风清扬知无涯的个人主页 - 老虎社区

风清扬知无涯

风清扬知无涯

50

IP属地：浙江

233关注

2粉丝

2主题

0勋章

风清扬知无涯

04-29 21:11

$沪上阿姨(02589)$ 情绪来得快去得也快，

风清扬知无涯

04-25

根据我的账户收益情况，只能家里蹲[微笑]

风清扬知无涯

04-21

$TSLL 20250425 12.0 CALL$

风清扬知无涯

04-11

[微笑]

@Leader:$苹果(AAPL)$

$英伟达(NVDA)$

$台积电(TSM)$

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

$黄金主连 2506(GCmain)$ 基本落地了，可以下注了，冲冲冲！暴富的机遇，就那么几次，抓住就翻身！投资有风险，不要盲目跟！

风清扬知无涯

04-03

$TSLL 20250404 12.5 CALL$

风清扬知无涯

04-01

$T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTU)$

风清扬知无涯

03-21

有人真的高位站岗了嘛？

风清扬知无涯

03-21

狗庄

风清扬知无涯

03-20

[微笑]

@Dream散人:我平仓了10307.0股$T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTU)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

风清扬知无涯

03-17

$迪士尼(DIS)$ 走了

风清扬知无涯

03-17

$迪士尼(DIS)$ 终于涨了点

风清扬知无涯

03-13

[微笑]

@价值投资为王:完了，南下资金爆买，港股大顶要来了！

风清扬知无涯

03-12

[微笑]

@谋定后动:【谋早报】现在进港股会接盘吗？（2025年3月12日）

风清扬知无涯

03-12

[微笑]

@港股解码:港股通再扩容，有何影响？

风清扬知无涯

03-12

$越疆(02432)$卖早了，

风清扬知无涯

03-11

[微笑]

@中环杰哥投资探秘:实盘+美港股解读 – 如何对待目前的美股，以及港股的操作策略 3/11

风清扬知无涯

03-07

学习

@小虎访谈:【小虎访谈】Aaron_Hy：做空英伟达和特斯拉，日赚190万！特斯拉有可能跌到220！

风清扬知无涯

03-06

厉害

@AaronHy:$特斯拉(TSLA)$

$英特尔(INTC)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天目前盈利看准趋势 8个交易日翻五倍欢迎关注

风清扬知无涯

03-06

赤峰黄金$赤峰黄金(06693)$ 中

风清扬知无涯

03-06

$英特尔(INTC)$

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data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2506(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; 基本落地了，可以下注了，冲冲冲！ 暴富的机遇，就那么几次，抓住就翻身！ 投资有风险，不要盲目跟！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2506(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; 基本落地了，可以下注了，冲冲冲！ 暴富的机遇，就那么几次，抓住就翻身！ 投资有风险，不要盲目跟！","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $台积电(TSM)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $黄金主连 2506(GCmain)$ 基本落地了，可以下注了，冲冲冲！ 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时运不济，南下资金爆买的哪天，恒生指数距离历史最高点只晚了5个交易日。 2020年3月12日，南下资金单日净流入127亿，创历史记录，次日，南下资金再度爆买161.7亿，续刷历史记录。 这次，南下资金抄到大底，恒生指数从24000点涨到31183点，涨幅30%。 2021年1月4日-21日，南下资金疯狂买入港股，连续14个交易日，单日净流入金额超过100亿，更是在1月19日，创下单日净流入265.9亿的记录，创造了历史！ 南下资金英勇无畏的气势，让不少分析师喊出了：“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”的口号！ 然而，命运给南下资金开了个天大的玩笑，恒生指数在2021年2月18日见顶，此后一度暴跌53%！ 搞笑的是，恒指顶部较南下资金爆买哪天只隔了20个交易日、涨幅只有3.22%。 下图是南下资金大幅买入港股的时间，我在图中画上了红色的圆圈，除了2020年那次，其他几次，南下资金都买在了顶点： 为什么2020年那次，南下资金成功了？ 从趋势上看，2015年南下资金疯狂买入时，恒生指数刚刚大涨，结合当时的A股大牛市，已经进入牛市尾声了。 2018年那次更甚，在南下资金爆买前，恒生指数已经从2016年的底部涨了70%。 2021年，南下资金爆","text":"昨日，南下资金爆买港股，单日净流入296亿港币，创下自2014年11月港股通开通以来的历史新高！ 虽然南下资金疯狂涌入有望从外资手中争夺港股的定价权，但复盘历史，南下资金每次爆买港股时，几乎都买在了顶部！ 比如2015年4月8日，南下资金单日净流入111.6亿，创历史记录，较之前单日三五亿的净流入金额大幅放量。 次日，南下资金再度净买入108.3亿！ 12个交易日后，恒生指数见大顶，从28588点一路跌至18279点，跌幅高达36%。 2018年2月5日，沉寂许久的南下资金再度放量，单日净流入106亿，逼近2015年4月创下的单日111.6亿的记录。 时运不济，南下资金爆买的哪天，恒生指数距离历史最高点只晚了5个交易日。 2020年3月12日，南下资金单日净流入127亿，创历史记录，次日，南下资金再度爆买161.7亿，续刷历史记录。 这次，南下资金抄到大底，恒生指数从24000点涨到31183点，涨幅30%。 2021年1月4日-21日，南下资金疯狂买入港股，连续14个交易日，单日净流入金额超过100亿，更是在1月19日，创下单日净流入265.9亿的记录，创造了历史！ 南下资金英勇无畏的气势，让不少分析师喊出了：“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”的口号！ 然而，命运给南下资金开了个天大的玩笑，恒生指数在2021年2月18日见顶，此后一度暴跌53%！ 搞笑的是，恒指顶部较南下资金爆买哪天只隔了20个交易日、涨幅只有3.22%。 下图是南下资金大幅买入港股的时间，我在图中画上了红色的圆圈，除了2020年那次，其他几次，南下资金都买在了顶点： 为什么2020年那次，南下资金成功了？ 从趋势上看，2015年南下资金疯狂买入时，恒生指数刚刚大涨，结合当时的A股大牛市，已经进入牛市尾声了。 2018年那次更甚，在南下资金爆买前，恒生指数已经从2016年的底部涨了70%。 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一、资金属性的微观结构证据 从交易行为特征分析，两类资金呈现显著差异。内资集中涌入科技板块，前五大持仓股平均持有量增长23%，其中阿里巴巴港股通持仓占比升至6.3%，操作上呈现典型的\"开盘30分钟集中建仓\"模式，市价单占比达65%。相比之下，外资交易时段分布更为均衡，限价单占比78%，且价差容忍度中位数维持在0.3%的理性区间。衍生品市场数据提供补充佐证。内资主导的科技股暴涨期间，虚值看涨期权持仓量激增120%，隐含波动率溢价较历史均值高出15个百分点，而外资偏爱的金融板块，其股指期货套保比率稳定在0.6的水平。这种风险偏好差异，揭示出两类资金在投资逻辑上的本质分野。 二、内外资比例测算与动态演变 基于多维度数据交叉验证，2月流动性构成呈现\"**格局\"。量化模型显示，当月港股市场新增流动性中，内资贡献度约62%，外资占38%。其中内资的94%通过沪深港通渠道注入，主要配置科技(45%)、高股息(32%)板块；外资构成中，被动型ETF资金占58%，对冲基金占29%，而长线主权基金仅占13%。这种结构在时间维度上呈现显著变化。2月首周内外资占比为55:45，至月末演变为68:32，内资主导地位持续强化","listText":"香港资本市场3月流动性呈现\"内资主导强化\"特征。根据香港金管局数据，当月外汇储备规模环比减少5.1亿美元至4164亿美元，但依然维持在外汇流动性覆盖率125%的安全阈值之上。这种看似矛盾的流动性环境，实则反映出资金属性的深层变革——南向资金单月净买入1410亿港元，创历史次高纪录，而北向资金中被动型外资占比攀升至交易量的37%。政策调控在此过程中发挥关键作用。国家外汇管理局新规要求港股IPO及再融资资金出境需取得\"无异议函\"，导致约68%的中资企业选择将募资净额汇回境内。这种监管套利空间的压缩，客观上促使境内资本通过沪深港通渠道进行跨境配置，形成\"监管驱动型内资流动\"的特殊现象。 一、资金属性的微观结构证据 从交易行为特征分析，两类资金呈现显著差异。内资集中涌入科技板块，前五大持仓股平均持有量增长23%，其中阿里巴巴港股通持仓占比升至6.3%，操作上呈现典型的\"开盘30分钟集中建仓\"模式，市价单占比达65%。相比之下，外资交易时段分布更为均衡，限价单占比78%，且价差容忍度中位数维持在0.3%的理性区间。衍生品市场数据提供补充佐证。内资主导的科技股暴涨期间，虚值看涨期权持仓量激增120%，隐含波动率溢价较历史均值高出15个百分点，而外资偏爱的金融板块，其股指期货套保比率稳定在0.6的水平。这种风险偏好差异，揭示出两类资金在投资逻辑上的本质分野。 二、内外资比例测算与动态演变 基于多维度数据交叉验证，2月流动性构成呈现\"**格局\"。量化模型显示，当月港股市场新增流动性中，内资贡献度约62%，外资占38%。其中内资的94%通过沪深港通渠道注入，主要配置科技(45%)、高股息(32%)板块；外资构成中，被动型ETF资金占58%，对冲基金占29%，而长线主权基金仅占13%。这种结构在时间维度上呈现显著变化。2月首周内外资占比为55:45，至月末演变为68:32，内资主导地位持续强化","text":"香港资本市场3月流动性呈现\"内资主导强化\"特征。根据香港金管局数据，当月外汇储备规模环比减少5.1亿美元至4164亿美元，但依然维持在外汇流动性覆盖率125%的安全阈值之上。这种看似矛盾的流动性环境，实则反映出资金属性的深层变革——南向资金单月净买入1410亿港元，创历史次高纪录，而北向资金中被动型外资占比攀升至交易量的37%。政策调控在此过程中发挥关键作用。国家外汇管理局新规要求港股IPO及再融资资金出境需取得\"无异议函\"，导致约68%的中资企业选择将募资净额汇回境内。这种监管套利空间的压缩，客观上促使境内资本通过沪深港通渠道进行跨境配置，形成\"监管驱动型内资流动\"的特殊现象。 一、资金属性的微观结构证据 从交易行为特征分析，两类资金呈现显著差异。内资集中涌入科技板块，前五大持仓股平均持有量增长23%，其中阿里巴巴港股通持仓占比升至6.3%，操作上呈现典型的\"开盘30分钟集中建仓\"模式，市价单占比达65%。相比之下，外资交易时段分布更为均衡，限价单占比78%，且价差容忍度中位数维持在0.3%的理性区间。衍生品市场数据提供补充佐证。内资主导的科技股暴涨期间，虚值看涨期权持仓量激增120%，隐含波动率溢价较历史均值高出15个百分点，而外资偏爱的金融板块，其股指期货套保比率稳定在0.6的水平。这种风险偏好差异，揭示出两类资金在投资逻辑上的本质分野。 二、内外资比例测算与动态演变 基于多维度数据交叉验证，2月流动性构成呈现\"**格局\"。量化模型显示，当月港股市场新增流动性中，内资贡献度约62%，外资占38%。其中内资的94%通过沪深港通渠道注入，主要配置科技(45%)、高股息(32%)板块；外资构成中，被动型ETF资金占58%，对冲基金占29%，而长线主权基金仅占13%。这种结构在时间维度上呈现显著变化。2月首周内外资占比为55:45，至月末演变为68:32，内资主导地位持续强化","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3241c13114559c5bd672dc1544d65514"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412502206071320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":412520426094640,"gmtCreate":1741747714355,"gmtModify":1741747715833,"author":{"id":"3576718043229412","authorId":"3576718043229412","name":"风清扬 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调整是在预期之内，因为这是根据恒生综合大型股指数、中型股指数、小型股指数实施相应的成分股调整，而早在2025年2月21日时，恒生指数公司就宣布了2024年末的季检结果，所有变动于3月7日（周五）收市后实施并在3月10日（周一）起生效。 沪深交易所这次调整只是根据恒生指数公司的调整而作出。 获调入港股通的公司包括 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06086\">$方舟健客(06086)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">$毛戈平(01318)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02507\">$西锐(02507)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02432\">$越疆(02432)$</a> ，也不乏老牌港股企业，如鹰君（00041.HK），详情见下表。 受调入消息带动，方舟健客、同源康医药-B（02410.HK）、卫龙美味（09985.HK）、毛戈平、香港中旅（00308.HK）等股价大涨，其中方舟健客现大涨38.01%，报6.10港元，市值达81.76亿港元，早段曾一度涨至7.55港元，涨幅高达70.81%。 另一方面，28支股票被移出港股通名单，包括SOHO中国（00410.HK）、美东汽车（01268.HK）、来凯医药-B（02105.HK）、创新奇智（02121.HK）、百果园（02411.HK）、海伦司（09869.HK）、奈雪的茶（02150.HK）等。受此拖累，创新奇智、百果园、海伦司、奈雪的茶、艾美疫苗（06660.HK）、科迪-B（02487.HK）等股价下挫逾18%，其中百果园、海伦司、奈雪的茶等","listText":"上交所和深交所双双发布公告，宣布其沪深港通下港股通标的名单发生调整，从2025年3月10日起开始生效。 调整是在预期之内，因为这是根据恒生综合大型股指数、中型股指数、小型股指数实施相应的成分股调整，而早在2025年2月21日时，恒生指数公司就宣布了2024年末的季检结果，所有变动于3月7日（周五）收市后实施并在3月10日（周一）起生效。 沪深交易所这次调整只是根据恒生指数公司的调整而作出。 获调入港股通的公司包括 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06086\">$方舟健客(06086)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">$毛戈平(01318)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02507\">$西锐(02507)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02432\">$越疆(02432)$</a> ，也不乏老牌港股企业，如鹰君（00041.HK），详情见下表。 受调入消息带动，方舟健客、同源康医药-B（02410.HK）、卫龙美味（09985.HK）、毛戈平、香港中旅（00308.HK）等股价大涨，其中方舟健客现大涨38.01%，报6.10港元，市值达81.76亿港元，早段曾一度涨至7.55港元，涨幅高达70.81%。 另一方面，28支股票被移出港股通名单，包括SOHO中国（00410.HK）、美东汽车（01268.HK）、来凯医药-B（02105.HK）、创新奇智（02121.HK）、百果园（02411.HK）、海伦司（09869.HK）、奈雪的茶（02150.HK）等。受此拖累，创新奇智、百果园、海伦司、奈雪的茶、艾美疫苗（06660.HK）、科迪-B（02487.HK）等股价下挫逾18%，其中百果园、海伦司、奈雪的茶等","text":"上交所和深交所双双发布公告，宣布其沪深港通下港股通标的名单发生调整，从2025年3月10日起开始生效。 调整是在预期之内，因为这是根据恒生综合大型股指数、中型股指数、小型股指数实施相应的成分股调整，而早在2025年2月21日时，恒生指数公司就宣布了2024年末的季检结果，所有变动于3月7日（周五）收市后实施并在3月10日（周一）起生效。 沪深交易所这次调整只是根据恒生指数公司的调整而作出。 获调入港股通的公司包括 $方舟健客(06086)$ 、 $毛戈平(01318)$ 、 $西锐(02507)$ 、 $越疆(02432)$ ，也不乏老牌港股企业，如鹰君（00041.HK），详情见下表。 受调入消息带动，方舟健客、同源康医药-B（02410.HK）、卫龙美味（09985.HK）、毛戈平、香港中旅（00308.HK）等股价大涨，其中方舟健客现大涨38.01%，报6.10港元，市值达81.76亿港元，早段曾一度涨至7.55港元，涨幅高达70.81%。 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比如2015年4月8日，南下资金单日净流入111.6亿，创历史记录，较之前单日三五亿的净流入金额大幅放量。 次日，南下资金再度净买入108.3亿！ 12个交易日后，恒生指数见大顶，从28588点一路跌至18279点，跌幅高达36%。 2018年2月5日，沉寂许久的南下资金再度放量，单日净流入106亿，逼近2015年4月创下的单日111.6亿的记录。 时运不济，南下资金爆买的哪天，恒生指数距离历史最高点只晚了5个交易日。 2020年3月12日，南下资金单日净流入127亿，创历史记录，次日，南下资金再度爆买161.7亿，续刷历史记录。 这次，南下资金抄到大底，恒生指数从24000点涨到31183点，涨幅30%。 2021年1月4日-21日，南下资金疯狂买入港股，连续14个交易日，单日净流入金额超过100亿，更是在1月19日，创下单日净流入265.9亿的记录，创造了历史！ 南下资金英勇无畏的气势，让不少分析师喊出了：“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”的口号！ 然而，命运给南下资金开了个天大的玩笑，恒生指数在2021年2月18日见顶，此后一度暴跌53%！ 搞笑的是，恒指顶部较南下资金爆买哪天只隔了20个交易日、涨幅只有3.22%。 下图是南下资金大幅买入港股的时间，我在图中画上了红色的圆圈，除了2020年那次，其他几次，南下资金都买在了顶点： 为什么2020年那次，南下资金成功了？ 从趋势上看，2015年南下资金疯狂买入时，恒生指数刚刚大涨，结合当时的A股大牛市，已经进入牛市尾声了。 2018年那次更甚，在南下资金爆买前，恒生指数已经从2016年的底部涨了70%。 2021年，南下资金爆","listText":"昨日，南下资金爆买港股，单日净流入296亿港币，创下自2014年11月港股通开通以来的历史新高！ 虽然南下资金疯狂涌入有望从外资手中争夺港股的定价权，但复盘历史，南下资金每次爆买港股时，几乎都买在了顶部！ 比如2015年4月8日，南下资金单日净流入111.6亿，创历史记录，较之前单日三五亿的净流入金额大幅放量。 次日，南下资金再度净买入108.3亿！ 12个交易日后，恒生指数见大顶，从28588点一路跌至18279点，跌幅高达36%。 2018年2月5日，沉寂许久的南下资金再度放量，单日净流入106亿，逼近2015年4月创下的单日111.6亿的记录。 时运不济，南下资金爆买的哪天，恒生指数距离历史最高点只晚了5个交易日。 2020年3月12日，南下资金单日净流入127亿，创历史记录，次日，南下资金再度爆买161.7亿，续刷历史记录。 这次，南下资金抄到大底，恒生指数从24000点涨到31183点，涨幅30%。 2021年1月4日-21日，南下资金疯狂买入港股，连续14个交易日，单日净流入金额超过100亿，更是在1月19日，创下单日净流入265.9亿的记录，创造了历史！ 南下资金英勇无畏的气势，让不少分析师喊出了：“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”的口号！ 然而，命运给南下资金开了个天大的玩笑，恒生指数在2021年2月18日见顶，此后一度暴跌53%！ 搞笑的是，恒指顶部较南下资金爆买哪天只隔了20个交易日、涨幅只有3.22%。 下图是南下资金大幅买入港股的时间，我在图中画上了红色的圆圈，除了2020年那次，其他几次，南下资金都买在了顶点： 为什么2020年那次，南下资金成功了？ 从趋势上看，2015年南下资金疯狂买入时，恒生指数刚刚大涨，结合当时的A股大牛市，已经进入牛市尾声了。 2018年那次更甚，在南下资金爆买前，恒生指数已经从2016年的底部涨了70%。 2021年，南下资金爆","text":"昨日，南下资金爆买港股，单日净流入296亿港币，创下自2014年11月港股通开通以来的历史新高！ 虽然南下资金疯狂涌入有望从外资手中争夺港股的定价权，但复盘历史，南下资金每次爆买港股时，几乎都买在了顶部！ 比如2015年4月8日，南下资金单日净流入111.6亿，创历史记录，较之前单日三五亿的净流入金额大幅放量。 次日，南下资金再度净买入108.3亿！ 12个交易日后，恒生指数见大顶，从28588点一路跌至18279点，跌幅高达36%。 2018年2月5日，沉寂许久的南下资金再度放量，单日净流入106亿，逼近2015年4月创下的单日111.6亿的记录。 时运不济，南下资金爆买的哪天，恒生指数距离历史最高点只晚了5个交易日。 2020年3月12日，南下资金单日净流入127亿，创历史记录，次日，南下资金再度爆买161.7亿，续刷历史记录。 这次，南下资金抄到大底，恒生指数从24000点涨到31183点，涨幅30%。 2021年1月4日-21日，南下资金疯狂买入港股，连续14个交易日，单日净流入金额超过100亿，更是在1月19日，创下单日净流入265.9亿的记录，创造了历史！ 南下资金英勇无畏的气势，让不少分析师喊出了：“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”的口号！ 然而，命运给南下资金开了个天大的玩笑，恒生指数在2021年2月18日见顶，此后一度暴跌53%！ 搞笑的是，恒指顶部较南下资金爆买哪天只隔了20个交易日、涨幅只有3.22%。 下图是南下资金大幅买入港股的时间，我在图中画上了红色的圆圈，除了2020年那次，其他几次，南下资金都买在了顶点： 为什么2020年那次，南下资金成功了？ 从趋势上看，2015年南下资金疯狂买入时，恒生指数刚刚大涨，结合当时的A股大牛市，已经进入牛市尾声了。 2018年那次更甚，在南下资金爆买前，恒生指数已经从2016年的底部涨了70%。 2021年，南下资金爆","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2d9311bf51252a8d2e283f90b1b2ffb","width":"1416","height":"628"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412328788148464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":412544371417400,"gmtCreate":1741754245373,"gmtModify":1741754246796,"author":{"id":"3576718043229412","authorId":"3576718043229412","name":"风清扬 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一、资金属性的微观结构证据 从交易行为特征分析，两类资金呈现显著差异。内资集中涌入科技板块，前五大持仓股平均持有量增长23%，其中阿里巴巴港股通持仓占比升至6.3%，操作上呈现典型的\"开盘30分钟集中建仓\"模式，市价单占比达65%。相比之下，外资交易时段分布更为均衡，限价单占比78%，且价差容忍度中位数维持在0.3%的理性区间。衍生品市场数据提供补充佐证。内资主导的科技股暴涨期间，虚值看涨期权持仓量激增120%，隐含波动率溢价较历史均值高出15个百分点，而外资偏爱的金融板块，其股指期货套保比率稳定在0.6的水平。这种风险偏好差异，揭示出两类资金在投资逻辑上的本质分野。 二、内外资比例测算与动态演变 基于多维度数据交叉验证，2月流动性构成呈现\"**格局\"。量化模型显示，当月港股市场新增流动性中，内资贡献度约62%，外资占38%。其中内资的94%通过沪深港通渠道注入，主要配置科技(45%)、高股息(32%)板块；外资构成中，被动型ETF资金占58%，对冲基金占29%，而长线主权基金仅占13%。这种结构在时间维度上呈现显著变化。2月首周内外资占比为55:45，至月末演变为68:32，内资主导地位持续强化","listText":"香港资本市场3月流动性呈现\"内资主导强化\"特征。根据香港金管局数据，当月外汇储备规模环比减少5.1亿美元至4164亿美元，但依然维持在外汇流动性覆盖率125%的安全阈值之上。这种看似矛盾的流动性环境，实则反映出资金属性的深层变革——南向资金单月净买入1410亿港元，创历史次高纪录，而北向资金中被动型外资占比攀升至交易量的37%。政策调控在此过程中发挥关键作用。国家外汇管理局新规要求港股IPO及再融资资金出境需取得\"无异议函\"，导致约68%的中资企业选择将募资净额汇回境内。这种监管套利空间的压缩，客观上促使境内资本通过沪深港通渠道进行跨境配置，形成\"监管驱动型内资流动\"的特殊现象。 一、资金属性的微观结构证据 从交易行为特征分析，两类资金呈现显著差异。内资集中涌入科技板块，前五大持仓股平均持有量增长23%，其中阿里巴巴港股通持仓占比升至6.3%，操作上呈现典型的\"开盘30分钟集中建仓\"模式，市价单占比达65%。相比之下，外资交易时段分布更为均衡，限价单占比78%，且价差容忍度中位数维持在0.3%的理性区间。衍生品市场数据提供补充佐证。内资主导的科技股暴涨期间，虚值看涨期权持仓量激增120%，隐含波动率溢价较历史均值高出15个百分点，而外资偏爱的金融板块，其股指期货套保比率稳定在0.6的水平。这种风险偏好差异，揭示出两类资金在投资逻辑上的本质分野。 二、内外资比例测算与动态演变 基于多维度数据交叉验证，2月流动性构成呈现\"**格局\"。量化模型显示，当月港股市场新增流动性中，内资贡献度约62%，外资占38%。其中内资的94%通过沪深港通渠道注入，主要配置科技(45%)、高股息(32%)板块；外资构成中，被动型ETF资金占58%，对冲基金占29%，而长线主权基金仅占13%。这种结构在时间维度上呈现显著变化。2月首周内外资占比为55:45，至月末演变为68:32，内资主导地位持续强化","text":"香港资本市场3月流动性呈现\"内资主导强化\"特征。根据香港金管局数据，当月外汇储备规模环比减少5.1亿美元至4164亿美元，但依然维持在外汇流动性覆盖率125%的安全阈值之上。这种看似矛盾的流动性环境，实则反映出资金属性的深层变革——南向资金单月净买入1410亿港元，创历史次高纪录，而北向资金中被动型外资占比攀升至交易量的37%。政策调控在此过程中发挥关键作用。国家外汇管理局新规要求港股IPO及再融资资金出境需取得\"无异议函\"，导致约68%的中资企业选择将募资净额汇回境内。这种监管套利空间的压缩，客观上促使境内资本通过沪深港通渠道进行跨境配置，形成\"监管驱动型内资流动\"的特殊现象。 一、资金属性的微观结构证据 从交易行为特征分析，两类资金呈现显著差异。内资集中涌入科技板块，前五大持仓股平均持有量增长23%，其中阿里巴巴港股通持仓占比升至6.3%，操作上呈现典型的\"开盘30分钟集中建仓\"模式，市价单占比达65%。相比之下，外资交易时段分布更为均衡，限价单占比78%，且价差容忍度中位数维持在0.3%的理性区间。衍生品市场数据提供补充佐证。内资主导的科技股暴涨期间，虚值看涨期权持仓量激增120%，隐含波动率溢价较历史均值高出15个百分点，而外资偏爱的金融板块，其股指期货套保比率稳定在0.6的水平。这种风险偏好差异，揭示出两类资金在投资逻辑上的本质分野。 二、内外资比例测算与动态演变 基于多维度数据交叉验证，2月流动性构成呈现\"**格局\"。量化模型显示，当月港股市场新增流动性中，内资贡献度约62%，外资占38%。其中内资的94%通过沪深港通渠道注入，主要配置科技(45%)、高股息(32%)板块；外资构成中，被动型ETF资金占58%，对冲基金占29%，而长线主权基金仅占13%。这种结构在时间维度上呈现显著变化。2月首周内外资占比为55:45，至月末演变为68:32，内资主导地位持续强化","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3241c13114559c5bd672dc1544d65514"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412502206071320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":412520426094640,"gmtCreate":1741747714355,"gmtModify":1741747715833,"author":{"id":"3576718043229412","authorId":"3576718043229412","name":"风清扬 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调整是在预期之内，因为这是根据恒生综合大型股指数、中型股指数、小型股指数实施相应的成分股调整，而早在2025年2月21日时，恒生指数公司就宣布了2024年末的季检结果，所有变动于3月7日（周五）收市后实施并在3月10日（周一）起生效。 沪深交易所这次调整只是根据恒生指数公司的调整而作出。 获调入港股通的公司包括 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06086\">$方舟健客(06086)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">$毛戈平(01318)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02507\">$西锐(02507)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02432\">$越疆(02432)$</a> ，也不乏老牌港股企业，如鹰君（00041.HK），详情见下表。 受调入消息带动，方舟健客、同源康医药-B（02410.HK）、卫龙美味（09985.HK）、毛戈平、香港中旅（00308.HK）等股价大涨，其中方舟健客现大涨38.01%，报6.10港元，市值达81.76亿港元，早段曾一度涨至7.55港元，涨幅高达70.81%。 另一方面，28支股票被移出港股通名单，包括SOHO中国（00410.HK）、美东汽车（01268.HK）、来凯医药-B（02105.HK）、创新奇智（02121.HK）、百果园（02411.HK）、海伦司（09869.HK）、奈雪的茶（02150.HK）等。受此拖累，创新奇智、百果园、海伦司、奈雪的茶、艾美疫苗（06660.HK）、科迪-B（02487.HK）等股价下挫逾18%，其中百果园、海伦司、奈雪的茶等","listText":"上交所和深交所双双发布公告，宣布其沪深港通下港股通标的名单发生调整，从2025年3月10日起开始生效。 调整是在预期之内，因为这是根据恒生综合大型股指数、中型股指数、小型股指数实施相应的成分股调整，而早在2025年2月21日时，恒生指数公司就宣布了2024年末的季检结果，所有变动于3月7日（周五）收市后实施并在3月10日（周一）起生效。 沪深交易所这次调整只是根据恒生指数公司的调整而作出。 获调入港股通的公司包括 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06086\">$方舟健客(06086)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">$毛戈平(01318)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02507\">$西锐(02507)$</a> 、 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02432\">$越疆(02432)$</a> ，也不乏老牌港股企业，如鹰君（00041.HK），详情见下表。 受调入消息带动，方舟健客、同源康医药-B（02410.HK）、卫龙美味（09985.HK）、毛戈平、香港中旅（00308.HK）等股价大涨，其中方舟健客现大涨38.01%，报6.10港元，市值达81.76亿港元，早段曾一度涨至7.55港元，涨幅高达70.81%。 另一方面，28支股票被移出港股通名单，包括SOHO中国（00410.HK）、美东汽车（01268.HK）、来凯医药-B（02105.HK）、创新奇智（02121.HK）、百果园（02411.HK）、海伦司（09869.HK）、奈雪的茶（02150.HK）等。受此拖累，创新奇智、百果园、海伦司、奈雪的茶、艾美疫苗（06660.HK）、科迪-B（02487.HK）等股价下挫逾18%，其中百果园、海伦司、奈雪的茶等","text":"上交所和深交所双双发布公告，宣布其沪深港通下港股通标的名单发生调整，从2025年3月10日起开始生效。 调整是在预期之内，因为这是根据恒生综合大型股指数、中型股指数、小型股指数实施相应的成分股调整，而早在2025年2月21日时，恒生指数公司就宣布了2024年末的季检结果，所有变动于3月7日（周五）收市后实施并在3月10日（周一）起生效。 沪深交易所这次调整只是根据恒生指数公司的调整而作出。 获调入港股通的公司包括 $方舟健客(06086)$ 、 $毛戈平(01318)$ 、 $西锐(02507)$ 、 $越疆(02432)$ ，也不乏老牌港股企业，如鹰君（00041.HK），详情见下表。 受调入消息带动，方舟健客、同源康医药-B（02410.HK）、卫龙美味（09985.HK）、毛戈平、香港中旅（00308.HK）等股价大涨，其中方舟健客现大涨38.01%，报6.10港元，市值达81.76亿港元，早段曾一度涨至7.55港元，涨幅高达70.81%。 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美股，大幅下挫，用媒体的话，就是血流成河。这些也都对。但，我们必须有自己的认知和操作标准，这样，才能进退有据，抵御风险，并达到自己的目标。至于港股，的确在走这波行情的第一个振荡，并且之后大概率走高，而当下，我们的策略还是有效的。 $标普500$ 历史可以借鉴，时间说明一切 1,盘面情况，美股夜盘开盘就中阴下跌，承接了周末的悲观气氛，中间有一个弱势反弹，达到小跌的程度，但是，正式开盘前，已经达到了大跌的程度，开盘后，更是一浪低于一浪地大幅下挫，最后暴跌收场。 2,K线分析， 这波大跌，程度上，已经和去年7月份基本一致，标普差不到一个点，纳指也就1-2个点，从最后一浪看时间几乎一样，从整体上看，这次已经有3个多月之久，远远超过上次，反而和前年的一波极为类似。纳指甚至比前年的深度还深。这就很好地解释了目前的调整节奏，市场原来预期的年中的调整，提前到了年初。周线上也恰好达到了55天线的位置。这比较痛苦，但，我们还是要清醒地认识我们处的阶段和调整的深度和广度。 3,市场消息和基本面， 至于市场上的各种消息和反馈，已经没有必要一一列举，市场暴跌足以说明了。那么，我们看看今年的情形到底有多糟，这对我们一整年的预期和操作都有决定性的影响。1，利率，2022年是加息之年，通货膨胀极高，8%+， 目前，是3%+，而且极有可能再降息(最近国债收益率大降，年前可是大涨)，2，2022年有俄乌事件，对世界的心理影响，企业损失等等，今年有关税和政府瘦身，关税，是一次性事件，其次，老美的内需比重极高，外贸占比不高，而且所有关税(受影响部分)加起来的占比和影响也是很小的。我们还要看看好的一面，放松管制，减税，关税引起的加大投资，AI的持续爆发(deepseek让爆发更加猛烈)，政府开源节流，钱会流向民间。。。。。。经济走低，消费信心不足，降息可能性加大，纳指整体估值已经降到26左右。 $纳斯达克$","listText":"实盘: 美股，大幅下挫，用媒体的话，就是血流成河。这些也都对。但，我们必须有自己的认知和操作标准，这样，才能进退有据，抵御风险，并达到自己的目标。至于港股，的确在走这波行情的第一个振荡，并且之后大概率走高，而当下，我们的策略还是有效的。 $标普500$ 历史可以借鉴，时间说明一切 1,盘面情况，美股夜盘开盘就中阴下跌，承接了周末的悲观气氛，中间有一个弱势反弹，达到小跌的程度，但是，正式开盘前，已经达到了大跌的程度，开盘后，更是一浪低于一浪地大幅下挫，最后暴跌收场。 2,K线分析， 这波大跌，程度上，已经和去年7月份基本一致，标普差不到一个点，纳指也就1-2个点，从最后一浪看时间几乎一样，从整体上看，这次已经有3个多月之久，远远超过上次，反而和前年的一波极为类似。纳指甚至比前年的深度还深。这就很好地解释了目前的调整节奏，市场原来预期的年中的调整，提前到了年初。周线上也恰好达到了55天线的位置。这比较痛苦，但，我们还是要清醒地认识我们处的阶段和调整的深度和广度。 3,市场消息和基本面， 至于市场上的各种消息和反馈，已经没有必要一一列举，市场暴跌足以说明了。那么，我们看看今年的情形到底有多糟，这对我们一整年的预期和操作都有决定性的影响。1，利率，2022年是加息之年，通货膨胀极高，8%+， 目前，是3%+，而且极有可能再降息(最近国债收益率大降，年前可是大涨)，2，2022年有俄乌事件，对世界的心理影响，企业损失等等，今年有关税和政府瘦身，关税，是一次性事件，其次，老美的内需比重极高，外贸占比不高，而且所有关税(受影响部分)加起来的占比和影响也是很小的。我们还要看看好的一面，放松管制，减税，关税引起的加大投资，AI的持续爆发(deepseek让爆发更加猛烈)，政府开源节流，钱会流向民间。。。。。。经济走低，消费信心不足，降息可能性加大，纳指整体估值已经降到26左右。 $纳斯达克$","text":"实盘: 美股，大幅下挫，用媒体的话，就是血流成河。这些也都对。但，我们必须有自己的认知和操作标准，这样，才能进退有据，抵御风险，并达到自己的目标。至于港股，的确在走这波行情的第一个振荡，并且之后大概率走高，而当下，我们的策略还是有效的。 $标普500$ 历史可以借鉴，时间说明一切 1,盘面情况，美股夜盘开盘就中阴下跌，承接了周末的悲观气氛，中间有一个弱势反弹，达到小跌的程度，但是，正式开盘前，已经达到了大跌的程度，开盘后，更是一浪低于一浪地大幅下挫，最后暴跌收场。 2,K线分析， 这波大跌，程度上，已经和去年7月份基本一致，标普差不到一个点，纳指也就1-2个点，从最后一浪看时间几乎一样，从整体上看，这次已经有3个多月之久，远远超过上次，反而和前年的一波极为类似。纳指甚至比前年的深度还深。这就很好地解释了目前的调整节奏，市场原来预期的年中的调整，提前到了年初。周线上也恰好达到了55天线的位置。这比较痛苦，但，我们还是要清醒地认识我们处的阶段和调整的深度和广度。 3,市场消息和基本面， 至于市场上的各种消息和反馈，已经没有必要一一列举，市场暴跌足以说明了。那么，我们看看今年的情形到底有多糟，这对我们一整年的预期和操作都有决定性的影响。1，利率，2022年是加息之年，通货膨胀极高，8%+， 目前，是3%+，而且极有可能再降息(最近国债收益率大降，年前可是大涨)，2，2022年有俄乌事件，对世界的心理影响，企业损失等等，今年有关税和政府瘦身，关税，是一次性事件，其次，老美的内需比重极高，外贸占比不高，而且所有关税(受影响部分)加起来的占比和影响也是很小的。我们还要看看好的一面，放松管制，减税，关税引起的加大投资，AI的持续爆发(deepseek让爆发更加猛烈)，政府开源节流，钱会流向民间。。。。。。经济走低，消费信心不足，降息可能性加大，纳指整体估值已经降到26左右。 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