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2021-07-29
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Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote>
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I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p><p><blockquote>在又一个伟大的季度之后，我对苹果(AAPL)所取得的成就、喜爱其产品的客户数量以及所有这些所带来的财务业绩感到敬畏。我真的对这些盈利数字如此之大感到惊讶。我在这里的目标只是解释我将如何对苹果的股票进行一系列估值，然后我们可以逆向工作，找出哪些类型的假设被“烘焙”到不同的股价水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是世界上最好的生意吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>不亚于Warren Buffett的权威人士称苹果“可能是世界上最好的企业”，原因很容易理解。苹果的主要产品是iPhone（带有流行配件）、Mac电脑和iPad。</blockquote></p><p> For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我犯了一个错误，即通过将苹果的产品的功能和规格与类似价位的其他产品进行比较来分析它们。这是一个巨大的错误。相反，在这种情况下，正确的看待方式是人们对公司的感受。它的产品不仅让人快乐，而且已经成为人们身份的一部分。我通常不会在分析文章中以这种方式奉承一家公司或其产品，但这对于我想提出的下一点很重要。</blockquote></p><p> Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果的产品受到客户的高度重视，因此其产品具有很高的消费者剩余（下图中的粉色区域）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Inomics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，许多人愿意为他们从iPhones中获得的东西支付更多费用。这对苹果的业务意味着两件重要的事情。首先，随着时间的推移，他们有一定的涨价空间。其次，竞争对手很难以类似的价格提供其他令人满意的东西。这意味着苹果通过保持相对较低的价格来追求利润最大化策略（例如，你知道有多少已经拥有iPhones的人会选择不同的手机，即使他们必须额外支付100美元？）.</blockquote></p><p> And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该业务的盈利能力仍然是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利看起来不错</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果第三季度业绩极其强劲，销售额近820亿美元，净利润超过210亿美元。新闻报道谈到了同比增长，我认为苹果只是在克服“轻松的竞争”，因为一年前是新冠肺炎疫情和封锁最糟糕的时期。也就是说，我预计本季度本身将会疲软，随后的业绩不仅会出现异常低的基数，而且还会包括一些延迟购买的人，因为那些本来会提前购买的人“赶上了”。</blockquote></p><p> Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p><p><blockquote>相反，我惊讶地发现苹果在2020年第三季度也实现了增长（苹果的财年在9月底结束，所以我们在第三季度）！此电子表格显示了过去三年第三季度的收入和盈利增长情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，来自公司财报</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p><p><blockquote>因此，正如我们所看到的，苹果实际上在疫情期间通过产品销售和服务实现了收入增长。因此，如果有一个“容易竞争”的问题，它仍然存在于一个无论如何都在增长的业务中。同样可能的是，如果没有旅行或去餐馆吃饭的选择，有可支配收入的人更有可能购买苹果产品。</blockquote></p><p> This was just a great quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很棒的季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果盈利的简单模型</b></blockquote></p><p> The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p><p><blockquote>现在的工作是把这个放在上下文中。我使用苹果过去五年过去12个月的收益制作了这张图表，不仅显示了我们正在谈论的规模，还显示了增长情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p><p><blockquote>过去四个季度的净利润为860亿美元。但正如我们上面看到的，苹果将其销售分为两个部分：产品和服务。服务正在快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p><p><blockquote>苹果上一份年度报告中的这两项讲述了服务业务不断增长且利润不断增长的故事：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格10K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在第一张图表中看到的，服务收入在三年内从近400亿美元增长到近540亿美元，在第二张图表中，您可以看到它的盈利能力越来越强，毛利率随着收入的增加而增加。这在软件和媒体领域很常见；如果你的服务可以用100万客户来支付账单，而你又免费增加了一个客户，那么每增加一个就是“纯利润”。我们可以看到，这些趋势在今年前三季度只是有所增加：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果10Q表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p><p><blockquote>因此，所有这些都是在说，我不想用860亿美元的数字来评估苹果的未来，而是想对“产品”和“服务”业务进行单独的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p><p><blockquote>过去9个月，苹果的毛利率接近1180亿美元。在同一个第十季度，他们报告的运营费用为325亿美元，所得税为118亿美元。如果我们将这些产品和服务假设视为独立的业务，并在它们之间分配这些费用和税收，我会按照它们在毛利率中的份额比例来分配。因此，这325亿美元的运营费用和118亿美元的所得税中，29%用于服务，71%用于产品。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的九个月里，这意味着产品将赚取510亿美元，服务将赚取250亿美元。我意识到这个粗略的数字比苹果报告的净利润高出20亿美元，但这没关系，因为我们在这里做出了很多假设。</blockquote></p><p> In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p><p><blockquote>去年第四季度，苹果的收入仅略高于第三季度。所以要估计一整年，我只需将我九个月的数字乘以4/3。我按细分市场获得了以下全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> Products: $68 billion</p><p><blockquote>产品：680亿美元</blockquote></p><p> Services: $33 billion</p><p><blockquote>服务业：330亿美元</blockquote></p><p> To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p><p><blockquote>为了得出估值，我想提供一系列倍数，让读者找到对她来说最合理的数字：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，根据我的“信封背面”数字，我会很乐意以16倍的市盈率购买苹果的产品业务和25倍的服务，其收益率和企业价值为1,088美元+825美元=1,913美元。再加上苹果890亿美元的额外净现金，我有兴趣以20,020亿美元的市值购买股票，比最近的价格（即每股123美元）低约16%。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我开始担心，如果我们为产品业务支付超过25倍，为服务业务支付超过33倍，那么估值可能会超支。因此，以1,700美元+1,089美元+89美元=28,780亿美元或173美元的市值计算，我认为今天支付的价格太高了，无法获得良好的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p><p><blockquote>有很多因素可能会阻止苹果成为一项好的投资，但当看到这样的结果时，很难想象它们。我不会担心别人制造出更好的手机。相反，我最担心的是“未知的未知”，比如一些技术变革，这使得苹果在iPhone的客户满意度方面的优势不再那么重要。</blockquote></p><p> I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p><p><blockquote>我希望我能对苹果的股价得出更坚定的买入/卖出结论，但根据一些合理的假设，我认为它的估值相当合理。我有兴趣购买（或出售）低于120美元的看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business<blockquote>苹果：全球最大企业的大季度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 23:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li> <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li> <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li> <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>另一个伟大的季度表明高价可能是合理的。</li><li>服务业务的增长比产品更有价值。</li><li>苹果看起来是一家伟大的公司，但估值相当高。</li><li>这里不需要买，但也没有理由卖。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p><p><blockquote>在又一个伟大的季度之后，我对苹果(AAPL)所取得的成就、喜爱其产品的客户数量以及所有这些所带来的财务业绩感到敬畏。我真的对这些盈利数字如此之大感到惊讶。我在这里的目标只是解释我将如何对苹果的股票进行一系列估值，然后我们可以逆向工作，找出哪些类型的假设被“烘焙”到不同的股价水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是世界上最好的生意吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p><p><blockquote>不亚于Warren Buffett的权威人士称苹果“可能是世界上最好的企业”，原因很容易理解。苹果的主要产品是iPhone（带有流行配件）、Mac电脑和iPad。</blockquote></p><p> For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我犯了一个错误，即通过将苹果的产品的功能和规格与类似价位的其他产品进行比较来分析它们。这是一个巨大的错误。相反，在这种情况下，正确的看待方式是人们对公司的感受。它的产品不仅让人快乐，而且已经成为人们身份的一部分。我通常不会在分析文章中以这种方式奉承一家公司或其产品，但这对于我想提出的下一点很重要。</blockquote></p><p> Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果的产品受到客户的高度重视，因此其产品具有很高的消费者剩余（下图中的粉色区域）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Inomics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，许多人愿意为他们从iPhones中获得的东西支付更多费用。这对苹果的业务意味着两件重要的事情。首先，随着时间的推移，他们有一定的涨价空间。其次，竞争对手很难以类似的价格提供其他令人满意的东西。这意味着苹果通过保持相对较低的价格来追求利润最大化策略（例如，你知道有多少已经拥有iPhones的人会选择不同的手机，即使他们必须额外支付100美元？）.</blockquote></p><p> And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该业务的盈利能力仍然是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利看起来不错</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p><p><blockquote>苹果第三季度业绩极其强劲，销售额近820亿美元，净利润超过210亿美元。新闻报道谈到了同比增长，我认为苹果只是在克服“轻松的竞争”，因为一年前是新冠肺炎疫情和封锁最糟糕的时期。也就是说，我预计本季度本身将会疲软，随后的业绩不仅会出现异常低的基数，而且还会包括一些延迟购买的人，因为那些本来会提前购买的人“赶上了”。</blockquote></p><p> Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p><p><blockquote>相反，我惊讶地发现苹果在2020年第三季度也实现了增长（苹果的财年在9月底结束，所以我们在第三季度）！此电子表格显示了过去三年第三季度的收入和盈利增长情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，来自公司财报</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p><p><blockquote>因此，正如我们所看到的，苹果实际上在疫情期间通过产品销售和服务实现了收入增长。因此，如果有一个“容易竞争”的问题，它仍然存在于一个无论如何都在增长的业务中。同样可能的是，如果没有旅行或去餐馆吃饭的选择，有可支配收入的人更有可能购买苹果产品。</blockquote></p><p> This was just a great quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很棒的季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果盈利的简单模型</b></blockquote></p><p> The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p><p><blockquote>现在的工作是把这个放在上下文中。我使用苹果过去五年过去12个月的收益制作了这张图表，不仅显示了我们正在谈论的规模，还显示了增长情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Koyfin</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p><p><blockquote>过去四个季度的净利润为860亿美元。但正如我们上面看到的，苹果将其销售分为两个部分：产品和服务。服务正在快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p><p><blockquote>苹果上一份年度报告中的这两项讲述了服务业务不断增长且利润不断增长的故事：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果表格10K</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p><p><blockquote>正如您在第一张图表中看到的，服务收入在三年内从近400亿美元增长到近540亿美元，在第二张图表中，您可以看到它的盈利能力越来越强，毛利率随着收入的增加而增加。这在软件和媒体领域很常见；如果你的服务可以用100万客户来支付账单，而你又免费增加了一个客户，那么每增加一个就是“纯利润”。我们可以看到，这些趋势在今年前三季度只是有所增加：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果10Q表格</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p><p><blockquote>因此，所有这些都是在说，我不想用860亿美元的数字来评估苹果的未来，而是想对“产品”和“服务”业务进行单独的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p><p><blockquote>过去9个月，苹果的毛利率接近1180亿美元。在同一个第十季度，他们报告的运营费用为325亿美元，所得税为118亿美元。如果我们将这些产品和服务假设视为独立的业务，并在它们之间分配这些费用和税收，我会按照它们在毛利率中的份额比例来分配。因此，这325亿美元的运营费用和118亿美元的所得税中，29%用于服务，71%用于产品。</blockquote></p><p> For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的九个月里，这意味着产品将赚取510亿美元，服务将赚取250亿美元。我意识到这个粗略的数字比苹果报告的净利润高出20亿美元，但这没关系，因为我们在这里做出了很多假设。</blockquote></p><p> In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p><p><blockquote>去年第四季度，苹果的收入仅略高于第三季度。所以要估计一整年，我只需将我九个月的数字乘以4/3。我按细分市场获得了以下全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> Products: $68 billion</p><p><blockquote>产品：680亿美元</blockquote></p><p> Services: $33 billion</p><p><blockquote>服务业：330亿美元</blockquote></p><p> To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p><p><blockquote>为了得出估值，我想提供一系列倍数，让读者找到对她来说最合理的数字：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p><p><blockquote>因此，根据我的“信封背面”数字，我会很乐意以16倍的市盈率购买苹果的产品业务和25倍的服务，其收益率和企业价值为1,088美元+825美元=1,913美元。再加上苹果890亿美元的额外净现金，我有兴趣以20,020亿美元的市值购买股票，比最近的价格（即每股123美元）低约16%。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我开始担心，如果我们为产品业务支付超过25倍，为服务业务支付超过33倍，那么估值可能会超支。因此，以1,700美元+1,089美元+89美元=28,780亿美元或173美元的市值计算，我认为今天支付的价格太高了，无法获得良好的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p><p><blockquote>有很多因素可能会阻止苹果成为一项好的投资，但当看到这样的结果时，很难想象它们。我不会担心别人制造出更好的手机。相反，我最担心的是“未知的未知”，比如一些技术变革，这使得苹果在iPhone的客户满意度方面的优势不再那么重要。</blockquote></p><p> I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p><p><blockquote>我希望我能对苹果的股价得出更坚定的买入/卖出结论，但根据一些合理的假设，我认为它的估值相当合理。我有兴趣购买（或出售）低于120美元的看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":917,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/801664537"}
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