MayTan
2021-12-27
Noted
The stock market hasn't been this stomach-churning in December since 2018. Here's the set-up for the year's final week.<blockquote>自2018年以来，12月股市从未如此令人反胃。这是今年最后一周的安排。</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":696034401,"tweetId":"696034401","gmtCreate":1640571944898,"gmtModify":1640571985679,"author":{"id":3573019619191060,"idStr":"3573019619191060","authorId":3573019619191060,"authorIdStr":"3573019619191060","name":"MayTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/808e2dbe5d70103ebf181c1496a31644","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":79,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Noted</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Noted</p></body></html>","text":"Noted","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696034401","repostId":2193330173,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2193330173","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1640587674,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2193330173?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 14:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market hasn't been this stomach-churning in December since 2018. Here's the set-up for the year's final week.<blockquote>自2018年以来，12月股市从未如此令人反胃。这是今年最后一周的安排。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2193330173","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"What started out as a lump of coal turned into a gift for bullish investors: a record for the S&P 50","content":"<p>What started out as a lump of coal turned into a gift for bullish investors: a record for the S&P 500 index to end the week before the Christmas holiday.</p><p><blockquote>最初的一块煤变成了给看涨投资者的礼物：标普500指数在圣诞节假期前一周收盘创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> But if you've got this market figured out, you're among the few.</p><p><blockquote>但是如果你已经了解了这个市场，你就是少数几个之一。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the scene on Wall Street may have felt to many investors much like how former UFC champion Tyron Woodley's week ended last Saturday in his contest against the YouTube-star-turned-prizefighter Jake Paul:</p><p><blockquote>周一，华尔街的场景可能对许多投资者来说很像前UFC冠军泰伦·伍德利(Tyron Woodley)上周六结束的一周，他与YouTube明星出身的职业拳击手杰克·保罗(Jake Paul)的比赛：</blockquote></p><p> In Wall Street's case, the omicron variant of the coronavirus, and a host of other worries, including looming monetary-policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, subbed in for Paul's devastating sixth-round overhand blow, leveling the Dow Jones Industrial Average , the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 in a bruising session last Monday to start the holiday-abbreviated week. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote>就华尔街而言，冠状病毒的omicron变种以及包括美联储即将收紧货币政策在内的一系列其他担忧取代了Paul毁灭性的第六轮上手打击，拖累了道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数和标普500上周一在假期缩短的一周开始时表现强劲。美国市场周五因圣诞节休市。</blockquote></p><p> However, this is how some investors may feel the week ended, with spectacular aplomb shown by a stock market that had so recently seemed destined to be chopped down to size in the final few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这就是一些投资者在本周结束时的感受，股市表现出惊人的沉着，而最近似乎注定要在2021年最后几周缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the S&P 500 index booked its 68th record close of 2021, finishing the week up 3.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average booked a 4.4% gain and the Nasdaq Composite registered a more quotidian 0.7% gain after sinking more than halfway toward correction level at its lowest point during the volatile trading stretch.</p><p><blockquote>周四，标普500指数创下2021年第68次收盘纪录，本周上涨3.6%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨4.4%，纳斯达克综合指数在下跌一半以上后，每日上涨0.7%。在波动的交易时段，修正水平处于最低点。</blockquote></p><p> Data analysts at Dow Jones observed that the capping of Monday's fall by an end-of-the-week record for S&P 500 also occurred on July 19 when the index fell 1.9% only to end the week at a record high.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯的数据分析师观察到，标普500周一的跌幅也出现在7月19日，当时该指数下跌1.9%，但本周结束时创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> More broadly, the volatility this December so far has been stomach-churning. It's been the choppiest since 2018, the last time interest-rate increases were on the table at the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>更广泛地说，今年12月迄今为止的波动性令人反胃。这是自2018年美联储上次讨论加息以来最不稳定的一次。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed124ff95743264ac45c75737c965a2\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Dow Jones Market Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And the so-called Santa Claus rally, a seasonally bullish period in the last five trading sessions of a year and the first two in the new year, is yet to commence. That's if Santa deigns to dole out any additional gifts at all after the scintillation of the past three sessions.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的圣诞老人反弹，即一年最后五个交易日和新年前两个交易日的季节性牛市，尚未开始。如果圣诞老人在过去三次会议的闪烁之后屈尊分发任何额外的礼物。</blockquote></p><p> The analysts at Leuthold Group write that, since 1972, the Santa Claus rally has produced an S&P 500 average gain of 1.26%, which is \"60 basis points below the average for Santa Claus rallies from 1928 to 1972.\"</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group的分析师写道，自1972年以来，圣诞老人集会使标普500的平均涨幅为1.26%，“比1928年至1972年圣诞老人集会的平均涨幅低60个基点”。</blockquote></p><p> Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, confirmed that there is an overwhelming tendency for the market to rally during that period, though it isn't clear what to attribute the bullish uptrend to, other than Old St. Nick himself.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)证实，在此期间市场有压倒性的反弹趋势，尽管目前尚不清楚除了老圣尼克本人之外，看涨上升趋势的原因是什么。</blockquote></p><p> But we didn't come here to marvel at the Santa Claus rally but rather the indefatigability of this market.</p><p><blockquote>但我们来这里并不是为了惊叹圣诞老人的集会，而是为了惊叹这个市场的不知疲倦。</blockquote></p><p> Nothing has changed about the market dynamic besides investors' ability to fade negative headlines, including those centered on omicron and the outlook for inflation in years to come. On Thursday, data showed that the 12-month increase in the U.S. PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, had jumped to 5.7% in November from 5% in the prior month. That's the highest rate since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>除了投资者能够淡化负面头条新闻（包括以奥密克戎和未来几年通胀前景为中心的新闻）之外，市场动态没有任何变化。周四，数据显示，美联储首选的通胀指标美国PCE指数12个月涨幅已从上月的5%跃升至11月的5.7%。这是自1982年以来的最高比率。</blockquote></p><p> Wolf Richter of the popular financial blog Wolf Street sounded as befuddled as many have been about policy from the Federal Reserve in a recent column.</p><p><blockquote>流行金融博客Wolf Street的Wolf Richter在最近的一篇专栏文章中听起来和许多人一样对美联储的政策感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is shooting higher even as this Fed is still repressing short-term interest rates to near 0% and is still printing money hand over fist, though less than it did two months ago. And the Fed has finally backed off its ridiculous claims that this inflation, caused by enormous historic amounts of money printing and interest rate repression, is just temporary and due to bottlenecks and supply chains. </p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储仍将短期利率压制在接近0%的水平，并且仍在大量印钞，但通胀仍在飙升，尽管比两个月前有所减少。美联储终于放弃了其荒谬的说法，即这种由历史上巨额印钞和利率抑制引起的通胀只是暂时的，是由瓶颈和供应链造成的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57072949565e1587bb225d8f96f16c9c\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via WolfStreet.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过WolfStreet.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Fed announced in mid-December that it is cutting back on its bond buying at a faster clip, and projections from members of the central bank's policy-setting panel of late point to three interest-rate increases in 2022. That move was meant to deflate some of the market's bullishness, but investors continue to read the Fed's hawkish policy pivot as dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在12月中旬宣布将以更快的速度削减债券购买，央行政策制定小组成员最近预测2022年将加息三次。此举旨在抑制市场的部分看涨情绪，但投资者继续将美联储的鹰派政策转向解读为鸽派。</blockquote></p><p> Are fears about the spread of the omicron variant of the coronavirus causing the disease COVID-19 unwarranted because vaccines and remedies can handle it? Are people just too fatigued to consider the impact of lockdowns and mobility restrictions? Has inflation peaked, or is it already priced into stocks and bonds? Who knows?</p><p><blockquote>对导致新冠肺炎病的冠状病毒奥密克戎变种传播的担忧是没有根据的，因为疫苗和药物可以治疗它吗？人们是不是太累了，以至于没有考虑封锁和行动限制的影响？通胀是否已经见顶，或者是否已经反映在股票和债券中？谁知道呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Jeremy Siegel, a noted professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, told CNBC on Thursday that he envisioned the Fed raising rates around eight times from its current range of between 0% and 0.25% for benchmark rates.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院著名金融学教授杰里米·西格尔(Jeremy Siegel)周四对CNBC表示，他预计美联储将在目前基准利率0%至0.25%的基础上加息约八次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Believe it or not, we have to get to 2% on fed funds,\" Siegel speculated in conversation with the business news channel. The Wharton professor still saw the possibility of stocks booking low double-digit gains, even if the Fed needs to be more aggressive.</p><p><blockquote>“信不信由你，我们必须将联邦基金的利率提高到2%，”西格尔在与商业新闻频道的对话中推测道。这位沃顿商学院教授仍然认为股市有可能出现两位数的低涨幅，即使美联储需要更加激进。</blockquote></p><p> \"Stocks are still the place to be,\" Siegel said. He said that a rotation in value is what he's betting will play out in 2022 as investors position for higher borrowing costs against a backdrop of richly priced large-cap and growth-oriented investments.</p><p><blockquote>“股票仍然是值得去的地方，”西格尔说。他表示，他押注2022年将出现价值轮动，因为投资者在价格昂贵的大盘股和成长型投资的背景下准备提高借贷成本。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market hasn't been this stomach-churning in December since 2018. Here's the set-up for the year's final week.<blockquote>自2018年以来，12月股市从未如此令人反胃。这是今年最后一周的安排。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market hasn't been this stomach-churning in December since 2018. Here's the set-up for the year's final week.<blockquote>自2018年以来，12月股市从未如此令人反胃。这是今年最后一周的安排。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 14:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What started out as a lump of coal turned into a gift for bullish investors: a record for the S&P 500 index to end the week before the Christmas holiday.</p><p><blockquote>最初的一块煤变成了给看涨投资者的礼物：标普500指数在圣诞节假期前一周收盘创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> But if you've got this market figured out, you're among the few.</p><p><blockquote>但是如果你已经了解了这个市场，你就是少数几个之一。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the scene on Wall Street may have felt to many investors much like how former UFC champion Tyron Woodley's week ended last Saturday in his contest against the YouTube-star-turned-prizefighter Jake Paul:</p><p><blockquote>周一，华尔街的场景可能对许多投资者来说很像前UFC冠军泰伦·伍德利(Tyron Woodley)上周六结束的一周，他与YouTube明星出身的职业拳击手杰克·保罗(Jake Paul)的比赛：</blockquote></p><p> In Wall Street's case, the omicron variant of the coronavirus, and a host of other worries, including looming monetary-policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, subbed in for Paul's devastating sixth-round overhand blow, leveling the Dow Jones Industrial Average , the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 in a bruising session last Monday to start the holiday-abbreviated week. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote>就华尔街而言，冠状病毒的omicron变种以及包括美联储即将收紧货币政策在内的一系列其他担忧取代了Paul毁灭性的第六轮上手打击，拖累了道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数和标普500上周一在假期缩短的一周开始时表现强劲。美国市场周五因圣诞节休市。</blockquote></p><p> However, this is how some investors may feel the week ended, with spectacular aplomb shown by a stock market that had so recently seemed destined to be chopped down to size in the final few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这就是一些投资者在本周结束时的感受，股市表现出惊人的沉着，而最近似乎注定要在2021年最后几周缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the S&P 500 index booked its 68th record close of 2021, finishing the week up 3.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average booked a 4.4% gain and the Nasdaq Composite registered a more quotidian 0.7% gain after sinking more than halfway toward correction level at its lowest point during the volatile trading stretch.</p><p><blockquote>周四，标普500指数创下2021年第68次收盘纪录，本周上涨3.6%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨4.4%，纳斯达克综合指数在下跌一半以上后，每日上涨0.7%。在波动的交易时段，修正水平处于最低点。</blockquote></p><p> Data analysts at Dow Jones observed that the capping of Monday's fall by an end-of-the-week record for S&P 500 also occurred on July 19 when the index fell 1.9% only to end the week at a record high.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯的数据分析师观察到，标普500周一的跌幅也出现在7月19日，当时该指数下跌1.9%，但本周结束时创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> More broadly, the volatility this December so far has been stomach-churning. It's been the choppiest since 2018, the last time interest-rate increases were on the table at the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>更广泛地说，今年12月迄今为止的波动性令人反胃。这是自2018年美联储上次讨论加息以来最不稳定的一次。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed124ff95743264ac45c75737c965a2\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Dow Jones Market Data</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And the so-called Santa Claus rally, a seasonally bullish period in the last five trading sessions of a year and the first two in the new year, is yet to commence. That's if Santa deigns to dole out any additional gifts at all after the scintillation of the past three sessions.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的圣诞老人反弹，即一年最后五个交易日和新年前两个交易日的季节性牛市，尚未开始。如果圣诞老人在过去三次会议的闪烁之后屈尊分发任何额外的礼物。</blockquote></p><p> The analysts at Leuthold Group write that, since 1972, the Santa Claus rally has produced an S&P 500 average gain of 1.26%, which is \"60 basis points below the average for Santa Claus rallies from 1928 to 1972.\"</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group的分析师写道，自1972年以来，圣诞老人集会使标普500的平均涨幅为1.26%，“比1928年至1972年圣诞老人集会的平均涨幅低60个基点”。</blockquote></p><p> Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, confirmed that there is an overwhelming tendency for the market to rally during that period, though it isn't clear what to attribute the bullish uptrend to, other than Old St. Nick himself.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)证实，在此期间市场有压倒性的反弹趋势，尽管目前尚不清楚除了老圣尼克本人之外，看涨上升趋势的原因是什么。</blockquote></p><p> But we didn't come here to marvel at the Santa Claus rally but rather the indefatigability of this market.</p><p><blockquote>但我们来这里并不是为了惊叹圣诞老人的集会，而是为了惊叹这个市场的不知疲倦。</blockquote></p><p> Nothing has changed about the market dynamic besides investors' ability to fade negative headlines, including those centered on omicron and the outlook for inflation in years to come. On Thursday, data showed that the 12-month increase in the U.S. PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, had jumped to 5.7% in November from 5% in the prior month. That's the highest rate since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>除了投资者能够淡化负面头条新闻（包括以奥密克戎和未来几年通胀前景为中心的新闻）之外，市场动态没有任何变化。周四，数据显示，美联储首选的通胀指标美国PCE指数12个月涨幅已从上月的5%跃升至11月的5.7%。这是自1982年以来的最高比率。</blockquote></p><p> Wolf Richter of the popular financial blog Wolf Street sounded as befuddled as many have been about policy from the Federal Reserve in a recent column.</p><p><blockquote>流行金融博客Wolf Street的Wolf Richter在最近的一篇专栏文章中听起来和许多人一样对美联储的政策感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is shooting higher even as this Fed is still repressing short-term interest rates to near 0% and is still printing money hand over fist, though less than it did two months ago. And the Fed has finally backed off its ridiculous claims that this inflation, caused by enormous historic amounts of money printing and interest rate repression, is just temporary and due to bottlenecks and supply chains. </p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储仍将短期利率压制在接近0%的水平，并且仍在大量印钞，但通胀仍在飙升，尽管比两个月前有所减少。美联储终于放弃了其荒谬的说法，即这种由历史上巨额印钞和利率抑制引起的通胀只是暂时的，是由瓶颈和供应链造成的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57072949565e1587bb225d8f96f16c9c\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"533\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via WolfStreet.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过WolfStreet.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Fed announced in mid-December that it is cutting back on its bond buying at a faster clip, and projections from members of the central bank's policy-setting panel of late point to three interest-rate increases in 2022. That move was meant to deflate some of the market's bullishness, but investors continue to read the Fed's hawkish policy pivot as dovish.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在12月中旬宣布将以更快的速度削减债券购买，央行政策制定小组成员最近预测2022年将加息三次。此举旨在抑制市场的部分看涨情绪，但投资者继续将美联储的鹰派政策转向解读为鸽派。</blockquote></p><p> Are fears about the spread of the omicron variant of the coronavirus causing the disease COVID-19 unwarranted because vaccines and remedies can handle it? Are people just too fatigued to consider the impact of lockdowns and mobility restrictions? Has inflation peaked, or is it already priced into stocks and bonds? Who knows?</p><p><blockquote>对导致新冠肺炎病的冠状病毒奥密克戎变种传播的担忧是没有根据的，因为疫苗和药物可以治疗它吗？人们是不是太累了，以至于没有考虑封锁和行动限制的影响？通胀是否已经见顶，或者是否已经反映在股票和债券中？谁知道呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Jeremy Siegel, a noted professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, told CNBC on Thursday that he envisioned the Fed raising rates around eight times from its current range of between 0% and 0.25% for benchmark rates.</p><p><blockquote>宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院著名金融学教授杰里米·西格尔(Jeremy Siegel)周四对CNBC表示，他预计美联储将在目前基准利率0%至0.25%的基础上加息约八次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Believe it or not, we have to get to 2% on fed funds,\" Siegel speculated in conversation with the business news channel. The Wharton professor still saw the possibility of stocks booking low double-digit gains, even if the Fed needs to be more aggressive.</p><p><blockquote>“信不信由你，我们必须将联邦基金的利率提高到2%，”西格尔在与商业新闻频道的对话中推测道。这位沃顿商学院教授仍然认为股市有可能出现两位数的低涨幅，即使美联储需要更加激进。</blockquote></p><p> \"Stocks are still the place to be,\" Siegel said. He said that a rotation in value is what he's betting will play out in 2022 as investors position for higher borrowing costs against a backdrop of richly priced large-cap and growth-oriented investments.</p><p><blockquote>“股票仍然是值得去的地方，”西格尔说。他表示，他押注2022年将出现价值轮动，因为投资者在价格昂贵的大盘股和成长型投资的背景下准备提高借贷成本。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-stomach-churning-in-december-since-2018-heres-the-set-up-for-the-years-final-week-11640351848?mod=hp_LATEST&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D03250748340802259633376614514522268876%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1640587337\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-hasnt-been-this-stomach-churning-in-december-since-2018-heres-the-set-up-for-the-years-final-week-11640351848?mod=hp_LATEST&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D03250748340802259633376614514522268876%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1640587337","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2193330173","content_text":"What started out as a lump of coal turned into a gift for bullish investors: a record for the S&P 500 index to end the week before the Christmas holiday.\nBut if you've got this market figured out, you're among the few.\nOn Monday, the scene on Wall Street may have felt to many investors much like how former UFC champion Tyron Woodley's week ended last Saturday in his contest against the YouTube-star-turned-prizefighter Jake Paul:\nIn Wall Street's case, the omicron variant of the coronavirus, and a host of other worries, including looming monetary-policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, subbed in for Paul's devastating sixth-round overhand blow, leveling the Dow Jones Industrial Average , the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 in a bruising session last Monday to start the holiday-abbreviated week. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of Christmas.\nHowever, this is how some investors may feel the week ended, with spectacular aplomb shown by a stock market that had so recently seemed destined to be chopped down to size in the final few weeks of 2021.\nOn Thursday, the S&P 500 index booked its 68th record close of 2021, finishing the week up 3.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average booked a 4.4% gain and the Nasdaq Composite registered a more quotidian 0.7% gain after sinking more than halfway toward correction level at its lowest point during the volatile trading stretch.\nData analysts at Dow Jones observed that the capping of Monday's fall by an end-of-the-week record for S&P 500 also occurred on July 19 when the index fell 1.9% only to end the week at a record high.\nMore broadly, the volatility this December so far has been stomach-churning. It's been the choppiest since 2018, the last time interest-rate increases were on the table at the Federal Reserve.\nDow Jones Market Data\nAnd the so-called Santa Claus rally, a seasonally bullish period in the last five trading sessions of a year and the first two in the new year, is yet to commence. That's if Santa deigns to dole out any additional gifts at all after the scintillation of the past three sessions.\nThe analysts at Leuthold Group write that, since 1972, the Santa Claus rally has produced an S&P 500 average gain of 1.26%, which is \"60 basis points below the average for Santa Claus rallies from 1928 to 1972.\"\nRyan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, confirmed that there is an overwhelming tendency for the market to rally during that period, though it isn't clear what to attribute the bullish uptrend to, other than Old St. Nick himself.\nBut we didn't come here to marvel at the Santa Claus rally but rather the indefatigability of this market.\nNothing has changed about the market dynamic besides investors' ability to fade negative headlines, including those centered on omicron and the outlook for inflation in years to come. On Thursday, data showed that the 12-month increase in the U.S. PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, had jumped to 5.7% in November from 5% in the prior month. That's the highest rate since 1982.\nWolf Richter of the popular financial blog Wolf Street sounded as befuddled as many have been about policy from the Federal Reserve in a recent column.\n\n\n Inflation is shooting higher even as this Fed is still repressing short-term interest rates to near 0% and is still printing money hand over fist, though less than it did two months ago. And the Fed has finally backed off its ridiculous claims that this inflation, caused by enormous historic amounts of money printing and interest rate repression, is just temporary and due to bottlenecks and supply chains.\n\n\nvia WolfStreet.com\nThe Fed announced in mid-December that it is cutting back on its bond buying at a faster clip, and projections from members of the central bank's policy-setting panel of late point to three interest-rate increases in 2022. That move was meant to deflate some of the market's bullishness, but investors continue to read the Fed's hawkish policy pivot as dovish.\nAre fears about the spread of the omicron variant of the coronavirus causing the disease COVID-19 unwarranted because vaccines and remedies can handle it? Are people just too fatigued to consider the impact of lockdowns and mobility restrictions? Has inflation peaked, or is it already priced into stocks and bonds? Who knows?\nJeremy Siegel, a noted professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, told CNBC on Thursday that he envisioned the Fed raising rates around eight times from its current range of between 0% and 0.25% for benchmark rates.\n\"Believe it or not, we have to get to 2% on fed funds,\" Siegel speculated in conversation with the business news channel. The Wharton professor still saw the possibility of stocks booking low double-digit gains, even if the Fed needs to be more aggressive.\n\"Stocks are still the place to be,\" Siegel said. He said that a rotation in value is what he's betting will play out in 2022 as investors position for higher borrowing costs against a backdrop of richly priced large-cap and growth-oriented investments.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2294,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696034401"}
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