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2021-12-17

Good for you but I won’t be joining you

SoFi Stock: The More It Falls, The More I Buy<blockquote>SoFi股票：跌得越多，我买得越多</blockquote>

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The ominous warning to not try to catch a falling knife holds true here as the bottom can only ever be truly known in retrospect. To be clear here, I think SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI) is going to keep on dipping. This will be on the back of an absence of a catalyst and as this torrid year fully plays out. As mentioned in my previous article, this weakness is due to the amalgamation of a number of factors that will likely persist for a while.<blockquote>当股票持续下跌时，逢低买入可能很快就会陷入更多的资本破坏。不要试图接住掉落的刀的不祥警告在这里是正确的，因为底部只有在回顾时才能真正知道。需要明确的是，我认为SoFi（纳斯达克股票代码：SOFI）将继续下跌。这将是在缺乏催化剂的情况下，随着今年炎热的一年的全面结束。正如我在上一篇文章中提到的，这种弱点是由于许多因素的综合造成的，这些因素可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote> For the sake of transparency, I aim to control at least 2,500 shares going into 2022. This will be up from 1,000 currently and will hopefully be at a cost average lower than $15 but currently sits higher at $15.78. Hence, the title. The more SoFi falls the more I buy. Critically, this allows me to accumulate more shares at a lower cost average in a company included in the apex of the world's largest economy's shift to digital financial services. The opportunity is truly being underrated by the market.<blockquote>为了透明起见，我的目标是到2022年控制至少2,500股股票。这将高于目前的1,000美元，平均成本有望低于15美元，但目前较高，为15.78美元。因此，标题。SoFi跌得越多，我买的就越多。至关重要的是，这使我能够以较低的平均成本在一家处于全球最大经济体向数字金融服务转型顶峰的公司中积累更多股票。这个机会确实被市场低估了。</blockquote> The 2008 global financial crisis was a watershed moment in Western banking as too big to fail banks failed and trust in the traditional financial orthodoxy was broken. For a new generation of people growing up in the period after the largest economic collapse in a generation, there had to be alternatives. And while this is now in the rearview, the GFC birthed fintech firms like SoFi who have positioned themselves to ride the wave of growing consumer adoption of fintech.<blockquote>2008年全球金融危机是西方银行业的分水岭，大到不能倒的银行倒闭，对传统金融正统的信任被打破。对于在一代人以来最大的经济崩溃之后成长起来的新一代人来说，必须有替代方案。虽然这一点现在已经成为过去，但全球金融中心诞生了像SoFi这样的金融科技公司，这些公司已经做好了驾驭消费者日益采用金融科技的浪潮的准备。</blockquote> SoFi Versus The Great Unbundling Of Financial Services<blockquote>SoFi与金融服务的大分拆</blockquote> American consumers currently face intensely siloed choices for financial products. This means that there is a dependency on a plethora of different app and companies for financial products ranging from loans and credit cards to insurance, wealth management, and savings.<blockquote>美国消费者目前面临着严重孤立的金融产品选择。这意味着从贷款和信用卡到保险、财富管理和储蓄等金融产品依赖于大量不同的应用程序和公司。</blockquote> It's understandable as these all have material TAMs worth north of $2 trillion annually. A sobering fact that has understandably allowed an endless amount of VC money to flow into new firms promising to disrupt a specific stratum of the broader financial services economy.<blockquote>这是可以理解的，因为这些公司每年的材料价值都超过2万亿美元。这是一个发人深省的事实，可以理解的是，源源不断的风险投资资金流入新公司，有望扰乱更广泛的金融服务经济的特定阶层。</blockquote> SoFi differs from this zeitgeist as it aims to build a singular platform in a strong attempt to serve all the financial needs of its members. The stakes could not be higher. This is a land grab with the winners standing to take most of the value. When fintech eventually matures, what's left standing will be the companies with intense scale and most of the consumers. In this sense, SoFi's strategy to build a super-platform to bundle disparate financial products simultaneously exposes them to multi-hundred billion dollar TAMs which aggregate to create immense downstream revenue.<blockquote>SoFi与这种时代精神不同，因为它的目标是建立一个单一的平台，努力满足其成员的所有金融需求。赌注不能再高了。这是一场土地掠夺，获胜者将获得大部分价值。当金融科技最终成熟时，剩下的将是规模庞大的公司和大多数消费者。从这个意义上说，SoFi建立一个超级平台来捆绑不同金融产品的战略同时使它们面临数千亿美元的TAM，这些TAM聚集在一起创造巨大的下游收入。</blockquote> This has meant the company guiding for a 43% 5-year compound annual growth from fiscal 2020. SoFi expects 2025 revenue of no less than $3.67 billion, with the most dramatic growth coming from its financial products and Galileo. While it is hard to forecast future market sentiment, an 8x to 12x price to sales multiple as at the end of 2025 would not be beyond the realms of prudence and would see the company's market cap trade up significantly from its current value of $12.11 billion.<blockquote>这意味着该公司预计从2020财年开始，5年复合年增长率为43%。SoFi预计2025年收入将不少于36.7亿美元，其中最显着的增长来自其金融产品和Galileo。虽然很难预测未来的市场情绪，但到2025年底，8至12倍的市销率不会超出谨慎的范围，并且该公司的市值将从目前121.1亿美元的价值大幅上涨。</blockquote> Looking Forward To 2022<blockquote>展望2022年</blockquote> The continually extended student loan moratorium which paused federal student loan payments and temporarily set the federal student loan interest rate to 0% is set to expire on January 31, 2022. While another extension was ruled out, this was before the emergence of the Omicron variant. Hence, there is a risk that this date is pushed back yet again as the White House is currently being pressured to take such an action due to the economic uncertainty posed. This is a salient risk that shareholders need to be aware of as it would represent a potent reduction of a huge driver of upside for the next year.<blockquote>不断延长的学生贷款暂停令暂停了联邦学生贷款支付，并将联邦学生贷款利率暂时设定为0%，将于2022年1月31日到期。虽然排除了另一次延期，但这是在奥密克戎变体出现之前。因此，这一日期有可能再次推迟，因为由于经济不确定性，白宫目前正面临采取此类行动的压力。这是股东需要意识到的一个突出风险，因为这将意味着明年巨大的上涨动力将大幅减少。</blockquote> Buying The Dip As This Volatility Is Likely The Price Of Longer-Term Alpha<blockquote>逢低买入，因为这种波动性可能是长期阿尔法的价格</blockquote> 2021 has not been a great year for growth investors as dip-buying throughout the year failed to pay off with a selloff that worsened in November. The number of times I bought the dip this year across a number of growth stocks only to see it dip further felt comical at some points.<blockquote>对于成长型投资者来说，2021年并不是伟大的一年，因为全年的逢低买入未能获得回报，11月份的抛售加剧。今年，我多次逢低买入许多成长型股票，却看到它们进一步下跌，这在某些时候感觉很滑稽。</blockquote> However, I understand that this volatility is the price of potential alpha and nothing good goes up in a straight line. While I don't think there will be an immediate respite going into 2022, SoFi is one to hold for years, not months. For fundamentally driven investors, any further dips would likely be welcome.<blockquote>然而，我明白这种波动性是潜在阿尔法的价格，没有什么好东西会直线上升。虽然我认为进入2022年不会立即得到喘息，但SoFi将持续数年，而不是数月。对于基本面驱动的投资者来说，任何进一步的下跌都可能受到欢迎。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1638401102509","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi Stock: The More It Falls, The More I Buy<blockquote>SoFi股票：跌得越多，我买得越多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi Stock: The More It Falls, The More I Buy<blockquote>SoFi股票：跌得越多，我买得越多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-12-17 07:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The great financial crisis catalysed a large shift in the consumption of financial products away from traditional firms.</li> <li>Firms like SoFi stand to benefit from this as growing consumer adoption of digital financial products is a tailwind that will play out over the next decade.</li> <li>SoFi's has differentiated itself and claimed a stake in this future by building a platform that serves the needs of its customers.</li> <li>Flying shopping cart with shopping bags on a pink background</li> </ul> <blockquote><ul><li>大金融危机催化了金融产品消费从传统企业的巨大转变。</li><li>像SoFi这样的公司将从中受益，因为消费者越来越多地采用数字金融产品是未来十年的推动力。</li><li>SoFi's通过构建一个满足客户需求的平台，使自己脱颖而出，并在未来占有一席之地。</li><li>粉色背景上有购物袋的飞行购物车</li></ul></blockquote> Buying the dip can fast become mired in even more capital destruction when a stock keeps on dipping. The ominous warning to not try to catch a falling knife holds true here as the bottom can only ever be truly known in retrospect. To be clear here, I think SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI) is going to keep on dipping. This will be on the back of an absence of a catalyst and as this torrid year fully plays out. As mentioned in my previous article, this weakness is due to the amalgamation of a number of factors that will likely persist for a while.<blockquote>当股票持续下跌时，逢低买入可能很快就会陷入更多的资本破坏。不要试图接住掉落的刀的不祥警告在这里是正确的，因为底部只有在回顾时才能真正知道。需要明确的是，我认为SoFi（纳斯达克股票代码：SOFI）将继续下跌。这将是在缺乏催化剂的情况下，随着今年炎热的一年的全面结束。正如我在上一篇文章中提到的，这种弱点是由于许多因素的综合造成的，这些因素可能会持续一段时间。</blockquote> For the sake of transparency, I aim to control at least 2,500 shares going into 2022. This will be up from 1,000 currently and will hopefully be at a cost average lower than $15 but currently sits higher at $15.78. Hence, the title. The more SoFi falls the more I buy. Critically, this allows me to accumulate more shares at a lower cost average in a company included in the apex of the world's largest economy's shift to digital financial services. The opportunity is truly being underrated by the market.<blockquote>为了透明起见，我的目标是到2022年控制至少2,500股股票。这将高于目前的1,000美元，平均成本有望低于15美元，但目前较高，为15.78美元。因此，标题。SoFi跌得越多，我买的就越多。至关重要的是，这使我能够以较低的平均成本在一家处于全球最大经济体向数字金融服务转型顶峰的公司中积累更多股票。这个机会确实被市场低估了。</blockquote> The 2008 global financial crisis was a watershed moment in Western banking as too big to fail banks failed and trust in the traditional financial orthodoxy was broken. For a new generation of people growing up in the period after the largest economic collapse in a generation, there had to be alternatives. And while this is now in the rearview, the GFC birthed fintech firms like SoFi who have positioned themselves to ride the wave of growing consumer adoption of fintech.<blockquote>2008年全球金融危机是西方银行业的分水岭，大到不能倒的银行倒闭，对传统金融正统的信任被打破。对于在一代人以来最大的经济崩溃之后成长起来的新一代人来说，必须有替代方案。虽然这一点现在已经成为过去，但全球金融中心诞生了像SoFi这样的金融科技公司，这些公司已经做好了驾驭消费者日益采用金融科技的浪潮的准备。</blockquote> SoFi Versus The Great Unbundling Of Financial Services<blockquote>SoFi与金融服务的大分拆</blockquote> American consumers currently face intensely siloed choices for financial products. This means that there is a dependency on a plethora of different app and companies for financial products ranging from loans and credit cards to insurance, wealth management, and savings.<blockquote>美国消费者目前面临着严重孤立的金融产品选择。这意味着从贷款和信用卡到保险、财富管理和储蓄等金融产品依赖于大量不同的应用程序和公司。</blockquote> It's understandable as these all have material TAMs worth north of $2 trillion annually. A sobering fact that has understandably allowed an endless amount of VC money to flow into new firms promising to disrupt a specific stratum of the broader financial services economy.<blockquote>这是可以理解的，因为这些公司每年的材料价值都超过2万亿美元。这是一个发人深省的事实，可以理解的是，源源不断的风险投资资金流入新公司，有望扰乱更广泛的金融服务经济的特定阶层。</blockquote> SoFi differs from this zeitgeist as it aims to build a singular platform in a strong attempt to serve all the financial needs of its members. The stakes could not be higher. This is a land grab with the winners standing to take most of the value. When fintech eventually matures, what's left standing will be the companies with intense scale and most of the consumers. In this sense, SoFi's strategy to build a super-platform to bundle disparate financial products simultaneously exposes them to multi-hundred billion dollar TAMs which aggregate to create immense downstream revenue.<blockquote>SoFi与这种时代精神不同，因为它的目标是建立一个单一的平台，努力满足其成员的所有金融需求。赌注不能再高了。这是一场土地掠夺，获胜者将获得大部分价值。当金融科技最终成熟时，剩下的将是规模庞大的公司和大多数消费者。从这个意义上说，SoFi建立一个超级平台来捆绑不同金融产品的战略同时使它们面临数千亿美元的TAM，这些TAM聚集在一起创造巨大的下游收入。</blockquote> This has meant the company guiding for a 43% 5-year compound annual growth from fiscal 2020. SoFi expects 2025 revenue of no less than $3.67 billion, with the most dramatic growth coming from its financial products and Galileo. While it is hard to forecast future market sentiment, an 8x to 12x price to sales multiple as at the end of 2025 would not be beyond the realms of prudence and would see the company's market cap trade up significantly from its current value of $12.11 billion.<blockquote>这意味着该公司预计从2020财年开始，5年复合年增长率为43%。SoFi预计2025年收入将不少于36.7亿美元，其中最显着的增长来自其金融产品和Galileo。虽然很难预测未来的市场情绪，但到2025年底，8至12倍的市销率不会超出谨慎的范围，并且该公司的市值将从目前121.1亿美元的价值大幅上涨。</blockquote> Looking Forward To 2022<blockquote>展望2022年</blockquote> The continually extended student loan moratorium which paused federal student loan payments and temporarily set the federal student loan interest rate to 0% is set to expire on January 31, 2022. While another extension was ruled out, this was before the emergence of the Omicron variant. Hence, there is a risk that this date is pushed back yet again as the White House is currently being pressured to take such an action due to the economic uncertainty posed. This is a salient risk that shareholders need to be aware of as it would represent a potent reduction of a huge driver of upside for the next year.<blockquote>不断延长的学生贷款暂停令暂停了联邦学生贷款支付，并将联邦学生贷款利率暂时设定为0%，将于2022年1月31日到期。虽然排除了另一次延期，但这是在奥密克戎变体出现之前。因此，这一日期有可能再次推迟，因为由于经济不确定性，白宫目前正面临采取此类行动的压力。这是股东需要意识到的一个突出风险，因为这将意味着明年巨大的上涨动力将大幅减少。</blockquote> Buying The Dip As This Volatility Is Likely The Price Of Longer-Term Alpha<blockquote>逢低买入，因为这种波动性可能是长期阿尔法的价格</blockquote> 2021 has not been a great year for growth investors as dip-buying throughout the year failed to pay off with a selloff that worsened in November. The number of times I bought the dip this year across a number of growth stocks only to see it dip further felt comical at some points.<blockquote>对于成长型投资者来说，2021年并不是伟大的一年，因为全年的逢低买入未能获得回报，11月份的抛售加剧。今年，我多次逢低买入许多成长型股票，却看到它们进一步下跌，这在某些时候感觉很滑稽。</blockquote> However, I understand that this volatility is the price of potential alpha and nothing good goes up in a straight line. While I don't think there will be an immediate respite going into 2022, SoFi is one to hold for years, not months. For fundamentally driven investors, any further dips would likely be welcome.<blockquote>然而，我明白这种波动性是潜在阿尔法的价格，没有什么好东西会直线上升。虽然我认为进入2022年不会立即得到喘息，但SoFi将持续数年，而不是数月。对于基本面驱动的投资者来说，任何进一步的下跌都可能受到欢迎。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474890-sofi-technologies-the-more-it-falls-the-more-i-buy\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474890-sofi-technologies-the-more-it-falls-the-more-i-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160804320","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe great financial crisis catalysed a large shift in the consumption of financial products away from traditional firms.\nFirms like SoFi stand to benefit from this as growing consumer adoption of digital financial products is a tailwind that will play out over the next decade.\nSoFi's has differentiated itself and claimed a stake in this future by building a platform that serves the needs of its customers.\nFlying shopping cart with shopping bags on a pink background\n\n\nBuying the dip can fast become mired in even more capital destruction when a stock keeps on dipping. The ominous warning to not try to catch a falling knife holds true here as the bottom can only ever be truly known in retrospect. To be clear here, I think SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI) is going to keep on dipping. This will be on the back of an absence of a catalyst and as this torrid year fully plays out. As mentioned in my previous article, this weakness is due to the amalgamation of a number of factors that will likely persist for a while.\n\nFor the sake of transparency, I aim to control at least 2,500 shares going into 2022. This will be up from 1,000 currently and will hopefully be at a cost average lower than $15 but currently sits higher at $15.78. Hence, the title. The more SoFi falls the more I buy. Critically, this allows me to accumulate more shares at a lower cost average in a company included in the apex of the world's largest economy's shift to digital financial services. The opportunity is truly being underrated by the market.\n\nThe 2008 global financial crisis was a watershed moment in Western banking as too big to fail banks failed and trust in the traditional financial orthodoxy was broken. For a new generation of people growing up in the period after the largest economic collapse in a generation, there had to be alternatives. And while this is now in the rearview, the GFC birthed fintech firms like SoFi who have positioned themselves to ride the wave of growing consumer adoption of fintech.\n\nSoFi Versus The Great Unbundling Of Financial Services\nAmerican consumers currently face intensely siloed choices for financial products. This means that there is a dependency on a plethora of different app and companies for financial products ranging from loans and credit cards to insurance, wealth management, and savings.\n\nIt's understandable as these all have material TAMs worth north of $2 trillion annually. A sobering fact that has understandably allowed an endless amount of VC money to flow into new firms promising to disrupt a specific stratum of the broader financial services economy.\n\nSoFi differs from this zeitgeist as it aims to build a singular platform in a strong attempt to serve all the financial needs of its members. The stakes could not be higher. This is a land grab with the winners standing to take most of the value. When fintech eventually matures, what's left standing will be the companies with intense scale and most of the consumers. In this sense, SoFi's strategy to build a super-platform to bundle disparate financial products simultaneously exposes them to multi-hundred billion dollar TAMs which aggregate to create immense downstream revenue.\n\nThis has meant the company guiding for a 43% 5-year compound annual growth from fiscal 2020. SoFi expects 2025 revenue of no less than $3.67 billion, with the most dramatic growth coming from its financial products and Galileo. While it is hard to forecast future market sentiment, an 8x to 12x price to sales multiple as at the end of 2025 would not be beyond the realms of prudence and would see the company's market cap trade up significantly from its current value of $12.11 billion.\n\nLooking Forward To 2022\nThe continually extended student loan moratorium which paused federal student loan payments and temporarily set the federal student loan interest rate to 0% is set to expire on January 31, 2022. While another extension was ruled out, this was before the emergence of the Omicron variant. Hence, there is a risk that this date is pushed back yet again as the White House is currently being pressured to take such an action due to the economic uncertainty posed. This is a salient risk that shareholders need to be aware of as it would represent a potent reduction of a huge driver of upside for the next year.\n\nBuying The Dip As This Volatility Is Likely The Price Of Longer-Term Alpha\n2021 has not been a great year for growth investors as dip-buying throughout the year failed to pay off with a selloff that worsened in November. The number of times I bought the dip this year across a number of growth stocks only to see it dip further felt comical at some points.\n\n\nHowever, I understand that this volatility is the price of potential alpha and nothing good goes up in a straight line. While I don't think there will be an immediate respite going into 2022, SoFi is one to hold for years, not months. For fundamentally driven investors, any further dips would likely be welcome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOFI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1941,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":31,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/690414422"}