Tubaron
2021-10-22
YOLO
‘FOMO’ has made lots of money for stock investors but now ‘YARO’ is the market move<blockquote>“FOMO”为股票投资者赚了很多钱，但现在“YARO”成为市场走势</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":851164997,"tweetId":"851164997","gmtCreate":1634882941573,"gmtModify":1634882941679,"author":{"id":3579321262958123,"idStr":"3579321262958123","authorId":3579321262958123,"authorIdStr":"3579321262958123","name":"Tubaron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5af676245824ca64a40012bbae2dca16","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":21,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>YOLO</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>YOLO</p></body></html>","text":"YOLO","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851164997","repostId":1185062694,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185062694","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634865812,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185062694?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-22 09:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"‘FOMO’ has made lots of money for stock investors but now ‘YARO’ is the market move<blockquote>“FOMO”为股票投资者赚了很多钱，但现在“YARO”成为市场走势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185062694","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Yet Another Reopening Trade (YARO) focuses on quality companies and avoids frothy technology and ‘i","content":"<p>‘Yet Another Reopening Trade (YARO) focuses on quality companies and avoids frothy technology and ‘innovation’ stocks</p><p><blockquote>“另一个重新开放的交易（YARO）专注于优质公司，避免泡沫技术和“创新”股票</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1049f347eda58620bbbdada442c87ff1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch照片插图/iStockphoto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the ravages of the latest COVID variant settle, stock markets are bracing for Yet Another Reopening trade (YARO).</p><p><blockquote>随着最新新冠病毒变种的破坏平息，股市正准备迎接另一次重新开放交易（YARO）。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, here we go with the expert definition and nuances of the word “transitory” and the debate that follows as it applies to inflation. We have argued that the North Star in this current equity regime is an expansion of the profits cycle. The challenge in this period has become the start-stop-and-start-again motion of the reopening as the complexities of COVID/supply chain events warp a traditional profits rebound.</p><p><blockquote>是的，这里我们来看看专家对“暂时性”一词的定义和细微差别，以及随之而来的关于它适用于通货膨胀的争论。我们认为，当前股权制度中的北极星是利润周期的扩张。由于COVID/供应链事件的复杂性扭曲了传统的利润反弹，这一时期的挑战已经成为重新开放的开始-停止-重新开始的运动。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d016a60ef5335fc00a6ae15099f106\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We continue to make a case for investing in higher quality firms to better navigate this moment while limiting exposure to innovation firms to reduce risk. Secular highs in the valuation of innovation shares are a source of risk as interest rates reverse course and Fed-watching returns to prime time viewing.</p><p><blockquote>我们继续为投资更高质量的公司提供理由，以更好地应对这一时刻，同时限制对创新公司的投资以降低风险。随着利率逆转和美联储观察回归黄金时段，创新股估值的长期高位是风险来源。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will shift their gaze again to a tapering tantrum. In this back and forth state of COVID-on, COVID-off, chasing the tails of the tape will leave investors tired as they frantically recalibrate their portfolios. The focus on higher quality with a valuation bias should offer the best path forward as investors weigh the chances of Yet Another Reopening Trade.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将再次将目光转向逐渐减弱的脾气。在这种COVID-on、COVID-off的来回状态下，追逐磁带的尾部会让投资者在疯狂地重新调整投资组合时感到疲倦。随着投资者权衡再次重新开放交易的可能性，对更高质量和估值偏差的关注应该会提供最佳的前进道路。</blockquote></p><p> This see-saw action between weaker-than-expected inflation and liquidity-driven reflation fears has drained investors this cycle as we head into a likely choppy fourth quarter. As the global economy has started to reopen, albeit in a mixed fashion, sales growth in the U.S. has rebounded to a solid 7.4% year over year with the latest reporting.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们进入可能动荡的第四季度，弱于预期的通胀和流动性驱动的通货再膨胀担忧之间的拉锯战已经耗尽了投资者本周期的资金。随着全球经济开始重新开放，尽管方式参差不齐，但根据最新报告，美国的销售额同比增长已反弹至7.4%。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the early stage gains are most likely behind us. Investors should position for continued expansion and look to firms with higher profit margin and better balance sheets .</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，早期的涨幅很可能已经过去了。投资者应该做好继续扩张的准备，并关注利润率更高、资产负债表更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, high quality firms remain notably discounted as investors ignored basics such as margins and balance sheets to chase after liquidity-driven, innovation-centric names during the lock-down. This was further exacerbated as the vaccine/reopening surge inflated deep cyclicals.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，由于投资者在锁定期间忽视了利润率和资产负债表等基本因素，转而追逐流动性驱动、以创新为中心的公司，优质公司仍然受到明显折扣。随着疫苗/重新开放激增推高了深度周期性，这种情况进一步加剧。</blockquote></p><p> Combined, these elements explain why higher quality firms are selling at historical discounts. Relative to low quality, high-quality firms are trading at EV/Sales that are 1.4, 1.8, and 1.1 standard deviations below their historical averages for large-, mid- and small-cap firms, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>综合起来，这些因素解释了为什么高质量的公司以历史折扣出售。相对于低质量公司，高质量公司的EV/销售额分别比大型、中型和小型公司的历史平均水平低1.4、1.8和1.1个标准差。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320d91f01ccd69e7974e784e94bcae06\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The reopening fallout should also continue to place upward pressure on rates, therefore adversely impacting aggressive growth, innovation shares.</p><p><blockquote>重新开放的影响也将继续给利率带来上行压力，从而对激进的增长和创新股产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> COVID infection rates have begun to ebb, signaling a shift in markets from a narrow economy to a reopening posture, again. To no surprise, Fed-watching has resurfaced as equities with rich multiples require low/favorable interest rate backdrop to thrive. A full-on reopening of the global economy places aggressive growth firms trading at historic highs at risk.</p><p><blockquote>COVID感染率已经开始下降，标志着市场再次从狭窄的经济转向重新开放的姿态。毫不奇怪，随着市盈率高的股票需要低/有利的利率背景才能蓬勃发展，对美联储的关注重新浮出水面。全球经济的全面重新开放使处于历史高位的激进成长型公司面临风险。</blockquote></p><p> We have seen rate risk for innovation baskets as they tumbled when rates rose in September. Historical data underscores another example of equity market performance sensitivity to interest rate swings. In a short span from the end of July to the end of September, yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to 1.46% from 1.18%. The equity-market fallout was quite direct — the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.53%, the growth index tumbled 1.10% and the technology sector shed 1.23%. Notice that as fears of the delta variant appear to be subsiding and vaccination rates began rising, investors’ focus has returned to reopening and therefore central bank policy.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经看到了创新篮子的利率风险，因为它们在9月份利率上升时暴跌。历史数据强调了股市表现对利率波动敏感性的另一个例子。从7月底到9月底的短时间内，10年期国债收益率从1.18%攀升至1.46%。股市的影响相当直接——纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.53%，增长指数下跌1.10%，科技板块下跌1.23%。请注意，随着对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧似乎正在消退，疫苗接种率开始上升，投资者的注意力又回到了重新开放以及央行政策上。</blockquote></p><p> As U.S. businesses and schools reopen, the focus back to liquidity will continue to fuel the fears of nervous market participants struggling to weigh the durability of the Fed liquidity support. This nervousness temporarily faded as COVID variants attacked sizable regions within the states. If the jump in innovation stocks began with a historic surge in liquidity, investors are rightfully concerned that any attempt to taper the market support will have adverse spillover effects on the valuation of the most aggressive parts of the equity landscape.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国企业和学校重新开放，对流动性的关注将继续加剧紧张的市场参与者的担忧，他们正在努力权衡美联储流动性支持的持久性。随着COVID变种攻击各州内相当大的地区，这种紧张情绪暂时消退。如果创新股的上涨始于流动性的历史性激增，那么投资者有理由担心，任何削弱市场支持的尝试都会对股市中最激进部分的估值产生不利的溢出效应。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The innovation sector may be the epicenter of the market focus as interest rates become turbulent. Figure 2, below, demonstrates the high valuation of innovation firms as represented by the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF.At the end of August, the ARK Next Gen Internet ETF was trading at 13.4x EV/Sales vs. 3.6x EV/Sales for the large- and midcap markets.</p><p><blockquote>随着利率变得动荡，创新板块可能成为市场关注的中心。下图2显示了以ARK下一代互联网ETF为代表的创新公司的高估值。截至8月底，ARK Next Gen Internet ETF的EV/销售额为13.4倍，而大中型市场的EV/销售额为3.6倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c6defec31004783d4d04fa0456eed7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> More broadly, the technology sector is also trading at extremely rich levels. On a historical basis, the smaller-company technology sector is trading with a 85% premium to the broader market compared to long term 33% premium on a trailing EV/Sales basis. The large- and midcap technology sector is trading with a 113% premium to the broader market vs. the 58% historical premium.</p><p><blockquote>更广泛地说，科技行业的交易水平也非常高。从历史上看，小公司科技行业的交易价格较大盘溢价85%，而按历史EV/销售额计算，长期溢价为33%。大中型科技板块的交易价格较大盘溢价113%，而历史溢价为58%。</blockquote></p><p> Although shy of the peak multiples seen in February, smaller innovation stocks trade in excess of 20x sales and large-caps north of 19x sales. During the selloff in September, we witnessed large-cap innovation stocks weaken by more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管低于2月份的峰值市盈率，但规模较小的创新股的市盈率超过20倍，大盘股的市盈率超过19倍。在9月份的抛售中，我们目睹了大盘创新股下跌超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: As the U.S. economy continues to reopen, it becomes clearer that the highest expectation firms cannot climb much higher or maintain the existing premia from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>底线：随着美国经济继续重新开放，越来越明显的是，最高预期的公司无法攀升得更高或维持当前水平的现有溢价。</blockquote></p><p> The North Star to the current environment remains an expanding profits cycle that will continue to force a valuation focus. Innovation firms will likely struggle as the reopening takes hold and impacts U.S. interest rates adversely. Importantly, looking to firms with superior margins and better balance sheets will become more prominent as this recovering profit cycle ages.</p><p><blockquote>北极星目前的环境仍然是一个不断扩大的利润周期，这将继续迫使人们关注估值。随着重新开放并对美国利率产生不利影响，创新公司可能会陷入困境。重要的是，随着利润复苏周期的延长，寻找利润率更高、资产负债表更好的公司将变得更加突出。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>‘FOMO’ has made lots of money for stock investors but now ‘YARO’ is the market move<blockquote>“FOMO”为股票投资者赚了很多钱，但现在“YARO”成为市场走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n‘FOMO’ has made lots of money for stock investors but now ‘YARO’ is the market move<blockquote>“FOMO”为股票投资者赚了很多钱，但现在“YARO”成为市场走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-22 09:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>‘Yet Another Reopening Trade (YARO) focuses on quality companies and avoids frothy technology and ‘innovation’ stocks</p><p><blockquote>“另一个重新开放的交易（YARO）专注于优质公司，避免泡沫技术和“创新”股票</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1049f347eda58620bbbdada442c87ff1\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch照片插图/iStockphoto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the ravages of the latest COVID variant settle, stock markets are bracing for Yet Another Reopening trade (YARO).</p><p><blockquote>随着最新新冠病毒变种的破坏平息，股市正准备迎接另一次重新开放交易（YARO）。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, here we go with the expert definition and nuances of the word “transitory” and the debate that follows as it applies to inflation. We have argued that the North Star in this current equity regime is an expansion of the profits cycle. The challenge in this period has become the start-stop-and-start-again motion of the reopening as the complexities of COVID/supply chain events warp a traditional profits rebound.</p><p><blockquote>是的，这里我们来看看专家对“暂时性”一词的定义和细微差别，以及随之而来的关于它适用于通货膨胀的争论。我们认为，当前股权制度中的北极星是利润周期的扩张。由于COVID/供应链事件的复杂性扭曲了传统的利润反弹，这一时期的挑战已经成为重新开放的开始-停止-重新开始的运动。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8d016a60ef5335fc00a6ae15099f106\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We continue to make a case for investing in higher quality firms to better navigate this moment while limiting exposure to innovation firms to reduce risk. Secular highs in the valuation of innovation shares are a source of risk as interest rates reverse course and Fed-watching returns to prime time viewing.</p><p><blockquote>我们继续为投资更高质量的公司提供理由，以更好地应对这一时刻，同时限制对创新公司的投资以降低风险。随着利率逆转和美联储观察回归黄金时段，创新股估值的长期高位是风险来源。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will shift their gaze again to a tapering tantrum. In this back and forth state of COVID-on, COVID-off, chasing the tails of the tape will leave investors tired as they frantically recalibrate their portfolios. The focus on higher quality with a valuation bias should offer the best path forward as investors weigh the chances of Yet Another Reopening Trade.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将再次将目光转向逐渐减弱的脾气。在这种COVID-on、COVID-off的来回状态下，追逐磁带的尾部会让投资者在疯狂地重新调整投资组合时感到疲倦。随着投资者权衡再次重新开放交易的可能性，对更高质量和估值偏差的关注应该会提供最佳的前进道路。</blockquote></p><p> This see-saw action between weaker-than-expected inflation and liquidity-driven reflation fears has drained investors this cycle as we head into a likely choppy fourth quarter. As the global economy has started to reopen, albeit in a mixed fashion, sales growth in the U.S. has rebounded to a solid 7.4% year over year with the latest reporting.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们进入可能动荡的第四季度，弱于预期的通胀和流动性驱动的通货再膨胀担忧之间的拉锯战已经耗尽了投资者本周期的资金。随着全球经济开始重新开放，尽管方式参差不齐，但根据最新报告，美国的销售额同比增长已反弹至7.4%。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the early stage gains are most likely behind us. Investors should position for continued expansion and look to firms with higher profit margin and better balance sheets .</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，早期的涨幅很可能已经过去了。投资者应该做好继续扩张的准备，并关注利润率更高、资产负债表更好的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, high quality firms remain notably discounted as investors ignored basics such as margins and balance sheets to chase after liquidity-driven, innovation-centric names during the lock-down. This was further exacerbated as the vaccine/reopening surge inflated deep cyclicals.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，由于投资者在锁定期间忽视了利润率和资产负债表等基本因素，转而追逐流动性驱动、以创新为中心的公司，优质公司仍然受到明显折扣。随着疫苗/重新开放激增推高了深度周期性，这种情况进一步加剧。</blockquote></p><p> Combined, these elements explain why higher quality firms are selling at historical discounts. Relative to low quality, high-quality firms are trading at EV/Sales that are 1.4, 1.8, and 1.1 standard deviations below their historical averages for large-, mid- and small-cap firms, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>综合起来，这些因素解释了为什么高质量的公司以历史折扣出售。相对于低质量公司，高质量公司的EV/销售额分别比大型、中型和小型公司的历史平均水平低1.4、1.8和1.1个标准差。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320d91f01ccd69e7974e784e94bcae06\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The reopening fallout should also continue to place upward pressure on rates, therefore adversely impacting aggressive growth, innovation shares.</p><p><blockquote>重新开放的影响也将继续给利率带来上行压力，从而对激进的增长和创新股产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> COVID infection rates have begun to ebb, signaling a shift in markets from a narrow economy to a reopening posture, again. To no surprise, Fed-watching has resurfaced as equities with rich multiples require low/favorable interest rate backdrop to thrive. A full-on reopening of the global economy places aggressive growth firms trading at historic highs at risk.</p><p><blockquote>COVID感染率已经开始下降，标志着市场再次从狭窄的经济转向重新开放的姿态。毫不奇怪，随着市盈率高的股票需要低/有利的利率背景才能蓬勃发展，对美联储的关注重新浮出水面。全球经济的全面重新开放使处于历史高位的激进成长型公司面临风险。</blockquote></p><p> We have seen rate risk for innovation baskets as they tumbled when rates rose in September. Historical data underscores another example of equity market performance sensitivity to interest rate swings. In a short span from the end of July to the end of September, yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to 1.46% from 1.18%. The equity-market fallout was quite direct — the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.53%, the growth index tumbled 1.10% and the technology sector shed 1.23%. Notice that as fears of the delta variant appear to be subsiding and vaccination rates began rising, investors’ focus has returned to reopening and therefore central bank policy.</p><p><blockquote>我们已经看到了创新篮子的利率风险，因为它们在9月份利率上升时暴跌。历史数据强调了股市表现对利率波动敏感性的另一个例子。从7月底到9月底的短时间内，10年期国债收益率从1.18%攀升至1.46%。股市的影响相当直接——纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.53%，增长指数下跌1.10%，科技板块下跌1.23%。请注意，随着对德尔塔变异毒株的担忧似乎正在消退，疫苗接种率开始上升，投资者的注意力又回到了重新开放以及央行政策上。</blockquote></p><p> As U.S. businesses and schools reopen, the focus back to liquidity will continue to fuel the fears of nervous market participants struggling to weigh the durability of the Fed liquidity support. This nervousness temporarily faded as COVID variants attacked sizable regions within the states. If the jump in innovation stocks began with a historic surge in liquidity, investors are rightfully concerned that any attempt to taper the market support will have adverse spillover effects on the valuation of the most aggressive parts of the equity landscape.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国企业和学校重新开放，对流动性的关注将继续加剧紧张的市场参与者的担忧，他们正在努力权衡美联储流动性支持的持久性。随着COVID变种攻击各州内相当大的地区，这种紧张情绪暂时消退。如果创新股的上涨始于流动性的历史性激增，那么投资者有理由担心，任何削弱市场支持的尝试都会对股市中最激进部分的估值产生不利的溢出效应。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The innovation sector may be the epicenter of the market focus as interest rates become turbulent. Figure 2, below, demonstrates the high valuation of innovation firms as represented by the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF.At the end of August, the ARK Next Gen Internet ETF was trading at 13.4x EV/Sales vs. 3.6x EV/Sales for the large- and midcap markets.</p><p><blockquote>随着利率变得动荡，创新板块可能成为市场关注的中心。下图2显示了以ARK下一代互联网ETF为代表的创新公司的高估值。截至8月底，ARK Next Gen Internet ETF的EV/销售额为13.4倍，而大中型市场的EV/销售额为3.6倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c6defec31004783d4d04fa0456eed7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> More broadly, the technology sector is also trading at extremely rich levels. On a historical basis, the smaller-company technology sector is trading with a 85% premium to the broader market compared to long term 33% premium on a trailing EV/Sales basis. The large- and midcap technology sector is trading with a 113% premium to the broader market vs. the 58% historical premium.</p><p><blockquote>更广泛地说，科技行业的交易水平也非常高。从历史上看，小公司科技行业的交易价格较大盘溢价85%，而按历史EV/销售额计算，长期溢价为33%。大中型科技板块的交易价格较大盘溢价113%，而历史溢价为58%。</blockquote></p><p> Although shy of the peak multiples seen in February, smaller innovation stocks trade in excess of 20x sales and large-caps north of 19x sales. During the selloff in September, we witnessed large-cap innovation stocks weaken by more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管低于2月份的峰值市盈率，但规模较小的创新股的市盈率超过20倍，大盘股的市盈率超过19倍。在9月份的抛售中，我们目睹了大盘创新股下跌超过5%。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: As the U.S. economy continues to reopen, it becomes clearer that the highest expectation firms cannot climb much higher or maintain the existing premia from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>底线：随着美国经济继续重新开放，越来越明显的是，最高预期的公司无法攀升得更高或维持当前水平的现有溢价。</blockquote></p><p> The North Star to the current environment remains an expanding profits cycle that will continue to force a valuation focus. Innovation firms will likely struggle as the reopening takes hold and impacts U.S. interest rates adversely. Importantly, looking to firms with superior margins and better balance sheets will become more prominent as this recovering profit cycle ages.</p><p><blockquote>北极星目前的环境仍然是一个不断扩大的利润周期，这将继续迫使人们关注估值。随着重新开放并对美国利率产生不利影响，创新公司可能会陷入困境。重要的是，随着利润复苏周期的延长，寻找利润率更高、资产负债表更好的公司将变得更加突出。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fomo-has-made-lots-of-money-for-stock-investors-but-now-yaro-is-the-market-move-11634851883?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COMP":"Compass, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fomo-has-made-lots-of-money-for-stock-investors-but-now-yaro-is-the-market-move-11634851883?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185062694","content_text":"‘Yet Another Reopening Trade (YARO) focuses on quality companies and avoids frothy technology and ‘innovation’ stocks\nMarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto\nAs the ravages of the latest COVID variant settle, stock markets are bracing for Yet Another Reopening trade (YARO).\nYes, here we go with the expert definition and nuances of the word “transitory” and the debate that follows as it applies to inflation. We have argued that the North Star in this current equity regime is an expansion of the profits cycle. The challenge in this period has become the start-stop-and-start-again motion of the reopening as the complexities of COVID/supply chain events warp a traditional profits rebound.\n\nWe continue to make a case for investing in higher quality firms to better navigate this moment while limiting exposure to innovation firms to reduce risk. Secular highs in the valuation of innovation shares are a source of risk as interest rates reverse course and Fed-watching returns to prime time viewing.\nInvestors will shift their gaze again to a tapering tantrum. In this back and forth state of COVID-on, COVID-off, chasing the tails of the tape will leave investors tired as they frantically recalibrate their portfolios. The focus on higher quality with a valuation bias should offer the best path forward as investors weigh the chances of Yet Another Reopening Trade.\nThis see-saw action between weaker-than-expected inflation and liquidity-driven reflation fears has drained investors this cycle as we head into a likely choppy fourth quarter. As the global economy has started to reopen, albeit in a mixed fashion, sales growth in the U.S. has rebounded to a solid 7.4% year over year with the latest reporting.\nIn other words, the early stage gains are most likely behind us. Investors should position for continued expansion and look to firms with higher profit margin and better balance sheets .\nImportantly, high quality firms remain notably discounted as investors ignored basics such as margins and balance sheets to chase after liquidity-driven, innovation-centric names during the lock-down. This was further exacerbated as the vaccine/reopening surge inflated deep cyclicals.\nCombined, these elements explain why higher quality firms are selling at historical discounts. Relative to low quality, high-quality firms are trading at EV/Sales that are 1.4, 1.8, and 1.1 standard deviations below their historical averages for large-, mid- and small-cap firms, respectively.\n\nThe reopening fallout should also continue to place upward pressure on rates, therefore adversely impacting aggressive growth, innovation shares.\nCOVID infection rates have begun to ebb, signaling a shift in markets from a narrow economy to a reopening posture, again. To no surprise, Fed-watching has resurfaced as equities with rich multiples require low/favorable interest rate backdrop to thrive. A full-on reopening of the global economy places aggressive growth firms trading at historic highs at risk.\nWe have seen rate risk for innovation baskets as they tumbled when rates rose in September. Historical data underscores another example of equity market performance sensitivity to interest rate swings. In a short span from the end of July to the end of September, yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to 1.46% from 1.18%. The equity-market fallout was quite direct — the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.53%, the growth index tumbled 1.10% and the technology sector shed 1.23%. Notice that as fears of the delta variant appear to be subsiding and vaccination rates began rising, investors’ focus has returned to reopening and therefore central bank policy.\nAs U.S. businesses and schools reopen, the focus back to liquidity will continue to fuel the fears of nervous market participants struggling to weigh the durability of the Fed liquidity support. This nervousness temporarily faded as COVID variants attacked sizable regions within the states. If the jump in innovation stocks began with a historic surge in liquidity, investors are rightfully concerned that any attempt to taper the market support will have adverse spillover effects on the valuation of the most aggressive parts of the equity landscape.\nThe innovation sector may be the epicenter of the market focus as interest rates become turbulent. Figure 2, below, demonstrates the high valuation of innovation firms as represented by the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF.At the end of August, the ARK Next Gen Internet ETF was trading at 13.4x EV/Sales vs. 3.6x EV/Sales for the large- and midcap markets.\n\nMore broadly, the technology sector is also trading at extremely rich levels. On a historical basis, the smaller-company technology sector is trading with a 85% premium to the broader market compared to long term 33% premium on a trailing EV/Sales basis. The large- and midcap technology sector is trading with a 113% premium to the broader market vs. the 58% historical premium.\nAlthough shy of the peak multiples seen in February, smaller innovation stocks trade in excess of 20x sales and large-caps north of 19x sales. During the selloff in September, we witnessed large-cap innovation stocks weaken by more than 5%.\nBottom line: As the U.S. economy continues to reopen, it becomes clearer that the highest expectation firms cannot climb much higher or maintain the existing premia from current levels.\nThe North Star to the current environment remains an expanding profits cycle that will continue to force a valuation focus. Innovation firms will likely struggle as the reopening takes hold and impacts U.S. interest rates adversely. Importantly, looking to firms with superior margins and better balance sheets will become more prominent as this recovering profit cycle ages.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"COMP":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/851164997"}
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