gwp0123的个人主页 - 老虎社区

gwp0123

gwp0123

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2021-05-21

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-20

呵呵呵

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2021-05-19

Wake up

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2021-05-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@carmenng:$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$i m bankrupt

2021-05-18

涨价？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-15

扎堆发行，要干嘛？

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2021-05-15

OK OK

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2021-05-14

该好好整顿

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2021-05-13

$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$wowoooo! Slow down, what’s happening? lol

2021-05-12

这操作！！！

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2021-05-11

内爆是啥意思

美国经济可能”内爆“，在这之前还能买什么？

2021-05-10

无所谓啦反正//@tw0303:特斯拉品质有待提高

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2021-05-09

科技是永恒的主题

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2021-05-09

$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$Huston! Do you read?

2021-05-09

yeeeessss, that would be our Cathie!!!!

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2021-05-07

边走边看，一键清仓[流泪]

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2021-05-07

论取名的重要性

蔚来、小鹏出海第一站，为何选择了挪威？

2021-05-07

只是技术性调整

恒生科技指数跌超2%，舜宇光学科技跌超7%

2021-05-07

believed it or not, I am going in...

“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？

2021-05-07

因为感情不好还是三观不合？

抱歉，原内容已删除

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Slow down, what’s happening? 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22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国经济可能”内爆“，在这之前还能买什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182815829","media":"美港电讯","summary":"预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前，不会达到峰值，市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。","content":"<p>通胀已经成为最近一年多市场最关心的主题，现在的问题是通胀水平会在什么时候达到峰值，留给市场的通胀交易空间还有多大。美国银行的首席投资官Michael Hartnett测算，<b><u>预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前，不会达到峰值，市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。</u></b></p>\n<p>Michael Hartnett在美国非农就业报告前表示，这是可“追逐风险的事件”（a \"highly risk-on event\"），因为在最近的12次非农报告期间，标普500指数在其中10次报告公布当天的平均涨幅达到1%。他表示，在未来几个月<b>，更重要的不是就业数据，而是薪资，</b>月平均时薪环比超过0.3%，可能会促使2022年通胀预测的新升级。</p>\n<p>根据现在的利率市场数据，利用5年期远期盈亏平衡曲线，分析师发现5年期通胀预期将在2022年1月22日达到2.7%的峰值（高于6个月前的2.0%），<b>而且这个数字可能还会上升。</b></p>\n<p>在通胀预期不断上升的背景下，未来8个多月该如何交易？Michael Hartnett认为有两种方式：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 一、长期视角，或1-2年的观点：更高的通胀率=更高的收益率=实物资产&gt;金融资产，大宗商品&gt;债券，小盘&gt;大盘，价值&gt;成长；二、战术视角，或1-2季度观点：峰值定位、政策、利润（“Positioning, Policy, Profits，3Ps”）+利率上升、监管、再分配（“rising Rates, Regulation, Redistribution 3Rs”) =未来3-6个月的低/负股票/信贷回报=做多通胀资产和价值资产。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>估值位置方面</b>，Michael Hartnett指出，最近相对于旧经济型股票，新经济新型股票遭遇了净流出，（如AARK与BRK之间的对比），“这让人想起了2000和2001年泡沫后的价格行动”。目前，以科技股为代表的新经济型股票，估值和体量受到了限制， FAAMG 5家公司的市值，相当于全球GDP排行榜上位居第三的国家GDP体量。</p>\n<p><b>政策方面</b>，好消息是，美联储一直比较友好，至今没有放出收紧的风声。不好的消息是，尽管嘴上不说，全球4大央行QE规模是在逐渐减少的。从2020年的8.5万亿美元降至2021年的3.4万亿美元，22年仅为0.4万亿美元；在今年的第二季度第三季度，“宏观经济越强，QE规模缩减越快，缩减的量越大。”</p>\n<p><b>利润方面</b>，Michael Hartnett指出，中国债券年初至今的表现优于股票，而在第二季度，30年期中国国债的表现优于纳斯达克指数。与此同时，周期性的石油表现超过黄金。不过，美国银行的全球每股收益模型（Global EPS model）显示，全球每股收益增长将达到峰值，这是未来利润最高点的最明显迹象是4月份36%的增长率。</p>\n<p>而密切跟踪ISM的SOX半导体指数也未能创出新高，即超过3300。<b>接下来几个月，随着全球经济重新开放，每股收益修正峰值随即到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>Michael Hartnett 还对债务和收益率发表了看法</b>：IMF数据表显示，自1880年以来，从公共债务占GDP的比重以及发达经济体的债券收益率关系看，收益率的大幅增长并非由债务本身（如日本）推动，而是债务在促进强劲经济增长和通胀方面取得的成功。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ac5f90849797d9fc7adde4ebe68f493\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换言之，如果拜登政府注入的数万亿债务融资刺激计划，真的转化为对GDP增长的非暂时性提振，那么所有的赌注都泡汤了。<b>如果拜登的经济刺激计划奏效，可能导致的结果可能是讽刺的：即随着美债收益率飙升，美国经济出现内爆。</b></p>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国经济可能”内爆“，在这之前还能买什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国经济可能”内爆“，在这之前还能买什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-10 22:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002899><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>通胀已经成为最近一年多市场最关心的主题，现在的问题是通胀水平会在什么时候达到峰值，留给市场的通胀交易空间还有多大。美国银行的首席投资官Michael Hartnett测算，预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前，不会达到峰值，市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。\nMichael Hartnett在美国非农就业报告前表示，这是可“追逐风险的事件”（a \"highly risk-on event\"），因为在最近...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002899\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002899","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182815829","content_text":"通胀已经成为最近一年多市场最关心的主题，现在的问题是通胀水平会在什么时候达到峰值，留给市场的通胀交易空间还有多大。美国银行的首席投资官Michael Hartnett测算，预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前，不会达到峰值，市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。\nMichael Hartnett在美国非农就业报告前表示，这是可“追逐风险的事件”（a \"highly risk-on event\"），因为在最近的12次非农报告期间，标普500指数在其中10次报告公布当天的平均涨幅达到1%。他表示，在未来几个月，更重要的不是就业数据，而是薪资，月平均时薪环比超过0.3%，可能会促使2022年通胀预测的新升级。\n根据现在的利率市场数据，利用5年期远期盈亏平衡曲线，分析师发现5年期通胀预期将在2022年1月22日达到2.7%的峰值（高于6个月前的2.0%），而且这个数字可能还会上升。\n在通胀预期不断上升的背景下，未来8个多月该如何交易？Michael Hartnett认为有两种方式：\n\n 一、长期视角，或1-2年的观点：更高的通胀率=更高的收益率=实物资产>金融资产，大宗商品>债券，小盘>大盘，价值>成长；二、战术视角，或1-2季度观点：峰值定位、政策、利润（“Positioning, Policy, Profits，3Ps”）+利率上升、监管、再分配（“rising Rates, Regulation, Redistribution 3Rs”) =未来3-6个月的低/负股票/信贷回报=做多通胀资产和价值资产。\n\n估值位置方面，Michael Hartnett指出，最近相对于旧经济型股票，新经济新型股票遭遇了净流出，（如AARK与BRK之间的对比），“这让人想起了2000和2001年泡沫后的价格行动”。目前，以科技股为代表的新经济型股票，估值和体量受到了限制， FAAMG 5家公司的市值，相当于全球GDP排行榜上位居第三的国家GDP体量。\n政策方面，好消息是，美联储一直比较友好，至今没有放出收紧的风声。不好的消息是，尽管嘴上不说，全球4大央行QE规模是在逐渐减少的。从2020年的8.5万亿美元降至2021年的3.4万亿美元，22年仅为0.4万亿美元；在今年的第二季度第三季度，“宏观经济越强，QE规模缩减越快，缩减的量越大。”\n利润方面，Michael Hartnett指出，中国债券年初至今的表现优于股票，而在第二季度，30年期中国国债的表现优于纳斯达克指数。与此同时，周期性的石油表现超过黄金。不过，美国银行的全球每股收益模型（Global EPS model）显示，全球每股收益增长将达到峰值，这是未来利润最高点的最明显迹象是4月份36%的增长率。\n而密切跟踪ISM的SOX半导体指数也未能创出新高，即超过3300。接下来几个月，随着全球经济重新开放，每股收益修正峰值随即到来。\nMichael Hartnett 还对债务和收益率发表了看法：IMF数据表显示，自1880年以来，从公共债务占GDP的比重以及发达经济体的债券收益率关系看，收益率的大幅增长并非由债务本身（如日本）推动，而是债务在促进强劲经济增长和通胀方面取得的成功。\n\n换言之，如果拜登政府注入的数万亿债务融资刺激计划，真的转化为对GDP增长的非暂时性提振，那么所有的赌注都泡汤了。如果拜登的经济刺激计划奏效，可能导致的结果可能是讽刺的：即随着美债收益率飙升，美国经济出现内爆。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190658775,"gmtCreate":1620618228397,"gmtModify":1634197643387,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"无所谓啦反正//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582704840860138\">@tw0303</a>:特斯拉品质有待提高","listText":"无所谓啦反正//<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration &amp; Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>Huston! Do you read?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration &amp; Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>Huston! Do you read?","text":"$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$Huston! Do you read?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107419334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107517832,"gmtCreate":1620521966026,"gmtModify":1634198315523,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yeeeessss, that would be our&nbsp;Cathie!!!!","listText":"yeeeessss, that would be our&nbsp;Cathie!!!!","text":"yeeeessss, that would be our Cathie!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107517832","repostId":"1161009494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104693633,"gmtCreate":1620381232122,"gmtModify":1634205643962,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"边走边看，一键清仓[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"边走边看，一键清仓[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"边走边看，一键清仓[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104693633","repostId":"1186113430","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104813528,"gmtCreate":1620373043064,"gmtModify":1634205688977,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"论取名的重要性","listText":"论取名的重要性","text":"论取名的重要性","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104813528","repostId":"2133503391","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2133503391","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620369904,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2133503391?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 14:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来、小鹏出海第一站，为何选择了挪威？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133503391","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"腾讯科技讯 5月7日消息，特斯拉的中国竞争对手蔚来正在进军挪威市场，计划在9月份向这个北欧国家出口其智能电动汽车。该公司计划今年销售ES8电动SUV，明年销售续航可达1000公里的ET7豪华电动汽车。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>科技讯 5月7日消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的中国竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>正在进军挪威市场，计划在9月份向这个北欧国家出口其<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电动汽车。该公司计划今年销售ES8电动SUV，明年销售续航可达1000公里的ET7<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>电动汽车。在此之前，电动汽车初创公司小鹏已经在去年12月下旬向挪威个人客户交付了100多辆G3智能SUV。</p>\n<p>挪威正迅速成为中国电动汽车初创企业的关键出口市场。这主要有两大原因：第一，电动汽车在挪威普及率全球最高，其纯电动汽车占新车总销量的54%以上。去年，挪威全国共售出14万多辆新乘用车，其中76789辆是纯电动汽车。在中国，尽管电动汽车去年的普及率为6%，但由于市场规模更大，年销量达117万辆。去年，中国市场共售出约1930万辆汽车。</p>\n<p>第二，在挪威，电动汽车不征收购置税和进口税。购车者还可以免交25%的增值税，而电动汽车用户可以节省至少50%的通行费。虽然挪威政府决定将零排放汽车的激励措施保留到2021年底，但也有计划修改激励措施，并根据市场发展情况进行调整。</p>\n<p>在挪威，2020年最畅销的电动汽车车型为奥迪e-tron SUV，售出了9227辆。特斯拉的Model 3以7770辆的销量位居第二，紧随其后的是大众ID.3，销量为7754辆、排在第四和第五位的分别是日产Leaf（销量为5221辆）和大众eGolf（销量为5068辆）。</p>\n<p>蔚来和小鹏将在挪威面临激烈的竞争。作为后来者，他们的成功取决于客户是否接受他们的技术和产品定价。在中国，这两家初创企业和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>被称为特斯拉的挑战者。他们在3月份总共交付了17259辆汽车，不到特斯拉35478辆销量的一半。</p>\n<p>蔚来将在挪威推出ES8 SUV、ET7豪华轿车，该公司的挑战目标是特斯拉和大众，它们是该国电动汽车领域的领头羊。但蔚来希望“电池即服务”(Baas)模式能帮助其在欧洲获得优势。该模式允许客户购买电动汽车，同时付费订阅单独的电池租赁计划。Bass可以帮助将拥有电动汽车的前期成本降低约20%。</p>\n<p>小鹏最近宣布，计划为其P7全电动轿车配备更便宜的电池，以吸引对价格敏感的客户。从本月开始，快速充电的磷酸铁锂电池将与目前正在使用的锂镍锰钴电池组共同出现在P7上，客户可自己做出选择。小鹏即将上市的P5车型将安装激光雷达传感器，使其成为首批使用该技术的汽车之一。激光雷达是自动驾驶汽车的关键技术。</p>\n<p>除了初创企业，还将有更多中国汽车公司很快扩张到欧洲，吉利就是其中之一。作为中国最大汽车制造商之一、沃尔沃母公司，吉利上月发布了其新的电动汽车品牌Zeekr。吉利已经与包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>和富士康在内的许多公司建立了合作伙伴关系，以制造智能电动汽车，这是其成为汽车行业全球领先者雄心的一部分。</p>","source":"lsy1580517846866","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来、小鹏出海第一站，为何选择了挪威？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来、小鹏出海第一站，为何选择了挪威？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 14:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/omn/20210507/20210507A064NQ00.html><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>腾讯科技讯 5月7日消息，特斯拉的中国竞争对手蔚来正在进军挪威市场，计划在9月份向这个北欧国家出口其智能电动汽车。该公司计划今年销售ES8电动SUV，明年销售续航可达1000公里的ET7豪华电动汽车。在此之前，电动汽车初创公司小鹏已经在去年12月下旬向挪威个人客户交付了100多辆G3智能SUV。\n挪威正迅速成为中国电动汽车初创企业的关键出口市场。这主要有两大原因：第一，电动汽车在挪威普及率全球最高...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210507/20210507A064NQ00.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/184ec009021ea635563e33a510a35b18","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210507/20210507A064NQ00.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133503391","content_text":"腾讯科技讯 5月7日消息，特斯拉的中国竞争对手蔚来正在进军挪威市场，计划在9月份向这个北欧国家出口其智能电动汽车。该公司计划今年销售ES8电动SUV，明年销售续航可达1000公里的ET7豪华电动汽车。在此之前，电动汽车初创公司小鹏已经在去年12月下旬向挪威个人客户交付了100多辆G3智能SUV。\n挪威正迅速成为中国电动汽车初创企业的关键出口市场。这主要有两大原因：第一，电动汽车在挪威普及率全球最高，其纯电动汽车占新车总销量的54%以上。去年，挪威全国共售出14万多辆新乘用车，其中76789辆是纯电动汽车。在中国，尽管电动汽车去年的普及率为6%，但由于市场规模更大，年销量达117万辆。去年，中国市场共售出约1930万辆汽车。\n第二，在挪威，电动汽车不征收购置税和进口税。购车者还可以免交25%的增值税，而电动汽车用户可以节省至少50%的通行费。虽然挪威政府决定将零排放汽车的激励措施保留到2021年底，但也有计划修改激励措施，并根据市场发展情况进行调整。\n在挪威，2020年最畅销的电动汽车车型为奥迪e-tron SUV，售出了9227辆。特斯拉的Model 3以7770辆的销量位居第二，紧随其后的是大众ID.3，销量为7754辆、排在第四和第五位的分别是日产Leaf（销量为5221辆）和大众eGolf（销量为5068辆）。\n蔚来和小鹏将在挪威面临激烈的竞争。作为后来者，他们的成功取决于客户是否接受他们的技术和产品定价。在中国，这两家初创企业和理想汽车被称为特斯拉的挑战者。他们在3月份总共交付了17259辆汽车，不到特斯拉35478辆销量的一半。\n蔚来将在挪威推出ES8 SUV、ET7豪华轿车，该公司的挑战目标是特斯拉和大众，它们是该国电动汽车领域的领头羊。但蔚来希望“电池即服务”(Baas)模式能帮助其在欧洲获得优势。该模式允许客户购买电动汽车，同时付费订阅单独的电池租赁计划。Bass可以帮助将拥有电动汽车的前期成本降低约20%。\n小鹏最近宣布，计划为其P7全电动轿车配备更便宜的电池，以吸引对价格敏感的客户。从本月开始，快速充电的磷酸铁锂电池将与目前正在使用的锂镍锰钴电池组共同出现在P7上，客户可自己做出选择。小鹏即将上市的P5车型将安装激光雷达传感器，使其成为首批使用该技术的汽车之一。激光雷达是自动驾驶汽车的关键技术。\n除了初创企业，还将有更多中国汽车公司很快扩张到欧洲，吉利就是其中之一。作为中国最大汽车制造商之一、沃尔沃母公司，吉利上月发布了其新的电动汽车品牌Zeekr。吉利已经与包括百度和富士康在内的许多公司建立了合作伙伴关系，以制造智能电动汽车，这是其成为汽车行业全球领先者雄心的一部分。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104155164,"gmtCreate":1620366943558,"gmtModify":1634205720093,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只是技术性调整","listText":"只是技术性调整","text":"只是技术性调整","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104155164","repostId":"1132107999","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132107999","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620366784,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132107999?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 13:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒生科技指数跌超2%，舜宇光学科技跌超7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132107999","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月7日，港股午后持续下挫，恒生指数转跌，早盘一度涨超0.8%；恒生科技指数跌超2%，舜宇光学科技跌超7%，快手-W跌超5%。近期大市缺乏明确方向，恒指上方仍面临30日、20日、10日线的阻力，后市依","content":"<p>5月7日，港股午后持续下挫，恒生指数转跌，早盘一度涨超0.8%；恒生科技指数跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">舜宇光学科技</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>跌超5%。</p><p>近期大市缺乏明确方向，恒指上方仍面临30日、20日、10日线的阻力，后市依然不甚乐观。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8deff243ff6cbb3c2fda76fe82ee575\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恒生科技指数跌超2%，舜宇光学科技跌超7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恒生科技指数跌超2%，舜宇光学科技跌超7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-07 13:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>5月7日，港股午后持续下挫，恒生指数转跌，早盘一度涨超0.8%；恒生科技指数跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02382\">舜宇光学科技</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>跌超5%。</p><p>近期大市缺乏明确方向，恒指上方仍面临30日、20日、10日线的阻力，后市依然不甚乐观。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8deff243ff6cbb3c2fda76fe82ee575\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"02382":"舜宇光学科技","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132107999","content_text":"5月7日，港股午后持续下挫，恒生指数转跌，早盘一度涨超0.8%；恒生科技指数跌超2%，舜宇光学科技跌超7%，快手-W跌超5%。近期大市缺乏明确方向，恒指上方仍面临30日、20日、10日线的阻力，后市依然不甚乐观。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104370047,"gmtCreate":1620359810889,"gmtModify":1634205776434,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"believed it or not, I am going in...","listText":"believed it or not, I am going in...","text":"believed it or not, I am going in...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104370047","repostId":"1172819387","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172819387","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1620355302,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172819387?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172819387","media":"Wind万得","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。\n由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wo","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率，但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%，5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四，该指数再次下跌，截至当日收盘，该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金，会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高，约占总资产的11%，其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票，许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资，这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报，但随着投资者的风险偏好降温，拥挤的动量交易出现逆转，此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例，该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom，Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产，是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调，许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道，投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票，在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来，分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增，高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性，而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示，流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称，这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外，分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的，而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀，该基金的流动性下降，更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯（AndrewAdams）称：“我真正的担心是，以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中，并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售，那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道：“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑，并带动其余市场，那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点，上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称，测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落，但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然，这只ETF的记录依然惊人，至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来，该ETF涨幅已超过456%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计，能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失，并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称：“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调，而在随后的风险偏好上升期，我们往往会表现出色。”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-07 10:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率，但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%，5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四，该指数再次下跌，截至当日收盘，该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金，会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高，约占总资产的11%，其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票，许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资，这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报，但随着投资者的风险偏好降温，拥挤的动量交易出现逆转，此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例，该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom，Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产，是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调，许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道，投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票，在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来，分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增，高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性，而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示，流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称，这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外，分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的，而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀，该基金的流动性下降，更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯（AndrewAdams）称：“我真正的担心是，以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中，并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售，那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道：“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑，并带动其余市场，那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点，上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称，测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落，但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然，这只ETF的记录依然惊人，至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来，该ETF涨幅已超过456%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计，能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失，并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称：“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调，而在随后的风险偏好上升期，我们往往会表现出色。”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1243a3c3332646ecb05aa2adbc87f85e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ROKU":"Roku Inc","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BIDU":"百度","ARKO":"ARKO 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Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站Zillow、虚拟会议公司Zoom以及百度等。\n\n随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票，许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多创新科技领域的投资，这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报，但随着投资者的风险偏好降温，拥挤的动量交易出现逆转，此类个股近期表现不佳。\n以特斯拉为例，该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom，Zillow和百度的股价下跌了超过8%。\n该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产，是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调，许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道，投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票，在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。\n高估值个股抛售潮料将持续\n展望未来，分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增，高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性，而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示，流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称，这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。\n此外，分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的，而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀，该基金的流动性下降，更容易遭受严重损失。\n另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯（AndrewAdams）称：“我真正的担心是，以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中，并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售，那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”\n亚当斯写道：“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑，并带动其余市场，那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点，上涨0.82%。\n亚当斯称，测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落，但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”\n诚然，这只ETF的记录依然惊人，至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来，该ETF涨幅已超过456%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计，能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失，并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称：“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调，而在随后的风险偏好上升期，我们往往会表现出色。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104344314,"gmtCreate":1620359604438,"gmtModify":1634205777681,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为感情不好还是三观不合？","listText":"因为感情不好还是三观不合？","text":"因为感情不好还是三观不合？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104344314","repostId":"1187390590","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":191815082,"gmtCreate":1620869066146,"gmtModify":1631888457379,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration &amp; Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>wowoooo! Slow down, what’s happening?&nbsp;lol","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration &amp; Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>wowoooo! Slow down, what’s happening?&nbsp;lol","text":"$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$wowoooo! Slow down, what’s happening? lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191815082","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105372057,"gmtCreate":1620274483979,"gmtModify":1634206450113,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$COIN(COIN)$</a>this week end&nbsp;we will see 250?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$COIN(COIN)$</a>this week end&nbsp;we will see 250?","text":"$COIN(COIN)$this week end we will see 250?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105372057","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":193895579,"gmtCreate":1620778723891,"gmtModify":1634196427108,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这操作！！！","listText":"这操作！！！","text":"这操作！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193895579","repostId":"2134585660","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107419334,"gmtCreate":1620528262728,"gmtModify":1631888457383,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration &amp; Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>Huston! Do you read?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKX\">$ARK Space Exploration &amp; Innovation ETF(ARKX)$</a>Huston! Do you read?","text":"$ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF(ARKX)$Huston! Do you read?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107419334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195717489,"gmtCreate":1621315567241,"gmtModify":1634192495657,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195717489","repostId":"192329953","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":192329953,"gmtCreate":1621148744872,"gmtModify":1634193720557,"author":{"id":"3579413426750982","authorId":"3579413426750982","name":"carmenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80cc1d0cc65b4923a58dcf0d330f19c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579413426750982","authorIdStr":"3579413426750982"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>i m bankrupt&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a>i m bankrupt&nbsp;","text":"$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$i m bankrupt","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27988f487123625b5de3704fc2b508dd","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192329953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107517832,"gmtCreate":1620521966026,"gmtModify":1634198315523,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yeeeessss, that would be our&nbsp;Cathie!!!!","listText":"yeeeessss, that would be our&nbsp;Cathie!!!!","text":"yeeeessss, that would be our Cathie!!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107517832","repostId":"1161009494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104370047,"gmtCreate":1620359810889,"gmtModify":1634205776434,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"believed it or not, I am going in...","listText":"believed it or not, I am going in...","text":"believed it or not, I am going in...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104370047","repostId":"1172819387","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172819387","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1620355302,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172819387?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-07 10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172819387","media":"Wind万得","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。\n由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wo","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率，但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%，5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四，该指数再次下跌，截至当日收盘，该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金，会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高，约占总资产的11%，其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票，许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资，这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报，但随着投资者的风险偏好降温，拥挤的动量交易出现逆转，此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例，该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom，Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产，是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调，许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道，投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票，在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来，分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增，高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性，而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示，流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称，这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外，分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的，而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀，该基金的流动性下降，更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯（AndrewAdams）称：“我真正的担心是，以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中，并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售，那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道：“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑，并带动其余市场，那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点，上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称，测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落，但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然，这只ETF的记录依然惊人，至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来，该ETF涨幅已超过456%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计，能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失，并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称：“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调，而在随后的风险偏好上升期，我们往往会表现出色。”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“牛市女皇”旗下基金重挫，为何会给市场带来麻烦？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-07 10:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。</p>\n<p>由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率，但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%，5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四，该指数再次下跌，截至当日收盘，该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b391a72064ea5465f406126af8e8de3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这只ETF专注于生物技术、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金，会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。</p>\n<p>该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的持股比例最高，约占总资产的11%，其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>、虚拟会议公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>以及百度等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f1cd9a349c955f212069251309920c\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票，许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">创新科技</a>领域的投资，这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报，但随着投资者的风险偏好降温，拥挤的动量交易出现逆转，此类个股近期表现不佳。</p>\n<p>以特斯拉为例，该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom，Zillow和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>的股价下跌了超过8%。</p>\n<p>该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产，是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调，许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道，投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票，在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。</p>\n<p><b>高估值个股抛售潮料将持续</b></p>\n<p>展望未来，分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增，高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性，而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示，流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称，这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。</p>\n<p>此外，分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的，而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀，该基金的流动性下降，更容易遭受严重损失。</p>\n<p>另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯（AndrewAdams）称：“我真正的担心是，以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中，并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售，那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”</p>\n<p>亚当斯写道：“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑，并带动其余市场，那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点，上涨0.82%。</p>\n<p>亚当斯称，测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落，但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”</p>\n<p>诚然，这只ETF的记录依然惊人，至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来，该ETF涨幅已超过456%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计，能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失，并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称：“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调，而在随后的风险偏好上升期，我们往往会表现出色。”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1243a3c3332646ecb05aa2adbc87f85e","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ROKU":"Roku Inc","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BIDU":"百度","ARKO":"ARKO Corp","ZM":"Zoom","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","Z":"Zillow","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172819387","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，随着明星成长股纷纷回调，最热门的成长股ETF也开始大幅下滑。分析师表示，如果此类热门基金抛售加剧，标普500指数将测试4000点下方。\n由“牛市女皇”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）管理的ARK创新ETF在2020年实现了近150%的回报率，但它现在正在迅速放弃这些收益。这只ETF自2月高点已回撤逾30%，5月以来已下跌10.47%。周四，该指数再次下跌，截至当日收盘，该ETF跌3.07%至108.13美元。\n\n这只ETF专注于生物技术、机器人、人工智能、区块链和金融技术等领域的“颠覆性创新”股票。这是一只集中的主题型基金，会随少数高增长股票价格大幅波动。\n该基金的前10大资产占其投资组合的近一半。特斯拉的持股比例最高，约占总资产的11%，其次是美国移动支付公司Square、医疗企业Teladoc Health和流媒体平台Roku。排名前10位的公司还包括美国房地产信息查询网站Zillow、虚拟会议公司Zoom以及百度等。\n\n随着市场板块轮动从高增长、高倍数股票转向价值型和周期性股票，许多此类股票都出现了暴跌。尽管该ETF提供了对许多创新科技领域的投资，这些领域可能在长期会带来超额回报，但随着投资者的风险偏好降温，拥挤的动量交易出现逆转，此类个股近期表现不佳。\n以特斯拉为例，该公司5月以来已跌逾6%。Zoom，Zillow和百度的股价下跌了超过8%。\n该ETF仍然拥有210亿美元的资产，是最大的主动管理型ETF之一。但随着高估值个股回调，许多投资者纷纷撤离该基金。据《巴伦周刊》报道，投资者在过去一周赎回了7.7亿美元的股票，在过去一个月赎回了8.66亿美元的股票。\n高估值个股抛售潮料将持续\n展望未来，分析师对ARK创新ETF的未来持谨慎态度。随着人们对通胀的担忧与日俱增，高估值企业变得更难证明其合理性，而前期的强劲涨势也让许多投资者选择获利了结。Bear Traps Report显示，流入该ETF的资金大部分来自过去9个月。报告称，这意味着该ETF目前有50%的资金处于亏损状态。\n此外，分析师的悲观预期也来自于ARK创新ETF的投资风格。凯茜·伍德的投资风格是从自下而上选股的角度来看待风险的，而不是试图模拟各种市场条件下整体投资组合的风险敞口。随着ETF资产基础的膨胀，该基金的流动性下降，更容易遭受严重损失。\n另一部分人则担心该基金对市场造成的影响。Saut Strategy的安德鲁·亚当斯（AndrewAdams）称：“我真正的担心是，以ARK和许多类似基金为代表的高增长区域正处于大幅抛售的危险中，并有可能造成瀑布式下跌。如果这些更具投机性的领域共同开始抛售，那对市场来说不是一个好现象。”\n亚当斯写道：“如果高增长股票开始打破支撑，并带动其余市场，那么标准普尔500指数在3,980-4,000区域终将受到重新测试。”标普500指数周四收于4,201.62点，上涨0.82%。\n亚当斯称，测试3,980-4,000区域的支撑位只会标志着5%至6%的回落，但鉴于美股市场的损失会在其他领域造成更严重亏损。“我宁愿避免这种情况。”\n诚然，这只ETF的记录依然惊人，至少对那些赶上这股上涨浪潮的投资者来说是如此。自2017年年底以来，该ETF涨幅已超过456%，而同期标普500指数的涨幅为88%。ARK的客户投资组合经理雷纳托•莱吉(Renato Leggi)预计，能源和金融等行业的周期性轮动将会消失，并表示这些行业在长期内尤其“容易受到干扰”。他补充称：“我们的表现往往会在风险规避期回调，而在随后的风险偏好上升期，我们往往会表现出色。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196885697,"gmtCreate":1621042398619,"gmtModify":1634194376388,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK OK","listText":"OK OK","text":"OK OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196885697","repostId":"1164480285","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198547027,"gmtCreate":1620974960669,"gmtModify":1634194830082,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"该好好整顿","listText":"该好好整顿","text":"该好好整顿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198547027","repostId":"1161975291","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":199185655,"gmtCreate":1620691448177,"gmtModify":1634197144751,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"内爆是啥意思","listText":"内爆是啥意思","text":"内爆是啥意思","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199185655","repostId":"1182815829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182815829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620655587,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182815829?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 22:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国经济可能”内爆“，在这之前还能买什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182815829","media":"美港电讯","summary":"预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前，不会达到峰值，市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。","content":"<p>通胀已经成为最近一年多市场最关心的主题，现在的问题是通胀水平会在什么时候达到峰值，留给市场的通胀交易空间还有多大。美国银行的首席投资官Michael Hartnett测算，<b><u>预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前，不会达到峰值，市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。</u></b></p>\n<p>Michael Hartnett在美国非农就业报告前表示，这是可“追逐风险的事件”（a \"highly risk-on event\"），因为在最近的12次非农报告期间，标普500指数在其中10次报告公布当天的平均涨幅达到1%。他表示，在未来几个月<b>，更重要的不是就业数据，而是薪资，</b>月平均时薪环比超过0.3%，可能会促使2022年通胀预测的新升级。</p>\n<p>根据现在的利率市场数据，利用5年期远期盈亏平衡曲线，分析师发现5年期通胀预期将在2022年1月22日达到2.7%的峰值（高于6个月前的2.0%），<b>而且这个数字可能还会上升。</b></p>\n<p>在通胀预期不断上升的背景下，未来8个多月该如何交易？Michael Hartnett认为有两种方式：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 一、长期视角，或1-2年的观点：更高的通胀率=更高的收益率=实物资产&gt;金融资产，大宗商品&gt;债券，小盘&gt;大盘，价值&gt;成长；二、战术视角，或1-2季度观点：峰值定位、政策、利润（“Positioning, Policy, Profits，3Ps”）+利率上升、监管、再分配（“rising Rates, Regulation, Redistribution 3Rs”) =未来3-6个月的低/负股票/信贷回报=做多通胀资产和价值资产。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>估值位置方面</b>，Michael Hartnett指出，最近相对于旧经济型股票，新经济新型股票遭遇了净流出，（如AARK与BRK之间的对比），“这让人想起了2000和2001年泡沫后的价格行动”。目前，以科技股为代表的新经济型股票，估值和体量受到了限制， FAAMG 5家公司的市值，相当于全球GDP排行榜上位居第三的国家GDP体量。</p>\n<p><b>政策方面</b>，好消息是，美联储一直比较友好，至今没有放出收紧的风声。不好的消息是，尽管嘴上不说，全球4大央行QE规模是在逐渐减少的。从2020年的8.5万亿美元降至2021年的3.4万亿美元，22年仅为0.4万亿美元；在今年的第二季度第三季度，“宏观经济越强，QE规模缩减越快，缩减的量越大。”</p>\n<p><b>利润方面</b>，Michael Hartnett指出，中国债券年初至今的表现优于股票，而在第二季度，30年期中国国债的表现优于纳斯达克指数。与此同时，周期性的石油表现超过黄金。不过，美国银行的全球每股收益模型（Global EPS model）显示，全球每股收益增长将达到峰值，这是未来利润最高点的最明显迹象是4月份36%的增长率。</p>\n<p>而密切跟踪ISM的SOX半导体指数也未能创出新高，即超过3300。<b>接下来几个月，随着全球经济重新开放，每股收益修正峰值随即到来。</b></p>\n<p><b>Michael Hartnett 还对债务和收益率发表了看法</b>：IMF数据表显示，自1880年以来，从公共债务占GDP的比重以及发达经济体的债券收益率关系看，收益率的大幅增长并非由债务本身（如日本）推动，而是债务在促进强劲经济增长和通胀方面取得的成功。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ac5f90849797d9fc7adde4ebe68f493\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换言之，如果拜登政府注入的数万亿债务融资刺激计划，真的转化为对GDP增长的非暂时性提振，那么所有的赌注都泡汤了。<b>如果拜登的经济刺激计划奏效，可能导致的结果可能是讽刺的：即随着美债收益率飙升，美国经济出现内爆。</b></p>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国经济可能”内爆“，在这之前还能买什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国经济可能”内爆“，在这之前还能买什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-10 22:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002899><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>通胀已经成为最近一年多市场最关心的主题，现在的问题是通胀水平会在什么时候达到峰值，留给市场的通胀交易空间还有多大。美国银行的首席投资官Michael Hartnett测算，预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前，不会达到峰值，市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。\nMichael Hartnett在美国非农就业报告前表示，这是可“追逐风险的事件”（a \"highly risk-on event\"），因为在最近...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002899\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1002899","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182815829","content_text":"通胀已经成为最近一年多市场最关心的主题，现在的问题是通胀水平会在什么时候达到峰值，留给市场的通胀交易空间还有多大。美国银行的首席投资官Michael Hartnett测算，预计通胀水平在2022年1月之前，不会达到峰值，市场在未来的8个月内还大有可为。\nMichael Hartnett在美国非农就业报告前表示，这是可“追逐风险的事件”（a \"highly risk-on event\"），因为在最近的12次非农报告期间，标普500指数在其中10次报告公布当天的平均涨幅达到1%。他表示，在未来几个月，更重要的不是就业数据，而是薪资，月平均时薪环比超过0.3%，可能会促使2022年通胀预测的新升级。\n根据现在的利率市场数据，利用5年期远期盈亏平衡曲线，分析师发现5年期通胀预期将在2022年1月22日达到2.7%的峰值（高于6个月前的2.0%），而且这个数字可能还会上升。\n在通胀预期不断上升的背景下，未来8个多月该如何交易？Michael Hartnett认为有两种方式：\n\n 一、长期视角，或1-2年的观点：更高的通胀率=更高的收益率=实物资产>金融资产，大宗商品>债券，小盘>大盘，价值>成长；二、战术视角，或1-2季度观点：峰值定位、政策、利润（“Positioning, Policy, Profits，3Ps”）+利率上升、监管、再分配（“rising Rates, Regulation, Redistribution 3Rs”) =未来3-6个月的低/负股票/信贷回报=做多通胀资产和价值资产。\n\n估值位置方面，Michael Hartnett指出，最近相对于旧经济型股票，新经济新型股票遭遇了净流出，（如AARK与BRK之间的对比），“这让人想起了2000和2001年泡沫后的价格行动”。目前，以科技股为代表的新经济型股票，估值和体量受到了限制， FAAMG 5家公司的市值，相当于全球GDP排行榜上位居第三的国家GDP体量。\n政策方面，好消息是，美联储一直比较友好，至今没有放出收紧的风声。不好的消息是，尽管嘴上不说，全球4大央行QE规模是在逐渐减少的。从2020年的8.5万亿美元降至2021年的3.4万亿美元，22年仅为0.4万亿美元；在今年的第二季度第三季度，“宏观经济越强，QE规模缩减越快，缩减的量越大。”\n利润方面，Michael Hartnett指出，中国债券年初至今的表现优于股票，而在第二季度，30年期中国国债的表现优于纳斯达克指数。与此同时，周期性的石油表现超过黄金。不过，美国银行的全球每股收益模型（Global EPS model）显示，全球每股收益增长将达到峰值，这是未来利润最高点的最明显迹象是4月份36%的增长率。\n而密切跟踪ISM的SOX半导体指数也未能创出新高，即超过3300。接下来几个月，随着全球经济重新开放，每股收益修正峰值随即到来。\nMichael Hartnett 还对债务和收益率发表了看法：IMF数据表显示，自1880年以来，从公共债务占GDP的比重以及发达经济体的债券收益率关系看，收益率的大幅增长并非由债务本身（如日本）推动，而是债务在促进强劲经济增长和通胀方面取得的成功。\n\n换言之，如果拜登政府注入的数万亿债务融资刺激计划，真的转化为对GDP增长的非暂时性提振，那么所有的赌注都泡汤了。如果拜登的经济刺激计划奏效，可能导致的结果可能是讽刺的：即随着美债收益率飙升，美国经济出现内爆。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104344314,"gmtCreate":1620359604438,"gmtModify":1634205777681,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为感情不好还是三观不合？","listText":"因为感情不好还是三观不合？","text":"因为感情不好还是三观不合？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104344314","repostId":"1187390590","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":100878806,"gmtCreate":1619604301405,"gmtModify":1634211415483,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看不懂了[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"看不懂了[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"看不懂了[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100878806","repostId":"2130473372","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197922103,"gmtCreate":1621421720802,"gmtModify":1634189296256,"author":{"id":"3582619021047705","authorId":"3582619021047705","name":"gwp0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af1bb83b5cc677b31517836f77e1dc0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582619021047705","authorIdStr":"3582619021047705"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wake up&nbsp;","listText":"Wake up&nbsp;","text":"Wake up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197922103","repostId":"1121400739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121400739","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1621418404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121400739?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利：醒醒吧，涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121400739","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期，摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀，尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n\n“美国木材猛涨，价格狂涨两倍”“","content":"<blockquote>\n 别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀，尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n</blockquote>\n<p>“美国木材猛涨，价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀？”……近期，美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地，市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。</p>\n<p>美联储已明确表示，相比于通胀数据，他们更关注通胀预期。当前，市场对于美国未来一年的通胀率预期与过去的CPI高点保持一致。如果CPI将来保持在目前的较高水平，那么再往前一年时间的通胀预期也仍将保持在差不多的水准上。</p>\n<p>然而，摩根士丹利却持相反的观点。他们预计，随着时间向着年底推移，美国CPI同比增速将会呈现放缓态势，或许会从4月份的4.2%放缓至3.2%，明年可能进一步放慢到2.5%。预计通胀预期也会随之缩减。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4280e1ea0c4e026496c0f947ba6471a2\" tg-width=\"1226\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>基于这种通胀预期，摩根士丹利认为，很多市场人士预计中的美联储可能很快收紧政策的想法不会成为现实，美联储通常不会一看到通胀数据飙高就赶紧收回政策压制通胀，而是需要时间来确信实际通胀数据确实稳稳地站在2%目标水位上方，</p>\n<p>而且，非农就业等其他经济指标也要配合，不能仅仅凭借通胀指标就来决定要不要调整货币政策。</p>\n<p>投资者也需要有耐心。摩根士丹利认为，关于高通胀、以及美联储是否释放政策调整信号，等到秋天可能就会出现明确的答案了。</p>\n<p><b>高通胀会带来强美元？</b></p>\n<p>眼看着通胀数据一个比一个高出市场预期，市场第一时间的反应之一就是美元走强。尽管拉涨的势头并不持久，但这至少说明了市场当时在担心美联储可能很快以收紧政策来应对高通胀。</p>\n<p>那么，高通胀带来的结果之一真的是强美元吗？摩根士丹利的答案又一次与很多市场人士不同：并不必然。</p>\n<p>这家银行的分析师们认为，美联储至少在短期内将维持按兵不动，继续对外释放偏鸽派立场，尤其是在就业市场和零售数据还时不时让人失望的时候。这将给美元带来下行压力。</p>\n<p>不过摩根士丹利还表示，一旦美联储今年秋天开始释放出缩减QE的信息，那么通胀预期会减淡，美元的画风也会随之改变，汇率将在年底前走高。</p>\n<p>分析师们表示，从长期角度看，如果一个国家相对于其国际贸易伙伴国呈现出持续的高通胀，则将侵蚀本币的名义价值。即使在一年的时间框架内，通胀差异与汇率走势之间似乎也存在着合理的相关性。</p>\n<p>就过去多年的历史表现而言，每当美国通胀明显高于其他国家时，美元指数的上涨幅度往往没有通胀数据那么大。下图大体上能够呈现出二者的一些相关性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89ba861b62869a841bc6275b48ba1d9\" tg-width=\"1277\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>别只看通胀数据，美联储的淡定是老传统了</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利还提到了另外一个历史规律：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 在一个央行拥有公信力的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致市场产生货币紧缩的预期，从而导致本币汇率走强；而在一个央行公信力没那么高的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致人们担心央行会允许其继续走高，从而导致货币汇率疲软。\n</blockquote>\n<p>偏偏美联储的情况比较特别：这么多年来，美联储往往都走在通胀曲线的后面，官员们经常让通胀的“子弹再飞一会儿”。直到现在，他们也还认为，名义通胀率得在2%的目标水平上保持的足够久，才会考虑收紧政策。</p>\n<p>基于这种规律，摩根士丹利认为，当美国通胀率高于市场预期，应当可以想象到美元的反应是走弱，而非走强，因为市场应该能预计到美联储的鸽派立场大概率不会短期内就改变。</p>\n<p>那如何解释最新的美国通胀指标高于预期之后，美元指数当时走高了呢？摩根士丹利解释说，这极有可能是因为投资者们倾向于认为，美联储将需要很快接受不同于以往的策略，去收紧政策，因为目前通胀实在是太高了。</p>\n<p>如果这种解释确实是事实，投资者真是这么想的，摩根士丹利对于这种市场观点持反驳立场。他们认为，美联储大概率维持当前的观点，理由就是劳动力市场还不是特别好，零售销售数据和消费者信心也没有预期的那么强劲。</p>\n<p>换句话说，通胀数据并非美联储唯一考虑的因素。</p>\n<p>“有基于此，美元可能还会进一步走低。”摩根士丹利在研报中写道。</p>\n<p><b>到秋天，美联储可能才会行动起来</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利建议投资者耐心地等待秋季的到来。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 到那时，美国经济复苏应当会取得更多进展，理论上会有更多数据显示出通胀压力确实具有持续性，到底会不会削减QE这个疑问也会慢慢清晰起来，那才会推高美元。\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b9cef6917b49eee6479d1e25288e72\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根士丹利：醒醒吧，涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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class=\"title\">\n摩根士丹利：醒醒吧，涨价和通胀只是市场的幻觉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-05-19 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期，摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀，尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n\n“美国木材猛涨，价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀？”……近期，美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地，市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。\n美联储已明确表示，相比于通胀数据，他们更关注通胀预期。当前，市场对于美国未来一年的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121400739","content_text":"别以为通胀会一直明显高于市场预期，摩根士丹利预计CPI可能还会放缓。美联储也不会急于收紧政策以控制通胀，尤其是就业和零售数据还差强人意的时候。让“子弹再飞一会儿”。\n\n“美国木材猛涨，价格狂涨两倍”“美国是否会重演1970式大通胀？”……近期，美国正走向高通胀的消息铺天盖地，市场也基于这种预期反复炒作周期性板块。\n美联储已明确表示，相比于通胀数据，他们更关注通胀预期。当前，市场对于美国未来一年的通胀率预期与过去的CPI高点保持一致。如果CPI将来保持在目前的较高水平，那么再往前一年时间的通胀预期也仍将保持在差不多的水准上。\n然而，摩根士丹利却持相反的观点。他们预计，随着时间向着年底推移，美国CPI同比增速将会呈现放缓态势，或许会从4月份的4.2%放缓至3.2%，明年可能进一步放慢到2.5%。预计通胀预期也会随之缩减。\n\n基于这种通胀预期，摩根士丹利认为，很多市场人士预计中的美联储可能很快收紧政策的想法不会成为现实，美联储通常不会一看到通胀数据飙高就赶紧收回政策压制通胀，而是需要时间来确信实际通胀数据确实稳稳地站在2%目标水位上方，\n而且，非农就业等其他经济指标也要配合，不能仅仅凭借通胀指标就来决定要不要调整货币政策。\n投资者也需要有耐心。摩根士丹利认为，关于高通胀、以及美联储是否释放政策调整信号，等到秋天可能就会出现明确的答案了。\n高通胀会带来强美元？\n眼看着通胀数据一个比一个高出市场预期，市场第一时间的反应之一就是美元走强。尽管拉涨的势头并不持久，但这至少说明了市场当时在担心美联储可能很快以收紧政策来应对高通胀。\n那么，高通胀带来的结果之一真的是强美元吗？摩根士丹利的答案又一次与很多市场人士不同：并不必然。\n这家银行的分析师们认为，美联储至少在短期内将维持按兵不动，继续对外释放偏鸽派立场，尤其是在就业市场和零售数据还时不时让人失望的时候。这将给美元带来下行压力。\n不过摩根士丹利还表示，一旦美联储今年秋天开始释放出缩减QE的信息，那么通胀预期会减淡，美元的画风也会随之改变，汇率将在年底前走高。\n分析师们表示，从长期角度看，如果一个国家相对于其国际贸易伙伴国呈现出持续的高通胀，则将侵蚀本币的名义价值。即使在一年的时间框架内，通胀差异与汇率走势之间似乎也存在着合理的相关性。\n就过去多年的历史表现而言，每当美国通胀明显高于其他国家时，美元指数的上涨幅度往往没有通胀数据那么大。下图大体上能够呈现出二者的一些相关性。\n\n别只看通胀数据，美联储的淡定是老传统了\n摩根士丹利还提到了另外一个历史规律：\n\n 在一个央行拥有公信力的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致市场产生货币紧缩的预期，从而导致本币汇率走强；而在一个央行公信力没那么高的经济体中，通胀走高可能导致人们担心央行会允许其继续走高，从而导致货币汇率疲软。\n\n偏偏美联储的情况比较特别：这么多年来，美联储往往都走在通胀曲线的后面，官员们经常让通胀的“子弹再飞一会儿”。直到现在，他们也还认为，名义通胀率得在2%的目标水平上保持的足够久，才会考虑收紧政策。\n基于这种规律，摩根士丹利认为，当美国通胀率高于市场预期，应当可以想象到美元的反应是走弱，而非走强，因为市场应该能预计到美联储的鸽派立场大概率不会短期内就改变。\n那如何解释最新的美国通胀指标高于预期之后，美元指数当时走高了呢？摩根士丹利解释说，这极有可能是因为投资者们倾向于认为，美联储将需要很快接受不同于以往的策略，去收紧政策，因为目前通胀实在是太高了。\n如果这种解释确实是事实，投资者真是这么想的，摩根士丹利对于这种市场观点持反驳立场。他们认为，美联储大概率维持当前的观点，理由就是劳动力市场还不是特别好，零售销售数据和消费者信心也没有预期的那么强劲。\n换句话说，通胀数据并非美联储唯一考虑的因素。\n“有基于此，美元可能还会进一步走低。”摩根士丹利在研报中写道。\n到秋天，美联储可能才会行动起来\n摩根士丹利建议投资者耐心地等待秋季的到来。\n\n 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