Nice_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-11-30

Nice

Wall Street Dip Buyers Defy Omicron Inflation Risk at Their Own Peril<blockquote>华尔街下跌买家无视奥密克戎通胀风险，后果自负</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":609392913,"tweetId":"609392913","gmtCreate":1638236931520,"gmtModify":1638237337163,"author":{"id":3582719067968878,"idStr":"3582719067968878","authorId":3582719067968878,"authorIdStr":"3582719067968878","name":"Nyannie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49d49ced16baf68b59df813f08820a8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":24,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609392913","repostId":1105270576,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105270576","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638236121,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105270576?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Dip Buyers Defy Omicron Inflation Risk at Their Own Peril<blockquote>华尔街下跌买家无视奥密克戎通胀风险，后果自负</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105270576","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- If there’s any lesson for Wall Street in the pandemic era, it’s this: Every selloff h","content":"(Bloomberg) -- If there’s any lesson for Wall Street in the pandemic era, it’s this: Every selloff has proved a big opportunity to buy the dip in a world of activist central banks and limitless risk appetite.<blockquote>（彭博社）——如果说大流行时代的华尔街有什么教训的话，那就是：事实证明，在央行激进、风险偏好无限的世界里，每次抛售都是逢低买入的绝佳机会。</blockquote> Yet the Monday rally as the omicron variant spreads will test the resolve of investors who thought they’d seen it all in the Covid roller coaster.<blockquote>然而，随着奥密克戎变种的蔓延，周一的反弹将考验投资者的决心，他们认为自己已经在新冠疫情的过山车中看到了这一切。</blockquote> With fresh travel bans looming and transmission fears rife, the S&amp;P 500 rallied more than 1% at the open after the index’s worst drop in nine months Friday. Treasuries slumped, sending yields higher, while oil jumped.<blockquote>随着新的旅行禁令迫在眉睫，对传播的担忧盛行，标普500在周五出现九个月来最严重跌幅后，开盘上涨超过1%。美国国债下跌，导致收益率走高，而油价则上涨。</blockquote> To the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Wealth Management, it all makes sense -- they reckon bad virus news has some good news for markets as the variant assuages fears of monetary tightening. But strategists at Capital Economics and Mizuho International are among those urging caution as rising cases may worsen inflation, keeping policy makers on track to cut stimulus.<blockquote>对于高盛集团和瑞银财富管理公司等公司来说，这一切都是有道理的——他们认为坏病毒消息对市场来说是一些好消息，因为该变种缓解了对货币紧缩的担忧。但凯投宏观(Capital Economics)和瑞穗国际(Mizuho International)的策略师也敦促谨慎行事，因为病例增加可能会加剧通胀，从而使政策制定者有望削减刺激措施。</blockquote> “I know, I know, ‘U.S. equities only go up’ etc,” wrote Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho. “Monetary tightening is a structural downside risk to equities, and it may coincide with weaker growth in Q1.”<blockquote>瑞穗多资产策略主管彼得·查特韦尔写道：“我知道，我知道，‘美国股市只会上涨’等等。”“货币紧缩是股市的结构性下行风险，可能与第一季度增长疲软同时发生。”</blockquote> While mild omicron symptoms and news of rapid vaccine reformulations are offering some relief Monday, European policy makers were already tightening rules to fight another wave of infections even before the mutation was discovered in southern Africa late last week.<blockquote>虽然轻微的奥密克戎症状和快速重新配制疫苗的消息周一提供了一些缓解，但甚至在上周晚些时候在南部非洲发现这种突变之前，欧洲政策制定者就已经在收紧规则，以抗击另一波感染。</blockquote> The sharp risk-off session Friday, exacerbated by thin liquidity after the Thanksgiving holiday, was a sign of investors’ sensitivity to any bad headlines, with their pockets already thickly lined from the S&amp;P 500’s 24% gain this year.<blockquote>感恩节假期后流动性稀薄加剧了周五的大幅避险交易，这表明投资者对任何负面头条新闻都很敏感，他们的口袋已经因标普500今年24%的涨幅而中饱私囊。</blockquote> While corporations have managed to deliver a sharp profit recovery in 2021, stock valuations are elevated historically: The U.S. benchmark is trading at 21 times the next year’s earnings, compared with 18 at the end of 2019 and a decade average of close to 17.<blockquote>尽管企业在2021年实现了利润大幅复苏，但股票估值处于历史高位：美国基准的市盈率为次年市盈率的21倍，而2019年底为18倍，十年平均水平接近17倍。</blockquote> Whether that multiple counts as stretched will largely depend on the monetary trajectory. And since omicron hit the headlines, money-market traders have pushed back expectations for global rate hikes, market-derived inflation expectations have fallen and oil has plunged.<blockquote>这一倍数是否被视为捉襟见肘，很大程度上取决于货币走势。自奥密克戎成为头条新闻以来，货币市场交易员推迟了对全球加息的预期，市场衍生的通胀预期下降，油价暴跌。</blockquote> All that is a sign markets are pricing in a drop in demand from the new variant, which may prompt central banks to slow their tightening.<blockquote>所有这些都表明市场正在消化新变种的需求下降，这可能会促使央行放慢紧缩速度。</blockquote> “Ironically, it may be the omicron scare itself that now creates the best possibility of some relief over the period, either because incoming news about the variant is better than feared or because monetary policy makers take a somewhat more cautious stance in response to the news,” wrote Dominic Wilson at Goldman.<blockquote>“具有讽刺意味的是，现在可能是奥密克戎恐慌本身在这一时期创造了一些缓解的最佳可能性，要么是因为有关该变种的消息比人们担心的要好，要么是因为货币政策制定者在应对这一消息时采取了更加谨慎的立场，”高盛的Dominic Wilson写道。</blockquote> At UBS’s wealth-management unit, a team led by chief investment officer Mark Haefele is telling clients to stay invested with the base case of robust economic growth intact and any concerns only likely to reduce monetary-tightening fears. At Nordea Investment Funds, senior macro strategist Sebastien Galy calls it a buying opportunity.<blockquote>在瑞银财富管理部门，由首席投资官马克·海菲尔(Mark Haefele)领导的团队告诉客户，在经济强劲增长的基本情况下保持投资，任何担忧只会减少对货币紧缩的担忧。北欧联合投资基金(Nordea Investment Funds)高级宏观策略师塞巴斯蒂安·加利(Sebastien Galy)认为这是一个买入机会。</blockquote> After a spike in volatility like the VIX’s 10-point jump Friday, stocks usually stage “robust reversals,” writes Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, in a Monday note.<blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)在周一的一份报告中写道，在周五VIX上涨10点等波动性飙升后，股市通常会出现“强劲逆转”。</blockquote> Yet the policy response function may be less clear-cut than it was in the first all-hands-on-deck phase of the pandemic. Last year’s experience underscored the risk that if consumers shift their spending toward goods amid supply-chain bottlenecks, renewed virus anxieties can actually be inflationary.<blockquote>然而，政策应对职能可能不如疫情第一个全员参与阶段那么明确。去年的经验凸显了这样一种风险：如果消费者在供应链瓶颈的情况下将支出转向商品，那么重新出现的病毒焦虑实际上可能会引发通货膨胀。</blockquote> New infections may also temporarily shrink the labor force, suggests Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席经济学家尼尔·希林(Neil Shearing)表示，新感染病例也可能暂时减少劳动力。</blockquote> “Compared to previous waves of the virus, which were on balance disinflationary, a major new wave could now be inflationary,” he wrote in a note. “All of this further complicates an already-complex policy challenge.”<blockquote>他在一份报告中写道：“与前几波病毒总体上是反通胀的相比，新一波病毒现在可能是通胀的。”“所有这些都使本已复杂的政策挑战进一步复杂化。”</blockquote> It’s a big shift from a week ago, when investors were largely preoccupied with the rate outlook based on the pace of the U.S. recovery. An index for economic surprises only this month returned to positive territory, as payrolls and retail sales expanded faster than expected.<blockquote>与一周前相比，这是一个重大转变，当时投资者主要关注基于美国复苏步伐的利率前景。由于就业和零售销售扩张快于预期，本月经济意外指数才恢复正值。</blockquote> But for investors giddy after the 66 record highs notched by the S&amp;P 500 this year, an intensifying Covid risk is hard to ignore.<blockquote>但对于今年标普500创下66个历史新高后感到头晕目眩的投资者来说，不断加剧的新冠风险很难忽视。</blockquote> “I am not too positive on the situation as the cause of the selloff was the new variant, but it is also worth considering that the number of infections levels in Europe were unfortunately increasing anyway,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “We will need more data before we will be able to judge.”<blockquote>Kairos投资组合经理阿尔贝托·托奇奥(Alberto Tocchio)表示：“我对这种情况不太乐观，因为抛售的原因是新变种，但同样值得考虑的是，欧洲的感染水平无论如何都在不幸增加。”合伙人。“我们需要更多的数据才能做出判断。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Dip Buyers Defy Omicron Inflation Risk at Their Own Peril<blockquote>华尔街下跌买家无视奥密克戎通胀风险，后果自负</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Dip Buyers Defy Omicron Inflation Risk at Their Own Peril<blockquote>华尔街下跌买家无视奥密克戎通胀风险，后果自负</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-30 09:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- If there’s any lesson for Wall Street in the pandemic era, it’s this: Every selloff has proved a big opportunity to buy the dip in a world of activist central banks and limitless risk appetite.<blockquote>（彭博社）——如果说大流行时代的华尔街有什么教训的话，那就是：事实证明，在央行激进、风险偏好无限的世界里，每次抛售都是逢低买入的绝佳机会。</blockquote> Yet the Monday rally as the omicron variant spreads will test the resolve of investors who thought they’d seen it all in the Covid roller coaster.<blockquote>然而，随着奥密克戎变种的蔓延，周一的反弹将考验投资者的决心，他们认为自己已经在新冠疫情的过山车中看到了这一切。</blockquote> With fresh travel bans looming and transmission fears rife, the S&amp;P 500 rallied more than 1% at the open after the index’s worst drop in nine months Friday. Treasuries slumped, sending yields higher, while oil jumped.<blockquote>随着新的旅行禁令迫在眉睫，对传播的担忧盛行，标普500在周五出现九个月来最严重跌幅后，开盘上涨超过1%。美国国债下跌，导致收益率走高，而油价则上涨。</blockquote> To the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Wealth Management, it all makes sense -- they reckon bad virus news has some good news for markets as the variant assuages fears of monetary tightening. But strategists at Capital Economics and Mizuho International are among those urging caution as rising cases may worsen inflation, keeping policy makers on track to cut stimulus.<blockquote>对于高盛集团和瑞银财富管理公司等公司来说，这一切都是有道理的——他们认为坏病毒消息对市场来说是一些好消息，因为该变种缓解了对货币紧缩的担忧。但凯投宏观(Capital Economics)和瑞穗国际(Mizuho International)的策略师也敦促谨慎行事，因为病例增加可能会加剧通胀，从而使政策制定者有望削减刺激措施。</blockquote> “I know, I know, ‘U.S. equities only go up’ etc,” wrote Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho. “Monetary tightening is a structural downside risk to equities, and it may coincide with weaker growth in Q1.”<blockquote>瑞穗多资产策略主管彼得·查特韦尔写道：“我知道，我知道，‘美国股市只会上涨’等等。”“货币紧缩是股市的结构性下行风险，可能与第一季度增长疲软同时发生。”</blockquote> While mild omicron symptoms and news of rapid vaccine reformulations are offering some relief Monday, European policy makers were already tightening rules to fight another wave of infections even before the mutation was discovered in southern Africa late last week.<blockquote>虽然轻微的奥密克戎症状和快速重新配制疫苗的消息周一提供了一些缓解，但甚至在上周晚些时候在南部非洲发现这种突变之前，欧洲政策制定者就已经在收紧规则，以抗击另一波感染。</blockquote> The sharp risk-off session Friday, exacerbated by thin liquidity after the Thanksgiving holiday, was a sign of investors’ sensitivity to any bad headlines, with their pockets already thickly lined from the S&amp;P 500’s 24% gain this year.<blockquote>感恩节假期后流动性稀薄加剧了周五的大幅避险交易，这表明投资者对任何负面头条新闻都很敏感，他们的口袋已经因标普500今年24%的涨幅而中饱私囊。</blockquote> While corporations have managed to deliver a sharp profit recovery in 2021, stock valuations are elevated historically: The U.S. benchmark is trading at 21 times the next year’s earnings, compared with 18 at the end of 2019 and a decade average of close to 17.<blockquote>尽管企业在2021年实现了利润大幅复苏，但股票估值处于历史高位：美国基准的市盈率为次年市盈率的21倍，而2019年底为18倍，十年平均水平接近17倍。</blockquote> Whether that multiple counts as stretched will largely depend on the monetary trajectory. And since omicron hit the headlines, money-market traders have pushed back expectations for global rate hikes, market-derived inflation expectations have fallen and oil has plunged.<blockquote>这一倍数是否被视为捉襟见肘，很大程度上取决于货币走势。自奥密克戎成为头条新闻以来，货币市场交易员推迟了对全球加息的预期，市场衍生的通胀预期下降，油价暴跌。</blockquote> All that is a sign markets are pricing in a drop in demand from the new variant, which may prompt central banks to slow their tightening.<blockquote>所有这些都表明市场正在消化新变种的需求下降，这可能会促使央行放慢紧缩速度。</blockquote> “Ironically, it may be the omicron scare itself that now creates the best possibility of some relief over the period, either because incoming news about the variant is better than feared or because monetary policy makers take a somewhat more cautious stance in response to the news,” wrote Dominic Wilson at Goldman.<blockquote>“具有讽刺意味的是，现在可能是奥密克戎恐慌本身在这一时期创造了一些缓解的最佳可能性，要么是因为有关该变种的消息比人们担心的要好，要么是因为货币政策制定者在应对这一消息时采取了更加谨慎的立场，”高盛的Dominic Wilson写道。</blockquote> At UBS’s wealth-management unit, a team led by chief investment officer Mark Haefele is telling clients to stay invested with the base case of robust economic growth intact and any concerns only likely to reduce monetary-tightening fears. At Nordea Investment Funds, senior macro strategist Sebastien Galy calls it a buying opportunity.<blockquote>在瑞银财富管理部门，由首席投资官马克·海菲尔(Mark Haefele)领导的团队告诉客户，在经济强劲增长的基本情况下保持投资，任何担忧只会减少对货币紧缩的担忧。北欧联合投资基金(Nordea Investment Funds)高级宏观策略师塞巴斯蒂安·加利(Sebastien Galy)认为这是一个买入机会。</blockquote> After a spike in volatility like the VIX’s 10-point jump Friday, stocks usually stage “robust reversals,” writes Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, in a Monday note.<blockquote>瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)在周一的一份报告中写道，在周五VIX上涨10点等波动性飙升后，股市通常会出现“强劲逆转”。</blockquote> Yet the policy response function may be less clear-cut than it was in the first all-hands-on-deck phase of the pandemic. Last year’s experience underscored the risk that if consumers shift their spending toward goods amid supply-chain bottlenecks, renewed virus anxieties can actually be inflationary.<blockquote>然而，政策应对职能可能不如疫情第一个全员参与阶段那么明确。去年的经验凸显了这样一种风险：如果消费者在供应链瓶颈的情况下将支出转向商品，那么重新出现的病毒焦虑实际上可能会引发通货膨胀。</blockquote> New infections may also temporarily shrink the labor force, suggests Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席经济学家尼尔·希林(Neil Shearing)表示，新感染病例也可能暂时减少劳动力。</blockquote> “Compared to previous waves of the virus, which were on balance disinflationary, a major new wave could now be inflationary,” he wrote in a note. “All of this further complicates an already-complex policy challenge.”<blockquote>他在一份报告中写道：“与前几波病毒总体上是反通胀的相比，新一波病毒现在可能是通胀的。”“所有这些都使本已复杂的政策挑战进一步复杂化。”</blockquote> It’s a big shift from a week ago, when investors were largely preoccupied with the rate outlook based on the pace of the U.S. recovery. An index for economic surprises only this month returned to positive territory, as payrolls and retail sales expanded faster than expected.<blockquote>与一周前相比，这是一个重大转变，当时投资者主要关注基于美国复苏步伐的利率前景。由于就业和零售销售扩张快于预期，本月经济意外指数才恢复正值。</blockquote> But for investors giddy after the 66 record highs notched by the S&amp;P 500 this year, an intensifying Covid risk is hard to ignore.<blockquote>但对于今年标普500创下66个历史新高后感到头晕目眩的投资者来说，不断加剧的新冠风险很难忽视。</blockquote> “I am not too positive on the situation as the cause of the selloff was the new variant, but it is also worth considering that the number of infections levels in Europe were unfortunately increasing anyway,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “We will need more data before we will be able to judge.”<blockquote>Kairos投资组合经理阿尔贝托·托奇奥(Alberto Tocchio)表示：“我对这种情况不太乐观，因为抛售的原因是新变种，但同样值得考虑的是，欧洲的感染水平无论如何都在不幸增加。”合伙人。“我们需要更多的数据才能做出判断。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-dip-buyers-defy-135337950.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-dip-buyers-defy-135337950.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105270576","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- If there’s any lesson for Wall Street in the pandemic era, it’s this: Every selloff has proved a big opportunity to buy the dip in a world of activist central banks and limitless risk appetite.\nYet the Monday rally as the omicron variant spreads will test the resolve of investors who thought they’d seen it all in the Covid roller coaster.\nWith fresh travel bans looming and transmission fears rife, the S&P 500 rallied more than 1% at the open after the index’s worst drop in nine months Friday. Treasuries slumped, sending yields higher, while oil jumped.\nTo the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Wealth Management, it all makes sense -- they reckon bad virus news has some good news for markets as the variant assuages fears of monetary tightening. But strategists at Capital Economics and Mizuho International are among those urging caution as rising cases may worsen inflation, keeping policy makers on track to cut stimulus.\n“I know, I know, ‘U.S. equities only go up’ etc,” wrote Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho. “Monetary tightening is a structural downside risk to equities, and it may coincide with weaker growth in Q1.”\nWhile mild omicron symptoms and news of rapid vaccine reformulations are offering some relief Monday, European policy makers were already tightening rules to fight another wave of infections even before the mutation was discovered in southern Africa late last week.\nThe sharp risk-off session Friday, exacerbated by thin liquidity after the Thanksgiving holiday, was a sign of investors’ sensitivity to any bad headlines, with their pockets already thickly lined from the S&P 500’s 24% gain this year.\nWhile corporations have managed to deliver a sharp profit recovery in 2021, stock valuations are elevated historically: The U.S. benchmark is trading at 21 times the next year’s earnings, compared with 18 at the end of 2019 and a decade average of close to 17.\nWhether that multiple counts as stretched will largely depend on the monetary trajectory. And since omicron hit the headlines, money-market traders have pushed back expectations for global rate hikes, market-derived inflation expectations have fallen and oil has plunged.\nAll that is a sign markets are pricing in a drop in demand from the new variant, which may prompt central banks to slow their tightening.\n“Ironically, it may be the omicron scare itself that now creates the best possibility of some relief over the period, either because incoming news about the variant is better than feared or because monetary policy makers take a somewhat more cautious stance in response to the news,” wrote Dominic Wilson at Goldman.\nAt UBS’s wealth-management unit, a team led by chief investment officer Mark Haefele is telling clients to stay invested with the base case of robust economic growth intact and any concerns only likely to reduce monetary-tightening fears. At Nordea Investment Funds, senior macro strategist Sebastien Galy calls it a buying opportunity.\nAfter a spike in volatility like the VIX’s 10-point jump Friday, stocks usually stage “robust reversals,” writes Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, in a Monday note.\nYet the policy response function may be less clear-cut than it was in the first all-hands-on-deck phase of the pandemic. Last year’s experience underscored the risk that if consumers shift their spending toward goods amid supply-chain bottlenecks, renewed virus anxieties can actually be inflationary.\nNew infections may also temporarily shrink the labor force, suggests Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.\n“Compared to previous waves of the virus, which were on balance disinflationary, a major new wave could now be inflationary,” he wrote in a note. “All of this further complicates an already-complex policy challenge.”\nIt’s a big shift from a week ago, when investors were largely preoccupied with the rate outlook based on the pace of the U.S. recovery. An index for economic surprises only this month returned to positive territory, as payrolls and retail sales expanded faster than expected.\nBut for investors giddy after the 66 record highs notched by the S&P 500 this year, an intensifying Covid risk is hard to ignore.\n“I am not too positive on the situation as the cause of the selloff was the new variant, but it is also worth considering that the number of infections levels in Europe were unfortunately increasing anyway,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “We will need more data before we will be able to judge.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2136,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/609392913"}