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JilQ

JilQ

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2021-07-01

Ok but wasn’t there a post here a few days ago about a coming market crash...?buy now or wait?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-30

Crypto coins have potential for the global market

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2021-06-24

Still not keen on this counter yet

Amazon's Planned Purchase Of MGM To Be Reviewed By FTC - WSJ<blockquote>亚马逊收购米高梅的计划将接受FTC审查-华尔街日报</blockquote>

2021-06-21

Rising spending....

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-20

[OK]

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>

2021-06-20

Recommend more good buys please

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2021-06-20

I may give Amazon a little thought now

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2021-06-20

Apple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks confirmed my hesitation

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2021-06-19

I’m waiting for good IPOs

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2021-06-19

Good story thanks

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2021-06-19

That long?? Zzzz

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2021-06-18

Abbvie sounds interesting. Anyone recommends this?

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2021-06-18

Hmmm I’ll consider one of these

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2021-06-18

[OK]

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2021-06-18

I’m still unsure of this counter

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-18

I’m seeing red on my watchlist

Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>

2021-06-18

Buy?

Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>

2021-06-18

[OK]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

Nvda too high to buy now?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

Good information

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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but wasn’t there a post here a few days ago about a coming market crash...?buy now or wait?","listText":"Ok but wasn’t there a post here a few days ago about a coming market crash...?buy now or wait?","text":"Ok but wasn’t there a post here a few days ago about a coming market crash...?buy now or wait?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151715560","repostId":"1110936297","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153220795,"gmtCreate":1625028507617,"gmtModify":1633945650193,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crypto coins have potential for the global market&nbsp;","listText":"Crypto coins have potential for the global market&nbsp;","text":"Crypto coins have potential for the global market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153220795","repostId":"1153621389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128946881,"gmtCreate":1624499525343,"gmtModify":1634005225220,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still not keen on this counter yet","listText":"Still not keen on this counter yet","text":"Still not keen on this counter yet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128946881","repostId":"2145063928","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2145063928","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1624379783,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145063928?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 00:36","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Amazon's Planned Purchase Of MGM To Be Reviewed By FTC - WSJ<blockquote>亚马逊收购米高梅的计划将接受FTC审查-华尔街日报</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145063928","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"June 22 (Reuters) - :Amazon’S Planned Purchase Of Mgm To Be Reviewed By Ftc - Wsj.Further Company Co","content":"<p><html><body>June 22 (Reuters) - :Amazon’S Planned Purchase Of Mgm To Be Reviewed By Ftc - Wsj.Further Company Coverage: Amzn.O. 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((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透6月22日-：亚马逊收购米高梅的计划将接受FTC-WSJ审查。更多公司报道：Amzn.O.（（Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com；））。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09086":"华夏纳指-U","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03086":"华夏纳指","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145063928","content_text":"June 22 (Reuters) - :Amazon’S Planned Purchase Of Mgm To Be Reviewed By Ftc - Wsj.Further Company Coverage: Amzn.O. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"QNETCN":0.6,"03086":0.6,"09086":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167950509,"gmtCreate":1624243685901,"gmtModify":1634008983038,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rising spending....","listText":"Rising spending....","text":"Rising spending....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167950509","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164953008,"gmtCreate":1624167385304,"gmtModify":1634009881976,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164953008","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164924355,"gmtCreate":1624167128677,"gmtModify":1634009885874,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recommend more good buys please&nbsp;","listText":"Recommend more good buys please&nbsp;","text":"Recommend more good buys please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164924355","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164923371,"gmtCreate":1624166771493,"gmtModify":1634009891327,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I may give&nbsp;Amazon a little thought now","listText":"I may give&nbsp;Amazon a little thought now","text":"I may give Amazon a little thought now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164923371","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164985385,"gmtCreate":1624165822247,"gmtModify":1634009905212,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks confirmed my hesitation&nbsp;","listText":"Apple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks confirmed my hesitation&nbsp;","text":"Apple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks confirmed my hesitation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164985385","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162760124,"gmtCreate":1624075948668,"gmtModify":1634010993392,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I’m waiting for good IPOs","listText":"I’m waiting for good IPOs","text":"I’m waiting for good IPOs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162760124","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162784127,"gmtCreate":1624075870369,"gmtModify":1634010995203,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good story thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Good story thanks&nbsp;","text":"Good story thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162784127","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162625673,"gmtCreate":1624062324792,"gmtModify":1634023442402,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That long?? Zzzz&nbsp;","listText":"That long?? Zzzz&nbsp;","text":"That long?? Zzzz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162625673","repostId":"1111305468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166710868,"gmtCreate":1624024950154,"gmtModify":1631888086188,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Abbvie sounds interesting. Anyone recommends this?","listText":"Abbvie sounds interesting. Anyone recommends this?","text":"Abbvie sounds interesting. Anyone recommends this?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166710868","repostId":"2144775875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4087121884330270","authorId":"4087121884330270","name":"CJH_1908","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02b970a8bf3c0a4b052d39f7bef8b8e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087121884330270","idStr":"4087121884330270"},"content":"I suggest that you can pay attention to some stocks in the EV industry, and you will have more opportunities, such as BYD or Geely Auto","text":"I suggest that you can pay attention to some stocks in the EV industry, and you will have more opportunities, such as BYD or Geely Auto","html":"I suggest that you can pay attention to some stocks in the EV industry, and you will have more opportunities, such as BYD or Geely Auto"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166479734,"gmtCreate":1624023974228,"gmtModify":1631883986762,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm I’ll consider one of these&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmm I’ll consider one of these&nbsp;","text":"Hmmm I’ll consider one of these","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166479734","repostId":"2143379379","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166447358,"gmtCreate":1624023892874,"gmtModify":1634023960225,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166447358","repostId":"2143794095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166449763,"gmtCreate":1624023732052,"gmtModify":1634023965426,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I’m still unsure of this counter","listText":"I’m still unsure of this counter","text":"I’m still unsure of this counter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166449763","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166458516,"gmtCreate":1624023565835,"gmtModify":1634023969168,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I’m seeing red on my watchlist&nbsp;","listText":"I’m seeing red on my watchlist&nbsp;","text":"I’m seeing red on my watchlist","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166458516","repostId":"1118271544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118271544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624023029,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118271544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118271544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week sinc","content":"<p>U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数有望创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周，美联储最新政策更新后，银行股领跌市场。</blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股平均指数下跌400点，本周迄今跌幅达到2.8%。标普500下跌0.8%，本周跌幅超过1%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>股市扩大跌幅。路易斯联储主席Jim Bullard在CNBC上表示，美联储本周倾向于稍微“鹰派”是很自然的，央行首次加息可能会在2022年进行。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午，美联储在2023年预测中增加了两次加息，并上调了今年的通胀预测，华尔街出现下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，美联储的行动导致所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短端收益率的跃升则显示了对美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> This phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象正在损害银行股，特别是当短期和长期利率之间的利差缩小时，银行盈利可能会受到打击。高盛股价周五下跌超过1%，摩根大通和摩根士丹利也出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> \"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“投资者可能将美联储周三的鹰派倾向解读为一个迹象，表明在可能出现的货币政策不太宽松的环境下，美国大流行后经济扩张可能更难实现。”</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week&nbsp;as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国试图冷却不断上涨的物价和美元走强，大多数大宗商品价格在本周大幅下跌后，周五略有反弹。铜、黄金和铂的期货价格周五反弹，但本周仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现良好的芯片股周五似乎将继续上涨，英伟达股价上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和收入超出预期后，Adobe股价上涨约3%。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数有望创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周，美联储最新政策更新后，银行股领跌市场。</blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股平均指数下跌400点，本周迄今跌幅达到2.8%。标普500下跌0.8%，本周跌幅超过1%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>股市扩大跌幅。路易斯联储主席Jim Bullard在CNBC上表示，美联储本周倾向于稍微“鹰派”是很自然的，央行首次加息可能会在2022年进行。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午，美联储在2023年预测中增加了两次加息，并上调了今年的通胀预测，华尔街出现下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，美联储的行动导致所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短端收益率的跃升则显示了对美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> This phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象正在损害银行股，特别是当短期和长期利率之间的利差缩小时，银行盈利可能会受到打击。高盛股价周五下跌超过1%，摩根大通和摩根士丹利也出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> \"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“投资者可能将美联储周三的鹰派倾向解读为一个迹象，表明在可能出现的货币政策不太宽松的环境下，美国大流行后经济扩张可能更难实现。”</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week&nbsp;as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国试图冷却不断上涨的物价和美元走强，大多数大宗商品价格在本周大幅下跌后，周五略有反弹。铜、黄金和铂的期货价格周五反弹，但本周仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现良好的芯片股周五似乎将继续上涨，英伟达股价上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和收入超出预期后，Adobe股价上涨约3%。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118271544","content_text":"U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.\nThe blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.\nStocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.\nWall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.\nThe decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell. The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.\nThis phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.\n\"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.\nMost commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.\nChip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.\nAdobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.\nFriday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166630886,"gmtCreate":1624005211445,"gmtModify":1634024241755,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy?","listText":"Buy?","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166630886","repostId":"1142916683","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142916683","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624003342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142916683?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142916683","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading.\nOrphazyme slashed its financial foreca","content":"<p>Orphazyme&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;60% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b722b82c7d6ab2a6fcc7364eb2517b7f\" tg-width=\"1293\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.</p><p><blockquote>在美国卫生监管机构拒绝其关键候选药物后，Orphazyme周五大幅下调了财务预测。</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme表示，其申请FDA批准arimoclomol（一种治疗遗传性疾病尼曼-皮克病C型的药物）的申请尚未成功。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司预计今年的收入将低于此前预期，运营亏损将大幅扩大，迫使该公司削减成本。</blockquote></p><p> \"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>经纪商Nordnet在给客户的一份报告中写道：“Orphazyme没有钱，也没有实质性的项目……投资者将资金投入到‘模因倾向’驱动的完全不切实际的场景中。”</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.</p><p><blockquote>在哥本哈根和纽约上市的Orphazyme目前预计2021年的运营亏损为6.70-7亿克朗（107-1.12亿美元），而此前的预测为亏损100-1.5亿克朗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOrphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 16:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Orphazyme&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;60% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b722b82c7d6ab2a6fcc7364eb2517b7f\" tg-width=\"1293\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.</p><p><blockquote>在美国卫生监管机构拒绝其关键候选药物后，Orphazyme周五大幅下调了财务预测。</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme表示，其申请FDA批准arimoclomol（一种治疗遗传性疾病尼曼-皮克病C型的药物）的申请尚未成功。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司预计今年的收入将低于此前预期，运营亏损将大幅扩大，迫使该公司削减成本。</blockquote></p><p> \"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>经纪商Nordnet在给客户的一份报告中写道：“Orphazyme没有钱，也没有实质性的项目……投资者将资金投入到‘模因倾向’驱动的完全不切实际的场景中。”</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.</p><p><blockquote>在哥本哈根和纽约上市的Orphazyme目前预计2021年的运营亏损为6.70-7亿克朗（107-1.12亿美元），而此前的预测为亏损100-1.5亿克朗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142916683","content_text":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading.\nOrphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.\nOrphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.\nAs a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.\n\"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.\nOrphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORPH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166124267,"gmtCreate":1623998012659,"gmtModify":1634024353200,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166124267","repostId":"1150591447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166379884,"gmtCreate":1623994015648,"gmtModify":1634024410461,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nvda too high to buy now?","listText":"Nvda too high to buy now?","text":"Nvda too high to buy now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166379884","repostId":"2143784913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166342456,"gmtCreate":1623993858875,"gmtModify":1634024414696,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585275877804031","idStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good information&nbsp;","listText":"Good information&nbsp;","text":"Good information","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166342456","repostId":"2143784913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":166710868,"gmtCreate":1624024950154,"gmtModify":1631888086188,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Abbvie sounds interesting. Anyone recommends this?","listText":"Abbvie sounds interesting. Anyone recommends this?","text":"Abbvie sounds interesting. Anyone recommends this?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166710868","repostId":"2144775875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4087121884330270","authorId":"4087121884330270","name":"CJH_1908","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c02b970a8bf3c0a4b052d39f7bef8b8e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087121884330270","authorIdStr":"4087121884330270"},"content":"I suggest that you can pay attention to some stocks in the EV industry, and you will have more opportunities, such as BYD or Geely Auto","text":"I suggest that you can pay attention to some stocks in the EV industry, and you will have more opportunities, such as BYD or Geely Auto","html":"I suggest that you can pay attention to some stocks in the EV industry, and you will have more opportunities, such as BYD or Geely Auto"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151715560,"gmtCreate":1625106687450,"gmtModify":1633944717764,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok but wasn’t there a post here a few days ago about a coming market crash...?buy now or wait?","listText":"Ok but wasn’t there a post here a few days ago about a coming market crash...?buy now or wait?","text":"Ok but wasn’t there a post here a few days ago about a coming market crash...?buy now or wait?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151715560","repostId":"1110936297","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164985385,"gmtCreate":1624165822247,"gmtModify":1634009905212,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks confirmed my hesitation&nbsp;","listText":"Apple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks confirmed my hesitation&nbsp;","text":"Apple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks confirmed my hesitation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164985385","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153220795,"gmtCreate":1625028507617,"gmtModify":1633945650193,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crypto coins have potential for the global market&nbsp;","listText":"Crypto coins have potential for the global market&nbsp;","text":"Crypto coins have potential for the global market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153220795","repostId":"1153621389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167950509,"gmtCreate":1624243685901,"gmtModify":1634008983038,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rising spending....","listText":"Rising spending....","text":"Rising spending....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167950509","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164924355,"gmtCreate":1624167128677,"gmtModify":1634009885874,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recommend more good buys please&nbsp;","listText":"Recommend more good buys please&nbsp;","text":"Recommend more good buys please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164924355","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162784127,"gmtCreate":1624075870369,"gmtModify":1634010995203,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good story thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Good story thanks&nbsp;","text":"Good story thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162784127","repostId":"1161408410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164953008,"gmtCreate":1624167385304,"gmtModify":1634009881976,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164953008","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166458516,"gmtCreate":1624023565835,"gmtModify":1634023969168,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I’m seeing red on my watchlist&nbsp;","listText":"I’m seeing red on my watchlist&nbsp;","text":"I’m seeing red on my watchlist","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166458516","repostId":"1118271544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118271544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624023029,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118271544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118271544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week sinc","content":"<p>U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数有望创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周，美联储最新政策更新后，银行股领跌市场。</blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股平均指数下跌400点，本周迄今跌幅达到2.8%。标普500下跌0.8%，本周跌幅超过1%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>股市扩大跌幅。路易斯联储主席Jim Bullard在CNBC上表示，美联储本周倾向于稍微“鹰派”是很自然的，央行首次加息可能会在2022年进行。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午，美联储在2023年预测中增加了两次加息，并上调了今年的通胀预测，华尔街出现下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，美联储的行动导致所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短端收益率的跃升则显示了对美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> This phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象正在损害银行股，特别是当短期和长期利率之间的利差缩小时，银行盈利可能会受到打击。高盛股价周五下跌超过1%，摩根大通和摩根士丹利也出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> \"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“投资者可能将美联储周三的鹰派倾向解读为一个迹象，表明在可能出现的货币政策不太宽松的环境下，美国大流行后经济扩张可能更难实现。”</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week&nbsp;as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国试图冷却不断上涨的物价和美元走强，大多数大宗商品价格在本周大幅下跌后，周五略有反弹。铜、黄金和铂的期货价格周五反弹，但本周仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现良好的芯片股周五似乎将继续上涨，英伟达股价上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和收入超出预期后，Adobe股价上涨约3%。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow drops 400 points at the open, extending losses in its worst week since January<blockquote>道琼斯指数开盘下跌400点，延续1月份以来最糟糕的一周跌幅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数有望创下1月份以来最糟糕的一周，美联储最新政策更新后，银行股领跌市场。</blockquote></p><p> The blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>蓝筹股平均指数下跌400点，本周迄今跌幅达到2.8%。标普500下跌0.8%，本周跌幅超过1%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>股市扩大跌幅。路易斯联储主席Jim Bullard在CNBC上表示，美联储本周倾向于稍微“鹰派”是很自然的，央行首次加息可能会在2022年进行。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.</p><p><blockquote>周三下午，美联储在2023年预测中增加了两次加息，并上调了今年的通胀预测，华尔街出现下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve&nbsp;where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the&nbsp;2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell.&nbsp;The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.</p><p><blockquote>股市下跌之际，美联储的行动导致所谓的国债收益率曲线急剧变平，2年期国债等短期国债收益率上升，而基准10年期国债等长期国债收益率下降。长期债券的回落反映了对经济增长的不太乐观，而短端收益率的跃升则显示了对美联储加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> This phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.</p><p><blockquote>这种现象正在损害银行股，特别是当短期和长期利率之间的利差缩小时，银行盈利可能会受到打击。高盛股价周五下跌超过1%，摩根大通和摩根士丹利也出现亏损。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，官员们已经讨论了缩减债券购买，并将在某个时候开始放缓资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> \"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的克里斯·赫西(Chris Hussey)在一份报告中表示：“投资者可能将美联储周三的鹰派倾向解读为一个迹象，表明在可能出现的货币政策不太宽松的环境下，美国大流行后经济扩张可能更难实现。”</blockquote></p><p> Most commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week&nbsp;as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国试图冷却不断上涨的物价和美元走强，大多数大宗商品价格在本周大幅下跌后，周五略有反弹。铜、黄金和铂的期货价格周五反弹，但本周仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周表现良好的芯片股周五似乎将继续上涨，英伟达股价上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和收入超出预期后，Adobe股价上涨约3%。</blockquote></p><p> Friday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.</p><p><blockquote>周五也恰逢季度“四重巫术”，指数和股票的期权和期货到期。许多人预计，鉴于这一事件，交易将更加波动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118271544","content_text":"U.S. stocks fell on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to post its worst week since January, as bank shares led the market sell-off after the Federal Reserve's latest policy update.\nThe blue-chip average dropped 400 points, bringing its week-to-date losses to 2.8% The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, pushing its loss this week to more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%.\nStocks extended their losses asSt. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said on CNBCthat it was natural for the Fed to tilt a little \"hawkish\" this week and that the first rate increase from the central bank would likely come in 2022.\nWall Street registered losses as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year.\nThe decline in stocks came as the Fed's actions caused a drastic flattening of the so-called Treasury yield curve where the yields of shorter-duration Treasurys, like the 2-year note, rose, while longer duration yields, such as the benchmark 10-year, fell. The retreat in long-dated bonds reflects less optimism toward economic growth, while the jump in short-end yields shows the expectations of the Fed raising rates.\nThis phenomenon is hurting bank stocks particularly as bank earnings could take a hit when the spread between short-term and long-term rates narrows. Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 1% Friday, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also traded in the red.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that officials have discussed tapering bond buying and would at some point begin slowing the asset purchases.\n\"Investors may be interpreting the Fed's hawkish tilt Wednesday as a sign that an extended US post-pandemic economic expansion may be a bit harder to achieve in a potentially emerging environment of less accommodative monetary policy,\" said Goldman Sachs' Chris Hussey in a note.\nMost commodities prices rebounded a bit on Friday followingsharp declines this week as China attempts to cool rising prices and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Futures prices for copper, gold, and platinum rebounded Friday, but were still down big for the week.\nChip stocks, which have had a good week, looked set to continue their run on Friday with shares of Nvidia higher by about 1%.\nAdobe shares gained about 3% after earnings and revenue topped estimates.\nFriday also coincides with the quarterly \"quadruple witching\" where options and futures on indexes and equities expire. Many expect trading to be more volatile in light of this event.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166630886,"gmtCreate":1624005211445,"gmtModify":1634024241755,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy?","listText":"Buy?","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166630886","repostId":"1142916683","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142916683","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624003342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142916683?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 16:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142916683","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading.\nOrphazyme slashed its financial foreca","content":"<p>Orphazyme&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;60% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b722b82c7d6ab2a6fcc7364eb2517b7f\" tg-width=\"1293\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.</p><p><blockquote>在美国卫生监管机构拒绝其关键候选药物后，Orphazyme周五大幅下调了财务预测。</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme表示，其申请FDA批准arimoclomol（一种治疗遗传性疾病尼曼-皮克病C型的药物）的申请尚未成功。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司预计今年的收入将低于此前预期，运营亏损将大幅扩大，迫使该公司削减成本。</blockquote></p><p> \"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>经纪商Nordnet在给客户的一份报告中写道：“Orphazyme没有钱，也没有实质性的项目……投资者将资金投入到‘模因倾向’驱动的完全不切实际的场景中。”</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.</p><p><blockquote>在哥本哈根和纽约上市的Orphazyme目前预计2021年的运营亏损为6.70-7亿克朗（107-1.12亿美元），而此前的预测为亏损100-1.5亿克朗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOrphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading<blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 16:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Orphazyme&nbsp;shares&nbsp;tumbled&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;60% in pre-market&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme股价在盘前交易中暴跌超过60%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b722b82c7d6ab2a6fcc7364eb2517b7f\" tg-width=\"1293\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.</p><p><blockquote>在美国卫生监管机构拒绝其关键候选药物后，Orphazyme周五大幅下调了财务预测。</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.</p><p><blockquote>Orphazyme表示，其申请FDA批准arimoclomol（一种治疗遗传性疾病尼曼-皮克病C型的药物）的申请尚未成功。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司预计今年的收入将低于此前预期，运营亏损将大幅扩大，迫使该公司削减成本。</blockquote></p><p> \"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.</p><p><blockquote>经纪商Nordnet在给客户的一份报告中写道：“Orphazyme没有钱，也没有实质性的项目……投资者将资金投入到‘模因倾向’驱动的完全不切实际的场景中。”</blockquote></p><p> Orphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.</p><p><blockquote>在哥本哈根和纽约上市的Orphazyme目前预计2021年的运营亏损为6.70-7亿克朗（107-1.12亿美元），而此前的预测为亏损100-1.5亿克朗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142916683","content_text":"Orphazyme shares tumbled more than 60% in pre-market trading.\nOrphazyme slashed its financial forecasts on Friday after U.S. health regulators rejected its key drug candidate.\nOrphazyme said its application for FDA approval of arimoclomol, a treatment for genetic disorder Niemann-Pick disease type C, had not been successful.\nAs a result, it predicted revenue for the year would be lower than previously expected and its operating loss significantly wider, forcing the company to cut costs.\n\"Orphazyme has no money and no substantial projects ... Investors have put their money into a completely unrealistic scenario driven by 'meme tendencies',\" broker Nordnet wrote in a note to clients.\nOrphazyme, which is listed in Copenhagen and New York, now expects an operating loss of 670-700 million crowns ($107-$112 million) in 2021, against a previous forecast for a loss of 100-150 million crowns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORPH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166356395,"gmtCreate":1623993271917,"gmtModify":1634024425006,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A fan&nbsp;","listText":"A fan&nbsp;","text":"A fan","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166356395","repostId":"1105892749","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105892749","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623809672,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105892749?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Bulls Look for Stock Catalysts. They Found Three.<blockquote>特斯拉多头寻找股票催化剂。他们找到了三个。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105892749","media":"Barrons","summary":"Weak performance from Tesla stock has bullish analysts feeling disappointed these days. They are looking for catalysts to break shares out of their recent funk.That performance is flummoxing Tesla bulls. “Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,” writes Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a Monday evening report. He is a Tesla bull rating shares Buy. His price target for the stock is $900 a share, almost 50% higher than recent levels. “Even bu","content":"<p>Weak performance from Tesla stock has bullish analysts feeling disappointed these days. They are looking for catalysts to break shares out of their recent funk.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票的疲软表现让看涨分析师最近感到失望。他们正在寻找催化剂，使股价摆脱最近的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is down about 15% year to date and off about 50% from its January 52-week high of $900.40. Tesla has ceded leadership—from a stock perspective—back to traditional auto makers: General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) shares are up 45% and 70% year to date, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价（股票代码：TSLA）今年迄今已下跌约15%，较1月份52周高点900.40美元下跌约50%。从股票角度来看，特斯拉已经将领导权让给了传统汽车制造商：通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)的股价今年迄今分别上涨了45%和70%。</blockquote></p><p> That performance is flummoxing Tesla bulls. “Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,” writes Morgan Stanley analyst&nbsp;Adam Jonas&nbsp;in a Monday evening report. He is a Tesla bull rating shares Buy. His price target for the stock is $900 a share, almost 50% higher than recent levels. “Even bulls should admit that the rise in the stock price during the second half of 2020, while perhaps deserved in principle, was packed into a&nbsp;highly concentrated&nbsp;time frame,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>这一表现让特斯拉多头感到困惑。摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)在周一晚间的一份报告中写道：“让我们从该股的起点开始，以健康的智力诚实开始。”他是特斯拉股票买入的牛市评级。他对该股的目标价为每股900美元，比近期水平高出近50%。他写道：“即使是多头也应该承认，2020年下半年股价的上涨虽然原则上也许是理所应当的，但却是在一个高度集中的时间框架内进行的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares rose 227% in the second half of 2020, buoyed by strong earnings, strong deliveries, and the stock’s inclusion in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>受强劲盈利、强劲交付以及该股被纳入标准普尔500指数的提振，特斯拉股价在2020年下半年上涨了227%。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock had the better part of five years-worth of performance packed into about five month,” Jonas adds. He says his clients are now looking for the next big thing that can drive the stock forward again. His ideas include capacity expansion in Texas and Germany. After that, he predicts Tesla will open up five more plants between now and the middle of this decade.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯补充道：“该股五年的大部分表现都集中在大约五个月内。”他说，他的客户现在正在寻找下一个可以推动股票再次上涨的大事件。他的想法包括在德克萨斯州和德国扩大产能。此后，他预测从现在到本世纪中期，特斯拉将再开设五家工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas is also looking for Tesla to unveil another new vehicle model. By his estimation, Tesla covers only about 15% of the total addressable market for the auto industry with its Y, X, 3, and S models. Model expansion will be a positive. That isn’t on the near-term horizon, though the company is due to deliver its Cybertruck later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas还希望特斯拉推出另一款新车型。据他估计，特斯拉的Y、X、3和S车型仅占汽车行业总潜在市场的15%左右。模型扩展将是积极的。尽管该公司将于2021年晚些时候交付其Cybertruck，但这并不是近期的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord analyst&nbsp;Jonathan Dorsheimer&nbsp;is looking in a different area for a catalyst: residential solar power. Part of the reason he is bullish is that “Tesla is creating an energy brand and an Apple-esque ecosystem of products with customer focused connectivity, seamlessly marrying car, solar, and back-up power,” he wrote in a report released Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord分析师Jonathan Dorsheimer正在另一个领域寻找催化剂：住宅太阳能。他看好的部分原因是“特斯拉正在创建一个能源品牌和一个苹果式的产品生态系统，具有以客户为中心的连接，将汽车、太阳能和备用电源无缝结合，”他在周日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer is bullish, but feeling a little down lately. He still rates the stock Buy, but he cut his&nbsp;price target&nbsp;to $812 from $974 in his report. Among other things, he is disappointed by battery delays. Tesla is planning to use larger battery cells that promise better range, charge time, and costs. Those batteries aren’t available yet.</p><p><blockquote>多斯海默很乐观，但最近感觉有点沮丧。他仍将该股评级为买入，但在报告中将目标价从974美元下调至812美元。除此之外，他对电池延迟感到失望。特斯拉正计划使用更大的电池，以保证更好的续航里程、充电时间和成本。那些电池还没有上市。</blockquote></p><p> Looking a little further back, Goldman Sachs analyst&nbsp;Mark Delaney&nbsp;was watching Tesla’s Model S Plaid delivery event last week. The Plaid can go zero to 60 miles per hour in less than two seconds. Delaney was impressed by the technology, but pointed out the Plaid, at roughly $130,000, is a niche vehicle. He is looking for 2021 deliveries to exceed expectations. Delaney is modeling 875,000 vehicles for Tesla in 2021. The Wall Street consensus number is closer to 825,000.</p><p><blockquote>再往前看，高盛分析师Mark Delaney上周观看了特斯拉Model S Plaid交付活动。格子可以在不到两秒钟的时间内从零加速到60英里/小时。德莱尼对这项技术印象深刻，但指出售价约13万美元的Plaid是一款小众汽车。他希望2021年的交付量能够超出预期。德莱尼将在2021年为特斯拉设计875,000辆汽车。华尔街的共识数字更接近82.5万。</blockquote></p><p> Delaney rates shares Buy and has an $860 price target.</p><p><blockquote>德莱尼将股票评级为买入，目标价为860美元。</blockquote></p><p> New production ramping up, strong deliveries, and a growing solar business is what these three will watch for in coming months. If all goes well, those catalysts should be enough to drive Tesla stock higher, as long as there is no bad news in the meantime.</p><p><blockquote>新产量的增加、强劲的交付量和不断增长的太阳能业务是这三家公司未来几个月将关注的焦点。如果一切顺利，只要同时没有坏消息，这些催化剂应该足以推动特斯拉股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock was down 3%&nbsp;to $599.36&nbsp;on&nbsp;Tuesday, and down slightly for the week.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周二下跌3%，至599.36美元，本周小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Bulls Look for Stock Catalysts. They Found Three.<blockquote>特斯拉多头寻找股票催化剂。他们找到了三个。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Bulls Look for Stock Catalysts. They Found Three.<blockquote>特斯拉多头寻找股票催化剂。他们找到了三个。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Weak performance from Tesla stock has bullish analysts feeling disappointed these days. They are looking for catalysts to break shares out of their recent funk.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票的疲软表现让看涨分析师最近感到失望。他们正在寻找催化剂，使股价摆脱最近的恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is down about 15% year to date and off about 50% from its January 52-week high of $900.40. Tesla has ceded leadership—from a stock perspective—back to traditional auto makers: General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) shares are up 45% and 70% year to date, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价（股票代码：TSLA）今年迄今已下跌约15%，较1月份52周高点900.40美元下跌约50%。从股票角度来看，特斯拉已经将领导权让给了传统汽车制造商：通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)的股价今年迄今分别上涨了45%和70%。</blockquote></p><p> That performance is flummoxing Tesla bulls. “Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,” writes Morgan Stanley analyst&nbsp;Adam Jonas&nbsp;in a Monday evening report. He is a Tesla bull rating shares Buy. His price target for the stock is $900 a share, almost 50% higher than recent levels. “Even bulls should admit that the rise in the stock price during the second half of 2020, while perhaps deserved in principle, was packed into a&nbsp;highly concentrated&nbsp;time frame,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>这一表现让特斯拉多头感到困惑。摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)在周一晚间的一份报告中写道：“让我们从该股的起点开始，以健康的智力诚实开始。”他是特斯拉股票买入的牛市评级。他对该股的目标价为每股900美元，比近期水平高出近50%。他写道：“即使是多头也应该承认，2020年下半年股价的上涨虽然原则上也许是理所应当的，但却是在一个高度集中的时间框架内进行的。”</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares rose 227% in the second half of 2020, buoyed by strong earnings, strong deliveries, and the stock’s inclusion in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>受强劲盈利、强劲交付以及该股被纳入标准普尔500指数的提振，特斯拉股价在2020年下半年上涨了227%。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock had the better part of five years-worth of performance packed into about five month,” Jonas adds. He says his clients are now looking for the next big thing that can drive the stock forward again. His ideas include capacity expansion in Texas and Germany. After that, he predicts Tesla will open up five more plants between now and the middle of this decade.</p><p><blockquote>乔纳斯补充道：“该股五年的大部分表现都集中在大约五个月内。”他说，他的客户现在正在寻找下一个可以推动股票再次上涨的大事件。他的想法包括在德克萨斯州和德国扩大产能。此后，他预测从现在到本世纪中期，特斯拉将再开设五家工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas is also looking for Tesla to unveil another new vehicle model. By his estimation, Tesla covers only about 15% of the total addressable market for the auto industry with its Y, X, 3, and S models. Model expansion will be a positive. That isn’t on the near-term horizon, though the company is due to deliver its Cybertruck later in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas还希望特斯拉推出另一款新车型。据他估计，特斯拉的Y、X、3和S车型仅占汽车行业总潜在市场的15%左右。模型扩展将是积极的。尽管该公司将于2021年晚些时候交付其Cybertruck，但这并不是近期的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Canaccord analyst&nbsp;Jonathan Dorsheimer&nbsp;is looking in a different area for a catalyst: residential solar power. Part of the reason he is bullish is that “Tesla is creating an energy brand and an Apple-esque ecosystem of products with customer focused connectivity, seamlessly marrying car, solar, and back-up power,” he wrote in a report released Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>Canaccord分析师Jonathan Dorsheimer正在另一个领域寻找催化剂：住宅太阳能。他看好的部分原因是“特斯拉正在创建一个能源品牌和一个苹果式的产品生态系统，具有以客户为中心的连接，将汽车、太阳能和备用电源无缝结合，”他在周日发布的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Dorsheimer is bullish, but feeling a little down lately. He still rates the stock Buy, but he cut his&nbsp;price target&nbsp;to $812 from $974 in his report. Among other things, he is disappointed by battery delays. Tesla is planning to use larger battery cells that promise better range, charge time, and costs. Those batteries aren’t available yet.</p><p><blockquote>多斯海默很乐观，但最近感觉有点沮丧。他仍将该股评级为买入，但在报告中将目标价从974美元下调至812美元。除此之外，他对电池延迟感到失望。特斯拉正计划使用更大的电池，以保证更好的续航里程、充电时间和成本。那些电池还没有上市。</blockquote></p><p> Looking a little further back, Goldman Sachs analyst&nbsp;Mark Delaney&nbsp;was watching Tesla’s Model S Plaid delivery event last week. The Plaid can go zero to 60 miles per hour in less than two seconds. Delaney was impressed by the technology, but pointed out the Plaid, at roughly $130,000, is a niche vehicle. He is looking for 2021 deliveries to exceed expectations. Delaney is modeling 875,000 vehicles for Tesla in 2021. The Wall Street consensus number is closer to 825,000.</p><p><blockquote>再往前看，高盛分析师Mark Delaney上周观看了特斯拉Model S Plaid交付活动。格子可以在不到两秒钟的时间内从零加速到60英里/小时。德莱尼对这项技术印象深刻，但指出售价约13万美元的Plaid是一款小众汽车。他希望2021年的交付量能够超出预期。德莱尼将在2021年为特斯拉设计875,000辆汽车。华尔街的共识数字更接近82.5万。</blockquote></p><p> Delaney rates shares Buy and has an $860 price target.</p><p><blockquote>德莱尼将股票评级为买入，目标价为860美元。</blockquote></p><p> New production ramping up, strong deliveries, and a growing solar business is what these three will watch for in coming months. If all goes well, those catalysts should be enough to drive Tesla stock higher, as long as there is no bad news in the meantime.</p><p><blockquote>新产量的增加、强劲的交付量和不断增长的太阳能业务是这三家公司未来几个月将关注的焦点。如果一切顺利，只要同时没有坏消息，这些催化剂应该足以推动特斯拉股价走高。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock was down 3%&nbsp;to $599.36&nbsp;on&nbsp;Tuesday, and down slightly for the week.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周二下跌3%，至599.36美元，本周小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bulls-look-for-stock-catalysts-they-found-three-51623774479?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bulls-look-for-stock-catalysts-they-found-three-51623774479?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105892749","content_text":"Weak performance from Tesla stock has bullish analysts feeling disappointed these days. They are looking for catalysts to break shares out of their recent funk.\nTesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is down about 15% year to date and off about 50% from its January 52-week high of $900.40. Tesla has ceded leadership—from a stock perspective—back to traditional auto makers: General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) shares are up 45% and 70% year to date, respectively.\nThat performance is flummoxing Tesla bulls. “Let’s begin with a healthy dose of intellectual honesty on the starting point for the stock,” writes Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a Monday evening report. He is a Tesla bull rating shares Buy. His price target for the stock is $900 a share, almost 50% higher than recent levels. “Even bulls should admit that the rise in the stock price during the second half of 2020, while perhaps deserved in principle, was packed into a highly concentrated time frame,” he writes.\nTesla shares rose 227% in the second half of 2020, buoyed by strong earnings, strong deliveries, and the stock’s inclusion in the S&P 500.\n“The stock had the better part of five years-worth of performance packed into about five month,” Jonas adds. He says his clients are now looking for the next big thing that can drive the stock forward again. His ideas include capacity expansion in Texas and Germany. After that, he predicts Tesla will open up five more plants between now and the middle of this decade.\nJonas is also looking for Tesla to unveil another new vehicle model. By his estimation, Tesla covers only about 15% of the total addressable market for the auto industry with its Y, X, 3, and S models. Model expansion will be a positive. That isn’t on the near-term horizon, though the company is due to deliver its Cybertruck later in 2021.\nCanaccord analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer is looking in a different area for a catalyst: residential solar power. Part of the reason he is bullish is that “Tesla is creating an energy brand and an Apple-esque ecosystem of products with customer focused connectivity, seamlessly marrying car, solar, and back-up power,” he wrote in a report released Sunday.\nDorsheimer is bullish, but feeling a little down lately. He still rates the stock Buy, but he cut his price target to $812 from $974 in his report. Among other things, he is disappointed by battery delays. Tesla is planning to use larger battery cells that promise better range, charge time, and costs. Those batteries aren’t available yet.\nLooking a little further back, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney was watching Tesla’s Model S Plaid delivery event last week. The Plaid can go zero to 60 miles per hour in less than two seconds. Delaney was impressed by the technology, but pointed out the Plaid, at roughly $130,000, is a niche vehicle. He is looking for 2021 deliveries to exceed expectations. Delaney is modeling 875,000 vehicles for Tesla in 2021. The Wall Street consensus number is closer to 825,000.\nDelaney rates shares Buy and has an $860 price target.\nNew production ramping up, strong deliveries, and a growing solar business is what these three will watch for in coming months. If all goes well, those catalysts should be enough to drive Tesla stock higher, as long as there is no bad news in the meantime.\nTesla stock was down 3% to $599.36 on Tuesday, and down slightly for the week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166322773,"gmtCreate":1623992939992,"gmtModify":1634024432478,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Used to be called duck fed","listText":"Used to be called duck fed","text":"Used to be called duck fed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166322773","repostId":"2143497767","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162760124,"gmtCreate":1624075948668,"gmtModify":1634010993392,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I’m waiting for good IPOs","listText":"I’m waiting for good IPOs","text":"I’m waiting for good IPOs","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162760124","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162625673,"gmtCreate":1624062324792,"gmtModify":1634023442402,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That long?? Zzzz&nbsp;","listText":"That long?? Zzzz&nbsp;","text":"That long?? Zzzz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162625673","repostId":"1111305468","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166449763,"gmtCreate":1624023732052,"gmtModify":1634023965426,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I’m still unsure of this counter","listText":"I’m still unsure of this counter","text":"I’m still unsure of this counter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166449763","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166316987,"gmtCreate":1623991477549,"gmtModify":1634024461263,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not for the faint hearted","listText":"Not for the faint hearted","text":"Not for the faint hearted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166316987","repostId":"2143979397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166334624,"gmtCreate":1623991228668,"gmtModify":1634024466907,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tempting but gotta look more at the fundamentals&nbsp;","listText":"Tempting but gotta look more at the fundamentals&nbsp;","text":"Tempting but gotta look more at the fundamentals","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166334624","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166910474,"gmtCreate":1623987650098,"gmtModify":1634024552928,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like gambling at a casino&nbsp;","listText":"Like gambling at a casino&nbsp;","text":"Like gambling at a casino","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166910474","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上，在AMC上指导你。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望轧空的投机者来说，这是一个百年的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我与AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）一起尝试了一下。在读了两篇有趣的文章后，我回来看更多。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果说我看得更远了一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克一样——艾萨克的朋友们可能从未使用过这个昵称——我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>，以及约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>》，比尔盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用两者，然后为您划清界限AMC。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者、交易者、投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>Jason Zweig在他的2021年6月11日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>柱：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>每当你因为有预感或只是为了好玩而购买任何金融资产，或者因为某个名人正在大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买它，你就不是在投资。你绝对是一个交易者：刚刚购买了一项资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：认为其他人会比你支付更多的钱。”“投资者依赖内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值的增长。投机者依赖外部回报来源：主要是其他人是否会支付更多，而不考虑基本价值。”</i>那么为什么AMC的股价一直在上涨呢？我有一个非正式的数据来源，即我6月4日AMC文章的300多条评论。收益，收入，资产价值的增长<i>没有</i>上来了。出现的是“轧空”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将AMC的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这些数据只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年AMC盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的参考时间框架</i>是2017年到2019年。早期的数据相关性较低，因为AMC在2016年进行了一项大型收购，而2020年和2021年的数据则因为新冠疫情而相关性更低。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？流媒体在订户和内容方面的稳定增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。保持电影上座率接近19年的水平将是一个小小的奇迹。下降10%，甚至20%的可能性要大得多。如上表所示，我使用所有三种票房假设对2022年AMC每股收益进行预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我假设AMC的份额会比17-19年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定因新冠疫情的财务压力而退出。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>招生毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为AMC在17-19年保持稳定，但我也可以想象电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为AMC必须与越来越多渴望内容的流媒体服务竞标。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品费用占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我继承了低得惊人的数字。AMC，大概还有它的同行，承担他们的食品和饮料成本和<i>将它们对美国电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私你自己的Jujifruits，省下一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为AMC小幅上涨的趋势仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营业费用</i></b>是剧院人员、公用事业等的成本。我认为运营费用率的逐步上升趋势仍在继续，原因有二。第一，这些运营费用基本上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的薪酬水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在已经为我的盈利和现金流模型做好了准备：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22年的预测是根据上述假设通过“毛利润”线设定的。我的管理费用预测假设AMC正在努力限制费用度过充满挑战的时期：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧/摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记本应减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着AMC用其筹集的股权偿还部分债务，这一数字应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的2022年每股收益的最佳情况是大致盈亏平衡。更有可能的是适度的损失。现金流应该会更糟，因为AMC保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力所需的现金资本支出应该超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，可能是因为AMC管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚取任何物质收入。其业务因技术变革而长期下滑，新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪兽公司——Netflix、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着AMC目前55美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的话来说<i>交易场所</i>、“卖莫蒂默，卖！”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——轧空：历史警示</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。这本书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，生动地讲述了20世纪20年代初的空头挤压故事。一个世纪前。我将引用书中的话来说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，投机的故事将如何结束。所以，给自己倒点非法烈酒（我们正走向禁酒令时代），继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922年，空头追捧克拉伦斯的股票，将其从50美元推至40美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用空头挤压进行报复。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述这个故事的摘录：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了33,000股Piggly Wiggly股票，大部分来自卖空者；不到一周，他就将总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股已发行股票的一半。桑德斯购买活动的有效性显而易见；到1923年1月下旬，它已将价格推高了60多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的“猿”所取代，而猿在推高价格方面要好得多。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿很精明——有意思。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他赚了一大笔钱，证明了一个贫穷的南方男孩是如何教训城市里的狡猾分子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿类坚持对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能会击败他的对手，他也会发现他赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，卖空者可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他会将其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值55美元的股票。在他二月份的广告中，他规定公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付10美元即可购买股票</i>“很聪明，不是吗？没有：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>在第三天结束时，认购的股份总数仍低于2.5万股，所做的卖出被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次旅行是失败的。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8月22日，Adrian H.Muller&amp;Son的纽约拍卖公司……以每股1美元的价格拍卖了1,500股Piggly Wiggly股票……第二年春天，Saunders进入了正式破产程序。”</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家当心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今AMC股票的持有者无疑让许多卖空者的生活变得痛苦。但真的有足够多的新买家来收购AMC目前280亿美元市值以上的现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利的情况下不断给股票带来压力的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC股东们，不要赢得克拉伦斯·桑德斯得不偿失的胜利。拿着每股55美元跑吧。快的。在其他投机持有者首先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128946881,"gmtCreate":1624499525343,"gmtModify":1634005225220,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still not keen on this counter yet","listText":"Still not keen on this counter yet","text":"Still not keen on this counter yet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128946881","repostId":"2145063928","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2145063928","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1624379783,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2145063928?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 00:36","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Amazon's Planned Purchase Of MGM To Be Reviewed By FTC - WSJ<blockquote>亚马逊收购米高梅的计划将接受FTC审查-华尔街日报</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145063928","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"June 22 (Reuters) - :Amazon’S Planned Purchase Of Mgm To Be Reviewed By Ftc - Wsj.Further Company Co","content":"<p><html><body>June 22 (Reuters) - :Amazon’S Planned Purchase Of Mgm To Be Reviewed By Ftc - Wsj.Further Company Coverage: Amzn.O. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透6月22日-：亚马逊收购米高梅的计划将接受FTC-WSJ审查。更多公司报道：Amzn.O.（（Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com；））。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon's Planned Purchase Of MGM To Be Reviewed By FTC - WSJ<blockquote>亚马逊收购米高梅的计划将接受FTC审查-华尔街日报</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon's Planned Purchase Of MGM To Be Reviewed By FTC - WSJ<blockquote>亚马逊收购米高梅的计划将接受FTC审查-华尔街日报</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 00:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>June 22 (Reuters) - :Amazon’S Planned Purchase Of Mgm To Be Reviewed By Ftc - Wsj.Further Company Coverage: Amzn.O. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透6月22日-：亚马逊收购米高梅的计划将接受FTC-WSJ审查。更多公司报道：Amzn.O.（（Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com；））。</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09086":"华夏纳指-U","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03086":"华夏纳指","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145063928","content_text":"June 22 (Reuters) - :Amazon’S Planned Purchase Of Mgm To Be Reviewed By Ftc - Wsj.Further Company Coverage: Amzn.O. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"QNETCN":0.6,"03086":0.6,"09086":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164923371,"gmtCreate":1624166771493,"gmtModify":1634009891327,"author":{"id":"3585275877804031","authorId":"3585275877804031","name":"JilQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb3139dd245c3734bfe1d9a9064f8d8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585275877804031","authorIdStr":"3585275877804031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I may give&nbsp;Amazon a little thought now","listText":"I may give&nbsp;Amazon a little thought now","text":"I may give Amazon a little thought now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164923371","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}