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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":807227477,"tweetId":"807227477","gmtCreate":1628040084999,"gmtModify":1633754153143,"author":{"id":3577323008824535,"idStr":"3577323008824535","authorId":3577323008824535,"authorIdStr":"3577323008824535","name":"JFZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807227477","repostId":1152790915,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152790915","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628039400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152790915?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"August spooks many stock investors but it’s actually one of the Dow’s best months<blockquote>八月让许多股票投资者感到害怕，但它实际上是道琼斯指数最好的月份之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152790915","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"August has delivered investors above-average gains over much of the U.S. market’s history\nSo many in","content":"August has delivered investors above-average gains over much of the U.S. market’s history<blockquote>8月份为投资者带来了美国市场历史上大部分时间高于平均水平的涨幅</blockquote> So many investors believe that stocks perform poorly in August that a shrewd contrarian bet would be that the market will be up this month. Moreover, August is typically a positive month for U.S. stocks. In fact, August has been the best month for stocks over much of the U.S. market’s history.<blockquote>许多投资者认为股市在8月份表现不佳，因此精明的逆向押注是本月市场将上涨。此外，8月通常是美股利好的月份。事实上，在美国市场的大部分历史上，八月是股市表现最好的月份。</blockquote> Consider the monthly average returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;back to its creation in 1896. Over the 90 years until 1986, August was the best-performing month with an average gain of 1.8%, compared to 0.4% for the other months of the calendar.<blockquote>考虑一下道琼斯工业平均指数自1896年创立以来的月平均回报率。在截至1986年的90年中，8月份是表现最好的月份，平均涨幅为1.8%，而日历中其他月份的涨幅为0.4%。</blockquote> Yet since 1986 the reverse has been true, with August being the worst month — posting an average loss of 0.7%, versus an average gain of 0.9% for the other months.<blockquote>然而，自1986年以来，情况恰恰相反，8月份是最糟糕的月份——平均下跌0.7%，而其他月份平均上涨0.9%。</blockquote> Investors who are wary of August’s terrible seasonal tendencies are focusing on this more recent history and ignoring the long-ago record.<blockquote>对8月份可怕的季节性趋势保持警惕的投资者正在关注这段更近的历史，而忽略了很久以前的记录。</blockquote> There’s nothing magical about 1986, by the way. I chose that as the year to divide the historical sample because that was the end date of an early academic analysis of the Dow’s seasonal tendencies. That study, by Josef Lakonishok of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Seymour Smidt of Cornell University, was entitled “Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective.” It appeared inThe Review of Financial Studiesin 1988 and reported that August was indeed the best month for U.S. stocks, on average.<blockquote>顺便说一句，1986年没什么神奇的。我选择这一年作为划分历史样本的年份，因为这是对道琼斯指数季节性趋势的早期学术分析的结束日期。这项研究由伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校的Josef Lakonishok和康奈尔大学的Seymour Smidt进行，题为“季节性异常是真的吗？九十年的视角。”它出现在金融研究综述1988年并报告称，平均而言，8月确实是美国股市表现最好的月份。</blockquote> It perhaps is not surprising that the market’s August’s fortunes turned south almost immediately after that study appeared. Stock market patterns often stop working once too many investors become aware of them.<blockquote>该研究发表后，市场8月份的命运几乎立即转向南方，这或许并不奇怪。一旦太多投资者意识到股市模式，它们往往就会停止运作。</blockquote> Investors who bet on August because of that study didn’t read it very carefully, however. The authors wrote that, even though August came out on top in a ranking of average monthly returns up until then, “there is no consistent monthly pattern in the stock market.” Their conclusion is even truer today, of course.<blockquote>然而，因为这项研究而押注8月份的投资者并没有仔细阅读它。作者写道，尽管8月份在平均月回报率排名中名列前茅，但“股市并不存在一致的月度模式。”当然，他们的结论在今天更加正确。</blockquote> Still, it’s worth noting that, when focusing on all years since 1896, August remains an above-average month. Its average gain is 1.1%, nearly double the 0.6% average for all other months. So if you had to bet on history repeating itself, you’d expect August to be an above-average month for stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，值得注意的是，当关注自1896年以来的所有年份时，8月仍然是一个高于平均水平的月份。其平均涨幅为1.1%，几乎是所有其他月份平均涨幅0.6%的两倍。因此，如果你不得不押注历史重演，你会预计八月将是股市高于平均水平的月份。</blockquote> The investment lesson from this discussion is the importance of focusing on more than the recent past. It’s human nature to violate this rule, of course; this violation has even been given a name by behavioral economists — “recency bias.” But the long-ago history is no less important.<blockquote>从这次讨论中得到的投资教训是，关注不仅仅是最近的过去。当然，违反这条规则是人之常情；这种违规行为甚至被行为经济学家起了一个名字——“新近性偏差”。但是很久以前的历史同样重要。</blockquote> Always focus on as much data as are available when trying to read historical tea leaves. Upon doing that, you discover that the stock market in August is not, from a strict statistical perspective, destined to be better or worse than average. That doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rise a lot this month — or plunge. But if it does, it won’t be because it’s August.<blockquote>当试图阅读历史茶叶时，总是关注尽可能多的可用数据。这样做后，你会发现，从严格的统计角度来看，8月份的股市注定不会比平均水平更好或更差。这并不意味着股市本月不会上涨太多，或者暴跌。但如果是的话，也不会是因为现在是八月。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>August spooks many stock investors but it’s actually one of the Dow’s best months<blockquote>八月让许多股票投资者感到害怕，但它实际上是道琼斯指数最好的月份之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAugust spooks many stock investors but it’s actually one of the Dow’s best months<blockquote>八月让许多股票投资者感到害怕，但它实际上是道琼斯指数最好的月份之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-08-04 09:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAugust has delivered investors above-average gains over much of the U.S. market’s history<blockquote>8月份为投资者带来了美国市场历史上大部分时间高于平均水平的涨幅</blockquote> So many investors believe that stocks perform poorly in August that a shrewd contrarian bet would be that the market will be up this month. Moreover, August is typically a positive month for U.S. stocks. In fact, August has been the best month for stocks over much of the U.S. market’s history.<blockquote>许多投资者认为股市在8月份表现不佳，因此精明的逆向押注是本月市场将上涨。此外，8月通常是美股利好的月份。事实上，在美国市场的大部分历史上，八月是股市表现最好的月份。</blockquote> Consider the monthly average returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;back to its creation in 1896. Over the 90 years until 1986, August was the best-performing month with an average gain of 1.8%, compared to 0.4% for the other months of the calendar.<blockquote>考虑一下道琼斯工业平均指数自1896年创立以来的月平均回报率。在截至1986年的90年中，8月份是表现最好的月份，平均涨幅为1.8%，而日历中其他月份的涨幅为0.4%。</blockquote> Yet since 1986 the reverse has been true, with August being the worst month — posting an average loss of 0.7%, versus an average gain of 0.9% for the other months.<blockquote>然而，自1986年以来，情况恰恰相反，8月份是最糟糕的月份——平均下跌0.7%，而其他月份平均上涨0.9%。</blockquote> Investors who are wary of August’s terrible seasonal tendencies are focusing on this more recent history and ignoring the long-ago record.<blockquote>对8月份可怕的季节性趋势保持警惕的投资者正在关注这段更近的历史，而忽略了很久以前的记录。</blockquote> There’s nothing magical about 1986, by the way. I chose that as the year to divide the historical sample because that was the end date of an early academic analysis of the Dow’s seasonal tendencies. That study, by Josef Lakonishok of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Seymour Smidt of Cornell University, was entitled “Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective.” It appeared inThe Review of Financial Studiesin 1988 and reported that August was indeed the best month for U.S. stocks, on average.<blockquote>顺便说一句，1986年没什么神奇的。我选择这一年作为划分历史样本的年份，因为这是对道琼斯指数季节性趋势的早期学术分析的结束日期。这项研究由伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校的Josef Lakonishok和康奈尔大学的Seymour Smidt进行，题为“季节性异常是真的吗？九十年的视角。”它出现在金融研究综述1988年并报告称，平均而言，8月确实是美国股市表现最好的月份。</blockquote> It perhaps is not surprising that the market’s August’s fortunes turned south almost immediately after that study appeared. Stock market patterns often stop working once too many investors become aware of them.<blockquote>该研究发表后，市场8月份的命运几乎立即转向南方，这或许并不奇怪。一旦太多投资者意识到股市模式，它们往往就会停止运作。</blockquote> Investors who bet on August because of that study didn’t read it very carefully, however. The authors wrote that, even though August came out on top in a ranking of average monthly returns up until then, “there is no consistent monthly pattern in the stock market.” Their conclusion is even truer today, of course.<blockquote>然而，因为这项研究而押注8月份的投资者并没有仔细阅读它。作者写道，尽管8月份在平均月回报率排名中名列前茅，但“股市并不存在一致的月度模式。”当然，他们的结论在今天更加正确。</blockquote> Still, it’s worth noting that, when focusing on all years since 1896, August remains an above-average month. Its average gain is 1.1%, nearly double the 0.6% average for all other months. So if you had to bet on history repeating itself, you’d expect August to be an above-average month for stocks.<blockquote>尽管如此，值得注意的是，当关注自1896年以来的所有年份时，8月仍然是一个高于平均水平的月份。其平均涨幅为1.1%，几乎是所有其他月份平均涨幅0.6%的两倍。因此，如果你不得不押注历史重演，你会预计八月将是股市高于平均水平的月份。</blockquote> The investment lesson from this discussion is the importance of focusing on more than the recent past. It’s human nature to violate this rule, of course; this violation has even been given a name by behavioral economists — “recency bias.” But the long-ago history is no less important.<blockquote>从这次讨论中得到的投资教训是，关注不仅仅是最近的过去。当然，违反这条规则是人之常情；这种违规行为甚至被行为经济学家起了一个名字——“新近性偏差”。但是很久以前的历史同样重要。</blockquote> Always focus on as much data as are available when trying to read historical tea leaves. Upon doing that, you discover that the stock market in August is not, from a strict statistical perspective, destined to be better or worse than average. That doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rise a lot this month — or plunge. But if it does, it won’t be because it’s August.<blockquote>当试图阅读历史茶叶时，总是关注尽可能多的可用数据。这样做后，你会发现，从严格的统计角度来看，8月份的股市注定不会比平均水平更好或更差。这并不意味着股市本月不会上涨太多，或者暴跌。但如果是的话，也不会是因为现在是八月。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-may-not-believe-it-but-august-actually-is-a-great-time-to-be-in-stocks-11627980066?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-may-not-believe-it-but-august-actually-is-a-great-time-to-be-in-stocks-11627980066?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152790915","content_text":"August has delivered investors above-average gains over much of the U.S. market’s history\nSo many investors believe that stocks perform poorly in August that a shrewd contrarian bet would be that the market will be up this month. Moreover, August is typically a positive month for U.S. stocks. In fact, August has been the best month for stocks over much of the U.S. market’s history.\nConsider the monthly average returns for the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in 1896. Over the 90 years until 1986, August was the best-performing month with an average gain of 1.8%, compared to 0.4% for the other months of the calendar.\nYet since 1986 the reverse has been true, with August being the worst month — posting an average loss of 0.7%, versus an average gain of 0.9% for the other months.\nInvestors who are wary of August’s terrible seasonal tendencies are focusing on this more recent history and ignoring the long-ago record.\nThere’s nothing magical about 1986, by the way. I chose that as the year to divide the historical sample because that was the end date of an early academic analysis of the Dow’s seasonal tendencies. That study, by Josef Lakonishok of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Seymour Smidt of Cornell University, was entitled “Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective.” It appeared inThe Review of Financial Studiesin 1988 and reported that August was indeed the best month for U.S. stocks, on average.\nIt perhaps is not surprising that the market’s August’s fortunes turned south almost immediately after that study appeared. Stock market patterns often stop working once too many investors become aware of them.\nInvestors who bet on August because of that study didn’t read it very carefully, however. The authors wrote that, even though August came out on top in a ranking of average monthly returns up until then, “there is no consistent monthly pattern in the stock market.” Their conclusion is even truer today, of course.\nStill, it’s worth noting that, when focusing on all years since 1896, August remains an above-average month. Its average gain is 1.1%, nearly double the 0.6% average for all other months. So if you had to bet on history repeating itself, you’d expect August to be an above-average month for stocks.\nThe investment lesson from this discussion is the importance of focusing on more than the recent past. It’s human nature to violate this rule, of course; this violation has even been given a name by behavioral economists — “recency bias.” But the long-ago history is no less important.\nAlways focus on as much data as are available when trying to read historical tea leaves. Upon doing that, you discover that the stock market in August is not, from a strict statistical perspective, destined to be better or worse than average. That doesn’t mean the stock market won’t rise a lot this month — or plunge. But if it does, it won’t be because it’s August.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/807227477"}