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2021-12-20

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Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week

2021-12-19

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2021-12-18

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2021-12-16

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2021-12-15

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2021-12-14

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PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks

2021-12-14

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PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks

2021-12-14

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PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks

2021-12-13

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2021-12-12

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2021-12-11

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2021-12-10

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2021-12-09

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2021-12-08

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2021-12-07

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Samsung to merge mobile and consumer electronics divisions

2021-12-06

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Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading

2021-12-05

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2021-12-04

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US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week

2021-12-03

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2021-12-03

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06:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130704419","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. 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Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p>\n<p><b>Monday 12/20</b></p>\n<p>Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p>\n<p><b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p>\n<p>BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p>\n<p><b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p>\n<p><b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p>\n<p>CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p>\n<p><b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p>\n<p><b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p>\n<p><b>Thursday 12/23</b></p>\n<p><b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p>\n<p><b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p>\n<p><b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p>\n<p><b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p>\n<p><b>Friday 12/24</b></p>\n<p><b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-20 06:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","PAYX":"沛齐","CTAS":"信达思","KMX":"车美仕",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GIS":"通用磨坊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130704419","content_text":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.\nIt will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.\nOn Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.\nAlso Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.\nMonday 12/20\nMicron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.\nTuesday 12/21\nBlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.\nWednesday 12/22\nThe NAR reports existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.\nCarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.\nThe Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.\nThursday 12/23\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.\nThe Census Bureau reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.\nThe BEA reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.\nFriday 12/24\nU.S. equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699760836,"gmtCreate":1639899391673,"gmtModify":1639899392039,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699760836","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699630958,"gmtCreate":1639789281578,"gmtModify":1639789281960,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699630958","repostId":"2192597562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690170310,"gmtCreate":1639650116281,"gmtModify":1639650183269,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690170310","repostId":"1165042142","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607685502,"gmtCreate":1639533250657,"gmtModify":1639533406555,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607685502","repostId":"2191784951","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607034489,"gmtCreate":1639455543118,"gmtModify":1639455543548,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607034489","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>\n <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>\n <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>\n <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p>\n<p>The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p>\n<p>This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p>\n<p>The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p>\n<p>In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p>\n<p>As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p>\n<p>Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p>\n<p><b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p>\n<p>In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p>\n<p><b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p>\n<p>We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p>\n<p>There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p>\n<p>The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p>\n<p>Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p>\n<p>Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p>\n<p><b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p>\n<p>Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p>\n<p>My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p>\n<p><b>Additional Considerations</b></p>\n<p>I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p>\n<p>First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p>\n<p>Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p>\n<p>The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p>\n<p>When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607034143,"gmtCreate":1639455506389,"gmtModify":1639455506813,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607034143","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>\n <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>\n <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>\n <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p>\n<p>The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p>\n<p>This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p>\n<p>The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p>\n<p>In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p>\n<p>As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p>\n<p>Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p>\n<p><b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p>\n<p>In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p>\n<p><b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p>\n<p>We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p>\n<p>There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p>\n<p>The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p>\n<p>Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p>\n<p>Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p>\n<p><b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p>\n<p>Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p>\n<p>My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p>\n<p><b>Additional Considerations</b></p>\n<p>I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p>\n<p>First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p>\n<p>Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p>\n<p>The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p>\n<p>When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607035711,"gmtCreate":1639455463923,"gmtModify":1639455464292,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607035711","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>\n <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>\n <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>\n <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p>\n<p>The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p>\n<p>This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p>\n<p>The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p>\n<p>In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p>\n<p>As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p>\n<p>Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p>\n<p><b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p>\n<p>In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p>\n<p><b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p>\n<p>We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p>\n<p>There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p>\n<p>The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p>\n<p>Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p>\n<p>Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p>\n<p><b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p>\n<p>Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p>\n<p>My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p>\n<p><b>Additional Considerations</b></p>\n<p>I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p>\n<p>First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p>\n<p>Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p>\n<p>The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p>\n<p>When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604608461,"gmtCreate":1639379938858,"gmtModify":1639379939213,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604608461","repostId":"1120125765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604004736,"gmtCreate":1639275546535,"gmtModify":1639275546885,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okra&nbsp;","listText":"Okra&nbsp;","text":"Okra","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604004736","repostId":"2190967197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605587980,"gmtCreate":1639191401532,"gmtModify":1639191467094,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605587980","repostId":"2190205546","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605123780,"gmtCreate":1639132043360,"gmtModify":1639132043736,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605123780","repostId":"1160479644","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602859336,"gmtCreate":1639008803858,"gmtModify":1639008804151,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602859336","repostId":"2190169579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602942698,"gmtCreate":1638964366863,"gmtModify":1638964367202,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602942698","repostId":"1175313304","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606807516,"gmtCreate":1638850370127,"gmtModify":1638850370408,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606807516","repostId":"2189681055","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2189681055","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638848825,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2189681055?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-07 11:47","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Samsung to merge mobile and consumer electronics divisions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2189681055","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"SEOUL (REUTERS) - Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday (Dec 7) it will merge its mobile and consumer ","content":"<div>\n<p>SEOUL (REUTERS) - Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday (Dec 7) it will merge its mobile and consumer electronics divisions, as it focuses on growing its logic chip business.\nThe sweeping move is the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Samsung to merge mobile and consumer electronics divisions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ 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.h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSamsung to merge mobile and consumer electronics divisions\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-07 11:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions><strong>The Straits Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SEOUL (REUTERS) - Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday (Dec 7) it will merge its mobile and consumer electronics divisions, as it focuses on growing its logic chip business.\nThe sweeping move is the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SSNGY":"Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd."},"source_url":"http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/samsung-to-merge-mobile-and-consumer-electronics-divisions","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2189681055","content_text":"SEOUL (REUTERS) - Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday (Dec 7) it will merge its mobile and consumer electronics divisions, as it focuses on growing its logic chip business.\nThe sweeping move is the latest sign of change at the world's largest memory chip and smartphone maker, after vice chairman Jay Y. Lee was paroled in August from a bribery conviction.\nThe head of visual display business, Han Jong-hee, was promoted to vice chairman and co-CEO, and will lead the newly merged division spanning mobile and consumer electronics.\nKyung Kye-hyun, CEO of Samsung Electro-Mechanics , was named co-CEO of Samsung Electronics and will lead the chip and components division.\nSamsung Group is focusing on areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, robotics and biopharmaceuticals, and plans to invest 240 trillion won (S$278 billion) in these fields in the next three years.\nGroup flagship Samsung Electronics is aiming to overtake TSMC to become No. 1 in chip contract manufacturing by 2030.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608727206,"gmtCreate":1638793850528,"gmtModify":1638793851809,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608727206","repostId":"1191828969","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191828969","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638792831,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191828969?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 20:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191828969","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading.The&nbsp;Singapore ride-hailing firm&nbsp;went on sale last week.","content":"<p>Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading.The&nbsp;Singapore ride-hailing firm&nbsp;went on sale last week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de30b544b65a645e7a91a37bfb8d8f8\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-06 20:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading.The&nbsp;Singapore ride-hailing firm&nbsp;went on sale last week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de30b544b65a645e7a91a37bfb8d8f8\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191828969","content_text":"Grab shares slid more than 4% in premarket trading.The Singapore ride-hailing firm went on sale last week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608852859,"gmtCreate":1638689227985,"gmtModify":1638689228178,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608852859","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608381011,"gmtCreate":1638626668642,"gmtModify":1638626668795,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608381011","repostId":"1174181873","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174181873","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638578178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174181873?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-04 08:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174181873","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billi","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p>\n<p>Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p>\n<p>Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p>\n<p>Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p>\n<p>Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-04 08:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee><strong>renaissancecap...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.\nBuffett-backed Nu Holdings(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"REFI":"Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.","HCP":"HashiCorp, Inc.","NU":"Nu Holdings Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174181873","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.\nBuffett-backed Nu Holdings(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.\nCloud infrastructure platform HashiCorp(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&M spend.\nCannabis finance REIT Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.\nCanadian gold exploration company Austin Gold(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601971447,"gmtCreate":1638488460787,"gmtModify":1638488460977,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okra&nbsp;","listText":"Okra&nbsp;","text":"Okra","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601971447","repostId":"2188204517","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601971911,"gmtCreate":1638488434643,"gmtModify":1638488434831,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601971911","repostId":"2188510525","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":112147173,"gmtCreate":1622857820992,"gmtModify":1634097330604,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lik n comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Lik n comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Lik n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112147173","repostId":"1198786025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198786025","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622849125,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198786025?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 07:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 rises on Friday to close out winning week near a record high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198786025","media":"CNBC","summary":"U.S. stocks climbed on Friday as the key May jobs report showed solid gains, boosting confidence in the economic comeback.The S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 4,229.89, sitting less than 0.2% from its all-time high reached last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 179.35 points to 34,756.39. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a nearly 1.5% rally to 13,814.49.The major averages all registered modest gains for the week. The blue-chip Dow and the S&P 500 advanced about 0.7% and 0.6%, respec","content":"<div>\n<p>U.S. stocks climbed on Friday as the key May jobs report showed solid gains, boosting confidence in the economic comeback.\nThe S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 4,229.89, sitting less than 0.2% from its all-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 rises on Friday to close out winning week near a record high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 rises on Friday to close out winning week near a record high\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-05 07:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. stocks climbed on Friday as the key May jobs report showed solid gains, boosting confidence in the economic comeback.\nThe S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 4,229.89, sitting less than 0.2% from its all-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1198786025","content_text":"U.S. stocks climbed on Friday as the key May jobs report showed solid gains, boosting confidence in the economic comeback.\nThe S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 4,229.89, sitting less than 0.2% from its all-time high reached last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 179.35 points to 34,756.39. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a nearly 1.5% rally to 13,814.49.\nThe major averages all registered modest gains for the week. The blue-chip Dow and the S&P 500 advanced about 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively, on the week for their second straight positive week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained just shy of 0.5% this week for its third winning week in a row.\nThe U.S. economy added 559,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department said on Friday. The number came in slightly lower than an estimate of 671,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, but still showed a healthy rebound in the labor market. It’s an improvement from the upwardly revised 278,000 payrolls added in April.\nThe unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 6.1%, which was better than the estimate of 5.9%. Many believe the jobs report, while solid, is not strong enough to trigger the Federal Reserve to dial back its bond buying program.\nThe jobs number is “goldilocks for risk,” said John Briggs, global head of strategy at NatWest Markets. It’s “not too hot to bring in the Fed and not too cold to worry about the economy.”\nThe 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly following the jobs report. Bond yields had jumped higher in recent months amid rising inflation expectations.\n“While the job gains were somewhat modest relative to expectations, the good news is the figure rebounded from last month’s disappointing miss,” said Charlie Ripley, vice president of portfolio management at Allianz Investment Management. “Overall, today’s report does provide progress in the right direction.”\nMeme stocks continued their wild prices swings on Friday, but this time to the downside. AMC Entertainment ended the session down about 6.7%, but still gained more than 80% this week. BlackBerry fell 12.7% Friday, paring its rally this week to 37%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177827241,"gmtCreate":1627198413983,"gmtModify":1633767210145,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177827241","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>\n <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>\n <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p>\n<p>Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p>\n<p>What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p>\n<p>Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p>\n<p><b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p>\n<p>IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p>\n<p>Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p>\n<p>The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p>\n<p>The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p>\n<p>The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p>\n<p>Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p>\n<p>Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p>\n<p>Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p>\n<p>IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p>\n<p>It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p>\n<p>For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p>\n<p>Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p>\n<p>IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p>\n<p>Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p>\n<p>It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p>\n<p>However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p>\n<p><b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p>\n<p>Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p>\n<blockquote>\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p>\n<p>Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p>\n<p>I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p>\n<p>Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p>\n<p>The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p>\n<p>Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p>\n<p>Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p>\n<p>Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p>\n<p>For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p>\n<p><b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p>\n<p>Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p>\n<p>The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p>\n<p>Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p>\n<p>IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p>\n<p>Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p>\n<p>What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p>\n<p><b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p>\n<p>Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p>\n<p>While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p>\n<p>In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p>\n<p>The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Debt And Dividend</b></p>\n<p>While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p>\n<p>The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p>\n<p>IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p>\n<p><b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p>\n<p>IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p>\n<p>IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p>\n<p>The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p>\n<p>I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p>\n<p><b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p>\n<p>IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p>\n<p>That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p>\n<p>If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p>\n<p>IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p>\n<p>All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p>\n<p>I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 11:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148895167,"gmtCreate":1625965503659,"gmtModify":1633931355661,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148895167","repostId":"1113530069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160455781,"gmtCreate":1623805120143,"gmtModify":1634027932726,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Time to in?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Time to in?","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Time to in?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160455781","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":607685502,"gmtCreate":1639533250657,"gmtModify":1639533406555,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607685502","repostId":"2191784951","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885231072,"gmtCreate":1631795886496,"gmtModify":1631890304855,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885231072","repostId":"1132437771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132437771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631792549,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132437771?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132437771","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Nvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.</li>\n <li>Investors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.</li>\n <li>Due to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d3f68e7d7037092fadd0ee8f1ab7d6\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>wellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>From a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers &amp; cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization &amp; cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.</p>\n<p>Not only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fc9ac68b953baa8a700911e6d0bae74\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Going forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.</p>\n<p><b>All about GPUs demand</b></p>\n<p>Even though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c28b9183a9848e6736b81b6d2a9c22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p>\n<p>As if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f8090d5c3afcbca0034dc19ebf87cd\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.</p>\n<blockquote>\n NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e19c38b0c31479f3ca070abe62f088d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021</span></p>\n<p>Last but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall&nbsp;preference&nbsp;for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cde81f76201b5c7f5832202aaa17e08\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: bbc.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Implications for the Income Statement</b></p>\n<p>The perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2ffb1f7cf418f4f8b264dd72a22fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Going forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d980f7a5a4c4f88b24057841ca2db18b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"135\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>The forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52527c42a41f66d31bcfaa80b46b1fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>However, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/925c87e1ab20aef8c57bacc0190ac528\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>This allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research &amp; Development expenses.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176479e69a17e33e4ff51eecb22a9d79\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Even adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&amp;D investments.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9947f932bee0cdc8168c3ba93b08cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>While organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eb65f1081a7a5a1b44babd5de7c1a63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org</span></p>\n<p>That is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/811811f1ac57020a31ee1c4834476b46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation</span></p>\n<blockquote>\n Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of \n <i>$21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stock</i>and $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Source:nvidianews.nvidia.com</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The ARM deal, which is still under&nbsp;review&nbsp;by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb6ec9cdf0fffb8d9ce13f7818ea7500\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"887\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: cbinsights.com</span></p>\n<p>In addition to high M&amp;A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a011c8086483c73b9bb116684f5402d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p><b>The value conundrum</b></p>\n<p>As rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee7cb10de1973f49703e0262aeca3b12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>After everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.</p>\n<p>As we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/680a02fe38521c886f802828f1a86480\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Due to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.</p>\n<p>Interestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.</p>\n<p>This is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).</p>\n<p>This also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.</p>\n<p>That is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a706f8ec1fe650806ddbf2b3730c659\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>In the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First, \n <i>post crypto inventory of GPUs</i>in the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Second, \n <i>deteriorating macro economic conditions,</i>impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript\n</blockquote>\n<p>This also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1&nbsp;split&nbsp;adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.</p>\n<p><b>The elephant in the room</b></p>\n<p>The unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).</p>\n<p>In the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2664fc3740387f87d6aa32f635ed3dd1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org</span></p>\n<p>After everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb70e63d6055785d63a4d52fd5f41b73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: ishares.com</span></p>\n<p>Nvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b30576794833fa9f35403aac0c68767b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>Since this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as&nbsp;constructed&nbsp;by Fama &amp; French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae61fb668ca8d5dcca59f74af5a02af7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance &amp; Fama &amp; French</span></p>\n<p>Nvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e5dac0e96644db66820dce414e647ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance</span></p>\n<p>Nvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.</p>\n<p>Of course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Fundamentals Matter Less Than Ever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-16 19:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.\nInvestors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455441-nvidia-fundamentals-matter-less-than-ever","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132437771","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia is an undisputed leader in the semiconductors space, with one of the most profitable business models.\nInvestors' focus is usually put on the company's strong product roadmap, which is now less relevant for the share price performance.\nDue to its unique positioning, Nvidia's share price is now more sensitive to market-wide forces than it is to the company's business fundamentals.\n\nwellesenterprises/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nFrom a relatively small gaming company a couple of years ago, Nvidia (NVDA) has turned into one of the most important technological enterprises globally. From data centers & cloud computing, driverless cars and all kinds of artificial intelligence computing workloads, to gaming, visualization & cryptocurrency mining, Nvidia products are now the lifeblood of the new digital economy.\nNot only is Nvidia's intellectual property uniquely positioned within the new digital age, but the company is also an undisputed leader in the graphics processing unit(GPU)space with a very wide moat. This led to the success story called Nvidia.\nData by YCharts\nGoing forward, however, share price returns are likely to disappoint even in the face of improving business fundamentals. It appears that certain market-wide risks are now in the driver's seat of Nvidia share price and could catch many of Nvidia shareholders off-guard. But before we dig into that, we need to properly account for the leading position business potential of the company.\nAll about GPUs demand\nEven though the Gaming segment still takes a sizeable proportion of Nvidia's business, just over the course of four years Data Center has become equally important in size.\nSource: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021\nAs if the already ongoing trend towards more cloud-based workloads was not enough, the current pandemic significantly accelerated the overall demand.\n\nIn addition to data centers, the automotive industry is also starving for Nvidia's chips which made the company deeply embedded in the automotive ecosystem.\n\n NVIDIA is working with several hundred partners in the automotive ecosystem including automakers, truck makers, tier one suppliers, sensor manufacturers, automotive research institutions, HD mapping companies, and startups to develop and deploy AI systems for self-driving vehicles.\n\n\n Source: Nvidia Annual Report 2021\n\nSource: Nvidia Annual Investor Day 2021\nLast but not least, the tug-of-war between gamers and cryptocurrency miners has resulted in both higher volume sales as well as higher pricing of Nvidia's GPUs. The uptick in energy consumption for cryptocurrency mining, coupled with the overall preference for Nvidia GPUs was yet another tailwind for the company's Gaming division.\nSource: bbc.com\nImplications for the Income Statement\nThe perfect storm for GPUs demand and Nvidia's leading position in the segment resulted in the 53% topline growth in fiscal year 2021 and 31% so far for the FY 2022.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nGoing forward, NVDA is likely to sustain this high topline growth rate, which is expected to somehow cool-off following fiscal year 2022.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThe forward growth rate of NVDA is comparable only to that of its other GPU rival - AMD (AMD), which is expected to grow at a similar rate over the next two fiscal years.\n* compounded annual growth rate from the most recently completed fiscal year's revenue to analysts' consensus revenue estimates for two fiscal years forward Source: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nHowever, while AMD's share price benefited massively from the strong GPU demand and its recent comeback to the CPU stage, Nvidia retained an industry-leading profitability.\nData by YCharts\nThis allowed NVDA to spend significantly more than its rival AMD on Research & Development expenses.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nEven adjusted for size, Nvidia has also been consistently outspending AMD on R&D investments.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nWhile organic growth opportunities for Nvidia might seem endless at this point in time, the semiconductors industry remains highly cyclical and sooner or later even the GPU demand will cool off.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from fred.stlouisfed.org and semi.org\nThat is why, even in the midst of the GPU shortages, Nvidia management is capitalizing on its extremely high valuation by tapping into the strategic acquisition of ARM.\nSource: Nvidia to acquire ARM presentation\n\n Under the terms of the transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of NVIDIA, SBG and Arm, NVIDIA will pay to SoftBank a total of \n $21.5 billion in NVIDIA common stockand $12 billion in cash, which includes $2 billion payable at signing.\n\n\nSource:nvidianews.nvidia.com\n\nThe ARM deal, which is still under review by the regulators, was also one of the largest Tech deals for 2020.\nSource: cbinsights.com\nIn addition to high M&A activity being a sign of a peak in market valuations, analysts' sentiment on Nvidia is also exceptionally optimistic which suggests that the near-term growth is already priced in.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThe value conundrum\nAs rosy as everything seems for NVDA right now, there should a price that is simply too high even when accounting for Nvidia's strong positioning. So far as growth accelerated so did the company's P/E ratio, which suggests an even more optimistic future scenario. However, neither Nvidia's bottom line nor its earnings multiple can go on an upward trajectory forever.\nData by YCharts\nAfter everything we said so far, we have some solid reasons to believe that the earnings per share (EPS) growth will be sustained for the time being, even in the face of the cyclical nature of the industry. But at such high valuations, the price premium attached to EPS growth is far more important for future returns. In other words, Nvidia's bottom line could fulfil even the rosiest forecasts but the share price could still disappoint, if the premium paid for high growth decreases.\nAs we saw earlier, right now both NVDA and AMD are the two highest growth names in the semiconductors peer group and as such are rewarded by a proportionally higher earnings multiple.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Seeking Alpha\nDue to Nvidia's leading positioning and higher profitability, the company lies above the trend line on the graph above.\nInterestingly enough, if we exclude the high-flying GPU companies, the R-Squared between the rest of the peer group is just 0.12 which means that there isn't a strong relationship between future growth and valuations for everything other than GPUs in the semiconductors space.\nThis is due to the fact that NVDA and AMD chips are expected to have a more sustained growth beyond next year as GPUs remain crucial for data centers, autos, digital currencies and a number of other workloads related to artificial intelligence (AI).\nThis also means that NVDA and AMD are among the highest duration stocks in the sample and as such the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. Meaning that all else being equal, NVDA and AMD shares will be hit much harder than those of their peers in an event of rising interest rates.\nThat is why, NVDA Price-to-Sales ratio trails the performance of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is influenced by long-term bond yields.\nData by YCharts\nIn the graph above, the TLT does a very good job at explaining movements in Nvidia's P/S ratio, with the exception of the last quarter of calendar year 2018, when crypto-related demand had a profound impact on the company's topline results.\n\n Three factors contributed to the Q4 gaming revenue decline. First, \n post crypto inventory of GPUsin the channel caused us to reduce shipments in order to allow excess channel inventory to sell through. We expect channel inventory to normalize in Q1 in line with one to two quarter timeline we had outlined on our previous earnings call.\n\n\n Second, \n deteriorating macro economic conditions,impacted consumer demand for our GPUs; and third, sales of certain high end GPUs using our new Turing architecture, including the GeForce RTX 2080 and 2070 were lower than we expected for the launch of a new architecture.\n\n\n Source: Nvidia Q4 of FY 2019 earnings transcript\n\nThis also highlights the sensitivity of Nvidia share price to macroeconomic conditions in cryptocurrency-related demand as the share price halved from around $70 in September 2018 (4-to-1 split adjusted) to around $35 in January of the following year.\nThe elephant in the room\nThe unprecedented amount of liquidity within the equity markets has been a blessing for high growth momentum stocks, which was one of the best performing areas of the market over the last decade. That is why it is worth noticing that lower interest rates have profound implications for returns of momentum stocks (see the graph below).\nIn the graph below I measure momentum by taking a long position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) and a short position in the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE).\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance and fred.stlouisfed.org\nAfter everything we said so far, it should come as no surprise that momentum stocks were one of the best performing areas of the market during 2020, when nominal yields on the 10-year government bonds fell below 1%. During this period, Nvidia share price more than doubled from around $60 (post-split) in January to $130 in December of the same year. And although the company does not make it into the largest holdings of MTUM, its share price was heavily influenced by the performance of the momentum factor.\nSource: ishares.com\nNvidia's relationship with momentum factor (MTUM less VLUE) has become an even stronger over the recent months as its share price reached new all-time highs, with the rolling 1-year R-Squared of daily returns hovering above 0.35.\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance\nSince this might look as a coincidence, the relationship between NVDA and the momentum factor, as constructed by Fama & French, also followed a similar pattern to the one used above.\n* up until 30th of June 2021 due to lack of more recent data Source: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance & Fama & French\nNvidia's exposure to the momentum factor is also much stronger than those of other high-flying growth names, such as AMD, Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO).\nSource: prepared by the author, using data from Yahoo! Finance\nNvidia was one of the growth stocks that benefited the most from the recent drop in interest rates and as such is at the highest risk of a sharp reversal, should bond yields normalize. Adding the risk of lower demand from cryptocurrency mining, and the prospects of Nvidia share price continuing to outperform look slim. That is why, investors should not be surprised, if going forward Nvidia share price disappoints even as management continues to deliver on its strategy.\nOf course, there is always the possibility that the Federal Reserve will be unable to taper and bring bond yields to a more normalized level, which in itself will be enough to propel Nvidia's share price to new all-time highs. Nevertheless, this is a highly uncertain event that is also unrelated to Nvidia's business performance. Moreover, the outcome of this event will likely have a disproportionately higher influence on Nvidia's future share price performance than the company's products will.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":842117169,"gmtCreate":1636155550624,"gmtModify":1636155551032,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay&nbsp;","listText":"Okay&nbsp;","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842117169","repostId":"2181746364","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197521416,"gmtCreate":1621474596435,"gmtModify":1634188869849,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment pls","listText":"Comment pls","text":"Comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197521416","repostId":"1129952039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129952039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621466041,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129952039?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-20 07:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129952039","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal","content":"<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.</p><p>“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.</p><p>Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.</p><p>All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&amp;P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.</p><p>The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.</p><p>Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.</p><p><b><i>Financial</i></b><b>&nbsp;</b><b><i>Report</i></b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1160173685\" target=\"_blank\">4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1178296022\" target=\"_blank\">KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenue</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136465859\" target=\"_blank\">Victoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales rise</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136594667\" target=\"_blank\">Cisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlook</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2136450339\" target=\"_blank\">Chip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets</a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks drop after Fed minutes, crypto fall\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-20 07:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-drop-after-fed-minutes-crypto-fall-idUSL2N2N639Y","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129952039","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Wednesday after minutes from an April Federal Reserve meeting showed participants agreed the U.S. economy remained far from the central bank’s goals, with some considering discussions on tapering its bond buying program.The S&P 500 added to losses after the release of the minutes revealed a number of Fed policymakers thought that if the economy continued rapid progress, it would become appropriate “at some point” in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a tapering of the Fed’s monthly purchases of government bonds, a policy designed to keep long-term interest rates low.“There continues to be a view and a perspective from the participants, as well as the Fed staff that these inflationary pressures that are beginning to become evident will remain transitory in their view and will likely recede as we transition into 2022,” said Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis.Strong inflation readings and signs of a worker shortage in recent weeks have fueled fears and roiled stock markets despite reassurances from Fed officials that the rise in prices would be temporary.All three main indexes hit their session lows in morning trade after opening sharply lower, then partially recovered before the release of the Fed minutes pressured them anew.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 164.62 points, or 0.48%, to 33,896.04, the S&P 500 lost 12.15 points, or 0.29%, to 4,115.68 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.90 points, or 0.03%, to 13,299.74.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.70 billion shares, compared with the 10.60 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Contributing to a risk-off mood on Wednesday, Bitcoin and ether plunged in the wake of China’s move to ban financial and payment institutions from providing cryptocurrency services.The two main digital currencies fell as much as 30% and 45%, respectively, but they significantly stemmed their losses in afternoon trading after two of their biggest backers -- Tesla Inc chief Elon Musk and Ark Invest’s chief executive officer Cathie Wood -- reiterated their support for bitcoin.Crypto-exchange operator Coinbase Global ,miners Riot Blockchain and Marathon Digital Holdings saw their shares sharply decline on Wednesday.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.15-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.71-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 3 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 34 new highs and 49 new lows.Financial Report4.5 Billion Parcels Expanded Market Share to 20.4%KE Holdings EPS beats by $0.04, beats on revenueVictoria's Secret parent L Brands swings to quarterly profit as sales riseCisco stock drops as higher costs amid chip shortage ding earnings outlookChip Design Software Firm Synopsys Trounces Fiscal Second-Quarter Targets","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":872618300,"gmtCreate":1637502024359,"gmtModify":1637502024543,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872618300","repostId":"2184782893","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876762332,"gmtCreate":1637366607630,"gmtModify":1637366608207,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876762332","repostId":"1114542201","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114542201","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637335740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114542201?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-19 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing Dreamliner Defects Bog Down Production","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114542201","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Boeing stock dropped 4% in morning trading as Boeing Dreamliner defected bog down production.\n\nBoein","content":"<p>Boeing stock dropped 4% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Boeing Dreamliner defected bog down production.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c6c1e62a6a6a253da601f54af830508\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Boeing&nbsp;Co.&nbsp;has further slowed production of 787 Dreamliners as&nbsp;it addresses defects&nbsp;that&nbsp;are delaying deliveries of new jets&nbsp;and complicating airlines’ plans, people familiar with the matter said.</p>\n<p>The plane maker is holding off completing the new wide-body jets at its North Charleston, S.C., factory as workers and engineers address problems related to areas surrounding passenger and cargo doors on aircraft already under construction, these people said.</p>\n<p>The latest production slowdown began in recent days and could last a few weeks as Boeing seeks expertise from other aerospace manufacturers in addressing the door issue, some of these people said. In late October, Boeing disclosed it was producing about two Dreamliners a month, down from a planned monthly rate of five,to resolve production issues.</p>\n<p>A string of production snafus has hampered Boeing’s ability to deliver new Dreamliners for much of the last year, fueling the manufacturer’s financial losses and making it difficult for airlines to build schedules for jets often used in international travel. The plane maker has faced increased scrutiny internally, by air-safety regulators and lawmakers after two of its 737 MAX jets crashed in 2018 and 2019, claiming 346 lives.</p>\n<p>A Boeing spokeswoman said work continues at its Dreamliner factory and production “rates will continue to be dynamic” as the manufacturer focuses on resuming normal assembly, performs inspections and repairs finished aircraft awaiting delivery.</p>\n<p>Boeing is increasingly likely to restart handing over new Dreamliners to its customers in February or March at the earliest, longer than previously anticipated, people familiar with the matter said.</p>\n<p>The company has been seeking Federal Aviation Administration approval for its proposed pre-delivery inspections to ensure new aircraft meet federal rules and match Boeing’s regulator-approved designs. An FAA spokesman said the agency won’t sign off on inspections until its safety experts are satisfied.</p>\n<p>“This is a case of us looking at every single aspect of design and manufacturing with the airplane, making sure that we’re complying, we’re conforming to the design and we will bring that airplane back as soon as that makes sense,” Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s commercial sales chief, said Nov. 13 at an air show in Dubai.</p>\n<p>In an Oct. 27 call with analysts, Chief Executive David Calhoun said&nbsp;defective titanium parts&nbsp;were the “long pole in the tent” among remaining production problems to address.</p>\n<p>The door issue has since emerged as the most vexing among Boeing’s 787 problems, people familiar with the matter said. Other defects being addressed are related to items such as certain aluminum parts and windows, some of these people said. Boeing&nbsp;has largely been dealing with tiny gaps&nbsp;where sections of the aircraft join together. Such gaps could lead to premature fatigue that may require repairs sooner than anticipated.</p>\n<p>The Boeing spokeswoman said the company is confident its approach would lead to stability in its 787 production. “We are taking the time needed to ensure the highest levels of quality,” she said.</p>\n<p>None of the defects being addressed pose immediate safety concerns with Dreamliners currently flying, the Boeing spokeswoman said.</p>\n<p>With deliveries largely halted since October 2020, the Chicago-based aerospace giant said it had built up an inventory of 105 Dreamliners as of the end of the third quarter this year, according to securities filings. The undelivered jets are worth more than $25 billion.</p>\n<p>The delivery halt has choked off an important source of cash flow for Boeing as it emerges from the coronavirus pandemic’s blow to aircraft demand. It is also complicating airlines’ plans as international travel rebounds. Dreamliners are Boeing’s flagship wide-body jets and are often used on long-haul flights.</p>\n<p>American Airlines Group&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;said it had trimmed its flying plans due to the delayed arrival of its new 787s.</p>\n<p>“Due to the continued uncertainty in the delivery schedule, we have proactively removed these aircraft from our winter schedule to minimize potential passenger disruption,” Derek Kerr, the airline’s finance chief, said on an Oct. 21 earnings call.</p>\n<p>The FAA launched a broad review of Boeing’s Dreamliner production in late 2020.</p>\n<p>On Thursday, Democratic and Republican leaders of the U.S. House Transportation Committee and its aviation subcommittee requested that the Department of Transportation’s inspector general review the FAA’s manufacturing oversight and “the effectiveness of the FAA’s actions to resolve 787 production issues,” according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.</p>\n<p>Representatives of the DOT’s inspector general’s office didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing Dreamliner Defects Bog Down Production</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing Dreamliner Defects Bog Down Production\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-19 23:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Boeing stock dropped 4% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;Boeing Dreamliner defected bog down production.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c6c1e62a6a6a253da601f54af830508\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Boeing&nbsp;Co.&nbsp;has further slowed production of 787 Dreamliners as&nbsp;it addresses defects&nbsp;that&nbsp;are delaying deliveries of new jets&nbsp;and complicating airlines’ plans, people familiar with the matter said.</p>\n<p>The plane maker is holding off completing the new wide-body jets at its North Charleston, S.C., factory as workers and engineers address problems related to areas surrounding passenger and cargo doors on aircraft already under construction, these people said.</p>\n<p>The latest production slowdown began in recent days and could last a few weeks as Boeing seeks expertise from other aerospace manufacturers in addressing the door issue, some of these people said. In late October, Boeing disclosed it was producing about two Dreamliners a month, down from a planned monthly rate of five,to resolve production issues.</p>\n<p>A string of production snafus has hampered Boeing’s ability to deliver new Dreamliners for much of the last year, fueling the manufacturer’s financial losses and making it difficult for airlines to build schedules for jets often used in international travel. The plane maker has faced increased scrutiny internally, by air-safety regulators and lawmakers after two of its 737 MAX jets crashed in 2018 and 2019, claiming 346 lives.</p>\n<p>A Boeing spokeswoman said work continues at its Dreamliner factory and production “rates will continue to be dynamic” as the manufacturer focuses on resuming normal assembly, performs inspections and repairs finished aircraft awaiting delivery.</p>\n<p>Boeing is increasingly likely to restart handing over new Dreamliners to its customers in February or March at the earliest, longer than previously anticipated, people familiar with the matter said.</p>\n<p>The company has been seeking Federal Aviation Administration approval for its proposed pre-delivery inspections to ensure new aircraft meet federal rules and match Boeing’s regulator-approved designs. An FAA spokesman said the agency won’t sign off on inspections until its safety experts are satisfied.</p>\n<p>“This is a case of us looking at every single aspect of design and manufacturing with the airplane, making sure that we’re complying, we’re conforming to the design and we will bring that airplane back as soon as that makes sense,” Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s commercial sales chief, said Nov. 13 at an air show in Dubai.</p>\n<p>In an Oct. 27 call with analysts, Chief Executive David Calhoun said&nbsp;defective titanium parts&nbsp;were the “long pole in the tent” among remaining production problems to address.</p>\n<p>The door issue has since emerged as the most vexing among Boeing’s 787 problems, people familiar with the matter said. Other defects being addressed are related to items such as certain aluminum parts and windows, some of these people said. Boeing&nbsp;has largely been dealing with tiny gaps&nbsp;where sections of the aircraft join together. Such gaps could lead to premature fatigue that may require repairs sooner than anticipated.</p>\n<p>The Boeing spokeswoman said the company is confident its approach would lead to stability in its 787 production. “We are taking the time needed to ensure the highest levels of quality,” she said.</p>\n<p>None of the defects being addressed pose immediate safety concerns with Dreamliners currently flying, the Boeing spokeswoman said.</p>\n<p>With deliveries largely halted since October 2020, the Chicago-based aerospace giant said it had built up an inventory of 105 Dreamliners as of the end of the third quarter this year, according to securities filings. The undelivered jets are worth more than $25 billion.</p>\n<p>The delivery halt has choked off an important source of cash flow for Boeing as it emerges from the coronavirus pandemic’s blow to aircraft demand. It is also complicating airlines’ plans as international travel rebounds. Dreamliners are Boeing’s flagship wide-body jets and are often used on long-haul flights.</p>\n<p>American Airlines Group&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;said it had trimmed its flying plans due to the delayed arrival of its new 787s.</p>\n<p>“Due to the continued uncertainty in the delivery schedule, we have proactively removed these aircraft from our winter schedule to minimize potential passenger disruption,” Derek Kerr, the airline’s finance chief, said on an Oct. 21 earnings call.</p>\n<p>The FAA launched a broad review of Boeing’s Dreamliner production in late 2020.</p>\n<p>On Thursday, Democratic and Republican leaders of the U.S. House Transportation Committee and its aviation subcommittee requested that the Department of Transportation’s inspector general review the FAA’s manufacturing oversight and “the effectiveness of the FAA’s actions to resolve 787 production issues,” according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.</p>\n<p>Representatives of the DOT’s inspector general’s office didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114542201","content_text":"Boeing stock dropped 4% in morning trading as Boeing Dreamliner defected bog down production.\n\nBoeing Co. has further slowed production of 787 Dreamliners as it addresses defects that are delaying deliveries of new jets and complicating airlines’ plans, people familiar with the matter said.\nThe plane maker is holding off completing the new wide-body jets at its North Charleston, S.C., factory as workers and engineers address problems related to areas surrounding passenger and cargo doors on aircraft already under construction, these people said.\nThe latest production slowdown began in recent days and could last a few weeks as Boeing seeks expertise from other aerospace manufacturers in addressing the door issue, some of these people said. In late October, Boeing disclosed it was producing about two Dreamliners a month, down from a planned monthly rate of five,to resolve production issues.\nA string of production snafus has hampered Boeing’s ability to deliver new Dreamliners for much of the last year, fueling the manufacturer’s financial losses and making it difficult for airlines to build schedules for jets often used in international travel. The plane maker has faced increased scrutiny internally, by air-safety regulators and lawmakers after two of its 737 MAX jets crashed in 2018 and 2019, claiming 346 lives.\nA Boeing spokeswoman said work continues at its Dreamliner factory and production “rates will continue to be dynamic” as the manufacturer focuses on resuming normal assembly, performs inspections and repairs finished aircraft awaiting delivery.\nBoeing is increasingly likely to restart handing over new Dreamliners to its customers in February or March at the earliest, longer than previously anticipated, people familiar with the matter said.\nThe company has been seeking Federal Aviation Administration approval for its proposed pre-delivery inspections to ensure new aircraft meet federal rules and match Boeing’s regulator-approved designs. An FAA spokesman said the agency won’t sign off on inspections until its safety experts are satisfied.\n“This is a case of us looking at every single aspect of design and manufacturing with the airplane, making sure that we’re complying, we’re conforming to the design and we will bring that airplane back as soon as that makes sense,” Ihssane Mounir, Boeing’s commercial sales chief, said Nov. 13 at an air show in Dubai.\nIn an Oct. 27 call with analysts, Chief Executive David Calhoun said defective titanium parts were the “long pole in the tent” among remaining production problems to address.\nThe door issue has since emerged as the most vexing among Boeing’s 787 problems, people familiar with the matter said. Other defects being addressed are related to items such as certain aluminum parts and windows, some of these people said. Boeing has largely been dealing with tiny gaps where sections of the aircraft join together. Such gaps could lead to premature fatigue that may require repairs sooner than anticipated.\nThe Boeing spokeswoman said the company is confident its approach would lead to stability in its 787 production. “We are taking the time needed to ensure the highest levels of quality,” she said.\nNone of the defects being addressed pose immediate safety concerns with Dreamliners currently flying, the Boeing spokeswoman said.\nWith deliveries largely halted since October 2020, the Chicago-based aerospace giant said it had built up an inventory of 105 Dreamliners as of the end of the third quarter this year, according to securities filings. The undelivered jets are worth more than $25 billion.\nThe delivery halt has choked off an important source of cash flow for Boeing as it emerges from the coronavirus pandemic’s blow to aircraft demand. It is also complicating airlines’ plans as international travel rebounds. Dreamliners are Boeing’s flagship wide-body jets and are often used on long-haul flights.\nAmerican Airlines Group Inc. said it had trimmed its flying plans due to the delayed arrival of its new 787s.\n“Due to the continued uncertainty in the delivery schedule, we have proactively removed these aircraft from our winter schedule to minimize potential passenger disruption,” Derek Kerr, the airline’s finance chief, said on an Oct. 21 earnings call.\nThe FAA launched a broad review of Boeing’s Dreamliner production in late 2020.\nOn Thursday, Democratic and Republican leaders of the U.S. House Transportation Committee and its aviation subcommittee requested that the Department of Transportation’s inspector general review the FAA’s manufacturing oversight and “the effectiveness of the FAA’s actions to resolve 787 production issues,” according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.\nRepresentatives of the DOT’s inspector general’s office didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828199105,"gmtCreate":1633857435043,"gmtModify":1633857435202,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828199105","repostId":"2174892254","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867443069,"gmtCreate":1633310648934,"gmtModify":1633310649405,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867443069","repostId":"2172313961","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832027294,"gmtCreate":1629546562918,"gmtModify":1633684098767,"author":{"id":"3568071651427696","authorId":"3568071651427696","name":"Pigmonkey","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3402225c0172781df7553e20722ebad7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568071651427696","authorIdStr":"3568071651427696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832027294","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p>\n<p>In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p>\n<p>The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p>\n<p>Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p>\n<p>A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p>\n<p>Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p>\n<p>You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p>\n<p><b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p>\n<p>“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p>\n<p>“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p>\n<p>He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p>\n<p>All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p>\n<p><b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p>\n<p>All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p>\n<p>In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p>\n<p>These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p>\n<p><b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p>\n<p>This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p>\n<p>This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p>\n<p><b>The stocks to buy</b></p>\n<p>Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p>\n<p><b>New management plays</b></p>\n<p>Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p>\n<p>Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p>\n<p><b>A data center and gaming play</b></p>\n<p>Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p>\n<p><b>Design tool companies</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p>\n<p>Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p>\n<p><b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p>\n<p>To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p>\n<p>In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p>\n<p><b>Oversupply</b></p>\n<p>Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p>\n<p>The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p>\n<p>Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p>\n<p>Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p>\n<p><b>A disturbing signal</b></p>\n<p>A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p>\n<p>Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p>\n<p>But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p>\n<p>Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p>\n<p>Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 22:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CDNS":"铿腾电子","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊","SSNLF":"三星电子","SNPS":"新思科技","TSM":"台积电","QCOM":"高通","ASML":"阿斯麦","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","ON":"安森美半导体","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. 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