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2021-09-28

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Tech Wreck: "Secular Growth" Slammed By Soaring Rates, Negative Gamma<blockquote>科技灾难：“长期增长”受到利率飙升和负伽马的打击</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":866533518,"tweetId":"866533518","gmtCreate":1632789358934,"gmtModify":1632797585754,"author":{"id":3563946272109058,"idStr":"3563946272109058","authorId":3563946272109058,"authorIdStr":"3563946272109058","name":"Navybean","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":22,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>😅</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>😅</body></html>","text":"😅","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866533518","repostId":1122152725,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122152725","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632788903,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122152725?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tech Wreck: \"Secular Growth\" Slammed By Soaring Rates, Negative Gamma<blockquote>科技灾难：“长期增长”受到利率飙升和负伽马的打击</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122152725","media":"zerohedge","summary":"'Growth-heavy' Nasdaq has been underperforming significantly in recent days, especially relative to ","content":"'Growth-heavy' Nasdaq has been&nbsp;underperforming&nbsp;significantly in recent days, especially relative to value-heavy Small Caps...<blockquote>“以增长为主”的纳斯达克一直表现不佳最近几天显着，尤其是相对于价值较高的小盘股...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c176d2f7905544ad32c6861080813\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">And that trend is accelerating this morning as the pressure on yields continues to lean-on the heavyweight “Secular Growth” Tech contingent (weighing down S&amp;P and Nasdaq relative to Dow and Small Caps). On the day,&nbsp;Russell 2000 is up 1% and Nasdaq 100 down 1%...<blockquote>今天上午，随着收益率压力继续依赖于重量级“长期增长”科技股（相对于道琼斯指数和小盘股，标准普尔和纳斯达克承压），这一趋势正在加速。当天，Russell 2000上涨1%，纳斯达克100下跌1%...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cf88e7653f89b0936296ba8a3011071\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Nomura's Charlie McEligott noted this morning,real yields have been marching higher recently (5Y and 10Y TIPS yields least negative in 3 months), as it continues to look more like the broad Rates selloff has been a risk-premium trade(due to increased uncertainty in holding the front- and belly- of USTs thanks to recent Fed policy updates w/ guidance faster taper + more hikes in the dot plot), as opposed to a view on heightened or accelerating growth- or inflation- expectations—particularly with the latter going nowhere but sideways since start June.<blockquote>正如野村证券的查理·麦克利戈特今天早上指出的那样，实际收益率最近一直在走高（5年期和10年期TIPS收益率为3个月来最低负值），因为广泛的利率抛售看起来更像是一种风险溢价交易（由于美联储最近的政策更新w/指导更快的缩减+点阵图中更多的加息，持有UST的正面和腹部的不确定性增加），而不是对增长或通胀预期提高或加速的观点——特别是后者自6月初以来一直横盘整理。</blockquote> Juxtapose this then with the long-end, which relatively-speaking, has held in much firmer despite this broad UST sell-off, as the indicated Fed policy evolution has market participants pivoting back towards a longer-term resumption of a “secular stagnation” worldview, with slowing growth from tighter financial conditions increasingly priced-into even lower terminal rate pricing. There is then an important message here with regard to the move higher in nominal yields being more about real yields and “tight” Fed policy down the pipe (as well as the tactical drivers of +++ supply and seasonality), versus some potentially misinterpreting the higher nominal yields as a pure read on “reflation” trade dynamics or that sentiment for “above trend growth” is picking back up again. Regardless of the “true” catalyst vs narratives, it’sbearish for Bonds either way, and that is driving a thematic trade in Equities which has many nervous- because most have legged-back into the duration-proxy “Growth” Equities vs reducing “Cyclical Value” over the course this past Quarter.<blockquote>然后将其与长期债券进行比较，相对而言，尽管UST出现了广泛的抛售，但长期债券的坚挺程度要高得多，因为所表明的美联储政策演变使市场参与者转向“长期停滞”世界观的长期恢复随着金融状况收紧导致的增长放缓越来越多地反映在更低的终端利率定价中。这里有一个重要的信息，即名义收益率的走高更多地与实际收益率和美联储未来的“紧缩”政策（以及+++供应和季节性的战术驱动因素）有关，而不是一些可能会将较高的名义收益率误解为对“通货再膨胀”贸易动态的纯粹解读，或者对“高于趋势增长”的情绪再次回升。不管“真正的”催化剂与叙事如何，它无论哪种方式都看跌债券，这正在推动股票的主题交易，这让许多人感到紧张-因为在过去一个季度的过程中，大多数股票都回到了久期-代理“增长”股票与减少“周期性价值”股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe6010165f05dc3e8d9b77b019b2a7d\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Making matters worse for big-tech,the \"nervous around Nasdaq / Secular Growth / Bond Proxies\" is exaggerated by the larger Index Vol picture, QQQs (Nasdaq) is in “negative Gamma” territory vs “spot” for Dealers and acting accordingly “jumpy”(-$223.6mm, just 11.2%ile—flips positive back above $375.05 today in QQQ), while also “negative Delta” vs spot (-$2.3B, 20.8%Ile, flips positive back above $374.45).<blockquote>让大型科技公司的情况更糟的是，更大的指数Vol图夸大了“围绕纳斯达克/长期增长/债券代理的紧张情绪”，QQQs（纳斯达克）对于交易商来说处于“负伽马”区域与“现货”，因此表现得“神经质”（-2.236亿美元，仅11.2%ile-今天在QQQ中回升至375.05美元以上），同时与现货相比也为“负Delta”（-2.3 B美元，20.8%ile，回升至374.45美元以上）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0ff8cb73fa0d796765294d2a46e2fd\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"646\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In other words, brace.<blockquote>换句话说，撑住。</blockquote> However, there is still hope broader US equity indices. McElligott notes that IF the Rates breakdown slows,the S&amp;P is currently “stable,” (not beaucoup, but ho-hum) back “long Gamma” vs spot(+$3.6B, 39.7%ile, flips below 4374) as an insulating dynamic, while similarly lukewarm “long Delta” ($62.2B, 36.7%ile, flips negative below 4423).<blockquote>然而，更广泛的美国股指仍有希望。McElligott指出，如果利率崩溃放缓，标准普尔指数目前“稳定”（不是很多，而是无聊）与现货相比“长伽马”（+36亿美元，39.7%ile，跌破4374）作为一个绝缘动态，而同样不冷不热的“长增量”（622亿美元，36.7%ile，跌破4423）。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tech Wreck: \"Secular Growth\" Slammed By Soaring Rates, Negative Gamma<blockquote>科技灾难：“长期增长”受到利率飙升和负伽马的打击</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTech Wreck: \"Secular Growth\" Slammed By Soaring Rates, Negative Gamma<blockquote>科技灾难：“长期增长”受到利率飙升和负伽马的打击</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-28 08:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n'Growth-heavy' Nasdaq has been&nbsp;underperforming&nbsp;significantly in recent days, especially relative to value-heavy Small Caps...<blockquote>“以增长为主”的纳斯达克一直表现不佳最近几天显着，尤其是相对于价值较高的小盘股...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/453c176d2f7905544ad32c6861080813\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">And that trend is accelerating this morning as the pressure on yields continues to lean-on the heavyweight “Secular Growth” Tech contingent (weighing down S&amp;P and Nasdaq relative to Dow and Small Caps). On the day,&nbsp;Russell 2000 is up 1% and Nasdaq 100 down 1%...<blockquote>今天上午，随着收益率压力继续依赖于重量级“长期增长”科技股（相对于道琼斯指数和小盘股，标准普尔和纳斯达克承压），这一趋势正在加速。当天，Russell 2000上涨1%，纳斯达克100下跌1%...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cf88e7653f89b0936296ba8a3011071\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"731\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As Nomura's Charlie McEligott noted this morning,real yields have been marching higher recently (5Y and 10Y TIPS yields least negative in 3 months), as it continues to look more like the broad Rates selloff has been a risk-premium trade(due to increased uncertainty in holding the front- and belly- of USTs thanks to recent Fed policy updates w/ guidance faster taper + more hikes in the dot plot), as opposed to a view on heightened or accelerating growth- or inflation- expectations—particularly with the latter going nowhere but sideways since start June.<blockquote>正如野村证券的查理·麦克利戈特今天早上指出的那样，实际收益率最近一直在走高（5年期和10年期TIPS收益率为3个月来最低负值），因为广泛的利率抛售看起来更像是一种风险溢价交易（由于美联储最近的政策更新w/指导更快的缩减+点阵图中更多的加息，持有UST的正面和腹部的不确定性增加），而不是对增长或通胀预期提高或加速的观点——特别是后者自6月初以来一直横盘整理。</blockquote> Juxtapose this then with the long-end, which relatively-speaking, has held in much firmer despite this broad UST sell-off, as the indicated Fed policy evolution has market participants pivoting back towards a longer-term resumption of a “secular stagnation” worldview, with slowing growth from tighter financial conditions increasingly priced-into even lower terminal rate pricing. There is then an important message here with regard to the move higher in nominal yields being more about real yields and “tight” Fed policy down the pipe (as well as the tactical drivers of +++ supply and seasonality), versus some potentially misinterpreting the higher nominal yields as a pure read on “reflation” trade dynamics or that sentiment for “above trend growth” is picking back up again. Regardless of the “true” catalyst vs narratives, it’sbearish for Bonds either way, and that is driving a thematic trade in Equities which has many nervous- because most have legged-back into the duration-proxy “Growth” Equities vs reducing “Cyclical Value” over the course this past Quarter.<blockquote>然后将其与长期债券进行比较，相对而言，尽管UST出现了广泛的抛售，但长期债券的坚挺程度要高得多，因为所表明的美联储政策演变使市场参与者转向“长期停滞”世界观的长期恢复随着金融状况收紧导致的增长放缓越来越多地反映在更低的终端利率定价中。这里有一个重要的信息，即名义收益率的走高更多地与实际收益率和美联储未来的“紧缩”政策（以及+++供应和季节性的战术驱动因素）有关，而不是一些可能会将较高的名义收益率误解为对“通货再膨胀”贸易动态的纯粹解读，或者对“高于趋势增长”的情绪再次回升。不管“真正的”催化剂与叙事如何，它无论哪种方式都看跌债券，这正在推动股票的主题交易，这让许多人感到紧张-因为在过去一个季度的过程中，大多数股票都回到了久期-代理“增长”股票与减少“周期性价值”股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe6010165f05dc3e8d9b77b019b2a7d\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Making matters worse for big-tech,the \"nervous around Nasdaq / Secular Growth / Bond Proxies\" is exaggerated by the larger Index Vol picture, QQQs (Nasdaq) is in “negative Gamma” territory vs “spot” for Dealers and acting accordingly “jumpy”(-$223.6mm, just 11.2%ile—flips positive back above $375.05 today in QQQ), while also “negative Delta” vs spot (-$2.3B, 20.8%Ile, flips positive back above $374.45).<blockquote>让大型科技公司的情况更糟的是，更大的指数Vol图夸大了“围绕纳斯达克/长期增长/债券代理的紧张情绪”，QQQs（纳斯达克）对于交易商来说处于“负伽马”区域与“现货”，因此表现得“神经质”（-2.236亿美元，仅11.2%ile-今天在QQQ中回升至375.05美元以上），同时与现货相比也为“负Delta”（-2.3 B美元，20.8%ile，回升至374.45美元以上）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0ff8cb73fa0d796765294d2a46e2fd\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"646\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In other words, brace.<blockquote>换句话说，撑住。</blockquote> However, there is still hope broader US equity indices. McElligott notes that IF the Rates breakdown slows,the S&amp;P is currently “stable,” (not beaucoup, but ho-hum) back “long Gamma” vs spot(+$3.6B, 39.7%ile, flips below 4374) as an insulating dynamic, while similarly lukewarm “long Delta” ($62.2B, 36.7%ile, flips negative below 4423).<blockquote>然而，更广泛的美国股指仍有希望。McElligott指出，如果利率崩溃放缓，标准普尔指数目前“稳定”（不是很多，而是无聊）与现货相比“长伽马”（+36亿美元，39.7%ile，跌破4374）作为一个绝缘动态，而同样不冷不热的“长增量”（622亿美元，36.7%ile，跌破4423）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-wreck-secular-growth-slammed-soaring-rates-negative-gamma\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-wreck-secular-growth-slammed-soaring-rates-negative-gamma","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122152725","content_text":"'Growth-heavy' Nasdaq has been underperforming significantly in recent days, especially relative to value-heavy Small Caps...\nAnd that trend is accelerating this morning as the pressure on yields continues to lean-on the heavyweight “Secular Growth” Tech contingent (weighing down S&P and Nasdaq relative to Dow and Small Caps). On the day, Russell 2000 is up 1% and Nasdaq 100 down 1%...\nAs Nomura's Charlie McEligott noted this morning,real yields have been marching higher recently (5Y and 10Y TIPS yields least negative in 3 months), as it continues to look more like the broad Rates selloff has been a risk-premium trade(due to increased uncertainty in holding the front- and belly- of USTs thanks to recent Fed policy updates w/ guidance faster taper + more hikes in the dot plot), as opposed to a view on heightened or accelerating growth- or inflation- expectations—particularly with the latter going nowhere but sideways since start June.\n\n Juxtapose this then with the long-end, which relatively-speaking, has held in much firmer despite this broad UST sell-off, as the indicated Fed policy evolution has market participants pivoting back towards\n a longer-term resumption of a “secular stagnation” worldview, with slowing growth from tighter financial conditions increasingly priced-into even lower terminal rate pricing.\n\n\n There is then an important message here with regard to the move higher in nominal yields being more about real yields and “tight” Fed policy down the pipe (as well as the tactical drivers of +++ supply and seasonality), versus some\n potentially misinterpreting the higher nominal yields as a pure read on “reflation” trade dynamics or that sentiment for “above trend growth” is picking back up again.\n\nRegardless of the “true” catalyst vs narratives, it’sbearish for Bonds either way, and that is driving a thematic trade in Equities which has many nervous- because most have legged-back into the duration-proxy “Growth” Equities vs reducing “Cyclical Value” over the course this past Quarter.\nMaking matters worse for big-tech,the \"nervous around Nasdaq / Secular Growth / Bond Proxies\" is exaggerated by the larger Index Vol picture, QQQs (Nasdaq) is in “negative Gamma” territory vs “spot” for Dealers and acting accordingly “jumpy”(-$223.6mm, just 11.2%ile—flips positive back above $375.05 today in QQQ), while also “negative Delta” vs spot (-$2.3B, 20.8%Ile, flips positive back above $374.45).\nIn other words, brace.\nHowever, there is still hope broader US equity indices. McElligott notes that IF the Rates breakdown slows,the S&P is currently “stable,” (not beaucoup, but ho-hum) back “long Gamma” vs spot(+$3.6B, 39.7%ile, flips below 4374) as an insulating dynamic, while similarly lukewarm “long Delta” ($62.2B, 36.7%ile, flips negative below 4423).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1989,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/866533518"}