ZDAN的个人主页 - 老虎社区

ZDAN

ZDAN

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IP属地：北京

57关注

25粉丝

1主题

0勋章

04-17

$拼多多(PDD)$ 亚马逊31倍多pe，大约是pdd的四倍🙂

04-10

$拼多多(PDD)$ 回港股💪

01-04

I opened $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ ,🙊

2024-12-20

他是在做预期管理，不能让美元贬值太快🤐

抱歉，原内容已删除

2024-11-29

$拼多多(PDD)$ 终有回到200的一天🙊

2024-11-28

$理想汽车(LI)$ 港股真是一点定价权也没有😂

2024-11-21

$拼多多(PDD)$

2024-10-31

销售额低于预期，说明屯了更多的btc？！

Riot Platforms Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.54) Misses $(0.15) Estimate, Sales $84.786M Miss $95.352M Estimate

2024-06-20

$理想汽车(LI)$ 再跌一跌，账上现金都比市值高了😂

2024-03-06

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ 💪

2024-03-05

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ 🚀

2024-03-02

$拼多多(PDD)$ 短、中、长期目标价位： 151、181、221🚀

2021-10-25

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$Mara这是要奔100去了么🤨

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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回港股💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/422605178098192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388643275563216,"gmtCreate":1735924097182,"gmtModify":1735924695639,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570064109965591","authorIdStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I opened <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$&nbsp;</a> ,🙊","listText":"I opened <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$&nbsp;</a> ,🙊","text":"I opened $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ ,🙊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388643275563216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383647546904984,"gmtCreate":1734705228735,"gmtModify":1734705230661,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570064109965591","authorIdStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"他是在做预期管理，不能让美元贬值太快🤐","listText":"他是在做预期管理，不能让美元贬值太快🤐","text":"他是在做预期管理，不能让美元贬值太快🤐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383647546904984","repostId":"2492451700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376215723848072,"gmtCreate":1732891722187,"gmtModify":1732891723702,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570064109965591","authorIdStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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终有回到200的一天🙊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376215723848072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4194598474734732","authorId":"4194598474734732","name":"河南第二股神","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4194598474734732","authorIdStr":"4194598474734732"},"content":"大量商家都从拼多多退店，没退的关闭推广，没关闭推广的不再报活动提高单价，而且，因为他开了仅退款的先河，国内骂声一片。拼多多直接竞争对手是抖音直播间带货，而不是淘宝。抖音不垮，多多无光。","text":"大量商家都从拼多多退店，没退的关闭推广，没关闭推广的不再报活动提高单价，而且，因为他开了仅退款的先河，国内骂声一片。拼多多直接竞争对手是抖音直播间带货，而不是淘宝。抖音不垮，多多无光。","html":"大量商家都从拼多多退店，没退的关闭推广，没关闭推广的不再报活动提高单价，而且，因为他开了仅退款的先河，国内骂声一片。拼多多直接竞争对手是抖音直播间带货，而不是淘宝。抖音不垮，多多无光。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375674586169776,"gmtCreate":1732759108877,"gmtModify":1732759110409,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570064109965591","authorIdStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$&nbsp;</a> 港股真是一点定价权也没有😂","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$&nbsp;</a> 港股真是一点定价权也没有😂","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$ 港股真是一点定价权也没有😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375674586169776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373375363318232,"gmtCreate":1732197412470,"gmtModify":1732197416673,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570064109965591","authorIdStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefe6431c62363bbd22c5d01451e1b0b","width":"800","height":"599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373375363318232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365908201259024,"gmtCreate":1730333584868,"gmtModify":1730333587417,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570064109965591","authorIdStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"销售额低于预期，说明屯了更多的btc？！","listText":"销售额低于预期，说明屯了更多的btc？！","text":"销售额低于预期，说明屯了更多的btc？！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365908201259024","repostId":"2479763880","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2479763880","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1730320475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2479763880?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-31 04:34","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Riot Platforms Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.54) Misses $(0.15) Estimate, Sales $84.786M Miss $95.352M Estimate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2479763880","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) reported quarterly losses of $(0.54) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.15) by 260 percent. This is a 22.73 percent decrease over losses of $(0.44) per share from","content":"<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Platforms</a> (NASDAQ:RIOT) reported quarterly losses of $(0.54) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.15) by 260 percent. This is a 22.73 percent decrease over losses of $(0.44) per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $84.786 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $95.352 million by 11.08 percent.  This is a 63.39 percent increase over sales of $51.891 million the same period last year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Riot Platforms Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.54) Misses $(0.15) Estimate, Sales $84.786M Miss $95.352M Estimate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRiot Platforms Q3 2024 GAAP EPS $(0.54) Misses $(0.15) Estimate, Sales $84.786M Miss $95.352M Estimate\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-31 04:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Platforms</a> (NASDAQ:RIOT) reported quarterly losses of $(0.54) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.15) by 260 percent. This is a 22.73 percent decrease over losses of $(0.44) per share from the same period last year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $84.786 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $95.352 million by 11.08 percent.  This is a 63.39 percent increase over sales of $51.891 million the same period last year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIOT":"Riot Platforms"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41637388/riot-platforms-q3-2024-gaap-eps-0-54-misses-0-15-estimate-sales-84-786m-miss-95-352m-estimate","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2479763880","content_text":"Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) reported quarterly losses of $(0.54) per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.15) by 260 percent. 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回港股💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/422605178098192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388643275563216,"gmtCreate":1735924097182,"gmtModify":1735924695639,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570064109965591","idStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I opened <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$&nbsp;</a> ,🙊","listText":"I opened <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$&nbsp;</a> ,🙊","text":"I opened $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ ,🙊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388643275563216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373375363318232,"gmtCreate":1732197412470,"gmtModify":1732197416673,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570064109965591","idStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefe6431c62363bbd22c5d01451e1b0b","width":"800","height":"599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373375363318232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":281089968308448,"gmtCreate":1709656142028,"gmtModify":1709656143454,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570064109965591","idStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> 💪","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> 💪","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ 💪","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/273aa1553b349ce7cbad04b2ea116627","width":"634","height":"477"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281089968308448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383647546904984,"gmtCreate":1734705228735,"gmtModify":1734705230661,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570064109965591","idStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"他是在做预期管理，不能让美元贬值太快🤐","listText":"他是在做预期管理，不能让美元贬值太快🤐","text":"他是在做预期管理，不能让美元贬值太快🤐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383647546904984","repostId":"2492451700","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2492451700","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1734669046,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2492451700?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-20 12:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔犯了一个大错：美国劳动力市场已经内爆，经济衰退迫在眉睫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492451700","media":"金十数据","summary":"从狂暴的鸽派变成好战的鹰派，美联储是否又做出了一个灾难性的政策决定？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>金融博客零对冲撰文称，美联储本周可笑地转向鹰派，这家高度政治化的央行在大幅降息50个基点以“抵御经济衰退”之后不到三个月就决定诡异地转向鹰派。渣打银行外汇策略师史蒂夫-英格兰德（Steve Englander）说：“真正的问题是，如果你要如此鹰派，为什么还要降息呢？”</p>\n<p>的确如此，但更好的问题是，美联储在短短三个月内为什么发生了如此巨大的变化，<strong>从狂暴的鸽派变成了好战的鹰派</strong>（我们知道特朗普赢得了大选）。</p>\n<p>然而，还有最好的问题是：<strong>美联储是否又做出了一个灾难性的政策决定，并再次错误地选择了“转鹰”？</strong></p>\n<p>零对冲称，事实证明，答案是肯定的，“这并不是因为腐败和共谋的拜登政府提供了任何不可靠的统计数据，我们现在知道每一个递增的数据都是一个骗人的谎言（我们不仅正确预测了接近创纪录的81.8万个就业岗位的下调，而且最近我们还解释了“拜登谎话连篇：费城联储发现第二季度‘创造’ 的所有就业岗位都是假的”），而是因为<strong>客观的第三方劳动力市场跟踪机构证实劳动力市场刚刚发生了内爆</strong>。”</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>经济学家阿贝卡西斯（Manuel Abecasis）在最近的一份报告中写道，失业工人的求职率——即在一个月内失业的工人在随后一个月内找到工作的比例，自9月份以来下降了7%，降至21%，这是<strong>有史以来最大的两个月降幅</strong>（唯一的例外是2020年的经济崩溃，当时整个世界都停摆了），也是自2014年以来的最低比例！</p>\n<p>高盛的经济学家团队指出，他们一直强调求职率“在解释失业率周期性波动，尤其是在经济衰退开始时”的重要性。他们补充说，“从表面数字来看，<strong>求职率的急剧下降可能会让人担心失业率即将出现更明显的上升</strong>。”</p>\n<p>为了解释这一衰退信号，直到最近还对前景极为乐观的高盛发现了三个导致求职率下降的因素：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>首先，外国出生工人的求职率大幅下降，在过去几个月中下降了约10%，占求职率总体降幅的约2%。也就是说，没有更多的非法移民涌入劳动力市场了。高盛认为，即将上任的特朗普政府对移民政策的不确定性增加，可能使雇主更不愿意雇用这些工人。</p>\n<p>其次，贸易和运输工人的求职率下降了约10%，也占了总求职率降幅的2%。这一下降部分反映了11月份感恩节假期晚于往常的季节性扭曲，导致就业报告中的就业岗位减少了2.8万个。</p>\n<p>第三，11月份退休的65岁及以上失业工人人数增加，导致这一年龄组的求职率出现不成比例的大幅下降，比9月份的水平下降了约15%，比2019年的平均水平低13%。这占了总求职率降幅的另外1%。65岁及以上求职者人数的减少，使得11月份待聘的潜在雇员人数减少。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>重要的是，高盛自己的研究发现，从失业到脱离劳动力市场的流动在过去并没有推动失业率的周期性变动。</p>\n<p>虽然这三个因素可以解释自9月份以来求职率下降的5%左右，但实际情况是，如果结合费城联储的最新数据（该数据显示第二季度创造的就业岗位为负值），就会导致之前报告的1.1%的就业增幅被大幅下调。这意味着第二季度将有超过<strong>40万</strong>个工作岗位被修正为负数。</p>\n<p>高盛不得不承认，过去一年求职率的持续下降与劳动力市场在2024年大幅松动且“尚未稳定”的情况相一致，而且还要补充一点，即<strong>劳动力市场衰退的信号如果不是已经到来，也是迫在眉睫。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔犯了一个大错：美国劳动力市场已经内爆，经济衰退迫在眉睫</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔犯了一个大错：美国劳动力市场已经内爆，经济衰退迫在眉睫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-20 12:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=156633&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>金融博客零对冲撰文称，美联储本周可笑地转向鹰派，这家高度政治化的央行在大幅降息50个基点以“抵御经济衰退”之后不到三个月就决定诡异地转向鹰派。渣打银行外汇策略师史蒂夫-英格兰德（Steve Englander）说：“真正的问题是，如果你要如此鹰派，为什么还要降息呢？”\n的确如此，但更好的问题是，美联储在短短三个月内为什么发生了如此巨大的变化，从狂暴的鸽派变成了好战的鹰派（我们知道特朗普赢得了大选）...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=156633&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a2e8503f929529c2008c769b7995cc7","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=156633&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2492451700","content_text":"金融博客零对冲撰文称，美联储本周可笑地转向鹰派，这家高度政治化的央行在大幅降息50个基点以“抵御经济衰退”之后不到三个月就决定诡异地转向鹰派。渣打银行外汇策略师史蒂夫-英格兰德（Steve Englander）说：“真正的问题是，如果你要如此鹰派，为什么还要降息呢？”\n的确如此，但更好的问题是，美联储在短短三个月内为什么发生了如此巨大的变化，从狂暴的鸽派变成了好战的鹰派（我们知道特朗普赢得了大选）。\n然而，还有最好的问题是：美联储是否又做出了一个灾难性的政策决定，并再次错误地选择了“转鹰”？\n零对冲称，事实证明，答案是肯定的，“这并不是因为腐败和共谋的拜登政府提供了任何不可靠的统计数据，我们现在知道每一个递增的数据都是一个骗人的谎言（我们不仅正确预测了接近创纪录的81.8万个就业岗位的下调，而且最近我们还解释了“拜登谎话连篇：费城联储发现第二季度‘创造’ 的所有就业岗位都是假的”），而是因为客观的第三方劳动力市场跟踪机构证实劳动力市场刚刚发生了内爆。”\n高盛经济学家阿贝卡西斯（Manuel Abecasis）在最近的一份报告中写道，失业工人的求职率——即在一个月内失业的工人在随后一个月内找到工作的比例，自9月份以来下降了7%，降至21%，这是有史以来最大的两个月降幅（唯一的例外是2020年的经济崩溃，当时整个世界都停摆了），也是自2014年以来的最低比例！\n高盛的经济学家团队指出，他们一直强调求职率“在解释失业率周期性波动，尤其是在经济衰退开始时”的重要性。他们补充说，“从表面数字来看，求职率的急剧下降可能会让人担心失业率即将出现更明显的上升。”\n为了解释这一衰退信号，直到最近还对前景极为乐观的高盛发现了三个导致求职率下降的因素：\n\n首先，外国出生工人的求职率大幅下降，在过去几个月中下降了约10%，占求职率总体降幅的约2%。也就是说，没有更多的非法移民涌入劳动力市场了。高盛认为，即将上任的特朗普政府对移民政策的不确定性增加，可能使雇主更不愿意雇用这些工人。\n其次，贸易和运输工人的求职率下降了约10%，也占了总求职率降幅的2%。这一下降部分反映了11月份感恩节假期晚于往常的季节性扭曲，导致就业报告中的就业岗位减少了2.8万个。\n第三，11月份退休的65岁及以上失业工人人数增加，导致这一年龄组的求职率出现不成比例的大幅下降，比9月份的水平下降了约15%，比2019年的平均水平低13%。这占了总求职率降幅的另外1%。65岁及以上求职者人数的减少，使得11月份待聘的潜在雇员人数减少。\n\n重要的是，高盛自己的研究发现，从失业到脱离劳动力市场的流动在过去并没有推动失业率的周期性变动。\n虽然这三个因素可以解释自9月份以来求职率下降的5%左右，但实际情况是，如果结合费城联储的最新数据（该数据显示第二季度创造的就业岗位为负值），就会导致之前报告的1.1%的就业增幅被大幅下调。这意味着第二季度将有超过40万个工作岗位被修正为负数。\n高盛不得不承认，过去一年求职率的持续下降与劳动力市场在2024年大幅松动且“尚未稳定”的情况相一致，而且还要补充一点，即劳动力市场衰退的信号如果不是已经到来，也是迫在眉睫。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365908201259024,"gmtCreate":1730333584868,"gmtModify":1730333587417,"author":{"id":"3570064109965591","authorId":"3570064109965591","name":"ZDAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c355a2d8f20ee93a8d50100f591f4cd4","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570064109965591","idStr":"3570064109965591"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"销售额低于预期，说明屯了更多的btc？！","listText":"销售额低于预期，说明屯了更多的btc？！","text":"销售额低于预期，说明屯了更多的btc？！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365908201259024","repostId":"2479763880","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}