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Demonbuster

Demonbuster

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2021-12-19

Alibaba ftw!

2021-11-01

Lets win!

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-19

Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜

2021-09-03

Nice

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2021-07-31

Nice

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2021-07-27

Nice

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2021-07-25

Nice

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks

2021-07-25

Nice

GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over

2021-07-24

Nice

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2021-07-24

Nice

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2021-07-21

Nice

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2021-07-21

Nice

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2021-07-20

Nice!

@真是港股圈:顺丰同城和达达能否冲出美团的围城？

2021-07-18

//@Demonbuster: Nice

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2021-07-18

Nice

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2021-07-16

Nice!

Dividends are set to boom, and UBS is using AI to predict which stocks will raise payouts

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"htmlText":"Alibaba ftw!","listText":"Alibaba ftw!","text":"Alibaba ftw!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699450075","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849113138,"gmtCreate":1635734011172,"gmtModify":1635734019383,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lets win!","listText":"Lets win!","text":"Lets win!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849113138","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850257586,"gmtCreate":1634604479308,"gmtModify":1634604479430,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜","listText":"Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜","text":"Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850257586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815025635,"gmtCreate":1630631446627,"gmtModify":1632469344860,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815025635","repostId":"2164829818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806764683,"gmtCreate":1627694971142,"gmtModify":1633757075946,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806764683","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809656736,"gmtCreate":1627368184525,"gmtModify":1633765665775,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809656736","repostId":"1148687284","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177947280,"gmtCreate":1627178354740,"gmtModify":1633767459913,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177947280","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177945878,"gmtCreate":1627178255894,"gmtModify":1633767462093,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177945878","repostId":"1107345366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107345366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627176839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107345366?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107345366","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce pla","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>\n <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>\n <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>\n <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p>\n<p>While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p>\n<p>We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n</blockquote>\n<p>We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p>\n<p>In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p>\n<p>What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p>\n<p>GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p>\n<p>While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p>\n<p>Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n</blockquote>\n<p>However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p>\n<p>LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p>\n<p>Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p>\n<p>US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p>\n<p>Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p>\n<p>We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p>\n<p>Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p>\n<p>According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p>\n<p>Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p>\n<p>We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p>\n<p><b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p>\n<p>Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p>\n<p>According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p>We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p>While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p>\n<p><b>Looking Ahead</b></p>\n<p>Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p>\n<p>Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p>\n<p>Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p>\n<p>While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop: The Game Is Far From Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 09:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107345366","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.\nIn addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.\nWhile we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nThe speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.\nWhile we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.\nWe thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:\n\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n\nWe think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.\nIn this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.\nWhat Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?\nGME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"\nWhile the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.\nRyan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:\n\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n\nHowever, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”\nQuarterly revenues. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLTM revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.\nLTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.\nDebt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St\nLTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.\nTherefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:\n\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n\nThe Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020\nUS social network user growth, by platform 2020 & 2021. Source:eMarketer\nInvestors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.\nPopulation distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau\nWe believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.\nImportantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.\nAccording to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.\nAmong the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.\nTherefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.\nWe think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.\nAnalyzing the Reddit Opinion\nIndividual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick\nAccording to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.\nShare of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nAverage trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nWe could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.\nInstitutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick\nWhile 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.\nLooking Ahead\nOwnership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St\nInstitutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat\nMoving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.\nPercentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat\nImportantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.\nOther than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.\nWhile we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:\n\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n\nIn GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174887006,"gmtCreate":1627090873105,"gmtModify":1633768095689,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174887006","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174884222,"gmtCreate":1627090849466,"gmtModify":1633768096178,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174884222","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178592325,"gmtCreate":1626826457667,"gmtModify":1633770695365,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178592325","repostId":"2153924256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178592080,"gmtCreate":1626826443740,"gmtModify":1633770695609,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178592080","repostId":"2153924256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171682501,"gmtCreate":1626742169503,"gmtModify":1633771537270,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171682501","repostId":"171327675","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":171327675,"gmtCreate":1626692160000,"gmtModify":1744797689714,"author":{"id":"3465782205567474","authorId":"3465782205567474","name":"真是港股圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecdf784ac4b6eb627d1f2c8c45171e32","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465782205567474","authorIdStr":"3465782205567474"},"themes":[],"title":"顺丰同城和达达能否冲出美团的围城？","htmlText":"本文转载自公众号：爱思考的柚子； 作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人 近日顺丰同城提交在香港上市，终于同城快递的四家：美团外卖、饿了么、达达、顺丰同城都上市有了公开的财务数据。 同城快递指的是外卖+新零售+闪送这类同城内的快递服务，属于双寡头格局，其实没啥新鲜事情。但有意思的是两个挑战者，一个背靠京东和沃尔玛的达达，一个是百度外卖CTO加入顺丰搞的顺丰同城。两者是否能如同极兔在快递行业那样杀出重围呢？ 注：以上数据来自公开材料 更小的市场，更难的市场 同城快递四家合计单量2020年为168亿，即一天4612万单。只是全网快递单量833亿的1/5！而且龙头增速已经降到20%+，与快递类似。 如果全网快递是Hard模式，那同城快递则是Hell模式。按件量统计，两个市场的格局分别是： ● 同城快递-双寡头：6：4：0.5：0.5。美团、饿了么、达达和顺丰同城。 ●&nbsp;全网快递：多头竞争：2：1.7：1.5：1......。中通、韵达、圆通、申通、百世、顺丰、极兔。 Hell模式的同城快递，寡头的竞争优势更加明显。2020年，快递龙头中通的净利润为43亿，美团外卖的营业利润为28亿。两者利润差距为1倍，但市场规模差了5倍。老二的差距更明显，韵达利润为14亿，饿了么估计还在亏损。很明显美团外卖的竞争能力比中通强很多！ 从单价看老大的定价权更明显，美团外卖的单价达到6.53元，比饿了么贵了1.7元，36%！中通的价格比圆通韵达高1~2毛而已。 不同的突围思路 美团外卖和饿了么的收入增速基本都是20%+，而达达和顺丰的增速则高达85%和130%！是龙头的4~6倍！但两者的突围思路截然不同，导致所烧掉的资金体量也完全不同。 注：以上数据来自公开材料 ●&nbsp;顺丰同城：走高端外卖市场，单价与美团持平，要比达达高近22%，比饿了么高33%！这个幅度看着很眼熟，其实就是顺丰电商件和通达价格差","listText":"本文转载自公众号：爱思考的柚子； 作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人 近日顺丰同城提交在香港上市，终于同城快递的四家：美团外卖、饿了么、达达、顺丰同城都上市有了公开的财务数据。 同城快递指的是外卖+新零售+闪送这类同城内的快递服务，属于双寡头格局，其实没啥新鲜事情。但有意思的是两个挑战者，一个背靠京东和沃尔玛的达达，一个是百度外卖CTO加入顺丰搞的顺丰同城。两者是否能如同极兔在快递行业那样杀出重围呢？ 注：以上数据来自公开材料 更小的市场，更难的市场 同城快递四家合计单量2020年为168亿，即一天4612万单。只是全网快递单量833亿的1/5！而且龙头增速已经降到20%+，与快递类似。 如果全网快递是Hard模式，那同城快递则是Hell模式。按件量统计，两个市场的格局分别是： ● 同城快递-双寡头：6：4：0.5：0.5。美团、饿了么、达达和顺丰同城。 ●&nbsp;全网快递：多头竞争：2：1.7：1.5：1......。中通、韵达、圆通、申通、百世、顺丰、极兔。 Hell模式的同城快递，寡头的竞争优势更加明显。2020年，快递龙头中通的净利润为43亿，美团外卖的营业利润为28亿。两者利润差距为1倍，但市场规模差了5倍。老二的差距更明显，韵达利润为14亿，饿了么估计还在亏损。很明显美团外卖的竞争能力比中通强很多！ 从单价看老大的定价权更明显，美团外卖的单价达到6.53元，比饿了么贵了1.7元，36%！中通的价格比圆通韵达高1~2毛而已。 不同的突围思路 美团外卖和饿了么的收入增速基本都是20%+，而达达和顺丰的增速则高达85%和130%！是龙头的4~6倍！但两者的突围思路截然不同，导致所烧掉的资金体量也完全不同。 注：以上数据来自公开材料 ●&nbsp;顺丰同城：走高端外卖市场，单价与美团持平，要比达达高近22%，比饿了么高33%！这个幅度看着很眼熟，其实就是顺丰电商件和通达价格差","text":"本文转载自公众号：爱思考的柚子； 作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人 近日顺丰同城提交在香港上市，终于同城快递的四家：美团外卖、饿了么、达达、顺丰同城都上市有了公开的财务数据。 同城快递指的是外卖+新零售+闪送这类同城内的快递服务，属于双寡头格局，其实没啥新鲜事情。但有意思的是两个挑战者，一个背靠京东和沃尔玛的达达，一个是百度外卖CTO加入顺丰搞的顺丰同城。两者是否能如同极兔在快递行业那样杀出重围呢？ 注：以上数据来自公开材料 更小的市场，更难的市场 同城快递四家合计单量2020年为168亿，即一天4612万单。只是全网快递单量833亿的1/5！而且龙头增速已经降到20%+，与快递类似。 如果全网快递是Hard模式，那同城快递则是Hell模式。按件量统计，两个市场的格局分别是： ● 同城快递-双寡头：6：4：0.5：0.5。美团、饿了么、达达和顺丰同城。 ● 全网快递：多头竞争：2：1.7：1.5：1......。中通、韵达、圆通、申通、百世、顺丰、极兔。 Hell模式的同城快递，寡头的竞争优势更加明显。2020年，快递龙头中通的净利润为43亿，美团外卖的营业利润为28亿。两者利润差距为1倍，但市场规模差了5倍。老二的差距更明显，韵达利润为14亿，饿了么估计还在亏损。很明显美团外卖的竞争能力比中通强很多！ 从单价看老大的定价权更明显，美团外卖的单价达到6.53元，比饿了么贵了1.7元，36%！中通的价格比圆通韵达高1~2毛而已。 不同的突围思路 美团外卖和饿了么的收入增速基本都是20%+，而达达和顺丰的增速则高达85%和130%！是龙头的4~6倍！但两者的突围思路截然不同，导致所烧掉的资金体量也完全不同。 注：以上数据来自公开材料 ● 顺丰同城：走高端外卖市场，单价与美团持平，要比达达高近22%，比饿了么高33%！这个幅度看着很眼熟，其实就是顺丰电商件和通达价格差","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9a54a3bada6418bab3c2def2ceb961d","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bf687fcbfc0490f80d78b7874cbe3df","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb6fac2ed77546ab89b5da0f6eca8438","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171327675","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173922620,"gmtCreate":1626603943160,"gmtModify":1633925540668,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a 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08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dividends are set to boom, and UBS is using AI to predict which stocks will raise payouts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126470322","media":"cnbc","summary":"Stock dividends are set to make a grand comeback as companies get ready to return cash to shareholde","content":"<div>\n<p>Stock dividends are set to make a grand comeback as companies get ready to return cash to shareholders after shaking off the pandemic hit.\nFor investors wanting to capitalize on the new dividend cycle...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/dividends-are-set-to-boom-and-ubs-is-using-ai-to-predict-which-stocks-will-raise-payouts.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDividends are set to boom, and UBS is using AI to predict which stocks will raise payouts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 08:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/dividends-are-set-to-boom-and-ubs-is-using-ai-to-predict-which-stocks-will-raise-payouts.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock dividends are set to make a grand comeback as companies get ready to return cash to shareholders after shaking off the pandemic hit.\nFor investors wanting to capitalize on the new dividend cycle...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/dividends-are-set-to-boom-and-ubs-is-using-ai-to-predict-which-stocks-will-raise-payouts.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/dividends-are-set-to-boom-and-ubs-is-using-ai-to-predict-which-stocks-will-raise-payouts.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1126470322","content_text":"Stock dividends are set to make a grand comeback as companies get ready to return cash to shareholders after shaking off the pandemic hit.\nFor investors wanting to capitalize on the new dividend cycle, UBS used machine learning to identify a slew of companies poised to see the biggest increase in payouts in the next year.\nUBS predicted that S&P 500 dividends will grow by about 30%, or $150 billion in total, by the end of 2022, supported by a strong recovery in earnings. Payouts are already on the rise with U.S. domestic common stock dividends increasing $12.9 billion during the second quarter, compared to a $42.5 billion drop a year ago in the height of the Covid crisis, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.\nThe bank used various algorithms to test a number of potential explanatory variables and identified 17 key drivers of dividend trends. The models found that factors such as dividend yield, dividend growth, payout ratios and EPS revisions play a big role in companies’ ability to raise payouts. Through backtesting, UBS’ models have an accuracy of 75% for predicting upward revisions in dividend yields.\nHere’s the criteria for top potential dividend growers from UBS:\n\nStocks that rank in the top 25 stocks predicted to see strong dividend revisions\nA market cap greater than $7 billion\nBuy rated by UBS analysts\nStock with at least a 2% dividend yield.\n\nMorgan Stanleyis projected to have a 2.3% dividend yield in the next 12 months, according to UBS. The Wall Street powerhouse announced at the end of June thatit doubled its quarterly dividendto 70 cents a share starting in the third quarter, and it would buy up to $12 billion of its own stock through June 2022.\nIndustrial namesUnited Parcel ServiceandIllinois Tool Worksare also expected to see big growth in dividends.\nHP Inc.could raise its dividend to 2.8% in the next year, UBS said. The tech company reported strong results for its second quarter, beating the Street on its top and bottom lines. The stock is up 16% this year.\nEOG Resources,Extra Space StorageandEastman Chemical Companyare also on the list.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":815025635,"gmtCreate":1630631446627,"gmtModify":1632469344860,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815025635","repostId":"2164829818","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809656736,"gmtCreate":1627368184525,"gmtModify":1633765665775,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809656736","repostId":"1148687284","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174887006,"gmtCreate":1627090873105,"gmtModify":1633768095689,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174887006","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806764683,"gmtCreate":1627694971142,"gmtModify":1633757075946,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806764683","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178592325,"gmtCreate":1626826457667,"gmtModify":1633770695365,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178592325","repostId":"2153924256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174884222,"gmtCreate":1627090849466,"gmtModify":1633768096178,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174884222","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178592080,"gmtCreate":1626826443740,"gmtModify":1633770695609,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178592080","repostId":"2153924256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":699450075,"gmtCreate":1639880353191,"gmtModify":1639880353296,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba ftw!","listText":"Alibaba ftw!","text":"Alibaba ftw!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699450075","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177945878,"gmtCreate":1627178255894,"gmtModify":1633767462093,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177945878","repostId":"1107345366","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107345366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627176839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107345366?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107345366","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce pla","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li>\n <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li>\n <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li>\n <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.</p>\n<p>While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.</p>\n<p>We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n</blockquote>\n<p>We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.</p>\n<p>In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.</p>\n<p>What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?</p>\n<p>GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"</p>\n<p>While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.</p>\n<p>Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:</p>\n<blockquote>\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n</blockquote>\n<p>However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.</p>\n<p>LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</p>\n<p>While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.</p>\n<p>Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:</p>\n<blockquote>\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020</b></p>\n<p>US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer</p>\n<p>Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau</span></p>\n<p>We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.</p>\n<p>Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.</p>\n<p>According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.</p>\n<p>Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.</p>\n<p>Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.</p>\n<p>We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.</p>\n<p><b>Analyzing the Reddit Opinion</b></p>\n<p>Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick</p>\n<p>According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p>We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick</span></p>\n<p>While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.</p>\n<p><b>Looking Ahead</b></p>\n<p>Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat</span></p>\n<p>Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat</span></p>\n<p>Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.</p>\n<p>Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.</p>\n<p><b>Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.</p>\n<p>While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop: The Game Is Far From Over\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 09:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107345366","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.\nIn addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.\nWhile we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nThe speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.\nWhile we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.\nWe thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:\n\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n\nWe think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.\nIn this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.\nWhat Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?\nGME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"\nWhile the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.\nRyan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:\n\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n\nHowever, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”\nQuarterly revenues. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLTM revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.\nLTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.\nDebt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St\nLTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.\nTherefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:\n\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n\nThe Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020\nUS social network user growth, by platform 2020 & 2021. Source:eMarketer\nInvestors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.\nPopulation distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau\nWe believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.\nImportantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.\nAccording to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.\nAmong the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.\nTherefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.\nWe think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.\nAnalyzing the Reddit Opinion\nIndividual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick\nAccording to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.\nShare of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nAverage trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nWe could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.\nInstitutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick\nWhile 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.\nLooking Ahead\nOwnership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St\nInstitutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat\nMoving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.\nPercentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat\nImportantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.\nOther than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.\nWhile we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:\n\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n\nIn GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173922166,"gmtCreate":1626603907955,"gmtModify":1633925540908,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173922166","repostId":"2152368129","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177947280,"gmtCreate":1627178354740,"gmtModify":1633767459913,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177947280","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170014667,"gmtCreate":1626395448359,"gmtModify":1633927194934,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170014667","repostId":"1126470322","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126470322","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626394714,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126470322?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dividends are set to boom, and UBS is using AI to predict which stocks will raise payouts","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126470322","media":"cnbc","summary":"Stock dividends are set to make a grand comeback as companies get ready to return cash to shareholde","content":"<div>\n<p>Stock dividends are set to make a grand comeback as companies get ready to return cash to shareholders after shaking off the pandemic hit.\nFor investors wanting to capitalize on the new dividend cycle...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/dividends-are-set-to-boom-and-ubs-is-using-ai-to-predict-which-stocks-will-raise-payouts.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dividends are set to boom, and UBS is using AI to predict which stocks will raise payouts</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDividends are set to boom, and UBS is using AI to predict which stocks will raise payouts\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 08:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/dividends-are-set-to-boom-and-ubs-is-using-ai-to-predict-which-stocks-will-raise-payouts.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock dividends are set to make a grand comeback as companies get ready to return cash to shareholders after shaking off the pandemic hit.\nFor investors wanting to capitalize on the new dividend cycle...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/dividends-are-set-to-boom-and-ubs-is-using-ai-to-predict-which-stocks-will-raise-payouts.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/dividends-are-set-to-boom-and-ubs-is-using-ai-to-predict-which-stocks-will-raise-payouts.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1126470322","content_text":"Stock dividends are set to make a grand comeback as companies get ready to return cash to shareholders after shaking off the pandemic hit.\nFor investors wanting to capitalize on the new dividend cycle, UBS used machine learning to identify a slew of companies poised to see the biggest increase in payouts in the next year.\nUBS predicted that S&P 500 dividends will grow by about 30%, or $150 billion in total, by the end of 2022, supported by a strong recovery in earnings. Payouts are already on the rise with U.S. domestic common stock dividends increasing $12.9 billion during the second quarter, compared to a $42.5 billion drop a year ago in the height of the Covid crisis, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.\nThe bank used various algorithms to test a number of potential explanatory variables and identified 17 key drivers of dividend trends. The models found that factors such as dividend yield, dividend growth, payout ratios and EPS revisions play a big role in companies’ ability to raise payouts. Through backtesting, UBS’ models have an accuracy of 75% for predicting upward revisions in dividend yields.\nHere’s the criteria for top potential dividend growers from UBS:\n\nStocks that rank in the top 25 stocks predicted to see strong dividend revisions\nA market cap greater than $7 billion\nBuy rated by UBS analysts\nStock with at least a 2% dividend yield.\n\nMorgan Stanleyis projected to have a 2.3% dividend yield in the next 12 months, according to UBS. The Wall Street powerhouse announced at the end of June thatit doubled its quarterly dividendto 70 cents a share starting in the third quarter, and it would buy up to $12 billion of its own stock through June 2022.\nIndustrial namesUnited Parcel ServiceandIllinois Tool Worksare also expected to see big growth in dividends.\nHP Inc.could raise its dividend to 2.8% in the next year, UBS said. The tech company reported strong results for its second quarter, beating the Street on its top and bottom lines. The stock is up 16% this year.\nEOG Resources,Extra Space StorageandEastman Chemical Companyare also on the list.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":849113138,"gmtCreate":1635734011172,"gmtModify":1635734019383,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lets win!","listText":"Lets win!","text":"Lets win!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849113138","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850257586,"gmtCreate":1634604479308,"gmtModify":1634604479430,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜","listText":"Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜","text":"Alibaba to the moon 🌜🌜🌜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850257586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":173922620,"gmtCreate":1626603943160,"gmtModify":1633925540668,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569724741273382\">@Demonbuster</a>: Nice","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569724741273382\">@Demonbuster</a>: Nice","text":"//@Demonbuster: Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173922620","repostId":"2152368129","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171682501,"gmtCreate":1626742169503,"gmtModify":1633771537270,"author":{"id":"3569724741273382","authorId":"3569724741273382","name":"Demonbuster","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d51ae3a189e0cda04c3b1e795b39f6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569724741273382","authorIdStr":"3569724741273382"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!","listText":"Nice!","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171682501","repostId":"171327675","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":171327675,"gmtCreate":1626692160000,"gmtModify":1744797689714,"author":{"id":"3465782205567474","authorId":"3465782205567474","name":"真是港股圈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecdf784ac4b6eb627d1f2c8c45171e32","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3465782205567474","authorIdStr":"3465782205567474"},"themes":[],"title":"顺丰同城和达达能否冲出美团的围城？","htmlText":"本文转载自公众号：爱思考的柚子； 作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人 近日顺丰同城提交在香港上市，终于同城快递的四家：美团外卖、饿了么、达达、顺丰同城都上市有了公开的财务数据。 同城快递指的是外卖+新零售+闪送这类同城内的快递服务，属于双寡头格局，其实没啥新鲜事情。但有意思的是两个挑战者，一个背靠京东和沃尔玛的达达，一个是百度外卖CTO加入顺丰搞的顺丰同城。两者是否能如同极兔在快递行业那样杀出重围呢？ 注：以上数据来自公开材料 更小的市场，更难的市场 同城快递四家合计单量2020年为168亿，即一天4612万单。只是全网快递单量833亿的1/5！而且龙头增速已经降到20%+，与快递类似。 如果全网快递是Hard模式，那同城快递则是Hell模式。按件量统计，两个市场的格局分别是： ● 同城快递-双寡头：6：4：0.5：0.5。美团、饿了么、达达和顺丰同城。 ●&nbsp;全网快递：多头竞争：2：1.7：1.5：1......。中通、韵达、圆通、申通、百世、顺丰、极兔。 Hell模式的同城快递，寡头的竞争优势更加明显。2020年，快递龙头中通的净利润为43亿，美团外卖的营业利润为28亿。两者利润差距为1倍，但市场规模差了5倍。老二的差距更明显，韵达利润为14亿，饿了么估计还在亏损。很明显美团外卖的竞争能力比中通强很多！ 从单价看老大的定价权更明显，美团外卖的单价达到6.53元，比饿了么贵了1.7元，36%！中通的价格比圆通韵达高1~2毛而已。 不同的突围思路 美团外卖和饿了么的收入增速基本都是20%+，而达达和顺丰的增速则高达85%和130%！是龙头的4~6倍！但两者的突围思路截然不同，导致所烧掉的资金体量也完全不同。 注：以上数据来自公开材料 ●&nbsp;顺丰同城：走高端外卖市场，单价与美团持平，要比达达高近22%，比饿了么高33%！这个幅度看着很眼熟，其实就是顺丰电商件和通达价格差","listText":"本文转载自公众号：爱思考的柚子； 作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人 近日顺丰同城提交在香港上市，终于同城快递的四家：美团外卖、饿了么、达达、顺丰同城都上市有了公开的财务数据。 同城快递指的是外卖+新零售+闪送这类同城内的快递服务，属于双寡头格局，其实没啥新鲜事情。但有意思的是两个挑战者，一个背靠京东和沃尔玛的达达，一个是百度外卖CTO加入顺丰搞的顺丰同城。两者是否能如同极兔在快递行业那样杀出重围呢？ 注：以上数据来自公开材料 更小的市场，更难的市场 同城快递四家合计单量2020年为168亿，即一天4612万单。只是全网快递单量833亿的1/5！而且龙头增速已经降到20%+，与快递类似。 如果全网快递是Hard模式，那同城快递则是Hell模式。按件量统计，两个市场的格局分别是： ● 同城快递-双寡头：6：4：0.5：0.5。美团、饿了么、达达和顺丰同城。 ●&nbsp;全网快递：多头竞争：2：1.7：1.5：1......。中通、韵达、圆通、申通、百世、顺丰、极兔。 Hell模式的同城快递，寡头的竞争优势更加明显。2020年，快递龙头中通的净利润为43亿，美团外卖的营业利润为28亿。两者利润差距为1倍，但市场规模差了5倍。老二的差距更明显，韵达利润为14亿，饿了么估计还在亏损。很明显美团外卖的竞争能力比中通强很多！ 从单价看老大的定价权更明显，美团外卖的单价达到6.53元，比饿了么贵了1.7元，36%！中通的价格比圆通韵达高1~2毛而已。 不同的突围思路 美团外卖和饿了么的收入增速基本都是20%+，而达达和顺丰的增速则高达85%和130%！是龙头的4~6倍！但两者的突围思路截然不同，导致所烧掉的资金体量也完全不同。 注：以上数据来自公开材料 ●&nbsp;顺丰同城：走高端外卖市场，单价与美团持平，要比达达高近22%，比饿了么高33%！这个幅度看着很眼熟，其实就是顺丰电商件和通达价格差","text":"本文转载自公众号：爱思考的柚子； 作者：彭程柚子投资合伙人 近日顺丰同城提交在香港上市，终于同城快递的四家：美团外卖、饿了么、达达、顺丰同城都上市有了公开的财务数据。 同城快递指的是外卖+新零售+闪送这类同城内的快递服务，属于双寡头格局，其实没啥新鲜事情。但有意思的是两个挑战者，一个背靠京东和沃尔玛的达达，一个是百度外卖CTO加入顺丰搞的顺丰同城。两者是否能如同极兔在快递行业那样杀出重围呢？ 注：以上数据来自公开材料 更小的市场，更难的市场 同城快递四家合计单量2020年为168亿，即一天4612万单。只是全网快递单量833亿的1/5！而且龙头增速已经降到20%+，与快递类似。 如果全网快递是Hard模式，那同城快递则是Hell模式。按件量统计，两个市场的格局分别是： ● 同城快递-双寡头：6：4：0.5：0.5。美团、饿了么、达达和顺丰同城。 ● 全网快递：多头竞争：2：1.7：1.5：1......。中通、韵达、圆通、申通、百世、顺丰、极兔。 Hell模式的同城快递，寡头的竞争优势更加明显。2020年，快递龙头中通的净利润为43亿，美团外卖的营业利润为28亿。两者利润差距为1倍，但市场规模差了5倍。老二的差距更明显，韵达利润为14亿，饿了么估计还在亏损。很明显美团外卖的竞争能力比中通强很多！ 从单价看老大的定价权更明显，美团外卖的单价达到6.53元，比饿了么贵了1.7元，36%！中通的价格比圆通韵达高1~2毛而已。 不同的突围思路 美团外卖和饿了么的收入增速基本都是20%+，而达达和顺丰的增速则高达85%和130%！是龙头的4~6倍！但两者的突围思路截然不同，导致所烧掉的资金体量也完全不同。 注：以上数据来自公开材料 ● 顺丰同城：走高端外卖市场，单价与美团持平，要比达达高近22%，比饿了么高33%！这个幅度看着很眼熟，其实就是顺丰电商件和通达价格差","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9a54a3bada6418bab3c2def2ceb961d","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bf687fcbfc0490f80d78b7874cbe3df","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb6fac2ed77546ab89b5da0f6eca8438","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171327675","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}