Tiramisu2020
2022-01-17
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Moderna: High Upside Potential At Current Prices<blockquote>Moderna：当前价格上涨潜力巨大</blockquote>
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One of the most promising potential solutions for helping prevent or cure some of the most intractable diseases known to man is mRNA technology and Moderna has not only developed the most advanced mRNA platform but has also built out significant mRNA manufacturing capacity worldwide. There are many companies that are in various stages of developing mRNA technology but there are very few that have advanced as far as Moderna has in both developing mRNA technology, as well as having the manufacturing capacity and other commercial infrastructure to produce billions of doses of a vaccine per year. At this time, the only companies that have both the knowledge of advanced mRNA techniques and the manufacturing capacity to compete in the same arena as Moderna is the BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) - Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) partnership.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna（纳斯达克：MRNA）作为开发世界上最先进的mRNA平台的先行者，具有极高的优势。mRNA技术是帮助预防或治愈人类已知的一些最棘手疾病的最有前途的潜在解决方案之一，Moderna不仅开发了最先进的mRNA平台，还在全球范围内建立了重要的mRNA制造能力。有许多公司处于开发mRNA技术的不同阶段，但很少有公司像Moderna那样在开发mRNA技术以及拥有生产数十亿剂疫苗的制造能力和其他商业基础设施方面取得了进步。每年的疫苗。目前，唯一同时拥有先进mRNA技术知识和制造能力与Moderna在同一舞台上竞争的公司是BioNTech（纳斯达克股票代码：BNTX）-辉瑞（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PFE）合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p>Moderna has a significant first mover competitive advantage by not only developing the COVID-19 vaccine but also by scaling the company's mRNA manufacturing capacity. It is one thing to produce mRNA in a lab setting but quite another to safely mass produce effective vaccines in regulator approved manufacturing sites around the world. Moderna's first mover advantage has translated into a very large war chest of cash from COVID-19 sales in which the company can use to further its lead by investing in advancing mRNA technology, improving mRNA manufacturing processes, and building out significant manufacturing capability worldwide. Moderna is also well along in developing one of the deepest drug pipelines in the world.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna不仅开发了COVID-19疫苗，还扩大了公司的mRNA生产能力，从而拥有显着的先发竞争优势。在实验室环境中生产mRNA是一回事，但在世界各地监管机构批准的生产基地安全地大规模生产有效的疫苗则完全是另一回事。Moderna的先发优势已转化为来自COVID-19销售的巨额现金，该公司可以通过投资推进mRNA技术、改进mRNA制造工艺以及在全球范围内建立强大的制造能力来进一步保持领先地位。Moderna在开发世界上最深的药物管道之一方面也进展顺利。</blockquote></p><p>While a first mover advantage is not exactly a moat, for the next several years at least, Moderna should enjoy a significant lead in developing many different mRNA-based therapies or vaccines to treat numerous difficult to treat diseases. Moderna currently has 40 different drug development programs, which is almost unheard of for such a relatively young biotech company that only two years ago was simply a research outfit. In the end, Moderna's mRNA platform and manufacturing capacity should result in significant long-term upside for investors buying into Moderna's stock today.</p><p><blockquote>虽然先发优势并不完全是护城河，但至少在未来几年内，Moderna应该在开发许多不同的基于mRNA的疗法或疫苗来治疗许多难以治疗的疾病方面享有显着的领先地位。Moderna目前拥有40个不同的药物开发项目，对于这样一家相对年轻的生物技术公司来说，这几乎是闻所未闻的，两年前它还只是一个研究机构。最终，Moderna的mRNA平台和制造能力应该会给今天购买Moderna股票的投资者带来显着的长期上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p>Advantages of mRNA Technology</p><p><blockquote>mRNA技术的优势</blockquote></p><p>The reason why Moderna was able to rapidly develop a COVID-19 solution, while at the same time continuing to build out a significant number of drug development programs is because of the nature of mRNA technology.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna之所以能够快速开发出COVID-19解决方案，同时继续建立大量药物开发项目，是因为mRNA技术的性质。</blockquote></p><p>The development and manufacturing of mRNA for use as therapeutics<i>and</i>vaccines are comparatively simple, scalable<i>and</i>extremely rapid.Source:Millapore SigmaThere are numerous advantages of a mRNA platform over traditional drug making. The major advantages of a mRNA platform that were demonstrated by the response to the COVID-19 pandemic was the ability to take the sequence of the virus and quickly move from development, to clinical trials, to approval, to mass manufacturing of a vaccine in a very rapid period of time. As Moderna and others get more experience and regulatory bodies get more comfortable with mRNA technology, I can see the day in the future where the response time of discovery of a virulent virus to clinical trials of a vaccine, to vaccine approval, to mass manufacturing of the vaccine could significantly shrink. Right now, it looks like it takes about 9 months to a year to move from virus discovery to eventually making it into people's arms. Eventually, this response time could shrink to matter of a few months.</p><p><blockquote>用作治疗剂的mRNA的开发和制造<i>和</i>疫苗相对简单、可扩展<i>和</i>速度极快。资料来源：Millapore Sigma与传统药物制造相比，mRNA平台有许多优势。对新冠肺炎疫情的反应证明了mRNA平台的主要优势，即能够获取病毒序列，并在非常短的时间内快速从开发、临床试验、批准到大规模生产疫苗。随着Moderna等人获得更多经验，监管机构对mRNA技术的使用更加舒适，我可以看到未来一天，发现一种毒力病毒对疫苗临床试验、疫苗审批、疫苗大规模生产的反应时间可能会明显缩短。现在看来，从病毒发现到最终投入人们的怀抱，大约需要9个月到一年的时间。最终，这个响应时间可能会缩短到几个月。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Omnicron was first identified as a variant around November 24, 2021. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in a CNBC interview that clinical trials for an Omnicron vaccine will start soon and a Omnicron vaccine should be available by fall. This type of rapid response to infectious diseases is unheard of before now and as time goes along, mRNA platform companies could not only become proficient in rapidly producing vaccines against specific viruses but also become proficient at producing vaccines against specific strains of a virus, in specific regions of the world. Among the reason why I think Moderna is building manufacturing capacity in different countries and regions of the world is because vaccines will eventually be less of a one size fits all countries and be more along the lines of regional manufacturing sites creating vaccines specific for the most prevalent viruses and strains of virus in that specific region.</p><p><blockquote>Omnicron在2021年11月24日左右首次被确定为变种。Moderna首席执行官Stéphane Bancel在接受CNBC采访时表示，Omnicron疫苗的临床试验将很快开始，Omnicron疫苗应该会在秋季上市。这种对传染病的快速反应在以前是闻所未闻的，随着时间的推移，mRNA平台公司不仅可以熟练快速生产针对特定病毒的疫苗，还可以熟练生产针对特定病毒株的疫苗，在世界的特定地区。我认为Moderna正在世界不同国家和地区建设生产能力的原因之一是，疫苗最终将不再是一刀切的，而是更多地沿着区域生产基地的路线，为该特定地区最流行的病毒和病毒株生产特定疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>Another potential huge advantage of a mRNA platform is flexibility. Theoretically, a mRNA manufacturing plant can be relatively rapidly switched to producing any other mRNA-based drug. It is possible that a mRNA plant that makes COVID-19 vaccines could be rapidly switched to making an Ebola vaccine, for instance. This is in contrast to the manufacturing process of many traditional drugs that require a dedicated plant to produce a drug. This could make the CapEx involved for producing multiple different types of drugs, far lower than a traditional drug manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>mRNA平台的另一个潜在的巨大优势是灵活性。理论上，mRNA制造厂可以相对快速地转向生产任何其他基于mRNA的药物。例如，生产COVID-19疫苗的mRNA工厂可能会迅速转向生产埃博拉疫苗。这与许多传统药物的制造过程形成对比，传统药物需要专门的工厂来生产药物。这可能会使生产多种不同类型药物的资本支出远低于传统药品制造商。</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted exactly how easy it is to change the vaccine simply by plugging the genetic sequence of any virus that Moderna wants to target right into its basic mRNA platform. This is not only useful for being able to attack different strains of COVID-19 but also means that Moderna has the ability of using the sequence of any virus whether that be the flu, HIV, CMV, Tuberculosis, Zika, or Rabies and quickly produce a vaccine ready for testing.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎·疫情强调了改变疫苗是多么容易，只需将Moderna想要针对的任何病毒的基因序列插入其基本mRNA平台。这不仅有助于攻击不同的新冠肺炎病毒株，还意味着Moderna有能力使用任何病毒的序列，无论是流感、艾滋病毒、巨细胞病毒、结核病、寨卡病毒还是狂犬病，并快速生产出可供测试的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p><b>COVID-19 Progress</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID-19进展</b></blockquote></p><p>COVID-19 has totally changed the fortunes of Moderna within just two years. Up until 2020, Moderna was only a little-known drug research outfit that had very little revenues but being the second company to bring a viable vaccine to protect against COVID-19 into US markets, has made Moderna very widely known worldwide and the company has built a huge brand that is on the verge of becoming a giant within the drug industry.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎在短短两年内彻底改变了Moderna的命运。直到2020年，Moderna只是一家鲜为人知的药物研究机构，收入很少，但作为第二家将针对COVID-19的可行疫苗引入美国市场的公司，Moderna在全球范围内广为人知，该公司已经建立了一个巨大的品牌，即将成为制药行业的巨头。</blockquote></p><p>There is real world evidence that up until now, Moderna has produced the most effective COVID-19 vaccine. Data from all over the world supports the very strong efficacy that was shown in phase III data in the USA. Recently, Singapore released data showing that COVID-19 deaths were lowest among Moderna takers. Singapore had 802 deaths out of which 70% were unvaccinated. Between Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines, Moderna had the least death rates:</p><p><blockquote>有现实世界的证据表明，到目前为止，Moderna已经生产出了最有效的新冠肺炎疫苗。来自世界各地的数据支持美国III期数据显示的非常强的疗效。最近，新加坡发布的数据显示，Moderna服用者中新冠肺炎死亡人数最低。新加坡有802人死亡，其中70%未接种疫苗。在Moderna、辉瑞-BioNTech、国药控股和科兴疫苗之间，Moderna的死亡率最低：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>11 deaths per 100,000: Sinovac</li><li>7.8 deaths per 100,000: Sinopharm</li><li>6.2 deaths per 100,000: Pfizer/BioNTech</li><li>1 death per 100,000: Moderna</li></ul>Over the course of 2021, Moderna shipped 807 million doses of Spikevax, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, to many different locations around the world, with around 25% of those doses going to low-income and middle-income countries. Moderna reported recently during the JPMorgan 40th Annual Healthcare Conference on January 10th, that the preliminary estimate for Spikevax product sales in 2021 is around $17.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>每10万人中有11人死亡：科兴</li><li>每10万人中有7.8人死亡：国药集团</li><li>每100,000人中有6.2人死亡：辉瑞/BioNTech</li><li>每10万人中有1人死亡：Moderna</li></ul>2021年期间，Moderna向世界各地运送了8.07亿剂Moderna的COVID-19疫苗Spikevax，其中约25%运往低收入和中等收入国家。Moderna最近在1月10日摩根大通第40届年度医疗保健会议上报告称，2021年Spikevax产品销售额的初步估计约为175亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Because of the huge demand for Moderna's vaccine worldwide, for a decent part of 2021, the company was supply constrained but that situation is beginning to turn around now. Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel attributes the reason for supply constraints as Moderna having a higher dose than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The higher dose was a big drain on manufacturing resources. Moderna has since built out additional manufacturing capacity over the course of 2021 and is now in much better shape to address COVID-19 demand. In Q4, Moderna shipped 300 million doses, which is a run rate of 1.2 billion doses. Moderna believes that they can produce two billion to three billion doses of boosters over the course of 2022, if necessary.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球对Moderna疫苗的巨大需求，在2021年的相当一部分时间里，该公司的供应受到限制，但这种情况现在开始扭转。Moderna首席执行官Stephane Bancel将供应限制的原因归因于Moderna的剂量高于辉瑞-BioNTech疫苗。较高的剂量会极大地消耗制造资源。此后，Moderna在2021年期间建立了额外的制造能力，现在能够更好地满足COVID-19的需求。第四季度，Moderna出货量为3亿剂，运行率为12亿剂。Moderna认为，如果有必要，他们可以在2022年生产20亿至30亿剂加强剂。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41315e4b985027121aaf2dfca75dc71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna Spikevax advanced purchase agreements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna Spikevax提前购买协议</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Because COVID-19 vaccine makers have lately been having to play whack-a-mole with new variants, the demand for Spikevax is still rising. As can be seen from the above graphic, from November 4th to January 10th, Moderna has gained and additional $1.5 billion in advanced purchase agreements ("APA") and $0.5 Billion in options, with those numbers being mostly heavily weighted toward the first half of the year. Moderna is still having ongoing discussions with many countries about whether additional vaccines will need to be added to address the fall moving into winter of '22. I expect that when all is said and done, Moderna could wind up signing additional APAs over the course of the year. So, it looks like 2022 might again be another banner year for Moderna.</p><p><blockquote>由于COVID-19疫苗制造商最近不得不与新变种玩打地鼠游戏，因此对Spikevax的需求仍在上升。从上图可以看出，从11月4日到1月10日，Moderna额外获得了15亿美元的预购协议（“APA”）和5亿美元的期权，这些数字大多在上半年占很大比重。年。Moderna仍在与许多国家进行讨论，讨论是否需要添加额外的疫苗来应对22年秋季进入冬季的问题。我预计，当该说的都说了，该做的都做了，Moderna可能会在今年签署更多的APA。因此，看起来2022年可能会再次成为Moderna的又一个辉煌的一年。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1246421e026d6fd58bec48546a19260\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>How COVID-19 is likely to evolve</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>COVID-19可能如何演变</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Currently, the world is in the midst of variant reinfection waves, which will likely continue throughout 2022 but by 2023 COVID-19 should become more seasonal and endemic. Morbidity waves are expected to become lower and lower over the next several years and there is a good chance that COVID-19 will be seen more like the flu is perceived today within a year or two. Post-pandemic, COVID-19 is expected to mostly only affect people aged 50-plus, health care workers, immunocompromised people and other high-risk populations. These groups will likely need boosters to ensure that they do not get severe disease and hospitalization. As COVID-19 winds down, demand for Spikevax will probably begin dropping in the 2023-to-2024-time frame. This is why some people have been predicting revenue declines for Moderna. Well, what is Moderna's post pandemic plan to replace the likely COVID-19 vaccine declining revenues?</p><p><blockquote>目前，世界正处于变异再感染浪潮中，这可能会持续到2022年，但到2023年，新冠肺炎应该会变得更加季节性和地方性。预计未来几年发病率会越来越低，一两年内，新冠肺炎很有可能会更像今天的流感。大流行后，新冠肺炎预计主要只影响50岁以上的人、医护人员、免疫功能低下的人和其他高危人群。这些群体可能需要加强剂，以确保他们不会患上严重疾病和住院。随着COVID-19的消退，对Spikevax的需求可能会在2023年至2024年期间开始下降。这就是为什么有人一直预测Moderna的收入会下降。那么，Moderna的后疫情计划是什么，以取代可能下降的新冠肺炎疫苗收入？</blockquote></p><p><b>Moderna's Plan Moving Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Moderna的计划向前推进</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9965c1224ac3e57e5a4c764bbb50975\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna Product Strategy in 2022</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna 2022年产品策略</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The initial way that Moderna plans on countering the likely COVID-19 vaccine decline is by bundling different seasonal respiratory vaccines together into just one vaccine. The days of getting COVID-19 specific vaccine seem to be waning and a pan-respiratory vaccine will likely compete extremely effectively with any laggards coming to the market late with only a COVID-19 solution.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna计划应对新冠肺炎疫苗可能下降的最初方法是将不同的季节性呼吸道疫苗捆绑在一起，形成一种疫苗。获得新冠肺炎特定疫苗的日子似乎正在过去，泛呼吸道疫苗可能会非常有效地与任何只有新冠肺炎解决方案才进入市场的落后者竞争。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4995949c9a253ebe6663e2deeb5ccce3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna vision for pan-respiratory vaccine</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna泛呼吸道疫苗愿景</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Moderna's vision is that an annual single-dose pan-respiratory booster can be customized to fit different demographics, different geographies, and different respiratory diseases over time. Eventually, Moderna even expects to target specific strains of respiratory diseases in specific regions. I wouldn't be surprised if a pan-respiratory vaccine starts to appear within two years.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna的愿景是，随着时间的推移，可以定制年度单剂量泛呼吸加强剂，以适应不同的人口统计、不同的地理位置和不同的呼吸道疾病。最终，Moderna甚至希望针对特定地区的特定呼吸道疾病毒株。如果泛呼吸道疫苗在两年内开始出现，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb027ec45a0750fdcd8b65307c4008d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna Strategy After COVID-19</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>COVID-19后的Moderna战略</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Unlike vaccine technology from companies like Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), mRNA can be used for many other different purposes besides infectious diseases.Novavax's pipeline only consists of 9 programs that target 5 other infectious diseases other than COVID-19. Most of Novavax's pipeline is mostly concerned with respiratory diseases, with only one direct contact latent virus, Ebola, appearing on the list.</p><p><blockquote>与Novavax（纳斯达克股票代码：NVAX）等公司的疫苗技术不同，mRNA可用于传染病之外的许多其他不同目的。Novavax的管道仅包括9个项目，针对除COVID-19以外的5种其他传染病。Novavax的大部分管道主要与呼吸道疾病有关，只有一种直接接触的潜伏病毒Ebola出现在名单上。</blockquote></p><p>In contrast, Moderna is much further ahead in developing solutions against multiple latent viruses that are a lot more prevalent than Ebola. The first ones being targeted and are already in clinical trials are CMV and EBV, with HIV soon to begin trials. CMV is Moderna's most advanced drug in the pipeline and the first patient has already been dosed in phase III trials. Besides CMV, EBV, and HIV, there a many other undisclosed latent viruses being worked on in the labs.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，Moderna在开发针对多种潜伏病毒的解决方案方面遥遥领先，这些病毒比埃博拉病毒流行得多。第一批被瞄准并已经进入临床试验的是巨细胞病毒和EBV，HIV很快就会开始试验。CMV是Moderna在研发中最先进的药物，第一位患者已经在III期试验中接受了给药。除了CMV、EBV和HIV，还有许多其他未公开的潜伏病毒正在实验室中研究。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The next area that Moderna is prioritizing is in developing therapeutics using mRNA technology which allows the company to produce oncology products, cardio products, rare genetic disease products and autoimmune disease products. This is an area that has significant upside for Moderna. Moderna will be using totally new approaches to develop solutions against cancer and develop solutions for diseases that currently have no significant solutions. Recently, Moderna formed a partnership with Carisma Therapeutics. Moderna plans to combine its mRNA technology with Carisma Therapeutics' engineered macrophage technology to develop solutions against solid tumor cancer. The reason why this is important is because while autologous CAR-Ts have really good data in Heme malignancies, which are blood cancers, they have not been very effective in solid tumors and eighty percent of cancer patients die of solid tumors. I won't go deep into the science behind it but scientist know the reasons why CAR-Ts are not as effective with solid tumors, and both companies think Carisma Therapeutics' CAR-Macrophage's technology combined with mRNA technology can produce revolutionary new ways to essentially cure the most prevalent and difficult to treat form of cancer deaths which are solid tumors.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna优先考虑的下一个领域是使用mRNA技术开发疗法，该技术使该公司能够生产肿瘤产品、心脏产品、罕见遗传病产品和自身免疫性疾病产品。对于Moderna来说，这是一个具有巨大优势的领域。Moderna将使用全新的方法来开发抗癌解决方案，并为目前没有重要解决方案的疾病开发解决方案。最近，Moderna与Carisma Therapeutics建立了合作伙伴关系。Moderna计划将其mRNA技术与Carisma Therapeutics的工程巨噬细胞技术相结合，开发针对实体瘤癌症的解决方案。这一点之所以重要，是因为虽然自体CAR-T在血红素恶性肿瘤（血癌）中有非常好的数据，但它们在实体瘤中并不是很有效，80%的癌症患者死于实体瘤。我不会深入探讨其背后的科学，但科学家知道CAR-T对实体瘤不那么有效的原因，两家公司都认为Carisma Therapeutics的CAR-Macrophage技术与mRNA技术相结合可以产生革命性的新方法，从根本上治愈最普遍和最难治疗的癌症死亡形式，即实体瘤。</blockquote></p><p>Moderna's deep expertise in mRNA and LNP technologies opens up a potentially game-changing opportunity for engineered macrophages. In vivo delivery directly to monocytes and macrophages enables an off-the-shelf therapeutic approach that uses the patients' own cells to provide a truly personalized treatment.Source: Steven Kelly, President and Chief Executive Officer of CarismaRight now, there is no way to factor in the upside of Moderna potentially developing a significantly better solution to attacking and possibly curing solid tumor cancer. The therapies that could come out of partnerships like the one Moderna has with Carisma could potentially produce home runs just as big, if not bigger than the COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna在mRNA和LNP技术方面的深厚专业知识为工程巨噬细胞带来了潜在的改变游戏规则的机会。体内直接递送至单核细胞和巨噬细胞实现了使用患者自身细胞提供真正个性化治疗的现成治疗方法。资料来源：Steven Kelly，CarismaRight总裁兼首席执行官现在，没有办法考虑到Moderna可能开发出一种明显更好的解决方案来攻击并可能治愈实体瘤癌症的优势。像Moderna与Carisma这样的合作伙伴关系可能产生的疗法可能会产生与COVID-19疫苗一样大的本垒打，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p>The fourth area that Moderna is developing solutions using gene-editing enzymes. Moderna has only seriously got into gene editing relatively recently when the company signed a collaboration with Metagenomi. For those unaware,gene-editing is the same strategy that companies like Editas (NASDAQ:EDIT) and CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CRSP) are pursuing. The focus for the Metagenomi collaboration will be on serious genetic diseases.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna正在开发使用基因编辑酶的解决方案的第四个领域。Moderna直到最近才认真涉足基因编辑领域，当时该公司与Metagenomi签署了合作协议。对于那些不知道的人来说，基因编辑与Editas（纳斯达克：EDIT）和CRISPR Therapeutics（纳斯达克：CRSP）等公司正在追求的策略相同。宏基因组学合作的重点将是严重的遗传疾病。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8041f6f8edad22795cbe4a3295d68973\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna capital allocation priorities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna资本配置优先事项</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Moderna has already started spending its huge cash flows derived from COVID-19 vaccine sales. I just wanted to include the above slide in this article because it shows that Moderna's number one capital allocation priority is investing in R&D, manufacturing infrastructure and continuing to build out the company's commercial infrastructure. The second priority is investing in external investment opportunities, either in the form of collaborations or M&A. The collaborations with Metagenomi and Carisma Therapeutics are examples of this second priority.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna已经开始花费其从COVID-19疫苗销售中获得的巨额现金流。我只是想将上面的幻灯片包含在本文中，因为它表明Moderna的头号资本配置优先事项是投资研发、制造基础设施并继续建设公司的商业基础设施。第二个优先事项是投资外部投资机会，无论是以合作还是并购的形式。与Metagenomi和Carisma Therapeutics的合作就是第二个优先事项的例子。</blockquote></p><p><b>Manufacturing Capacity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36484ebc09cffbacbfa8ce06eea49f22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna In-country vaccine manufacturing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna国内疫苗生产</span></p></blockquote></p><p>There is a rather large set of existing potential competitors to Moderna and there are also countries like India that are supporting rising home-grown mRNA platform companies. One of the ways that Moderna is keeping ahead of such efforts from competitors is using its $15.3 billion in cash and $3.2 billion in Free Cash Flow at the end of Q3, to build out significant mRNA manufacturing capability across the world. Moderna has announced in principle agreements with Australia and Canadato build out mRNA vaccine manufacturing plants within those countries. These announcements are in addition to the plans to build a factory capable of producing up to 500 million vaccine doses in Africa each year. I believe Moderna is still in the process of choosing which African country the manufacturing site will be located in.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna现有的潜在竞争对手相当多，也有像印度这样的国家正在支持崛起的本土mRNA平台公司。Moderna领先于竞争对手的方法之一是利用第三季度末的153亿美元现金和32亿美元自由现金流，在全球范围内建立重要的mRNA制造能力。Moderna已宣布原则上与澳大利亚和加拿大达成协议，在这些国家建立mRNA疫苗制造厂。这些公告是对在非洲建立一个每年能够生产多达5亿剂疫苗的工厂的计划的补充。我相信Moderna仍在选择生产基地将设在哪个非洲国家。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p>The major risk that Moderna faces in the short term is revenue from the COVID-19 declining faster than Moderna can get other vaccines or therapies on to market and show superior results. The closest drug to approval is a CMV vaccine. An approval of the CMV vaccine would likely shoot Moderna's stock higher because it would show that mRNA is viable for addressing other diseases. A CMV rejection would likely drop Moderna's stock much lower.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna短期内面临的主要风险是来自COVID-19的收入下降速度快于Moderna将其他疫苗或疗法推向市场并显示出卓越效果的速度。最接近批准的药物是巨细胞病毒疫苗。CMV疫苗的批准可能会推高Moderna的股价，因为它将表明mRNA对于治疗其他疾病是可行的。CMV被拒绝可能会导致Moderna的股价大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another major risk for Moderna are patent disputes and lawsuits. Moderna recently had to back down in a dispute with the NIH over COVID-19 patents and Moderna could also soon face a patent infringement lawsuit from Arbutus (NASDAQ:ABUS) over the COVID-19 vaccine. Currently, it is unknown how these disputes will impact Moderna over the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna面临的另一个主要风险是专利纠纷和诉讼。Moderna最近不得不在与NIH关于COVID-19专利的纠纷中让步，Moderna也可能很快面临Arbutus（纳斯达克：ABUS）关于COVID-19疫苗的专利侵权诉讼。目前，尚不清楚这些纠纷将如何长期影响Moderna。</blockquote></p><p><b>Analyst Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师目标价</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c0e5d79d00e415b16e4141b35eaaad4\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna Analyst Price Targets</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna分析师价格目标</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The above is based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for Moderna in the last 3 months. The average price target is $289.07 with a high forecast of $506.00 and a low forecast of $86.00. The average price target represents a 38% increase from the last price of $210.17.</p><p><blockquote>以上是基于15位华尔街分析师在过去3个月内为Moderna提供的12个月目标价。平均目标价为289.07美元，高预测为506.00美元，低预测为86.00美元。平均目标价较上次价格210.17美元上涨38%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ae061dd4c060bb37f43ff041dc2577\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff983411a9b9571f66378eddc98653c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259a902789541a798fdf388cf46d6b37\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The comparisons between these three relatively new biotechs with COVID-19 vaccines already shipping, shows Moderna is the most highly valued stock but BioNTech has the best revenue growth and operating margins. Going strictly by value, BioNTech is probably the best buy but in reality, all three companies are biotechs, in which one hit product or one large dismal failure can change the fortunes of the company. I view all three companies as very speculative, even with the success achieved by producing solutions for the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这三种相对较新的生物技术公司与已经发货的COVID-19疫苗之间的比较表明，Moderna是估值最高的股票，但BioNTech拥有最好的收入增长和营业利润率。严格按照价值计算，BioNTech可能是最好的选择，但实际上，这三家公司都是生物技术公司，一个热门产品或一次惨淡的失败就可以改变公司的命运。我认为这三家公司都非常投机，尽管它们通过为COVID-19大流行提供解决方案取得了成功。</blockquote></p><p>I am not a big fan of trying to use valuation techniques on any biotech company. There is simply no way to value the future potential success or failure of the bets that many biotech companies make. If Moderna is part of curing solid tumor cancer, for instance, Moderna's current valuation will be viewed in hindsight as being way too low. If most of Moderna's pipeline fails then the valuation will be viewed in hindsight as being way too high.</p><p><blockquote>我不太喜欢尝试对任何生物技术公司使用估值技术。根本没有办法评估许多生物技术公司所下的赌注未来潜在的成功或失败。例如，如果Moderna是治疗实体瘤癌症的一部分，那么Moderna目前的估值事后会被认为太低。如果Moderna的大部分产品线都失败了，那么事后看来，估值将被视为过高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Moderna is a high risk, high reward bet on mRNA technology succeeding in either preventing or curing many difficult to treat diseases. This is a stock that is strictly for long-term aggressive growth investors that are interested in speculating on potential home-run type products over a five-to-ten-year time frame. The risk that Moderna is only a one-product company is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine was so high, that is serves as a kind of proof of concept that a mRNA platform can produce other novel ways of addressing other difficult diseases.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna是对mRNA技术的高风险、高回报赌注，成功预防或治愈许多难以治疗的疾病。这是一只严格适合长期激进增长投资者的股票，他们有兴趣在五到十年的时间范围内投机潜在的本垒打型产品。Moderna只是一家单一产品公司的风险在一定程度上被COVID-19疫苗的功效如此之高这一事实所缓解，即mRNA平台可以产生其他新方法来解决其他疑难疾病。</blockquote></p><p>The 58% pullback from Moderna's all-time high of $497.49 gives aggressive growth investors a chance to buy into a company with significant potential upside. However, risk averse or investors sensitive to short-term price movements should avoid Moderna's stock for now because there is significant downside risk if COVID-19 revenue drops off too rapidly before Moderna can show that it can achieve similar success in addressing other diseases.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna较497.49美元的历史高点回调58%，为激进的增长投资者提供了买入一家具有巨大潜在上涨空间的公司的机会。然而，规避风险或对短期价格变动敏感的投资者目前应避开Moderna的股票，因为如果在Moderna证明它可以在解决其他疾病方面取得类似成功之前，COVID-19收入下降过快，则存在巨大的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna: High Upside Potential At Current Prices<blockquote>Moderna：当前价格上涨潜力巨大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna: High Upside Potential At Current Prices<blockquote>Moderna：当前价格上涨潜力巨大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-17 17:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Moderna has a significant first mover competitive advantage by not only developing the COVID-19 vaccine but also by scaling the company's mRNA manufacturing capacity.</li><li>Moderna recently reported the preliminary COVID-19 estimate for product sales in 2021 as being approximately $17.5 billion.</li><li>Recently, Singapore released data showing that COVID-19 deaths were the lowest among Moderna vaccine takers.</li><li>One of the ways that Moderna is keeping ahead of potential mRNA competition is using its $15.3 billion in cash and $3.2 billion in Free Cash Flow to continue building out significant mRNA manufacturing capability across the world.</li><li>The 58% pullback from Moderna's all-time high of $497.49 gives aggressive growth investors a chance to buy into a company with significant upside potential.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466434ab0d3291095a83741482c15948\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Maddie Meyer/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Moderna不仅开发了COVID-19疫苗，还扩大了公司的mRNA生产能力，从而拥有显着的先发竞争优势。</li><li>Moderna最近报告了COVID-19对2021年产品销售额的初步估计约为175亿美元。</li><li>近日，新加坡发布数据显示，Moderna疫苗接种者中新冠肺炎死亡人数最低。</li><li>Moderna在潜在的mRNA竞争中保持领先地位的方法之一是利用其153亿美元的现金和32亿美元的自由现金流继续在全球范围内建立重要的mRNA制造能力。</li><li>Moderna较497.49美元的历史高点回调58%，为激进的增长投资者提供了买入一家具有巨大上涨潜力的公司的机会。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>麦迪·迈耶/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) has extremely high upside from being a first mover in developing the world's most advanced mRNA platform. One of the most promising potential solutions for helping prevent or cure some of the most intractable diseases known to man is mRNA technology and Moderna has not only developed the most advanced mRNA platform but has also built out significant mRNA manufacturing capacity worldwide. There are many companies that are in various stages of developing mRNA technology but there are very few that have advanced as far as Moderna has in both developing mRNA technology, as well as having the manufacturing capacity and other commercial infrastructure to produce billions of doses of a vaccine per year. At this time, the only companies that have both the knowledge of advanced mRNA techniques and the manufacturing capacity to compete in the same arena as Moderna is the BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) - Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) partnership.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna（纳斯达克：MRNA）作为开发世界上最先进的mRNA平台的先行者，具有极高的优势。mRNA技术是帮助预防或治愈人类已知的一些最棘手疾病的最有前途的潜在解决方案之一，Moderna不仅开发了最先进的mRNA平台，还在全球范围内建立了重要的mRNA制造能力。有许多公司处于开发mRNA技术的不同阶段，但很少有公司像Moderna那样在开发mRNA技术以及拥有生产数十亿剂疫苗的制造能力和其他商业基础设施方面取得了进步。每年的疫苗。目前，唯一同时拥有先进mRNA技术知识和制造能力与Moderna在同一舞台上竞争的公司是BioNTech（纳斯达克股票代码：BNTX）-辉瑞（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PFE）合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p>Moderna has a significant first mover competitive advantage by not only developing the COVID-19 vaccine but also by scaling the company's mRNA manufacturing capacity. It is one thing to produce mRNA in a lab setting but quite another to safely mass produce effective vaccines in regulator approved manufacturing sites around the world. Moderna's first mover advantage has translated into a very large war chest of cash from COVID-19 sales in which the company can use to further its lead by investing in advancing mRNA technology, improving mRNA manufacturing processes, and building out significant manufacturing capability worldwide. Moderna is also well along in developing one of the deepest drug pipelines in the world.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna不仅开发了COVID-19疫苗，还扩大了公司的mRNA生产能力，从而拥有显着的先发竞争优势。在实验室环境中生产mRNA是一回事，但在世界各地监管机构批准的生产基地安全地大规模生产有效的疫苗则完全是另一回事。Moderna的先发优势已转化为来自COVID-19销售的巨额现金，该公司可以通过投资推进mRNA技术、改进mRNA制造工艺以及在全球范围内建立强大的制造能力来进一步保持领先地位。Moderna在开发世界上最深的药物管道之一方面也进展顺利。</blockquote></p><p>While a first mover advantage is not exactly a moat, for the next several years at least, Moderna should enjoy a significant lead in developing many different mRNA-based therapies or vaccines to treat numerous difficult to treat diseases. Moderna currently has 40 different drug development programs, which is almost unheard of for such a relatively young biotech company that only two years ago was simply a research outfit. In the end, Moderna's mRNA platform and manufacturing capacity should result in significant long-term upside for investors buying into Moderna's stock today.</p><p><blockquote>虽然先发优势并不完全是护城河，但至少在未来几年内，Moderna应该在开发许多不同的基于mRNA的疗法或疫苗来治疗许多难以治疗的疾病方面享有显着的领先地位。Moderna目前拥有40个不同的药物开发项目，对于这样一家相对年轻的生物技术公司来说，这几乎是闻所未闻的，两年前它还只是一个研究机构。最终，Moderna的mRNA平台和制造能力应该会给今天购买Moderna股票的投资者带来显着的长期上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p>Advantages of mRNA Technology</p><p><blockquote>mRNA技术的优势</blockquote></p><p>The reason why Moderna was able to rapidly develop a COVID-19 solution, while at the same time continuing to build out a significant number of drug development programs is because of the nature of mRNA technology.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna之所以能够快速开发出COVID-19解决方案，同时继续建立大量药物开发项目，是因为mRNA技术的性质。</blockquote></p><p>The development and manufacturing of mRNA for use as therapeutics<i>and</i>vaccines are comparatively simple, scalable<i>and</i>extremely rapid.Source:Millapore SigmaThere are numerous advantages of a mRNA platform over traditional drug making. The major advantages of a mRNA platform that were demonstrated by the response to the COVID-19 pandemic was the ability to take the sequence of the virus and quickly move from development, to clinical trials, to approval, to mass manufacturing of a vaccine in a very rapid period of time. As Moderna and others get more experience and regulatory bodies get more comfortable with mRNA technology, I can see the day in the future where the response time of discovery of a virulent virus to clinical trials of a vaccine, to vaccine approval, to mass manufacturing of the vaccine could significantly shrink. Right now, it looks like it takes about 9 months to a year to move from virus discovery to eventually making it into people's arms. Eventually, this response time could shrink to matter of a few months.</p><p><blockquote>用作治疗剂的mRNA的开发和制造<i>和</i>疫苗相对简单、可扩展<i>和</i>速度极快。资料来源：Millapore Sigma与传统药物制造相比，mRNA平台有许多优势。对新冠肺炎疫情的反应证明了mRNA平台的主要优势，即能够获取病毒序列，并在非常短的时间内快速从开发、临床试验、批准到大规模生产疫苗。随着Moderna等人获得更多经验，监管机构对mRNA技术的使用更加舒适，我可以看到未来一天，发现一种毒力病毒对疫苗临床试验、疫苗审批、疫苗大规模生产的反应时间可能会明显缩短。现在看来，从病毒发现到最终投入人们的怀抱，大约需要9个月到一年的时间。最终，这个响应时间可能会缩短到几个月。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Omnicron was first identified as a variant around November 24, 2021. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in a CNBC interview that clinical trials for an Omnicron vaccine will start soon and a Omnicron vaccine should be available by fall. This type of rapid response to infectious diseases is unheard of before now and as time goes along, mRNA platform companies could not only become proficient in rapidly producing vaccines against specific viruses but also become proficient at producing vaccines against specific strains of a virus, in specific regions of the world. Among the reason why I think Moderna is building manufacturing capacity in different countries and regions of the world is because vaccines will eventually be less of a one size fits all countries and be more along the lines of regional manufacturing sites creating vaccines specific for the most prevalent viruses and strains of virus in that specific region.</p><p><blockquote>Omnicron在2021年11月24日左右首次被确定为变种。Moderna首席执行官Stéphane Bancel在接受CNBC采访时表示，Omnicron疫苗的临床试验将很快开始，Omnicron疫苗应该会在秋季上市。这种对传染病的快速反应在以前是闻所未闻的，随着时间的推移，mRNA平台公司不仅可以熟练快速生产针对特定病毒的疫苗，还可以熟练生产针对特定病毒株的疫苗，在世界的特定地区。我认为Moderna正在世界不同国家和地区建设生产能力的原因之一是，疫苗最终将不再是一刀切的，而是更多地沿着区域生产基地的路线，为该特定地区最流行的病毒和病毒株生产特定疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>Another potential huge advantage of a mRNA platform is flexibility. Theoretically, a mRNA manufacturing plant can be relatively rapidly switched to producing any other mRNA-based drug. It is possible that a mRNA plant that makes COVID-19 vaccines could be rapidly switched to making an Ebola vaccine, for instance. This is in contrast to the manufacturing process of many traditional drugs that require a dedicated plant to produce a drug. This could make the CapEx involved for producing multiple different types of drugs, far lower than a traditional drug manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>mRNA平台的另一个潜在的巨大优势是灵活性。理论上，mRNA制造厂可以相对快速地转向生产任何其他基于mRNA的药物。例如，生产COVID-19疫苗的mRNA工厂可能会迅速转向生产埃博拉疫苗。这与许多传统药物的制造过程形成对比，传统药物需要专门的工厂来生产药物。这可能会使生产多种不同类型药物的资本支出远低于传统药品制造商。</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted exactly how easy it is to change the vaccine simply by plugging the genetic sequence of any virus that Moderna wants to target right into its basic mRNA platform. This is not only useful for being able to attack different strains of COVID-19 but also means that Moderna has the ability of using the sequence of any virus whether that be the flu, HIV, CMV, Tuberculosis, Zika, or Rabies and quickly produce a vaccine ready for testing.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎·疫情强调了改变疫苗是多么容易，只需将Moderna想要针对的任何病毒的基因序列插入其基本mRNA平台。这不仅有助于攻击不同的新冠肺炎病毒株，还意味着Moderna有能力使用任何病毒的序列，无论是流感、艾滋病毒、巨细胞病毒、结核病、寨卡病毒还是狂犬病，并快速生产出可供测试的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p><b>COVID-19 Progress</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID-19进展</b></blockquote></p><p>COVID-19 has totally changed the fortunes of Moderna within just two years. Up until 2020, Moderna was only a little-known drug research outfit that had very little revenues but being the second company to bring a viable vaccine to protect against COVID-19 into US markets, has made Moderna very widely known worldwide and the company has built a huge brand that is on the verge of becoming a giant within the drug industry.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎在短短两年内彻底改变了Moderna的命运。直到2020年，Moderna只是一家鲜为人知的药物研究机构，收入很少，但作为第二家将针对COVID-19的可行疫苗引入美国市场的公司，Moderna在全球范围内广为人知，该公司已经建立了一个巨大的品牌，即将成为制药行业的巨头。</blockquote></p><p>There is real world evidence that up until now, Moderna has produced the most effective COVID-19 vaccine. Data from all over the world supports the very strong efficacy that was shown in phase III data in the USA. Recently, Singapore released data showing that COVID-19 deaths were lowest among Moderna takers. Singapore had 802 deaths out of which 70% were unvaccinated. Between Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines, Moderna had the least death rates:</p><p><blockquote>有现实世界的证据表明，到目前为止，Moderna已经生产出了最有效的新冠肺炎疫苗。来自世界各地的数据支持美国III期数据显示的非常强的疗效。最近，新加坡发布的数据显示，Moderna服用者中新冠肺炎死亡人数最低。新加坡有802人死亡，其中70%未接种疫苗。在Moderna、辉瑞-BioNTech、国药控股和科兴疫苗之间，Moderna的死亡率最低：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>11 deaths per 100,000: Sinovac</li><li>7.8 deaths per 100,000: Sinopharm</li><li>6.2 deaths per 100,000: Pfizer/BioNTech</li><li>1 death per 100,000: Moderna</li></ul>Over the course of 2021, Moderna shipped 807 million doses of Spikevax, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, to many different locations around the world, with around 25% of those doses going to low-income and middle-income countries. Moderna reported recently during the JPMorgan 40th Annual Healthcare Conference on January 10th, that the preliminary estimate for Spikevax product sales in 2021 is around $17.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>每10万人中有11人死亡：科兴</li><li>每10万人中有7.8人死亡：国药集团</li><li>每100,000人中有6.2人死亡：辉瑞/BioNTech</li><li>每10万人中有1人死亡：Moderna</li></ul>2021年期间，Moderna向世界各地运送了8.07亿剂Moderna的COVID-19疫苗Spikevax，其中约25%运往低收入和中等收入国家。Moderna最近在1月10日摩根大通第40届年度医疗保健会议上报告称，2021年Spikevax产品销售额的初步估计约为175亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Because of the huge demand for Moderna's vaccine worldwide, for a decent part of 2021, the company was supply constrained but that situation is beginning to turn around now. Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel attributes the reason for supply constraints as Moderna having a higher dose than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The higher dose was a big drain on manufacturing resources. Moderna has since built out additional manufacturing capacity over the course of 2021 and is now in much better shape to address COVID-19 demand. In Q4, Moderna shipped 300 million doses, which is a run rate of 1.2 billion doses. Moderna believes that they can produce two billion to three billion doses of boosters over the course of 2022, if necessary.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球对Moderna疫苗的巨大需求，在2021年的相当一部分时间里，该公司的供应受到限制，但这种情况现在开始扭转。Moderna首席执行官Stephane Bancel将供应限制的原因归因于Moderna的剂量高于辉瑞-BioNTech疫苗。较高的剂量会极大地消耗制造资源。此后，Moderna在2021年期间建立了额外的制造能力，现在能够更好地满足COVID-19的需求。第四季度，Moderna出货量为3亿剂，运行率为12亿剂。Moderna认为，如果有必要，他们可以在2022年生产20亿至30亿剂加强剂。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41315e4b985027121aaf2dfca75dc71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna Spikevax advanced purchase agreements</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna Spikevax提前购买协议</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Because COVID-19 vaccine makers have lately been having to play whack-a-mole with new variants, the demand for Spikevax is still rising. As can be seen from the above graphic, from November 4th to January 10th, Moderna has gained and additional $1.5 billion in advanced purchase agreements ("APA") and $0.5 Billion in options, with those numbers being mostly heavily weighted toward the first half of the year. Moderna is still having ongoing discussions with many countries about whether additional vaccines will need to be added to address the fall moving into winter of '22. I expect that when all is said and done, Moderna could wind up signing additional APAs over the course of the year. So, it looks like 2022 might again be another banner year for Moderna.</p><p><blockquote>由于COVID-19疫苗制造商最近不得不与新变种玩打地鼠游戏，因此对Spikevax的需求仍在上升。从上图可以看出，从11月4日到1月10日，Moderna额外获得了15亿美元的预购协议（“APA”）和5亿美元的期权，这些数字大多在上半年占很大比重。年。Moderna仍在与许多国家进行讨论，讨论是否需要添加额外的疫苗来应对22年秋季进入冬季的问题。我预计，当该说的都说了，该做的都做了，Moderna可能会在今年签署更多的APA。因此，看起来2022年可能会再次成为Moderna的又一个辉煌的一年。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1246421e026d6fd58bec48546a19260\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>How COVID-19 is likely to evolve</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>COVID-19可能如何演变</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Currently, the world is in the midst of variant reinfection waves, which will likely continue throughout 2022 but by 2023 COVID-19 should become more seasonal and endemic. Morbidity waves are expected to become lower and lower over the next several years and there is a good chance that COVID-19 will be seen more like the flu is perceived today within a year or two. Post-pandemic, COVID-19 is expected to mostly only affect people aged 50-plus, health care workers, immunocompromised people and other high-risk populations. These groups will likely need boosters to ensure that they do not get severe disease and hospitalization. As COVID-19 winds down, demand for Spikevax will probably begin dropping in the 2023-to-2024-time frame. This is why some people have been predicting revenue declines for Moderna. Well, what is Moderna's post pandemic plan to replace the likely COVID-19 vaccine declining revenues?</p><p><blockquote>目前，世界正处于变异再感染浪潮中，这可能会持续到2022年，但到2023年，新冠肺炎应该会变得更加季节性和地方性。预计未来几年发病率会越来越低，一两年内，新冠肺炎很有可能会更像今天的流感。大流行后，新冠肺炎预计主要只影响50岁以上的人、医护人员、免疫功能低下的人和其他高危人群。这些群体可能需要加强剂，以确保他们不会患上严重疾病和住院。随着COVID-19的消退，对Spikevax的需求可能会在2023年至2024年期间开始下降。这就是为什么有人一直预测Moderna的收入会下降。那么，Moderna的后疫情计划是什么，以取代可能下降的新冠肺炎疫苗收入？</blockquote></p><p><b>Moderna's Plan Moving Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Moderna的计划向前推进</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9965c1224ac3e57e5a4c764bbb50975\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna Product Strategy in 2022</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna 2022年产品策略</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The initial way that Moderna plans on countering the likely COVID-19 vaccine decline is by bundling different seasonal respiratory vaccines together into just one vaccine. The days of getting COVID-19 specific vaccine seem to be waning and a pan-respiratory vaccine will likely compete extremely effectively with any laggards coming to the market late with only a COVID-19 solution.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna计划应对新冠肺炎疫苗可能下降的最初方法是将不同的季节性呼吸道疫苗捆绑在一起，形成一种疫苗。获得新冠肺炎特定疫苗的日子似乎正在过去，泛呼吸道疫苗可能会非常有效地与任何只有新冠肺炎解决方案才进入市场的落后者竞争。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4995949c9a253ebe6663e2deeb5ccce3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna vision for pan-respiratory vaccine</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna泛呼吸道疫苗愿景</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Moderna's vision is that an annual single-dose pan-respiratory booster can be customized to fit different demographics, different geographies, and different respiratory diseases over time. Eventually, Moderna even expects to target specific strains of respiratory diseases in specific regions. I wouldn't be surprised if a pan-respiratory vaccine starts to appear within two years.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna的愿景是，随着时间的推移，可以定制年度单剂量泛呼吸加强剂，以适应不同的人口统计、不同的地理位置和不同的呼吸道疾病。最终，Moderna甚至希望针对特定地区的特定呼吸道疾病毒株。如果泛呼吸道疫苗在两年内开始出现，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb027ec45a0750fdcd8b65307c4008d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna Strategy After COVID-19</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>COVID-19后的Moderna战略</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Unlike vaccine technology from companies like Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), mRNA can be used for many other different purposes besides infectious diseases.Novavax's pipeline only consists of 9 programs that target 5 other infectious diseases other than COVID-19. Most of Novavax's pipeline is mostly concerned with respiratory diseases, with only one direct contact latent virus, Ebola, appearing on the list.</p><p><blockquote>与Novavax（纳斯达克股票代码：NVAX）等公司的疫苗技术不同，mRNA可用于传染病之外的许多其他不同目的。Novavax的管道仅包括9个项目，针对除COVID-19以外的5种其他传染病。Novavax的大部分管道主要与呼吸道疾病有关，只有一种直接接触的潜伏病毒Ebola出现在名单上。</blockquote></p><p>In contrast, Moderna is much further ahead in developing solutions against multiple latent viruses that are a lot more prevalent than Ebola. The first ones being targeted and are already in clinical trials are CMV and EBV, with HIV soon to begin trials. CMV is Moderna's most advanced drug in the pipeline and the first patient has already been dosed in phase III trials. Besides CMV, EBV, and HIV, there a many other undisclosed latent viruses being worked on in the labs.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，Moderna在开发针对多种潜伏病毒的解决方案方面遥遥领先，这些病毒比埃博拉病毒流行得多。第一批被瞄准并已经进入临床试验的是巨细胞病毒和EBV，HIV很快就会开始试验。CMV是Moderna在研发中最先进的药物，第一位患者已经在III期试验中接受了给药。除了CMV、EBV和HIV，还有许多其他未公开的潜伏病毒正在实验室中研究。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The next area that Moderna is prioritizing is in developing therapeutics using mRNA technology which allows the company to produce oncology products, cardio products, rare genetic disease products and autoimmune disease products. This is an area that has significant upside for Moderna. Moderna will be using totally new approaches to develop solutions against cancer and develop solutions for diseases that currently have no significant solutions. Recently, Moderna formed a partnership with Carisma Therapeutics. Moderna plans to combine its mRNA technology with Carisma Therapeutics' engineered macrophage technology to develop solutions against solid tumor cancer. The reason why this is important is because while autologous CAR-Ts have really good data in Heme malignancies, which are blood cancers, they have not been very effective in solid tumors and eighty percent of cancer patients die of solid tumors. I won't go deep into the science behind it but scientist know the reasons why CAR-Ts are not as effective with solid tumors, and both companies think Carisma Therapeutics' CAR-Macrophage's technology combined with mRNA technology can produce revolutionary new ways to essentially cure the most prevalent and difficult to treat form of cancer deaths which are solid tumors.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna优先考虑的下一个领域是使用mRNA技术开发疗法，该技术使该公司能够生产肿瘤产品、心脏产品、罕见遗传病产品和自身免疫性疾病产品。对于Moderna来说，这是一个具有巨大优势的领域。Moderna将使用全新的方法来开发抗癌解决方案，并为目前没有重要解决方案的疾病开发解决方案。最近，Moderna与Carisma Therapeutics建立了合作伙伴关系。Moderna计划将其mRNA技术与Carisma Therapeutics的工程巨噬细胞技术相结合，开发针对实体瘤癌症的解决方案。这一点之所以重要，是因为虽然自体CAR-T在血红素恶性肿瘤（血癌）中有非常好的数据，但它们在实体瘤中并不是很有效，80%的癌症患者死于实体瘤。我不会深入探讨其背后的科学，但科学家知道CAR-T对实体瘤不那么有效的原因，两家公司都认为Carisma Therapeutics的CAR-Macrophage技术与mRNA技术相结合可以产生革命性的新方法，从根本上治愈最普遍和最难治疗的癌症死亡形式，即实体瘤。</blockquote></p><p>Moderna's deep expertise in mRNA and LNP technologies opens up a potentially game-changing opportunity for engineered macrophages. In vivo delivery directly to monocytes and macrophages enables an off-the-shelf therapeutic approach that uses the patients' own cells to provide a truly personalized treatment.Source: Steven Kelly, President and Chief Executive Officer of CarismaRight now, there is no way to factor in the upside of Moderna potentially developing a significantly better solution to attacking and possibly curing solid tumor cancer. The therapies that could come out of partnerships like the one Moderna has with Carisma could potentially produce home runs just as big, if not bigger than the COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna在mRNA和LNP技术方面的深厚专业知识为工程巨噬细胞带来了潜在的改变游戏规则的机会。体内直接递送至单核细胞和巨噬细胞实现了使用患者自身细胞提供真正个性化治疗的现成治疗方法。资料来源：Steven Kelly，CarismaRight总裁兼首席执行官现在，没有办法考虑到Moderna可能开发出一种明显更好的解决方案来攻击并可能治愈实体瘤癌症的优势。像Moderna与Carisma这样的合作伙伴关系可能产生的疗法可能会产生与COVID-19疫苗一样大的本垒打，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p>The fourth area that Moderna is developing solutions using gene-editing enzymes. Moderna has only seriously got into gene editing relatively recently when the company signed a collaboration with Metagenomi. For those unaware,gene-editing is the same strategy that companies like Editas (NASDAQ:EDIT) and CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CRSP) are pursuing. The focus for the Metagenomi collaboration will be on serious genetic diseases.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna正在开发使用基因编辑酶的解决方案的第四个领域。Moderna直到最近才认真涉足基因编辑领域，当时该公司与Metagenomi签署了合作协议。对于那些不知道的人来说，基因编辑与Editas（纳斯达克：EDIT）和CRISPR Therapeutics（纳斯达克：CRSP）等公司正在追求的策略相同。宏基因组学合作的重点将是严重的遗传疾病。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8041f6f8edad22795cbe4a3295d68973\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna capital allocation priorities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna资本配置优先事项</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Moderna has already started spending its huge cash flows derived from COVID-19 vaccine sales. I just wanted to include the above slide in this article because it shows that Moderna's number one capital allocation priority is investing in R&D, manufacturing infrastructure and continuing to build out the company's commercial infrastructure. The second priority is investing in external investment opportunities, either in the form of collaborations or M&A. The collaborations with Metagenomi and Carisma Therapeutics are examples of this second priority.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna已经开始花费其从COVID-19疫苗销售中获得的巨额现金流。我只是想将上面的幻灯片包含在本文中，因为它表明Moderna的头号资本配置优先事项是投资研发、制造基础设施并继续建设公司的商业基础设施。第二个优先事项是投资外部投资机会，无论是以合作还是并购的形式。与Metagenomi和Carisma Therapeutics的合作就是第二个优先事项的例子。</blockquote></p><p><b>Manufacturing Capacity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36484ebc09cffbacbfa8ce06eea49f22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna In-country vaccine manufacturing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna国内疫苗生产</span></p></blockquote></p><p>There is a rather large set of existing potential competitors to Moderna and there are also countries like India that are supporting rising home-grown mRNA platform companies. One of the ways that Moderna is keeping ahead of such efforts from competitors is using its $15.3 billion in cash and $3.2 billion in Free Cash Flow at the end of Q3, to build out significant mRNA manufacturing capability across the world. Moderna has announced in principle agreements with Australia and Canadato build out mRNA vaccine manufacturing plants within those countries. These announcements are in addition to the plans to build a factory capable of producing up to 500 million vaccine doses in Africa each year. I believe Moderna is still in the process of choosing which African country the manufacturing site will be located in.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna现有的潜在竞争对手相当多，也有像印度这样的国家正在支持崛起的本土mRNA平台公司。Moderna领先于竞争对手的方法之一是利用第三季度末的153亿美元现金和32亿美元自由现金流，在全球范围内建立重要的mRNA制造能力。Moderna已宣布原则上与澳大利亚和加拿大达成协议，在这些国家建立mRNA疫苗制造厂。这些公告是对在非洲建立一个每年能够生产多达5亿剂疫苗的工厂的计划的补充。我相信Moderna仍在选择生产基地将设在哪个非洲国家。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p>The major risk that Moderna faces in the short term is revenue from the COVID-19 declining faster than Moderna can get other vaccines or therapies on to market and show superior results. The closest drug to approval is a CMV vaccine. An approval of the CMV vaccine would likely shoot Moderna's stock higher because it would show that mRNA is viable for addressing other diseases. A CMV rejection would likely drop Moderna's stock much lower.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna短期内面临的主要风险是来自COVID-19的收入下降速度快于Moderna将其他疫苗或疗法推向市场并显示出卓越效果的速度。最接近批准的药物是巨细胞病毒疫苗。CMV疫苗的批准可能会推高Moderna的股价，因为它将表明mRNA对于治疗其他疾病是可行的。CMV被拒绝可能会导致Moderna的股价大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another major risk for Moderna are patent disputes and lawsuits. Moderna recently had to back down in a dispute with the NIH over COVID-19 patents and Moderna could also soon face a patent infringement lawsuit from Arbutus (NASDAQ:ABUS) over the COVID-19 vaccine. Currently, it is unknown how these disputes will impact Moderna over the longer term.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna面临的另一个主要风险是专利纠纷和诉讼。Moderna最近不得不在与NIH关于COVID-19专利的纠纷中让步，Moderna也可能很快面临Arbutus（纳斯达克：ABUS）关于COVID-19疫苗的专利侵权诉讼。目前，尚不清楚这些纠纷将如何长期影响Moderna。</blockquote></p><p><b>Analyst Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师目标价</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c0e5d79d00e415b16e4141b35eaaad4\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Moderna Analyst Price Targets</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Moderna分析师价格目标</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The above is based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for Moderna in the last 3 months. The average price target is $289.07 with a high forecast of $506.00 and a low forecast of $86.00. The average price target represents a 38% increase from the last price of $210.17.</p><p><blockquote>以上是基于15位华尔街分析师在过去3个月内为Moderna提供的12个月目标价。平均目标价为289.07美元，高预测为506.00美元，低预测为86.00美元。平均目标价较上次价格210.17美元上涨38%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ae061dd4c060bb37f43ff041dc2577\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff983411a9b9571f66378eddc98653c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/259a902789541a798fdf388cf46d6b37\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The comparisons between these three relatively new biotechs with COVID-19 vaccines already shipping, shows Moderna is the most highly valued stock but BioNTech has the best revenue growth and operating margins. Going strictly by value, BioNTech is probably the best buy but in reality, all three companies are biotechs, in which one hit product or one large dismal failure can change the fortunes of the company. I view all three companies as very speculative, even with the success achieved by producing solutions for the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这三种相对较新的生物技术公司与已经发货的COVID-19疫苗之间的比较表明，Moderna是估值最高的股票，但BioNTech拥有最好的收入增长和营业利润率。严格按照价值计算，BioNTech可能是最好的选择，但实际上，这三家公司都是生物技术公司，一个热门产品或一次惨淡的失败就可以改变公司的命运。我认为这三家公司都非常投机，尽管它们通过为COVID-19大流行提供解决方案取得了成功。</blockquote></p><p>I am not a big fan of trying to use valuation techniques on any biotech company. There is simply no way to value the future potential success or failure of the bets that many biotech companies make. If Moderna is part of curing solid tumor cancer, for instance, Moderna's current valuation will be viewed in hindsight as being way too low. If most of Moderna's pipeline fails then the valuation will be viewed in hindsight as being way too high.</p><p><blockquote>我不太喜欢尝试对任何生物技术公司使用估值技术。根本没有办法评估许多生物技术公司所下的赌注未来潜在的成功或失败。例如，如果Moderna是治疗实体瘤癌症的一部分，那么Moderna目前的估值事后会被认为太低。如果Moderna的大部分产品线都失败了，那么事后看来，估值将被视为过高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Moderna is a high risk, high reward bet on mRNA technology succeeding in either preventing or curing many difficult to treat diseases. This is a stock that is strictly for long-term aggressive growth investors that are interested in speculating on potential home-run type products over a five-to-ten-year time frame. The risk that Moderna is only a one-product company is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine was so high, that is serves as a kind of proof of concept that a mRNA platform can produce other novel ways of addressing other difficult diseases.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna是对mRNA技术的高风险、高回报赌注，成功预防或治愈许多难以治疗的疾病。这是一只严格适合长期激进增长投资者的股票，他们有兴趣在五到十年的时间范围内投机潜在的本垒打型产品。Moderna只是一家单一产品公司的风险在一定程度上被COVID-19疫苗的功效如此之高这一事实所缓解，即mRNA平台可以产生其他新方法来解决其他疑难疾病。</blockquote></p><p>The 58% pullback from Moderna's all-time high of $497.49 gives aggressive growth investors a chance to buy into a company with significant potential upside. However, risk averse or investors sensitive to short-term price movements should avoid Moderna's stock for now because there is significant downside risk if COVID-19 revenue drops off too rapidly before Moderna can show that it can achieve similar success in addressing other diseases.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna较497.49美元的历史高点回调58%，为激进的增长投资者提供了买入一家具有巨大潜在上涨空间的公司的机会。然而，规避风险或对短期价格变动敏感的投资者目前应避开Moderna的股票，因为如果在Moderna证明它可以在解决其他疾病方面取得类似成功之前，COVID-19收入下降过快，则存在巨大的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479930-moderna-high-upside-potential-at-current-prices\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479930-moderna-high-upside-potential-at-current-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131862461","content_text":"SummaryModerna has a significant first mover competitive advantage by not only developing the COVID-19 vaccine but also by scaling the company's mRNA manufacturing capacity.Moderna recently reported the preliminary COVID-19 estimate for product sales in 2021 as being approximately $17.5 billion.Recently, Singapore released data showing that COVID-19 deaths were the lowest among Moderna vaccine takers.One of the ways that Moderna is keeping ahead of potential mRNA competition is using its $15.3 billion in cash and $3.2 billion in Free Cash Flow to continue building out significant mRNA manufacturing capability across the world.The 58% pullback from Moderna's all-time high of $497.49 gives aggressive growth investors a chance to buy into a company with significant upside potential.Maddie Meyer/Getty Images NewsModerna (NASDAQ:MRNA) has extremely high upside from being a first mover in developing the world's most advanced mRNA platform. One of the most promising potential solutions for helping prevent or cure some of the most intractable diseases known to man is mRNA technology and Moderna has not only developed the most advanced mRNA platform but has also built out significant mRNA manufacturing capacity worldwide. There are many companies that are in various stages of developing mRNA technology but there are very few that have advanced as far as Moderna has in both developing mRNA technology, as well as having the manufacturing capacity and other commercial infrastructure to produce billions of doses of a vaccine per year. At this time, the only companies that have both the knowledge of advanced mRNA techniques and the manufacturing capacity to compete in the same arena as Moderna is the BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) - Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) partnership.Moderna has a significant first mover competitive advantage by not only developing the COVID-19 vaccine but also by scaling the company's mRNA manufacturing capacity. It is one thing to produce mRNA in a lab setting but quite another to safely mass produce effective vaccines in regulator approved manufacturing sites around the world. Moderna's first mover advantage has translated into a very large war chest of cash from COVID-19 sales in which the company can use to further its lead by investing in advancing mRNA technology, improving mRNA manufacturing processes, and building out significant manufacturing capability worldwide. Moderna is also well along in developing one of the deepest drug pipelines in the world.While a first mover advantage is not exactly a moat, for the next several years at least, Moderna should enjoy a significant lead in developing many different mRNA-based therapies or vaccines to treat numerous difficult to treat diseases. Moderna currently has 40 different drug development programs, which is almost unheard of for such a relatively young biotech company that only two years ago was simply a research outfit. In the end, Moderna's mRNA platform and manufacturing capacity should result in significant long-term upside for investors buying into Moderna's stock today.Advantages of mRNA TechnologyThe reason why Moderna was able to rapidly develop a COVID-19 solution, while at the same time continuing to build out a significant number of drug development programs is because of the nature of mRNA technology.The development and manufacturing of mRNA for use as therapeuticsandvaccines are comparatively simple, scalableandextremely rapid.Source:Millapore SigmaThere are numerous advantages of a mRNA platform over traditional drug making. The major advantages of a mRNA platform that were demonstrated by the response to the COVID-19 pandemic was the ability to take the sequence of the virus and quickly move from development, to clinical trials, to approval, to mass manufacturing of a vaccine in a very rapid period of time. As Moderna and others get more experience and regulatory bodies get more comfortable with mRNA technology, I can see the day in the future where the response time of discovery of a virulent virus to clinical trials of a vaccine, to vaccine approval, to mass manufacturing of the vaccine could significantly shrink. Right now, it looks like it takes about 9 months to a year to move from virus discovery to eventually making it into people's arms. Eventually, this response time could shrink to matter of a few months.Omnicron was first identified as a variant around November 24, 2021. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in a CNBC interview that clinical trials for an Omnicron vaccine will start soon and a Omnicron vaccine should be available by fall. This type of rapid response to infectious diseases is unheard of before now and as time goes along, mRNA platform companies could not only become proficient in rapidly producing vaccines against specific viruses but also become proficient at producing vaccines against specific strains of a virus, in specific regions of the world. Among the reason why I think Moderna is building manufacturing capacity in different countries and regions of the world is because vaccines will eventually be less of a one size fits all countries and be more along the lines of regional manufacturing sites creating vaccines specific for the most prevalent viruses and strains of virus in that specific region.Another potential huge advantage of a mRNA platform is flexibility. Theoretically, a mRNA manufacturing plant can be relatively rapidly switched to producing any other mRNA-based drug. It is possible that a mRNA plant that makes COVID-19 vaccines could be rapidly switched to making an Ebola vaccine, for instance. This is in contrast to the manufacturing process of many traditional drugs that require a dedicated plant to produce a drug. This could make the CapEx involved for producing multiple different types of drugs, far lower than a traditional drug manufacturer.The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted exactly how easy it is to change the vaccine simply by plugging the genetic sequence of any virus that Moderna wants to target right into its basic mRNA platform. This is not only useful for being able to attack different strains of COVID-19 but also means that Moderna has the ability of using the sequence of any virus whether that be the flu, HIV, CMV, Tuberculosis, Zika, or Rabies and quickly produce a vaccine ready for testing.COVID-19 ProgressCOVID-19 has totally changed the fortunes of Moderna within just two years. Up until 2020, Moderna was only a little-known drug research outfit that had very little revenues but being the second company to bring a viable vaccine to protect against COVID-19 into US markets, has made Moderna very widely known worldwide and the company has built a huge brand that is on the verge of becoming a giant within the drug industry.There is real world evidence that up until now, Moderna has produced the most effective COVID-19 vaccine. Data from all over the world supports the very strong efficacy that was shown in phase III data in the USA. Recently, Singapore released data showing that COVID-19 deaths were lowest among Moderna takers. Singapore had 802 deaths out of which 70% were unvaccinated. Between Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines, Moderna had the least death rates:11 deaths per 100,000: Sinovac7.8 deaths per 100,000: Sinopharm6.2 deaths per 100,000: Pfizer/BioNTech1 death per 100,000: ModernaOver the course of 2021, Moderna shipped 807 million doses of Spikevax, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, to many different locations around the world, with around 25% of those doses going to low-income and middle-income countries. Moderna reported recently during the JPMorgan 40th Annual Healthcare Conference on January 10th, that the preliminary estimate for Spikevax product sales in 2021 is around $17.5 billion.Because of the huge demand for Moderna's vaccine worldwide, for a decent part of 2021, the company was supply constrained but that situation is beginning to turn around now. Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel attributes the reason for supply constraints as Moderna having a higher dose than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The higher dose was a big drain on manufacturing resources. Moderna has since built out additional manufacturing capacity over the course of 2021 and is now in much better shape to address COVID-19 demand. In Q4, Moderna shipped 300 million doses, which is a run rate of 1.2 billion doses. Moderna believes that they can produce two billion to three billion doses of boosters over the course of 2022, if necessary.Moderna Spikevax advanced purchase agreementsBecause COVID-19 vaccine makers have lately been having to play whack-a-mole with new variants, the demand for Spikevax is still rising. As can be seen from the above graphic, from November 4th to January 10th, Moderna has gained and additional $1.5 billion in advanced purchase agreements (\"APA\") and $0.5 Billion in options, with those numbers being mostly heavily weighted toward the first half of the year. Moderna is still having ongoing discussions with many countries about whether additional vaccines will need to be added to address the fall moving into winter of '22. I expect that when all is said and done, Moderna could wind up signing additional APAs over the course of the year. So, it looks like 2022 might again be another banner year for Moderna.How COVID-19 is likely to evolveCurrently, the world is in the midst of variant reinfection waves, which will likely continue throughout 2022 but by 2023 COVID-19 should become more seasonal and endemic. Morbidity waves are expected to become lower and lower over the next several years and there is a good chance that COVID-19 will be seen more like the flu is perceived today within a year or two. Post-pandemic, COVID-19 is expected to mostly only affect people aged 50-plus, health care workers, immunocompromised people and other high-risk populations. These groups will likely need boosters to ensure that they do not get severe disease and hospitalization. As COVID-19 winds down, demand for Spikevax will probably begin dropping in the 2023-to-2024-time frame. This is why some people have been predicting revenue declines for Moderna. Well, what is Moderna's post pandemic plan to replace the likely COVID-19 vaccine declining revenues?Moderna's Plan Moving ForwardModerna Product Strategy in 2022The initial way that Moderna plans on countering the likely COVID-19 vaccine decline is by bundling different seasonal respiratory vaccines together into just one vaccine. The days of getting COVID-19 specific vaccine seem to be waning and a pan-respiratory vaccine will likely compete extremely effectively with any laggards coming to the market late with only a COVID-19 solution.Moderna vision for pan-respiratory vaccineModerna's vision is that an annual single-dose pan-respiratory booster can be customized to fit different demographics, different geographies, and different respiratory diseases over time. Eventually, Moderna even expects to target specific strains of respiratory diseases in specific regions. I wouldn't be surprised if a pan-respiratory vaccine starts to appear within two years.Moderna Strategy After COVID-19Unlike vaccine technology from companies like Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), mRNA can be used for many other different purposes besides infectious diseases.Novavax's pipeline only consists of 9 programs that target 5 other infectious diseases other than COVID-19. Most of Novavax's pipeline is mostly concerned with respiratory diseases, with only one direct contact latent virus, Ebola, appearing on the list.In contrast, Moderna is much further ahead in developing solutions against multiple latent viruses that are a lot more prevalent than Ebola. The first ones being targeted and are already in clinical trials are CMV and EBV, with HIV soon to begin trials. CMV is Moderna's most advanced drug in the pipeline and the first patient has already been dosed in phase III trials. Besides CMV, EBV, and HIV, there a many other undisclosed latent viruses being worked on in the labs.The next area that Moderna is prioritizing is in developing therapeutics using mRNA technology which allows the company to produce oncology products, cardio products, rare genetic disease products and autoimmune disease products. This is an area that has significant upside for Moderna. Moderna will be using totally new approaches to develop solutions against cancer and develop solutions for diseases that currently have no significant solutions. Recently, Moderna formed a partnership with Carisma Therapeutics. Moderna plans to combine its mRNA technology with Carisma Therapeutics' engineered macrophage technology to develop solutions against solid tumor cancer. The reason why this is important is because while autologous CAR-Ts have really good data in Heme malignancies, which are blood cancers, they have not been very effective in solid tumors and eighty percent of cancer patients die of solid tumors. I won't go deep into the science behind it but scientist know the reasons why CAR-Ts are not as effective with solid tumors, and both companies think Carisma Therapeutics' CAR-Macrophage's technology combined with mRNA technology can produce revolutionary new ways to essentially cure the most prevalent and difficult to treat form of cancer deaths which are solid tumors.Moderna's deep expertise in mRNA and LNP technologies opens up a potentially game-changing opportunity for engineered macrophages. In vivo delivery directly to monocytes and macrophages enables an off-the-shelf therapeutic approach that uses the patients' own cells to provide a truly personalized treatment.Source: Steven Kelly, President and Chief Executive Officer of CarismaRight now, there is no way to factor in the upside of Moderna potentially developing a significantly better solution to attacking and possibly curing solid tumor cancer. The therapies that could come out of partnerships like the one Moderna has with Carisma could potentially produce home runs just as big, if not bigger than the COVID-19 vaccine.The fourth area that Moderna is developing solutions using gene-editing enzymes. Moderna has only seriously got into gene editing relatively recently when the company signed a collaboration with Metagenomi. For those unaware,gene-editing is the same strategy that companies like Editas (NASDAQ:EDIT) and CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CRSP) are pursuing. The focus for the Metagenomi collaboration will be on serious genetic diseases.Moderna capital allocation prioritiesModerna has already started spending its huge cash flows derived from COVID-19 vaccine sales. I just wanted to include the above slide in this article because it shows that Moderna's number one capital allocation priority is investing in R&D, manufacturing infrastructure and continuing to build out the company's commercial infrastructure. The second priority is investing in external investment opportunities, either in the form of collaborations or M&A. The collaborations with Metagenomi and Carisma Therapeutics are examples of this second priority.Manufacturing CapacityModerna In-country vaccine manufacturingThere is a rather large set of existing potential competitors to Moderna and there are also countries like India that are supporting rising home-grown mRNA platform companies. One of the ways that Moderna is keeping ahead of such efforts from competitors is using its $15.3 billion in cash and $3.2 billion in Free Cash Flow at the end of Q3, to build out significant mRNA manufacturing capability across the world. Moderna has announced in principle agreements with Australia and Canadato build out mRNA vaccine manufacturing plants within those countries. These announcements are in addition to the plans to build a factory capable of producing up to 500 million vaccine doses in Africa each year. I believe Moderna is still in the process of choosing which African country the manufacturing site will be located in.RisksThe major risk that Moderna faces in the short term is revenue from the COVID-19 declining faster than Moderna can get other vaccines or therapies on to market and show superior results. The closest drug to approval is a CMV vaccine. An approval of the CMV vaccine would likely shoot Moderna's stock higher because it would show that mRNA is viable for addressing other diseases. A CMV rejection would likely drop Moderna's stock much lower.Another major risk for Moderna are patent disputes and lawsuits. Moderna recently had to back down in a dispute with the NIH over COVID-19 patents and Moderna could also soon face a patent infringement lawsuit from Arbutus (NASDAQ:ABUS) over the COVID-19 vaccine. Currently, it is unknown how these disputes will impact Moderna over the longer term.Analyst Price TargetsModerna Analyst Price TargetsThe above is based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for Moderna in the last 3 months. The average price target is $289.07 with a high forecast of $506.00 and a low forecast of $86.00. The average price target represents a 38% increase from the last price of $210.17.ValuationData by YChartsData by YChartsData by YChartsThe comparisons between these three relatively new biotechs with COVID-19 vaccines already shipping, shows Moderna is the most highly valued stock but BioNTech has the best revenue growth and operating margins. Going strictly by value, BioNTech is probably the best buy but in reality, all three companies are biotechs, in which one hit product or one large dismal failure can change the fortunes of the company. I view all three companies as very speculative, even with the success achieved by producing solutions for the COVID-19 pandemic.I am not a big fan of trying to use valuation techniques on any biotech company. There is simply no way to value the future potential success or failure of the bets that many biotech companies make. If Moderna is part of curing solid tumor cancer, for instance, Moderna's current valuation will be viewed in hindsight as being way too low. If most of Moderna's pipeline fails then the valuation will be viewed in hindsight as being way too high.ConclusionModerna is a high risk, high reward bet on mRNA technology succeeding in either preventing or curing many difficult to treat diseases. This is a stock that is strictly for long-term aggressive growth investors that are interested in speculating on potential home-run type products over a five-to-ten-year time frame. The risk that Moderna is only a one-product company is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine was so high, that is serves as a kind of proof of concept that a mRNA platform can produce other novel ways of addressing other difficult diseases.The 58% pullback from Moderna's all-time high of $497.49 gives aggressive growth investors a chance to buy into a company with significant potential upside. However, risk averse or investors sensitive to short-term price movements should avoid Moderna's stock for now because there is significant downside risk if COVID-19 revenue drops off too rapidly before Moderna can show that it can achieve similar success in addressing other diseases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/697875648"}
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