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2021-10-28

wow!!!

We may need to start thinking about Tesla at $3 trillion

2021-10-25

To the moon

Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection

2021-10-19

Like

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2021-10-15

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Is SoFi Stock Worth Buying Or Is It A Sell? It Depends On Revenue Growth And Profitability

2021-06-16

Wow

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2021-06-16

Like my comment please

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets

2021-06-08

Wow

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2021-04-29

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NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For

2021-04-28

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2021-04-21

Yes

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2021-04-20

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2021-04-20

Like and share

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2021-04-15

Like this pls

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2021-04-12

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2021-04-02

like & comment

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2021-03-30

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2021-03-27

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Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading

2021-03-25

Ok

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2021-03-25

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2021-03-23

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All three major U.S. stock indexes turned green from red.

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,"listText":"wow!!!","text":"wow!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854337088","repostId":"2178252242","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2178252242","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635414077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2178252242?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-28 17:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"We may need to start thinking about Tesla at $3 trillion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2178252242","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"With short-sellers cowed, Tesla $3T could be closer than we think\nRemember that time Elon Musk brief","content":"<p>With short-sellers cowed, Tesla $3T could be closer than we think</p>\n<p>Remember that time Elon Musk briefly flirted with the idea of taking Tesla (TSLA) private, partly financed with money from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth war chest, and promptly landed in hot water with regulators?</p>\n<p>Now that the carmaker has definitely joined the $1 trillion market capitalization club — only the fifth company to do so — the $420, “funding secured” episode may seem like ancient history (it was 2018, for those keeping track at home).</p>\n<p>But it’s worth the stroll down memory lane now that Tesla is firing on all cylinders, striking huge deals and cowing the short-sellers into submission (Speaking of, what are Jim Chanos and David Einhorn doing with themselves these days?)</p>\n<p>With all the momentum behind it, could Tesla grow even bigger, to say, $3 trillion?</p>\n<p>In a recent Substack post, economics commentator James Pethokoukis mused about the idea of Tesla becoming the first company to outflank tech giants. Pethokoukis wrote:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Everyone knows America doesn’t make anything anymore. But, you know, Tesla does. And what it makes investors apparently think is pretty valuable, both now and in the future. Indeed, they think the potential of what Tesla makes is so valuable that no company has itself become so valuable despite selling so little\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n It makes sense that the Information Technology Revolution would make lots of fortunes through the manipulation of bits. But maybe now we are shifting back to wealth creations via the manipulation of atoms — enabled, of course, by IT advances, including forms of AI — rather than our attention spans via social media. Tesla is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> example, and more might be on the way. For example: Moderna is a $140 billion company thanks to its success developing mRNA vaccines to counter the coronavirus. One wonders about the economic potential of new genetic editing techniques…\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Biology, energy, space. The U.S. economy is about a lot more than tech firms serving us ads while we search online or while we bicker on social media platforms. Will it all add up to the start of a New Roaring Twenties or Roaring Twenty-First Century?\n</blockquote>\n<p>Tesla $3T might be a reach, even with all the company has going for it. But the question is pertinent given that the electric vehicle (EV) space as a whole is white hot, and competitors are lining up to snatch Tesla's crown. On Wednesday, General Motors (GM) chief Mary Barra came in from the top rope with a bold prediction made to CNBC, saying the auto giant could \"absolutely\" top Tesla's EV sales within the next four years.</p>\n<p>Whether or not GM is making empty boasts, Tesla’s bull case is growing more aggressive by the day. CFO Zachary Kirkhorn noted that in Q3, the company’s once-struggling deliveries were 20% higher quarter-over-quarter, and 70% higher than the comparable year-ago.</p>\n<p>That makes analysts like those at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> more than eager to hike their price targets, and see a clear path to fresh record highs on the stock. The bank raised its target to $1,200 earlier this week, even as potential troubles loom from supply chain and geopolitics.</p>\n<p>Still, Morgan Stanley made a clear case for why Tesla’s more likely to see upside than down. “The Tesla you see today is the product of pre-COVID, sub $100 billion Tesla,” analysts wrote.</p>\n<p>“The Tesla you’ll likely see over the next 12 to 18 months would demonstrate the capabilities of the Trillion dollar Tesla: emphasizing step-changes in manufacturing, cost reduction... expansion in capacity, model lineup and services offerings,” the bank said, adding that the company “has been the world’s most valuable carmaker for some time.”</p>\n<p>And given a favorable environment for climate-friendly technology, there’s “a broad opportunity set for investors in green tech, both from existing and emerging technologies,” Morgan Stanley said.</p>\n<p>$3 trillion, here we come? Never say never.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>We may need to start thinking about Tesla at $3 trillion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWe may need to start thinking about Tesla at $3 trillion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-28 17:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-may-need-to-start-thinking-about-tesla-at-3-trillion-morning-brief-091138404.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With short-sellers cowed, Tesla $3T could be closer than we think\nRemember that time Elon Musk briefly flirted with the idea of taking Tesla (TSLA) private, partly financed with money from Saudi ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-may-need-to-start-thinking-about-tesla-at-3-trillion-morning-brief-091138404.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-may-need-to-start-thinking-about-tesla-at-3-trillion-morning-brief-091138404.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2178252242","content_text":"With short-sellers cowed, Tesla $3T could be closer than we think\nRemember that time Elon Musk briefly flirted with the idea of taking Tesla (TSLA) private, partly financed with money from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth war chest, and promptly landed in hot water with regulators?\nNow that the carmaker has definitely joined the $1 trillion market capitalization club — only the fifth company to do so — the $420, “funding secured” episode may seem like ancient history (it was 2018, for those keeping track at home).\nBut it’s worth the stroll down memory lane now that Tesla is firing on all cylinders, striking huge deals and cowing the short-sellers into submission (Speaking of, what are Jim Chanos and David Einhorn doing with themselves these days?)\nWith all the momentum behind it, could Tesla grow even bigger, to say, $3 trillion?\nIn a recent Substack post, economics commentator James Pethokoukis mused about the idea of Tesla becoming the first company to outflank tech giants. Pethokoukis wrote:\n\n Everyone knows America doesn’t make anything anymore. But, you know, Tesla does. And what it makes investors apparently think is pretty valuable, both now and in the future. Indeed, they think the potential of what Tesla makes is so valuable that no company has itself become so valuable despite selling so little\n\n\n It makes sense that the Information Technology Revolution would make lots of fortunes through the manipulation of bits. But maybe now we are shifting back to wealth creations via the manipulation of atoms — enabled, of course, by IT advances, including forms of AI — rather than our attention spans via social media. Tesla is one example, and more might be on the way. For example: Moderna is a $140 billion company thanks to its success developing mRNA vaccines to counter the coronavirus. One wonders about the economic potential of new genetic editing techniques…\n\n\n Biology, energy, space. The U.S. economy is about a lot more than tech firms serving us ads while we search online or while we bicker on social media platforms. Will it all add up to the start of a New Roaring Twenties or Roaring Twenty-First Century?\n\nTesla $3T might be a reach, even with all the company has going for it. But the question is pertinent given that the electric vehicle (EV) space as a whole is white hot, and competitors are lining up to snatch Tesla's crown. On Wednesday, General Motors (GM) chief Mary Barra came in from the top rope with a bold prediction made to CNBC, saying the auto giant could \"absolutely\" top Tesla's EV sales within the next four years.\nWhether or not GM is making empty boasts, Tesla’s bull case is growing more aggressive by the day. CFO Zachary Kirkhorn noted that in Q3, the company’s once-struggling deliveries were 20% higher quarter-over-quarter, and 70% higher than the comparable year-ago.\nThat makes analysts like those at Morgan Stanley more than eager to hike their price targets, and see a clear path to fresh record highs on the stock. The bank raised its target to $1,200 earlier this week, even as potential troubles loom from supply chain and geopolitics.\nStill, Morgan Stanley made a clear case for why Tesla’s more likely to see upside than down. “The Tesla you see today is the product of pre-COVID, sub $100 billion Tesla,” analysts wrote.\n“The Tesla you’ll likely see over the next 12 to 18 months would demonstrate the capabilities of the Trillion dollar Tesla: emphasizing step-changes in manufacturing, cost reduction... expansion in capacity, model lineup and services offerings,” the bank said, adding that the company “has been the world’s most valuable carmaker for some time.”\nAnd given a favorable environment for climate-friendly technology, there’s “a broad opportunity set for investors in green tech, both from existing and emerging technologies,” Morgan Stanley said.\n$3 trillion, here we come? Never say never.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856634456,"gmtCreate":1635172632625,"gmtModify":1635172693095,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856634456","repostId":"1177255738","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177255738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634953820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177255738?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-23 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177255738","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>\n <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>\n <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p>\n<p>In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p>\n<p>For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p>\n<p>Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p>\n<p>The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p>\n<p>Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p>\n<p>This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p>\n<p>The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p>\n<p>Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p>\n<p>Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p>\n<p>Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p>\n<p>One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p>\n<p>Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p>\n<p>Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p>\n<p><b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-23 09:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177255738","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.\nThe company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.\nPalantir & US Army Contract\nIn early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the Capability Drop 2 (CD-2) program.\nFor a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.\nStill, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.\nThe contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.\nPalantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:\nSource: Palantir\nThis alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:\nSource: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)\nThe National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.\nPalantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.\nPLTR Stock Forecast\nPalantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.\nManagement believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?\nData by YCharts\nMajor software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.\nOne can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario thatmightbe on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.\nPLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?\nPalantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.\nPalantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.\nNevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.\nIs This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?\n\nThe primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859979872,"gmtCreate":1634652884821,"gmtModify":1634653158295,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859979872","repostId":"1184821876","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824848818,"gmtCreate":1634305187981,"gmtModify":1634305188303,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824848818","repostId":"1154140637","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154140637","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634300873,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154140637?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 20:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is SoFi Stock Worth Buying Or Is It A Sell? It Depends On Revenue Growth And Profitability","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154140637","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSoFi has been growing rapidly, as evidenced by the significant increase in the company's me","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>SoFi has been growing rapidly, as evidenced by the significant increase in the company's membership base, the total number of product offerings, and revenue.</li>\n <li>SoFi's valuations are in the middle of the pack among its peers, and this seems fair given that it is still loss-making notwithstanding its attractive revenue growth prospects.</li>\n <li>SoFi is a Hold, considering its future prospects in terms of revenue growth and profitability.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86757d2b7d17b7fe7071210bad77f795\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Elevator Pitch</p>\n<p>I have a Hold or Neutral rating assigned to SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI).</p>\n<p>Based on Wall Street's revenue forecasts and the company's financial targets, SOFI is expected to be able to maintain robust top line expansion (i.e. annual revenue growth in the +30%-60% range) over the next few years, and I see cross-selling as the key driver supporting the company's future growth expectations.</p>\n<p>SoFi Technologies' forward price-to-sales multiples in the high single-digit to low-teens range appear reasonable. On one hand, the company has the strongest revenue growth potential in its peer group. On the other hand, SOFI is expected to reach profitability by fiscal 2023, while its peers are already in the black.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, I think thatSoFi'sstock is neither worth buying nor a strong Sell now, which translates into a Neutral investment rating for the name.</p>\n<p><b>Company Description</b></p>\n<p>On its investors' FAQs webpage, SoFi Technologies, Inc&nbsp;refers to itself&nbsp;as a company that \"was founded in April 2011 out of Stanford GSB (Graduate School of Business) with the goal of pioneering MBA peer-to-peer student loan refinancing.\"</p>\n<p>SOFI also began providing mortgages and personal loans in&nbsp;2014 and 2015, respectively. In 2019, SoFi Technologies ventured into financial services with the introduction of&nbsp;SoFi Money&nbsp;(\"cash management account\") and&nbsp;SoFi Invest&nbsp;(\"brokerage account\"). In 2020, SoFi Technologies bought out Galileo Financial Technologies, which it&nbsp;called&nbsp;\"a global payments platform\" that \"enables critical checking and savings account-like functionality via its powerful open APIs (Application Programming Interfaces).\"</p>\n<p>SOFI's Lending, Technology Platform and Financial Services business segments contributed&nbsp;73%, 21%, and 6%&nbsp;of the company's revenue, respectively in the first half of 2021.</p>\n<p><b>SOFI's Three Business Segments</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f8f049f7c677bfec09dfa10c8206759\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SoFi Technologies' Q2 2021 Financial Results Presentation Slides</span></p>\n<p><b>Is SoFi Growing?</b></p>\n<p>As of June 30, 2021, SoFi Technologies had approximately 2.6 million members and 3.7 million products (lending and financial services). In its&nbsp;Q2 2021 earnings report, SOFI defines members as \"someone who has a lending relationship with us through origination or servicing, opened a financial services account, linked an external account to our platform, or signed up for our credit score monitoring service\".</p>\n<p>Based on my calculations, SOFI's membership base and product portfolio grew by two-year CAGRs of +84% and +105%, respectively up to the end of the second quarter of this year. SoFi Technologies' total number of accounts for its Technology Platform business segment also more than doubled from 36.0 million as of June 30, 2020 to 78.9 million as of June 30, 2021 following the company's acquisition of Galileo last year, as per its second-quarter earnings report.</p>\n<p>SoFi Technologies' adjusted net revenue, which it&nbsp;calculates as&nbsp;\"total net revenue, adjusted to exclude the fair value changes in servicing rights and residual interests classified as debt\", increased by +74% YoY from $136.3 million in Q2 2020 to $237.2 million in Q2 2021. During the same period, SOFI reversed from an operating loss of -$23.8 million a year ago to register a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of +$11.2 million in the recent quarter.</p>\n<p>It is clear that SoFi has been growing very fast.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, both the company management and sell-side analysts expect SoFi Technologies' strong revenue growth momentum to be sustained in the next couple of years, as per the two charts presented below.</p>\n<p><b>Company Management's Revenue Growth Expectations</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5eb50b028f4e5e56d9965bab4f8e76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"596\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SOFI's January 2021 Investor Presentation Slides</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51fce29fb44c295bbcf5d1dac2a012e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"190\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha's Earnings Page For SOFI</span></p>\n<p>I attribute the positive growth outlook for SOFI to its key value proposition of making a wide range of financial products and services available on a single platform, which translates to a huge potential for cross-selling.</p>\n<p><b>SoFi Technologies' Value Proposition</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a7797ec8573542b65518e9d3aa8de0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SOFI's January 2021 Investor Presentation Slides</span></p>\n<p><b>SoFi Technologies' Integrated Financial Solutions In A Single App</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb69af9d4d4ad110793256b6ba63dd85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SOFI's January 2021 Investor Presentation Slides</span></p>\n<p>As evidence of SoFi Technologies' efforts to drive cross-selling in the past, SOFI's products per member (calculated as total number of products divided by its membership base) increased from 1.14 in Q2 2019 to 1.43 in Q2 2021. At the company's Q2 2021 earnings call, SOFI also&nbsp;highlighted&nbsp;that a tripling of the \"number of financial services products held by SoFi members\" led to \"a 1.7x increase in the number of products that were cross-bought in the quarter versus Q2 2020.\"</p>\n<p>More significantly, SoFi has set a target for the Financial Services business segment to account for&nbsp;32%&nbsp;of the company's total adjusted revenue in fiscal 2025, as compared with the segment's current single-digit revenue contribution. As SoFi Technologies continues to ramp up its current financial services offerings and introduce new products &amp; services over time, the company should be able to realize its ambitious top line expansion targets.</p>\n<p><b>Is SoFi Stock Overvalued?</b></p>\n<p>SoFi's closing stock price as of June 1, 2021, the first day of its listing, was&nbsp;$22.65, and the company's shares later fell by -40% to an all-time trough of&nbsp;$13.65&nbsp;during intra-day on trading on August 17, 2021. SOFI's share price subsequently recovered by 39% in the next two months to close at $18.92 as of October 13, 2021.</p>\n<p>Considering the volatility in SoFi Technologies' share price in the four and half months following its listing, it is worth examining SOFI's valuations to see if the stock is either overvalued and undervalued.</p>\n<p><b>SoFi Technologies' Peer Valuation Comparison</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dea5543afac5a50276efbffdcbd4c81\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"749\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>As per the peer valuation comparison table above, the various stocks' forward price-to-sales ratios are largely correlated with their respective forecasted revenue growth rates (i.e. the better the revenue growth rates, the higher the valuation multiples), with the exception of SOFI.</p>\n<p>SoFi Technologies' revenue growth expectations are the best among its peers, but its price-to-sales valuation is in the middle of the pack. The key issue here is profitability, as SOFI is the only loss-making company in the peer group. Both&nbsp;sell-side analysts&nbsp;and&nbsp;management&nbsp;expect SOFI to only become profitable in fiscal 2023. As such, it is reasonable that the market assigns a discount to SoFi Technologies, given that the company is still in the red.</p>\n<p>I think that SOFI's shares are fairly valued. While the company's revenue growth prospects are excellent, it is not among the cheapest stocks in the sector and it is still unprofitable.</p>\n<p><b>Is SOFI Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold?</b></p>\n<p>A Hold rating is what I will assign to SOFI's shares.</p>\n<p>I am positive on the company's medium-term revenue outlook, especially in relation to its ability to cross-sell its products to support its future top line expansion. Notably, the revenue contribution of the Financial Services business segment is still very low, now in the single-digit percentage range, suggesting that there is significant room to market its existing offerings more aggressively and launch new products as well.</p>\n<p>On the flip side, I am concerned that if there is a significant shift (e.g. higher interest rates) in the current accommodating credit environment going forward, SoFi Technologies might take a longer-than-expected time (i.e. later than FY 2023 as per management guidance and Wall Street's forecasts) to achieve profitability, as a result of potentially more expensive funding and higher-than-expected credit losses. This will imply that the valuation discount assigned to SOFI for its lack of profitability could possibly persist for some time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is SoFi Stock Worth Buying Or Is It A Sell? It Depends On Revenue Growth And Profitability</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs SoFi Stock Worth Buying Or Is It A Sell? It Depends On Revenue Growth And Profitability\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-15 20:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459896-sofi-stock-worth-buying-or-sell><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nSoFi has been growing rapidly, as evidenced by the significant increase in the company's membership base, the total number of product offerings, and revenue.\nSoFi's valuations are in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459896-sofi-stock-worth-buying-or-sell\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459896-sofi-stock-worth-buying-or-sell","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154140637","content_text":"Summary\n\nSoFi has been growing rapidly, as evidenced by the significant increase in the company's membership base, the total number of product offerings, and revenue.\nSoFi's valuations are in the middle of the pack among its peers, and this seems fair given that it is still loss-making notwithstanding its attractive revenue growth prospects.\nSoFi is a Hold, considering its future prospects in terms of revenue growth and profitability.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nElevator Pitch\nI have a Hold or Neutral rating assigned to SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI).\nBased on Wall Street's revenue forecasts and the company's financial targets, SOFI is expected to be able to maintain robust top line expansion (i.e. annual revenue growth in the +30%-60% range) over the next few years, and I see cross-selling as the key driver supporting the company's future growth expectations.\nSoFi Technologies' forward price-to-sales multiples in the high single-digit to low-teens range appear reasonable. On one hand, the company has the strongest revenue growth potential in its peer group. On the other hand, SOFI is expected to reach profitability by fiscal 2023, while its peers are already in the black.\nIn conclusion, I think thatSoFi'sstock is neither worth buying nor a strong Sell now, which translates into a Neutral investment rating for the name.\nCompany Description\nOn its investors' FAQs webpage, SoFi Technologies, Inc refers to itself as a company that \"was founded in April 2011 out of Stanford GSB (Graduate School of Business) with the goal of pioneering MBA peer-to-peer student loan refinancing.\"\nSOFI also began providing mortgages and personal loans in 2014 and 2015, respectively. In 2019, SoFi Technologies ventured into financial services with the introduction of SoFi Money (\"cash management account\") and SoFi Invest (\"brokerage account\"). In 2020, SoFi Technologies bought out Galileo Financial Technologies, which it called \"a global payments platform\" that \"enables critical checking and savings account-like functionality via its powerful open APIs (Application Programming Interfaces).\"\nSOFI's Lending, Technology Platform and Financial Services business segments contributed 73%, 21%, and 6% of the company's revenue, respectively in the first half of 2021.\nSOFI's Three Business Segments\nSource: SoFi Technologies' Q2 2021 Financial Results Presentation Slides\nIs SoFi Growing?\nAs of June 30, 2021, SoFi Technologies had approximately 2.6 million members and 3.7 million products (lending and financial services). In its Q2 2021 earnings report, SOFI defines members as \"someone who has a lending relationship with us through origination or servicing, opened a financial services account, linked an external account to our platform, or signed up for our credit score monitoring service\".\nBased on my calculations, SOFI's membership base and product portfolio grew by two-year CAGRs of +84% and +105%, respectively up to the end of the second quarter of this year. SoFi Technologies' total number of accounts for its Technology Platform business segment also more than doubled from 36.0 million as of June 30, 2020 to 78.9 million as of June 30, 2021 following the company's acquisition of Galileo last year, as per its second-quarter earnings report.\nSoFi Technologies' adjusted net revenue, which it calculates as \"total net revenue, adjusted to exclude the fair value changes in servicing rights and residual interests classified as debt\", increased by +74% YoY from $136.3 million in Q2 2020 to $237.2 million in Q2 2021. During the same period, SOFI reversed from an operating loss of -$23.8 million a year ago to register a positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of +$11.2 million in the recent quarter.\nIt is clear that SoFi has been growing very fast.\nLooking ahead, both the company management and sell-side analysts expect SoFi Technologies' strong revenue growth momentum to be sustained in the next couple of years, as per the two charts presented below.\nCompany Management's Revenue Growth Expectations\nSource: SOFI's January 2021 Investor Presentation Slides\nSource: Seeking Alpha's Earnings Page For SOFI\nI attribute the positive growth outlook for SOFI to its key value proposition of making a wide range of financial products and services available on a single platform, which translates to a huge potential for cross-selling.\nSoFi Technologies' Value Proposition\nSource: SOFI's January 2021 Investor Presentation Slides\nSoFi Technologies' Integrated Financial Solutions In A Single App\nSource: SOFI's January 2021 Investor Presentation Slides\nAs evidence of SoFi Technologies' efforts to drive cross-selling in the past, SOFI's products per member (calculated as total number of products divided by its membership base) increased from 1.14 in Q2 2019 to 1.43 in Q2 2021. At the company's Q2 2021 earnings call, SOFI also highlighted that a tripling of the \"number of financial services products held by SoFi members\" led to \"a 1.7x increase in the number of products that were cross-bought in the quarter versus Q2 2020.\"\nMore significantly, SoFi has set a target for the Financial Services business segment to account for 32% of the company's total adjusted revenue in fiscal 2025, as compared with the segment's current single-digit revenue contribution. As SoFi Technologies continues to ramp up its current financial services offerings and introduce new products & services over time, the company should be able to realize its ambitious top line expansion targets.\nIs SoFi Stock Overvalued?\nSoFi's closing stock price as of June 1, 2021, the first day of its listing, was $22.65, and the company's shares later fell by -40% to an all-time trough of $13.65 during intra-day on trading on August 17, 2021. SOFI's share price subsequently recovered by 39% in the next two months to close at $18.92 as of October 13, 2021.\nConsidering the volatility in SoFi Technologies' share price in the four and half months following its listing, it is worth examining SOFI's valuations to see if the stock is either overvalued and undervalued.\nSoFi Technologies' Peer Valuation Comparison\nSource: S&P Capital IQ\nAs per the peer valuation comparison table above, the various stocks' forward price-to-sales ratios are largely correlated with their respective forecasted revenue growth rates (i.e. the better the revenue growth rates, the higher the valuation multiples), with the exception of SOFI.\nSoFi Technologies' revenue growth expectations are the best among its peers, but its price-to-sales valuation is in the middle of the pack. The key issue here is profitability, as SOFI is the only loss-making company in the peer group. Both sell-side analysts and management expect SOFI to only become profitable in fiscal 2023. As such, it is reasonable that the market assigns a discount to SoFi Technologies, given that the company is still in the red.\nI think that SOFI's shares are fairly valued. While the company's revenue growth prospects are excellent, it is not among the cheapest stocks in the sector and it is still unprofitable.\nIs SOFI Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold?\nA Hold rating is what I will assign to SOFI's shares.\nI am positive on the company's medium-term revenue outlook, especially in relation to its ability to cross-sell its products to support its future top line expansion. Notably, the revenue contribution of the Financial Services business segment is still very low, now in the single-digit percentage range, suggesting that there is significant room to market its existing offerings more aggressively and launch new products as well.\nOn the flip side, I am concerned that if there is a significant shift (e.g. higher interest rates) in the current accommodating credit environment going forward, SoFi Technologies might take a longer-than-expected time (i.e. later than FY 2023 as per management guidance and Wall Street's forecasts) to achieve profitability, as a result of potentially more expensive funding and higher-than-expected credit losses. This will imply that the valuation discount assigned to SOFI for its lack of profitability could possibly persist for some time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160116820,"gmtCreate":1623774617660,"gmtModify":1634028407144,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160116820","repostId":"1121368819","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160118238,"gmtCreate":1623774588524,"gmtModify":1634028407733,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160118238","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117340282,"gmtCreate":1623118671247,"gmtModify":1634036738064,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117340282","repostId":"1156802172","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109417686,"gmtCreate":1619709683145,"gmtModify":1634210510066,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109417686","repostId":"1183966356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183966356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619665696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183966356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183966356","media":"InvestoPedia","summary":"Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.NIO Inc. , like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles . NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record ve","content":"<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p>\n<p><b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>\n <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>\n <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p>\n<p>Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p>\n<p>Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p>\n<p><b>NIO Earnings History</b></p>\n<p>The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p>\n<p>In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p>\n<p><b>The Key Metric</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p>\n<p>NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 11:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991><strong>InvestoPedia</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183966356","content_text":"Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.\n\nNIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.\nInvestors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.\nVehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.\nShares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 45.5%.\nSource: TradingView.\nNIO Earnings History\nThe stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's Q4 FY 2020 earnings report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its gross margin rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.\nIn Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.\nAnalysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.\nSource: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.\nThe Key Metric\nAs mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.\nNIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100687950,"gmtCreate":1619609593270,"gmtModify":1634211378728,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and 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!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354077826","repostId":"1163996400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356502746,"gmtCreate":1616785266285,"gmtModify":1634524000767,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356502746","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358625982,"gmtCreate":1616686463146,"gmtModify":1634524538165,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358625982","repostId":"2122443771","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358621873,"gmtCreate":1616686246092,"gmtModify":1634524539805,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358621873","repostId":"2122624446","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353558731,"gmtCreate":1616509240323,"gmtModify":1634525443295,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574662449014770","authorIdStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353558731","repostId":"1195122405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195122405","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616509155,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195122405?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 22:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"All three major U.S. stock indexes turned green from red.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195122405","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"All three major U.S. stock indexes turned green from red.","content":"<p>All three major U.S. stock indexes turned green from red.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7x24快讯\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-23 22:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All three major U.S. stock indexes turned green from red.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195122405","content_text":"All three major U.S. stock indexes turned green from 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342446116","repostId":"1130056228","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371657462,"gmtCreate":1618933355356,"gmtModify":1634289770650,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment","listText":"Like my comment","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371657462","repostId":"1121126533","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100687950,"gmtCreate":1619609593270,"gmtModify":1634211378728,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100687950","repostId":"1131068131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327253887,"gmtCreate":1616093264049,"gmtModify":1634527268683,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327253887","repostId":"2120163660","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360551193,"gmtCreate":1613958846412,"gmtModify":1634551772418,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360551193","repostId":"1143100356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160118238,"gmtCreate":1623774588524,"gmtModify":1634028407733,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160118238","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":350354973,"gmtCreate":1616162542992,"gmtModify":1634526927089,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350354973","repostId":"1106180509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358621873,"gmtCreate":1616686246092,"gmtModify":1634524539805,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358621873","repostId":"2122624446","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323181398,"gmtCreate":1615309919214,"gmtModify":1703487242346,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment 😁","listText":"Like my comment 😁","text":"Like my comment 😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323181398","repostId":"1194586000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363477283,"gmtCreate":1614169526042,"gmtModify":1634550903734,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363477283","repostId":"1138795890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364019679,"gmtCreate":1614784621091,"gmtModify":1703481145438,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364019679","repostId":"1130537334","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130537334","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614782065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130537334?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-03 22:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks open lower on Wednesday; Dow down 0.11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130537334","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"(March 3) Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Wednesday as disappointing private employment d","content":"<p>(March 3)&nbsp;Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Wednesday as disappointing private employment data for February dampened enthusiasm over a quick economic rebound fueled by a swift rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p>The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&amp;P 500 dropped 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.14%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98e844edb04216bd6ef160e1ddfc0f5\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks open lower on Wednesday; Dow down 0.11%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks open lower on Wednesday; Dow down 0.11%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-03 22:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(March 3)&nbsp;Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Wednesday as disappointing private employment data for February dampened enthusiasm over a quick economic rebound fueled by a swift rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p>The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&amp;P 500 dropped 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.14%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98e844edb04216bd6ef160e1ddfc0f5\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130537334","content_text":"(March 3) Wall Street's main indexes opened lower on Wednesday as disappointing private employment data for February dampened enthusiasm over a quick economic rebound fueled by a swift rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.14%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365379843,"gmtCreate":1614698721782,"gmtModify":1703480101755,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365379843","repostId":"1172570236","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384143099,"gmtCreate":1613631128911,"gmtModify":1634552867467,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384143099","repostId":"1191194919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":854337088,"gmtCreate":1635418842941,"gmtModify":1635419122688,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow!!!","listText":"wow!!!","text":"wow!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854337088","repostId":"2178252242","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":109417686,"gmtCreate":1619709683145,"gmtModify":1634210510066,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109417686","repostId":"1183966356","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183966356","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619665696,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183966356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183966356","media":"InvestoPedia","summary":"Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.NIO Inc. , like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles . NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record ve","content":"<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries</p>\n<p><b>KEY TAKEAWAYS</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Analysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.</li>\n <li>Vehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.</li>\n <li>Revenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.</p>\n<p>Investors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.</p>\n<p>Vehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&amp;P 500's total return of 45.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11e1a915810ccbc7f07ec2adf16865b\" tg-width=\"3004\" tg-height=\"1798\"><span>Source: TradingView.</span></p>\n<p><b>NIO Earnings History</b></p>\n<p>The stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's&nbsp;Q4 FY 2020 earnings&nbsp;report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its&nbsp;gross margin&nbsp;rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p>\n<p>In Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d412a9c0aea28621f713f5afbfba444c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>Source: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.</span></p>\n<p><b>The Key Metric</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.</p>\n<p>NIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.</p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Q1 2021 Earnings Report Preview: What to Look For\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-29 11:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991><strong>InvestoPedia</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/nio-q1-2021-earnings-report-preview-5180991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183966356","content_text":"Focus on NIO vehicle deliveries\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nAnalysts estimate earnings per ADS of -0.72 yuan vs. -1.66 yuan in Q1 FY 2020.\nVehicle deliveries, already announced, rose dramatically YOY.\nRevenue is expected to soar on expanding vehicle sales.\n\nNIO Inc. (NIO), like many other automakers, was forced to halt production this year due to the global semiconductor shortage. Semiconductor chips, widely used in smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices, are especially important to NIO, a maker of premium electric vehicles (EVs). NIO's production stoppage in late March had little impact on the company's record vehicle deliveries in Q1, but it could affect future production numbers.\nInvestors will focus on how these forces affect NIO's immediate results, as well as its financial outlook, when the company reports earnings on April 29, 2021 for Q1 FY 2021.Analysts are expecting the company's loss per American depositary share (ADS) to narrow significantly as revenue expands at a rapid pace.\nVehicle deliveries are another key metric investors watch in order to gauge the company's productive capacity. NIO already reported vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month, achieving a new quarterly record despite total deliveries coming in slightly below expectations.\nShares of NIO have dramatically outperformed the broader market over the past year. But after reaching all-time highs earlier this year, the stock has fallen considerably and has been trading mostly sideways since early March. NIO's shares have provided investors with an astronomic total return of 1,171.9% over the past year, well above the S&P 500's total return of 45.5%.\nSource: TradingView.\nNIO Earnings History\nThe stock, which had been gathering downward momentum after peaking around mid-February, plunged following NIO's Q4 FY 2020 earnings report released at the beginning of March. The company reported a much larger loss per ADS than analysts expected and revenue also missed estimates. However, NIO's loss narrowed considerably compared to the year-ago quarter and revenue was still up 133.2%.The company was optimistic about its performance, noting that its gross margin rose to 17.2% compared to negative 8.9% in the year-ago quarter.\nIn Q3 FY 2020, NIO posted a loss per ADS of 0.98 yuan ($0.15 as of the CNY/USD exchange rate on April 27, 2021).It was the smallest loss in at least 11 quarters. Revenue rose 146.4%, maintaining the pace of growth achieved in the second quarter.NIO said it delivered a record number of vehicles and saw improvements in its average selling price. The company also said that it was the second straight quarter of positive cash flow from operating activities.\nAnalysts expect continued improvement in NIO's financial results in Q1 FY 2021. While NIO is still expected to post another loss per ADS, it is estimated to be the lowest in at least 14 quarters. Revenue for the quarter is forecast to rise 446.1%, which would be the fastest pace since Q2 FY 2019. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are currently expecting NIO to achieve a loss of 2.72 yuan per ADS, which would be the smallest loss in at least five years. Revenue is expected to rise 109.7%, a faster pace than in each of the last two years.\nSource: Visible Alpha; NIO Inc.\nThe Key Metric\nAs mentioned above, investors are also watching the number of vehicles NIO delivers each quarter. NIO generates some revenue from various services it provides, but the majority of revenue is derived from vehicle sales.Currently, the company makes deliveries of three types of vehicles: the ES8, the company's 6-seater and 7-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV; the ES6, the company’s 5-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV; and the EC6, the company’s 5-seater premium electric coupe SUV.The number of vehicle deliveries provides an indication of the demand for NIO's vehicles as well as the company's ability to scale production.\nNIO has significantly ramped up its production over the past few years. The company delivered 11,350 vehicles in FY 2018. In FY 2020, it had nearly quadrupled that figure, delivering 43,730 vehicles. Despite a slowdown in Q1 FY 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, NIO quickly made up for the Q1 drop in deliveries with a 190.8% year-over-year increase in Q2 FY 2020. Total vehicle delivery growth decelerated to 154.3% in Q3 and then to 111.0% in Q4. However, vehicle deliveries rose 423.0% in Q1 FY 2021, hitting a new quarterly record, as mentioned above. For full-year FY 2021, analysts are forecasting NIO to deliver 88,280 vehicles, which would be more than double last year's total deliveries. However, NIO warned investors in early March that the global chip shortage is likely to cut its production capacity, at least in the second quarter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356502746,"gmtCreate":1616785266285,"gmtModify":1634524000767,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356502746","repostId":"1141686975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141686975","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616780260,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141686975?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-27 01:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141686975","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO pri","content":"<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhihu Technology fall on its first day of trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-27 01:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02&nbsp;each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price&nbsp;$9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4672a089b4ebb0a889cbfbeb32b48594\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"959\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Zhihu Inc.&nbsp;announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.</p><p>Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.</p><p><b>Sales Breakdown</b></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.</p><p>Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.</p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.</p><p><b>Gross Margins</b></p><p>The company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.</p><p><b>Total Operating Expenses and Operating Margins</b></p><p>Total operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c019cc86f4d4c1d9ffe15d3b4a4bfa75\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef629be32d2c34d625cb287ad648206d\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9561a02993fbc88c2cad88e68c08730\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Company Background</b></p><p>At the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.</p><p>In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.</p><p>Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&amp;As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.</p><p><b>Major Shareholders of Zhihu</b></p><p>The founder &amp; CEO&nbsp;Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.</p><p><b>Key Demographics</b></p><p>The diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/524d689472daad1c99491d74dfdbfe24\" tg-width=\"295\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Revenue Breakdown</b></p><p>Advertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.</p><p>Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.</p><p>In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions &amp; answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.</p><p>Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.</p><p>China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).</p><p><b>Market Opportunities</b></p><p><b>China’s Online Content Communities Market Size</b></p><p>Online content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.</p><p>China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.</p><p>China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.</p><p>One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.</p><p><b>China's Online Content Market</b></p><p>China's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.</p><p><b>China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69a7db9cacf26245273702a255aabdb8\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Market Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee42792caf4aa2cbdcd17f757a75727\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>China’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff121d78cb1dd922d524a78570152e\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Content-commerce solutions</b></p><p>To provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.</p><p><b>China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01a230d3fb2d4cf4aeeebfd5c3c691c3\" tg-width=\"520\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141686975","content_text":"Zhihu Technology shares opened at $8.02 each on Friday, about 15.6% lower than the company’s IPO price $9.5.Zhihu IPO prices at low end of the range, valuing company at about $5.3 billion.Zhihu Inc. announced Friday the pricing of its initial public offering, at $9.50 per American depositary share, which was at the low end of the expected range. The China-based online content company offered 55 million ADS in the IPO to raise $522.5 million, while the pricing valued the company at about $5.31 billion.Zhihu has a similar business model as Quora where millions of people ask questions and exchange their views and experiences. Zhihu has become the largest online question and answer community in China.Sales BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. We estimate advertising as a percentage of revenues to gradually decline in the next five years as it is offset by the faster growing Paid Memberships and Content Commerce Solutions. We estimate advertising as a percentage of sales to decline to 34.1% in 2021 and 22.3% in 2025.Paid Memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. We have assumed Paid Membership revenues as a percentage of total revenues to increase to 31.5% in 2021 and 37.8% in 2025.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans. We have assumed Content Commerce Solutions as a percentage of total revenue to jump from 10% in 2020 to 17.8% in 2021 and 32.3% in 2025.Gross MarginsThe company's gross margins improved from 46.6% in 2019 to 56.0% in 2020, driven by an overall improving business scalability. We have assumed further improvements in gross margins to 57.4% in 2021 and 62.3% in 2025.Total Operating Expenses and Operating MarginsTotal operating expenses as a percentage of revenues declined significantly from 204.4% in 2019 to 100.6% in 2020. We expect this ratio to improve further to 79% in 2021, 69.2% in 2022, and 57.2% in 2025. The bulk of the improvements in operating expenses is coming from lower SG&A and R&D expenses as a percentage of revenues in the next five years.Company BackgroundAt the end of 2020, Zhihu had more than 43.1 million cumulative content creators that contributed 315 million questions and answers. In 4Q 2020, the company had 75.7 million average monthly active users, up 33% YoY. One of the key strengths of the company is that it is recognized as one of the most trustworthy online content communities and regarded as providing one of the highest quality content in China. Zhihu has tried to capitalize on its large user base to provide numerous multimedia functions including live streaming, e-commerce, online education, and other video content.In August 2019, Zhihu received $434 million in funding from leading investors including Baidu and Kuaishou Technology, valuing the company at $3.5 billion. Given that the company had $97 million in sales in 2019, this would suggest a P/S valuation multiple of 36x. If we take the same P/S multiple apply to the company's 2020 sales of $207 million, this would suggest an implied valuation of $7.5 billion.Zhihu was originally developed as a question and answer online community in 2010. At the end of 2020, there were a total of 315 million Q&As spanning more than 1,000 verticals and 571,000 topics. Zhihu is one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020. The company uses artificial intelligence, cloud, and big data algorithms to improve the optimization of its content and services.Major Shareholders of ZhihuThe founder & CEO Zhou Yuanowns an 8.2% stake in the company (but 46.6% voting rights). Sinovation Ventures owns a 13.1% stake and Tencent Holdings Ltd. owns a 12.3% stake of Zhihu.Key DemographicsThe diagram below provides some of the key demographics of Zhihu user base. Males accounted for 56.9% of total users. People under 30 years old accounted for 78.7% of its total user base. Tier I and new tier I cities represented 52.6% of total user base. Many of the users of Zhihu are students and white collar professionals.Revenue BreakdownAdvertising and paid memberships account for the biggest portion of the company's revenues. Advertising accounted for 86.1% and 62.4% of total revenues in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The company's advertising revenue is mainly driven by its MAUs and advertising revenue per MAU. The company's MAUs increased by 42.7% YoY to 68.5 million in 2020. The company started its online advertising business in 2016 and introduced paid content in 2018.Paid memberships represented 13.1% of total revenues in 2019, which increased to 23.7% of total revenues in 2020. Average monthly members jumped by 311.5% YoY to 2.36 million in 2020, which is a testament of an increasing number of customers that value the premium content available on Zhihu.In March 2019, the company introduced the Yan Selection membership program, making it the first payment-based questions & answers community. It provides its members with unlimited access to about 3.4 million paid content including online lectures, columns, audio books, and e-journals. This is one of the biggest strengths of the company as it shows how high quality data and content can generate serious amount of revenues and it also provides a more steady monthly revenue inflow.Content Commerce Solutions and Other sales also increased sharply in 2020. Content Commerce Solutions revenues jumped from 0.6 million RMB in 2019 to 135.8 million RMB in 2020. In early 2020, the company launched Content-Commerce solutions, which provide merchants and brands a one-stop shop for all of their sales and marketing needs, including marketing plans, assigning the most relevant content creators to interested users, and facilitating content creation.China's content-commerce solution market is expected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in the next several years. According to CIC Consultancy, China's content-commerce solution market is expected to enjoy a strong CAGR growth of 46.4% from 2019 to 2025 (112.3 billion RMB).Market OpportunitiesChina’s Online Content Communities Market SizeOnline content communities refer to UGC (user generated content)-focused (including PUGC (professional user generated content) focused online content market players where content creators are also users, who are actively engaged within the communities. The content communities generally can stimulate higher level of user engagement, more interactive user experience, and enjoy lower content cost, compared to PGC (professionally generated content) players. PGC is content created by the branded company or organization.China's online content communities market size increased from 38.6 billion RMB in 2015 to 275.8 billion RMB in 2019 and is further expected to rise to 1.3 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 30.3% from 2019 to 2025, which is higher than the overall online content market growth.China's online content community market has more diversified monetization channels including online advertising, paid membership, content e-commerce, content-commerce solutions, virtual gifting in live streaming, online games, and online education services. In comparison, the US online content community's monetization is mainly through advertising.One of the major positives about the company is the growing trend of more Chinese consumers that are willing to pay money for higher quality content. The number of paying users in China’s online content communities is expected to increase at a CAGR of 17.1% between 2019 and 2025, which means an increase of 360.4 million extra paying users of online content communities to 588.2 million in 2025.China's Online Content MarketChina's online content market tripled from 2015 to reach 1.2 trillion RMB in 2019. This market is expected to increase to 3.7 trillion RMB in 2025, representing a CAGR of 21.4% from 2019 to 2025.China’s Online Content Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EMarket Size of China’s Online Content Communities (in terms of revenue),2015-2025EChina’s Paid Membership Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025EContent-commerce solutionsTo provide integrated marketing services, the online content communities provide content-commerce solutions for content creation, content distribution, and content conversion. The company provides integrated content-commerce solutions, providing merchants and brands one-stop services for all their sales and marketing needs, from making marketing plans, facilitating content creation, assigning the most relevant content creators, to distributing to the interested users. China's content commerce solution market is expected to grow from 11.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 112.3 billion RMB in 2025, at a CAGR of 46.4%.China’s Content-Commerce Solution Market Size (in terms of revenue), 2015-2025E","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358625982,"gmtCreate":1616686463146,"gmtModify":1634524538165,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358625982","repostId":"2122443771","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328302197,"gmtCreate":1615484957119,"gmtModify":1703489882325,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328302197","repostId":"1119544264","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363184876,"gmtCreate":1614105191695,"gmtModify":1634551154507,"author":{"id":"3574662449014770","authorId":"3574662449014770","name":"VONNE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/438611ee296f83f2798a33a1d4c44a1c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574662449014770","idStr":"3574662449014770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363184876","repostId":"1178144401","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}