MrTig3r
2021-08-20
2300 buy!
Alphabet: Fundamentally Undervalued, But There Is Something More<blockquote>Alphabet：从根本上被低估，但还有更多</blockquote>
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However, maintaining the current rate of growth of the company's market capitalization looks doubtful. Moreover, the main reasons for these doubts do not relate directly to Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>在FAAMG名单中的公司中，Alphabet(GOOG)（GOOGL）的价格回报率为年初以来最高。然而，保持公司市值目前的增长率看起来令人怀疑。此外，这些疑虑的主要原因与Alphabet没有直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2bf5977f084e40231c372ea4e953f7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alphabet just growing or accelerating?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet只是在增长还是在加速？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet started publishing disaggregated revenue data relatively recently, but even that data is enough to see how rapidly growth in the key segments of the company's business has accelerated over the past three quarters:</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet最近才开始发布分类收入数据，但即使是这些数据也足以看出该公司业务关键领域在过去三个季度的增长速度有多快：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef18c5c0d152abd360d4e1e6a5f7d86\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1a4870a4261ce5e4ff958b006d6b05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d229d96e3f324a3dbdb1f72b52c1c5b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we talk about revenue in general, then there is now an exponential growth. Moreover, the result of the last quarter turned out to be above the long-term trend:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们从总体上谈论收入，那么现在是指数级增长。此外，上个季度的结果高于长期趋势：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2943b4f848efdba9f29e35d2f37a14d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Of course, this is a consequence of the increased interest in digital advertising during the phase of the end of the coronavirus pandemic. Basically, this was the</i> <i>expected</i> <i>effect.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>当然，这是冠状病毒疫情结束阶段对数字广告兴趣增加的结果。基本上，这是</i> <i>预期</i> <i>效果。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Cap vs Financial Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市值与财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> The most rough version of evaluating the current market price of a company is to analyze the mutual dynamics of changes in the size of capitalization and key operating indicators.</p><p><blockquote>评估公司当前市场价格的最粗略版本是分析资本化规模和关键运营指标变化的相互动态。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Alphabet's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue TTM absolute size. And this relationship indicates an overvalued state of the company even in the context of the expected results of the next three quarters:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，Alphabet的资本化与其收入TTM绝对规模呈定性线性关系。这种关系表明，即使在未来三个季度的预期业绩背景下，该公司的估值也被高估：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6147fa35fc829f5dcb156557895e67f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But in the case of EPS, Alphabet's current market cap is fairly balanced:</p><p><blockquote>但就每股收益而言，Alphabet目前的市值相当平衡：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3368b0fde66f762da5b38fb54e0eebce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The relationship between capitalization and free cash flow turns out to be of the highest quality. And this relationship also confirms the balanced state of the company's current price:</p><p><blockquote>资本化和自由现金流之间的关系被证明是最高质量的。而这种关系也印证了公司当前价格的均衡状态：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34dbd99f491ef12b268f9c0d597e2ced\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>So, at first glance, given the growth of EPS and free cash flow, the company does not look expensive now. And this is impressive.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，乍一看，考虑到每股收益和自由现金流的增长，该公司现在看起来并不昂贵。这令人印象深刻。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Comparative Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Comparative analysis of Alphabet's multiples did not give an unambiguous result. But it revealed one characteristic detail, which should be discussed.</p><p><blockquote>对Alphabet倍数的比较分析并没有给出明确的结果。但它揭示了一个特征细节，应该讨论一下。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Alphabet to a broad sample of tech companies through historical multiples, it can be concluded that the company is in balance with the market.</p><p><blockquote>通过历史市盈率将Alphabet与科技公司的广泛样本进行比较，可以得出结论，该公司与市场处于平衡状态。</blockquote></p><p> This is indicated by the EV/EBITDA multiple:</p><p><blockquote>这由EV/EBITDA倍数表示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1041e7dcef35b920b35acfbfd9f692c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df80b3691561bd0413d9fd70ba6ba2b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And the EV/FCF multiple:</p><p><blockquote>EV/FCF倍数：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6bfbb2e5f3b01ff92ccb097f52d3e1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe8094ed0774076017dc9c6311f91d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if we turn to the forward multiples,<i>they will not allow us to draw such a conclusion</i>. So, judging by the Forward P/S (next FY) multiple, Alphabet is overvalued by 25%:</p><p><blockquote>但如果我们转向前向倍数，<i>他们不允许我们得出这样的结论</i>因此，从远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数来看，Alphabet被高估了25%：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eecbffc5c6a6c5dd6a4c660076fcac73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9522696b884da86938cbd5552fcc5feb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we adjust this multiple for the expected growth rate, the result will not change much:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们针对预期增速调整这个倍数，结果变化不大：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe20a41142f56a3b67d470198521488a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb5901359f0343da4135b9e99782564\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Judging by the forward P/E (next FY) multiple, Alphabet is balanced:</p><p><blockquote>从远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数来看，Alphabet是平衡的：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8c203a8e7992753f480acea8dc104d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceb3882c35c854fe5209649a8e43ffb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, the growth-adjusted forward P/E multiple indicates overvaluation:</p><p><blockquote>但是，增长调整后的远期市盈率表明估值过高：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1456724d050ce5158dc999cf4712c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae370ac3d9070d29c50075d95845b3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>As you can see, if we compare Alphabet in the context of the current multiples, then the company is quite adequately assessed. But if you look at the forward multiples, and especially in the context of the expected growth rates of EPS and revenue, then the market is pulling Alphabet down.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如您所看到的，如果我们在当前市盈率的背景下比较Alphabet，那么该公司的评估就相当充分。但如果你看看远期市盈率，特别是在每股收益和收入预期增长率的背景下，那么市场正在拉低Alphabet。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Valuation (DCF model)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面估值（DCF模型）</b></blockquote></p><p> To forecast Alphabet's revenue for the next decade, I used the current averageestimatesof analysts. Importantly, sentiment about Alphabet's future growth has improved significantly this year:</p><p><blockquote>为了预测Alphabet未来十年的收入，我使用了分析师当前的平均估计。重要的是，今年对Alphabet未来增长的情绪明显改善：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d9fe4f01e79caf2ec0eb3ff42bcd62b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Operating margins have also jumped recently:</p><p><blockquote>营业利润率最近也大幅上升：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8265910d416d9c95f4544e6db5a18d55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But the model is based on the assumption that the operating margin over the next 10 years will gradually decline from 26% to 21% in the terminal year. This is the standard approach, assuming increased competition in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>但该模型基于以下假设：未来10年的营业利润率将在终端年从26%逐渐下降至21%。假设行业竞争加剧，这是标准方法。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eec731cefc1f1305b7f2a8ddd9863e6\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"385\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.25%).</li> <li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient. For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li> <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li> </ul> When building the model, I used the following key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.25%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>在构建模型时，我使用了以下关键假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The relative size of CAPEX will be at the average of the previous six years (14%).</li> <li>The averagetax ratewill amount to 26%.</li> </ul> And, here's the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>资本支出的相对规模将处于前六年的平均水平（14%）。</li><li>平均税率将达到26%。</li></ul>下面是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39411acd119f583bda3362999499f95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(high resolution)Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（高分辨率）来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>The DCF-based target price of Alphabet's shares is $4,430, offering ~62% upside. But, if we moderate the forecast for the operating margin and suppose that UST10 rises to 2%, then the growth potential drops to approximately 30%. This, however, is also a positive result.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Alphabet股票基于DCF的目标价为4,430美元，上涨空间约为62%。但是，如果我们调整营业利润率的预测并假设UST10升至2%，那么增长潜力将降至约30%。然而，这也是一个积极的结果。</i></blockquote></p><p> Technical picture</p><p><blockquote>技术图片</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most stocks and indices follow their exponential trend, which tends to be well-identified on the graph with log y-axis. Let's take a look at Alphabet this way:</p><p><blockquote>大多数股票和指数遵循其指数趋势，这往往在具有对数y轴的图表上可以很好地识别。让我们这样来看看Alphabet：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec0b304aec5fd73b20552517ddf8d54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starting from 2010, Alphabet's stock price had been following its long-term exponential trend. But now the company's stock price is above this trend by two standard deviations.<i>It means that Alphabet's stock price is growing at a faster than exponential rate. Generally speaking, it indicates an unstable state.</i></p><p><blockquote>从2010年开始，Alphabet的股价一直遵循其长期指数趋势。但现在公司股价比这一趋势高出两个标准差。<i>这意味着Alphabet的股价正在以超过指数的速度增长。一般来说，它表示一种不稳定的状态。</i></blockquote></p><p> But, sometimes this is a signal that the price intends to grow in this way and further. A prime example is Microsoft (MSFT), which overtook its long-term exponential trend last year:</p><p><blockquote>但是，有时这是一个信号，表明价格打算以这种方式进一步增长。一个典型的例子是微软（MSFT），它去年超越了其长期指数趋势：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc09617c1d8eb3259b2f778c531b1cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dynamics of risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险动态</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks that will be discussed in this block do not relate to the company itself, but to the market as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>本节将讨论的风险与公司本身无关，而是与整个市场有关。</blockquote></p><p> The capitalization of Alphabet now accounts for about 4.3% of the capitalization of the entire US stock market. At the beginning of the year, this figure barely exceeded 3%:</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的市值现在约占整个美国股市市值的4.3%。年初，这一数字勉强超过3%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9303db3db81e41dd706bdfd5e999185e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Only Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft have comparable shares...</p><p><blockquote>只有苹果（AAPL）和微软拥有可比股票……</blockquote></p><p> Further, over the past 14 years, the value of the Nasdaq index as a percentage of the S&P 500 index has grown from 175% to 330%. Moreover, the dynamics of the last few quarters suggest that this trend has reached a certain ceiling:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在过去14年中，纳斯达克指数占标普500指数的百分比从175%增长到330%。此外，过去几个季度的动态表明，这种趋势已经达到了一定的上限：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264902a1ecd03164d6b1d969f99f8543\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, microcycles allow us to expect that the market is entering a phase of increased volatility and tighter monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微周期让我们预计市场正在进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d33e233159547a9eda0b4d79ebb8db81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level relative to GDP:</p><p><blockquote>而正是超软货币政策让美国股市相对于GDP达到了目前的创纪录水平：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae2307c42c76775fc9ae39cf8d6cb14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: cmegroup.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：cmegroup.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>In short, the current state of the market in many aspects has reached extreme points and this is a cause for concern.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简而言之，市场目前在许多方面的状态已经达到了极端点，这是一个令人担忧的原因。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the results that Alphabet has shown in the last two quarters, the company's current price is not surprising.</p><p><blockquote>从Alphabet最近两个季度展示的业绩来看，该公司目前的价格并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> But the continuation of this growth at the same rates does not seem so obvious anymore. Especially with an eye to the general market situation and the expectation of a tightening of monetary policy in the US. On the whole, a neutral rating suggests itself.</p><p><blockquote>但以同样的速度继续增长似乎不再那么明显了。尤其是着眼于整体市场形势和美国收紧货币政策的预期。总体而言，中性评级不言而喻。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alphabet: Fundamentally Undervalued, But There Is Something More<blockquote>Alphabet：从根本上被低估，但还有更多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet: Fundamentally Undervalued, But There Is Something More<blockquote>Alphabet：从根本上被低估，但还有更多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 10:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Given the growth of EPS and free cash flow, Alphabet does not look expensive now.</li> <li>Looking at the forward multiples, especially in the context of expected EPS and revenue growth, the market is pulling Alphabet down.</li> <li>The company is still undervalued in the context of the present value of the potential future FCF volume.</li> <li>The current state of the market in many aspects has reached extreme points and this is a cause for concern.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76349c9ab8f3f6331a583172e492e24c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>400tmax/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于每股收益和自由现金流的增长，Alphabet现在看起来并不昂贵。</li><li>从远期市盈率来看，特别是在预期每股收益和收入增长的背景下，市场正在拉低Alphabet。</li><li>就未来潜在自由现金流量的现值而言，该公司的估值仍然被低估。</li><li>市场在许多方面的现状已经达到了极端，这是一个令人担忧的原因。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>400tmax/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Among the companies from the FAAMG list, Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) has shown the highest price return since the beginning of the year. However, maintaining the current rate of growth of the company's market capitalization looks doubtful. Moreover, the main reasons for these doubts do not relate directly to Alphabet.</p><p><blockquote>在FAAMG名单中的公司中，Alphabet(GOOG)（GOOGL）的价格回报率为年初以来最高。然而，保持公司市值目前的增长率看起来令人怀疑。此外，这些疑虑的主要原因与Alphabet没有直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2bf5977f084e40231c372ea4e953f7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alphabet just growing or accelerating?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Alphabet只是在增长还是在加速？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alphabet started publishing disaggregated revenue data relatively recently, but even that data is enough to see how rapidly growth in the key segments of the company's business has accelerated over the past three quarters:</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet最近才开始发布分类收入数据，但即使是这些数据也足以看出该公司业务关键领域在过去三个季度的增长速度有多快：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef18c5c0d152abd360d4e1e6a5f7d86\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1a4870a4261ce5e4ff958b006d6b05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d229d96e3f324a3dbdb1f72b52c1c5b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we talk about revenue in general, then there is now an exponential growth. Moreover, the result of the last quarter turned out to be above the long-term trend:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们从总体上谈论收入，那么现在是指数级增长。此外，上个季度的结果高于长期趋势：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2943b4f848efdba9f29e35d2f37a14d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>Of course, this is a consequence of the increased interest in digital advertising during the phase of the end of the coronavirus pandemic. Basically, this was the</i> <i>expected</i> <i>effect.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>当然，这是冠状病毒疫情结束阶段对数字广告兴趣增加的结果。基本上，这是</i> <i>预期</i> <i>效果。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Cap vs Financial Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市值与财务业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> The most rough version of evaluating the current market price of a company is to analyze the mutual dynamics of changes in the size of capitalization and key operating indicators.</p><p><blockquote>评估公司当前市场价格的最粗略版本是分析资本化规模和关键运营指标变化的相互动态。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Alphabet's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue TTM absolute size. And this relationship indicates an overvalued state of the company even in the context of the expected results of the next three quarters:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，Alphabet的资本化与其收入TTM绝对规模呈定性线性关系。这种关系表明，即使在未来三个季度的预期业绩背景下，该公司的估值也被高估：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6147fa35fc829f5dcb156557895e67f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But in the case of EPS, Alphabet's current market cap is fairly balanced:</p><p><blockquote>但就每股收益而言，Alphabet目前的市值相当平衡：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3368b0fde66f762da5b38fb54e0eebce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The relationship between capitalization and free cash flow turns out to be of the highest quality. And this relationship also confirms the balanced state of the company's current price:</p><p><blockquote>资本化和自由现金流之间的关系被证明是最高质量的。而这种关系也印证了公司当前价格的均衡状态：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34dbd99f491ef12b268f9c0d597e2ced\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>So, at first glance, given the growth of EPS and free cash flow, the company does not look expensive now. And this is impressive.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，乍一看，考虑到每股收益和自由现金流的增长，该公司现在看起来并不昂贵。这令人印象深刻。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Comparative Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Comparative analysis of Alphabet's multiples did not give an unambiguous result. But it revealed one characteristic detail, which should be discussed.</p><p><blockquote>对Alphabet倍数的比较分析并没有给出明确的结果。但它揭示了一个特征细节，应该讨论一下。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Alphabet to a broad sample of tech companies through historical multiples, it can be concluded that the company is in balance with the market.</p><p><blockquote>通过历史市盈率将Alphabet与科技公司的广泛样本进行比较，可以得出结论，该公司与市场处于平衡状态。</blockquote></p><p> This is indicated by the EV/EBITDA multiple:</p><p><blockquote>这由EV/EBITDA倍数表示：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1041e7dcef35b920b35acfbfd9f692c4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df80b3691561bd0413d9fd70ba6ba2b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And the EV/FCF multiple:</p><p><blockquote>EV/FCF倍数：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6bfbb2e5f3b01ff92ccb097f52d3e1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe8094ed0774076017dc9c6311f91d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if we turn to the forward multiples,<i>they will not allow us to draw such a conclusion</i>. So, judging by the Forward P/S (next FY) multiple, Alphabet is overvalued by 25%:</p><p><blockquote>但如果我们转向前向倍数，<i>他们不允许我们得出这样的结论</i>因此，从远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数来看，Alphabet被高估了25%：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eecbffc5c6a6c5dd6a4c660076fcac73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9522696b884da86938cbd5552fcc5feb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If we adjust this multiple for the expected growth rate, the result will not change much:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们针对预期增速调整这个倍数，结果变化不大：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe20a41142f56a3b67d470198521488a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb5901359f0343da4135b9e99782564\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Judging by the forward P/E (next FY) multiple, Alphabet is balanced:</p><p><blockquote>从远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数来看，Alphabet是平衡的：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8c203a8e7992753f480acea8dc104d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceb3882c35c854fe5209649a8e43ffb9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, the growth-adjusted forward P/E multiple indicates overvaluation:</p><p><blockquote>但是，增长调整后的远期市盈率表明估值过高：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1456724d050ce5158dc999cf4712c6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae370ac3d9070d29c50075d95845b3a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>As you can see, if we compare Alphabet in the context of the current multiples, then the company is quite adequately assessed. But if you look at the forward multiples, and especially in the context of the expected growth rates of EPS and revenue, then the market is pulling Alphabet down.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>正如您所看到的，如果我们在当前市盈率的背景下比较Alphabet，那么该公司的评估就相当充分。但如果你看看远期市盈率，特别是在每股收益和收入预期增长率的背景下，那么市场正在拉低Alphabet。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Valuation (DCF model)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面估值（DCF模型）</b></blockquote></p><p> To forecast Alphabet's revenue for the next decade, I used the current averageestimatesof analysts. Importantly, sentiment about Alphabet's future growth has improved significantly this year:</p><p><blockquote>为了预测Alphabet未来十年的收入，我使用了分析师当前的平均估计。重要的是，今年对Alphabet未来增长的情绪明显改善：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d9fe4f01e79caf2ec0eb3ff42bcd62b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha Pro</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求Alpha Pro</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Operating margins have also jumped recently:</p><p><blockquote>营业利润率最近也大幅上升：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8265910d416d9c95f4544e6db5a18d55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But the model is based on the assumption that the operating margin over the next 10 years will gradually decline from 26% to 21% in the terminal year. This is the standard approach, assuming increased competition in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>但该模型基于以下假设：未来10年的营业利润率将在终端年从26%逐渐下降至21%。假设行业竞争加剧，这是标准方法。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eec731cefc1f1305b7f2a8ddd9863e6\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"385\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some explanations:</p><p><blockquote>一些解释：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.25%).</li> <li>I used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient. For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li> <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li> </ul> When building the model, I used the following key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.25%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2019年和2020年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>在构建模型时，我使用了以下关键假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The relative size of CAPEX will be at the average of the previous six years (14%).</li> <li>The averagetax ratewill amount to 26%.</li> </ul> And, here's the model itself:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>资本支出的相对规模将处于前六年的平均水平（14%）。</li><li>平均税率将达到26%。</li></ul>下面是模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39411acd119f583bda3362999499f95\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(high resolution)Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（高分辨率）来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>The DCF-based target price of Alphabet's shares is $4,430, offering ~62% upside. But, if we moderate the forecast for the operating margin and suppose that UST10 rises to 2%, then the growth potential drops to approximately 30%. This, however, is also a positive result.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Alphabet股票基于DCF的目标价为4,430美元，上涨空间约为62%。但是，如果我们调整营业利润率的预测并假设UST10升至2%，那么增长潜力将降至约30%。然而，这也是一个积极的结果。</i></blockquote></p><p> Technical picture</p><p><blockquote>技术图片</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most stocks and indices follow their exponential trend, which tends to be well-identified on the graph with log y-axis. Let's take a look at Alphabet this way:</p><p><blockquote>大多数股票和指数遵循其指数趋势，这往往在具有对数y轴的图表上可以很好地识别。让我们这样来看看Alphabet：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec0b304aec5fd73b20552517ddf8d54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starting from 2010, Alphabet's stock price had been following its long-term exponential trend. But now the company's stock price is above this trend by two standard deviations.<i>It means that Alphabet's stock price is growing at a faster than exponential rate. Generally speaking, it indicates an unstable state.</i></p><p><blockquote>从2010年开始，Alphabet的股价一直遵循其长期指数趋势。但现在公司股价比这一趋势高出两个标准差。<i>这意味着Alphabet的股价正在以超过指数的速度增长。一般来说，它表示一种不稳定的状态。</i></blockquote></p><p> But, sometimes this is a signal that the price intends to grow in this way and further. A prime example is Microsoft (MSFT), which overtook its long-term exponential trend last year:</p><p><blockquote>但是，有时这是一个信号，表明价格打算以这种方式进一步增长。一个典型的例子是微软（MSFT），它去年超越了其长期指数趋势：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acc09617c1d8eb3259b2f778c531b1cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dynamics of risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险动态</b></blockquote></p><p> The risks that will be discussed in this block do not relate to the company itself, but to the market as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>本节将讨论的风险与公司本身无关，而是与整个市场有关。</blockquote></p><p> The capitalization of Alphabet now accounts for about 4.3% of the capitalization of the entire US stock market. At the beginning of the year, this figure barely exceeded 3%:</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的市值现在约占整个美国股市市值的4.3%。年初，这一数字勉强超过3%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9303db3db81e41dd706bdfd5e999185e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Only Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft have comparable shares...</p><p><blockquote>只有苹果（AAPL）和微软拥有可比股票……</blockquote></p><p> Further, over the past 14 years, the value of the Nasdaq index as a percentage of the S&P 500 index has grown from 175% to 330%. Moreover, the dynamics of the last few quarters suggest that this trend has reached a certain ceiling:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在过去14年中，纳斯达克指数占标普500指数的百分比从175%增长到330%。此外，过去几个季度的动态表明，这种趋势已经达到了一定的上限：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264902a1ecd03164d6b1d969f99f8543\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, microcycles allow us to expect that the market is entering a phase of increased volatility and tighter monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微周期让我们预计市场正在进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d33e233159547a9eda0b4d79ebb8db81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level relative to GDP:</p><p><blockquote>而正是超软货币政策让美国股市相对于GDP达到了目前的创纪录水平：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae2307c42c76775fc9ae39cf8d6cb14\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: cmegroup.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：cmegroup.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>In short, the current state of the market in many aspects has reached extreme points and this is a cause for concern.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简而言之，市场目前在许多方面的状态已经达到了极端点，这是一个令人担忧的原因。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the results that Alphabet has shown in the last two quarters, the company's current price is not surprising.</p><p><blockquote>从Alphabet最近两个季度展示的业绩来看，该公司目前的价格并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> But the continuation of this growth at the same rates does not seem so obvious anymore. Especially with an eye to the general market situation and the expectation of a tightening of monetary policy in the US. On the whole, a neutral rating suggests itself.</p><p><blockquote>但以同样的速度继续增长似乎不再那么明显了。尤其是着眼于整体市场形势和美国收紧货币政策的预期。总体而言，中性评级不言而喻。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450520-alphabet-fundamentally-undervalued-but-there-is-something-more\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450520-alphabet-fundamentally-undervalued-but-there-is-something-more","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160234318","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the growth of EPS and free cash flow, Alphabet does not look expensive now.\nLooking at the forward multiples, especially in the context of expected EPS and revenue growth, the market is pulling Alphabet down.\nThe company is still undervalued in the context of the present value of the potential future FCF volume.\nThe current state of the market in many aspects has reached extreme points and this is a cause for concern.\n\n400tmax/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThesis\nAmong the companies from the FAAMG list, Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) has shown the highest price return since the beginning of the year. However, maintaining the current rate of growth of the company's market capitalization looks doubtful. Moreover, the main reasons for these doubts do not relate directly to Alphabet.\nData byYCharts\nIs Alphabet just growing or accelerating?\nAlphabet started publishing disaggregated revenue data relatively recently, but even that data is enough to see how rapidly growth in the key segments of the company's business has accelerated over the past three quarters:\n\n\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIf we talk about revenue in general, then there is now an exponential growth. Moreover, the result of the last quarter turned out to be above the long-term trend:\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nOf course, this is a consequence of the increased interest in digital advertising during the phase of the end of the coronavirus pandemic. Basically, this was the expected effect.\nMarket Cap vs Financial Results\nThe most rough version of evaluating the current market price of a company is to analyze the mutual dynamics of changes in the size of capitalization and key operating indicators.\nOver the last decade, Alphabet's capitalization has been in a qualitative linear relationship with its revenue TTM absolute size. And this relationship indicates an overvalued state of the company even in the context of the expected results of the next three quarters:\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nBut in the case of EPS, Alphabet's current market cap is fairly balanced:\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nThe relationship between capitalization and free cash flow turns out to be of the highest quality. And this relationship also confirms the balanced state of the company's current price:\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nSo, at first glance, given the growth of EPS and free cash flow, the company does not look expensive now. And this is impressive.\nComparative Valuation\nComparative analysis of Alphabet's multiples did not give an unambiguous result. But it revealed one characteristic detail, which should be discussed.\nComparing Alphabet to a broad sample of tech companies through historical multiples, it can be concluded that the company is in balance with the market.\nThis is indicated by the EV/EBITDA multiple:\n\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAnd the EV/FCF multiple:\n\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nBut if we turn to the forward multiples,they will not allow us to draw such a conclusion. So, judging by the Forward P/S (next FY) multiple, Alphabet is overvalued by 25%:\n\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIf we adjust this multiple for the expected growth rate, the result will not change much:\n\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nJudging by the forward P/E (next FY) multiple, Alphabet is balanced:\n\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nBut, the growth-adjusted forward P/E multiple indicates overvaluation:\n\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAs you can see, if we compare Alphabet in the context of the current multiples, then the company is quite adequately assessed. But if you look at the forward multiples, and especially in the context of the expected growth rates of EPS and revenue, then the market is pulling Alphabet down.\nFundamental Valuation (DCF model)\nTo forecast Alphabet's revenue for the next decade, I used the current averageestimatesof analysts. Importantly, sentiment about Alphabet's future growth has improved significantly this year:\nSource: Seeking Alpha Pro\nOperating margins have also jumped recently:\nData byYCharts\nBut the model is based on the assumption that the operating margin over the next 10 years will gradually decline from 26% to 21% in the terminal year. This is the standard approach, assuming increased competition in the industry.\nHere is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nSome explanations:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.25%).\nI used the currentvalueof the three-year beta coefficient. For the terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2019 and 2020 divided by the debt value for the same years.\n\nWhen building the model, I used the following key assumptions:\n\nThe relative size of CAPEX will be at the average of the previous six years (14%).\nThe averagetax ratewill amount to 26%.\n\nAnd, here's the model itself:\n(high resolution)Source: Author\nThe DCF-based target price of Alphabet's shares is $4,430, offering ~62% upside. But, if we moderate the forecast for the operating margin and suppose that UST10 rises to 2%, then the growth potential drops to approximately 30%. This, however, is also a positive result.\nTechnical picture\nMost stocks and indices follow their exponential trend, which tends to be well-identified on the graph with log y-axis. Let's take a look at Alphabet this way:\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nStarting from 2010, Alphabet's stock price had been following its long-term exponential trend. But now the company's stock price is above this trend by two standard deviations.It means that Alphabet's stock price is growing at a faster than exponential rate. Generally speaking, it indicates an unstable state.\nBut, sometimes this is a signal that the price intends to grow in this way and further. A prime example is Microsoft (MSFT), which overtook its long-term exponential trend last year:\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nDynamics of risks\nThe risks that will be discussed in this block do not relate to the company itself, but to the market as a whole.\nThe capitalization of Alphabet now accounts for about 4.3% of the capitalization of the entire US stock market. At the beginning of the year, this figure barely exceeded 3%:\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\n\nOnly Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft have comparable shares...\nFurther, over the past 14 years, the value of the Nasdaq index as a percentage of the S&P 500 index has grown from 175% to 330%. Moreover, the dynamics of the last few quarters suggest that this trend has reached a certain ceiling:\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\n\nAt the same time, microcycles allow us to expect that the market is entering a phase of increased volatility and tighter monetary policy:\nSource:VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAnd it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level relative to GDP:\nSource: cmegroup.com\nIn short, the current state of the market in many aspects has reached extreme points and this is a cause for concern.\nBottom line\nLooking at the results that Alphabet has shown in the last two quarters, the company's current price is not surprising.\nBut the continuation of this growth at the same rates does not seem so obvious anymore. Especially with an eye to the general market situation and the expectation of a tightening of monetary policy in the US. On the whole, a neutral rating suggests itself.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/838798673"}
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