ratio on home builders’ balance sheets will fall to a negative 4% by the end of 2023 from 15% today.\n\nHe sees the companies as capable of buying back 20% of their shares in the next two years. The repurchases have already ramped up. Pulte bought back 4% of its stock in the first nine months of 2021, and D.R. Horton repurchased 2% in its just-completed fiscal year.\n\nBarron’s has written favorably on home builders this year, including articles on Toll in January and Lennar in June.\n\nMost public builders focus on entry-level and move-up buyers on the outskirts of major cities with average selling prices around $400,000. Toll, however, focuses on the high end and has an average selling price of close to $900,000.\n\nSmead sees annual earnings growth of 10% to 15% on average for the home builders over the next decade, although the gains could be lumpy.\n\nEvercore’s Kim says that 2022 Street earnings estimates are too low, arguing that current earnings reflect homes ordered several quarters ago, when prices were lower and the cost of lumber, a major input, much higher.\n\n“The supply-chain disruptions have pushed some of the upside into next year,” he says.\n\nThe stocks aren’t trading as cheaply based on price-to-book ratios, a popular valuation measure for home builders. The group now averages about 1.4 times projected 2022 year-end book value. Bulls argue that earnings are more durable than in the past and that the stocks should trade based on earnings and not book value.\n\nSmead’s view is that the persistently low valuations reflect the searing investor memories of the 2004-07 housing bubble and subsequent crash, when stocks like Toll and D.R. Horton fell as much as 85%.\n\n“If you compare this with the 2007-to-2009 period, you have two large demographic groups—millennials and baby boomers—looking for housing and not finding a lot of supply out there,” says Jay McCanless, the housing analyst at Wedbush Securities.\n\n\nThe work-from-home trend is another favorable trend, as Americans move out of apartments and into single-family homes, while homeowners seek larger houses with home offices and other amenities.\n\nThe bear case for housing is that slowing population growth will limit demand, according to Zelman & Associates, the firm headed by the influential housing analyst Ivy Zelman.\n\nThe firm projects that the U.S. population will grow at just 4% in the current decade, down from 7.4% in 2010-20, which was the second-slowest percentage gain in history. “Population growth—the crucial underpinning of incremental housing demand—is on a troubling trajectory,” the firm wrote in a report this summer. “The current pace of production already surpasses demographically supported normalized demand.”\n\nMore near term, there is concern that the critical spring selling season next year may not be as robust as 2021’s, particularly if ultralow 30-year mortgage rates, now just over 3%, rise toward 4%. The rally in housing prices may have already stalled. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index showed a 19.5% annual gain in September, down from 19.8% in August.\n\nIndustry executives say they aren’t worried. “I think it’s pretty clear that the market is not as white hot right now as it was in the spring, but we’re still seeing very strong demand,” said Michael Murray, co-chief operating officer at D.R. Horton, on an earnings conference call in November.\n\nDale and Robert Francescon, the co-CEOs of Century Communities, tell Barron’s, “With interest rates still at historic lows, demand has been consistently strong throughout our national footprint of more than 40 markets.”\n\nAnd a bit of a cool-off may not be such a bad thing for the red-hot housing market, says Larry Pitkowsky, manager of the GoodHaven fund, which owns Lennar shares. “A more normalized pace of demand might be better, as Lennar and its brethren are striving to balance very strong demand with higher raw materials and tight labor markets, and a sensible desire to protect margins,” he says.\n\nD.R. Horton\n\nThe industry leader constructs roughly one in 10 new homes in the country—over 80,000 in its latest fiscal year. It has the industry’s largest market value at $37 billion and one of the highest returns on equity at 31%. Entry-level homes account for about half of its business.\n\n“Horton has done a superb job bringing down debt levels while at the same time growing the business and positioning itself for the future,” says Wedbush’s McCanless. Horton now controls over 500,000 lots—enough for more than five years of building at 2022’s expected pace.\n\nIts shares, at a recent $103, trade for about seven times the current earnings consensus of $14.22 a share for the company’s fiscal year ending in September. The shares yield 1%.\n\nKim of Evercore ISI sees earnings of about $18 a share, arguing that Horton’s gross margins, now about 27%, can hit 30%. He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $163.\n\nLennar\n\nThe No. 2 home builder in terms of market value has done the best job among its peers of developing related businesses. These include multifamily and single-family rental housing ventures and investments like a stake in Opendoor Technologies(OPEN), the online home buyer.\n\nLennar plans to spin off a group of noncore businesses, although it hasn’t yet provided details. Shares, at about $113, trade for 7.7 times projected 2022 earnings of almost $15 a share.\n\nChairman Stuart Miller says that “the best of times” for home builders still have a way to go. “Since new-home construction cannot ramp quickly enough to fill the void of the production deficit that persisted over the past decade, short supply is likely to remain for some time to come,” he said on the company’s latest earnings conference call.\n\nInvestors can invest alongside Miller in the company’s supervoting B shares, which trade at $92, a big discount to the more-liquid Class A shares.\n\nGoodHaven’s Pitkowsky also favors the B shares, and they are probably the best way for retail investors to play Lennar, given the possibility that the share classes combine.\n\nToll Brothers\n\nWith its luxury focus, Toll is the most differentiated of the major home builders, and its competitive position is probably the strongest, since it competes primarily with smaller private builders.\n\nToll shares, at about $68, trade for 7.6 times projected earnings of $9 a share in the company’s fiscal year ending in October 2022.\n\n“The higher end of the market has seen the biggest reversal of fortune—in a good way,” says Kim, noting weakness before the pandemic. Toll is benefiting from a larger prepandemic land position than peers. He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $86.\n\nHigher-income white-collar workers—Toll’s core customer base—tend to have more work-from-home flexibility, and that is translating into strong demand, with the average buyer spending $160,000 on extras like home offices and multigenerational suites. And with longer construction periods than peers on its homes that can stretch a year or more, Toll’s earnings gains could play out deep into 2022.\n\nThe company has developed what it calls “affordable luxury” homes in less expensive markets like South Carolina, with homes that sell on average for about $740,000 and make up about 40% of its business.\n\nPulteGroup\n\nThe No. 3 U.S. home builder caters mainly to first-time and move-up buyers. Through its Del Webb and DiVosta brands, it builds “active adult” communities catering to those near, and in, retirement.\n\nIts shares, at about $52, are among the cheapest of its large-cap peers at under six times projected 2022 earnings.\n\nAs more of a build-to-order company than D.R. Horton and Lennar, Pulte’s earnings have more upside potential, since its current closings reflect older orders. And sales prices on new orders were up 26% year over year in the third quarter, pointing to higher 2022 earnings.\n\nThe company has one of the best balance sheets among its peers, with minimal net debt. J.P. Morgan’s Rehaut is bullish on the company, citing its financial strength and a return on equity of more than 25%. He has a price target of $71.\n\n\n\nCentury Communities\n\nSince going public seven years ago, the Colorado home builder has expanded to 17 states and become the country’s ninth-largest builder.\n\nThe bulk of Century’s sales go to entry-level buyers. Its Century Complete brand offers low-price homes with no options—the average selling price is just $207,000—around smaller cities like Jacksonville, Fla., and Louisville, Ky.\n\n“Century is leveraging its buying power to enter smaller markets where it can build homes to be competitive with the local resale market,” says Wedbush’s McCanless.\n\nShares, at about $72, trade for five times projected 2022 earnings of about $15 a share. McCanless has an Outperform rating and a $110 price target on the stock.\n\n\nMeritage Homes\n\nThe high-growth Arizona-based builder is focused on the entry-level market in the Southeast and Southwest U.S., with an average selling price of about $400,000.\n\n“We’re in the affordable part of the market,” Phillippe Lord, Meritage’s CEO, tells Barron’s. “Our part of the market will be more resilient” if interest rates rise, he says, adding that Meritage homes offer higher quality and better design than other entry-level rivals.\n\nMeritage, whose shares trade for about $118, is expected to generate nearly 75% growth in earnings this year to $19 a share, and a 21% gain in 2022 to $23 a share. The stock trades for just five times projected 2022 earnings.\n\nAfter its third-quarter results, the company “executed extremely well,” despite materials shortages, Kim said. He has an Outperform rating and a price target of $190 a share.\n\nU.S. home builders have never been in better shape. 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