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2022-08-09

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Nvidia: Execution Issues Surfacing Again With Its Downcast Q2 Guidance<blockquote>英伟达：第二季度指引下调，执行问题再次浮出水面</blockquote>

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Management has overstated its forecasting models tremendously.</li><li>We are disappointed that Nvidia didn&#39;t learn sufficiently from the previous downturn in 2018 with its overstated guidance. As a result, management has lost some credibility with us.</li><li>Broadcom warned in September 2021 that the current cycle was unsustainable. But, we have not observed such early warning in Nvidia&#39;s commentary. Therefore, execution is very poor.</li><li>We reiterate our Hold rating, as we believe NVDA could continue underperforming the market.</li></ul>Thesis<blockquote><ul><li>英伟达发布的第二季度prelim版本远低于之前的指导，尤其是在游戏领域，震惊了市场。管理层大大夸大了其预测模型。</li><li>我们感到失望的是，英伟达没有从2018年的经济低迷中充分吸取教训，其夸大了指导。结果，管理层在我们这里失去了一些信誉。</li><li>博通在2021年9月警告称，当前的周期是不可持续的。但是，我们在英伟达的评论中没有观察到这样的预警。因此，执行力很差。</li><li>我们重申持有评级，因为我们认为NVDA的表现可能会继续逊于市场。</li></ul>论文</blockquote>NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stunned the market as it announced its Q2 preliminary results that came in well below its guidance and the Street&#39;s consensus. We highlighted in our previous article that NVIDIA could continue to underperform the market, even though we assessed that it was near its bottom.<blockquote>英伟达公司（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）公布的第二季度初步业绩远低于其指引和华尔街共识，震惊了市场。我们在上一篇文章中强调，英伟达的表现可能会继续逊于市场，尽管我们评估其已接近底部。</blockquote>While we expected NVDA to stage a short-term rally from its June lows, we didn&#39;t envisage NVDA to continue outperforming the market. Notably, NVDA has underperformed the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the Technology ETF (XLK) over the past two months (even before yesterday&#39;s sell-off).<blockquote>虽然我们预计NVDA将从6月低点出现短期反弹，但我们并不认为NVDA会继续跑赢市场。值得注意的是，NVDA在过去两个月（甚至在昨天的抛售之前）的表现逊于景顺QQQ ETF(QQQ)和科技ETF(XLK)。</blockquote>We maintain our conviction that the market has materially de-rated NVDA, despite its battering from its November 2021 highs. Management has failed to convince us when chips are down that Nvidia could overcome the market&#39;s cyclical nature with its so-called &#34;secular&#34; opportunities.<blockquote>我们仍然相信，尽管NVDA的评级从2021年11月的高点遭受重创，但市场已大幅下调。当关键时刻到来时，管理层未能让我们相信英伟达可以通过其所谓的“长期”机会克服市场的周期性。</blockquote>Coupled with potentially slowing revenue growth and its steep growth premium, we urge investors to find other well-beaten down opportunities in growth and tech stocks to add exposure. Notwithstanding, we expect semis to have bottomed out and do not expect much further downside in NVDA. As a result, we urge investors not to sell in panic.<blockquote>再加上收入增长可能放缓及其陡峭的增长溢价，我们敦促投资者在成长股和科技股中寻找其他遭受重创的机会来增加投资。尽管如此，我们预计半成品已经触底，并且预计NVDA不会进一步下跌。因此，我们敦促投资者不要恐慌性抛售。</blockquote>Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA for now.<blockquote>因此，我们暂时重申对NVDA的持有评级。</blockquote>Nvidia Lost Credibility With Its Caution<blockquote>英伟达因其谨慎而失去了信誉</blockquote>We are shareholders of NVDA, which account for a reasonable weighting in our portfolio. Therefore, we consider the warning on its Q2 prelim release a massive disappointment but not unexpected.<blockquote>我们是NVDA的股东，NVDA在我们的投资组合中占有合理的权重。因此，我们认为其第二季度初步发布的警告令人非常失望，但并不意外。</blockquote>We vividly remember Broadcom (AVGO)CEO Hock Tan cautioned about the current semi downturn in September 2021, demonstrating his prescience and credibility. We also highlighted his comments in our article last year, as he accentuated:<blockquote>我们清楚地记得博通(AVGO)首席执行官Hock Tan在2021年9月对当前的经济低迷发出警告，证明了他的先见之明和可信度。我们还在去年的文章中强调了他的评论，他强调：</blockquote>And to answer your question point-blank, I do not see any specific drivers or reasons why the strength we see today is really nothing more than of an exaggerated up-cycle. We always go through a period of digestion. There&#39;s no way we can consume on all that forever. And that&#39;s what is called a cycle, particularly when we expect supply to come into play out of this - out of the current tightness, but dated back to 2020 to start coming in 2023. And the massive investment and CapEx will start deploying capacity in &#39;23 earliest. Then I see &#39;23 where we have supply. And I think digestion of demand might just start to occur. (Broadcom article)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ac20e2b8ed62af8f2aeaa78f94ad5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote>直截了当地回答你的问题，我没有看到任何具体的驱动因素或原因，为什么我们今天看到的实力实际上只不过是一个夸大的上升周期。我们总是要经历一段消化期。我们不可能永远消耗这些。这就是所谓的周期，特别是当我们预计供应将从中发挥作用时——摆脱当前的紧张，但可以追溯到2020年，并将于2023年开始。巨额投资和资本支出最早将于23年开始部署产能。然后我看到23年我们有供应。我认为需求的消化可能才刚刚开始。（博通文章）</blockquote>Nvidia gaming and data center revenue change %(Company filings)<blockquote>Nvidia游戏和数据中心收入变化%（公司备案）</blockquote>Nvidia warned in its preliminary release for FQ2&#39;23that it expects to post revenue of $6.7B, up by just 3% YoY, down significantly from its previous outlook of $8.1B (up 24.4%).<blockquote>Nvidia在23年第二季度的初步发布中警告称，预计收入为$6.7 B，同比仅增长3%，远低于之前预期的$8.1 B（增长24.4%）。</blockquote>The main culprit is gaming, as Nvidia highlighted that it expects gaming to post a decline of 33.4%, as seen above, even though data center growth remains robust. However, Nvidia&#39;s gaming growth has already trended down consistently from its peak growth in FQ1&#39;22, as gaming started to lap challenging comps, complicated by the post-pandemic reopening.<blockquote>罪魁祸首是游戏，正如Nvidia强调的那样，尽管数据中心增长依然强劲，但预计游戏将下降33.4%，如上所示。然而，英伟达的游戏增长已经从22年第一季度的峰值增长开始持续下降，因为游戏开始应对充满挑战的竞争，而大流行后的重新开放使情况变得更加复杂。</blockquote>Furthermore, the destruction in crypto mining added to the headwinds in gaming cards ASPs, creating further challenges for Nvidia as it prepares to launch its RTX 40-series Ada Lovelace graphics.<blockquote>此外，加密货币挖矿的破坏增加了游戏卡ASP的阻力，为Nvidia准备推出RTX 40系列Ada Lovelace显卡带来了进一步的挑战。</blockquote>But, Nvidia has consistently maintained its &#34;strong&#34; belief in its gaming segment, often accentuating its strength and consistency. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted in a June conference that he expects gaming to continue posting robust growth cadence. He articulated:<blockquote>但是，英伟达始终保持其对游戏领域的“坚定”信念，经常强调其实力和一致性。首席执行官黄仁勋(Elon Musk)在6月份的一次会议上强调，他预计游戏行业将继续保持强劲的增长节奏。他明确表示：</blockquote>China is a significant market. Russia is a meaningful market for our gaming business. However, gaming remains solid even in the face of China and Russia. Q1 sell-through grew year-over-year over last year, which was a really fantastic year. And so gaming sell-through remains solid. (BofA 2022 Global Technology Conference)But, consider what Huang emphasized two months later in Nvidia&#39;s prelim release. He said:<blockquote>中国是一个重要的市场。俄罗斯是我们博彩业务的重要市场。然而，即使面对中国和俄罗斯，博彩仍保持稳健。第一季度的销售额比去年同比增长，这真是美妙的一年。因此游戏销量依然强劲。（美国银行2022年全球技术大会）但是，考虑一下黄在两个月后英伟达的初步发布中强调的内容。他说：</blockquote>Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took action with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory. - NvidiaTherefore, we believe Huang &amp; team has lost some credibility with us. Moreover, it shows that the company overstated its forecasting models, resulting in weak execution. Given Nvidia&#39;s experience navigating the previous crypto downturn in 2018, we are highly disappointed with how management has managed its guidance heading into its Q2 prelim release.<blockquote>随着本季度的进展，我们的游戏产品销量预测大幅下降。由于我们预期影响销售的宏观经济状况将持续，我们与博彩合作夥伴采取行动调整渠道价格及库存。–NVIDIA因此，我们认为黄和团队已经失去了我们的一些信誉。此外，这表明该公司夸大了其预测模型，导致执行力薄弱。鉴于Nvidia在2018年应对加密货币低迷的经验，我们对管理层在第二季度初步发布前管理指导的方式感到非常失望。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf57b7e1fc91128408275fb9e5712e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Nvidia pro viz and automotive revenue change %(Company filings)<blockquote>Nvidia pro viz和汽车收入变化百分比（公司文件）</blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s pro visualization segment&#39;s growth has also slowed down markedly, reflecting the weakness in its gaming segment. Therefore, the euphoria over the Omniverse opportunity has yet to gain significant traction. As a result, we urge investors to pay attention to its data center growth cadence moving forward, as it&#39;s critical to underpin NVDA&#39;s expensive valuation.<blockquote>英伟达专业可视化部门的增长也明显放缓，反映出其游戏部门的疲软。因此，对Omniverse机会的兴奋尚未获得显着的吸引力。因此，我们敦促投资者关注其数据中心未来的增长节奏，因为这对于支撑NVDA昂贵的估值至关重要。</blockquote>Automotive is the bright spot after tepid growth over the past four quarters. However, QUALCOMM (QCOM) remains confident that it&#39;s the leading player with its digital chassis, given the size of its design pipeline and growth momentum. Therefore, we urge Nvidia investors to pay close attention to Qualcomm&#39;s performance and not simply buy into Nvidia&#39;s commentary on its auto momentum.<blockquote>汽车行业在过去四个季度增长不温不火后成为亮点。然而，鉴于其设计渠道的规模和增长势头，高通(QCOM)仍然相信其数字机箱的领先企业。因此，我们敦促英伟达投资者密切关注高通的业绩，不要简单地相信英伟达对其汽车势头的评论。</blockquote>Qualcomm highlighted in a May conference that its digital chassis competes with Mobileye (INTC) directly, suggesting two of them are leading the pack, without mentioning Nvidia. Management also accentuated in its recent Q3 earnings that it has garnered more than $19B in its auto design pipeline, and delivered auto revenue of $350M, up 38% YoY. Furthermore, the company emphasized that its open platform helps spur adoption by auto OEMs. Therefore, Nvidia investors need to assess the competition from Qualcomm carefully.<blockquote>高通在5月份的一次会议上强调，其数字机箱直接与Mobileye(INTC)竞争，表明其中两家处于领先地位，但没有提及Nvidia。管理层还在最近的第三季度收益中强调，其汽车设计渠道已获得超过19B美元的收入，汽车收入为3.5亿美元，同比增长38%。此外，该公司强调其开放平台有助于刺激汽车原始设备制造商的采用。因此，英伟达投资者需要仔细评估来自高通的竞争。</blockquote>Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>NVDA股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>We are confident that NVDA has likely staged its medium-term bottom in June, in line with its semi peers.<blockquote>我们相信NVDA可能会在6月份出现中期底部，与其semi同行一致。</blockquote>But, growth and tech investors are spoilt for choice, given the tech bear market. Being at a bottom doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that investors should jump on the opportunity to add NVDA, as we believe it could still underperform the market.<blockquote>但是，考虑到科技熊市，成长型和科技投资者的选择太多了。处于底部并不一定意味着投资者应该抓住机会添加NVDA，因为我们认为它的表现仍可能逊于市场。</blockquote>Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA and urge investors to look elsewhere.<blockquote>因此，我们重申对NVDA的持有评级并敦促投资者将目光投向别处。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Execution Issues Surfacing Again With Its Downcast Q2 Guidance<blockquote>英伟达：第二季度指引下调，执行问题再次浮出水面</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Execution Issues Surfacing Again With Its Downcast Q2 Guidance<blockquote>英伟达：第二季度指引下调，执行问题再次浮出水面</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-08-09 23:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Nvidia shocked the market as it posted its Q2 prelim release that came in well below its previous guidance, particularly in gaming. Management has overstated its forecasting models tremendously.</li><li>We are disappointed that Nvidia didn&#39;t learn sufficiently from the previous downturn in 2018 with its overstated guidance. As a result, management has lost some credibility with us.</li><li>Broadcom warned in September 2021 that the current cycle was unsustainable. But, we have not observed such early warning in Nvidia&#39;s commentary. Therefore, execution is very poor.</li><li>We reiterate our Hold rating, as we believe NVDA could continue underperforming the market.</li></ul>Thesis<blockquote><ul><li>英伟达发布的第二季度prelim版本远低于之前的指导，尤其是在游戏领域，震惊了市场。管理层大大夸大了其预测模型。</li><li>我们感到失望的是，英伟达没有从2018年的经济低迷中充分吸取教训，其夸大了指导。结果，管理层在我们这里失去了一些信誉。</li><li>博通在2021年9月警告称，当前的周期是不可持续的。但是，我们在英伟达的评论中没有观察到这样的预警。因此，执行力很差。</li><li>我们重申持有评级，因为我们认为NVDA的表现可能会继续逊于市场。</li></ul>论文</blockquote>NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stunned the market as it announced its Q2 preliminary results that came in well below its guidance and the Street&#39;s consensus. We highlighted in our previous article that NVIDIA could continue to underperform the market, even though we assessed that it was near its bottom.<blockquote>英伟达公司（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）公布的第二季度初步业绩远低于其指引和华尔街共识，震惊了市场。我们在上一篇文章中强调，英伟达的表现可能会继续逊于市场，尽管我们评估其已接近底部。</blockquote>While we expected NVDA to stage a short-term rally from its June lows, we didn&#39;t envisage NVDA to continue outperforming the market. Notably, NVDA has underperformed the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the Technology ETF (XLK) over the past two months (even before yesterday&#39;s sell-off).<blockquote>虽然我们预计NVDA将从6月低点出现短期反弹，但我们并不认为NVDA会继续跑赢市场。值得注意的是，NVDA在过去两个月（甚至在昨天的抛售之前）的表现逊于景顺QQQ ETF(QQQ)和科技ETF(XLK)。</blockquote>We maintain our conviction that the market has materially de-rated NVDA, despite its battering from its November 2021 highs. Management has failed to convince us when chips are down that Nvidia could overcome the market&#39;s cyclical nature with its so-called &#34;secular&#34; opportunities.<blockquote>我们仍然相信，尽管NVDA的评级从2021年11月的高点遭受重创，但市场已大幅下调。当关键时刻到来时，管理层未能让我们相信英伟达可以通过其所谓的“长期”机会克服市场的周期性。</blockquote>Coupled with potentially slowing revenue growth and its steep growth premium, we urge investors to find other well-beaten down opportunities in growth and tech stocks to add exposure. Notwithstanding, we expect semis to have bottomed out and do not expect much further downside in NVDA. As a result, we urge investors not to sell in panic.<blockquote>再加上收入增长可能放缓及其陡峭的增长溢价，我们敦促投资者在成长股和科技股中寻找其他遭受重创的机会来增加投资。尽管如此，我们预计半成品已经触底，并且预计NVDA不会进一步下跌。因此，我们敦促投资者不要恐慌性抛售。</blockquote>Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA for now.<blockquote>因此，我们暂时重申对NVDA的持有评级。</blockquote>Nvidia Lost Credibility With Its Caution<blockquote>英伟达因其谨慎而失去了信誉</blockquote>We are shareholders of NVDA, which account for a reasonable weighting in our portfolio. Therefore, we consider the warning on its Q2 prelim release a massive disappointment but not unexpected.<blockquote>我们是NVDA的股东，NVDA在我们的投资组合中占有合理的权重。因此，我们认为其第二季度初步发布的警告令人非常失望，但并不意外。</blockquote>We vividly remember Broadcom (AVGO)CEO Hock Tan cautioned about the current semi downturn in September 2021, demonstrating his prescience and credibility. We also highlighted his comments in our article last year, as he accentuated:<blockquote>我们清楚地记得博通(AVGO)首席执行官Hock Tan在2021年9月对当前的经济低迷发出警告，证明了他的先见之明和可信度。我们还在去年的文章中强调了他的评论，他强调：</blockquote>And to answer your question point-blank, I do not see any specific drivers or reasons why the strength we see today is really nothing more than of an exaggerated up-cycle. We always go through a period of digestion. There&#39;s no way we can consume on all that forever. And that&#39;s what is called a cycle, particularly when we expect supply to come into play out of this - out of the current tightness, but dated back to 2020 to start coming in 2023. And the massive investment and CapEx will start deploying capacity in &#39;23 earliest. Then I see &#39;23 where we have supply. And I think digestion of demand might just start to occur. (Broadcom article)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ac20e2b8ed62af8f2aeaa78f94ad5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote>直截了当地回答你的问题，我没有看到任何具体的驱动因素或原因，为什么我们今天看到的实力实际上只不过是一个夸大的上升周期。我们总是要经历一段消化期。我们不可能永远消耗这些。这就是所谓的周期，特别是当我们预计供应将从中发挥作用时——摆脱当前的紧张，但可以追溯到2020年，并将于2023年开始。巨额投资和资本支出最早将于23年开始部署产能。然后我看到23年我们有供应。我认为需求的消化可能才刚刚开始。（博通文章）</blockquote>Nvidia gaming and data center revenue change %(Company filings)<blockquote>Nvidia游戏和数据中心收入变化%（公司备案）</blockquote>Nvidia warned in its preliminary release for FQ2&#39;23that it expects to post revenue of $6.7B, up by just 3% YoY, down significantly from its previous outlook of $8.1B (up 24.4%).<blockquote>Nvidia在23年第二季度的初步发布中警告称，预计收入为$6.7 B，同比仅增长3%，远低于之前预期的$8.1 B（增长24.4%）。</blockquote>The main culprit is gaming, as Nvidia highlighted that it expects gaming to post a decline of 33.4%, as seen above, even though data center growth remains robust. However, Nvidia&#39;s gaming growth has already trended down consistently from its peak growth in FQ1&#39;22, as gaming started to lap challenging comps, complicated by the post-pandemic reopening.<blockquote>罪魁祸首是游戏，正如Nvidia强调的那样，尽管数据中心增长依然强劲，但预计游戏将下降33.4%，如上所示。然而，英伟达的游戏增长已经从22年第一季度的峰值增长开始持续下降，因为游戏开始应对充满挑战的竞争，而大流行后的重新开放使情况变得更加复杂。</blockquote>Furthermore, the destruction in crypto mining added to the headwinds in gaming cards ASPs, creating further challenges for Nvidia as it prepares to launch its RTX 40-series Ada Lovelace graphics.<blockquote>此外，加密货币挖矿的破坏增加了游戏卡ASP的阻力，为Nvidia准备推出RTX 40系列Ada Lovelace显卡带来了进一步的挑战。</blockquote>But, Nvidia has consistently maintained its &#34;strong&#34; belief in its gaming segment, often accentuating its strength and consistency. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted in a June conference that he expects gaming to continue posting robust growth cadence. He articulated:<blockquote>但是，英伟达始终保持其对游戏领域的“坚定”信念，经常强调其实力和一致性。首席执行官黄仁勋(Elon Musk)在6月份的一次会议上强调，他预计游戏行业将继续保持强劲的增长节奏。他明确表示：</blockquote>China is a significant market. Russia is a meaningful market for our gaming business. However, gaming remains solid even in the face of China and Russia. Q1 sell-through grew year-over-year over last year, which was a really fantastic year. And so gaming sell-through remains solid. (BofA 2022 Global Technology Conference)But, consider what Huang emphasized two months later in Nvidia&#39;s prelim release. He said:<blockquote>中国是一个重要的市场。俄罗斯是我们博彩业务的重要市场。然而，即使面对中国和俄罗斯，博彩仍保持稳健。第一季度的销售额比去年同比增长，这真是美妙的一年。因此游戏销量依然强劲。（美国银行2022年全球技术大会）但是，考虑一下黄在两个月后英伟达的初步发布中强调的内容。他说：</blockquote>Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took action with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory. - NvidiaTherefore, we believe Huang &amp; team has lost some credibility with us. Moreover, it shows that the company overstated its forecasting models, resulting in weak execution. Given Nvidia&#39;s experience navigating the previous crypto downturn in 2018, we are highly disappointed with how management has managed its guidance heading into its Q2 prelim release.<blockquote>随着本季度的进展，我们的游戏产品销量预测大幅下降。由于我们预期影响销售的宏观经济状况将持续，我们与博彩合作夥伴采取行动调整渠道价格及库存。–NVIDIA因此，我们认为黄和团队已经失去了我们的一些信誉。此外，这表明该公司夸大了其预测模型，导致执行力薄弱。鉴于Nvidia在2018年应对加密货币低迷的经验，我们对管理层在第二季度初步发布前管理指导的方式感到非常失望。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf57b7e1fc91128408275fb9e5712e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Nvidia pro viz and automotive revenue change %(Company filings)<blockquote>Nvidia pro viz和汽车收入变化百分比（公司文件）</blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s pro visualization segment&#39;s growth has also slowed down markedly, reflecting the weakness in its gaming segment. Therefore, the euphoria over the Omniverse opportunity has yet to gain significant traction. As a result, we urge investors to pay attention to its data center growth cadence moving forward, as it&#39;s critical to underpin NVDA&#39;s expensive valuation.<blockquote>英伟达专业可视化部门的增长也明显放缓，反映出其游戏部门的疲软。因此，对Omniverse机会的兴奋尚未获得显着的吸引力。因此，我们敦促投资者关注其数据中心未来的增长节奏，因为这对于支撑NVDA昂贵的估值至关重要。</blockquote>Automotive is the bright spot after tepid growth over the past four quarters. However, QUALCOMM (QCOM) remains confident that it&#39;s the leading player with its digital chassis, given the size of its design pipeline and growth momentum. Therefore, we urge Nvidia investors to pay close attention to Qualcomm&#39;s performance and not simply buy into Nvidia&#39;s commentary on its auto momentum.<blockquote>汽车行业在过去四个季度增长不温不火后成为亮点。然而，鉴于其设计渠道的规模和增长势头，高通(QCOM)仍然相信其数字机箱的领先企业。因此，我们敦促英伟达投资者密切关注高通的业绩，不要简单地相信英伟达对其汽车势头的评论。</blockquote>Qualcomm highlighted in a May conference that its digital chassis competes with Mobileye (INTC) directly, suggesting two of them are leading the pack, without mentioning Nvidia. Management also accentuated in its recent Q3 earnings that it has garnered more than $19B in its auto design pipeline, and delivered auto revenue of $350M, up 38% YoY. Furthermore, the company emphasized that its open platform helps spur adoption by auto OEMs. Therefore, Nvidia investors need to assess the competition from Qualcomm carefully.<blockquote>高通在5月份的一次会议上强调，其数字机箱直接与Mobileye(INTC)竞争，表明其中两家处于领先地位，但没有提及Nvidia。管理层还在最近的第三季度收益中强调，其汽车设计渠道已获得超过19B美元的收入，汽车收入为3.5亿美元，同比增长38%。此外，该公司强调其开放平台有助于刺激汽车原始设备制造商的采用。因此，英伟达投资者需要仔细评估来自高通的竞争。</blockquote>Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>NVDA股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>We are confident that NVDA has likely staged its medium-term bottom in June, in line with its semi peers.<blockquote>我们相信NVDA可能会在6月份出现中期底部，与其semi同行一致。</blockquote>But, growth and tech investors are spoilt for choice, given the tech bear market. Being at a bottom doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that investors should jump on the opportunity to add NVDA, as we believe it could still underperform the market.<blockquote>但是，考虑到科技熊市，成长型和科技投资者的选择太多了。处于底部并不一定意味着投资者应该抓住机会添加NVDA，因为我们认为它的表现仍可能逊于市场。</blockquote>Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA and urge investors to look elsewhere.<blockquote>因此，我们重申对NVDA的持有评级并敦促投资者将目光投向别处。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531838-nvidia-execution-issues-surfacing-with-downcast-q2-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531838-nvidia-execution-issues-surfacing-with-downcast-q2-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124255732","content_text":"SummaryNvidia shocked the market as it posted its Q2 prelim release that came in well below its previous guidance, particularly in gaming. Management has overstated its forecasting models tremendously.We are disappointed that Nvidia didn't learn sufficiently from the previous downturn in 2018 with its overstated guidance. As a result, management has lost some credibility with us.Broadcom warned in September 2021 that the current cycle was unsustainable. But, we have not observed such early warning in Nvidia's commentary. Therefore, execution is very poor.We reiterate our Hold rating, as we believe NVDA could continue underperforming the market.ThesisNVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stunned the market as it announced its Q2 preliminary results that came in well below its guidance and the Street's consensus. We highlighted in our previous article that NVIDIA could continue to underperform the market, even though we assessed that it was near its bottom.While we expected NVDA to stage a short-term rally from its June lows, we didn't envisage NVDA to continue outperforming the market. Notably, NVDA has underperformed the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the Technology ETF (XLK) over the past two months (even before yesterday's sell-off).We maintain our conviction that the market has materially de-rated NVDA, despite its battering from its November 2021 highs. Management has failed to convince us when chips are down that Nvidia could overcome the market's cyclical nature with its so-called \"secular\" opportunities.Coupled with potentially slowing revenue growth and its steep growth premium, we urge investors to find other well-beaten down opportunities in growth and tech stocks to add exposure. Notwithstanding, we expect semis to have bottomed out and do not expect much further downside in NVDA. As a result, we urge investors not to sell in panic.Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA for now.Nvidia Lost Credibility With Its CautionWe are shareholders of NVDA, which account for a reasonable weighting in our portfolio. Therefore, we consider the warning on its Q2 prelim release a massive disappointment but not unexpected.We vividly remember Broadcom (AVGO)CEO Hock Tan cautioned about the current semi downturn in September 2021, demonstrating his prescience and credibility. We also highlighted his comments in our article last year, as he accentuated:And to answer your question point-blank, I do not see any specific drivers or reasons why the strength we see today is really nothing more than of an exaggerated up-cycle. We always go through a period of digestion. There's no way we can consume on all that forever. And that's what is called a cycle, particularly when we expect supply to come into play out of this - out of the current tightness, but dated back to 2020 to start coming in 2023. And the massive investment and CapEx will start deploying capacity in '23 earliest. Then I see '23 where we have supply. And I think digestion of demand might just start to occur. (Broadcom article)Nvidia gaming and data center revenue change %(Company filings)Nvidia warned in its preliminary release for FQ2'23that it expects to post revenue of $6.7B, up by just 3% YoY, down significantly from its previous outlook of $8.1B (up 24.4%).The main culprit is gaming, as Nvidia highlighted that it expects gaming to post a decline of 33.4%, as seen above, even though data center growth remains robust. However, Nvidia's gaming growth has already trended down consistently from its peak growth in FQ1'22, as gaming started to lap challenging comps, complicated by the post-pandemic reopening.Furthermore, the destruction in crypto mining added to the headwinds in gaming cards ASPs, creating further challenges for Nvidia as it prepares to launch its RTX 40-series Ada Lovelace graphics.But, Nvidia has consistently maintained its \"strong\" belief in its gaming segment, often accentuating its strength and consistency. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted in a June conference that he expects gaming to continue posting robust growth cadence. He articulated:China is a significant market. Russia is a meaningful market for our gaming business. However, gaming remains solid even in the face of China and Russia. Q1 sell-through grew year-over-year over last year, which was a really fantastic year. And so gaming sell-through remains solid. (BofA 2022 Global Technology Conference)But, consider what Huang emphasized two months later in Nvidia's prelim release. He said:Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took action with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory. - NvidiaTherefore, we believe Huang & team has lost some credibility with us. Moreover, it shows that the company overstated its forecasting models, resulting in weak execution. Given Nvidia's experience navigating the previous crypto downturn in 2018, we are highly disappointed with how management has managed its guidance heading into its Q2 prelim release.Nvidia pro viz and automotive revenue change %(Company filings)Nvidia's pro visualization segment's growth has also slowed down markedly, reflecting the weakness in its gaming segment. Therefore, the euphoria over the Omniverse opportunity has yet to gain significant traction. As a result, we urge investors to pay attention to its data center growth cadence moving forward, as it's critical to underpin NVDA's expensive valuation.Automotive is the bright spot after tepid growth over the past four quarters. However, QUALCOMM (QCOM) remains confident that it's the leading player with its digital chassis, given the size of its design pipeline and growth momentum. Therefore, we urge Nvidia investors to pay close attention to Qualcomm's performance and not simply buy into Nvidia's commentary on its auto momentum.Qualcomm highlighted in a May conference that its digital chassis competes with Mobileye (INTC) directly, suggesting two of them are leading the pack, without mentioning Nvidia. Management also accentuated in its recent Q3 earnings that it has garnered more than $19B in its auto design pipeline, and delivered auto revenue of $350M, up 38% YoY. Furthermore, the company emphasized that its open platform helps spur adoption by auto OEMs. Therefore, Nvidia investors need to assess the competition from Qualcomm carefully.Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?We are confident that NVDA has likely staged its medium-term bottom in June, in line with its semi peers.But, growth and tech investors are spoilt for choice, given the tech bear market. Being at a bottom doesn't necessarily mean that investors should jump on the opportunity to add NVDA, as we believe it could still underperform the market.Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA and urge investors to look elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1749,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/684918724"}