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Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.

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These Stocks Are Good Bets.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159096163","media":"Barrons","summary":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce","content":"<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p>\n<p>Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p>\n<p>The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p>\n<p>But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p>\n<p>Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p>\n<p>“Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p>\n<p>Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p>\n<p>Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p>\n<p>These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p>\n<p>No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p>\n<p>But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p>\n<p>The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p>\n<p>“The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p>\n<p>Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p>\n<p>But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p>\n<p>In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p>\n<p>Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p>\n<p>“We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p>\n<p>Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p>\n<p>“Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p>\n<p>Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p>\n<p>That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p>\n<p>According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p>\n<p>The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p>\n<p>During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p>\n<p>“You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p>\n<p>Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p>\n<p>Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p>\n<p>Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p>\n<p>Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p>\n<p>“With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p>\n<p>All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p>\n<p>“We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p>\n<p>All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p>\n<p>The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p>\n<p>“I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p>\n<p>Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p>\n<p>Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p>\n<p>To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p>\n<p>On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p>\n<p>Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p>\n<p>The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p>\n<p>Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p>\n<p>Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p>\n<p>“We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p>\n<p>As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. 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These Stocks Are Good Bets.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-14 08:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","SIG":"西格内特珠宝","BBRYF":"Burberry Group Plc","JWN":"诺德斯特龙","AMZN":"亚马逊","CAL":"Caleres鞋业","BRBY.UK":"巴宝莉","ANF":"爱芬奇","WMT":"沃尔玛","RCD":"READY CAPITAL CORPORATION 9.00% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2029","M":"梅西百货"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159096163","content_text":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.\nThe retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.\nBut something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.\nRevenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.\n“Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with Barron’s. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”\nAbercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.\nBrands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including Macy’s (M),Nordstrom (JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres (CAL), and Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.\nThese companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.\nNo one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.\nBut the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.\nWealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.\nThe pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as Amazon.com (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.\n“The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”\nShor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.\nBut the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.\nIn one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.\nSuch approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.\n“We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.\nAbercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.\n“Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”\nNot only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.\nThat behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.\nAccording to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.\nThe shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.\nDuring the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.\n“You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.\nRetail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.\nRetailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly Mastercard spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.\nLuxury retailer Burberry Group (BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And Tapestry (TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.\nSome analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”\nMeanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.\n“With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.\nAll of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the SPDR S&P Retail exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&P 500 rose 33%. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.\n“We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”\nAll that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.\nThe verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.\n“I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.\nCompanies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.\nAbercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.\nTo ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.\nOn the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.\nWhatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”\nThe economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.\nAbercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.\nOther retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.\n“We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.\nAs retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873875641,"gmtCreate":1636933924328,"gmtModify":1636933924328,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873875641","repostId":"1135817623","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873872783,"gmtCreate":1636933888801,"gmtModify":1636933888801,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873872783","repostId":"2183232043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873974094,"gmtCreate":1636852709186,"gmtModify":1636852709186,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873974094","repostId":"1116750872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116750872","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1636761765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116750872?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116750872","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Meta Platforms Inc is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off","content":"<p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b>&nbsp;is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than&nbsp;672,970 options with 476,002&nbsp;being calls and 196,968&nbsp;being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08237f8d7c163047e56072f027073d5\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>What It Matters:</b>Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000&nbsp;options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.</p>\n<p>Any time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.</p>\n<p>Of note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970&nbsp;options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.</p>\n<p><b>What's Next:</b>Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74f74fdf39ce74de7e0d6a88eb349c8\" tg-width=\"1743\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>This suggests bullish traders are targeting&nbsp;between $330 and $360, but don't have&nbsp;much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.</p>\n<p>It should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.</p>\n<p>Hence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-13 08:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b>&nbsp;is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than&nbsp;672,970 options with 476,002&nbsp;being calls and 196,968&nbsp;being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08237f8d7c163047e56072f027073d5\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>What It Matters:</b>Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000&nbsp;options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.</p>\n<p>Any time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.</p>\n<p>Of note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970&nbsp;options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.</p>\n<p><b>What's Next:</b>Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74f74fdf39ce74de7e0d6a88eb349c8\" tg-width=\"1743\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>This suggests bullish traders are targeting&nbsp;between $330 and $360, but don't have&nbsp;much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.</p>\n<p>It should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.</p>\n<p>Hence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116750872","content_text":"Meta Platforms Inc is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.\nWhat Happened: While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than 672,970 options with 476,002 being calls and 196,968 being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).\n\nWhat It Matters:Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000 options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.\nAny time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.\nOf note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970 options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.\nWhat's Next:Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).\n\nThis suggests bullish traders are targeting between $330 and $360, but don't have much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.\nIt should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.\nHence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873975687,"gmtCreate":1636852670771,"gmtModify":1636852670771,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873975687","repostId":"1129004768","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129004768","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636764434,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129004768?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129004768","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>\n <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>\n <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p>\n<p>Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p>\n<p><b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p>\n<p>Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p>\n<p>The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p>\n<p>I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p>\n<p>This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p>\n<p>In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p>\n<p><b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p>\n<p>The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p>\n<p>That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p>\n<p>First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p>\n<p><b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p>\n<p>The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p>\n<p>But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p>\n<p>I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p>\n<p><b>In summary</b></p>\n<p>Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-13 08:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.\nI list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129004768","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.\nI list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nMaybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.\n\nkmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.\nBelow, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nKey risk #1: drop-off in demand\nNot many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's Pierre Ferragu and Satori Fund's Dan Niles are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.\nThe first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.\nI see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\nThis may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.\nIn the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.\nKey risk #2: valuation\nThe other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.\nThat, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.\nFirst, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer have been hurting social media companies and their financial statements led to the Nasdaqe rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.\nData by YCharts\nAlso, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.\nKey risk #3: lack of positive catalysts\nThe next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and so has the refreshed lineup of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.\nBut here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.\nI have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and autonomous vehicle has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.\nIn summary\nApple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be in February 2021 or, better yet,in April 2018 – in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879432955,"gmtCreate":1636761882097,"gmtModify":1636761882097,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879432955","repostId":"2182100092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436495,"gmtCreate":1636761851903,"gmtModify":1636761851985,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436495","repostId":"2182094779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436269,"gmtCreate":1636761832835,"gmtModify":1636761832835,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436269","repostId":"2182236092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436852,"gmtCreate":1636761814810,"gmtModify":1636761814810,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436852","repostId":"2182153840","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436325,"gmtCreate":1636761787365,"gmtModify":1636761787365,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436325","repostId":"1193642637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":873874034,"gmtCreate":1636933962173,"gmtModify":1636933962173,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873874034","repostId":"1159096163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159096163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636851053,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159096163?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-14 08:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159096163","media":"Barrons","summary":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce","content":"<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p>\n<p>Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p>\n<p>The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p>\n<p>But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p>\n<p>Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p>\n<p>“Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p>\n<p>Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p>\n<p>Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p>\n<p>These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p>\n<p>No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p>\n<p>But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p>\n<p>The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p>\n<p>“The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p>\n<p>Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p>\n<p>But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p>\n<p>In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p>\n<p>Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p>\n<p>“We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p>\n<p>Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p>\n<p>“Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p>\n<p>Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p>\n<p>That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p>\n<p>According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p>\n<p>The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p>\n<p>During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p>\n<p>“You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p>\n<p>Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p>\n<p>Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p>\n<p>Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p>\n<p>Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p>\n<p>“With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p>\n<p>All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p>\n<p>“We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p>\n<p>All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p>\n<p>The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p>\n<p>“I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p>\n<p>Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p>\n<p>Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p>\n<p>To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p>\n<p>On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p>\n<p>Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p>\n<p>The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p>\n<p>Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p>\n<p>Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p>\n<p>“We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p>\n<p>As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. 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These Stocks Are Good Bets.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-14 08:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","SIG":"西格内特珠宝","BBRYF":"Burberry Group Plc","JWN":"诺德斯特龙","AMZN":"亚马逊","CAL":"Caleres鞋业","BRBY.UK":"巴宝莉","ANF":"爱芬奇","WMT":"沃尔玛","RCD":"READY CAPITAL CORPORATION 9.00% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2029","M":"梅西百货"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159096163","content_text":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.\nThe retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.\nBut something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.\nRevenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.\n“Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with Barron’s. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”\nAbercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.\nBrands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including Macy’s (M),Nordstrom (JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres (CAL), and Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.\nThese companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.\nNo one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.\nBut the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.\nWealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.\nThe pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as Amazon.com (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.\n“The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”\nShor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.\nBut the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.\nIn one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.\nSuch approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.\n“We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.\nAbercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.\n“Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”\nNot only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.\nThat behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.\nAccording to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.\nThe shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.\nDuring the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.\n“You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.\nRetail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.\nRetailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly Mastercard spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.\nLuxury retailer Burberry Group (BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And Tapestry (TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.\nSome analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”\nMeanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.\n“With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.\nAll of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the SPDR S&P Retail exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&P 500 rose 33%. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.\n“We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”\nAll that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.\nThe verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.\n“I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.\nCompanies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.\nAbercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.\nTo ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.\nOn the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.\nWhatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”\nThe economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.\nAbercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.\nOther retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.\n“We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.\nAs retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873872783,"gmtCreate":1636933888801,"gmtModify":1636933888801,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873872783","repostId":"2183232043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436495,"gmtCreate":1636761851903,"gmtModify":1636761851985,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436495","repostId":"2182094779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873875641,"gmtCreate":1636933924328,"gmtModify":1636933924328,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873875641","repostId":"1135817623","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873974094,"gmtCreate":1636852709186,"gmtModify":1636852709186,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873974094","repostId":"1116750872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116750872","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1636761765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116750872?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116750872","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Meta Platforms Inc is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off","content":"<p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b>&nbsp;is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than&nbsp;672,970 options with 476,002&nbsp;being calls and 196,968&nbsp;being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08237f8d7c163047e56072f027073d5\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>What It Matters:</b>Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000&nbsp;options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.</p>\n<p>Any time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.</p>\n<p>Of note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970&nbsp;options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.</p>\n<p><b>What's Next:</b>Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74f74fdf39ce74de7e0d6a88eb349c8\" tg-width=\"1743\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>This suggests bullish traders are targeting&nbsp;between $330 and $360, but don't have&nbsp;much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.</p>\n<p>It should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.</p>\n<p>Hence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-13 08:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b>&nbsp;is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.</p>\n<p><b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than&nbsp;672,970 options with 476,002&nbsp;being calls and 196,968&nbsp;being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08237f8d7c163047e56072f027073d5\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>What It Matters:</b>Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000&nbsp;options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.</p>\n<p>Any time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.</p>\n<p>Of note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970&nbsp;options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.</p>\n<p><b>What's Next:</b>Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74f74fdf39ce74de7e0d6a88eb349c8\" tg-width=\"1743\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>This suggests bullish traders are targeting&nbsp;between $330 and $360, but don't have&nbsp;much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.</p>\n<p>It should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.</p>\n<p>Hence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116750872","content_text":"Meta Platforms Inc is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.\nWhat Happened: While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than 672,970 options with 476,002 being calls and 196,968 being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).\n\nWhat It Matters:Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000 options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.\nAny time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.\nOf note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970 options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.\nWhat's Next:Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).\n\nThis suggests bullish traders are targeting between $330 and $360, but don't have much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.\nIt should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.\nHence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873975687,"gmtCreate":1636852670771,"gmtModify":1636852670771,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873975687","repostId":"1129004768","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129004768","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636764434,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129004768?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129004768","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>\n <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>\n <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p>\n<p>Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p>\n<p><b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p>\n<p>Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p>\n<p>The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p>\n<p>I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p>\n<p>This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p>\n<p>In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p>\n<p><b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p>\n<p>The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p>\n<p>That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p>\n<p>First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p>\n<p><b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p>\n<p>The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p>\n<p>But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p>\n<p>I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p>\n<p><b>In summary</b></p>\n<p>Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-13 08:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.\nI list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129004768","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.\nI list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nMaybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.\n\nkmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.\nBelow, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nKey risk #1: drop-off in demand\nNot many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's Pierre Ferragu and Satori Fund's Dan Niles are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.\nThe first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.\nI see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\nThis may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.\nIn the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.\nKey risk #2: valuation\nThe other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.\nThat, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.\nFirst, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer have been hurting social media companies and their financial statements led to the Nasdaqe rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.\nData by YCharts\nAlso, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.\nKey risk #3: lack of positive catalysts\nThe next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and so has the refreshed lineup of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.\nBut here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.\nI have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and autonomous vehicle has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.\nIn summary\nApple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be in February 2021 or, better yet,in April 2018 – in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436852,"gmtCreate":1636761814810,"gmtModify":1636761814810,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436852","repostId":"2182153840","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436325,"gmtCreate":1636761787365,"gmtModify":1636761787365,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436325","repostId":"1193642637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879432955,"gmtCreate":1636761882097,"gmtModify":1636761882097,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879432955","repostId":"2182100092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436269,"gmtCreate":1636761832835,"gmtModify":1636761832835,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436269","repostId":"2182236092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690860894,"gmtCreate":1639655279022,"gmtModify":1639655279120,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wwwww","listText":"Wwwww","text":"Wwwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690860894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}