daggerw
2021-10-12
@jemmie
[财迷]
[财迷]
[财迷]
Tesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到2030年将达到2,500美元</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":826711267,"tweetId":"826711267","gmtCreate":1634052793998,"gmtModify":1634052794340,"author":{"id":3581756393031205,"idStr":"3581756393031205","authorId":3581756393031205,"authorIdStr":"3581756393031205","name":"daggerw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4157c588742934fdb76cbe005dc6ec0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":16,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581767186680148\">@jemmie</a><span>[财迷] </span><span>[财迷] </span><span>[财迷] </span></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3581767186680148\">@jemmie</a><span>[财迷] </span><span>[财迷] </span><span>[财迷] </span></p></body></html>","text":"@jemmie[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826711267","repostId":1188785088,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188785088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634052465,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188785088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到2030年将达到2,500美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188785088","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla experienced explosive gains last year.\nThis year, the stock has struggled, but the co","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Tesla experienced explosive gains last year.</li> <li>This year, the stock has struggled, but the company is on the right track.</li> <li>Better-than-anticipated production and deliveries data suggests the stock can push higher into year-end.</li> <li>I suspect Tesla has more upside, and the stock could hit $2,500 in future years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207deb1c8eb2af0f4c49abcb18226dd4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉去年经历了爆炸性的增长。</li><li>今年，该股表现不佳，但该公司正走在正确的轨道上。</li><li>好于预期的生产和交付数据表明该股可能会在年底前走高。</li><li>我怀疑特斯拉还有更大的上涨空间，该股未来几年可能会触及2,500美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I've been a Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)bull for a long time now. It's hard to believe, but the first time I purchased Tesla's stock was eight years ago when the share price was around a split-adjusted $30. Now, roughly 2,500% higher, I am still long Tesla and I think there is more upside in this stock. Tesla remains the leader in the ultra-lucrative EV space. The company arguably has the best products, powered by the most advanced technologies.</p><p><blockquote>我长期以来一直看好特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）。很难相信，我第一次购买特斯拉的股票是在八年前，当时股价约为分拆调整后的30美元。现在，大约上涨了2,500%，我仍然做多特斯拉，我认为这只股票还有更大的上涨空间。特斯拉仍然是利润丰厚的电动汽车领域的领导者。该公司可以说拥有最好的产品，由最先进的技术驱动。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Tesla has a unique set of competitive advantages that the company utilizes to stay ahead of its competition year after year. Tesla just put up stellar delivery and production numbers, will likely surpass analysts' expectations this quarter, and the company has enormous revenue and EPS growth potential as we advance. While we will not see Tesla shares gain another 2,500% from here any time soon, the stock can probably hit $1,000 by year-end or early next year. Moreover, Tesla shares could climb substantially higher over the next several years as well.</p><p><blockquote>此外，特斯拉拥有一系列独特的竞争优势，该公司利用这些优势年复一年地在竞争中保持领先地位。特斯拉刚刚公布了出色的交付和生产数据，本季度可能会超出分析师的预期，随着我们的发展，该公司拥有巨大的收入和每股收益增长潜力。虽然我们不会看到特斯拉股价很快再上涨2,500%，但到年底或明年初，该股可能会触及1,000美元。此外，特斯拉股价在未来几年也可能大幅攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Setup</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术设置</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabe94c8ac775d6a4113df03ad66ffdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Stockcharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Stockcharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla had a stellar run-up in 2020 and into year-end last year. Then the stock experienced a significant correction of around 40% down to the $550 level. After this giant pullback, Tesla shares came back for a successful retest of the $550 level. Since then, the stock has been in a steady, concise, upward channel. The current move higher should continue until the bullish trend breaks. However, the bullish trend is robust and could power Tesla shares to $1,000 by the end of this year. Moreover, the company has numerous favorable fundamental factors to go along with the constructive technical setup right now.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年和去年年底取得了出色的增长。随后该股经历了约40%的大幅回调，跌至550美元的水平。在这次大幅回调之后，特斯拉股价卷土重来，成功重新测试550美元水平。此后，该股一直处于稳定、简洁的上升通道中。目前的上涨应该会持续到看涨趋势被打破。然而，看涨趋势强劲，可能会推动特斯拉股价在今年年底前升至1,000美元。此外，该公司目前拥有许多有利的基本面因素来配合建设性的技术设置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Edge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla continues to enjoy a multifaceted competitive advantage relative to its peers. Its approach to marketing, sales, software development, battery production, supercharging, design, development, and production provides Tesla with a significant edge relative to its competitors. Tesla designs and delivers everything from scratch, and the company remains ever focused on staying ahead of the curve innovation-wise in the EV space. However, most traditional automakers are still mainly focused on ICE vehicles and are still pivoting towards EVs. The bottom line is that the EV market is continuously gaining share over the conventional ICE market, and Tesla is the clear leader when it comes to EVs.</p><p><blockquote>相对于同行，特斯拉继续享有多方面的竞争优势。其营销、销售、软件开发、电池生产、增压、设计、开发和生产方法使特斯拉相对于竞争对手具有显着优势。特斯拉从头开始设计和交付一切，该公司始终专注于在电动汽车领域的创新方面保持领先地位。然而，大多数传统汽车制造商仍然主要专注于内燃机汽车，并且仍在转向电动汽车。最重要的是，电动汽车市场正在不断获得传统内燃机市场的份额，而特斯拉在电动汽车方面显然是领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global EV Market Share First Half of 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年上半年全球电动汽车市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460efe2072a471a917fc24f40e742d6e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: statista.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：statista.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Deliveries Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量激增</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla just announced another record deliveries quarter of 241,300 vehiclesin Q3, a 20% increase over the last quarter and a remarkable 73% YoY surge. Tesla delivered a total of 9,275 Model S/X vehicles along with 232,025 mainstream Model 3/Y cars. Now, if we adjust for lease vehicles, we arrive at about 7,420 Model S/X vehicle sales and roughly 218,104 Model 3/Y vehicles sold in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉刚刚宣布第三季度交付量再创新高，达到241,300辆，比上一季度增长20%，同比大幅增长73%。特斯拉总共交付了9,275辆Model S/X汽车以及232,025辆主流Model 3/Y汽车。现在，如果我们对租赁车辆进行调整，我们得出第三季度Model S/X汽车销量约为7,420辆，Model 3/Y汽车销量约为218,104辆。</blockquote></p><p> Last quarter (Q2 2021), Tesla sold (leases excluded) a total of about 187,163 vehicles for $9.874 billion. This sales image suggests that the average selling price (\"ASP\") across all vehicles was roughly $53K. Tesla sold approximately 1,550 Model S/X vehicles in Q2. Thus, if we approximate an ASP of $100,000 - $110,000 for Model S/X vehicle sales, we are left with about $52,000 for the Model 3/Y segment.</p><p><blockquote>上个季度（2021年第二季度），特斯拉总共售出（不包括租赁）约187,163辆汽车，价值98.74亿美元。这张销售图片表明，所有车辆的平均售价(“ASP”)约为5.3万美元。特斯拉在Q2销售了约1550辆Model S/X汽车。因此，如果我们估计Model S/X车辆销售的平均售价为100,000-110,000美元，那么Model 3/Y细分市场的平均售价约为52,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, to get an approximate number for Tesla vehicle sales in Q3, we can use an ASP of $105,000 for the 7,420 Model S/X vehicles sold in the quarter, and we can use the $52,000 ASP for the 218,104 Model 3/Y cars delivered in Q3. This estimate gives us an approximate $800 million in Model S/X sales and $11.34 billion in Model 3/Y sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要获得第三季度特斯拉汽车销量的大致数字，我们可以对该季度售出的7,420辆Model S/X汽车使用105,000美元的ASP，对218,104辆Model 3/Y汽车使用52,000美元的ASP在第三季度交付。根据这一估计，Model S/X的销售额约为8亿美元，Model 3/Y的销售额约为113.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 Earnings Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利展望</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师估计：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Last quarter, Tesla delivered $1.45 in EPS, beating consensus analysts' forecasts by about $0.47 or 48%. The company announced revenues of $11.96 billion, beating estimates by $559.33 million simultaneously. Now for Q3, consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.47 and revenues of $13.49 billion. However, I think Tesla will beat these figures as well.</p><p><blockquote>上季度，特斯拉的每股收益为1.45美元，比分析师普遍预期高出约0.47美元，即48%。该公司宣布营收为119.6亿美元，同时超出预期5.5933亿美元。目前，第三季度的普遍预期是每股收益为1.47美元，营收为134.9亿美元。然而，我认为特斯拉也会超过这些数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>My Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的估计：</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49202e7907ab71b56fdc7a9bd908431d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"975\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者材料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Instead of the $13.49 billion revenues figure, I am looking for $14.74 billion in revenues, about a 9% increase over consensus expectations. Moreover, I think we can see about $1.85 in non-GAAP EPS out of Tesla in Q3, roughly 26% better than the current consensus figures imply. If Tesla makes good on its notably better-than-expected Q3 results, the stock will have a strong catalyst for a rally into year-end.</p><p><blockquote>我预计的收入不是134.9亿美元，而是147.4亿美元，比普遍预期增长约9%。此外，我认为我们可以看到特斯拉第三季度的非GAAP每股收益约为1.85美元，比当前共识数据高出约26%。如果特斯拉实现明显好于预期的第三季度业绩，该股将成为年底反弹的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bright Future Ahead for Tesla</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉前途光明</b></blockquote></p><p> Estimates are moving up for Tesla. There have been 26 upward revisions relative to just one downward (FY2021) revision over the last 90 days. Still, estimates could continue to move higher.</p><p><blockquote>对特斯拉的估计正在上升。在过去90天内，有26次上调，而只有一次下调（2021财年）。尽管如此，预期可能会继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda469abb83b22a2a4505ae8d0373158\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, I want to draw your attention to the number of beats in recent quarters. Sure, Tesla's earnings remain somewhat volatile, but it's difficult to deny the better-than-anticipated earnings growth of late. Consensus estimates were for $3.61 in EPS for the last four quarters. Yet, the company's actual EPS numbers came in at $3.94, an average beat of around 9% over consensus estimates. We already see estimates that are substantial increases on a YoY basis, but I think that results can continue to come in stronger than anticipated (by about 10-20%) as we advance.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我想提请您注意最近几个季度的节拍数量。当然，特斯拉的盈利仍然有些波动，但很难否认最近好于预期的盈利增长。市场普遍预期过去四个季度的每股收益为3.61美元。然而，该公司的实际每股收益为3.94美元，平均比市场普遍预期高出9%左右。我们已经看到了同比大幅增长的估计，但我认为随着我们的进展，结果可能会继续强于预期（约10-20%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb9918909984b4de589a4266c10f2a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3215da27370b6e97c23883ece163f6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see expectations for significant EPS and revenue gains in future years for Tesla. While the stock may seem relatively expensive right now, shares should become increasingly less costly as EPS surge in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计特斯拉未来几年的每股收益和收入将大幅增长。虽然该股目前看起来相对昂贵，但随着未来几年每股收益的飙升，该股的成本应该会越来越低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4392b7b8eeb3a6fc412f6cd79fe9e44e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here is what Tesla's EPS, P/E ratio, and share price could look like in future years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是特斯拉未来几年的每股收益、市盈率和股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e110af6b9747752c5a540bdb00c5a4\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者材料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's steady and robust EPS growth trend should continue, and I expect the company's share price could reach $2,500 or higher by the end of the decade. Now, some market participants could argue that these stock price projections are optimistic. However, I think that these projections may be relatively modest. First, the company could deliver higher EPS than I anticipate in future years, and second, Tesla's P/E ratio could remain elevated for longer.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稳定强劲的每股收益增长趋势应该会持续下去，我预计该公司的股价到本世纪末可能会达到2,500美元或更高。现在，一些市场参与者可能会认为这些股价预测是乐观的。然而，我认为这些预测可能相对温和。首先，该公司未来几年的每股收益可能会高于我的预期，其次，特斯拉的市盈率可能会在更长时间内保持较高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Due to Tesla's unique growth dynamic, the only company that can compare to Tesla is Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), in my view. Amazon's current valuation is what a more mature Tesla valuation could become. Incidentally, Amazon currently trades at about 58 times EPS, exactly where I have my 2029 Tesla P/E ratio pegged. Also, the projected stock price appreciation is only 220% from current levels, which is relatively modest if we consider the number of years.</p><p><blockquote>由于特斯拉独特的增长动力，在我看来，唯一可以与特斯拉相比的公司是亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）。亚马逊目前的估值是更成熟的特斯拉估值可能达到的水平。顺便说一句，亚马逊目前的市盈率约为58倍，这正是我对2029年特斯拉市盈率的预期。此外，预计股价较当前水平仅上涨220%，如果考虑年数，这一涨幅相对较小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Tesla's $2,500 Price Target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉2,500美元目标价面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, when you are talking about Tesla, there are risks to consider. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $50 per share by 2030, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there is the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to increase EPS nearly tenfold by 2030. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, I believe one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.</p><p><blockquote>当然，当你谈论特斯拉时，有风险需要考虑。虽然我估计到2030年该公司每股收益可接近50美元，但该公司目前距离这样的数字还很远。因此，特斯拉存在无法实现我所设想的盈利增长的风险。需求放缓、竞争加剧、供应问题、增长下降和其他变量都是我们在押注特斯拉到2030年每股收益增长近十倍之前应该考虑的风险。严重的担忧可能会导致特斯拉的估值下降，如果出现任何严重问题，该公司的股价甚至可能出现逆转。因此，我认为在投入任何资金进行特斯拉投资之前，应该仔细考虑风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到2030年将达到2,500美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: The Path To $2,500 By 2030<blockquote>特斯拉股票：到2030年将达到2,500美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Tesla experienced explosive gains last year.</li> <li>This year, the stock has struggled, but the company is on the right track.</li> <li>Better-than-anticipated production and deliveries data suggests the stock can push higher into year-end.</li> <li>I suspect Tesla has more upside, and the stock could hit $2,500 in future years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207deb1c8eb2af0f4c49abcb18226dd4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Spencer Platt/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉去年经历了爆炸性的增长。</li><li>今年，该股表现不佳，但该公司正走在正确的轨道上。</li><li>好于预期的生产和交付数据表明该股可能会在年底前走高。</li><li>我怀疑特斯拉还有更大的上涨空间，该股未来几年可能会触及2,500美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I've been a Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)bull for a long time now. It's hard to believe, but the first time I purchased Tesla's stock was eight years ago when the share price was around a split-adjusted $30. Now, roughly 2,500% higher, I am still long Tesla and I think there is more upside in this stock. Tesla remains the leader in the ultra-lucrative EV space. The company arguably has the best products, powered by the most advanced technologies.</p><p><blockquote>我长期以来一直看好特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）。很难相信，我第一次购买特斯拉的股票是在八年前，当时股价约为分拆调整后的30美元。现在，大约上涨了2,500%，我仍然做多特斯拉，我认为这只股票还有更大的上涨空间。特斯拉仍然是利润丰厚的电动汽车领域的领导者。该公司可以说拥有最好的产品，由最先进的技术驱动。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Tesla has a unique set of competitive advantages that the company utilizes to stay ahead of its competition year after year. Tesla just put up stellar delivery and production numbers, will likely surpass analysts' expectations this quarter, and the company has enormous revenue and EPS growth potential as we advance. While we will not see Tesla shares gain another 2,500% from here any time soon, the stock can probably hit $1,000 by year-end or early next year. Moreover, Tesla shares could climb substantially higher over the next several years as well.</p><p><blockquote>此外，特斯拉拥有一系列独特的竞争优势，该公司利用这些优势年复一年地在竞争中保持领先地位。特斯拉刚刚公布了出色的交付和生产数据，本季度可能会超出分析师的预期，随着我们的发展，该公司拥有巨大的收入和每股收益增长潜力。虽然我们不会看到特斯拉股价很快再上涨2,500%，但到年底或明年初，该股可能会触及1,000美元。此外，特斯拉股价在未来几年也可能大幅攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Setup</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术设置</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabe94c8ac775d6a4113df03ad66ffdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Stockcharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Stockcharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla had a stellar run-up in 2020 and into year-end last year. Then the stock experienced a significant correction of around 40% down to the $550 level. After this giant pullback, Tesla shares came back for a successful retest of the $550 level. Since then, the stock has been in a steady, concise, upward channel. The current move higher should continue until the bullish trend breaks. However, the bullish trend is robust and could power Tesla shares to $1,000 by the end of this year. Moreover, the company has numerous favorable fundamental factors to go along with the constructive technical setup right now.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在2020年和去年年底取得了出色的增长。随后该股经历了约40%的大幅回调，跌至550美元的水平。在这次大幅回调之后，特斯拉股价卷土重来，成功重新测试550美元水平。此后，该股一直处于稳定、简洁的上升通道中。目前的上涨应该会持续到看涨趋势被打破。然而，看涨趋势强劲，可能会推动特斯拉股价在今年年底前升至1,000美元。此外，该公司目前拥有许多有利的基本面因素来配合建设性的技术设置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Edge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla continues to enjoy a multifaceted competitive advantage relative to its peers. Its approach to marketing, sales, software development, battery production, supercharging, design, development, and production provides Tesla with a significant edge relative to its competitors. Tesla designs and delivers everything from scratch, and the company remains ever focused on staying ahead of the curve innovation-wise in the EV space. However, most traditional automakers are still mainly focused on ICE vehicles and are still pivoting towards EVs. The bottom line is that the EV market is continuously gaining share over the conventional ICE market, and Tesla is the clear leader when it comes to EVs.</p><p><blockquote>相对于同行，特斯拉继续享有多方面的竞争优势。其营销、销售、软件开发、电池生产、增压、设计、开发和生产方法使特斯拉相对于竞争对手具有显着优势。特斯拉从头开始设计和交付一切，该公司始终专注于在电动汽车领域的创新方面保持领先地位。然而，大多数传统汽车制造商仍然主要专注于内燃机汽车，并且仍在转向电动汽车。最重要的是，电动汽车市场正在不断获得传统内燃机市场的份额，而特斯拉在电动汽车方面显然是领导者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global EV Market Share First Half of 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年上半年全球电动汽车市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460efe2072a471a917fc24f40e742d6e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: statista.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：statista.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Deliveries Surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量激增</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla just announced another record deliveries quarter of 241,300 vehiclesin Q3, a 20% increase over the last quarter and a remarkable 73% YoY surge. Tesla delivered a total of 9,275 Model S/X vehicles along with 232,025 mainstream Model 3/Y cars. Now, if we adjust for lease vehicles, we arrive at about 7,420 Model S/X vehicle sales and roughly 218,104 Model 3/Y vehicles sold in the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉刚刚宣布第三季度交付量再创新高，达到241,300辆，比上一季度增长20%，同比大幅增长73%。特斯拉总共交付了9,275辆Model S/X汽车以及232,025辆主流Model 3/Y汽车。现在，如果我们对租赁车辆进行调整，我们得出第三季度Model S/X汽车销量约为7,420辆，Model 3/Y汽车销量约为218,104辆。</blockquote></p><p> Last quarter (Q2 2021), Tesla sold (leases excluded) a total of about 187,163 vehicles for $9.874 billion. This sales image suggests that the average selling price (\"ASP\") across all vehicles was roughly $53K. Tesla sold approximately 1,550 Model S/X vehicles in Q2. Thus, if we approximate an ASP of $100,000 - $110,000 for Model S/X vehicle sales, we are left with about $52,000 for the Model 3/Y segment.</p><p><blockquote>上个季度（2021年第二季度），特斯拉总共售出（不包括租赁）约187,163辆汽车，价值98.74亿美元。这张销售图片表明，所有车辆的平均售价(“ASP”)约为5.3万美元。特斯拉在Q2销售了约1550辆Model S/X汽车。因此，如果我们估计Model S/X车辆销售的平均售价为100,000-110,000美元，那么Model 3/Y细分市场的平均售价约为52,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, to get an approximate number for Tesla vehicle sales in Q3, we can use an ASP of $105,000 for the 7,420 Model S/X vehicles sold in the quarter, and we can use the $52,000 ASP for the 218,104 Model 3/Y cars delivered in Q3. This estimate gives us an approximate $800 million in Model S/X sales and $11.34 billion in Model 3/Y sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要获得第三季度特斯拉汽车销量的大致数字，我们可以对该季度售出的7,420辆Model S/X汽车使用105,000美元的ASP，对218,104辆Model 3/Y汽车使用52,000美元的ASP在第三季度交付。根据这一估计，Model S/X的销售额约为8亿美元，Model 3/Y的销售额约为113.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 Earnings Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度盈利展望</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师估计：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Last quarter, Tesla delivered $1.45 in EPS, beating consensus analysts' forecasts by about $0.47 or 48%. The company announced revenues of $11.96 billion, beating estimates by $559.33 million simultaneously. Now for Q3, consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.47 and revenues of $13.49 billion. However, I think Tesla will beat these figures as well.</p><p><blockquote>上季度，特斯拉的每股收益为1.45美元，比分析师普遍预期高出约0.47美元，即48%。该公司宣布营收为119.6亿美元，同时超出预期5.5933亿美元。目前，第三季度的普遍预期是每股收益为1.47美元，营收为134.9亿美元。然而，我认为特斯拉也会超过这些数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>My Estimates:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的估计：</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49202e7907ab71b56fdc7a9bd908431d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"975\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者材料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Instead of the $13.49 billion revenues figure, I am looking for $14.74 billion in revenues, about a 9% increase over consensus expectations. Moreover, I think we can see about $1.85 in non-GAAP EPS out of Tesla in Q3, roughly 26% better than the current consensus figures imply. If Tesla makes good on its notably better-than-expected Q3 results, the stock will have a strong catalyst for a rally into year-end.</p><p><blockquote>我预计的收入不是134.9亿美元，而是147.4亿美元，比普遍预期增长约9%。此外，我认为我们可以看到特斯拉第三季度的非GAAP每股收益约为1.85美元，比当前共识数据高出约26%。如果特斯拉实现明显好于预期的第三季度业绩，该股将成为年底反弹的强大催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bright Future Ahead for Tesla</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉前途光明</b></blockquote></p><p> Estimates are moving up for Tesla. There have been 26 upward revisions relative to just one downward (FY2021) revision over the last 90 days. Still, estimates could continue to move higher.</p><p><blockquote>对特斯拉的估计正在上升。在过去90天内，有26次上调，而只有一次下调（2021财年）。尽管如此，预期可能会继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda469abb83b22a2a4505ae8d0373158\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, I want to draw your attention to the number of beats in recent quarters. Sure, Tesla's earnings remain somewhat volatile, but it's difficult to deny the better-than-anticipated earnings growth of late. Consensus estimates were for $3.61 in EPS for the last four quarters. Yet, the company's actual EPS numbers came in at $3.94, an average beat of around 9% over consensus estimates. We already see estimates that are substantial increases on a YoY basis, but I think that results can continue to come in stronger than anticipated (by about 10-20%) as we advance.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我想提请您注意最近几个季度的节拍数量。当然，特斯拉的盈利仍然有些波动，但很难否认最近好于预期的盈利增长。市场普遍预期过去四个季度的每股收益为3.61美元。然而，该公司的实际每股收益为3.94美元，平均比市场普遍预期高出9%左右。我们已经看到了同比大幅增长的估计，但我认为随着我们的进展，结果可能会继续强于预期（约10-20%）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb9918909984b4de589a4266c10f2a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3215da27370b6e97c23883ece163f6b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We see expectations for significant EPS and revenue gains in future years for Tesla. While the stock may seem relatively expensive right now, shares should become increasingly less costly as EPS surge in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计特斯拉未来几年的每股收益和收入将大幅增长。虽然该股目前看起来相对昂贵，但随着未来几年每股收益的飙升，该股的成本应该会越来越低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4392b7b8eeb3a6fc412f6cd79fe9e44e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: seekingalpha.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：seekingalpha.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here is what Tesla's EPS, P/E ratio, and share price could look like in future years.</p><p><blockquote>以下是特斯拉未来几年的每股收益、市盈率和股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e110af6b9747752c5a540bdb00c5a4\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's Material</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者材料</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla's steady and robust EPS growth trend should continue, and I expect the company's share price could reach $2,500 or higher by the end of the decade. Now, some market participants could argue that these stock price projections are optimistic. However, I think that these projections may be relatively modest. First, the company could deliver higher EPS than I anticipate in future years, and second, Tesla's P/E ratio could remain elevated for longer.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉稳定强劲的每股收益增长趋势应该会持续下去，我预计该公司的股价到本世纪末可能会达到2,500美元或更高。现在，一些市场参与者可能会认为这些股价预测是乐观的。然而，我认为这些预测可能相对温和。首先，该公司未来几年的每股收益可能会高于我的预期，其次，特斯拉的市盈率可能会在更长时间内保持较高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Due to Tesla's unique growth dynamic, the only company that can compare to Tesla is Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), in my view. Amazon's current valuation is what a more mature Tesla valuation could become. Incidentally, Amazon currently trades at about 58 times EPS, exactly where I have my 2029 Tesla P/E ratio pegged. Also, the projected stock price appreciation is only 220% from current levels, which is relatively modest if we consider the number of years.</p><p><blockquote>由于特斯拉独特的增长动力，在我看来，唯一可以与特斯拉相比的公司是亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）。亚马逊目前的估值是更成熟的特斯拉估值可能达到的水平。顺便说一句，亚马逊目前的市盈率约为58倍，这正是我对2029年特斯拉市盈率的预期。此外，预计股价较当前水平仅上涨220%，如果考虑年数，这一涨幅相对较小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Tesla's $2,500 Price Target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉2,500美元目标价面临风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course, when you are talking about Tesla, there are risks to consider. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $50 per share by 2030, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there is the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to increase EPS nearly tenfold by 2030. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, I believe one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.</p><p><blockquote>当然，当你谈论特斯拉时，有风险需要考虑。虽然我估计到2030年该公司每股收益可接近50美元，但该公司目前距离这样的数字还很远。因此，特斯拉存在无法实现我所设想的盈利增长的风险。需求放缓、竞争加剧、供应问题、增长下降和其他变量都是我们在押注特斯拉到2030年每股收益增长近十倍之前应该考虑的风险。严重的担忧可能会导致特斯拉的估值下降，如果出现任何严重问题，该公司的股价甚至可能出现逆转。因此，我认为在投入任何资金进行特斯拉投资之前，应该仔细考虑风险。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459378-tesla-path-to-2500-by-2030\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459378-tesla-path-to-2500-by-2030","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188785088","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla experienced explosive gains last year.\nThis year, the stock has struggled, but the company is on the right track.\nBetter-than-anticipated production and deliveries data suggests the stock can push higher into year-end.\nI suspect Tesla has more upside, and the stock could hit $2,500 in future years.\n\nSpencer Platt/Getty Images News\nI've been a Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)bull for a long time now. It's hard to believe, but the first time I purchased Tesla's stock was eight years ago when the share price was around a split-adjusted $30. Now, roughly 2,500% higher, I am still long Tesla and I think there is more upside in this stock. Tesla remains the leader in the ultra-lucrative EV space. The company arguably has the best products, powered by the most advanced technologies.\nAdditionally, Tesla has a unique set of competitive advantages that the company utilizes to stay ahead of its competition year after year. Tesla just put up stellar delivery and production numbers, will likely surpass analysts' expectations this quarter, and the company has enormous revenue and EPS growth potential as we advance. While we will not see Tesla shares gain another 2,500% from here any time soon, the stock can probably hit $1,000 by year-end or early next year. Moreover, Tesla shares could climb substantially higher over the next several years as well.\nTechnical Setup\nSource: Stockcharts.com\nTesla had a stellar run-up in 2020 and into year-end last year. Then the stock experienced a significant correction of around 40% down to the $550 level. After this giant pullback, Tesla shares came back for a successful retest of the $550 level. Since then, the stock has been in a steady, concise, upward channel. The current move higher should continue until the bullish trend breaks. However, the bullish trend is robust and could power Tesla shares to $1,000 by the end of this year. Moreover, the company has numerous favorable fundamental factors to go along with the constructive technical setup right now.\nCompetitive Edge\nTesla continues to enjoy a multifaceted competitive advantage relative to its peers. Its approach to marketing, sales, software development, battery production, supercharging, design, development, and production provides Tesla with a significant edge relative to its competitors. Tesla designs and delivers everything from scratch, and the company remains ever focused on staying ahead of the curve innovation-wise in the EV space. However, most traditional automakers are still mainly focused on ICE vehicles and are still pivoting towards EVs. The bottom line is that the EV market is continuously gaining share over the conventional ICE market, and Tesla is the clear leader when it comes to EVs.\nGlobal EV Market Share First Half of 2021\nSource: statista.com\nDeliveries Surge\nTesla just announced another record deliveries quarter of 241,300 vehiclesin Q3, a 20% increase over the last quarter and a remarkable 73% YoY surge. Tesla delivered a total of 9,275 Model S/X vehicles along with 232,025 mainstream Model 3/Y cars. Now, if we adjust for lease vehicles, we arrive at about 7,420 Model S/X vehicle sales and roughly 218,104 Model 3/Y vehicles sold in the third quarter.\nLast quarter (Q2 2021), Tesla sold (leases excluded) a total of about 187,163 vehicles for $9.874 billion. This sales image suggests that the average selling price (\"ASP\") across all vehicles was roughly $53K. Tesla sold approximately 1,550 Model S/X vehicles in Q2. Thus, if we approximate an ASP of $100,000 - $110,000 for Model S/X vehicle sales, we are left with about $52,000 for the Model 3/Y segment.\nTherefore, to get an approximate number for Tesla vehicle sales in Q3, we can use an ASP of $105,000 for the 7,420 Model S/X vehicles sold in the quarter, and we can use the $52,000 ASP for the 218,104 Model 3/Y cars delivered in Q3. This estimate gives us an approximate $800 million in Model S/X sales and $11.34 billion in Model 3/Y sales.\nQ3 Earnings Outlook\nAnalysts Estimates:\nLast quarter, Tesla delivered $1.45 in EPS, beating consensus analysts' forecasts by about $0.47 or 48%. The company announced revenues of $11.96 billion, beating estimates by $559.33 million simultaneously. Now for Q3, consensus estimates are for EPS of $1.47 and revenues of $13.49 billion. However, I think Tesla will beat these figures as well.\nMy Estimates:\nSource: Author's Material\nInstead of the $13.49 billion revenues figure, I am looking for $14.74 billion in revenues, about a 9% increase over consensus expectations. Moreover, I think we can see about $1.85 in non-GAAP EPS out of Tesla in Q3, roughly 26% better than the current consensus figures imply. If Tesla makes good on its notably better-than-expected Q3 results, the stock will have a strong catalyst for a rally into year-end.\nBright Future Ahead for Tesla\nEstimates are moving up for Tesla. There have been 26 upward revisions relative to just one downward (FY2021) revision over the last 90 days. Still, estimates could continue to move higher.\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nFirst, I want to draw your attention to the number of beats in recent quarters. Sure, Tesla's earnings remain somewhat volatile, but it's difficult to deny the better-than-anticipated earnings growth of late. Consensus estimates were for $3.61 in EPS for the last four quarters. Yet, the company's actual EPS numbers came in at $3.94, an average beat of around 9% over consensus estimates. We already see estimates that are substantial increases on a YoY basis, but I think that results can continue to come in stronger than anticipated (by about 10-20%) as we advance.\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nWe see expectations for significant EPS and revenue gains in future years for Tesla. While the stock may seem relatively expensive right now, shares should become increasingly less costly as EPS surge in coming years.\nSource: seekingalpha.com\nHere is what Tesla's EPS, P/E ratio, and share price could look like in future years.\nSource: Author's Material\nThe Bottom Line\nTesla's steady and robust EPS growth trend should continue, and I expect the company's share price could reach $2,500 or higher by the end of the decade. Now, some market participants could argue that these stock price projections are optimistic. However, I think that these projections may be relatively modest. First, the company could deliver higher EPS than I anticipate in future years, and second, Tesla's P/E ratio could remain elevated for longer.\nDue to Tesla's unique growth dynamic, the only company that can compare to Tesla is Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), in my view. Amazon's current valuation is what a more mature Tesla valuation could become. Incidentally, Amazon currently trades at about 58 times EPS, exactly where I have my 2029 Tesla P/E ratio pegged. Also, the projected stock price appreciation is only 220% from current levels, which is relatively modest if we consider the number of years.\nRisks to Tesla's $2,500 Price Target\nOf course, when you are talking about Tesla, there are risks to consider. While I estimate that the company can earn close to $50 per share by 2030, the company is very far from such figures right now. Therefore, there is the risk that Tesla will not illustrate the kind of earnings growth I envision. A slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to increase EPS nearly tenfold by 2030. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, I believe one should consider the risks carefully before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3374,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/826711267"}
精彩评论