JammyJammy的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JammyJammy

JammyJammy

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

3关注

1粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-08-03

I think the fear of Chinese Regulators is overdone now. $BABA at bargain prices and management backing this up with increasing the share buy backs and heavily investing in future growth. Long term hold for me and will try to pick more up month on month at these levels.

Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue

2021-06-18

I wouldn't be surprised if the hedge funds are trading this both ways. Retail traders please be careful.

AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3586515948790570","uuid":"3586515948790570","gmtCreate":1623425662722,"gmtModify":1624026426949,"name":"JammyJammy","pinyin":"jammyjammy","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a489364a0ceb07e8294c389755b2d8","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":3,"tweetSize":2,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.04.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.99%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.23","exceedPercentage":"80.10%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":807360539,"gmtCreate":1628000875721,"gmtModify":1628003119495,"author":{"id":"3586515948790570","authorId":"3586515948790570","name":"JammyJammy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a489364a0ceb07e8294c389755b2d8","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586515948790570","authorIdStr":"3586515948790570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think the fear of Chinese Regulators is overdone now. $BABA at bargain prices and management backing this up with increasing the share buy backs and heavily investing in future growth. Long term hold for me and will try to pick more up month on month at these levels.","listText":"I think the fear of Chinese Regulators is overdone now. $BABA at bargain prices and management backing this up with increasing the share buy backs and heavily investing in future growth. Long term hold for me and will try to pick more up month on month at these levels.","text":"I think the fear of Chinese Regulators is overdone now. $BABA at bargain prices and management backing this up with increasing the share buy backs and heavily investing in future growth. Long term hold for me and will try to pick more up month on month at these levels.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807360539","repostId":"1169635195","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169635195","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627988246,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169635195?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 18:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169635195","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" $Alibaba$ posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:. Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.Revenue was RMB205,740 million , an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million .Annual active consumersof the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached app","content":"<p>(August 3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> posted&nbsp;financial&nbsp;result&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket,&nbsp;which&nbsp;showed&nbsp;that:</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.</p>\n<p><b>BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS</b></p>\n<p><b>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Revenue</b>&nbsp;was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).</li>\n <li><b>Annual active consumers</b>of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.</li>\n <li><b>Income from operations</b>&nbsp;was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.<b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).<b>Adjusted EBITA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.</li>\n <li><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>&nbsp;was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),and<b>net income</b>was RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).<b>Non-GAAP net income</b>&nbsp;was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.</li>\n <li><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b>&nbsp;was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) and<b>diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).<b>Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS</b>was RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year and<b>non-GAAP diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.</li>\n <li><b>Net cashprovided by operating activities</b>&nbsp;was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).<b>Non-GAAP free cash flow</b>was RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11aa08a1ccb4f80e6867c7e7631297c8\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>China Retail Marketplaces</b></p>\n<p>In June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Computing</b></p>\n<p>In the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.</p>\n<p><b>Cash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow</b></p>\n<p>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.</p>\n<p><b>Increasing Share Repurchases</b></p>\n<p>Since April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf53593de78f5f6e4fa1096d7aae94\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n<p>In June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.</p>\n<p>“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”</p>\n<p>“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-03 18:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> posted&nbsp;financial&nbsp;result&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket,&nbsp;which&nbsp;showed&nbsp;that:</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.</p>\n<p><b>BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS</b></p>\n<p><b>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Revenue</b>&nbsp;was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).</li>\n <li><b>Annual active consumers</b>of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.</li>\n <li><b>Income from operations</b>&nbsp;was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.<b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).<b>Adjusted EBITA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.</li>\n <li><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>&nbsp;was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),and<b>net income</b>was RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).<b>Non-GAAP net income</b>&nbsp;was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.</li>\n <li><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b>&nbsp;was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) and<b>diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).<b>Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS</b>was RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year and<b>non-GAAP diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.</li>\n <li><b>Net cashprovided by operating activities</b>&nbsp;was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).<b>Non-GAAP free cash flow</b>was RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11aa08a1ccb4f80e6867c7e7631297c8\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>China Retail Marketplaces</b></p>\n<p>In June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Computing</b></p>\n<p>In the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.</p>\n<p><b>Cash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow</b></p>\n<p>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.</p>\n<p><b>Increasing Share Repurchases</b></p>\n<p>Since April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf53593de78f5f6e4fa1096d7aae94\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n<p>In June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.</p>\n<p>“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”</p>\n<p>“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169635195","content_text":"(August 3) Alibaba posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:\nAlibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.\nAlibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.\nBUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS\nIn the quarter ended June 30, 2021:\n\nRevenue was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).\nAnnual active consumersof the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.\nIncome from operations was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).Adjusted EBITA, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.\nNet income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),andnet incomewas RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).Non-GAAP net income was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.\nDiluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) anddiluted earnings per sharewas RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADSwas RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year andnon-GAAP diluted earnings per sharewas RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.\nNet cashprovided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).Non-GAAP free cash flowwas RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.\n\n\nChina Retail Marketplaces\nIn June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.\nCloud Computing\nIn the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.\nCash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow\nIn the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.\nIncreasing Share Repurchases\nSince April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.\n\nWe are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”\nIn June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.\n“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”\n“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166432260,"gmtCreate":1624021894550,"gmtModify":1624021894550,"author":{"id":"3586515948790570","authorId":"3586515948790570","name":"JammyJammy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a489364a0ceb07e8294c389755b2d8","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586515948790570","authorIdStr":"3586515948790570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I wouldn't be surprised if the hedge funds are trading this both ways. Retail traders please be careful.","listText":"I wouldn't be surprised if the hedge funds are trading this both ways. Retail traders please be careful.","text":"I wouldn't be surprised if the hedge funds are trading this both ways. Retail traders please be careful.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166432260","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>\n <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>\n <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>\n <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p>\n<p><b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p>\n<p>Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p>\n<p>Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p>\n<p><b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p>\n<p>I start with the key assumptions:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p>\n<p><i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p>\n<p><b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p>\n<p><b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p>\n<p><b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p>\n<p>We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>\n <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p>\n<p>We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p>\n<p><i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p>\n<p><b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p>\n<p>Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p>\n<p>Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p>\n<blockquote>\n “[\n <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Pretty clever, no? No:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Uh oh. What now?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ouch.</p>\n<p><b>Buyers beware</b></p>\n<p>As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p>\n<p>AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":807360539,"gmtCreate":1628000875721,"gmtModify":1628003119495,"author":{"id":"3586515948790570","authorId":"3586515948790570","name":"JammyJammy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a489364a0ceb07e8294c389755b2d8","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586515948790570","authorIdStr":"3586515948790570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think the fear of Chinese Regulators is overdone now. $BABA at bargain prices and management backing this up with increasing the share buy backs and heavily investing in future growth. Long term hold for me and will try to pick more up month on month at these levels.","listText":"I think the fear of Chinese Regulators is overdone now. $BABA at bargain prices and management backing this up with increasing the share buy backs and heavily investing in future growth. Long term hold for me and will try to pick more up month on month at these levels.","text":"I think the fear of Chinese Regulators is overdone now. $BABA at bargain prices and management backing this up with increasing the share buy backs and heavily investing in future growth. Long term hold for me and will try to pick more up month on month at these levels.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807360539","repostId":"1169635195","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169635195","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627988246,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169635195?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 18:57","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169635195","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" $Alibaba$ posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:. Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.Revenue was RMB205,740 million , an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million .Annual active consumersof the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached app","content":"<p>(August 3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> posted&nbsp;financial&nbsp;result&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket,&nbsp;which&nbsp;showed&nbsp;that:</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.</p>\n<p><b>BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS</b></p>\n<p><b>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Revenue</b>&nbsp;was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).</li>\n <li><b>Annual active consumers</b>of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.</li>\n <li><b>Income from operations</b>&nbsp;was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.<b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).<b>Adjusted EBITA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.</li>\n <li><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>&nbsp;was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),and<b>net income</b>was RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).<b>Non-GAAP net income</b>&nbsp;was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.</li>\n <li><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b>&nbsp;was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) and<b>diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).<b>Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS</b>was RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year and<b>non-GAAP diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.</li>\n <li><b>Net cashprovided by operating activities</b>&nbsp;was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).<b>Non-GAAP free cash flow</b>was RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11aa08a1ccb4f80e6867c7e7631297c8\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>China Retail Marketplaces</b></p>\n<p>In June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Computing</b></p>\n<p>In the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.</p>\n<p><b>Cash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow</b></p>\n<p>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.</p>\n<p><b>Increasing Share Repurchases</b></p>\n<p>Since April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf53593de78f5f6e4fa1096d7aae94\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n<p>In June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.</p>\n<p>“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”</p>\n<p>“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba EPS beats by RMB2.27, misses on revenue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-03 18:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(August 3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> posted&nbsp;financial&nbsp;result&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket,&nbsp;which&nbsp;showed&nbsp;that:</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.</p>\n<p><b>BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS</b></p>\n<p><b>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021:</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Revenue</b>&nbsp;was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).</li>\n <li><b>Annual active consumers</b>of the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.</li>\n <li><b>Income from operations</b>&nbsp;was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.<b>Adjusted EBITDA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).<b>Adjusted EBITA</b>, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.</li>\n <li><b>Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders</b>&nbsp;was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),and<b>net income</b>was RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).<b>Non-GAAP net income</b>&nbsp;was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.</li>\n <li><b>Diluted earnings per ADS</b>&nbsp;was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) and<b>diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).<b>Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS</b>was RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year and<b>non-GAAP diluted earnings per share</b>was RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.</li>\n <li><b>Net cashprovided by operating activities</b>&nbsp;was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).<b>Non-GAAP free cash flow</b>was RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11aa08a1ccb4f80e6867c7e7631297c8\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"863\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>China Retail Marketplaces</b></p>\n<p>In June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.</p>\n<p><b>Cloud Computing</b></p>\n<p>In the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.</p>\n<p><b>Cash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow</b></p>\n<p>In the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.</p>\n<p><b>Increasing Share Repurchases</b></p>\n<p>Since April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf53593de78f5f6e4fa1096d7aae94\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n<p>In June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.</p>\n<p>“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”</p>\n<p>“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169635195","content_text":"(August 3) Alibaba posted financial result in premarket, which showed that:\nAlibaba Q1 revenue RMB205.74 bln vs. RMB153.75 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB209.11 bln.\nAlibaba Q1 adj. EPS RMB16.60 vs. RMB14.82 a year ago; FactSet consensus RMB14.33.\nBUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS\nIn the quarter ended June 30, 2021:\n\nRevenue was RMB205,740 million (US$31,865 million), an increase of 34% year-over-year. Excluding the consolidation of Sun Art, our revenue would have grown 22% year-over-year to RMB187,306 million (US$29,010 million).\nAnnual active consumersof the Alibaba Ecosystem across the world reached approximately 1.18 billion for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, an increase of 45 million from the twelve months ended March 31, 2021. This includes 912 million consumers in China1and 265 million consumers overseas served by Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz.\nIncome from operations was RMB30,847 million (US$4,778 million), a decrease of 11% year-over-year.Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 5% year-over-year to RMB48,628 million (US$7,532 million).Adjusted EBITA, a non-GAAP measurement, decreased 8% year-over-year to RMB41,731 million (US$6,463 million). The year-over-year decreases were primarily due to our investments in strategic areas to capture incremental opportunities, such as Community Marketplaces, Taobao Deals, Local Consumer Services and Lazada, as well as our increased spending on growth initiatives within China retail marketplaces, such as Idle Fish and Taobao Live, and our support to merchants.\nNet income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB45,141 million (US$6,991 million),andnet incomewas RMB42,835 million (US$6,634 million).Non-GAAP net income was RMB43,441 million (US$6,728 million), an increase of 10% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in share of profit of equity method investees.\nDiluted earnings per ADS was RMB16.38 (US$2.54) anddiluted earnings per sharewas RMB2.05 (US$0.32 or HK$2.46).Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADSwas RMB16.60 (US$2.57), an increase of 12% year-over-year andnon-GAAP diluted earnings per sharewas RMB2.08 (US$0.32 or HK$2.50), an increase of 12% year-over-year.\nNet cashprovided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million).Non-GAAP free cash flowwas RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), a decrease compared to RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020, mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million fine levied earlier this year by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation pursuant to China’s Anti-monopoly Law (the “Anti-monopoly Fine”) and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas.\n\n\nChina Retail Marketplaces\nIn June 2021, Alibaba's China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million.\nCloud Computing\nIn the June 2021 quarter, our cloud computing revenue grew 29% year-over-year to RMB16,051 million (US$2,486 million), primarily driven by robust growth in revenue from customers in the Internet, financial services and retail industries.\nCash Flow from Operating Activities and Free Cash Flow\nIn the quarter ended June 30, 2021, net cash provided by operating activities was RMB33,603 million (US$5,204 million), a decrease compared to RMB50,099 million in the same quarter of 2020. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measurement of liquidity, decreased to RMB20,683 million (US$3,203 million), from RMB36,570 million in the same quarter of 2020. The year-over-year decreases were mainly due to the partial settlement in the amount of RMB9,114 million (US$1,412 million) of the RMB18,228 million Anti-monopoly Fine and a decrease in profit as a result of our investments in key strategic areas. A reconciliation of net cash provided by operating activities to free cash flow is included at the end of this results announcement.\nIncreasing Share Repurchases\nSince April 1, 2021 and through the publication of this results announcement, we repurchased approximately 18.1 million of our ADSs (the equivalent of approximately 144.5 million of our ordinary shares) for approximately US$3,680 million under our share repurchase program. In addition, on August 2, 2021, our board of directors authorized the Company to upsize our Company's share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion. This share repurchase program will be effective through the end of 2022.\n\nWe are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”\nIn June 2021, our China retail marketplaces had 939 million mobile MAUs, representing a quarterly net increase of 14 million. We continue to increase penetration in less-developed areas, reflecting our success in broadening product offerings to meet diverse consumer demand.\n“Alibaba started the new fiscal year by delivering a healthy quarter. For the June quarter, global annual active consumers across the Alibaba Ecosystem reached 1.18 billion, an increase of 45 million from the March quarter, which includes 912 million consumers in China. Over more than twenty years of growth, we have developed a company that spans across both consumer and industrial Internet, with multiple engines driving our long-term growth,” said Daniel Zhang, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Alibaba Group. “We believe in the growth of the Chinese economy and long-term value creation of Alibaba, and we will continue to strengthen our technology advantage in improving the consumer experience and helping our enterprise customers to accomplish successful digital transformations.”\n“We delivered strong revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. As we said in last quarter's results announcement, we are investing our excess profits and additional capital to support our merchants and invest in strategic areas to better serve customers and penetrate into new addressable markets,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group. “We are increasing our share repurchase program from US$10 billion to US$15 billion, the largest share repurchase program in the Company’s history, because we are confident of our long-term growth prospects. Our net cash position remains strong and we have repurchased approximately US$3.7 billion of our ADSs since April 1, 2021.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166432260,"gmtCreate":1624021894550,"gmtModify":1624021894550,"author":{"id":"3586515948790570","authorId":"3586515948790570","name":"JammyJammy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a489364a0ceb07e8294c389755b2d8","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586515948790570","authorIdStr":"3586515948790570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I wouldn't be surprised if the hedge funds are trading this both ways. Retail traders please be careful.","listText":"I wouldn't be surprised if the hedge funds are trading this both ways. Retail traders please be careful.","text":"I wouldn't be surprised if the hedge funds are trading this both ways. Retail traders please be careful.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166432260","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>\n <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>\n <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>\n <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p>\n<p><b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p>\n<p>Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p>\n<p>Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p>\n<p><b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p>\n<p>I start with the key assumptions:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p>\n<p><i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p>\n<p><b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p>\n<p><b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p>\n<p><b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p>\n<p><b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p>\n<p>We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>\n <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p>\n<p>We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p>\n<p><i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p>\n<p><b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p>\n<p>Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p>\n<p>Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p>\n<blockquote>\n “[\n <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Pretty clever, no? No:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Uh oh. What now?</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Ouch.</p>\n<p><b>Buyers beware</b></p>\n<p>As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p>\n<p>AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}