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2021-09-03
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US Auto Sales Crash As Dealer Inventory Hits New Record Low<blockquote>经销商库存创历史新低，美国汽车销量暴跌</blockquote>
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As last month, the collapse in sales was widely attributed to the ongoing collapse in auto inventory levels.</p><p><blockquote>Wards和Motor Intelligence的美国轻型汽车销量在8月份大幅下滑至仅1,310万辆(SAAR)，较2020年8月的约1,530万辆下降了10%左右，较7月份的约1,460万辆大幅下降。与上个月一样，销量暴跌被广泛归因于汽车库存水平的持续暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae40d58107530ba5377aa6366d4de490\" tg-width=\"451\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Some more details from Goldman:</p><p><blockquote>高盛提供的更多细节：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Car sales were down about 18% yoy, SUV sales were down about 15% yoy, and pickup truck sales were down about 24% yoy.</b>Pickups and SUVs as a percent of total units were 19% and 53%, respectively (vs. 20% and 51% in August 2020).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>轿车销量同比下降约18%，SUV销量同比下降约15%，皮卡销量同比下降约24%。</b>皮卡和SUV占总销量的百分比分别为19%和53%（2020年8月为20%和51%）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Per Motor Intelligence, Ford sales were down about 33% yoy and GM sales were down about 39% yoy in August.</b>Ford's market share in August declined yoy to 11% from 14%, and GM's market share declined yoy to 12% from 17%. We believe that Ford and GM have faced more difficult supply chain challenges than some of their competitors YTD.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>根据Motor Intelligence的数据，8月份福特销量同比下降约33%，通用汽车销量同比下降约39%。</b>福特8月份市场份额同比从14%下降至11%，通用汽车市场份额同比从17%下降至12%。我们认为，福特和通用汽车年初至今面临着比一些竞争对手更困难的供应链挑战。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> But while legacy auto sales tumbled, EVs and hybrids continued their recent ascent, and<b>in August EV sales were up about 39% yoy, and hybrid sales were up about 63% yoy, per Motor Intelligence.</b>In part this was due in part to growing consumer demand for EVs and hybrids, in addition to more EV/HEV models on the market. It is worth noting that Tesla does not report monthly sales, and given its dominant EV market share in the US, the EV data has a greater degree of estimation than the other monthly datapoints.</p><p><blockquote>尽管传统汽车销量大幅下滑，但电动汽车和混合动力汽车近期仍在继续上涨，<b>根据Motor Intelligence的数据，8月份电动汽车销量同比增长约39%，混合动力汽车销量同比增长约63%。</b>这部分是由于消费者对电动汽车和混合动力汽车的需求不断增长，以及市场上更多的电动汽车/混合动力汽车车型。值得注意的是，特斯拉不报告月度销量，鉴于其在美国电动汽车市场的主导份额，电动汽车数据比其他月度数据点具有更大程度的估计。</blockquote></p><p> Next, looking at incentives, it is hardly a surprise that with cars flying off the lots,there were barely any. According to Motor Intelligence, August's industry incentive spending per vehicle was down about 40% yoy and down about 4% sequentially to about $2.4k per vehicle. Goldman expects industry pricing to remain strong as components shortages continue to weigh on production in the short term, and dealer inventory remains low.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，看看激励措施，随着汽车从停车场飞出，几乎没有任何激励措施也就不足为奇了。根据Motor Intelligence的数据，8月份每辆车的行业激励支出同比下降约40%，环比下降约4%，至每辆车约2400美元。高盛预计，由于零部件短缺在短期内继续拖累生产，且经销商库存仍处于低位，行业定价将保持强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/626dda64374acafd1fe144e12ac108cc\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"475\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, the elephant in the room remains the inventory level at dealer lots, or rather lack thereof:<b>Inventory at US dealers, already all time low, declined even more and sank sequentially to below 1.0 mn from just above 1.0 mn in July 2021, and down from 2.5 mn in August 2020.</b>Industry DOI came in at 23 days compared to 22 days in July 2021 and 50 days in August 2020. Pickup truck DOI was 32 days (vs. 31 in July 2021 and 50 in August 2020), SUV DOI was 21 days (vs. 20 in July 2021 and 48 in August 2020), and car DOI was 18 days (vs. 19 in July 2021 and 52 in August 2020).</p><p><blockquote>最后，房间里的大象仍然是经销商批次的库存水平，或者更确切地说是缺乏库存水平：<b>美国经销商的库存已经处于历史最低水平，下降幅度更大，从2021年7月的略高于100万辆降至100万辆以下，从2020年8月的250万辆降至100万辆以下。</b>行业DOI为23天，而2021年7月为22天，2020年8月为50天。皮卡DOI为32天（2021年7月为31天，2020年8月为50天），SUV DOI为21天（2021年7月为20天，2020年8月为48天），汽车DOI为18天（2021年7月为19天，2020年8月为52天）。</blockquote></p><p> Inventories at dealers continued to fall from already historically low levels, and according to Goldman, it will take time for inventory at dealers to return to normalized levels given the strong demand for vehicles coupled with ongoing supply chain challenges (particularly with semiconductor chip shortages, but also due to shipping constraints).</p><p><blockquote>经销商的库存继续从已经处于历史低位的水平下降，高盛表示，鉴于对汽车的强劲需求加上持续的供应链挑战（特别是半导体芯片短缺，但也由于运输限制），经销商的库存恢复到正常水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4ba9ab1e8470abe85a35402efc99dff\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"455\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What are the implications? According to Goldman's auto analyst, \"August sales results were well below our preview\" as historically low inventory levels (<i>below 1MM units vs. historically in the 3-4MM range</i>) continued to weigh on industry sales but by more than even Goldman had expected. Goldman concludes that the August sales level, coupled with the reduced volumes in recent months and very low inventory, implies downside risk to its full-year CY21 SAAR view, driven by very limited supply \"given that inventory declined by about ~50K units mom despite the weaker sales level.\"</p><p><blockquote>有什么含义？高盛汽车分析师表示，“8月份的销售业绩远低于我们的预期”，因为库存水平处于历史低位（<i>低于1毫米单位与历史上在3-4毫米范围内</i>）继续拖累行业销售，但幅度甚至超出了高盛的预期。高盛得出的结论是，8月份的销售水平，加上近几个月销量减少和库存非常低，意味着其全年CY21 SAAR前景面临下行风险，这是由于供应非常有限，“考虑到库存环比下降了约5万台，尽管销售水平较弱。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Auto Sales Crash As Dealer Inventory Hits New Record Low<blockquote>经销商库存创历史新低，美国汽车销量暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Auto Sales Crash As Dealer Inventory Hits New Record Low<blockquote>经销商库存创历史新低，美国汽车销量暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 08:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>US light vehicle sales tumbled in August, sliding to just 13.1 million (SAAR) per both Wards and Motor Intelligence, down in the mid-teens percent range from about 15.3 million in August 2020 and down sharply from the July SAAR of about 14.6 million. As last month, the collapse in sales was widely attributed to the ongoing collapse in auto inventory levels.</p><p><blockquote>Wards和Motor Intelligence的美国轻型汽车销量在8月份大幅下滑至仅1,310万辆(SAAR)，较2020年8月的约1,530万辆下降了10%左右，较7月份的约1,460万辆大幅下降。与上个月一样，销量暴跌被广泛归因于汽车库存水平的持续暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae40d58107530ba5377aa6366d4de490\" tg-width=\"451\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Some more details from Goldman:</p><p><blockquote>高盛提供的更多细节：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Car sales were down about 18% yoy, SUV sales were down about 15% yoy, and pickup truck sales were down about 24% yoy.</b>Pickups and SUVs as a percent of total units were 19% and 53%, respectively (vs. 20% and 51% in August 2020).</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>轿车销量同比下降约18%，SUV销量同比下降约15%，皮卡销量同比下降约24%。</b>皮卡和SUV占总销量的百分比分别为19%和53%（2020年8月为20%和51%）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Per Motor Intelligence, Ford sales were down about 33% yoy and GM sales were down about 39% yoy in August.</b>Ford's market share in August declined yoy to 11% from 14%, and GM's market share declined yoy to 12% from 17%. We believe that Ford and GM have faced more difficult supply chain challenges than some of their competitors YTD.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>根据Motor Intelligence的数据，8月份福特销量同比下降约33%，通用汽车销量同比下降约39%。</b>福特8月份市场份额同比从14%下降至11%，通用汽车市场份额同比从17%下降至12%。我们认为，福特和通用汽车年初至今面临着比一些竞争对手更困难的供应链挑战。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> But while legacy auto sales tumbled, EVs and hybrids continued their recent ascent, and<b>in August EV sales were up about 39% yoy, and hybrid sales were up about 63% yoy, per Motor Intelligence.</b>In part this was due in part to growing consumer demand for EVs and hybrids, in addition to more EV/HEV models on the market. It is worth noting that Tesla does not report monthly sales, and given its dominant EV market share in the US, the EV data has a greater degree of estimation than the other monthly datapoints.</p><p><blockquote>尽管传统汽车销量大幅下滑，但电动汽车和混合动力汽车近期仍在继续上涨，<b>根据Motor Intelligence的数据，8月份电动汽车销量同比增长约39%，混合动力汽车销量同比增长约63%。</b>这部分是由于消费者对电动汽车和混合动力汽车的需求不断增长，以及市场上更多的电动汽车/混合动力汽车车型。值得注意的是，特斯拉不报告月度销量，鉴于其在美国电动汽车市场的主导份额，电动汽车数据比其他月度数据点具有更大程度的估计。</blockquote></p><p> Next, looking at incentives, it is hardly a surprise that with cars flying off the lots,there were barely any. According to Motor Intelligence, August's industry incentive spending per vehicle was down about 40% yoy and down about 4% sequentially to about $2.4k per vehicle. Goldman expects industry pricing to remain strong as components shortages continue to weigh on production in the short term, and dealer inventory remains low.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，看看激励措施，随着汽车从停车场飞出，几乎没有任何激励措施也就不足为奇了。根据Motor Intelligence的数据，8月份每辆车的行业激励支出同比下降约40%，环比下降约4%，至每辆车约2400美元。高盛预计，由于零部件短缺在短期内继续拖累生产，且经销商库存仍处于低位，行业定价将保持强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/626dda64374acafd1fe144e12ac108cc\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"475\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, the elephant in the room remains the inventory level at dealer lots, or rather lack thereof:<b>Inventory at US dealers, already all time low, declined even more and sank sequentially to below 1.0 mn from just above 1.0 mn in July 2021, and down from 2.5 mn in August 2020.</b>Industry DOI came in at 23 days compared to 22 days in July 2021 and 50 days in August 2020. Pickup truck DOI was 32 days (vs. 31 in July 2021 and 50 in August 2020), SUV DOI was 21 days (vs. 20 in July 2021 and 48 in August 2020), and car DOI was 18 days (vs. 19 in July 2021 and 52 in August 2020).</p><p><blockquote>最后，房间里的大象仍然是经销商批次的库存水平，或者更确切地说是缺乏库存水平：<b>美国经销商的库存已经处于历史最低水平，下降幅度更大，从2021年7月的略高于100万辆降至100万辆以下，从2020年8月的250万辆降至100万辆以下。</b>行业DOI为23天，而2021年7月为22天，2020年8月为50天。皮卡DOI为32天（2021年7月为31天，2020年8月为50天），SUV DOI为21天（2021年7月为20天，2020年8月为48天），汽车DOI为18天（2021年7月为19天，2020年8月为52天）。</blockquote></p><p> Inventories at dealers continued to fall from already historically low levels, and according to Goldman, it will take time for inventory at dealers to return to normalized levels given the strong demand for vehicles coupled with ongoing supply chain challenges (particularly with semiconductor chip shortages, but also due to shipping constraints).</p><p><blockquote>经销商的库存继续从已经处于历史低位的水平下降，高盛表示，鉴于对汽车的强劲需求加上持续的供应链挑战（特别是半导体芯片短缺，但也由于运输限制），经销商的库存恢复到正常水平需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4ba9ab1e8470abe85a35402efc99dff\" tg-width=\"639\" tg-height=\"455\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What are the implications? According to Goldman's auto analyst, \"August sales results were well below our preview\" as historically low inventory levels (<i>below 1MM units vs. historically in the 3-4MM range</i>) continued to weigh on industry sales but by more than even Goldman had expected. Goldman concludes that the August sales level, coupled with the reduced volumes in recent months and very low inventory, implies downside risk to its full-year CY21 SAAR view, driven by very limited supply \"given that inventory declined by about ~50K units mom despite the weaker sales level.\"</p><p><blockquote>有什么含义？高盛汽车分析师表示，“8月份的销售业绩远低于我们的预期”，因为库存水平处于历史低位（<i>低于1毫米单位与历史上在3-4毫米范围内</i>）继续拖累行业销售，但幅度甚至超出了高盛的预期。高盛得出的结论是，8月份的销售水平，加上近几个月销量减少和库存非常低，意味着其全年CY21 SAAR前景面临下行风险，这是由于供应非常有限，“考虑到库存环比下降了约5万台，尽管销售水平较弱。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-auto-sales-crash-dealer-inventory-hits-new-record-low\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-auto-sales-crash-dealer-inventory-hits-new-record-low","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113294574","content_text":"US light vehicle sales tumbled in August, sliding to just 13.1 million (SAAR) per both Wards and Motor Intelligence, down in the mid-teens percent range from about 15.3 million in August 2020 and down sharply from the July SAAR of about 14.6 million. As last month, the collapse in sales was widely attributed to the ongoing collapse in auto inventory levels.\nSome more details from Goldman:\n\nCar sales were down about 18% yoy, SUV sales were down about 15% yoy, and pickup truck sales were down about 24% yoy.Pickups and SUVs as a percent of total units were 19% and 53%, respectively (vs. 20% and 51% in August 2020).\nPer Motor Intelligence, Ford sales were down about 33% yoy and GM sales were down about 39% yoy in August.Ford's market share in August declined yoy to 11% from 14%, and GM's market share declined yoy to 12% from 17%. We believe that Ford and GM have faced more difficult supply chain challenges than some of their competitors YTD.\n\nBut while legacy auto sales tumbled, EVs and hybrids continued their recent ascent, andin August EV sales were up about 39% yoy, and hybrid sales were up about 63% yoy, per Motor Intelligence.In part this was due in part to growing consumer demand for EVs and hybrids, in addition to more EV/HEV models on the market. It is worth noting that Tesla does not report monthly sales, and given its dominant EV market share in the US, the EV data has a greater degree of estimation than the other monthly datapoints.\nNext, looking at incentives, it is hardly a surprise that with cars flying off the lots,there were barely any. According to Motor Intelligence, August's industry incentive spending per vehicle was down about 40% yoy and down about 4% sequentially to about $2.4k per vehicle. Goldman expects industry pricing to remain strong as components shortages continue to weigh on production in the short term, and dealer inventory remains low.\nFinally, the elephant in the room remains the inventory level at dealer lots, or rather lack thereof:Inventory at US dealers, already all time low, declined even more and sank sequentially to below 1.0 mn from just above 1.0 mn in July 2021, and down from 2.5 mn in August 2020.Industry DOI came in at 23 days compared to 22 days in July 2021 and 50 days in August 2020. Pickup truck DOI was 32 days (vs. 31 in July 2021 and 50 in August 2020), SUV DOI was 21 days (vs. 20 in July 2021 and 48 in August 2020), and car DOI was 18 days (vs. 19 in July 2021 and 52 in August 2020).\nInventories at dealers continued to fall from already historically low levels, and according to Goldman, it will take time for inventory at dealers to return to normalized levels given the strong demand for vehicles coupled with ongoing supply chain challenges (particularly with semiconductor chip shortages, but also due to shipping constraints).\n\nWhat are the implications? According to Goldman's auto analyst, \"August sales results were well below our preview\" as historically low inventory levels (below 1MM units vs. historically in the 3-4MM range) continued to weigh on industry sales but by more than even Goldman had expected. Goldman concludes that the August sales level, coupled with the reduced volumes in recent months and very low inventory, implies downside risk to its full-year CY21 SAAR view, driven by very limited supply \"given that inventory declined by about ~50K units mom despite the weaker sales level.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":722,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/815092969"}
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