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EthanShawn

EthanShawn

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2021-03-05

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$看看会不会卖飞

2021-05-17

$Apple(AAPL)$nice

2021-05-11

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$人没了 ...

2021-04-08

$Apple(AAPL)$nice cake

2021-02-07

No Worries

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2021-02-02

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$刚刚成为小小新股东

2021-06-19

Sharing

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2021-06-14

Sharing is caring

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2021-06-02

All in if drop to $90

Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear

2021-04-29

好文分享，点个赞呗

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2021-04-09

$Apple(AAPL)$slow and steady

2021-03-23

For sharing

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2021-06-12

你该如何选择？

Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited

2021-06-03

Crazy

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2021-05-21

Like and comment pls

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2021-04-26

$Visa(V)$不怕慢，只怕站

2021-03-09

Wait and see

Apple stock sank more than 2%

2021-02-18

No one can stop bitcoin now..

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2021-06-20

Nice article

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2021-05-06

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$呕了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":164445646,"gmtCreate":1624234782185,"gmtModify":1631892912493,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing","listText":"Sharing","text":"Sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164445646","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165595848,"gmtCreate":1624150477984,"gmtModify":1631892912496,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice article","listText":"Nice article","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165595848","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162817317,"gmtCreate":1624056363539,"gmtModify":1631892912499,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing","listText":"Sharing","text":"Sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162817317","repostId":"1111305468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168682260,"gmtCreate":1623974051750,"gmtModify":1631892912499,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing is caring","listText":"Sharing is caring","text":"Sharing is caring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168682260","repostId":"2143979397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163626080,"gmtCreate":1623883904040,"gmtModify":1631892912510,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"重点来了","listText":"重点来了","text":"重点来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163626080","repostId":"1170150919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170150919","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170150919?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170150919","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and finan","content":"<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&amp;P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p>\n<p>Nine out of 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p>\n<p>Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p>\n<p>The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p>\n<p>The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p>\n<p>Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p>\n<p>The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p>\n<p>The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>\"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p>\n<p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p>\n<p>\"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p>\n<p>On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&amp;P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p>\n<p>Nine out of 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p>\n<p>Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p>\n<p>The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p>\n<p>The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p>\n<p>Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p>\n<p>The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p>\n<p>The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p>\n<p>\"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p>\n<p>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p>\n<p>\"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p>\n<p>On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170150919","content_text":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.\nU.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.\nNine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.\nEconomic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.\nThe policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.\nThe Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"\nChairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.\nThe meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.\nThe central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.\n\"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"\nTreasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.\n\"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"\nOn Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160714439,"gmtCreate":1623806517021,"gmtModify":1631892912507,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing","listText":"Sharing","text":"Sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160714439","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160866392,"gmtCreate":1623781089616,"gmtModify":1631892912513,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文分享","listText":"好文分享","text":"好文分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160866392","repostId":"2143178756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160869400,"gmtCreate":1623780812000,"gmtModify":1634028308702,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看看你会做什么决定？","listText":"看看你会做什么决定？","text":"看看你会做什么决定？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160869400","repostId":"2142788371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142788371","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623627985,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142788371?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142788371","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"All eyes on the Fed!\n\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GET","content":"<p>All eyes on the Fed!</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c83a98ead1e0406f6e21bde6e1f550\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"><span>\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES, EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p>\n<p>You couldn’t fault Wall Street for envisaging a bit of Hamlet in Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June policy meeting this coming week:</p>\n<p>Transitory, or not transitory?</p>\n<p>Therein lies the question that the interest rate-setting Fed committee needs to answer for financial markets on Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC’s two-day gathering.</p>\n<p>Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous inflation or to take arms against a sea of troubles, as Hamlet might have said if he had been a central bank governor.</p>\n<p>Of course, no one is expecting fireworks at this coming meeting but it could still proof a pivotal point for stocks and bonds.</p>\n<p>That is especially true with the S&amp;P 500 index,the Dow Jones Industrial Average,and the Nasdaq Composite Index,hovering at, or near, record closing highs.</p>\n<p>The Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of growing evidence of pricing pressures building in the economy as it recovers from the COVID pandemic of the past year and vaccination rollouts allow businesses to return to some semblance of normality.</p>\n<p>Last Thursday’s&nbsp;consumer-price index report&nbsp;from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the cost of living surged in May and drove the&nbsp;pace of inflation&nbsp;to a 13-year high of 5%, reflecting a broad increase in prices confronting Americans.</p>\n<p>“The critical question now is whether this elevated rate of inflation is ‘transitory’ or whether higher prices risk becoming psychologically entrenched,” wrote Matt Weller, global head of market research at Forex.com in a Friday research note.</p>\n<p>The fixed-income market may already have had its say on inflation, with the yields on the 10-year Treasury note&nbsp;and the 30-year Treasury bond&nbsp;hanging around their lowest levels since at least early March.</p>\n<p>Treasury and stock-market investors are viewing the surge in inflation as fostered by supply chain distortions as consumers splurge after the pandemic, along with statistical base effects as last year’s falling prices drop out of the annual calculations, and therefore likely to be fleeting.</p>\n<p>Is isn’t clear exactly however what transitory means — months, years ? How long are elevated levels of inflation to be tolerated before market participants and the Fed lose patience with inflation that undermines asset prices?</p>\n<p>“Going forward to the end of 2021 and into 2022, policy makers continue to expect inflation to subside back down nearer their 2% objective, is a message the Committee is likely to reiterate at next week’s meeting,” wrote Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel in a Friday note.</p>\n<p>“That being said, the U.S. economy is clearly gaining momentum, with the labor market adding more than 500,000 jobs a month. Therefore, while no policy adjustment is expected in June, nor an announcement of a timeline for an eventual adjustment to policy, at least some Fed members are expected to push for a discussion in the coming months regarding an eventual rollback of emergency measures,” she said.</p>\n<p>Some traders, analysts and economists are betting the Fed will aim to articulate the view that the tapering of its $120 billion a month purchase of assets, implemented during the worst of the pandemic, will begin by towards the end of 2021.</p>\n<p>The Fed may talk about talking about tapering in June and by August or September begin the work toward a roll back.</p>\n<p>In the face of rising inflation, the timing of any tapering looks tricky for the U.S. central bank since the recovery in the labor market still looks shaky, relative to the the demand for workers, and is reflected in the&nbsp;weaker-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report&nbsp;and the job openings data from last week&nbsp;which hit a record 9.3 million.</p>\n<p>Lawrence Gillum, fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial, said that the key thing the market wants to here is the timing of the Fed’s tapering. He also noted the tapering of the central bank’s $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities in particular will be important because the housing market is widely viewed as overheated.</p>\n<p>“The main thing we’d like to hear next week is how and when the Fed plans to reduce its bond purchase programs,” Gillum said.</p>\n<p>“Additionally, why the Fed continues to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities every month when the housing market, by all accounts, doesn’t need that support. Will we get that clarity? Probably not,” he offered.</p>\n<p>Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday report, said that in that context, he still expects policy makers to convey a go-slow approach to any scaling back of monetary accommodation.</p>\n<p>“While we suspect that Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s&nbsp;FOMC meeting, they are likely to emphasize that the economy is still some way from making ‘substantial further progress’ towards their goals,” he said.</p>\n<p>Indeed, Peter Essele, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network&nbsp;said the market may need to hear more dovishness from Fed officials, even as they circumnavigate the notion of scaling back easy-money policies.</p>\n<p>“Market participants are clearly expecting a dovish tone from the Fed next week, as evidenced by the recent path of interest rates,” Essele told MarketWatch in emailed comments.</p>\n<p>“We expect the Fed will keep its foot on the accommodative pedal next week, which won’t change until inflation is no longer transitory and the economy is back to full employment,” Essele said.</p>\n<p>“Until then, Treasury rates should remain range-bound on the long end and anchored on the short end, offering bond investors little to worry about in the near term,” he said.</p>\n<p><b>What else is on investors’ radar?</b></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the only other main item on the docket for next week is U.S. May retail sales on Tuesday, while investors continue to watch negotiations between the Biden administration and Republicans on an infrastructure spending plan, given it has implications for economic growth and debt issuance.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-market-wants-and-doesnt-want-to-hear-from-powell-at-next-weeks-fed-meeting-11623452360?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>All eyes on the Fed!\n\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES, EVERETT COLLECTION\nYou couldn’t fault Wall Street for envisaging a bit of Hamlet in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-market-wants-and-doesnt-want-to-hear-from-powell-at-next-weeks-fed-meeting-11623452360?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-market-wants-and-doesnt-want-to-hear-from-powell-at-next-weeks-fed-meeting-11623452360?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142788371","content_text":"All eyes on the Fed!\n\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES, EVERETT COLLECTION\nYou couldn’t fault Wall Street for envisaging a bit of Hamlet in Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June policy meeting this coming week:\nTransitory, or not transitory?\nTherein lies the question that the interest rate-setting Fed committee needs to answer for financial markets on Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC’s two-day gathering.\nWhether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous inflation or to take arms against a sea of troubles, as Hamlet might have said if he had been a central bank governor.\nOf course, no one is expecting fireworks at this coming meeting but it could still proof a pivotal point for stocks and bonds.\nThat is especially true with the S&P 500 index,the Dow Jones Industrial Average,and the Nasdaq Composite Index,hovering at, or near, record closing highs.\nThe Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of growing evidence of pricing pressures building in the economy as it recovers from the COVID pandemic of the past year and vaccination rollouts allow businesses to return to some semblance of normality.\nLast Thursday’s consumer-price index report from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%, reflecting a broad increase in prices confronting Americans.\n“The critical question now is whether this elevated rate of inflation is ‘transitory’ or whether higher prices risk becoming psychologically entrenched,” wrote Matt Weller, global head of market research at Forex.com in a Friday research note.\nThe fixed-income market may already have had its say on inflation, with the yields on the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond hanging around their lowest levels since at least early March.\nTreasury and stock-market investors are viewing the surge in inflation as fostered by supply chain distortions as consumers splurge after the pandemic, along with statistical base effects as last year’s falling prices drop out of the annual calculations, and therefore likely to be fleeting.\nIs isn’t clear exactly however what transitory means — months, years ? How long are elevated levels of inflation to be tolerated before market participants and the Fed lose patience with inflation that undermines asset prices?\n“Going forward to the end of 2021 and into 2022, policy makers continue to expect inflation to subside back down nearer their 2% objective, is a message the Committee is likely to reiterate at next week’s meeting,” wrote Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel in a Friday note.\n“That being said, the U.S. economy is clearly gaining momentum, with the labor market adding more than 500,000 jobs a month. Therefore, while no policy adjustment is expected in June, nor an announcement of a timeline for an eventual adjustment to policy, at least some Fed members are expected to push for a discussion in the coming months regarding an eventual rollback of emergency measures,” she said.\nSome traders, analysts and economists are betting the Fed will aim to articulate the view that the tapering of its $120 billion a month purchase of assets, implemented during the worst of the pandemic, will begin by towards the end of 2021.\nThe Fed may talk about talking about tapering in June and by August or September begin the work toward a roll back.\nIn the face of rising inflation, the timing of any tapering looks tricky for the U.S. central bank since the recovery in the labor market still looks shaky, relative to the the demand for workers, and is reflected in the weaker-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report and the job openings data from last week which hit a record 9.3 million.\nLawrence Gillum, fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial, said that the key thing the market wants to here is the timing of the Fed’s tapering. He also noted the tapering of the central bank’s $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities in particular will be important because the housing market is widely viewed as overheated.\n“The main thing we’d like to hear next week is how and when the Fed plans to reduce its bond purchase programs,” Gillum said.\n“Additionally, why the Fed continues to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities every month when the housing market, by all accounts, doesn’t need that support. Will we get that clarity? Probably not,” he offered.\nAndrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday report, said that in that context, he still expects policy makers to convey a go-slow approach to any scaling back of monetary accommodation.\n“While we suspect that Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting, they are likely to emphasize that the economy is still some way from making ‘substantial further progress’ towards their goals,” he said.\nIndeed, Peter Essele, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network said the market may need to hear more dovishness from Fed officials, even as they circumnavigate the notion of scaling back easy-money policies.\n“Market participants are clearly expecting a dovish tone from the Fed next week, as evidenced by the recent path of interest rates,” Essele told MarketWatch in emailed comments.\n“We expect the Fed will keep its foot on the accommodative pedal next week, which won’t change until inflation is no longer transitory and the economy is back to full employment,” Essele said.\n“Until then, Treasury rates should remain range-bound on the long end and anchored on the short end, offering bond investors little to worry about in the near term,” he said.\nWhat else is on investors’ radar?\nMeanwhile, the only other main item on the docket for next week is U.S. May retail sales on Tuesday, while investors continue to watch negotiations between the Biden administration and Republicans on an infrastructure spending plan, given it has implications for economic growth and debt issuance.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160887717,"gmtCreate":1623780653339,"gmtModify":1634028310298,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文分享","listText":"好文分享","text":"好文分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160887717","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150591447","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623769391,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150591447?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150591447","media":"CNBC","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put ","content":"<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's a complete trader playbook for every outcome from the key Fed meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/heres-a-complete-trader-playbook-for-every-outcome-from-the-key-fed-meeting.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1150591447","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s all-important policy meeting this week is going to affect where investors put their money to work going forward.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee,which will conclude its two-day meeting Wednesday, could start preliminary discussions about scaling back the unprecedented bond-buying programs that aided the economy during the pandemic. Some market participants believe it’s still too soon for the central bank to signal such a tapering action, while others think the Fed will be able to find a happy medium that won’t upset the markets.\nEach scenario has different investing implications as they are expected to make big moves across asset classes.\nHere’s a playbook for traders on every scenario from the central bank’s key meeting.\nIf the Fed signals it’s staying with easy policies\nThe Fed could reiterate its transitory stance on inflation, ignoring the pick-up in price pressures reflected in recent economic data. If the central bank says its not time to remove accommodative policies and it’s not concerned about inflation, investors should stick with hedges against rising prices like commodities and stocks with high pricing power, investment banks found.\nBank of America screened S&P 500 companies that its analysts believe have the most pricing power and ability to expand margins at times of rising prices. The stocks include a few chipmakers —Nvidia,Texas InstrumentsandBroadcom— as well as consumer plays likeHome Depot,NikeandPepsiCo.Energy dividend payerExxon Mobilis also on the list.\nUBS also developed a framework for scoring corporate pricing agility, which considers pricing power, margin momentum and input cost exposure. For pricing power, UBS quantified the extent to which a company can raise prices over and above costs. For margin momentum, UBS tracked corporate pricing trends using its proprietary pricing mapping.\nFor input cost exposure, UBS searched for companies with negative sentiment around commodity and transport costs on earnings calls.\n\nBillionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said earlier this week that investors should “go all in on the inflation trades” if the Fed keeps ignoring higher prices.\n“If they treat these numbers — which were material events, they were very material —if they treat them with nonchalance, I think it’s just a green light to bet heavily on every inflation trade,” Tudor Jones said on “Squawk Box”on Monday.\n“If they say, ‘We’re on path, things are good,’ then I would just go all in on the inflation trades. I’d probably buy commodities, buy crypto, buy gold,” added Tudor Jones, who called the stock market crash in 1987.\nThe legendary investor believe cryptocurrencies and other commodities are favorable inflation hedges. Other than buying the commodities outright, investors could also bet on related exchange-traded funds, like gold miner ETFs.\nThe VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX),the biggest gold miner ETF with more than $14 billion in assets under management, has outperformed the populargold ETF GLDso far this year.\nIf the Fed signals it’s time to start removing easy policies\nAnother widely speculated scenario is for the Fed to signal that it’s nearing the time to dial back easy policy saying it will start tapering soon and move up its forecast for a rate increase. Under such a case where the central bank isn’t sufficiently dovish, many expect bond yields to shoot higher.\n“It could easily move longer yields higher,” said Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist. “A revised dot plot could be one way to do that if it shows the anticipation of earlier or more aggressive rate hikes. And Fed Chair Jay Powell could easily push rates up if he shares that the Fed has started discussing tapering or suggests tapering could start in the next several months.”\nTudor Jones warned that this scenario could lead to another taper tantrum that could cause a correction in stocks.\n“If they course correct, if they say, ‘We’ve got incoming data, we’ve accomplished our mission or we’re on the way very rapidly to accomplishing our mission on employment,’ then you’re going to get a taper tantrum,”Tudor Jones said on Monday. “You’re going to get a sell-off in fixed income. You’re going to get a correction in stocks.”\nCNBC Pro combed through the returns of all S&P 500 stocks during the last five significant spikes in the 10-year Treasury yield. These five periods of a sharp move in rates occurred between 2003 and 2006, 2008 and 2009, 2012 and 2013, 2016 and 2018, and 2020 through now.\nAfter we found the stocks that beat the market every time, we looked for the names that are well-loved by analysts on Wall Street today. The stocks’ average gains during those rising interest rate periods are listed below, along with the percentage of analysts with buy ratings right now.\n\nBank of America’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian is advising clients to buy high-quality stocks when tapering nears. High-quality stocks have a “B+” or better S&P quality rating.\nSubramanian said during the 2013 taper tantrum, high-quality names outperformed their low-quality counterparts by 1.3 percentage points from peak to trough in May and June.\nA hint at removing stimulus could also hurt stocks that are most sensitive to the economic recovery, including cyclicals like financials, energy and materials.\n“More hawkish = lower growth. Cyclicals should underperform,” Dennis DeBusschere, macro research analyst at Evercore ISI, said in a note. “The fact that hawkish concerns are being brought up at the same time people believe the reflation trade is in trouble and you have a poor Cyclical backdrop.”\nSo far in 2021, the energy sector has been the biggest winner among the 11 S&P 500 groupings, up 46%. Financials and real estate both gained more than 20% this year.\nIf the Fed makes both camps happy\nA third scenario could occur in which the Fed signals that it is concerned about inflation, but the central bank is not yet ready to taper.\nIf Fed chair Jerome Powell admits the discussion of tapering but nothing has been decided, then the market will likely see a modest rally, led by tech stocks, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.\n“This is essentially the outcome that Powell and the Fed have been telegraphing for the past several weeks,” Essaye said. “This would be a continuation of the past two weeks’ Goldilocks market outlook. This outcome would help the S&P 500 extend last week’s breakout.”\nInvestors have been rotating back to tech as of late with bond yields coming down. The tech-heavyNasdaq Compositehas rallied about 2.5% this month, hitting a record close on Monday, its first all-time high since April 26. In comparison, the S&P 500 has risen just under 1% in June.\n“This is what the Fed has been doing for the last several months — warning that an inflation surge was coming but that it is transitory so no need to taper,” Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, told CNBC. “Moreover, this is probably the most expected outcome from the Fed meeting.”\n“Yes, there may be comments by members that the time to start talking about tapering is here, but I think Powell will continue to suggest that inflation is up as expected but is not yet acting any differently than anticipated,” added Paulsen.\nThis year’s pullback in tech stocks has opened some opportunities in high-quality names that are now trading at a discount, according to top-rated technology analyst Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein.\nThe Wall Street firm found several technology stocks that have inexpensive valuations and are high in quality. Bernstein screened for the cheapest tech names based on their forward price-to-earnings ratio. The firm also assigned each stock with a quality score.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185162509,"gmtCreate":1623637221401,"gmtModify":1634030846380,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing is caring","listText":"Sharing is caring","text":"Sharing is caring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185162509","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182455262,"gmtCreate":1623600801356,"gmtModify":1634031273498,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182455262","repostId":"1148565686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188536285,"gmtCreate":1623454272447,"gmtModify":1634033084902,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你该如何选择？","listText":"你该如何选择？","text":"你该如何选择？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188536285","repostId":"1198311684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198311684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623415805,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198311684?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198311684","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavir","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p>\n<p>Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p>\n<p>Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p>\n<p>Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p>\n<p>Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p>\n<p>Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p>\n<p>An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p>\n<p>Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p>\n<p>The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p>\n<p>Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198311684","content_text":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.\nCentral banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.\nWill it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates. \nCurrently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.\nInvestors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.\nOr investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.\nThird, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.\nAn alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.\nFourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)  TIP,+0.52% or commodities. \nFifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.\nThe ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.\nInvestors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising. \nPolicymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns. \nPerhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189509701,"gmtCreate":1623280416903,"gmtModify":1634035134259,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189509701","repostId":"1158809705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117966125,"gmtCreate":1623113886467,"gmtModify":1634036833715,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For sharing","listText":"For sharing","text":"For sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117966125","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196162025","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623049574,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196162025?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 15:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The second-half recovery is underway, and these are the top stocks to own, analysts say","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196162025","media":"cnbc","summary":"The reopening is well underway, and this week Wall Street analysts named some of their top ideas as ","content":"<div>\n<p>The reopening is well underway, and this week Wall Street analysts named some of their top ideas as the second half of 2021 nears.Analysts say the time is now for investors to begin taking advantage ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/06/analysts-like-top-stocks-for-the-recovery-match-booking-holdings.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The second-half recovery is underway, and these are the top stocks to own, analysts say</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe second-half recovery is underway, and these are the top stocks to own, analysts say\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 15:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/06/analysts-like-top-stocks-for-the-recovery-match-booking-holdings.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The reopening is well underway, and this week Wall Street analysts named some of their top ideas as the second half of 2021 nears.Analysts say the time is now for investors to begin taking advantage ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/06/analysts-like-top-stocks-for-the-recovery-match-booking-holdings.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPG":"西蒙地产","BKNG":"Booking Holdings","MTCH":"Match Group, Inc.","WMG":"华纳音乐"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/06/analysts-like-top-stocks-for-the-recovery-match-booking-holdings.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1196162025","content_text":"The reopening is well underway, and this week Wall Street analysts named some of their top ideas as the second half of 2021 nears.Analysts say the time is now for investors to begin taking advantage of the economic recovery and the growing number of quality buying opportunities.CNBC Pro combed through the top Wall Street research to find stocks that should bounce back quickly as 2021 rolls on.They include:Audacy,Booking Holdings,Warner Music Group,MatchandSimon.Match GroupThe online dating app company is poised to break out as mobility improves, according to Susquehanna analyst Shyam Patil.“Lots of upside potential still left ahead,” Patil wrote in a recent note.Match, which owns Tinder and several other dating websites, reported a robust earnings report in early may where it beat on revenue.“Tinder is continuing its momentum, and non-Tinder brands are crushing expectations, reaching a new record of 30% y/y growth in 1Q,” he said.Even as shares are down about 8.7% this year and have struggled under the weight of the pandemic, Patil said investors should stick with the stock.“We see MTCH as one of the strongest business franchises in the Internet sector, believe a likely second-half recovery should be a strong tail wind and would recommend taking advantage of the recent dip in the shares,” he wrote.It should be no surprise then, Patil added, that Match revenue continues to accelerate, especially as consumers reenter society.“MTCH noted that momentum is continuing across the portfolio, partially driven by the vaccine rollouts, particularly in the U.S.,” the firm wrote.Simon Property GroupA strong recovery is finally in sight for the beleaguered real estate investment trust and owner of malls and outlet centers, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Goldfarb wrote in a recent note.The firm raised its price target on Simon to a Street high price target of $150 per share from $130 after the company reported strong first-quarter earnings in May.“All in all, the strong 1Q21 beat and guidance increase, from a team known to be conservative, bodes well for the balance of this year into next,” he said.Additionally, March sales were back to 2019 levels and that should give investors confidence that more foot traffic is just around corner, Goldfarb said.“As the return to normalcy accelerates, we expect the retail landscape to continue its robust rebound, especially into a mask-free 2021 holiday season,” he said.Goldfarb also predicted that consumers may see a familiar face return to Simon malls as it gets closer to December.“This even opens the door for a return of Santa in-person for the holidays, which further showcases the importance of the mall within the consumer landscape,” Goldfarb said.Shares of Simon are up about 55% this year.AudacyInvestors should buy the dip in shares of the broadcast and website radio platform company, Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall said in a note to clients.The company, formerly known as Radio.com, is coming off a mixed first-quarter earnings report, but Cahall said he believes local customer spending is finally picking up and in some cases exceeding 2019 levels.“Audacy remains in our 2H recovery bucket as we expect the local ad market will snap back with reopening,” he wrote.A return to growth in the second quarter is also possible, making the stock attractive right now, Cahall said.“There are early signs of pent-up demand in impacted verticals, such as restaurants, retail, and sporting events — and we believe the combination of small- and mid-sized businesses returning, local events coming back and digital revenue growth will drive a strong top line acceleration in 2H21,” he said.The stock is also cheap, according to Cahall, who has Street high price target of $7 per share on Audacy.“We see no reason why reopening won’t happen so the recent pullback presents a nice entry point for this value stock, in our view,” the firm wrote.Shares finished the week down 1.8%.Warner Music Group - Guggenheim, Buy rating“WMG delivered strong F2Q results with double-digit revenue growth at both Recorded Music and Music Publishing. Importantly, the company’s investments in international growth and digital initiatives support our positive long-term view based on unique intellectual property control, leadership position in new content sourcing and increasing exposure to secular growth businesses. Looking forward, we expect continued revenue strength in streaming/digital driven by a strong 2H release slate & expanded partnerships as well as recovery of COVID impacted businesses like live performances.Match - Susquehanna, Positive rating“Upside Potential Still Left Ahead. … We see MTCH as one of the strongest business franchises in the Internet sector, believe a likely 2H recovery should be a strong tailwind, and would recommend taking advantage of the recent dip in the shares. Tinder is continuing its momentum, and non-Tinder brands are crushing expectations, reaching a new record of 30% y/y growth in 1Q. We view the outlook as solid yet conservative and believe MTCH has an opportunity to further accelerate revenue in 2Q. … MTCH noted that momentum is continuing across the portfolio, partially driven by the vaccine rollouts, particularly in the U.S.”Simon Property - Piper Sandler, Overweight rating“As the return to normalcy accelerates, we expect the retail landscape to continue its robust rebound, especially into a mask-free 2021 holiday season. … Notably, sales in March were back up to 2019 levels, and with the change in CDC guidance we expect an increasing number of shoppers will feel comfortable shopping indoors post-vaccine. This even opens the door for a return of Santa in-person for the holidays, which further showcases the importance of the mall within the consumer landscape. … The strong 1Q21 beat and guidance increase, from a team known to be conservative, bodes well for the balance of this year into next.”Audacy - Wells Fargo, Overweight rating“While the local ad recovery has lagged national to begin the year, AUD expects a hockey stick return to growth beginning in 2Q. … We see no reason why reopening won’t happen so the recent pullback presents a nice entry point for this value stock, in our view. … There are early signs of pent-up demand in impacted verticals, such as restaurants, retail, and sporting events — and we believe the combination of SMB’s returning, local events coming back and digital revenue growth will drive a strong top line acceleration in 2H21. … AUD remains in our 2H recovery bucket as we expect the local ad market will snap back with reopening.”Booking Holdings - Wolfe, Outperform rating“BKNG reported mixed 1Q results, as total bookings beat consensus estimates by 19%, while Revenue and EBITDA were 2% and $90m below the Street, respectively. Management discussed improving trends through April, with U.S. hotel room nights above pre-COVID levels, as pent-up consumer demand is expected to drive a strong summer travel rebound. Trends across Europe remain more challenged given lagging vaccination rates but are expected to improve ahead of the summer months. Overall, near term results remain at depressed levels, but demand trends are picking up and hopes of a strong 2H recovery are intact.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114944521,"gmtCreate":1623046063163,"gmtModify":1634095883878,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon!!","listText":"To the moon!!","text":"To the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114944521","repostId":"2141299286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112342448,"gmtCreate":1622853341784,"gmtModify":1634097417949,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"坚持就会看到希望？","listText":"坚持就会看到希望？","text":"坚持就会看到希望？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112342448","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>\n <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>\n <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>BABA Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p>\n<p>Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p>\n<p>At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p>\n<p><b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p>\n<p><i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p>\n<p><i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p>\n<p><i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p>\n<p>We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p>\n<p>I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p>\n<p>If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p>\n<p>We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p>\n<p>So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p>\n<p><b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p>\n<p>For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 20:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":367026844,"gmtCreate":1614895814688,"gmtModify":1703482609531,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>看看会不会卖飞","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>看看会不会卖飞","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$看看会不会卖飞","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7443114cadcde01c4b629377d1f3795","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367026844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":195161459,"gmtCreate":1621263173571,"gmtModify":1634192928135,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb19508877bf0b4aa7e9b774e89f0d1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195161459","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199803443,"gmtCreate":1620693465782,"gmtModify":1631887108239,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>人没了 ...","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>人没了 ...","text":"$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$人没了 ...","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8456537fa3192ef28b6d193f4f7c98c4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199803443","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341551850,"gmtCreate":1617842339370,"gmtModify":1634296223092,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice cake","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice cake","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$nice cake","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1464a03e210e52fb4d47abf2ac8aa155","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341551850","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389997606,"gmtCreate":1612660218405,"gmtModify":1703764137636,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No Worries","listText":"No Worries","text":"No Worries","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389997606","repostId":"2109705816","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":315113016,"gmtCreate":1612219285635,"gmtModify":1703758915443,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>刚刚成为小小新股东","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>刚刚成为小小新股东","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$刚刚成为小小新股东","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315113016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162817317,"gmtCreate":1624056363539,"gmtModify":1631892912499,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing","listText":"Sharing","text":"Sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162817317","repostId":"1111305468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185162509,"gmtCreate":1623637221401,"gmtModify":1634030846380,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sharing is caring","listText":"Sharing is caring","text":"Sharing is caring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185162509","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113093307,"gmtCreate":1622581430609,"gmtModify":1634100360165,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All in if drop to $90","listText":"All in if drop to $90","text":"All in if drop to $90","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113093307","repostId":"1107522849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?</p>\n<p>Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.</p>\n<p>The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\"><span>Figure 1: Wall Street bear.</span></p>\n<p><b>“12S cycle” coming up?</b></p>\n<p>New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.</p>\n<p>Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.</p>\n<p>In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Plugging some numbers</b></p>\n<p>New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.</p>\n<p>If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.</p>\n<p>Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.</p>\n<p><b>The Apple Maven’s opinion</b></p>\n<p>One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\"><span>Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.</span></p>\n<p>But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.</p>\n<p>Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li>\n <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-01 19:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100798197,"gmtCreate":1619649134319,"gmtModify":1634211144610,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文分享，点个赞呗","listText":"好文分享，点个赞呗","text":"好文分享，点个赞呗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100798197","repostId":"1104198438","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348868779,"gmtCreate":1617917229891,"gmtModify":1634295831465,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>slow and steady","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>slow and steady","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$slow and steady","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348868779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353905099,"gmtCreate":1616450878511,"gmtModify":1634525809773,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For sharing","listText":"For sharing","text":"For sharing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353905099","repostId":"2121740172","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188536285,"gmtCreate":1623454272447,"gmtModify":1634033084902,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你该如何选择？","listText":"你该如何选择？","text":"你该如何选择？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188536285","repostId":"1198311684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198311684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623415805,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198311684?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 20:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198311684","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavir","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.</p>\n<p>Central banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.</p>\n<p>Will it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Currently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.</p>\n<p>Investors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.</p>\n<p>Or investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.</p>\n<p>Third, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.</p>\n<p>An alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.</p>\n<p>Fourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) &nbsp;TIP,+0.52%&nbsp;or commodities.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Fifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.</p>\n<p>The ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.</p>\n<p>Investors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Policymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Perhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Stock investors now have come to a cliff in the road — and options are limited \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 20:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-now-have-come-to-a-cliff-in-the-road-and-options-are-limited-11623375733?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198311684","content_text":"Fundamental things haven’t applied to the U.S. market but that seems about to change.\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic has been excellent for investors, but most now realize that the stock market’s extraordinary performance is not based on fundamentals, which ceased to matter some time ago.\nCentral banks have been driving asset prices with massive liquidity infusions and zero interest rates. Consumption and corporate earnings are underpinned by large government transfer payments, fiscal stimulus and industry support.\nWill it last? The consensus is that most assets are overpriced. Prices ultimately are the present value of future cash flows. Authorities have manipulated the discount rate but altering underlying long-term cash flows, which are driven by the real economy, is more difficult. Low volatility, engineered by central banks, also encourages exuberant prices. At some stage, profligate government deficits may be reigned by either winding back spending or increasing taxes. These policies may also drive inflation, requiring tighter monetary policy and higher rates. \nCurrently high stock prices expose investors to the risk of a sudden correction, when the game of musical chairs stops unexpectedly. Given that almost all of the gains have been in price rather than income (dividends, interest, etc.), the vulnerability is exacerbated. The unstable structure of the financial system — high leverage, shadow banks, illiquidity, unresolved linkages, the rise in trend following investors — means that any problem may trigger a major adjustment.\nInvestors’ options are limited. You could believe in the permanency of a “new normal.” Risky asset investments are then justified on the basis that authorities must ensure high- and rising asset prices, primarily as the alternative is too awful to contemplate. This assumes that policy options remain unconstrained indefinitely.\nOr investors can rely on momentum, essentially Keynes’ so-called beauty contest theory of investing, which anticipated today’s “meme stocks.” Successful investment requires investors to select the most popular faces among all judges, rather than those they may personally find the most attractive. The difficulty is knowing the judge’s mind and recognizing when to sell before the music stops.\nThird, investors can park their money in cash. This means accepting exceptionally low returns perhaps for a prolonged period and, worst of all, missing out on further gains.\nAn alternative is to reposition defensively into assets or businesses with reliable income streams operating in essential industries or selling staples. These traditional “widows and orphans” investments are more difficult to find today. “Safe” government bonds now offer little income but high risk. Stock and property prices are highly correlated, reflecting investor behavior as well as the common reliance on leverage. More liquid and better-quality assets frequently come under selling pressure when leveraged investors need to raise cash. Today, just as a rising tide lifts all boats, a receding surge leaves everyone stranded.\nFourth, investors can seek to benefit from higher inflation, switching to stocks that benefit from increasing prices. But the impact on equity prices will depend on whether it is profit inflation (that is, end-product prices rise) or cost inflation, including increases in wages. If it is the latter, then the squeeze on earnings may adversely affect equity valuations. Combined with higher rates, this may adversely affect stocks. Another alternative is inflation-linked securities, such as Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)  TIP,+0.52% or commodities. \nFifth, investors could go “off-piste,” believing that existing policies are unsustainable and the economic system is irredeemable broken. This favors crypto-currencies, precious metals or collectibles — non-traditional assets whose supply is naturally constrained. The ability of the state to confiscate, tax and regulate, as well as reliance on courts to enforce rights, complicates this quest for freedom.\nThe ultra-rich and some high-net worth individuals have gone off-grid already by moving into private markets. Concerned about manipulated and gamified markets, they focus now on non-listed real businesses and assets as well as private debt, sacrificing liquidity and transparency for better economics, privacy and control. Unfortunately, these options are limited for ordinary individuals — a different form of inequality.\nInvestors therefore face Hobson’s illusory choice, where only one thing is actually offered. They can lose by betting against price rises or that prices keep rising. \nPolicymakers, meanwhile, continue to compound decades of mistakes. They must now keep increasing debt and maintaining low rates in order to keep asset prices high. Government deficits are essential to maintaining economic activity. Kicking the can down the road is the only way to ensure that the day of reckoning is deferred — NIMTO (not in my term of office). This forces investors to go out further on the risk curve to generate returns. \nPerhaps investors nowadays should stick to comedian Will Rogers’s famous investment advice: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":111219409,"gmtCreate":1622682031201,"gmtModify":1634099227443,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crazy","listText":"Crazy","text":"Crazy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111219409","repostId":"1115876867","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130510009,"gmtCreate":1621556310201,"gmtModify":1634188186330,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130510009","repostId":"1135487235","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375775977,"gmtCreate":1619399637399,"gmtModify":1631886289866,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">$Visa(V)$</a>不怕慢，只怕站","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">$Visa(V)$</a>不怕慢，只怕站","text":"$Visa(V)$不怕慢，只怕站","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302123c50be274c0363ec75752f77dec","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375775977","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329620867,"gmtCreate":1615244725259,"gmtModify":1703486110865,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wait and see","listText":"Wait and see","text":"Wait and see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329620867","repostId":"1166350867","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166350867","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615215209,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166350867?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple stock sank more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166350867","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Apple stock sank more than 2% on Monday.Rumors that Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special har","content":"<p>Apple stock sank more than 2%&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday.Rumors that&nbsp;<b>Apple Inc</b> (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special hardware event next month and release new iPad Pro models, iPad mini, and AirTags have been dismissed by a leading watcher of the tech giant, Apple Insider reported Sunday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6f4d601a19418bfb008c7cc9bc7f52\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple stock sank more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple stock sank more than 2%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-08 22:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock sank more than 2%&nbsp;on&nbsp;Monday.Rumors that&nbsp;<b>Apple Inc</b> (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special hardware event next month and release new iPad Pro models, iPad mini, and AirTags have been dismissed by a leading watcher of the tech giant, Apple Insider reported Sunday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6f4d601a19418bfb008c7cc9bc7f52\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166350867","content_text":"Apple stock sank more than 2% on Monday.Rumors that Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) will hold a special hardware event next month and release new iPad Pro models, iPad mini, and AirTags have been dismissed by a leading watcher of the tech giant, Apple Insider reported Sunday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":384076434,"gmtCreate":1613600897628,"gmtModify":1631884065109,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No one can stop bitcoin now..","listText":"No one can stop bitcoin now..","text":"No one can stop bitcoin now..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384076434","repostId":"2112859347","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165595848,"gmtCreate":1624150477984,"gmtModify":1631892912496,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice article","listText":"Nice article","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165595848","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105557329,"gmtCreate":1620312615161,"gmtModify":1631887108406,"author":{"id":"3571972126264206","authorId":"3571972126264206","name":"EthanShawn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131c6261f0ffae134fc5008931e71ccf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571972126264206","authorIdStr":"3571972126264206"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>呕了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>呕了","text":"$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$呕了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bdf8e88e6e49cacfb8c384bf35ad385","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105557329","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}