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2021-07-27
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The Fed Meeting Kicks Off Today. Inflation Concerns and a Slowing Economy Will Take Center Stage.<blockquote>美联储会议今天开始。通胀担忧和经济放缓将成为焦点。</blockquote>
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Inflation Concerns and a Slowing Economy Will Take Center Stage.<blockquote>美联储会议今天开始。通胀担忧和经济放缓将成为焦点。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156597463","media":"Barrons","summary":"As the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, it confronts dual si","content":"<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, it confronts dual situations that call for diametrically opposite policy reactions. Inflation has risen substantially more than the monetary authorities had expected, which is weighing on consumers and approval ratings for President Joe Biden.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会周二开始为期两天的政策会议，它面临着看涨期权截然相反的政策反应的双重情况。通货膨胀的上升大大超过了货币当局的预期，这给消费者和总统乔·拜登的支持率带来了压力。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the economy’s growth appears to be decelerating as spending on goods slows from its breakneck pace and the new burst of Covid-19 cases related to the Delta variant deters a recovery of spending on services. In particular, the much-anticipated return to the office by the millions still working at home may be pushed back, at least temporarily and perhaps permanently.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，由于商品支出从极快的速度放缓，以及与德尔塔变异毒株相关的新爆发的Covid-19病例阻碍了服务支出的复苏，经济增长似乎正在减速。特别是，数百万仍在家工作的人期待已久的重返办公室可能会被推迟，至少是暂时的，也许是永久的。</blockquote></p><p> With the consumer-price index up 5.4% from a year ago, inflation is top of mind for consumers. As a result, 54% of Americans say the economy is in poor shape, according to a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，通货膨胀是消费者最关心的问题。因此，根据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心的一项新民意调查，54%的美国人表示经济状况不佳。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve still pins the price rises on transitory factors, to use the buzzword of the moment. Even so, increased costs are having a negative impact. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a 14-month low in June, the third straight monthly drop, as soaring prices for materials and labor hit both supplies and demand. The median price of a new home was 6.1% more expensive from a year ago, to $361,800.</p><p><blockquote>用当下的流行语来说，美联储仍然将价格上涨归咎于暂时性因素。即便如此，成本增加仍会产生负面影响。由于材料和劳动力价格飙升打击了供需，6月份新单户住宅销量跌至14个月低点，连续第三个月下降。新房的中值价格比一年前上涨了6.1%，达到361,800美元。</blockquote></p><p> As this column discussed this past weekend, the Fed is exacerbating home-price inflation with its purchases of $120 billion of securities a month. That consists of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Some would-be home buyers are giving up on the fruitless quest to buy a house as prices soar, the New York Times reported, a spiral made worse by the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the mortgage market.</p><p><blockquote>正如本专栏上周末所讨论的，美联储每月购买1200亿美元的证券，正在加剧房价通胀。其中包括800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。据《纽约时报》报道，随着房价飙升，一些潜在购房者正在放弃毫无结果的购房追求，美联储向抵押贷款市场注入流动性加剧了这种螺旋式上升。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the economy has passed its peak growth and is expected to decelerate significantly from here on to 2022.Goldman Sachs on Monday reduced its GDP forecast, in line with the consensus of economists to 6.6% for the full year of 2021, but to a sharply lower trajectory next year, back to the prepandemic trend rate of just 1.5% to 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，经济已经过了增长峰值，预计从现在到2022年将大幅减速。高盛周一将2021年全年GDP预期下调至6.6%，与经济学家的共识一致，但明年将大幅下降，回到大流行前仅1.5%至2%的趋势增长率。</blockquote></p><p> That comes as no surprise to David Rosenberg, founder and head of Rosenberg Research,who said recently that the economy looked set to slow dramatically after the burst of consumer spending on durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances and durable goods diminished.</p><p><blockquote>对于罗森博格研究公司创始人兼负责人大卫·罗森博格来说，这并不奇怪，他最近表示，在汽车、家用电器和耐用品等耐用品的消费者支出激增后，经济似乎将大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s concern is a handoff from goods to services spending will be delayed or thwarted, especially as a slower return to offices continues to keep a lid on workers’ spending for commuting, work clothes and dry cleaning, and food away from home.</p><p><blockquote>高盛担心，从商品支出到服务支出的转移将被推迟或受阻，特别是因为返回办公室的速度放缓继续限制了工人在通勤、工作服和干洗以及外出食品方面的支出。</blockquote></p><p> Chair Jerome Powell has said all along that Fed policy will depend on the path of the pandemic, which isn’t over, as shown by the upsurge of Covid cases and less than half the population vaccinated, Rosenberg wrote in an email. At the same time, if the FOMC indicates it is moving toward announcing the wind-down of asset purchases, this move to a more accommodative policy could be short-lived, he added.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格在一封电子邮件中写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一直表示，美联储的政策将取决于疫情的发展轨迹，疫情尚未结束，正如新冠病例激增和接种疫苗的人口不到一半所表明的那样。他补充说，与此同时，如果联邦公开市场委员会表示正在宣布逐步减少资产购买，那么这种更宽松政策的举措可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> Rosenberg recalled the Fed shifted to a tightening bias in mid-2008, thinking the worst of the mortgage crisis was over when Bear Stearns was folded into JPMorgan Chase(ticker: JPM) the previous March. Of course, the Fed then had to reverse itself radically by the time the crisis deepened, culminating in the failure of Lehman Brothers and the bailout of American International Group that September.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格回忆说，美联储在2008年中期转向紧缩倾向，认为当贝尔斯登于去年3月并入摩根大通（股票代码：JPM）时，抵押贷款危机最严重的时期已经过去。当然，当危机加深时，美联储不得不彻底扭转局面，最终导致雷曼兄弟破产和那年9月对美国国际集团的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody is suggesting the Fed is about to raise its key federal funds interest rate target from its current rock-bottom 0-0.25%, however. But the FOMC faces conflicting forces about continuing its massive liquidity injections that were initiated at the height of the pandemic crisis in March 2020 as the economy is passing from its peak growth phase and inflation is causing consternation on Main Street.</p><p><blockquote>然而，没有人暗示美联储将把关键的联邦基金利率目标从目前的最低水平0-0.25%上调。但FOMC在继续大规模流动性注入方面面临着相互矛盾的力量，这些流动性注入是在2020年3月大流行危机最严重的时候启动的，当时经济正从增长峰值阶段过去，通胀正在引起普通民众的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever it decides, Powell will have some explaining to do Wednesday at his post-confab press conference.</p><p><blockquote>无论它做出什么决定，鲍威尔都将在周三的会后新闻发布会上做出一些解释。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Meeting Kicks Off Today. Inflation Concerns and a Slowing Economy Will Take Center Stage.<blockquote>美联储会议今天开始。通胀担忧和经济放缓将成为焦点。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Meeting Kicks Off Today. Inflation Concerns and a Slowing Economy Will Take Center Stage.<blockquote>美联储会议今天开始。通胀担忧和经济放缓将成为焦点。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 16:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, it confronts dual situations that call for diametrically opposite policy reactions. Inflation has risen substantially more than the monetary authorities had expected, which is weighing on consumers and approval ratings for President Joe Biden.</p><p><blockquote>随着联邦公开市场委员会周二开始为期两天的政策会议，它面临着看涨期权截然相反的政策反应的双重情况。通货膨胀的上升大大超过了货币当局的预期，这给消费者和总统乔·拜登的支持率带来了压力。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the economy’s growth appears to be decelerating as spending on goods slows from its breakneck pace and the new burst of Covid-19 cases related to the Delta variant deters a recovery of spending on services. In particular, the much-anticipated return to the office by the millions still working at home may be pushed back, at least temporarily and perhaps permanently.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，由于商品支出从极快的速度放缓，以及与德尔塔变异毒株相关的新爆发的Covid-19病例阻碍了服务支出的复苏，经济增长似乎正在减速。特别是，数百万仍在家工作的人期待已久的重返办公室可能会被推迟，至少是暂时的，也许是永久的。</blockquote></p><p> With the consumer-price index up 5.4% from a year ago, inflation is top of mind for consumers. As a result, 54% of Americans say the economy is in poor shape, according to a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.</p><p><blockquote>随着消费者价格指数同比上涨5.4%，通货膨胀是消费者最关心的问题。因此，根据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心的一项新民意调查，54%的美国人表示经济状况不佳。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve still pins the price rises on transitory factors, to use the buzzword of the moment. Even so, increased costs are having a negative impact. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a 14-month low in June, the third straight monthly drop, as soaring prices for materials and labor hit both supplies and demand. The median price of a new home was 6.1% more expensive from a year ago, to $361,800.</p><p><blockquote>用当下的流行语来说，美联储仍然将价格上涨归咎于暂时性因素。即便如此，成本增加仍会产生负面影响。由于材料和劳动力价格飙升打击了供需，6月份新单户住宅销量跌至14个月低点，连续第三个月下降。新房的中值价格比一年前上涨了6.1%，达到361,800美元。</blockquote></p><p> As this column discussed this past weekend, the Fed is exacerbating home-price inflation with its purchases of $120 billion of securities a month. That consists of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Some would-be home buyers are giving up on the fruitless quest to buy a house as prices soar, the New York Times reported, a spiral made worse by the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the mortgage market.</p><p><blockquote>正如本专栏上周末所讨论的，美联储每月购买1200亿美元的证券，正在加剧房价通胀。其中包括800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。据《纽约时报》报道，随着房价飙升，一些潜在购房者正在放弃毫无结果的购房追求，美联储向抵押贷款市场注入流动性加剧了这种螺旋式上升。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the economy has passed its peak growth and is expected to decelerate significantly from here on to 2022.Goldman Sachs on Monday reduced its GDP forecast, in line with the consensus of economists to 6.6% for the full year of 2021, but to a sharply lower trajectory next year, back to the prepandemic trend rate of just 1.5% to 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，经济已经过了增长峰值，预计从现在到2022年将大幅减速。高盛周一将2021年全年GDP预期下调至6.6%，与经济学家的共识一致，但明年将大幅下降，回到大流行前仅1.5%至2%的趋势增长率。</blockquote></p><p> That comes as no surprise to David Rosenberg, founder and head of Rosenberg Research,who said recently that the economy looked set to slow dramatically after the burst of consumer spending on durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances and durable goods diminished.</p><p><blockquote>对于罗森博格研究公司创始人兼负责人大卫·罗森博格来说，这并不奇怪，他最近表示，在汽车、家用电器和耐用品等耐用品的消费者支出激增后，经济似乎将大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s concern is a handoff from goods to services spending will be delayed or thwarted, especially as a slower return to offices continues to keep a lid on workers’ spending for commuting, work clothes and dry cleaning, and food away from home.</p><p><blockquote>高盛担心，从商品支出到服务支出的转移将被推迟或受阻，特别是因为返回办公室的速度放缓继续限制了工人在通勤、工作服和干洗以及外出食品方面的支出。</blockquote></p><p> Chair Jerome Powell has said all along that Fed policy will depend on the path of the pandemic, which isn’t over, as shown by the upsurge of Covid cases and less than half the population vaccinated, Rosenberg wrote in an email. At the same time, if the FOMC indicates it is moving toward announcing the wind-down of asset purchases, this move to a more accommodative policy could be short-lived, he added.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格在一封电子邮件中写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一直表示，美联储的政策将取决于疫情的发展轨迹，疫情尚未结束，正如新冠病例激增和接种疫苗的人口不到一半所表明的那样。他补充说，与此同时，如果联邦公开市场委员会表示正在宣布逐步减少资产购买，那么这种更宽松政策的举措可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> Rosenberg recalled the Fed shifted to a tightening bias in mid-2008, thinking the worst of the mortgage crisis was over when Bear Stearns was folded into JPMorgan Chase(ticker: JPM) the previous March. Of course, the Fed then had to reverse itself radically by the time the crisis deepened, culminating in the failure of Lehman Brothers and the bailout of American International Group that September.</p><p><blockquote>罗森伯格回忆说，美联储在2008年中期转向紧缩倾向，认为当贝尔斯登于去年3月并入摩根大通（股票代码：JPM）时，抵押贷款危机最严重的时期已经过去。当然，当危机加深时，美联储不得不彻底扭转局面，最终导致雷曼兄弟破产和那年9月对美国国际集团的救助。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody is suggesting the Fed is about to raise its key federal funds interest rate target from its current rock-bottom 0-0.25%, however. But the FOMC faces conflicting forces about continuing its massive liquidity injections that were initiated at the height of the pandemic crisis in March 2020 as the economy is passing from its peak growth phase and inflation is causing consternation on Main Street.</p><p><blockquote>然而，没有人暗示美联储将把关键的联邦基金利率目标从目前的最低水平0-0.25%上调。但FOMC在继续大规模流动性注入方面面临着相互矛盾的力量，这些流动性注入是在2020年3月大流行危机最严重的时候启动的，当时经济正从增长峰值阶段过去，通胀正在引起普通民众的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever it decides, Powell will have some explaining to do Wednesday at his post-confab press conference.</p><p><blockquote>无论它做出什么决定，鲍威尔都将在周三的会后新闻发布会上做出一些解释。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-meeting-this-week-51627342935?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-meeting-this-week-51627342935?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156597463","content_text":"As the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, it confronts dual situations that call for diametrically opposite policy reactions. Inflation has risen substantially more than the monetary authorities had expected, which is weighing on consumers and approval ratings for President Joe Biden.\nAt the same time, the economy’s growth appears to be decelerating as spending on goods slows from its breakneck pace and the new burst of Covid-19 cases related to the Delta variant deters a recovery of spending on services. In particular, the much-anticipated return to the office by the millions still working at home may be pushed back, at least temporarily and perhaps permanently.\nWith the consumer-price index up 5.4% from a year ago, inflation is top of mind for consumers. As a result, 54% of Americans say the economy is in poor shape, according to a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.\nThe Federal Reserve still pins the price rises on transitory factors, to use the buzzword of the moment. Even so, increased costs are having a negative impact. Sales of new single-family homes fell to a 14-month low in June, the third straight monthly drop, as soaring prices for materials and labor hit both supplies and demand. The median price of a new home was 6.1% more expensive from a year ago, to $361,800.\nAs this column discussed this past weekend, the Fed is exacerbating home-price inflation with its purchases of $120 billion of securities a month. That consists of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Some would-be home buyers are giving up on the fruitless quest to buy a house as prices soar, the New York Times reported, a spiral made worse by the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the mortgage market.\nAt the same time, the economy has passed its peak growth and is expected to decelerate significantly from here on to 2022.Goldman Sachs on Monday reduced its GDP forecast, in line with the consensus of economists to 6.6% for the full year of 2021, but to a sharply lower trajectory next year, back to the prepandemic trend rate of just 1.5% to 2%.\nThat comes as no surprise to David Rosenberg, founder and head of Rosenberg Research,who said recently that the economy looked set to slow dramatically after the burst of consumer spending on durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances and durable goods diminished.\nGoldman’s concern is a handoff from goods to services spending will be delayed or thwarted, especially as a slower return to offices continues to keep a lid on workers’ spending for commuting, work clothes and dry cleaning, and food away from home.\nChair Jerome Powell has said all along that Fed policy will depend on the path of the pandemic, which isn’t over, as shown by the upsurge of Covid cases and less than half the population vaccinated, Rosenberg wrote in an email. At the same time, if the FOMC indicates it is moving toward announcing the wind-down of asset purchases, this move to a more accommodative policy could be short-lived, he added.\nRosenberg recalled the Fed shifted to a tightening bias in mid-2008, thinking the worst of the mortgage crisis was over when Bear Stearns was folded into JPMorgan Chase(ticker: JPM) the previous March. Of course, the Fed then had to reverse itself radically by the time the crisis deepened, culminating in the failure of Lehman Brothers and the bailout of American International Group that September.\nNobody is suggesting the Fed is about to raise its key federal funds interest rate target from its current rock-bottom 0-0.25%, however. But the FOMC faces conflicting forces about continuing its massive liquidity injections that were initiated at the height of the pandemic crisis in March 2020 as the economy is passing from its peak growth phase and inflation is causing consternation on Main Street.\nWhatever it decides, Powell will have some explaining to do Wednesday at his post-confab press conference.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3087,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/809538392"}
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