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2022-01-24
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Apple Stock: How It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>苹果股票：到2025年如何达到5万亿美元</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":630540480,"tweetId":"630540480","gmtCreate":1642998622750,"gmtModify":1642998622882,"author":{"id":4088149740978250,"idStr":"4088149740978250","authorId":4088149740978250,"authorIdStr":"4088149740978250","name":"Afrinbanu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df4dd897beb5ddf10fd20887f3626c","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[财迷] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[财迷] </span></p></body></html>","text":"[财迷]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630540480","repostId":1157407942,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157407942","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642993691,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157407942?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-24 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>苹果股票：到2025年如何达到5万亿美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157407942","media":"TheStreet","summary":"AAPL has failed to stay above the $3 trillion valuation mark, but it could reach well past it in a f","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>AAPL has failed to stay above the $3 trillion valuation mark, but it could reach well past it in a few years. In fact, I think that Apple stock might be worth $5 trillion by 2025.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>AAPL的估值未能保持在3万亿美元以上，但几年内可能会远远超过这一水平。事实上，我认为到2025年，苹果股票的价值可能达到5万亿美元。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Apple stock has failed to stay above the $3 trillion market cap by any longer than a day or two. But this is not to say that share value can not climb substantially above these levels in the next four years.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价未能保持在3万亿美元市值以上超过一两天。但这并不是说股价在未来四年内不会大幅攀升至这些水平之上。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, I believe that Apple could be worth $ 5 trillion by then. Here is how I see the journey unfolding through the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，我相信到那时苹果的价值可能达到5万亿美元。以下是我对2025年底这段旅程的看法。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Stock: It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果股票：到2025年可能达到5万亿美元</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: $5 trillion around the corner</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：5万亿美元即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p>The number “5 trillion” may sound a bit too large to our limited human brains that are not used to dealing with such figures. Also, considering that Apple stock is worth around $2.8 trillion today, the near doubling of the market cap seems a bit aggressive over such a short period of time.</p><p><blockquote>“5万亿”这个数字对于我们有限的不习惯处理这样的数字的人脑来说可能听起来有点太大了。此外，考虑到苹果股票目前的价值约为2.8万亿美元，在如此短的时间内市值几乎翻倍似乎有点激进。</blockquote></p><p>But for AAPL to get to $5 trillion in value, its market cap would need to “only” rise by about 15% compounded annually through the end of 2025 (the math: $2.8 trillion times 1.15 to the power of 4 years), or about 75% cumulative. Does this rate of growth sound unrealistic?</p><p><blockquote>但要使AAPL的价值达到5万亿美元，到2025年底，其市值“只需”每年复合增长约15%（数学计算：2.8万亿美元乘以1.15的4次方），即约75%累计。这个增长率听起来是不是不现实？</blockquote></p><p><b>Glass half empty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>玻璃杯半空</b></blockquote></p><p>The more pessimistic investor might say “no way!” Apple stock has already climbed 550% over the past five years alone, with annual peaks of 89% in 2019 and 82% in 2020 (see below). It did so, in part, due to lower interest rates and the tailwinds of the pandemic-era, stay-at-home consumer trends. Both will have been left in the rearview mirror by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>更悲观的投资者可能会说“没门！”仅在过去五年中，苹果股价就已上涨550%，2019年和2020年分别达到89%和82%的年度峰值（见下文）。这在一定程度上是由于较低的利率和大流行时代居家消费趋势的推动。到2022年底，两者都将被抛在后视镜中。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6d76e0bfe5c508a69aacb9c74814ba\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"649\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 2: Apple's porfolio growth and annual returns.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果的投资组合增长和年回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Glass half full</b></p><p><blockquote><b>玻璃杯半满</b></blockquote></p><p>But the more optimistic investor may see a different path forward. From a historical perspective, Apple stock has produced annual returns that are substantially better than the S&P 500’s over a long period: 33% vs. the broad market’s 11% since the start of the iPhone era.</p><p><blockquote>但更乐观的投资者可能会看到不同的前进道路。从历史角度来看，苹果股票的年回报率长期远好于标普500：自iPhone时代开始以来，年回报率为33%，而大盘回报率为11%。</blockquote></p><p>Because I am looking four years into the future through the end of 2025, it helps to analyze AAPL’s rolling four-year performance. Since 2007, when the iPhone was introduced, AAPL’s market cap climbed an average of 315% over any given four-year stretch (median 135%). This would be more than enough to send Apple stock well past $5 trillion by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>因为我展望了到2025年底的未来四年，所以分析AAPL的滚动四年业绩很有帮助。自2007年iPhone推出以来，AAPL的市值在任何给定的四年内平均上涨了315%（中位数为135%）。到2025年，这足以使苹果股价远超5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d025e76441a7722d110a5972c182abd4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 3: AAPL's Rolling 4-year market cap growth (est.).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL连续4年市值增长（预计）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>What could make it happen</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么能让它发生</b></blockquote></p><p>Of course, past results are not a guarantee of future performance. Apple’s market cap managed to grow aggressively over the last several years because it had plenty of room to do so. Today, Apple is already the most valuable company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>当然，过去的成绩并不能保证未来的表现。苹果的市值在过去几年中大幅增长，因为它有足够的空间。如今，苹果已经是全球市值最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p>So, for $5 trillion to happen, the Cupertino company would need growth catalysts. Luckily for its shareholders, Apple has plenty of potential candidates.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要实现5万亿美元的目标，库比蒂诺公司需要增长催化剂。对股东来说幸运的是，苹果有很多潜在的候选人。</blockquote></p><p>The first is increased adoption of existing technology: smartphones, tablets, wearables and associated services, like streaming subscriptions and in-app purchases. While the US and Europe are more mature markets in which Apple is already a dominant force, developing markets offer much better growth prospects — see below.</p><p><blockquote>首先是现有技术的采用增加：智能手机、平板电脑、可穿戴设备和相关服务，如流媒体订阅和应用内购买。虽然美国和欧洲是更成熟的市场，苹果已经是其中的主导力量，但发展中市场提供了更好的增长前景——见下文。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45801a6a31a965eb3e194b237097ef12\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"518\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 4: Smartphones market - growth rate by region (2021-2026).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：智能手机市场-各地区增长率（2021-2026）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The other growth route is through new technologies. This is the most likely path to $5 trillion by 2025, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>另一条增长途径是通过新技术。在我看来，这是到2025年最有可能达到5万亿美元的途径。</blockquote></p><p>Mixed reality devices will probably be a key building block of the metaverse.Morgan Stanley’s research team thinks that the yet-to-be-released Apple Glass will be the game changer that ultimately sparks the new internet 3.0 revolution.</p><p><blockquote>混合现实设备可能会成为虚拟宇宙的关键组成部分。摩根士丹利的研究团队认为，尚未发布的苹果眼镜将成为游戏规则改变者，最终引发新的互联网3.0革命。</blockquote></p><p>Then, a bit later, the Cupertino giant is likely to launch the Apple Car — its official entry into the autonomous and electric vehicle space. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has chimed in on the opportunity, and he even quantified it during our conversation last year:</p><p><blockquote>然后，过一会儿，这家库比蒂诺巨头可能会推出苹果汽车——正式进入自动驾驶和电动汽车领域。Wedbush的Dan Ives也谈到了这个机会，他甚至在我们去年的谈话中量化了它：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>“When I look at the Apple Car, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. I believe they are continuing to build a vision, the infrastructure, they are looking for partnerships on the battery side. […] They are not going to miss out on the $5 trillion green tidal wave.”The combination of historical precedence in share price movements and growth opportunities in “old” and new technologies lead me to believe that Apple stock could, in fact, be worth $5 trillion in just a few years.</p><p><blockquote>“当我看苹果汽车时，这不是是否的问题，而是何时的问题。我相信他们正在继续建立愿景、基础设施，他们正在寻找电池方面的合作伙伴关系。[……]他们不会错过5万亿美元的绿色浪潮。”股价走势的历史优势以及“旧”和新技术的增长机会让我相信，苹果股票实际上可能在短短几年内价值5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>苹果股票：到2025年如何达到5万亿美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025<blockquote>苹果股票：到2025年如何达到5万亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-24 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>AAPL has failed to stay above the $3 trillion valuation mark, but it could reach well past it in a few years. In fact, I think that Apple stock might be worth $5 trillion by 2025.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>AAPL的估值未能保持在3万亿美元以上，但几年内可能会远远超过这一水平。事实上，我认为到2025年，苹果股票的价值可能达到5万亿美元。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Apple stock has failed to stay above the $3 trillion market cap by any longer than a day or two. But this is not to say that share value can not climb substantially above these levels in the next four years.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价未能保持在3万亿美元市值以上超过一两天。但这并不是说股价在未来四年内不会大幅攀升至这些水平之上。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, I believe that Apple could be worth $ 5 trillion by then. Here is how I see the journey unfolding through the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，我相信到那时苹果的价值可能达到5万亿美元。以下是我对2025年底这段旅程的看法。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Stock: It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果股票：到2025年可能达到5万亿美元</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: $5 trillion around the corner</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：5万亿美元即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p>The number “5 trillion” may sound a bit too large to our limited human brains that are not used to dealing with such figures. Also, considering that Apple stock is worth around $2.8 trillion today, the near doubling of the market cap seems a bit aggressive over such a short period of time.</p><p><blockquote>“5万亿”这个数字对于我们有限的不习惯处理这样的数字的人脑来说可能听起来有点太大了。此外，考虑到苹果股票目前的价值约为2.8万亿美元，在如此短的时间内市值几乎翻倍似乎有点激进。</blockquote></p><p>But for AAPL to get to $5 trillion in value, its market cap would need to “only” rise by about 15% compounded annually through the end of 2025 (the math: $2.8 trillion times 1.15 to the power of 4 years), or about 75% cumulative. Does this rate of growth sound unrealistic?</p><p><blockquote>但要使AAPL的价值达到5万亿美元，到2025年底，其市值“只需”每年复合增长约15%（数学计算：2.8万亿美元乘以1.15的4次方），即约75%累计。这个增长率听起来是不是不现实？</blockquote></p><p><b>Glass half empty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>玻璃杯半空</b></blockquote></p><p>The more pessimistic investor might say “no way!” Apple stock has already climbed 550% over the past five years alone, with annual peaks of 89% in 2019 and 82% in 2020 (see below). It did so, in part, due to lower interest rates and the tailwinds of the pandemic-era, stay-at-home consumer trends. Both will have been left in the rearview mirror by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>更悲观的投资者可能会说“没门！”仅在过去五年中，苹果股价就已上涨550%，2019年和2020年分别达到89%和82%的年度峰值（见下文）。这在一定程度上是由于较低的利率和大流行时代居家消费趋势的推动。到2022年底，两者都将被抛在后视镜中。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6d76e0bfe5c508a69aacb9c74814ba\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"649\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 2: Apple's porfolio growth and annual returns.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果的投资组合增长和年回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Glass half full</b></p><p><blockquote><b>玻璃杯半满</b></blockquote></p><p>But the more optimistic investor may see a different path forward. From a historical perspective, Apple stock has produced annual returns that are substantially better than the S&P 500’s over a long period: 33% vs. the broad market’s 11% since the start of the iPhone era.</p><p><blockquote>但更乐观的投资者可能会看到不同的前进道路。从历史角度来看，苹果股票的年回报率长期远好于标普500：自iPhone时代开始以来，年回报率为33%，而大盘回报率为11%。</blockquote></p><p>Because I am looking four years into the future through the end of 2025, it helps to analyze AAPL’s rolling four-year performance. Since 2007, when the iPhone was introduced, AAPL’s market cap climbed an average of 315% over any given four-year stretch (median 135%). This would be more than enough to send Apple stock well past $5 trillion by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>因为我展望了到2025年底的未来四年，所以分析AAPL的滚动四年业绩很有帮助。自2007年iPhone推出以来，AAPL的市值在任何给定的四年内平均上涨了315%（中位数为135%）。到2025年，这足以使苹果股价远超5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d025e76441a7722d110a5972c182abd4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 3: AAPL's Rolling 4-year market cap growth (est.).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL连续4年市值增长（预计）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>What could make it happen</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么能让它发生</b></blockquote></p><p>Of course, past results are not a guarantee of future performance. Apple’s market cap managed to grow aggressively over the last several years because it had plenty of room to do so. Today, Apple is already the most valuable company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>当然，过去的成绩并不能保证未来的表现。苹果的市值在过去几年中大幅增长，因为它有足够的空间。如今，苹果已经是全球市值最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p>So, for $5 trillion to happen, the Cupertino company would need growth catalysts. Luckily for its shareholders, Apple has plenty of potential candidates.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要实现5万亿美元的目标，库比蒂诺公司需要增长催化剂。对股东来说幸运的是，苹果有很多潜在的候选人。</blockquote></p><p>The first is increased adoption of existing technology: smartphones, tablets, wearables and associated services, like streaming subscriptions and in-app purchases. While the US and Europe are more mature markets in which Apple is already a dominant force, developing markets offer much better growth prospects — see below.</p><p><blockquote>首先是现有技术的采用增加：智能手机、平板电脑、可穿戴设备和相关服务，如流媒体订阅和应用内购买。虽然美国和欧洲是更成熟的市场，苹果已经是其中的主导力量，但发展中市场提供了更好的增长前景——见下文。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45801a6a31a965eb3e194b237097ef12\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"518\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Figure 4: Smartphones market - growth rate by region (2021-2026).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：智能手机市场-各地区增长率（2021-2026）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The other growth route is through new technologies. This is the most likely path to $5 trillion by 2025, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>另一条增长途径是通过新技术。在我看来，这是到2025年最有可能达到5万亿美元的途径。</blockquote></p><p>Mixed reality devices will probably be a key building block of the metaverse.Morgan Stanley’s research team thinks that the yet-to-be-released Apple Glass will be the game changer that ultimately sparks the new internet 3.0 revolution.</p><p><blockquote>混合现实设备可能会成为虚拟宇宙的关键组成部分。摩根士丹利的研究团队认为，尚未发布的苹果眼镜将成为游戏规则改变者，最终引发新的互联网3.0革命。</blockquote></p><p>Then, a bit later, the Cupertino giant is likely to launch the Apple Car — its official entry into the autonomous and electric vehicle space. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has chimed in on the opportunity, and he even quantified it during our conversation last year:</p><p><blockquote>然后，过一会儿，这家库比蒂诺巨头可能会推出苹果汽车——正式进入自动驾驶和电动汽车领域。Wedbush的Dan Ives也谈到了这个机会，他甚至在我们去年的谈话中量化了它：</blockquote></p><p></p><p>“When I look at the Apple Car, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. I believe they are continuing to build a vision, the infrastructure, they are looking for partnerships on the battery side. […] They are not going to miss out on the $5 trillion green tidal wave.”The combination of historical precedence in share price movements and growth opportunities in “old” and new technologies lead me to believe that Apple stock could, in fact, be worth $5 trillion in just a few years.</p><p><blockquote>“当我看苹果汽车时，这不是是否的问题，而是何时的问题。我相信他们正在继续建立愿景、基础设施，他们正在寻找电池方面的合作伙伴关系。[……]他们不会错过5万亿美元的绿色浪潮。”股价走势的历史优势以及“旧”和新技术的增长机会让我相信，苹果股票实际上可能在短短几年内价值5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-it-could-reach-5-trillion-by-2025\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-it-could-reach-5-trillion-by-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157407942","content_text":"AAPL has failed to stay above the $3 trillion valuation mark, but it could reach well past it in a few years. In fact, I think that Apple stock might be worth $5 trillion by 2025.Apple stock has failed to stay above the $3 trillion market cap by any longer than a day or two. But this is not to say that share value can not climb substantially above these levels in the next four years.In fact, I believe that Apple could be worth $ 5 trillion by then. Here is how I see the journey unfolding through the end of 2025.Figure 1: Apple Stock: It Could Reach $5 Trillion By 2025AAPL: $5 trillion around the cornerThe number “5 trillion” may sound a bit too large to our limited human brains that are not used to dealing with such figures. Also, considering that Apple stock is worth around $2.8 trillion today, the near doubling of the market cap seems a bit aggressive over such a short period of time.But for AAPL to get to $5 trillion in value, its market cap would need to “only” rise by about 15% compounded annually through the end of 2025 (the math: $2.8 trillion times 1.15 to the power of 4 years), or about 75% cumulative. Does this rate of growth sound unrealistic?Glass half emptyThe more pessimistic investor might say “no way!” Apple stock has already climbed 550% over the past five years alone, with annual peaks of 89% in 2019 and 82% in 2020 (see below). It did so, in part, due to lower interest rates and the tailwinds of the pandemic-era, stay-at-home consumer trends. Both will have been left in the rearview mirror by the end of 2022.Figure 2: Apple's porfolio growth and annual returns.Glass half fullBut the more optimistic investor may see a different path forward. From a historical perspective, Apple stock has produced annual returns that are substantially better than the S&P 500’s over a long period: 33% vs. the broad market’s 11% since the start of the iPhone era.Because I am looking four years into the future through the end of 2025, it helps to analyze AAPL’s rolling four-year performance. Since 2007, when the iPhone was introduced, AAPL’s market cap climbed an average of 315% over any given four-year stretch (median 135%). This would be more than enough to send Apple stock well past $5 trillion by 2025.Figure 3: AAPL's Rolling 4-year market cap growth (est.).What could make it happenOf course, past results are not a guarantee of future performance. Apple’s market cap managed to grow aggressively over the last several years because it had plenty of room to do so. Today, Apple is already the most valuable company in the world.So, for $5 trillion to happen, the Cupertino company would need growth catalysts. Luckily for its shareholders, Apple has plenty of potential candidates.The first is increased adoption of existing technology: smartphones, tablets, wearables and associated services, like streaming subscriptions and in-app purchases. While the US and Europe are more mature markets in which Apple is already a dominant force, developing markets offer much better growth prospects — see below.Figure 4: Smartphones market - growth rate by region (2021-2026).The other growth route is through new technologies. This is the most likely path to $5 trillion by 2025, in my view.Mixed reality devices will probably be a key building block of the metaverse.Morgan Stanley’s research team thinks that the yet-to-be-released Apple Glass will be the game changer that ultimately sparks the new internet 3.0 revolution.Then, a bit later, the Cupertino giant is likely to launch the Apple Car — its official entry into the autonomous and electric vehicle space. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has chimed in on the opportunity, and he even quantified it during our conversation last year:“When I look at the Apple Car, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. I believe they are continuing to build a vision, the infrastructure, they are looking for partnerships on the battery side. […] They are not going to miss out on the $5 trillion green tidal wave.”The combination of historical precedence in share price movements and growth opportunities in “old” and new technologies lead me to believe that Apple stock could, in fact, be worth $5 trillion in just a few years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2557,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/630540480"}
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