ortiz的个人主页 - 老虎社区

ortiz

ortiz

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

1关注

44粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-12-30

Lol pton

3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能上涨5倍</blockquote>

2021-12-16

Just buy gaming crypto

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-09

Follow them and you lose money

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-25

Motley fool is a joke

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-20

I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio

The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了</blockquote>

2021-04-02

Motley fool? lol

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-03-19

Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-15

Nio easy

Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3569050312475646","uuid":"3569050312475646","gmtCreate":1605967009087,"gmtModify":1617373700136,"name":"ortiz","pinyin":"ortiz","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":44,"headSize":1,"tweetSize":8,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.23","exceedPercentage":"80.39%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.20","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":692396363,"gmtCreate":1640840833261,"gmtModify":1640840833726,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol pton","listText":"Lol pton","text":"Lol pton","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692396363","repostId":"1141552384","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1141552384","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640836019,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141552384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 11:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能上涨5倍</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141552384","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"If you're ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If you&#39;re ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果您准备好在2022年观望，您不妨为自己配备一些在未来一年可以走得更远的股票。当你能碾压市场时，为什么要打败市场？</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Voyager Digital</b>(OTC:VYGV.F)and <b>Camping World Holdings</b>(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let&#39;s go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON），<b>航海家</b>（场外交易代码：VYGV.F）和<b>露营世界控股公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CWH）是我认为将在2022年击败市场的三只成长型股票。让我们回顾一下为什么我认为这些投资在未来一年有可能增长五倍。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b921271c793dcac0a4cef0e9c93f8376\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：PELOTON互动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>1. Peloton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一排</b></blockquote></p><p>You don&#39;t need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday&#39;s close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要是数学专业的学生就能知道Peloton在2022年升值五倍需要什么。自11个月前达到峰值以来，该股截至周二收盘已下跌近80%。它所要做的就是打破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market&#39;s doghouse. It&#39;s been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家失宠的公司来说，这是一项艰巨的任务，而这家高级家庭健身专家显然处于市场的狗窝中。对于Peloton来说，这是一系列不幸的事件。11个月前，就在应对流行病的疫苗上市时，该股达到顶峰。随着健身中心和动感单车精品店的重新开业，人们不再需要在真正的家庭代理上进行四位数的投资。</blockquote></p><p>Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the <i>Sex in the City</i> spin off <i>And Just Like That</i> killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.</p><p><blockquote>事情变得更糟了。在发生了几起涉及幼儿和宠物的悲惨事故后，它不得不召回其跑步机。近日首映的<i>欲望都市</i>分拆<i>就像那样</i>在Peloton锻炼后杀死了一个主角，即使Peloton确实通过快速扭转一个精彩的反广告从中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.</p><p><blockquote>从财务上来说，Peloton陷入了恐慌。在经历了几年三位数的营收增长后，该公司现已连续发布财务报告称，锻炼总次数和收入连续下降。指导也是有问题的，没有启发。该股本月继续遭到抛售，周二创下52周新低。投资者正在收获税收损失，而投资组合经理则在粉饰门面。</blockquote></p><p>But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>但是为什么没有人关注新冠肺炎病例的快速激增呢？随着第五次激增的加速，我们可能不会很快取消我们的互联健身Peloton订阅。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Voyager Digital</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.航海家数码</b></blockquote></p><p>You won&#39;t find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren&#39;t typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money&#39;s adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现太多上市公司的增长速度比Voyager Digital更快。该加密货币平台的有机收入在最近一个季度飙升了3,280%，此前在截至6月的2021财年增长了15,122%。这些不是错别字。上个月资金账户总数超过了100万，而且资金还在迅速增加。Voyager管理的总资产从6月底的26亿美元增长到9月底的43亿美元，到11月中旬接近70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Voyager isn&#39;t a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn&#39;t tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.</p><p><blockquote>航海家号本身并不是一个交易交易所。它通过十几家交易所和做市商外包客户订单。它不收取佣金，但如果其智能订单路由平台能够提供比报价更好的价格，Voyager确实会从中分一杯羹。最吸引人的是，它可以让加密货币交易者从闲置的代币和代币中赚取高达12%的年化利息。</blockquote></p><p>Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司拥有更大的客户基础，增长将不可避免地放缓，但分析师也认为该公司本财年将实现盈利。只要加密货币仍然受欢迎，并且Voyager不断达成明智的平台拓展交易，该股相对于目前25亿美元的市值还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Camping World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.露营世界</b></blockquote></p><p>You can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It&#39;s the top dog, and it&#39;s perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.</p><p><blockquote>您可以在同一勺中获得巨大的增长和丰厚的股息。Camping World经营着一家连锁超市，销售休闲车(RV)和相关必需品。它是领头羊，并且通过收购较小的区域参与者不断扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>业务在去年5月左右开始回升，因为人们意识到疫情将持续一段时间，他们需要一种在阵亡将士纪念日周末、即将到来的夏季及以后安全旅行的方式。</blockquote></p><p>Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World&#39;s latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>它的业务继续发展。Camping World已连续五个季度实现两位数收入增长，其中最新报告中的收入增长了14%。对房车的持续兴趣（包括退休人员、富人和意识到混合工作场所的未来意味着能够在保住工作的同时环游全国的人们）以及新房、尤其是二手房价格的上涨车轮保持市场向前发展。利润率正在扩大，Camping World最近一个季度的净利润增长了22%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn&#39;t expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn&#39;t expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We&#39;re already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来看看好东西。详细说明Camping World的论点，您不会期望找到一只股票的售价仅为预期市盈率的六倍。你也不会想到一项投资最近将季度股息支付翻了一番，目前收益率为5%。我们已经开始了两位数的增长。如果Camping World能够继续以其弹性给市场带来惊喜，那么这是一只可以上涨五倍且定价仍然合理的股票。找到钥匙。拿出来试驾一下。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能上涨5倍</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能上涨5倍</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If you&#39;re ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果您准备好在2022年观望，您不妨为自己配备一些在未来一年可以走得更远的股票。当你能碾压市场时，为什么要打败市场？</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Voyager Digital</b>(OTC:VYGV.F)and <b>Camping World Holdings</b>(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let&#39;s go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON），<b>航海家</b>（场外交易代码：VYGV.F）和<b>露营世界控股公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CWH）是我认为将在2022年击败市场的三只成长型股票。让我们回顾一下为什么我认为这些投资在未来一年有可能增长五倍。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b921271c793dcac0a4cef0e9c93f8376\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：PELOTON互动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>1. Peloton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一排</b></blockquote></p><p>You don&#39;t need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday&#39;s close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要是数学专业的学生就能知道Peloton在2022年升值五倍需要什么。自11个月前达到峰值以来，该股截至周二收盘已下跌近80%。它所要做的就是打破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market&#39;s doghouse. It&#39;s been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家失宠的公司来说，这是一项艰巨的任务，而这家高级家庭健身专家显然处于市场的狗窝中。对于Peloton来说，这是一系列不幸的事件。11个月前，就在应对流行病的疫苗上市时，该股达到顶峰。随着健身中心和动感单车精品店的重新开业，人们不再需要在真正的家庭代理上进行四位数的投资。</blockquote></p><p>Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the <i>Sex in the City</i> spin off <i>And Just Like That</i> killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.</p><p><blockquote>事情变得更糟了。在发生了几起涉及幼儿和宠物的悲惨事故后，它不得不召回其跑步机。近日首映的<i>欲望都市</i>分拆<i>就像那样</i>在Peloton锻炼后杀死了一个主角，即使Peloton确实通过快速扭转一个精彩的反广告从中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.</p><p><blockquote>从财务上来说，Peloton陷入了恐慌。在经历了几年三位数的营收增长后，该公司现已连续发布财务报告称，锻炼总次数和收入连续下降。指导也是有问题的，没有启发。该股本月继续遭到抛售，周二创下52周新低。投资者正在收获税收损失，而投资组合经理则在粉饰门面。</blockquote></p><p>But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>但是为什么没有人关注新冠肺炎病例的快速激增呢？随着第五次激增的加速，我们可能不会很快取消我们的互联健身Peloton订阅。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Voyager Digital</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.航海家数码</b></blockquote></p><p>You won&#39;t find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren&#39;t typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money&#39;s adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现太多上市公司的增长速度比Voyager Digital更快。该加密货币平台的有机收入在最近一个季度飙升了3,280%，此前在截至6月的2021财年增长了15,122%。这些不是错别字。上个月资金账户总数超过了100万，而且资金还在迅速增加。Voyager管理的总资产从6月底的26亿美元增长到9月底的43亿美元，到11月中旬接近70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Voyager isn&#39;t a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn&#39;t tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.</p><p><blockquote>航海家号本身并不是一个交易交易所。它通过十几家交易所和做市商外包客户订单。它不收取佣金，但如果其智能订单路由平台能够提供比报价更好的价格，Voyager确实会从中分一杯羹。最吸引人的是，它可以让加密货币交易者从闲置的代币和代币中赚取高达12%的年化利息。</blockquote></p><p>Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司拥有更大的客户基础，增长将不可避免地放缓，但分析师也认为该公司本财年将实现盈利。只要加密货币仍然受欢迎，并且Voyager不断达成明智的平台拓展交易，该股相对于目前25亿美元的市值还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Camping World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.露营世界</b></blockquote></p><p>You can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It&#39;s the top dog, and it&#39;s perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.</p><p><blockquote>您可以在同一勺中获得巨大的增长和丰厚的股息。Camping World经营着一家连锁超市，销售休闲车(RV)和相关必需品。它是领头羊，并且通过收购较小的区域参与者不断扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>业务在去年5月左右开始回升，因为人们意识到疫情将持续一段时间，他们需要一种在阵亡将士纪念日周末、即将到来的夏季及以后安全旅行的方式。</blockquote></p><p>Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World&#39;s latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>它的业务继续发展。Camping World已连续五个季度实现两位数收入增长，其中最新报告中的收入增长了14%。对房车的持续兴趣（包括退休人员、富人和意识到混合工作场所的未来意味着能够在保住工作的同时环游全国的人们）以及新房、尤其是二手房价格的上涨车轮保持市场向前发展。利润率正在扩大，Camping World最近一个季度的净利润增长了22%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn&#39;t expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn&#39;t expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We&#39;re already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来看看好东西。详细说明Camping World的论点，您不会期望找到一只股票的售价仅为预期市盈率的六倍。你也不会想到一项投资最近将季度股息支付翻了一番，目前收益率为5%。我们已经开始了两位数的增长。如果Camping World能够继续以其弹性给市场带来惊喜，那么这是一只可以上涨五倍且定价仍然合理的股票。找到钥匙。拿出来试驾一下。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/3-growth-stocks-that-could-5x-in-2022/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CWH":"露营世界","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","VYGVF":"Voyager Digital Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/3-growth-stocks-that-could-5x-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141552384","content_text":"If you're ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?Peloton Interactive(NASDAQ:PTON),Voyager Digital(OTC:VYGV.F)and Camping World Holdings(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let's go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.1. PelotonYou don't need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday's close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.It's a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market's doghouse. It's been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the Sex in the City spin off And Just Like That killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.2. Voyager DigitalYou won't find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren't typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money's adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.Voyager isn't a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn't tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.3. Camping WorldYou can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It's the top dog, and it's perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World's latest quarter.Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn't expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn't expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We're already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTON":0.9,"CWH":0.9,"VYGVF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690839203,"gmtCreate":1639652783204,"gmtModify":1639654731398,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just buy gaming crypto","listText":"Just buy gaming crypto","text":"Just buy gaming crypto","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690839203","repostId":"1144821920","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602286898,"gmtCreate":1639026557175,"gmtModify":1639026925730,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Follow them and you lose money","listText":"Follow them and you lose money","text":"Follow them and you lose money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602286898","repostId":"2189667447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":138182808,"gmtCreate":1621917787004,"gmtModify":1634185496587,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Motley fool is a joke","listText":"Motley fool is a joke","text":"Motley fool is a joke","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138182808","repostId":"2137132568","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371040032,"gmtCreate":1618895417226,"gmtModify":1634290063568,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio&nbsp;","listText":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio&nbsp;","text":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371040032","repostId":"1149811397","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149811397","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618893361,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149811397?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 12:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149811397","media":"The Street","summary":"At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid","content":"<p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYF</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。本文股票报价：DFLYF</blockquote></p><p>If you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?</p><p><blockquote>如果你还没有意识到，最近市场的转变将考验你的信念。还记得几周前您喜欢的小盘股或动量股吗？你更喜欢下跌20%或30%，还是你想退出？</blockquote></p><p>We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?</p><p><blockquote>我们觉得自己被困在了一个千刀万剐的交易环境中。虽然指数接近高点，但我的动量观察列表已经大幅下跌。这就是信念问题发挥作用的时候。你不仅知道你拥有什么，还知道你为什么拥有它吗？</blockquote></p><p>The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了。当你仅仅因为其他一切都围绕着它而从一次糟糕的购买中解脱出来时，你就养成了坏习惯。您购买股票而不是公司。当你交易时这很好，如果你持有就没那么好了。</blockquote></p><p>I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.</p><p><blockquote>我知道我持有的许多中小型股都受到了打击，但我并没有因此而失眠。我看着流血会不会有点烦？当然可以。那很自然。但我不会拔掉插头，除非故事发生变化。这在很大程度上围绕着整个市场。我的大多数被击败的小选择只是六个被抨击的几千个。他们失败并不是因为他们的业务出了问题。它们较低是因为市场的风险偏好已经从整个行业和市值规模转移。</blockquote></p><p>It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们继续下跌，我可能会补充。幸运的是，我没有利用任何东西来拥有这些名字。我能看着它们归零而不改变我的生活吗？是也不是。在经济上，我仍然可以支付账单并继续我同样的生活方式。情感上，如果我骑到零，我会踢自己。这意味着我错过了故事中的一个变化，或者更糟，忽略了它。</blockquote></p><p>However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我查看像Draganfly(DFLYF)这样的小公司（一家在周末公布收益的公司）时，我发现他们的收入增长了200%以上，达到了预测的目标范围，其运行率指向另一个200%-300%2021年收入增长，并继续执行。尽管如此，股价在过去六周内已减半。故事或财务模型没有任何变化，所以如果技术因素是我的驱动因素，我只是这里的卖家。我很少（如果有的话）让技术人员来驾驶我计划持有数月或数年的小型或微型股票。</blockquote></p><p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但目前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。在卖方，你可能需要发痒的扳机手指。如果你打算在没有纪律的情况下购买名字，那么确保你购买的是你相信的故事，并且你密切关注这些故事。当它们发生变化时，你需要准备好退出，如果股票受到不公平的打击，那么你应该准备好补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-20 12:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYF</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。本文股票报价：DFLYF</blockquote></p><p>If you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?</p><p><blockquote>如果你还没有意识到，最近市场的转变将考验你的信念。还记得几周前您喜欢的小盘股或动量股吗？你更喜欢下跌20%或30%，还是你想退出？</blockquote></p><p>We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?</p><p><blockquote>我们觉得自己被困在了一个千刀万剐的交易环境中。虽然指数接近高点，但我的动量观察列表已经大幅下跌。这就是信念问题发挥作用的时候。你不仅知道你拥有什么，还知道你为什么拥有它吗？</blockquote></p><p>The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了。当你仅仅因为其他一切都围绕着它而从一次糟糕的购买中解脱出来时，你就养成了坏习惯。您购买股票而不是公司。当你交易时这很好，如果你持有就没那么好了。</blockquote></p><p>I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.</p><p><blockquote>我知道我持有的许多中小型股都受到了打击，但我并没有因此而失眠。我看着流血会不会有点烦？当然可以。那很自然。但我不会拔掉插头，除非故事发生变化。这在很大程度上围绕着整个市场。我的大多数被击败的小选择只是六个被抨击的几千个。他们失败并不是因为他们的业务出了问题。它们较低是因为市场的风险偏好已经从整个行业和市值规模转移。</blockquote></p><p>It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们继续下跌，我可能会补充。幸运的是，我没有利用任何东西来拥有这些名字。我能看着它们归零而不改变我的生活吗？是也不是。在经济上，我仍然可以支付账单并继续我同样的生活方式。情感上，如果我骑到零，我会踢自己。这意味着我错过了故事中的一个变化，或者更糟，忽略了它。</blockquote></p><p>However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我查看像Draganfly(DFLYF)这样的小公司（一家在周末公布收益的公司）时，我发现他们的收入增长了200%以上，达到了预测的目标范围，其运行率指向另一个200%-300%2021年收入增长，并继续执行。尽管如此，股价在过去六周内已减半。故事或财务模型没有任何变化，所以如果技术因素是我的驱动因素，我只是这里的卖家。我很少（如果有的话）让技术人员来驾驶我计划持有数月或数年的小型或微型股票。</blockquote></p><p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但目前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。在卖方，你可能需要发痒的扳机手指。如果你打算在没有纪律的情况下购买名字，那么确保你购买的是你相信的故事，并且你密切关注这些故事。当它们发生变化时，你需要准备好退出，如果股票受到不公平的打击，那么你应该准备好补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-market-has-been-forgiving-for-way-too-long-15628221\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-market-has-been-forgiving-for-way-too-long-15628221","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149811397","content_text":"At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYFIf you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340882043,"gmtCreate":1617372303082,"gmtModify":1634521199734,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Motley fool? lol","listText":"Motley fool? lol","text":"Motley fool? lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340882043","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327212866,"gmtCreate":1616086203055,"gmtModify":1634527284936,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients&nbsp;","listText":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients&nbsp;","text":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327212866","repostId":"1172934216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322163079,"gmtCreate":1615783751291,"gmtModify":1703492895411,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio easy","listText":"Nio easy","text":"Nio easy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322163079","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":138182808,"gmtCreate":1621917787004,"gmtModify":1634185496587,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Motley fool is a joke","listText":"Motley fool is a joke","text":"Motley fool is a joke","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138182808","repostId":"2137132568","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":602286898,"gmtCreate":1639026557175,"gmtModify":1639026925730,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Follow them and you lose money","listText":"Follow them and you lose money","text":"Follow them and you lose money","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602286898","repostId":"2189667447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327212866,"gmtCreate":1616086203055,"gmtModify":1634527284936,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients&nbsp;","listText":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients&nbsp;","text":"Hedge fund are just sector rotating to satisfy their boomer clients","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327212866","repostId":"1172934216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":690839203,"gmtCreate":1639652783204,"gmtModify":1639654731398,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just buy gaming crypto","listText":"Just buy gaming crypto","text":"Just buy gaming crypto","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690839203","repostId":"1144821920","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371040032,"gmtCreate":1618895417226,"gmtModify":1634290063568,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio&nbsp;","listText":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio&nbsp;","text":"I got a seizure everytime I look at my portfolio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371040032","repostId":"1149811397","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149811397","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618893361,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149811397?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-20 12:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149811397","media":"The Street","summary":"At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid","content":"<p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYF</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。本文股票报价：DFLYF</blockquote></p><p>If you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?</p><p><blockquote>如果你还没有意识到，最近市场的转变将考验你的信念。还记得几周前您喜欢的小盘股或动量股吗？你更喜欢下跌20%或30%，还是你想退出？</blockquote></p><p>We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?</p><p><blockquote>我们觉得自己被困在了一个千刀万剐的交易环境中。虽然指数接近高点，但我的动量观察列表已经大幅下跌。这就是信念问题发挥作用的时候。你不仅知道你拥有什么，还知道你为什么拥有它吗？</blockquote></p><p>The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了。当你仅仅因为其他一切都围绕着它而从一次糟糕的购买中解脱出来时，你就养成了坏习惯。您购买股票而不是公司。当你交易时这很好，如果你持有就没那么好了。</blockquote></p><p>I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.</p><p><blockquote>我知道我持有的许多中小型股都受到了打击，但我并没有因此而失眠。我看着流血会不会有点烦？当然可以。那很自然。但我不会拔掉插头，除非故事发生变化。这在很大程度上围绕着整个市场。我的大多数被击败的小选择只是六个被抨击的几千个。他们失败并不是因为他们的业务出了问题。它们较低是因为市场的风险偏好已经从整个行业和市值规模转移。</blockquote></p><p>It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们继续下跌，我可能会补充。幸运的是，我没有利用任何东西来拥有这些名字。我能看着它们归零而不改变我的生活吗？是也不是。在经济上，我仍然可以支付账单并继续我同样的生活方式。情感上，如果我骑到零，我会踢自己。这意味着我错过了故事中的一个变化，或者更糟，忽略了它。</blockquote></p><p>However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我查看像Draganfly(DFLYF)这样的小公司（一家在周末公布收益的公司）时，我发现他们的收入增长了200%以上，达到了预测的目标范围，其运行率指向另一个200%-300%2021年收入增长，并继续执行。尽管如此，股价在过去六周内已减半。故事或财务模型没有任何变化，所以如果技术因素是我的驱动因素，我只是这里的卖家。我很少（如果有的话）让技术人员来驾驶我计划持有数月或数年的小型或微型股票。</blockquote></p><p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但目前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。在卖方，你可能需要发痒的扳机手指。如果你打算在没有纪律的情况下购买名字，那么确保你购买的是你相信的故事，并且你密切关注这些故事。当它们发生变化时，你需要准备好退出，如果股票受到不公平的打击，那么你应该准备好补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Market Has Been Forgiving for Way Too Long<blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-20 12:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYF</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但当前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。本文股票报价：DFLYF</blockquote></p><p>If you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?</p><p><blockquote>如果你还没有意识到，最近市场的转变将考验你的信念。还记得几周前您喜欢的小盘股或动量股吗？你更喜欢下跌20%或30%，还是你想退出？</blockquote></p><p>We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?</p><p><blockquote>我们觉得自己被困在了一个千刀万剐的交易环境中。虽然指数接近高点，但我的动量观察列表已经大幅下跌。这就是信念问题发挥作用的时候。你不仅知道你拥有什么，还知道你为什么拥有它吗？</blockquote></p><p>The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经宽容太久了。当你仅仅因为其他一切都围绕着它而从一次糟糕的购买中解脱出来时，你就养成了坏习惯。您购买股票而不是公司。当你交易时这很好，如果你持有就没那么好了。</blockquote></p><p>I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.</p><p><blockquote>我知道我持有的许多中小型股都受到了打击，但我并没有因此而失眠。我看着流血会不会有点烦？当然可以。那很自然。但我不会拔掉插头，除非故事发生变化。这在很大程度上围绕着整个市场。我的大多数被击败的小选择只是六个被抨击的几千个。他们失败并不是因为他们的业务出了问题。它们较低是因为市场的风险偏好已经从整个行业和市值规模转移。</blockquote></p><p>It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.</p><p><blockquote>随着我们继续下跌，我可能会补充。幸运的是，我没有利用任何东西来拥有这些名字。我能看着它们归零而不改变我的生活吗？是也不是。在经济上，我仍然可以支付账单并继续我同样的生活方式。情感上，如果我骑到零，我会踢自己。这意味着我错过了故事中的一个变化，或者更糟，忽略了它。</blockquote></p><p>However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当我查看像Draganfly(DFLYF)这样的小公司（一家在周末公布收益的公司）时，我发现他们的收入增长了200%以上，达到了预测的目标范围，其运行率指向另一个200%-300%2021年收入增长，并继续执行。尽管如此，股价在过去六周内已减半。故事或财务模型没有任何变化，所以如果技术因素是我的驱动因素，我只是这里的卖家。我很少（如果有的话）让技术人员来驾驶我计划持有数月或数年的小型或微型股票。</blockquote></p><p>At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.</p><p><blockquote>在某个时候，势头和泡沫交易者将会回归，但目前的行动应该是一个坚实的教训。在卖方，你可能需要发痒的扳机手指。如果你打算在没有纪律的情况下购买名字，那么确保你购买的是你相信的故事，并且你密切关注这些故事。当它们发生变化时，你需要准备好退出，如果股票受到不公平的打击，那么你应该准备好补充。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-market-has-been-forgiving-for-way-too-long-15628221\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/the-market-has-been-forgiving-for-way-too-long-15628221","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149811397","content_text":"At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson.Stocks quotes in this article:DFLYFIf you haven't realized it already, the recent shift of the market will put convictions to test. Remember that small-cap or momentum stock you loved a few weeks ago? Do you love it more down 20% or 30% or are you hitting eject?We feel like we're trapped in a death by a thousand papercuts trading environment. While indexes are near highs, my momentum watchlists have bled lower a considerable amount. This is when a question of conviction comes into play. Do you not only know what you own but why you own it?The market has been forgiving for way too long. When you can get bailed out of a bad purchase simply because everything else rallied around it, you develop bad habits. You buy tickers instead of companies. That's fine when you are trading, not so much if you're holding.I know I'm getting beat up on many of my small and midcap holdings, but I'm not losing sleep over it. Do I get a bit annoyed watching the bleed? Of course. That's natural. But I won't pull the plug unless the story changes. Much of that revolves around the market as a whole. Most of my small picks that are getting beat up are just a half-dozen of thousands that have gotten slammed. They aren't down because something in their business misfired. They are lower because the risk appetite for the market has shifted away from entire sectors and market cap sizes.It's possible I'll add as we continue to fall. Fortunately, I haven't leveraged anything to own the names. Could I watch them go to zero and not have my life altered? Yes and no. Financially, I could still pay my bills and continue my same lifestyle. Emotionally, I'll kick myself if I ride anything to zero. That means I missed a change in the story, or worse, ignored it.However, when I look at a small name like Draganfly (DFLYF) , a company that reported earnings over the weekend, I see they grew revenues over 200%, hit the target range of their forecasts, have a run rate that points to another 200%-300% revenue gains for 2021, and continues to execute. Despite this, shares have been cut in half over the past six weeks. Nothing changed in terms of the story or the financial models, so I'm only a seller here if technicals are my driving factors. Rarely, if ever, do I let technicals drive the bus for a small or microcap stock that I plan to hold for months or years.At some point, the momentum and frothy traders will return, but the current action should be a solid lesson. You'll likely need itchy trigger fingers on the sell side. If you're going to buy names without a disciplined stop, then make sure you're buying stories you believe in and you follow those stories closely. When they change, you need to be ready to bail and if the stocks get unfairly beaten, then you should be ready to add.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340882043,"gmtCreate":1617372303082,"gmtModify":1634521199734,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Motley fool? lol","listText":"Motley fool? lol","text":"Motley fool? lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340882043","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322163079,"gmtCreate":1615783751291,"gmtModify":1703492895411,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio easy","listText":"Nio easy","text":"Nio easy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322163079","repostId":"1161179297","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161179297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615771321,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161179297?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161179297","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.Stocks of electric-vehicle  makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach","content":"<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: NIO vs. XPeng Motors<blockquote>更值得购买：蔚来与小鹏汽车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-15 09:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>即使在股价低迷之后，这两家中国电动汽车制造商的估值也很高。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车(EV)制造商的股票在2020年加速上涨。众所周知，中国电动汽车股票是最受欢迎的股票之一，因为这个全球最大的汽车市场继续向交通领域的电气化迈进。</blockquote></p><p> EV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:NIO)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>XPeng</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，中国电动汽车销量超过100万辆，政府希望到2025年将这一数字增长到500万辆。据研究机构BloombergNEF称，到2030年，这一数字可能达到1000万，到2040年接近2000万。两家希望利用这一扩张的电动汽车制造商是<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和<b>小鹏</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）。投资者可能想知道哪一个更好，尤其是在该行业股价出现调整之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The right market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>合适的市场</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.<b>Tesla</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:TSLA)&nbsp;built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that&nbsp;<b>BYD</b>&nbsp;(OTC:BYDDY)&nbsp;sold in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，世界上最大的汽车市场具有巨大的增长潜力。问题是，将会有很多公司寻求资本化。<b>特斯拉</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）在上海建立第二家制造工厂是有原因的。尽管蔚来和小鹏汽车可能是中国最知名的电动汽车制造商，但它们总共交付了131,000辆纯电动汽车的一半多一点。<b>比亚迪</b>（场外交易代码：比亚迪）2020年售出。</blockquote></p><p> NIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2020年交付了近44,000辆汽车，而小鹏汽车的销量比2019年增加了一倍多，达到27,041辆。两家公司最近都推出了轿车车型，都希望这些车型能够成为未来销售增长的重要推动力。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年初推出以来，小鹏汽车的P7运动型轿车累计交付量已超过20,000辆，超越G3紧凑型SUV成为该公司最受欢迎的汽车。这标志着中国电动汽车初创企业交付20,000辆汽车的最快速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来今年早些时候推出了新款ET7豪华轿车。ET7将于明年初上市，具有一些复杂的功能。时尚的外观包括自动驾驶传感器、“水晶般的心跳”尾灯、全玻璃车顶和数字进入系统，该系统可以延伸齐平把手，并在驾驶员靠近时自动释放车门的“电子锁”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Priced for perfection</b></p><p><blockquote><b>完美定价</b></blockquote></p><p> The strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的销售增长以及中国电动汽车的巨大潜力已经让投资者涌入这些股票。但在蔚来和小鹏汽车的股价去年飙升后，这些股票分别较2021年1月的高点下跌了27%和38%，现在是看看哪一个可能更好买入的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> Neither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The&nbsp;price-to-sales ratios&nbsp;(P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都尚未盈利，因此衡量估值的一种方法是使用销售额而不是收益。市销率（P/S）都非常高，但销售额预计将快速增长，这是比较两家公司的相关指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf721bd77e4fa0e2530b3d2f86034920\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"483\"><span>NIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的蔚来市值数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Though NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来的市值较高，但以市盈率衡量，它的成本低于小鹏汽车。蔚来还通过其电池更换计划对市场采取了独特的方法，允许客户通过更快的电池更换来“充电”。该公司表示，其自动电池交换站只需三分钟即可更换充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Looking ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来凭借ET7进军豪华轿车领域可能有助于将该公司推向一个新的水平。2020年毛利率、毛利润和经营现金流均为正，表明盈利之路在望。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by&nbsp;listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都希望有足够的资本来资助计划的增长工作。截至2020年12月31日，蔚来资产负债表上的现金和现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资为65亿美元，小鹏汽车约为54亿美元。两家公司可以通过在香港联交所上市来筹集更多资金，据报道，两家公司都在考虑上市。</blockquote></p><p> For investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.</p><p><blockquote>对于只想选择一家公司来参与中国电动汽车增长的投资者来说，蔚来似乎是这两家公司中更好的选择。任何投资仍然属于投资组合的投机部分，有可能出现很大的波动。但对于那些能够承受这一点并进行适当投资的人来说，最近股价的下跌使蔚来目前比小鹏汽车更值得买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/14/better-buy-nio-vs-xpeng-motors/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161179297","content_text":"The Chinese electric-vehicle makers both have rich valuations, even after a downturn in share prices.\nStocks of electric-vehicle (EV) makers accelerated in 2020. And it's no secret that Chinese EV stocks were some of the most popular, as the largest automotive market in the world continues to move toward electrification in its transportation sector.\nEV sales in China surpassed 1 million in 2020, and the government hopes to grow that to 5 million by 2025. It could reach 10 million by 2030, and approach 20 million by 2040, according to research organization BloombergNEF. Two electric automakers looking to capitalize on that expansion are NIO (NYSE:NIO) and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV). Investors may be wondering which is the better buy, particularly after a correction has hit share prices in the sector.\nThe right market\nAs noted above, the largest automotive market in the world has much potential forEV growth. The problem is, there will be plenty of companies seeking to capitalize.Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) built its second manufacturing plant in Shanghai for a reason. And though they're maybe the most well-known Chinese EV makers, NIO and XPeng combined delivered only slightly more than half the 131,000 battery-electric vehicles that BYD (OTC:BYDDY) sold in 2020.\nNIO reached almost 44,000 vehicles delivered in 2020, while XPeng more than doubled its volume versus 2019 to 27,041. Both companies have recently introduced sedan models that each hopes will be significant drivers of future sales growth.\nXPeng's P7 sports sedan has surpassed a total of 20,000 cumulative deliveries since its launch in early 2020, as it moves ahead of the G3 compact SUV as the company's most popular vehicle. That marked the fastest pace to 20,000 vehicle deliveries of any Chinese EV start-up.\nNIO introduced its new ET7 luxury sedan earlier this year. The ET7 will be available early next year, and has some intricate features. The sleek exterior includes autonomous driving sensors, a \"crystal-like heartbeat\" tail light, all-glass roof, and a digital entry system that extends the flush handle and automatically releases the door's \"e-latch\" as the driver approaches.\nPriced for perfection\nThe strong sales growth along with massive potential for Chinese EVs had investors already piling into these stocks. But after shares of both NIO and XPeng soared last year, the stocks are off January 2021 highs by 27% and 38% respectively, making now a good time to see which may be the better buy.\nNeither company is profitable yet, so one way to measure valuations is using sales rather than earnings. The price-to-sales ratios (P/S) are both very high, but sales are expected to grow quickly, and it's a relevant metric for comparing the two companies.\nNIO MARKET CAP DATA BY YCHARTS\nThough NIO has the higher market cap, it is less expensive than XPeng as measured by the P/S ratio. NIO also has a unique approach to the market with its battery swap program, which allows customers to \"recharge\" via a faster battery exchange. The company says its automated battery swap stations take only three minutes to produce a fully charged battery replacement.\nLooking ahead\nNIO's push into the luxury sedan segment with its ET7 could help advance the company to the next level. Gross margins, gross profit, and operating cash flow went positive in 2020, indicating the path to profitability is in sight.\nBoth companies look to be adequately capitalized to fund planned growth efforts. As of Dec. 31, 2020, NIO had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investment on its balance sheet, and XPeng had about $5.4 billion. The companies could raise more money by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is reportedly being considered by both.\nFor investors looking to pick just one holding to participate in Chinese EV growth, NIO appears to be the better option of these two companies. Any investment still belongs in the speculative portion of a portfolio, with the potential for much volatility. But for those who can stomach that, and have an appropriate portion invested, the recent drop in shares helps make NIO a better buy than XPeng right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":692396363,"gmtCreate":1640840833261,"gmtModify":1640840833726,"author":{"id":"3569050312475646","authorId":"3569050312475646","name":"ortiz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c34fed4afb9aa375ead5a73c050caef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569050312475646","authorIdStr":"3569050312475646"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol pton","listText":"Lol pton","text":"Lol pton","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692396363","repostId":"1141552384","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1141552384","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640836019,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141552384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 11:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能上涨5倍</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141552384","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"If you're ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If you&#39;re ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果您准备好在2022年观望，您不妨为自己配备一些在未来一年可以走得更远的股票。当你能碾压市场时，为什么要打败市场？</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Voyager Digital</b>(OTC:VYGV.F)and <b>Camping World Holdings</b>(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let&#39;s go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON），<b>航海家</b>（场外交易代码：VYGV.F）和<b>露营世界控股公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CWH）是我认为将在2022年击败市场的三只成长型股票。让我们回顾一下为什么我认为这些投资在未来一年有可能增长五倍。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b921271c793dcac0a4cef0e9c93f8376\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：PELOTON互动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>1. Peloton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一排</b></blockquote></p><p>You don&#39;t need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday&#39;s close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要是数学专业的学生就能知道Peloton在2022年升值五倍需要什么。自11个月前达到峰值以来，该股截至周二收盘已下跌近80%。它所要做的就是打破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market&#39;s doghouse. It&#39;s been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家失宠的公司来说，这是一项艰巨的任务，而这家高级家庭健身专家显然处于市场的狗窝中。对于Peloton来说，这是一系列不幸的事件。11个月前，就在应对流行病的疫苗上市时，该股达到顶峰。随着健身中心和动感单车精品店的重新开业，人们不再需要在真正的家庭代理上进行四位数的投资。</blockquote></p><p>Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the <i>Sex in the City</i> spin off <i>And Just Like That</i> killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.</p><p><blockquote>事情变得更糟了。在发生了几起涉及幼儿和宠物的悲惨事故后，它不得不召回其跑步机。近日首映的<i>欲望都市</i>分拆<i>就像那样</i>在Peloton锻炼后杀死了一个主角，即使Peloton确实通过快速扭转一个精彩的反广告从中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.</p><p><blockquote>从财务上来说，Peloton陷入了恐慌。在经历了几年三位数的营收增长后，该公司现已连续发布财务报告称，锻炼总次数和收入连续下降。指导也是有问题的，没有启发。该股本月继续遭到抛售，周二创下52周新低。投资者正在收获税收损失，而投资组合经理则在粉饰门面。</blockquote></p><p>But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>但是为什么没有人关注新冠肺炎病例的快速激增呢？随着第五次激增的加速，我们可能不会很快取消我们的互联健身Peloton订阅。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Voyager Digital</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.航海家数码</b></blockquote></p><p>You won&#39;t find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren&#39;t typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money&#39;s adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现太多上市公司的增长速度比Voyager Digital更快。该加密货币平台的有机收入在最近一个季度飙升了3,280%，此前在截至6月的2021财年增长了15,122%。这些不是错别字。上个月资金账户总数超过了100万，而且资金还在迅速增加。Voyager管理的总资产从6月底的26亿美元增长到9月底的43亿美元，到11月中旬接近70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Voyager isn&#39;t a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn&#39;t tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.</p><p><blockquote>航海家号本身并不是一个交易交易所。它通过十几家交易所和做市商外包客户订单。它不收取佣金，但如果其智能订单路由平台能够提供比报价更好的价格，Voyager确实会从中分一杯羹。最吸引人的是，它可以让加密货币交易者从闲置的代币和代币中赚取高达12%的年化利息。</blockquote></p><p>Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司拥有更大的客户基础，增长将不可避免地放缓，但分析师也认为该公司本财年将实现盈利。只要加密货币仍然受欢迎，并且Voyager不断达成明智的平台拓展交易，该股相对于目前25亿美元的市值还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Camping World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.露营世界</b></blockquote></p><p>You can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It&#39;s the top dog, and it&#39;s perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.</p><p><blockquote>您可以在同一勺中获得巨大的增长和丰厚的股息。Camping World经营着一家连锁超市，销售休闲车(RV)和相关必需品。它是领头羊，并且通过收购较小的区域参与者不断扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>业务在去年5月左右开始回升，因为人们意识到疫情将持续一段时间，他们需要一种在阵亡将士纪念日周末、即将到来的夏季及以后安全旅行的方式。</blockquote></p><p>Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World&#39;s latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>它的业务继续发展。Camping World已连续五个季度实现两位数收入增长，其中最新报告中的收入增长了14%。对房车的持续兴趣（包括退休人员、富人和意识到混合工作场所的未来意味着能够在保住工作的同时环游全国的人们）以及新房、尤其是二手房价格的上涨车轮保持市场向前发展。利润率正在扩大，Camping World最近一个季度的净利润增长了22%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn&#39;t expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn&#39;t expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We&#39;re already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来看看好东西。详细说明Camping World的论点，您不会期望找到一只股票的售价仅为预期市盈率的六倍。你也不会想到一项投资最近将季度股息支付翻了一番，目前收益率为5%。我们已经开始了两位数的增长。如果Camping World能够继续以其弹性给市场带来惊喜，那么这是一只可以上涨五倍且定价仍然合理的股票。找到钥匙。拿出来试驾一下。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能上涨5倍</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Growth Stocks That Could 5x in 2022<blockquote>3只成长型股票在2022年可能上涨5倍</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 11:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If you&#39;re ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果您准备好在2022年观望，您不妨为自己配备一些在未来一年可以走得更远的股票。当你能碾压市场时，为什么要打败市场？</body></html></blockquote></p><p><b>Peloton Interactive</b>(NASDAQ:PTON),<b>Voyager Digital</b>(OTC:VYGV.F)and <b>Camping World Holdings</b>(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let&#39;s go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton互动</b>（纳斯达克：PTON），<b>航海家</b>（场外交易代码：VYGV.F）和<b>露营世界控股公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CWH）是我认为将在2022年击败市场的三只成长型股票。让我们回顾一下为什么我认为这些投资在未来一年有可能增长五倍。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b921271c793dcac0a4cef0e9c93f8376\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：PELOTON互动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>1. Peloton</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一排</b></blockquote></p><p>You don&#39;t need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday&#39;s close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要是数学专业的学生就能知道Peloton在2022年升值五倍需要什么。自11个月前达到峰值以来，该股截至周二收盘已下跌近80%。它所要做的就是打破历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market&#39;s doghouse. It&#39;s been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家失宠的公司来说，这是一项艰巨的任务，而这家高级家庭健身专家显然处于市场的狗窝中。对于Peloton来说，这是一系列不幸的事件。11个月前，就在应对流行病的疫苗上市时，该股达到顶峰。随着健身中心和动感单车精品店的重新开业，人们不再需要在真正的家庭代理上进行四位数的投资。</blockquote></p><p>Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the <i>Sex in the City</i> spin off <i>And Just Like That</i> killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.</p><p><blockquote>事情变得更糟了。在发生了几起涉及幼儿和宠物的悲惨事故后，它不得不召回其跑步机。近日首映的<i>欲望都市</i>分拆<i>就像那样</i>在Peloton锻炼后杀死了一个主角，即使Peloton确实通过快速扭转一个精彩的反广告从中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.</p><p><blockquote>从财务上来说，Peloton陷入了恐慌。在经历了几年三位数的营收增长后，该公司现已连续发布财务报告称，锻炼总次数和收入连续下降。指导也是有问题的，没有启发。该股本月继续遭到抛售，周二创下52周新低。投资者正在收获税收损失，而投资组合经理则在粉饰门面。</blockquote></p><p>But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>但是为什么没有人关注新冠肺炎病例的快速激增呢？随着第五次激增的加速，我们可能不会很快取消我们的互联健身Peloton订阅。</blockquote></p><p><b>2. Voyager Digital</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.航海家数码</b></blockquote></p><p>You won&#39;t find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren&#39;t typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money&#39;s adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.</p><p><blockquote>你不会发现太多上市公司的增长速度比Voyager Digital更快。该加密货币平台的有机收入在最近一个季度飙升了3,280%，此前在截至6月的2021财年增长了15,122%。这些不是错别字。上个月资金账户总数超过了100万，而且资金还在迅速增加。Voyager管理的总资产从6月底的26亿美元增长到9月底的43亿美元，到11月中旬接近70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Voyager isn&#39;t a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn&#39;t tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.</p><p><blockquote>航海家号本身并不是一个交易交易所。它通过十几家交易所和做市商外包客户订单。它不收取佣金，但如果其智能订单路由平台能够提供比报价更好的价格，Voyager确实会从中分一杯羹。最吸引人的是，它可以让加密货币交易者从闲置的代币和代币中赚取高达12%的年化利息。</blockquote></p><p>Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司拥有更大的客户基础，增长将不可避免地放缓，但分析师也认为该公司本财年将实现盈利。只要加密货币仍然受欢迎，并且Voyager不断达成明智的平台拓展交易，该股相对于目前25亿美元的市值还有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p><b>3. Camping World</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.露营世界</b></blockquote></p><p>You can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It&#39;s the top dog, and it&#39;s perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.</p><p><blockquote>您可以在同一勺中获得巨大的增长和丰厚的股息。Camping World经营着一家连锁超市，销售休闲车(RV)和相关必需品。它是领头羊，并且通过收购较小的区域参与者不断扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p>Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>业务在去年5月左右开始回升，因为人们意识到疫情将持续一段时间，他们需要一种在阵亡将士纪念日周末、即将到来的夏季及以后安全旅行的方式。</blockquote></p><p>Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World&#39;s latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>它的业务继续发展。Camping World已连续五个季度实现两位数收入增长，其中最新报告中的收入增长了14%。对房车的持续兴趣（包括退休人员、富人和意识到混合工作场所的未来意味着能够在保住工作的同时环游全国的人们）以及新房、尤其是二手房价格的上涨车轮保持市场向前发展。利润率正在扩大，Camping World最近一个季度的净利润增长了22%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn&#39;t expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn&#39;t expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We&#39;re already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来看看好东西。详细说明Camping World的论点，您不会期望找到一只股票的售价仅为预期市盈率的六倍。你也不会想到一项投资最近将季度股息支付翻了一番，目前收益率为5%。我们已经开始了两位数的增长。如果Camping World能够继续以其弹性给市场带来惊喜，那么这是一只可以上涨五倍且定价仍然合理的股票。找到钥匙。拿出来试驾一下。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/3-growth-stocks-that-could-5x-in-2022/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CWH":"露营世界","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","VYGVF":"Voyager Digital Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/3-growth-stocks-that-could-5x-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141552384","content_text":"If you're ready to swing for the fences in 2022, you may as well equip yourself with stocks that can go far in the year ahead. Why beat the market when you can crush the market?Peloton Interactive(NASDAQ:PTON),Voyager Digital(OTC:VYGV.F)and Camping World Holdings(NYSE:CWH)are three growth stocks that I feel will trounce the market in 2022. Let's go over why I think these investments have the potential for a fivefold increase in the year ahead.IMAGE SOURCE: PELOTON INTERACTIVE.1. PelotonYou don't need to be a math major to figure out what it would take for Peloton to appreciate fivefold in 2022. The stock has fallen nearly 80% through Tuesday's close since peaking 11 months ago. All it has to do is take out its old all-time high.It's a tall order for an out-of-favor company, and the premium home-fitness specialist is clearly in the market's doghouse. It's been a series of unfortunate events for Peloton. The stock peaked 11 months ago just as pandemic-tackling vaccines hit the market. With fitness centers and spinning-class boutiques reopening, there was less of a need to make a four-figure investment in a home-based proxy for the real thing.Things got worse. It had to recall its treadmill after a few tragic accidents involving young children and pets. Recently the premiere of the Sex in the City spin off And Just Like That killed off a main character after a Peloton workout, even if Peloton did recover from that by quickly turning around a brilliant counter ad.Financially speaking, Peloton is in a funk. It has now clocked in with consecutive financial reports of sequential declines in total workout sessions and revenue after a couple of years of triple-digit top-line growth. Guidance is also problematic and uninspiring. The stock continued to sell off this month, hitting a new 52-week low on Tuesday. Investors are tax-loss harvesting, and portfolio managers are window dressing.But why is no one paying attention to the rapid surge of COVID-19 cases? With a fifth surge picking up steam, we might not be canceling our connected-fitness Peloton subscriptions anytime soon.2. Voyager DigitalYou won't find too many publicly traded companies growing faster than Voyager Digital. The cryptocurrency platform saw its organic revenue soar 3,280% in its latest quarter, and that follows growth of 15,122% in its fiscal 2021 that ended in June. These aren't typos. It surpassed a million total funded accounts last month, and the money's adding up quickly. Voyager has seen its total assets under management grow from $2.6 billion at the end of June to $4.3 billion at the end of September to just shy of $7 billion by mid-November.Voyager isn't a trading exchange itself. It outsources customer orders through a dozen exchanges and market makers. It doesn't tack on a commission, but Voyager does get a piece of the action if its smart order-routing platform is able to deliver a better price than quoted. The star attraction is that it lets crypto traders earn as much as 12% in annualized interest on their idle tokens and coins.Growth will inevitably decelerate now that it has a much larger account base, but analysts also see it becoming profitable this fiscal year. As long as cryptocurrencies remain popular and Voyager keeps striking smart platform-widening deals, the stock has plenty of upside from its current $2.5 billion market cap.3. Camping WorldYou can get big growth and a juicy dividend in the same spoonful. Camping World operates a chain of superstores that sell recreational vehicles (RVs) and related essentials. It's the top dog, and it's perpetually widening its lead by buying smaller regional players.Business started to pick up around May of last year, as folks realized that the pandemic was going to be around for some time and that they needed a way to travel safely over Memorial Day weekend, the upcoming summer season, and beyond.Its business continues to roll. Camping World has rattled off five consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, including a 14% gain in its latest report. Sustainable interest in RVs (including from retirees, the affluent, and folks realizing that the future of hybrid workplaces means being able to travel across the country while keeping a job) and rising prices for new and -- in particular -- used homes on wheels keep the market driving forward. Margins are widening, and net income rose 22% in Camping World's latest quarter.Now we get to the good stuff. Spell out the thesis for Camping World and you wouldn't expect to find a stock selling for just six times forward earnings. You also wouldn't expect an investment that recently doubled its quarterly dividend payout, now yielding 5%. We're already lapping the start of the double-digit growth. If Camping World can keep surprising the market with its resiliency, this is a stock that can pop fivefold and still be reasonably priced. Find the keys. Take it out for a test drive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PTON":0.9,"CWH":0.9,"VYGVF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}