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2021-12-30
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AMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我2022年和未来十年的首选股票</blockquote>
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The company has tremendous momentum, and it should continue to increase its market share in the CPU segment moving forward. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing substantial revenue growth from the chipmaker in future quarters. Moreover, AMD is growing more profitable and should continue expanding EPS in the coming years. The company's stock price should have another solid year in 2022. Moreover, AMD's perpetual growth and increasing profitability should enable the company's stock to advance notably higher in future years.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)股票去年上涨了70%，一直是全天候投资组合中表现最好的股票。该公司势头强劲，未来应该会继续增加其在CPU领域的市场份额。因此，我们可能会在未来几个季度继续看到这家芯片制造商的收入大幅增长。此外，AMD的利润越来越高，未来几年应该会继续扩大每股收益。该公司的股价在2022年应该会又是一个稳健的一年。此外，AMD的持续增长和不断提高的盈利能力应该会使该公司的股价在未来几年大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>AMD 3-Year Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD 3年图表</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd855019964cf634f5c9c7817fb458b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：StockCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that AMD has been on a steady march higher for several years now. The stock has made about a 750% move in just the last three years, making it one of the top-performing large-cap tech stocks on Wall Street in recent years. While shares became technically overbought during the recent run-up, we should see more upside from AMD after a consolidation phase early next year. I also believe that any substantial pullbacks in AMD should be regarded as buying opportunities if they occur in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到AMD多年来一直在稳步走高。该股仅在过去三年就上涨了约750%，使其成为近年来华尔街表现最好的大型科技股之一。虽然股价在最近的上涨期间技术上变得超买，但在明年初的盘整阶段之后，我们应该会看到AMD的更多上涨空间。我还认为，AMD的任何大幅回调如果发生在未来几个月内，都应被视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Why AMD Continues To Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD为何持续飙升</b></blockquote></p><p>AMD's CPU market share hit a 15-year high recently, as the company's market share continues to climb in the ultra-competitive x86 market. Now, every AMD gain is essentially an Intel (INTC) loss here, and it has been all about AMD lately.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的CPU市场份额最近创下了15年来的新高，因为该公司在竞争异常激烈的x86市场的市场份额继续攀升。现在，AMD的每一个收益本质上都是英特尔(INTC)的损失，而且最近都是关于AMD的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6026105f7bf4779407e601f570ccedd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We've seen AMD's total CPU market share increase substantially in recent years. The company's market share has surged from a low of about 20% in 2015-2018 to roughly 40% recently. While we saw a higher market share in the mid-2000s, I don't believe that AMD's recent rise will be transitory like 15 years ago. AMD is much more established and far better capitalized now. Moreover, the company's execution, performance, and chip technology have topped Intel's in recent years. Therefore, it's not surprising to see market share gains and extreme stock outperformance over Intel lately.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们看到AMD的CPU总市场份额大幅增长。该公司的市场份额已从2015-2018年约20%的低点飙升至最近的约40%。虽然我们在2000年代中期看到了更高的市场份额，但我不认为AMD最近的崛起会像15年前那样是暂时的。AMD现在更加成熟，资本也更加充足。而且，该公司的执行力、性能、芯片技术近年来都超过了英特尔。因此，最近市场份额的增长和股票表现优于英特尔也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d30db882342612fa2b942da319232d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>If we look at the desktop market where a lot of the gaming occurs, AMD briefly overtook Intel this year, crossing the 50% market share line for the first time since 2006. AMD has seen a rapid rise in this segment from the company's 20%-25% share about five years ago. Due to AMD's strong momentum and solid product line, the chipmaker could continue to capture more share in the desktop market in future years. Given the company's trajectory, AMD has a substantial probability of becoming the leader in the desktop CPU segment, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看大量游戏发生的台式机市场，AMD今年短暂超越了英特尔，自2006年以来首次突破了50%的市场份额线。AMD在这一领域的份额从大约五年前的20%-25%迅速上升。由于AMD强劲的势头和坚实的产品线，这家芯片制造商在未来几年可能会继续在台式机市场占据更多份额。在我看来，鉴于该公司的发展轨迹，AMD很有可能成为桌面CPU领域的领导者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82437416408bf193bb7e638a750c90f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The critical battleground remains the laptop market, where AMD's market share was down to only around 8% in recent years. However, the company has recently made significant advances capturing nearly 25% of this lucrative market. The move away from cheaper, low-performance devices has helped AMD in this segment. Moreover, the trend toward higher-end performance laptops should enable AMD to retain a larger share of the laptop market in future years. Furthermore, AMD's robust momentum should allow the company to continue innovating, allowing it to grow its market share from here.</p><p><blockquote>关键的战场仍然是笔记本电脑市场，AMD的市场份额近年来下降到只有8%左右。然而，该公司最近取得了重大进展，占领了这个利润丰厚的市场近25%的份额。远离更便宜、性能较低的设备有助于AMD在这一领域的发展。此外，更高端性能笔记本电脑的趋势应该会使AMD在未来几年保持笔记本电脑市场的更大份额。此外，AMD的强劲势头应该使该公司能够继续创新，使其能够从这里扩大市场份额。</blockquote></p><p><b>AMD vs. Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD与英特尔</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc483b40eae241e17cc4061f03271595\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In recent years, we see AMD's dramatic outperformance over Intel, and the stock's trajectory correlates closely with AMD's continued market share gains in the CPU market. However, even if the company's market share gain slows down or stagnates in the future, I don't believe that AMD's stock will crash. AMD has an established place in the market now. The company's growth should continue, and even if the stock moves sideways or slightly lower in the near-term, intermediate and longer-term gains should follow.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们看到AMD的表现显着优于英特尔，该股的走势与AMD在CPU市场份额的持续增长密切相关。然而，即使未来该公司的市场份额增长放缓或停滞，我也不认为AMD的股票会崩盘。AMD现在在市场上已经站稳了脚跟。该公司的增长应该会继续，即使该股近期横盘整理或小幅走低，中期和长期收益也应该随之而来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation May Seem High But The Growth Is Worth It</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值看似很高，但增长是值得的</b></blockquote></p><p>AMD's consensus EPS forecasts are $3.13 in its next four quarters. This figure puts AMD's forward P/E ratio at approximately 49. While 49 times forward EPS estimates may seem high, AMD has the growth to support such a multiple.</p><p><blockquote>AMD未来四个季度的普遍每股收益预测为3.13美元。这一数字使AMD的预期市盈率约为49。虽然49倍的预期每股收益似乎很高，但AMD的增长足以支持这样的倍数。</blockquote></p><p><b>EPS Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每股收益估计</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ecee7246de09d54f8431a28932f5ca7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Most analysts anticipate AMD will deliver robust double-digit EPS growth for at least several more years moving forward. Consensus EPS estimates are $3.99 in 2023, roughly a 50% rise over this year's anticipated $2.64 result. Moreover, AMD has illustrated a tenacity for surpassing analysts' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>大多数分析师预计，AMD至少在未来几年内将实现两位数的强劲每股收益增长。市场普遍预期2023年每股收益为3.99美元，比今年预期的2.64美元增长约50%。此外，AMD表现出了超越分析师预期的坚韧。</blockquote></p><p><b>EPS Surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EPS惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfbefd1757816f8103ba2609c1148c8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMD has surpassed consensus estimates in seven of its last eight quarters. The company has beat forecasts by an average of 14% in its previous four quarters. Therefore, I anticipate that we will see more outperformance moving forward. Even if AMD beats consensus EPS estimates by an average of only 10% in 2023, the company will deliver about $4.40. This EPS figure implies that AMD is trading at around 35 times 2023 EPS estimates right now. However, due to the company's powerful momentum, robust growth should continue well beyond 2023.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在过去八个季度中有七个季度的业绩超出了市场普遍预期。该公司在过去四个季度中平均超出预期14%。因此，我预计未来我们将看到更多优异的表现。即使AMD 2023年每股收益平均仅超出市场普遍预期10%，该公司的盈利也将约为4.40美元。这一每股收益数据意味着AMD目前的交易价格约为2023年每股收益预期的35倍。然而，由于该公司强劲的势头，强劲的增长应该会持续到2023年之后。</blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入估计</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94249d68f94c71b809df65a4d17238cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that double-digit revenue growth should continue at AMD, and this trend of solid revenue growth is likely to persist well beyond 2023. While consensus estimates are $22 billion in 2023, higher-end forecasts imply that the company can deliver north of $24 billion. These are explosive figures provided that AMD reported Q3 2020 revenues of $2.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为AMD的两位数收入增长应该会持续下去，而且这种稳健的收入增长趋势可能会持续到2023年之后。虽然普遍估计2023年的销售额为220亿美元，但更高端的预测意味着该公司的销售额可以超过240亿美元。假设AMD报告2020年第三季度收入为28亿美元，这些数字都是爆炸性的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Q3 2021 Financial Information</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年第三季度财务信息</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b112287e77c3985b0453387ea223cc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: AMD.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：AMD.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that AMD's revenues surged by a whopping 54% YoY in the company's latest earnings report. While next year's Q3 consensus estimates are for an 18% YoY increase, I suspect that AMD can surprise higher, delivering revenue growth north of 20%. In addition to the company's substantial sales growth, AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable. Last quarter we saw gross profit explode to more than $2 billion, a 70% YoY increase. Moreover, gross profit margin increased substantially from 44% in Q3 2020 to 48% last quarter. Net income skyrocketed by 137% from $390 million to $923 million for the same time frame. We can see that AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale, and we will likely continue to see high profitability growth from AMD as the company advances.</p><p><blockquote>我们在该公司最新的财报中看到，AMD的收入同比飙升54%。虽然明年第三季度的普遍预期是同比增长18%，但我怀疑AMD可能会出人意料地更高，实现20%以上的收入增长。除了公司销售额大幅增长之外，AMD的盈利能力也越来越强。上个季度，我们的毛利润激增至超过20亿美元，同比增长70%。此外，毛利率由2020年第三季度的44%大幅上升至上季度的48%。同期净利润猛增137%，从3.9亿美元增至9.23亿美元。我们可以看到，随着规模的扩大，AMD的盈利能力越来越强，随着公司的发展，我们可能会继续看到AMD的高盈利能力增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here is what AMD's financials could look like in future years:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是AMD未来几年的财务状况：</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd1ed829c5e52bdad466de22b5e8969\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"407\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者材料</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p>I expect AMD will continue to expand sales at 15%-20% annually through 2025, after which the company's revenue growth should slow into the 8%-10% range toward the end of the decade. However, AMD's EPS should be considerably higher by this time, roughly $15-$20. Therefore, even a substantially lower P/E multiple should provide us with a stock price much higher than we see today. If AMD continues to execute well in the coming years, I expect the company's share price to appreciate to about $500 by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD将继续以每年15%-20%的速度扩大销售额，之后该公司的收入增长将在本世纪末放缓至8%-10%的范围。然而，AMD此时的每股收益应该会高得多，大约为15-20美元。因此，即使市盈率大幅降低，我们的股价也应该比今天高得多。如果AMD在未来几年继续表现良好，我预计该公司的股价到2030年将升值至500美元左右。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks To AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite my bullish outlook for the company, investors must remain aware that risks exist. AMD has a relatively high multiple, and some consider the stock overvalued right now. Therefore, market volatility and further deflation of high multiple stocks could impact AMD's stock price. Moreover, Intel could bounce back, and the company could begin taking back some of its lost market share. In such a scenario, we could see AMD's share of the CPU market decline along with the company's share price. AMD remains an elevated risk/reward investment and may not be suitable for conservative investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我看好该公司的前景，但投资者必须意识到风险的存在。AMD的市盈率相对较高，一些人认为该股目前被高估。因此，市场波动和高市盈率股票的进一步通缩可能会影响AMD的股价。此外，英特尔可能会反弹，该公司可能会开始夺回一些失去的市场份额。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到AMD在CPU市场的份额随着公司股价的下降。AMD仍然是一项高风险/回报较高的投资，可能不适合保守的投资者。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我2022年和未来十年的首选股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我2022年和未来十年的首选股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 16:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>AMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.</li><li>The company has captured substantial market share in the CPU segment, and it's not likely to give up gains.</li><li>AMD should continue to deliver significant revenue growth in future years, and the company is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale.</li><li>While AMD's stock could consolidate in the near term, shares are likely to appreciate considerably in the long run.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad09afc88b98d84d101279ec2e71adec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>vchal/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD在2021年表现出色，2022年应该是又一个伟大的一年。</li><li>该公司已经在CPU领域占据了相当大的市场份额，而且不太可能放弃收益。</li><li>AMD在未来几年应该会继续实现显着的收入增长，并且随着规模的扩大，该公司的盈利能力也越来越强。</li><li>虽然AMD的股价可能会在短期内盘整，但从长远来看，股价可能会大幅升值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vchal/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>With a 70% gain over the last year, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been a top performer in the All-Weather Portfolio. The company has tremendous momentum, and it should continue to increase its market share in the CPU segment moving forward. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing substantial revenue growth from the chipmaker in future quarters. Moreover, AMD is growing more profitable and should continue expanding EPS in the coming years. The company's stock price should have another solid year in 2022. Moreover, AMD's perpetual growth and increasing profitability should enable the company's stock to advance notably higher in future years.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)股票去年上涨了70%，一直是全天候投资组合中表现最好的股票。该公司势头强劲，未来应该会继续增加其在CPU领域的市场份额。因此，我们可能会在未来几个季度继续看到这家芯片制造商的收入大幅增长。此外，AMD的利润越来越高，未来几年应该会继续扩大每股收益。该公司的股价在2022年应该会又是一个稳健的一年。此外，AMD的持续增长和不断提高的盈利能力应该会使该公司的股价在未来几年大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p><b>AMD 3-Year Chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD 3年图表</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd855019964cf634f5c9c7817fb458b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: StockCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：StockCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that AMD has been on a steady march higher for several years now. The stock has made about a 750% move in just the last three years, making it one of the top-performing large-cap tech stocks on Wall Street in recent years. While shares became technically overbought during the recent run-up, we should see more upside from AMD after a consolidation phase early next year. I also believe that any substantial pullbacks in AMD should be regarded as buying opportunities if they occur in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到AMD多年来一直在稳步走高。该股仅在过去三年就上涨了约750%，使其成为近年来华尔街表现最好的大型科技股之一。虽然股价在最近的上涨期间技术上变得超买，但在明年初的盘整阶段之后，我们应该会看到AMD的更多上涨空间。我还认为，AMD的任何大幅回调如果发生在未来几个月内，都应被视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Why AMD Continues To Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD为何持续飙升</b></blockquote></p><p>AMD's CPU market share hit a 15-year high recently, as the company's market share continues to climb in the ultra-competitive x86 market. Now, every AMD gain is essentially an Intel (INTC) loss here, and it has been all about AMD lately.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的CPU市场份额最近创下了15年来的新高，因为该公司在竞争异常激烈的x86市场的市场份额继续攀升。现在，AMD的每一个收益本质上都是英特尔(INTC)的损失，而且最近都是关于AMD的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6026105f7bf4779407e601f570ccedd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We've seen AMD's total CPU market share increase substantially in recent years. The company's market share has surged from a low of about 20% in 2015-2018 to roughly 40% recently. While we saw a higher market share in the mid-2000s, I don't believe that AMD's recent rise will be transitory like 15 years ago. AMD is much more established and far better capitalized now. Moreover, the company's execution, performance, and chip technology have topped Intel's in recent years. Therefore, it's not surprising to see market share gains and extreme stock outperformance over Intel lately.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们看到AMD的CPU总市场份额大幅增长。该公司的市场份额已从2015-2018年约20%的低点飙升至最近的约40%。虽然我们在2000年代中期看到了更高的市场份额，但我不认为AMD最近的崛起会像15年前那样是暂时的。AMD现在更加成熟，资本也更加充足。而且，该公司的执行力、性能、芯片技术近年来都超过了英特尔。因此，最近市场份额的增长和股票表现优于英特尔也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d30db882342612fa2b942da319232d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>If we look at the desktop market where a lot of the gaming occurs, AMD briefly overtook Intel this year, crossing the 50% market share line for the first time since 2006. AMD has seen a rapid rise in this segment from the company's 20%-25% share about five years ago. Due to AMD's strong momentum and solid product line, the chipmaker could continue to capture more share in the desktop market in future years. Given the company's trajectory, AMD has a substantial probability of becoming the leader in the desktop CPU segment, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看大量游戏发生的台式机市场，AMD今年短暂超越了英特尔，自2006年以来首次突破了50%的市场份额线。AMD在这一领域的份额从大约五年前的20%-25%迅速上升。由于AMD强劲的势头和坚实的产品线，这家芯片制造商在未来几年可能会继续在台式机市场占据更多份额。在我看来，鉴于该公司的发展轨迹，AMD很有可能成为桌面CPU领域的领导者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82437416408bf193bb7e638a750c90f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: cpubenchmark.net</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：cpubenchmark.net</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The critical battleground remains the laptop market, where AMD's market share was down to only around 8% in recent years. However, the company has recently made significant advances capturing nearly 25% of this lucrative market. The move away from cheaper, low-performance devices has helped AMD in this segment. Moreover, the trend toward higher-end performance laptops should enable AMD to retain a larger share of the laptop market in future years. Furthermore, AMD's robust momentum should allow the company to continue innovating, allowing it to grow its market share from here.</p><p><blockquote>关键的战场仍然是笔记本电脑市场，AMD的市场份额近年来下降到只有8%左右。然而，该公司最近取得了重大进展，占领了这个利润丰厚的市场近25%的份额。远离更便宜、性能较低的设备有助于AMD在这一领域的发展。此外，更高端性能笔记本电脑的趋势应该会使AMD在未来几年保持笔记本电脑市场的更大份额。此外，AMD的强劲势头应该使该公司能够继续创新，使其能够从这里扩大市场份额。</blockquote></p><p><b>AMD vs. Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD与英特尔</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc483b40eae241e17cc4061f03271595\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In recent years, we see AMD's dramatic outperformance over Intel, and the stock's trajectory correlates closely with AMD's continued market share gains in the CPU market. However, even if the company's market share gain slows down or stagnates in the future, I don't believe that AMD's stock will crash. AMD has an established place in the market now. The company's growth should continue, and even if the stock moves sideways or slightly lower in the near-term, intermediate and longer-term gains should follow.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们看到AMD的表现显着优于英特尔，该股的走势与AMD在CPU市场份额的持续增长密切相关。然而，即使未来该公司的市场份额增长放缓或停滞，我也不认为AMD的股票会崩盘。AMD现在在市场上已经站稳了脚跟。该公司的增长应该会继续，即使该股近期横盘整理或小幅走低，中期和长期收益也应该随之而来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation May Seem High But The Growth Is Worth It</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值看似很高，但增长是值得的</b></blockquote></p><p>AMD's consensus EPS forecasts are $3.13 in its next four quarters. This figure puts AMD's forward P/E ratio at approximately 49. While 49 times forward EPS estimates may seem high, AMD has the growth to support such a multiple.</p><p><blockquote>AMD未来四个季度的普遍每股收益预测为3.13美元。这一数字使AMD的预期市盈率约为49。虽然49倍的预期每股收益似乎很高，但AMD的增长足以支持这样的倍数。</blockquote></p><p><b>EPS Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每股收益估计</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ecee7246de09d54f8431a28932f5ca7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Most analysts anticipate AMD will deliver robust double-digit EPS growth for at least several more years moving forward. Consensus EPS estimates are $3.99 in 2023, roughly a 50% rise over this year's anticipated $2.64 result. Moreover, AMD has illustrated a tenacity for surpassing analysts' expectations.</p><p><blockquote>大多数分析师预计，AMD至少在未来几年内将实现两位数的强劲每股收益增长。市场普遍预期2023年每股收益为3.99美元，比今年预期的2.64美元增长约50%。此外，AMD表现出了超越分析师预期的坚韧。</blockquote></p><p><b>EPS Surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EPS惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfbefd1757816f8103ba2609c1148c8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMD has surpassed consensus estimates in seven of its last eight quarters. The company has beat forecasts by an average of 14% in its previous four quarters. Therefore, I anticipate that we will see more outperformance moving forward. Even if AMD beats consensus EPS estimates by an average of only 10% in 2023, the company will deliver about $4.40. This EPS figure implies that AMD is trading at around 35 times 2023 EPS estimates right now. However, due to the company's powerful momentum, robust growth should continue well beyond 2023.</p><p><blockquote>AMD在过去八个季度中有七个季度的业绩超出了市场普遍预期。该公司在过去四个季度中平均超出预期14%。因此，我预计未来我们将看到更多优异的表现。即使AMD 2023年每股收益平均仅超出市场普遍预期10%，该公司的盈利也将约为4.40美元。这一每股收益数据意味着AMD目前的交易价格约为2023年每股收益预期的35倍。然而，由于该公司强劲的势头，强劲的增长应该会持续到2023年之后。</blockquote></p><p><b>Revenue Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入估计</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94249d68f94c71b809df65a4d17238cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: SeekingAlpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that double-digit revenue growth should continue at AMD, and this trend of solid revenue growth is likely to persist well beyond 2023. While consensus estimates are $22 billion in 2023, higher-end forecasts imply that the company can deliver north of $24 billion. These are explosive figures provided that AMD reported Q3 2020 revenues of $2.8 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为AMD的两位数收入增长应该会持续下去，而且这种稳健的收入增长趋势可能会持续到2023年之后。虽然普遍估计2023年的销售额为220亿美元，但更高端的预测意味着该公司的销售额可以超过240亿美元。假设AMD报告2020年第三季度收入为28亿美元，这些数字都是爆炸性的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Q3 2021 Financial Information</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年第三季度财务信息</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b112287e77c3985b0453387ea223cc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: AMD.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：AMD.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that AMD's revenues surged by a whopping 54% YoY in the company's latest earnings report. While next year's Q3 consensus estimates are for an 18% YoY increase, I suspect that AMD can surprise higher, delivering revenue growth north of 20%. In addition to the company's substantial sales growth, AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable. Last quarter we saw gross profit explode to more than $2 billion, a 70% YoY increase. Moreover, gross profit margin increased substantially from 44% in Q3 2020 to 48% last quarter. Net income skyrocketed by 137% from $390 million to $923 million for the same time frame. We can see that AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale, and we will likely continue to see high profitability growth from AMD as the company advances.</p><p><blockquote>我们在该公司最新的财报中看到，AMD的收入同比飙升54%。虽然明年第三季度的普遍预期是同比增长18%，但我怀疑AMD可能会出人意料地更高，实现20%以上的收入增长。除了公司销售额大幅增长之外，AMD的盈利能力也越来越强。上个季度，我们的毛利润激增至超过20亿美元，同比增长70%。此外，毛利率由2020年第三季度的44%大幅上升至上季度的48%。同期净利润猛增137%，从3.9亿美元增至9.23亿美元。我们可以看到，随着规模的扩大，AMD的盈利能力越来越强，随着公司的发展，我们可能会继续看到AMD的高盈利能力增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Here is what AMD's financials could look like in future years:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是AMD未来几年的财务状况：</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd1ed829c5e52bdad466de22b5e8969\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"407\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者材料</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p>I expect AMD will continue to expand sales at 15%-20% annually through 2025, after which the company's revenue growth should slow into the 8%-10% range toward the end of the decade. However, AMD's EPS should be considerably higher by this time, roughly $15-$20. Therefore, even a substantially lower P/E multiple should provide us with a stock price much higher than we see today. If AMD continues to execute well in the coming years, I expect the company's share price to appreciate to about $500 by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD将继续以每年15%-20%的速度扩大销售额，之后该公司的收入增长将在本世纪末放缓至8%-10%的范围。然而，AMD此时的每股收益应该会高得多，大约为15-20美元。因此，即使市盈率大幅降低，我们的股价也应该比今天高得多。如果AMD在未来几年继续表现良好，我预计该公司的股价到2030年将升值至500美元左右。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks To AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite my bullish outlook for the company, investors must remain aware that risks exist. AMD has a relatively high multiple, and some consider the stock overvalued right now. Therefore, market volatility and further deflation of high multiple stocks could impact AMD's stock price. Moreover, Intel could bounce back, and the company could begin taking back some of its lost market share. In such a scenario, we could see AMD's share of the CPU market decline along with the company's share price. AMD remains an elevated risk/reward investment and may not be suitable for conservative investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我看好该公司的前景，但投资者必须意识到风险的存在。AMD的市盈率相对较高，一些人认为该股目前被高估。因此，市场波动和高市盈率股票的进一步通缩可能会影响AMD的股价。此外，英特尔可能会反弹，该公司可能会开始夺回一些失去的市场份额。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到AMD在CPU市场的份额随着公司股价的下降。AMD仍然是一项高风险/回报较高的投资，可能不适合保守的投资者。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477197-amd-my-top-pick-for-2022-and-the-next-decade\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477197-amd-my-top-pick-for-2022-and-the-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187913769","content_text":"SummaryAMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.The company has captured substantial market share in the CPU segment, and it's not likely to give up gains.AMD should continue to deliver significant revenue growth in future years, and the company is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale.While AMD's stock could consolidate in the near term, shares are likely to appreciate considerably in the long run.vchal/iStock via Getty ImagesWith a 70% gain over the last year, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been a top performer in the All-Weather Portfolio. The company has tremendous momentum, and it should continue to increase its market share in the CPU segment moving forward. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing substantial revenue growth from the chipmaker in future quarters. Moreover, AMD is growing more profitable and should continue expanding EPS in the coming years. The company's stock price should have another solid year in 2022. Moreover, AMD's perpetual growth and increasing profitability should enable the company's stock to advance notably higher in future years.AMD 3-Year ChartSource: StockCharts.comWe see that AMD has been on a steady march higher for several years now. The stock has made about a 750% move in just the last three years, making it one of the top-performing large-cap tech stocks on Wall Street in recent years. While shares became technically overbought during the recent run-up, we should see more upside from AMD after a consolidation phase early next year. I also believe that any substantial pullbacks in AMD should be regarded as buying opportunities if they occur in the next few months.Why AMD Continues To SurgeAMD's CPU market share hit a 15-year high recently, as the company's market share continues to climb in the ultra-competitive x86 market. Now, every AMD gain is essentially an Intel (INTC) loss here, and it has been all about AMD lately.Source: cpubenchmark.netWe've seen AMD's total CPU market share increase substantially in recent years. The company's market share has surged from a low of about 20% in 2015-2018 to roughly 40% recently. While we saw a higher market share in the mid-2000s, I don't believe that AMD's recent rise will be transitory like 15 years ago. AMD is much more established and far better capitalized now. Moreover, the company's execution, performance, and chip technology have topped Intel's in recent years. Therefore, it's not surprising to see market share gains and extreme stock outperformance over Intel lately.Source: cpubenchmark.netIf we look at the desktop market where a lot of the gaming occurs, AMD briefly overtook Intel this year, crossing the 50% market share line for the first time since 2006. AMD has seen a rapid rise in this segment from the company's 20%-25% share about five years ago. Due to AMD's strong momentum and solid product line, the chipmaker could continue to capture more share in the desktop market in future years. Given the company's trajectory, AMD has a substantial probability of becoming the leader in the desktop CPU segment, in my view.Source: cpubenchmark.netThe critical battleground remains the laptop market, where AMD's market share was down to only around 8% in recent years. However, the company has recently made significant advances capturing nearly 25% of this lucrative market. The move away from cheaper, low-performance devices has helped AMD in this segment. Moreover, the trend toward higher-end performance laptops should enable AMD to retain a larger share of the laptop market in future years. Furthermore, AMD's robust momentum should allow the company to continue innovating, allowing it to grow its market share from here.AMD vs. IntelData by YChartsIn recent years, we see AMD's dramatic outperformance over Intel, and the stock's trajectory correlates closely with AMD's continued market share gains in the CPU market. However, even if the company's market share gain slows down or stagnates in the future, I don't believe that AMD's stock will crash. AMD has an established place in the market now. The company's growth should continue, and even if the stock moves sideways or slightly lower in the near-term, intermediate and longer-term gains should follow.Valuation May Seem High But The Growth Is Worth ItAMD's consensus EPS forecasts are $3.13 in its next four quarters. This figure puts AMD's forward P/E ratio at approximately 49. While 49 times forward EPS estimates may seem high, AMD has the growth to support such a multiple.EPS EstimatesSource: SeekingAlpha.comMost analysts anticipate AMD will deliver robust double-digit EPS growth for at least several more years moving forward. Consensus EPS estimates are $3.99 in 2023, roughly a 50% rise over this year's anticipated $2.64 result. Moreover, AMD has illustrated a tenacity for surpassing analysts' expectations.EPS SurprisesSource: SeekingAlpha.comAMD has surpassed consensus estimates in seven of its last eight quarters. The company has beat forecasts by an average of 14% in its previous four quarters. Therefore, I anticipate that we will see more outperformance moving forward. Even if AMD beats consensus EPS estimates by an average of only 10% in 2023, the company will deliver about $4.40. This EPS figure implies that AMD is trading at around 35 times 2023 EPS estimates right now. However, due to the company's powerful momentum, robust growth should continue well beyond 2023.Revenue EstimatesSource: SeekingAlpha.comWe see that double-digit revenue growth should continue at AMD, and this trend of solid revenue growth is likely to persist well beyond 2023. While consensus estimates are $22 billion in 2023, higher-end forecasts imply that the company can deliver north of $24 billion. These are explosive figures provided that AMD reported Q3 2020 revenues of $2.8 billion.Q3 2021 Financial InformationSource: AMD.comWe see that AMD's revenues surged by a whopping 54% YoY in the company's latest earnings report. While next year's Q3 consensus estimates are for an 18% YoY increase, I suspect that AMD can surprise higher, delivering revenue growth north of 20%. In addition to the company's substantial sales growth, AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable. Last quarter we saw gross profit explode to more than $2 billion, a 70% YoY increase. Moreover, gross profit margin increased substantially from 44% in Q3 2020 to 48% last quarter. Net income skyrocketed by 137% from $390 million to $923 million for the same time frame. We can see that AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale, and we will likely continue to see high profitability growth from AMD as the company advances.Here is what AMD's financials could look like in future years:Source: Author's MaterialThe Bottom LineI expect AMD will continue to expand sales at 15%-20% annually through 2025, after which the company's revenue growth should slow into the 8%-10% range toward the end of the decade. However, AMD's EPS should be considerably higher by this time, roughly $15-$20. Therefore, even a substantially lower P/E multiple should provide us with a stock price much higher than we see today. If AMD continues to execute well in the coming years, I expect the company's share price to appreciate to about $500 by 2030.Risks To AMDDespite my bullish outlook for the company, investors must remain aware that risks exist. AMD has a relatively high multiple, and some consider the stock overvalued right now. Therefore, market volatility and further deflation of high multiple stocks could impact AMD's stock price. Moreover, Intel could bounce back, and the company could begin taking back some of its lost market share. In such a scenario, we could see AMD's share of the CPU market decline along with the company's share price. AMD remains an elevated risk/reward investment and may not be suitable for conservative investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692328272"}
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