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2021-09-28
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AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD和英特尔提供类似的回报——关注风险</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":862191837,"tweetId":"862191837","gmtCreate":1632841633948,"gmtModify":1632841634034,"author":{"id":3580732020483404,"idStr":"3580732020483404","authorId":3580732020483404,"authorIdStr":"3580732020483404","name":"Olympous","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8af001d967b1e9c67ad207e8390558","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":20,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like please</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like please</p></body></html>","text":"Like please","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862191837","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD和英特尔提供类似的回报——关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证获得丰厚的回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC和AMD将在未来几年实现高个位数回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HQuality Video/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote></p><p> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我确实认为，在选择这些股票时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，面对英特尔的执行风险，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择AMD，因为AMD的估值低迷和对代工厂的依赖是主要的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Total Return Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总回报预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.</p><p><blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测2025年的回报。AMD预计今年的每股收益为2.50美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，这使我们预计2025年每股收益为5.65美元。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.</p><p><blockquote>目前，AMD的净利润是其净利润的40倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年发生变化。首先，AMD过去的估值较低，其次，规模增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来多次压缩的合理性。如下图所示，去年该股的平均市盈率高达30多倍，而目前的预期市盈率为41倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到AMD成熟时的多重压缩，我相信2025年公平值倍数为25--与英特尔这样的低成长性同行相比，这仍然是一笔巨大的溢价，但同时对于更成熟的AMD而言，似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025年的目标价为141美元，上涨潜力接近40%，这使我们的年回报率约为8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote></p><p> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年的每股收益为4.80美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求不断增长，以及英特尔的代工业务应该在2025年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为5.20美元。如今，INTC的预期市盈率仅为11倍，但无论是绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，这反过来又使我们的目标价为69美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨6.5%。加上2.5%的股息收益率，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生9%的年回报率。因此，在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但人们当然可以认为输入应该不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资产负债表和股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:</p><p><blockquote>按当前价格计算，英特尔提供的股息收益率为2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不令人意外，因为AMD在最近的过去并没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔还通过股票回购支付了数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股票数量就下降了11%，而AMD的股票数量在同一时间内上涨了20%以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.</p><p><blockquote>这是AMD案例中股票发行的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管工资，而英特尔股票数量的下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD的股票数量稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果AMD未来继续迅速稀释股东，回报可能会受到打击。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的资产负债表相当干净，37亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远高于1000亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不是特别有意义。与此同时，根据其10-Q报告，英特尔拥有80亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有360亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Risks Do You Want To Take On?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你想冒什么风险？</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报略高于AMD，但由于预测总回报没有重大差异，投资者可能希望根据其他因素做出投资决策，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于该公司在未来的贸易战中免受麻烦。由于政府支持芯片生产在岸，英特尔可能会通过这些努力从有利的政治和补贴中受益。英特尔寻求通过IFS成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们审视TSM时，我们发现如果做得好，这可能是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零增长的IFS确实具有非常稳健的前景，并且可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的足迹可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致在这种情况下出现多重扩张顺风。</blockquote></p><p> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，地缘政治不是投资英特尔的关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，并且交易成本非常低廉，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得AMD或英伟达等同行获得了市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将其首席执行官换成了更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格（Pat Gelsinger），英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这仍然是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD在执行力方面非常出色，这似乎并不是该公司的主要风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD的估值相当高，超过净利润的40倍，而且这种情况可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔则更不受此影响，因为无论如何都没有太多的增长被定价。如果AMD的股价跌至净利润的30倍，在其他条件相同的情况下，其股价将下跌25%以上，而且由于几个月前股价还在70美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote></p><p> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD的利润率可能会压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长及其估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.</p><p><blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择一家执行风险较低但估值大幅下跌且更容易受到地缘政治风险的公司，或者是否要选择一家相当便宜且估值较低的股票。估值下行，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote></p><p> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.</p><p><blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微倾向于英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示AMD是一家糟糕的公司。恰恰相反，我们在6月份发布了一篇关于AMD的看涨文章，此后股价上涨了30%。然而，由于此后估值扩张，现在购买似乎是一个不太有利的想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD和英特尔提供类似的回报——关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD和英特尔提供类似的回报——关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 23:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证获得丰厚的回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC和AMD将在未来几年实现高个位数回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HQuality Video/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote></p><p> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我确实认为，在选择这些股票时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，面对英特尔的执行风险，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择AMD，因为AMD的估值低迷和对代工厂的依赖是主要的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Total Return Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总回报预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.</p><p><blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测2025年的回报。AMD预计今年的每股收益为2.50美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，这使我们预计2025年每股收益为5.65美元。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.</p><p><blockquote>目前，AMD的净利润是其净利润的40倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年发生变化。首先，AMD过去的估值较低，其次，规模增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来多次压缩的合理性。如下图所示，去年该股的平均市盈率高达30多倍，而目前的预期市盈率为41倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到AMD成熟时的多重压缩，我相信2025年公平值倍数为25--与英特尔这样的低成长性同行相比，这仍然是一笔巨大的溢价，但同时对于更成熟的AMD而言，似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025年的目标价为141美元，上涨潜力接近40%，这使我们的年回报率约为8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote></p><p> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年的每股收益为4.80美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求不断增长，以及英特尔的代工业务应该在2025年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为5.20美元。如今，INTC的预期市盈率仅为11倍，但无论是绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，这反过来又使我们的目标价为69美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨6.5%。加上2.5%的股息收益率，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生9%的年回报率。因此，在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但人们当然可以认为输入应该不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资产负债表和股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:</p><p><blockquote>按当前价格计算，英特尔提供的股息收益率为2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不令人意外，因为AMD在最近的过去并没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔还通过股票回购支付了数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股票数量就下降了11%，而AMD的股票数量在同一时间内上涨了20%以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.</p><p><blockquote>这是AMD案例中股票发行的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管工资，而英特尔股票数量的下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD的股票数量稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果AMD未来继续迅速稀释股东，回报可能会受到打击。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的资产负债表相当干净，37亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远高于1000亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不是特别有意义。与此同时，根据其10-Q报告，英特尔拥有80亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有360亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Risks Do You Want To Take On?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你想冒什么风险？</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报略高于AMD，但由于预测总回报没有重大差异，投资者可能希望根据其他因素做出投资决策，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于该公司在未来的贸易战中免受麻烦。由于政府支持芯片生产在岸，英特尔可能会通过这些努力从有利的政治和补贴中受益。英特尔寻求通过IFS成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们审视TSM时，我们发现如果做得好，这可能是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零增长的IFS确实具有非常稳健的前景，并且可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的足迹可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致在这种情况下出现多重扩张顺风。</blockquote></p><p> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.</p><p><blockquote>因此，地缘政治不是投资英特尔的关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，并且交易成本非常低廉，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得AMD或英伟达等同行获得了市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将其首席执行官换成了更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格（Pat Gelsinger），英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这仍然是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote></p><p> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD在执行力方面非常出色，这似乎并不是该公司的主要风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD的估值相当高，超过净利润的40倍，而且这种情况可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔则更不受此影响，因为无论如何都没有太多的增长被定价。如果AMD的股价跌至净利润的30倍，在其他条件相同的情况下，其股价将下跌25%以上，而且由于几个月前股价还在70美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote></p><p> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD的利润率可能会压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长及其估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.</p><p><blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择一家执行风险较低但估值大幅下跌且更容易受到地缘政治风险的公司，或者是否要选择一家相当便宜且估值较低的股票。估值下行，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote></p><p> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.</p><p><blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微倾向于英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示AMD是一家糟糕的公司。恰恰相反，我们在6月份发布了一篇关于AMD的看涨文章，此后股价上涨了30%。然而，由于此后估值扩张，现在购买似乎是一个不太有利的想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/862191837"}
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