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2021-12-16

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2021-11-15

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Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>

2021-11-15

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2021-11-15

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2021-11-14

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Meta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?<blockquote>Meta Platforms本周收盘强劲：期权交易者的目标是历史高点吗？</blockquote>

2021-11-14

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Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊市论点及其错误的原因</blockquote>

2021-11-13

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2021-11-13

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2021-11-13

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2021-11-13

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2021-11-13

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These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159096163","media":"Barrons","summary":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce","content":"<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p><p><blockquote>当疫情袭击美国经济时，Abercrombie&amp;Fitch的前景似乎很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie（股票代码：ANF）曾经是购物中心的主食，以鲜明、性感的广告和深色、香水味十足的商店俘获了青少年的心和钱包，但其股价在2017年创下新低。购物者对该品牌的厌恶和商场客流量的稳步下降给其未来蒙上了阴影。然后，在2020年3月，冠状病毒开始关闭全国各地的商场和商店。</blockquote></p><p> The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p><p><blockquote>零售业的末日似乎即将夺走另一个受害者。</blockquote></p><p> But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p><p><blockquote>但在去葬礼的路上发生了令人惊讶的事情：Abercrombie享受了自2000年代全盛时期以来最好的一年。在首席执行官弗兰·霍洛维茨(Fran Horowitz)的领导下，该公司进行了品牌重塑，发布了更具包容性的信息，并将重点转向年轻专业人士，同时针对青少年微调了霍利斯特品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p><p><blockquote>截至7月31日，该公司第二财季收入同比增长24%，较大流行前水平增长3%。随着现金充裕的购物者涌向商店，其股价今年上涨了120%。</blockquote></p><p> “Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p><p><blockquote>霍洛维茨在接受采访时表示：“品牌认知度很难改变，需要时间才能与消费者重新建立信任。”<i>巴伦周刊</i>.“因此，我们很高兴地说，在2021年，我们显然看到了所有这些努力工作的美妙效果。”</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie并不是唯一一个进入新增长期的零售品牌。在过去的一年里，许多美国零售商不仅走出了深渊，还利用疫情带来的宏观经济变化，推动自己进入了意想不到的复兴。</blockquote></p><p> Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的市场和急于花掉疫情积蓄的消费者的推动下，成功将实体业务与数字战略相结合的品牌销售额飙升，股价上涨。许多大型购物中心零售商的股价飙升，包括梅西百货(M)、诺德斯特龙(JWN)、著名鞋类母公司Caleres(CAL)和Signet Jewelers(SIG)，这些公司在过去12个月内都上涨了至少100%。</blockquote></p><p> These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司现在准备从可能创纪录的假期中获益。根据全国零售联合会的数据，消费者可能会花费8510亿美元，比去年创纪录的7770亿美元增长9.5%，是过去五年4.4%平均增幅的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道这场派对是否会持续下去，或者这些商店是否只是在捕捉未来可能发生的销售。在零售销售正常化之前，企业需要应对一系列供应链和通胀压力，这些压力可能会抑制假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p><p><blockquote>但意外的复兴重申了许多品牌对实体店力量的信念。虽然他们仍在大力投资在线业务，但他们继续在实体未来上下大赌注。随着对实体店投资的继续，许多人曾经预期的实体零售商的消亡似乎不再那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>富裕家庭计划在这个假期平均花费2624美元，比去年增加15%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>疫情对零售商来说并不理想，但它提供了一些独特的机会。问题是显而易见的。人们害怕亲自购物。购物者——甚至是婴儿潮一代——以意想不到的数量涌向网上。亚马逊（AMZN）和沃尔玛（WMT）等零售巨头经历了有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> “The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p><p><blockquote>Columbia Threadneedle Investments零售分析师Mari Shor表示：“投资者情绪——尤其是短期对冲基金类型投资者——刚刚对该集团变得非常负面。”“我只是认为投资者并没有真正相信公司或消费者。”</blockquote></p><p> Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p><p><blockquote>肖尔表示，投资者的怀疑根源于这样一种观念，即传统零售商，无论是大流行前还是大流行后，都无法生存。</blockquote></p><p> But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情给了零售商一个难得的机会，让他们关闭表现不佳的门店，专注于优秀的门店。许多零售商还专注于在网上做得更好，并将销售策略转向消费者，无论他们何时何地想购物——无论是网上购物、移动购物还是店内购物。</blockquote></p><p> In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>萨克斯第五大道精品百货店(Saks Fifth Avenue)的母公司剥离了其电子商务部门，该部门目前预计将上市，目标估值为60亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，这种方法至关重要。据美国零售联合会估计，今年假期在线和其他非商店销售额预计将增长11%至15%，可能达到2260亿美元的高点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>Global X负责电子商务的研究分析师佩德罗·帕兰德拉尼(Pedro Palandrani)表示：“我们认为，这场大流行不仅加速了电子商务在全球的采用，还扩大了市场。”</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie在其数字战略上投资了数亿美元，强调通过改进公司网站以及为在线购买建立店内退货和提货等举措，从数字体验平稳过渡到店内体验。Horowitz表示，疫情的到来促使Abercrombie关闭了全球130家门店和该品牌50%的旗舰店，使过去10年关闭的门店总数达到约500家，同时战略性地开设了一些重要的新店。</blockquote></p><p> “Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p><p><blockquote>“商店很重要，但它们必须是合适的规模、合适的位置和合适的经济效益，”她说。“你把它和数字结合在一起，它就等于魔法。”</blockquote></p><p> Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p><p><blockquote>B.Riley Securities分析师苏珊·安德森(Susan Anderson)表示，实体店不仅是吸引亲自购物者的经济高效的方式，而且还可以作为在线提货和退货以及本地运输的重要配送中心。近年来，即使是Warby Parker(WRBY)等在线零售商也扩大了实体业务，以适应购物者的偏好。“消费者希望随时随地购物，”安德森说。</blockquote></p><p> That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种行为会以意想不到的方式演变。商场和实体店在精通数字技术的青少年和年轻人中越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，设计公司BHDP委托对1,000名购物者进行的一项调查显示，55%的14至17岁青少年表示他们现在在室内购物中心购物，90%的人计划明年去购物中心。接受调查的18至24岁购物者也回到商场，试穿产品，利用店内促销活动，并进行退货。德勤(Deloitte)美国零售和分销副主席罗德·赛德斯(Rod Sides)表示，这种转变导致零售商放弃了对特定人群的旧观点和假设。</blockquote></p><p> The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p><p><blockquote>疫情期间的战略转变使许多零售商在今年购物中心和市中心的重新开放中处于更好的位置——购物者渴望打开钱包。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，一些消费者变得出乎意料地富有。他们获得了刺激付款，从旅行费用下降中节省下来，并看到市场飙升。如今，所有收入水平的消费者储蓄都处于或接近创纪录水平。德勤(Deloitte)的一项年度研究发现，富裕家庭计划在这个假期的支出比去年增加15%，平均每户2,624美元，推动了假期的大部分增长。</blockquote></p><p> “You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示：“你有大量现金，而且有相当多被压抑的需求。”</blockquote></p><p> Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国人口普查局的数据，9月份零售和食品服务销售额估计增至6250亿美元，比10月份增长0.7%，同比增长13.9%。仅零售额就比8月份增长了0.8%。花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示：“我们预计9月份会出现一些回调，但我们没有。”</blockquote></p><p> Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p><p><blockquote>全国零售联合会主席兼首席执行官马修·谢伊(Matthew Shay)在10月份的媒体吹风会上表示，进入假期，零售商比十年前健康得多。万事达卡年度支出指数预测，本季美国零售额将增长7.4%，其中服装、百货商店、珠宝和奢侈品将大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p><p><blockquote>以格子呢面料和围巾闻名的奢侈品零售商博柏利集团(BRBY.UK)上周表示，2022财年上半年可比销售额增长37%，全价销售额正以两位数的速度增长。Coach母公司Tapestry(TPR)公布的第一财季财报好于预期，上调了2022年销售额和利润预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师看好零售业，考恩表示，“许多奢侈品牌已经成功地应对了价格上涨，并可能受益于美国和国际上历史上强劲的消费者资产负债表。”Wolfe Research青睐Nordstrom和Tapestry等公司，分析师在一份报告中写道，“美国消费者支出的几乎所有主要驱动因素都青睐高端产品。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，更多的美国人开始来到购物中心。Placer.ai购物中心——流量统计显示，与2019年相比，10月份室内购物中心的客流量增长了3%，室外购物中心的客流量增长了5%——这是购物中心商店库存飙升的原因之一。拥有这些购物中心的西蒙地产集团(SPG)的股价在2021年上涨了约90%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p><p><blockquote>泰森斯高级营销经理林赛·佩塔克(Lindsay Petak)表示：“随着越来越多的人完全接种疫苗，再加上许多人出于供应链担忧为即将到来的假期提前购物，自7月份以来，我们看到客流量稳步上升。”华盛顿地区的角落中心。该购物中心归Macerich(MAC)所有，该公司的股价今年也几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都加剧了遭受重创的零售商多年来的股价上涨。过去一年，SPDR S&amp;P零售交易所交易基金(XRT)上涨了85%，而标普500则上涨了33%。景顺标普500等权重非必需消费品ETF（RCD）今年的表现优于标普500 5个百分点，这表明投资者仍然看好零售销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p><p><blockquote>NRF的谢伊说：“我们看到百货商店、服装和非必需消费品零售商在经济重新开放后就真正反弹了。”“根据我们所做的消费者调查工作，百货商店始终是节日期间的热门目的地……它们继续位居今年人们购物场所的榜首。”</blockquote></p><p> All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，分析师和投资者仍然对实体店所扮演的角色充满信心，实体店可能看起来与在线商店不同，但它们将继续存在。</blockquote></p><p> The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，零售业复兴是否可持续还没有定论。零售商在远离正常的宏观经济环境中运营，这使得任何猜测都更具投机性。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师珍妮·斯蒂彻特(Janine Stichter)表示：“我认为我们还没有正常的洞察力，因为目前整个业务存在太多复杂性。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>企业正在努力应对持续的供应链担忧、通胀压力和持续的劳动力短缺，尽管所有迹象都表明假日季度表现强劲，但这些问题可能会影响盈利。“供应链问题是真实存在的，”霍洛维茨说。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie在第二季度收益看涨期权中表示，由于供应链限制，该公司预计销售将受到适度影响，而更大的影响来自运费通胀。</blockquote></p><p> To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团的克拉克表示，为了缓解供应链压力，零售商鼓励消费者尽早开始购物，这一趋势可能会扭曲年终销售数据。如果购物者提前购买礼物，与往年相比，11月和12月的礼物数量可能会有所下降。“这并不一定是支出疲软得多；只是几个月的分布不同，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p><p><blockquote>Stichter表示，另一方面，低库存将为零售商提供更高的定价权，有助于抵消供应链中断。波士顿学院经济学家萨沙·托米奇表示，虽然这对零售商有利，但可能会进一步推高价格。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行洛克伍德顾问公司首席投资官马修·福雷斯特表示，无论风险如何，强劲的业绩都不会永远持续下去。“总体而言，美国经济明显放缓，”他说。“明年我们将放缓。此外，随着我们恢复趋势增长，这正是可能发生的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，随着刺激措施的继续减少，经济最终将退出兴奋状态。他表示，虽然下降可能并不“可怕”，但消费者支出仍将较目前有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p><p><blockquote>不过，Abercrombie正在其实体店的帮助下克服逆风。该公司计划在商店放置更多库存，并将电子商务订单发送到商店，并与Uber、Shipt和Postmates合作提供当天送达服务。</blockquote></p><p> Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p><p><blockquote>其他零售商已经将供应链解决方案掌握在自己手中。特种服装公司American Eagle Outfitters(AEO)最近宣布将收购市中心附近自动化配送中心运营商Quiet Logistics，就在几周前，该公司收购了专注于中英里物流（将产品从仓库运送到零售店）的AirTerra。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>“我们将继续这样做，”霍洛维茨说。</blockquote></p><p> As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p><p><blockquote>随着零售商的前进，末日预言家可能不得不推迟预示零售业的末日。目前，人们的情绪很明显：消费者正在重新发现实体购物的乐趣。商场又变得凉爽了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-14 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p><p><blockquote>当疫情袭击美国经济时，Abercrombie&amp;Fitch的前景似乎很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie（股票代码：ANF）曾经是购物中心的主食，以鲜明、性感的广告和深色、香水味十足的商店俘获了青少年的心和钱包，但其股价在2017年创下新低。购物者对该品牌的厌恶和商场客流量的稳步下降给其未来蒙上了阴影。然后，在2020年3月，冠状病毒开始关闭全国各地的商场和商店。</blockquote></p><p> The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p><p><blockquote>零售业的末日似乎即将夺走另一个受害者。</blockquote></p><p> But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p><p><blockquote>但在去葬礼的路上发生了令人惊讶的事情：Abercrombie享受了自2000年代全盛时期以来最好的一年。在首席执行官弗兰·霍洛维茨(Fran Horowitz)的领导下，该公司进行了品牌重塑，发布了更具包容性的信息，并将重点转向年轻专业人士，同时针对青少年微调了霍利斯特品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p><p><blockquote>截至7月31日，该公司第二财季收入同比增长24%，较大流行前水平增长3%。随着现金充裕的购物者涌向商店，其股价今年上涨了120%。</blockquote></p><p> “Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p><p><blockquote>霍洛维茨在接受采访时表示：“品牌认知度很难改变，需要时间才能与消费者重新建立信任。”<i>巴伦周刊</i>.“因此，我们很高兴地说，在2021年，我们显然看到了所有这些努力工作的美妙效果。”</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie并不是唯一一个进入新增长期的零售品牌。在过去的一年里，许多美国零售商不仅走出了深渊，还利用疫情带来的宏观经济变化，推动自己进入了意想不到的复兴。</blockquote></p><p> Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的市场和急于花掉疫情积蓄的消费者的推动下，成功将实体业务与数字战略相结合的品牌销售额飙升，股价上涨。许多大型购物中心零售商的股价飙升，包括梅西百货(M)、诺德斯特龙(JWN)、著名鞋类母公司Caleres(CAL)和Signet Jewelers(SIG)，这些公司在过去12个月内都上涨了至少100%。</blockquote></p><p> These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司现在准备从可能创纪录的假期中获益。根据全国零售联合会的数据，消费者可能会花费8510亿美元，比去年创纪录的7770亿美元增长9.5%，是过去五年4.4%平均增幅的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道这场派对是否会持续下去，或者这些商店是否只是在捕捉未来可能发生的销售。在零售销售正常化之前，企业需要应对一系列供应链和通胀压力，这些压力可能会抑制假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p><p><blockquote>但意外的复兴重申了许多品牌对实体店力量的信念。虽然他们仍在大力投资在线业务，但他们继续在实体未来上下大赌注。随着对实体店投资的继续，许多人曾经预期的实体零售商的消亡似乎不再那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>富裕家庭计划在这个假期平均花费2624美元，比去年增加15%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>疫情对零售商来说并不理想，但它提供了一些独特的机会。问题是显而易见的。人们害怕亲自购物。购物者——甚至是婴儿潮一代——以意想不到的数量涌向网上。亚马逊（AMZN）和沃尔玛（WMT）等零售巨头经历了有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> “The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p><p><blockquote>Columbia Threadneedle Investments零售分析师Mari Shor表示：“投资者情绪——尤其是短期对冲基金类型投资者——刚刚对该集团变得非常负面。”“我只是认为投资者并没有真正相信公司或消费者。”</blockquote></p><p> Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p><p><blockquote>肖尔表示，投资者的怀疑根源于这样一种观念，即传统零售商，无论是大流行前还是大流行后，都无法生存。</blockquote></p><p> But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情给了零售商一个难得的机会，让他们关闭表现不佳的门店，专注于优秀的门店。许多零售商还专注于在网上做得更好，并将销售策略转向消费者，无论他们何时何地想购物——无论是网上购物、移动购物还是店内购物。</blockquote></p><p> In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>萨克斯第五大道精品百货店(Saks Fifth Avenue)的母公司剥离了其电子商务部门，该部门目前预计将上市，目标估值为60亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，这种方法至关重要。据美国零售联合会估计，今年假期在线和其他非商店销售额预计将增长11%至15%，可能达到2260亿美元的高点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>Global X负责电子商务的研究分析师佩德罗·帕兰德拉尼(Pedro Palandrani)表示：“我们认为，这场大流行不仅加速了电子商务在全球的采用，还扩大了市场。”</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie在其数字战略上投资了数亿美元，强调通过改进公司网站以及为在线购买建立店内退货和提货等举措，从数字体验平稳过渡到店内体验。Horowitz表示，疫情的到来促使Abercrombie关闭了全球130家门店和该品牌50%的旗舰店，使过去10年关闭的门店总数达到约500家，同时战略性地开设了一些重要的新店。</blockquote></p><p> “Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p><p><blockquote>“商店很重要，但它们必须是合适的规模、合适的位置和合适的经济效益，”她说。“你把它和数字结合在一起，它就等于魔法。”</blockquote></p><p> Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p><p><blockquote>B.Riley Securities分析师苏珊·安德森(Susan Anderson)表示，实体店不仅是吸引亲自购物者的经济高效的方式，而且还可以作为在线提货和退货以及本地运输的重要配送中心。近年来，即使是Warby Parker(WRBY)等在线零售商也扩大了实体业务，以适应购物者的偏好。“消费者希望随时随地购物，”安德森说。</blockquote></p><p> That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种行为会以意想不到的方式演变。商场和实体店在精通数字技术的青少年和年轻人中越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，设计公司BHDP委托对1,000名购物者进行的一项调查显示，55%的14至17岁青少年表示他们现在在室内购物中心购物，90%的人计划明年去购物中心。接受调查的18至24岁购物者也回到商场，试穿产品，利用店内促销活动，并进行退货。德勤(Deloitte)美国零售和分销副主席罗德·赛德斯(Rod Sides)表示，这种转变导致零售商放弃了对特定人群的旧观点和假设。</blockquote></p><p> The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p><p><blockquote>疫情期间的战略转变使许多零售商在今年购物中心和市中心的重新开放中处于更好的位置——购物者渴望打开钱包。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，一些消费者变得出乎意料地富有。他们获得了刺激付款，从旅行费用下降中节省下来，并看到市场飙升。如今，所有收入水平的消费者储蓄都处于或接近创纪录水平。德勤(Deloitte)的一项年度研究发现，富裕家庭计划在这个假期的支出比去年增加15%，平均每户2,624美元，推动了假期的大部分增长。</blockquote></p><p> “You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示：“你有大量现金，而且有相当多被压抑的需求。”</blockquote></p><p> Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国人口普查局的数据，9月份零售和食品服务销售额估计增至6250亿美元，比10月份增长0.7%，同比增长13.9%。仅零售额就比8月份增长了0.8%。花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示：“我们预计9月份会出现一些回调，但我们没有。”</blockquote></p><p> Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p><p><blockquote>全国零售联合会主席兼首席执行官马修·谢伊(Matthew Shay)在10月份的媒体吹风会上表示，进入假期，零售商比十年前健康得多。万事达卡年度支出指数预测，本季美国零售额将增长7.4%，其中服装、百货商店、珠宝和奢侈品将大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p><p><blockquote>以格子呢面料和围巾闻名的奢侈品零售商博柏利集团(BRBY.UK)上周表示，2022财年上半年可比销售额增长37%，全价销售额正以两位数的速度增长。Coach母公司Tapestry(TPR)公布的第一财季财报好于预期，上调了2022年销售额和利润预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师看好零售业，考恩表示，“许多奢侈品牌已经成功地应对了价格上涨，并可能受益于美国和国际上历史上强劲的消费者资产负债表。”Wolfe Research青睐Nordstrom和Tapestry等公司，分析师在一份报告中写道，“美国消费者支出的几乎所有主要驱动因素都青睐高端产品。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，更多的美国人开始来到购物中心。Placer.ai购物中心——流量统计显示，与2019年相比，10月份室内购物中心的客流量增长了3%，室外购物中心的客流量增长了5%——这是购物中心商店库存飙升的原因之一。拥有这些购物中心的西蒙地产集团(SPG)的股价在2021年上涨了约90%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p><p><blockquote>泰森斯高级营销经理林赛·佩塔克(Lindsay Petak)表示：“随着越来越多的人完全接种疫苗，再加上许多人出于供应链担忧为即将到来的假期提前购物，自7月份以来，我们看到客流量稳步上升。”华盛顿地区的角落中心。该购物中心归Macerich(MAC)所有，该公司的股价今年也几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都加剧了遭受重创的零售商多年来的股价上涨。过去一年，SPDR S&amp;P零售交易所交易基金(XRT)上涨了85%，而标普500则上涨了33%。景顺标普500等权重非必需消费品ETF（RCD）今年的表现优于标普500 5个百分点，这表明投资者仍然看好零售销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p><p><blockquote>NRF的谢伊说：“我们看到百货商店、服装和非必需消费品零售商在经济重新开放后就真正反弹了。”“根据我们所做的消费者调查工作，百货商店始终是节日期间的热门目的地……它们继续位居今年人们购物场所的榜首。”</blockquote></p><p> All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，分析师和投资者仍然对实体店所扮演的角色充满信心，实体店可能看起来与在线商店不同，但它们将继续存在。</blockquote></p><p> The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，零售业复兴是否可持续还没有定论。零售商在远离正常的宏观经济环境中运营，这使得任何猜测都更具投机性。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师珍妮·斯蒂彻特(Janine Stichter)表示：“我认为我们还没有正常的洞察力，因为目前整个业务存在太多复杂性。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>企业正在努力应对持续的供应链担忧、通胀压力和持续的劳动力短缺，尽管所有迹象都表明假日季度表现强劲，但这些问题可能会影响盈利。“供应链问题是真实存在的，”霍洛维茨说。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie在第二季度收益看涨期权中表示，由于供应链限制，该公司预计销售将受到适度影响，而更大的影响来自运费通胀。</blockquote></p><p> To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团的克拉克表示，为了缓解供应链压力，零售商鼓励消费者尽早开始购物，这一趋势可能会扭曲年终销售数据。如果购物者提前购买礼物，与往年相比，11月和12月的礼物数量可能会有所下降。“这并不一定是支出疲软得多；只是几个月的分布不同，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p><p><blockquote>Stichter表示，另一方面，低库存将为零售商提供更高的定价权，有助于抵消供应链中断。波士顿学院经济学家萨沙·托米奇表示，虽然这对零售商有利，但可能会进一步推高价格。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行洛克伍德顾问公司首席投资官马修·福雷斯特表示，无论风险如何，强劲的业绩都不会永远持续下去。“总体而言，美国经济明显放缓，”他说。“明年我们将放缓。此外，随着我们恢复趋势增长，这正是可能发生的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，随着刺激措施的继续减少，经济最终将退出兴奋状态。他表示，虽然下降可能并不“可怕”，但消费者支出仍将较目前有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p><p><blockquote>不过，Abercrombie正在其实体店的帮助下克服逆风。该公司计划在商店放置更多库存，并将电子商务订单发送到商店，并与Uber、Shipt和Postmates合作提供当天送达服务。</blockquote></p><p> Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p><p><blockquote>其他零售商已经将供应链解决方案掌握在自己手中。特种服装公司American Eagle Outfitters(AEO)最近宣布将收购市中心附近自动化配送中心运营商Quiet Logistics，就在几周前，该公司收购了专注于中英里物流（将产品从仓库运送到零售店）的AirTerra。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>“我们将继续这样做，”霍洛维茨说。</blockquote></p><p> As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p><p><blockquote>随着零售商的前进，末日预言家可能不得不推迟预示零售业的末日。目前，人们的情绪很明显：消费者正在重新发现实体购物的乐趣。商场又变得凉爽了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛","RCD":"READY CAPITAL CORPORATION 9.00% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2029","AMZN":"亚马逊","ANF":"爱芬奇","BBRYF":"Burberry Group Plc","M":"梅西百货","BRBY.UK":"巴宝莉","TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","JWN":"诺德斯特龙","CAL":"Caleres鞋业","SIG":"西格内特珠宝"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159096163","content_text":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.\nThe retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.\nBut something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.\nRevenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.\n“Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with Barron’s. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”\nAbercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.\nBrands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including Macy’s (M),Nordstrom (JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres (CAL), and Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.\nThese companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.\nNo one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.\nBut the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.\nWealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.\nThe pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as Amazon.com (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.\n“The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”\nShor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.\nBut the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.\nIn one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.\nSuch approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.\n“We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.\nAbercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.\n“Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”\nNot only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.\nThat behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.\nAccording to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.\nThe shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.\nDuring the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.\n“You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.\nRetail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.\nRetailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly Mastercard spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.\nLuxury retailer Burberry Group (BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And Tapestry (TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.\nSome analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”\nMeanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.\n“With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.\nAll of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the SPDR S&P Retail exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&P 500 rose 33%. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.\n“We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”\nAll that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.\nThe verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.\n“I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.\nCompanies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.\nAbercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.\nTo ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.\nOn the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.\nWhatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”\nThe economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.\nAbercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.\nOther retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.\n“We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.\nAs retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9,"CAL":0.9,"BRBY.UK":0.9,"TPR":0.9,"SIG":0.9,"JWN":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"BBRYF":0.9,"RCD":0.9,"M":0.9,"ANF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873875641,"gmtCreate":1636933924328,"gmtModify":1636933924328,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099624987861330","idStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873875641","repostId":"1135817623","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873872783,"gmtCreate":1636933888801,"gmtModify":1636933888801,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099624987861330","idStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873872783","repostId":"2183232043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873974094,"gmtCreate":1636852709186,"gmtModify":1636852709186,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099624987861330","idStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873974094","repostId":"1116750872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116750872","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1636761765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116750872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?<blockquote>Meta Platforms本周收盘强劲：期权交易者的目标是历史高点吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116750872","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Meta Platforms Inc is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off","content":"<p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b>&nbsp;is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>元平台公司</b>到目前为止，本周收盘强劲，上涨近3.5%，仅比周高点低7美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than&nbsp;672,970 options with 476,002&nbsp;being calls and 196,968&nbsp;being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>虽然股票交易量稳定在1700万股，而10天平均水平为2100万股，但期权交易者当天相当活跃，交易了超过672,970份期权，其中476,002份是评级期权，196,968份是看跌期权。这意味着每10个选项中就有7个是评级（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08237f8d7c163047e56072f027073d5\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>What It Matters:</b>Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000&nbsp;options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.</p><p><blockquote><b>重要的是：</b>本周五之前，共有1,519,000份评级和1,207,750份看跌期权，期权总数为2,726,000份。因此，本周五的期权活动和流量为672,970笔，占期权总流量的25%。</blockquote></p><p> Any time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>股票在一天内交易总期权的25%时，这意味着期权交易商对股票尤为活跃。</blockquote></p><p> Of note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970&nbsp;options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，只有11%的期权将于本周五到期（约300,000份期权），因此今天的672,970份期权表明了更多的前瞻性流动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's Next:</b>Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).</p><p><blockquote><b>下一步是什么：</b>看看下周11月19日到期的期权流，您可以看到看涨期权方面的大部分成交量和未平仓合约在330美元至360美元之间。在看跌方面，在340美元和300美元之间有一个持续但较小的成交量（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74f74fdf39ce74de7e0d6a88eb349c8\" tg-width=\"1743\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This suggests bullish traders are targeting&nbsp;between $330 and $360, but don't have&nbsp;much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.</p><p><blockquote>这表明看涨交易者的目标在330美元至360美元之间，但对此没有太大兴趣。与此同时，看跌期权交易者认为300美元以下不会有太大下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，从340美元到300美元的稳定看跌期权交易量似乎是看涨交易者出售现金担保看跌期权至322.5美元的组合，但多头股票交易者可能会寻求低于该水平的保护，因为溢价非常低。</blockquote></p><p> Hence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看涨交易者希望看到360美元的罢工在下周之前被清除，以提高他们的预期，而空头则希望看到每周收盘价低于300美元以打开下行空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?<blockquote>Meta Platforms本周收盘强劲：期权交易者的目标是历史高点吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?<blockquote>Meta Platforms本周收盘强劲：期权交易者的目标是历史高点吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-13 08:02</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b>&nbsp;is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>元平台公司</b>到目前为止，本周收盘强劲，上涨近3.5%，仅比周高点低7美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than&nbsp;672,970 options with 476,002&nbsp;being calls and 196,968&nbsp;being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>虽然股票交易量稳定在1700万股，而10天平均水平为2100万股，但期权交易者当天相当活跃，交易了超过672,970份期权，其中476,002份是评级期权，196,968份是看跌期权。这意味着每10个选项中就有7个是评级（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08237f8d7c163047e56072f027073d5\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>What It Matters:</b>Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000&nbsp;options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.</p><p><blockquote><b>重要的是：</b>本周五之前，共有1,519,000份评级和1,207,750份看跌期权，期权总数为2,726,000份。因此，本周五的期权活动和流量为672,970笔，占期权总流量的25%。</blockquote></p><p> Any time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>股票在一天内交易总期权的25%时，这意味着期权交易商对股票尤为活跃。</blockquote></p><p> Of note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970&nbsp;options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，只有11%的期权将于本周五到期（约300,000份期权），因此今天的672,970份期权表明了更多的前瞻性流动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's Next:</b>Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).</p><p><blockquote><b>下一步是什么：</b>看看下周11月19日到期的期权流，您可以看到看涨期权方面的大部分成交量和未平仓合约在330美元至360美元之间。在看跌方面，在340美元和300美元之间有一个持续但较小的成交量（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74f74fdf39ce74de7e0d6a88eb349c8\" tg-width=\"1743\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This suggests bullish traders are targeting&nbsp;between $330 and $360, but don't have&nbsp;much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.</p><p><blockquote>这表明看涨交易者的目标在330美元至360美元之间，但对此没有太大兴趣。与此同时，看跌期权交易者认为300美元以下不会有太大下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，从340美元到300美元的稳定看跌期权交易量似乎是看涨交易者出售现金担保看跌期权至322.5美元的组合，但多头股票交易者可能会寻求低于该水平的保护，因为溢价非常低。</blockquote></p><p> Hence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看涨交易者希望看到360美元的罢工在下周之前被清除，以提高他们的预期，而空头则希望看到每周收盘价低于300美元以打开下行空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116750872","content_text":"Meta Platforms Inc is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.\nWhat Happened: While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than 672,970 options with 476,002 being calls and 196,968 being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).\n\nWhat It Matters:Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000 options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.\nAny time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.\nOf note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970 options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.\nWhat's Next:Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).\n\nThis suggests bullish traders are targeting between $330 and $360, but don't have much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.\nIt should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.\nHence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873975687,"gmtCreate":1636852670771,"gmtModify":1636852670771,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099624987861330","idStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873975687","repostId":"1129004768","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129004768","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636764434,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129004768?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊市论点及其错误的原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129004768","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许苹果公司并不是同样值得买入的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只今天值得在未来几年持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果(AAPL)再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，出售（或做空）这只股票的理由并不成立，而且我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌情况要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。像New Street的Pierre Ferragu和Satori Fund的Dan Niles这样的专家是我想到的少数几个，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌AAPL的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常以不同的方式表述，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在2020年疫情最严重的时候转化为收入和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13发布之后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为iPhone 13只是对上一款机型的小幅升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和节后季度开始面临无法克服的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表还显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度中，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。销售额从2019-2020财年转移到2021财年的一个可能原因是苹果进入5G领域较晚。忠于或只是喜欢iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一下子就完成了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这也可能有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去6至12个月内飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一款能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自2015年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020财年第四季度同比下降了29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，每个季度的收入都至少增长了57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最终，在过去的12个季度（大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命）中，苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能有所上涨，这一数字几乎不能代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为接下来对苹果产品的需求会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，特别是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果经常被提及的另一个主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯(Dan Niles)表示，明年26倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与温和的增长预期相比，这个市盈率看起来太高了。分析师预计，到2025财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长4%。Alphabet(GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期盈利每年将增长16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（市盈率超过长期每股收益增长）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊(AMZN)在这一指标上远远落后于第二名，为2.3倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个支持苹果的好理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的看门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象表明，苹果今年夏天iOS隐私政策的变化一直在损害社交媒体公司，它们的财务报表导致纳斯达克在几分钟内市值飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们应该为股票支付溢价吗？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，苹果的远期市盈率相对于几年前肯定有所扩大。但多年来的上涨似乎与(1)对苹果产品和服务的需求增加浪潮、(2)利润率提高、(3)2020年利率下降以及(4)广泛的股市一致市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前AAPL的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了大约三圈，并回到了2021年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>经常提到的投资苹果的下一个风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13在几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备的更新阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与一只股票在11月至1月期间季节性表现往往较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能辩称，由于未来几个季度的业绩艰难，投资者可能很难在未来几个月内找到购买苹果公司的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但在这里，我认为需要一点耐心。首先，仅最近股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前已经更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太大好处是否已纳入分析师的财务模型，因此也无法正确定价到股票中。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队运营的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（与上述风险#1相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总之</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不像我在2021年2月或更好的2018年4月那样是一个巨大的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票毫无理由地遭到抛售。但我仍然认为，苹果公司是一只值得在未来几年持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始重估至去年同期的水平。如果苹果短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有发生有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊市论点及其错误的原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊市论点及其错误的原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许苹果公司并不是同样值得买入的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只今天值得在未来几年持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果(AAPL)再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，出售（或做空）这只股票的理由并不成立，而且我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌情况要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。像New Street的Pierre Ferragu和Satori Fund的Dan Niles这样的专家是我想到的少数几个，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌AAPL的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常以不同的方式表述，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在2020年疫情最严重的时候转化为收入和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13发布之后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为iPhone 13只是对上一款机型的小幅升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和节后季度开始面临无法克服的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表还显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度中，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。销售额从2019-2020财年转移到2021财年的一个可能原因是苹果进入5G领域较晚。忠于或只是喜欢iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一下子就完成了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这也可能有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去6至12个月内飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一款能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自2015年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020财年第四季度同比下降了29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，每个季度的收入都至少增长了57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最终，在过去的12个季度（大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命）中，苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能有所上涨，这一数字几乎不能代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为接下来对苹果产品的需求会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，特别是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果经常被提及的另一个主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯(Dan Niles)表示，明年26倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与温和的增长预期相比，这个市盈率看起来太高了。分析师预计，到2025财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长4%。Alphabet(GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期盈利每年将增长16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（市盈率超过长期每股收益增长）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊(AMZN)在这一指标上远远落后于第二名，为2.3倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个支持苹果的好理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的看门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象表明，苹果今年夏天iOS隐私政策的变化一直在损害社交媒体公司，它们的财务报表导致纳斯达克在几分钟内市值飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们应该为股票支付溢价吗？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，苹果的远期市盈率相对于几年前肯定有所扩大。但多年来的上涨似乎与(1)对苹果产品和服务的需求增加浪潮、(2)利润率提高、(3)2020年利率下降以及(4)广泛的股市一致市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前AAPL的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了大约三圈，并回到了2021年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>经常提到的投资苹果的下一个风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13在几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备的更新阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与一只股票在11月至1月期间季节性表现往往较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能辩称，由于未来几个季度的业绩艰难，投资者可能很难在未来几个月内找到购买苹果公司的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但在这里，我认为需要一点耐心。首先，仅最近股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前已经更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太大好处是否已纳入分析师的财务模型，因此也无法正确定价到股票中。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队运营的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（与上述风险#1相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总之</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不像我在2021年2月或更好的2018年4月那样是一个巨大的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票毫无理由地遭到抛售。但我仍然认为，苹果公司是一只值得在未来几年持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始重估至去年同期的水平。如果苹果短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有发生有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129004768","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.\nI list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nMaybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.\n\nkmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.\nBelow, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nKey risk #1: drop-off in demand\nNot many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's Pierre Ferragu and Satori Fund's Dan Niles are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.\nThe first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.\nI see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\nThis may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.\nIn the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.\nKey risk #2: valuation\nThe other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.\nThat, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.\nFirst, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer have been hurting social media companies and their financial statements led to the Nasdaqe rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.\nData by YCharts\nAlso, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.\nKey risk #3: lack of positive catalysts\nThe next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and so has the refreshed lineup of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.\nBut here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.\nI have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and autonomous vehicle has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.\nIn summary\nApple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be in February 2021 or, better yet,in April 2018 – in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879432955,"gmtCreate":1636761882097,"gmtModify":1636761882097,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099624987861330","idStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879432955","repostId":"2182100092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436495,"gmtCreate":1636761851903,"gmtModify":1636761851985,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099624987861330","idStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436495","repostId":"2182094779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436269,"gmtCreate":1636761832835,"gmtModify":1636761832835,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099624987861330","idStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436269","repostId":"2182236092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436852,"gmtCreate":1636761814810,"gmtModify":1636761814810,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099624987861330","idStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436852","repostId":"2182153840","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436325,"gmtCreate":1636761787365,"gmtModify":1636761787365,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099624987861330","idStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436325","repostId":"1193642637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":873874034,"gmtCreate":1636933962173,"gmtModify":1636933962173,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873874034","repostId":"1159096163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159096163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636851053,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159096163?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-14 08:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159096163","media":"Barrons","summary":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce","content":"<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p><p><blockquote>当疫情袭击美国经济时，Abercrombie&amp;Fitch的前景似乎很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie（股票代码：ANF）曾经是购物中心的主食，以鲜明、性感的广告和深色、香水味十足的商店俘获了青少年的心和钱包，但其股价在2017年创下新低。购物者对该品牌的厌恶和商场客流量的稳步下降给其未来蒙上了阴影。然后，在2020年3月，冠状病毒开始关闭全国各地的商场和商店。</blockquote></p><p> The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p><p><blockquote>零售业的末日似乎即将夺走另一个受害者。</blockquote></p><p> But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p><p><blockquote>但在去葬礼的路上发生了令人惊讶的事情：Abercrombie享受了自2000年代全盛时期以来最好的一年。在首席执行官弗兰·霍洛维茨(Fran Horowitz)的领导下，该公司进行了品牌重塑，发布了更具包容性的信息，并将重点转向年轻专业人士，同时针对青少年微调了霍利斯特品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p><p><blockquote>截至7月31日，该公司第二财季收入同比增长24%，较大流行前水平增长3%。随着现金充裕的购物者涌向商店，其股价今年上涨了120%。</blockquote></p><p> “Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p><p><blockquote>霍洛维茨在接受采访时表示：“品牌认知度很难改变，需要时间才能与消费者重新建立信任。”<i>巴伦周刊</i>.“因此，我们很高兴地说，在2021年，我们显然看到了所有这些努力工作的美妙效果。”</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie并不是唯一一个进入新增长期的零售品牌。在过去的一年里，许多美国零售商不仅走出了深渊，还利用疫情带来的宏观经济变化，推动自己进入了意想不到的复兴。</blockquote></p><p> Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的市场和急于花掉疫情积蓄的消费者的推动下，成功将实体业务与数字战略相结合的品牌销售额飙升，股价上涨。许多大型购物中心零售商的股价飙升，包括梅西百货(M)、诺德斯特龙(JWN)、著名鞋类母公司Caleres(CAL)和Signet Jewelers(SIG)，这些公司在过去12个月内都上涨了至少100%。</blockquote></p><p> These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司现在准备从可能创纪录的假期中获益。根据全国零售联合会的数据，消费者可能会花费8510亿美元，比去年创纪录的7770亿美元增长9.5%，是过去五年4.4%平均增幅的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道这场派对是否会持续下去，或者这些商店是否只是在捕捉未来可能发生的销售。在零售销售正常化之前，企业需要应对一系列供应链和通胀压力，这些压力可能会抑制假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p><p><blockquote>但意外的复兴重申了许多品牌对实体店力量的信念。虽然他们仍在大力投资在线业务，但他们继续在实体未来上下大赌注。随着对实体店投资的继续，许多人曾经预期的实体零售商的消亡似乎不再那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>富裕家庭计划在这个假期平均花费2624美元，比去年增加15%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>疫情对零售商来说并不理想，但它提供了一些独特的机会。问题是显而易见的。人们害怕亲自购物。购物者——甚至是婴儿潮一代——以意想不到的数量涌向网上。亚马逊（AMZN）和沃尔玛（WMT）等零售巨头经历了有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> “The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p><p><blockquote>Columbia Threadneedle Investments零售分析师Mari Shor表示：“投资者情绪——尤其是短期对冲基金类型投资者——刚刚对该集团变得非常负面。”“我只是认为投资者并没有真正相信公司或消费者。”</blockquote></p><p> Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p><p><blockquote>肖尔表示，投资者的怀疑根源于这样一种观念，即传统零售商，无论是大流行前还是大流行后，都无法生存。</blockquote></p><p> But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情给了零售商一个难得的机会，让他们关闭表现不佳的门店，专注于优秀的门店。许多零售商还专注于在网上做得更好，并将销售策略转向消费者，无论他们何时何地想购物——无论是网上购物、移动购物还是店内购物。</blockquote></p><p> In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>萨克斯第五大道精品百货店(Saks Fifth Avenue)的母公司剥离了其电子商务部门，该部门目前预计将上市，目标估值为60亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，这种方法至关重要。据美国零售联合会估计，今年假期在线和其他非商店销售额预计将增长11%至15%，可能达到2260亿美元的高点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>Global X负责电子商务的研究分析师佩德罗·帕兰德拉尼(Pedro Palandrani)表示：“我们认为，这场大流行不仅加速了电子商务在全球的采用，还扩大了市场。”</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie在其数字战略上投资了数亿美元，强调通过改进公司网站以及为在线购买建立店内退货和提货等举措，从数字体验平稳过渡到店内体验。Horowitz表示，疫情的到来促使Abercrombie关闭了全球130家门店和该品牌50%的旗舰店，使过去10年关闭的门店总数达到约500家，同时战略性地开设了一些重要的新店。</blockquote></p><p> “Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p><p><blockquote>“商店很重要，但它们必须是合适的规模、合适的位置和合适的经济效益，”她说。“你把它和数字结合在一起，它就等于魔法。”</blockquote></p><p> Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p><p><blockquote>B.Riley Securities分析师苏珊·安德森(Susan Anderson)表示，实体店不仅是吸引亲自购物者的经济高效的方式，而且还可以作为在线提货和退货以及本地运输的重要配送中心。近年来，即使是Warby Parker(WRBY)等在线零售商也扩大了实体业务，以适应购物者的偏好。“消费者希望随时随地购物，”安德森说。</blockquote></p><p> That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种行为会以意想不到的方式演变。商场和实体店在精通数字技术的青少年和年轻人中越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，设计公司BHDP委托对1,000名购物者进行的一项调查显示，55%的14至17岁青少年表示他们现在在室内购物中心购物，90%的人计划明年去购物中心。接受调查的18至24岁购物者也回到商场，试穿产品，利用店内促销活动，并进行退货。德勤(Deloitte)美国零售和分销副主席罗德·赛德斯(Rod Sides)表示，这种转变导致零售商放弃了对特定人群的旧观点和假设。</blockquote></p><p> The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p><p><blockquote>疫情期间的战略转变使许多零售商在今年购物中心和市中心的重新开放中处于更好的位置——购物者渴望打开钱包。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，一些消费者变得出乎意料地富有。他们获得了刺激付款，从旅行费用下降中节省下来，并看到市场飙升。如今，所有收入水平的消费者储蓄都处于或接近创纪录水平。德勤(Deloitte)的一项年度研究发现，富裕家庭计划在这个假期的支出比去年增加15%，平均每户2,624美元，推动了假期的大部分增长。</blockquote></p><p> “You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示：“你有大量现金，而且有相当多被压抑的需求。”</blockquote></p><p> Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国人口普查局的数据，9月份零售和食品服务销售额估计增至6250亿美元，比10月份增长0.7%，同比增长13.9%。仅零售额就比8月份增长了0.8%。花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示：“我们预计9月份会出现一些回调，但我们没有。”</blockquote></p><p> Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p><p><blockquote>全国零售联合会主席兼首席执行官马修·谢伊(Matthew Shay)在10月份的媒体吹风会上表示，进入假期，零售商比十年前健康得多。万事达卡年度支出指数预测，本季美国零售额将增长7.4%，其中服装、百货商店、珠宝和奢侈品将大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p><p><blockquote>以格子呢面料和围巾闻名的奢侈品零售商博柏利集团(BRBY.UK)上周表示，2022财年上半年可比销售额增长37%，全价销售额正以两位数的速度增长。Coach母公司Tapestry(TPR)公布的第一财季财报好于预期，上调了2022年销售额和利润预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师看好零售业，考恩表示，“许多奢侈品牌已经成功地应对了价格上涨，并可能受益于美国和国际上历史上强劲的消费者资产负债表。”Wolfe Research青睐Nordstrom和Tapestry等公司，分析师在一份报告中写道，“美国消费者支出的几乎所有主要驱动因素都青睐高端产品。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，更多的美国人开始来到购物中心。Placer.ai购物中心——流量统计显示，与2019年相比，10月份室内购物中心的客流量增长了3%，室外购物中心的客流量增长了5%——这是购物中心商店库存飙升的原因之一。拥有这些购物中心的西蒙地产集团(SPG)的股价在2021年上涨了约90%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p><p><blockquote>泰森斯高级营销经理林赛·佩塔克(Lindsay Petak)表示：“随着越来越多的人完全接种疫苗，再加上许多人出于供应链担忧为即将到来的假期提前购物，自7月份以来，我们看到客流量稳步上升。”华盛顿地区的角落中心。该购物中心归Macerich(MAC)所有，该公司的股价今年也几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都加剧了遭受重创的零售商多年来的股价上涨。过去一年，SPDR S&amp;P零售交易所交易基金(XRT)上涨了85%，而标普500则上涨了33%。景顺标普500等权重非必需消费品ETF（RCD）今年的表现优于标普500 5个百分点，这表明投资者仍然看好零售销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p><p><blockquote>NRF的谢伊说：“我们看到百货商店、服装和非必需消费品零售商在经济重新开放后就真正反弹了。”“根据我们所做的消费者调查工作，百货商店始终是节日期间的热门目的地……它们继续位居今年人们购物场所的榜首。”</blockquote></p><p> All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，分析师和投资者仍然对实体店所扮演的角色充满信心，实体店可能看起来与在线商店不同，但它们将继续存在。</blockquote></p><p> The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，零售业复兴是否可持续还没有定论。零售商在远离正常的宏观经济环境中运营，这使得任何猜测都更具投机性。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师珍妮·斯蒂彻特(Janine Stichter)表示：“我认为我们还没有正常的洞察力，因为目前整个业务存在太多复杂性。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>企业正在努力应对持续的供应链担忧、通胀压力和持续的劳动力短缺，尽管所有迹象都表明假日季度表现强劲，但这些问题可能会影响盈利。“供应链问题是真实存在的，”霍洛维茨说。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie在第二季度收益看涨期权中表示，由于供应链限制，该公司预计销售将受到适度影响，而更大的影响来自运费通胀。</blockquote></p><p> To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团的克拉克表示，为了缓解供应链压力，零售商鼓励消费者尽早开始购物，这一趋势可能会扭曲年终销售数据。如果购物者提前购买礼物，与往年相比，11月和12月的礼物数量可能会有所下降。“这并不一定是支出疲软得多；只是几个月的分布不同，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p><p><blockquote>Stichter表示，另一方面，低库存将为零售商提供更高的定价权，有助于抵消供应链中断。波士顿学院经济学家萨沙·托米奇表示，虽然这对零售商有利，但可能会进一步推高价格。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行洛克伍德顾问公司首席投资官马修·福雷斯特表示，无论风险如何，强劲的业绩都不会永远持续下去。“总体而言，美国经济明显放缓，”他说。“明年我们将放缓。此外，随着我们恢复趋势增长，这正是可能发生的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，随着刺激措施的继续减少，经济最终将退出兴奋状态。他表示，虽然下降可能并不“可怕”，但消费者支出仍将较目前有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p><p><blockquote>不过，Abercrombie正在其实体店的帮助下克服逆风。该公司计划在商店放置更多库存，并将电子商务订单发送到商店，并与Uber、Shipt和Postmates合作提供当天送达服务。</blockquote></p><p> Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p><p><blockquote>其他零售商已经将供应链解决方案掌握在自己手中。特种服装公司American Eagle Outfitters(AEO)最近宣布将收购市中心附近自动化配送中心运营商Quiet Logistics，就在几周前，该公司收购了专注于中英里物流（将产品从仓库运送到零售店）的AirTerra。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>“我们将继续这样做，”霍洛维茨说。</blockquote></p><p> As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p><p><blockquote>随着零售商的前进，末日预言家可能不得不推迟预示零售业的末日。目前，人们的情绪很明显：消费者正在重新发现实体购物的乐趣。商场又变得凉爽了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-14 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p><p><blockquote>当疫情袭击美国经济时，Abercrombie&amp;Fitch的前景似乎很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie（股票代码：ANF）曾经是购物中心的主食，以鲜明、性感的广告和深色、香水味十足的商店俘获了青少年的心和钱包，但其股价在2017年创下新低。购物者对该品牌的厌恶和商场客流量的稳步下降给其未来蒙上了阴影。然后，在2020年3月，冠状病毒开始关闭全国各地的商场和商店。</blockquote></p><p> The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p><p><blockquote>零售业的末日似乎即将夺走另一个受害者。</blockquote></p><p> But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p><p><blockquote>但在去葬礼的路上发生了令人惊讶的事情：Abercrombie享受了自2000年代全盛时期以来最好的一年。在首席执行官弗兰·霍洛维茨(Fran Horowitz)的领导下，该公司进行了品牌重塑，发布了更具包容性的信息，并将重点转向年轻专业人士，同时针对青少年微调了霍利斯特品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p><p><blockquote>截至7月31日，该公司第二财季收入同比增长24%，较大流行前水平增长3%。随着现金充裕的购物者涌向商店，其股价今年上涨了120%。</blockquote></p><p> “Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p><p><blockquote>霍洛维茨在接受采访时表示：“品牌认知度很难改变，需要时间才能与消费者重新建立信任。”<i>巴伦周刊</i>.“因此，我们很高兴地说，在2021年，我们显然看到了所有这些努力工作的美妙效果。”</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie并不是唯一一个进入新增长期的零售品牌。在过去的一年里，许多美国零售商不仅走出了深渊，还利用疫情带来的宏观经济变化，推动自己进入了意想不到的复兴。</blockquote></p><p> Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的市场和急于花掉疫情积蓄的消费者的推动下，成功将实体业务与数字战略相结合的品牌销售额飙升，股价上涨。许多大型购物中心零售商的股价飙升，包括梅西百货(M)、诺德斯特龙(JWN)、著名鞋类母公司Caleres(CAL)和Signet Jewelers(SIG)，这些公司在过去12个月内都上涨了至少100%。</blockquote></p><p> These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司现在准备从可能创纪录的假期中获益。根据全国零售联合会的数据，消费者可能会花费8510亿美元，比去年创纪录的7770亿美元增长9.5%，是过去五年4.4%平均增幅的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道这场派对是否会持续下去，或者这些商店是否只是在捕捉未来可能发生的销售。在零售销售正常化之前，企业需要应对一系列供应链和通胀压力，这些压力可能会抑制假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p><p><blockquote>但意外的复兴重申了许多品牌对实体店力量的信念。虽然他们仍在大力投资在线业务，但他们继续在实体未来上下大赌注。随着对实体店投资的继续，许多人曾经预期的实体零售商的消亡似乎不再那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>富裕家庭计划在这个假期平均花费2624美元，比去年增加15%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>疫情对零售商来说并不理想，但它提供了一些独特的机会。问题是显而易见的。人们害怕亲自购物。购物者——甚至是婴儿潮一代——以意想不到的数量涌向网上。亚马逊（AMZN）和沃尔玛（WMT）等零售巨头经历了有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> “The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p><p><blockquote>Columbia Threadneedle Investments零售分析师Mari Shor表示：“投资者情绪——尤其是短期对冲基金类型投资者——刚刚对该集团变得非常负面。”“我只是认为投资者并没有真正相信公司或消费者。”</blockquote></p><p> Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p><p><blockquote>肖尔表示，投资者的怀疑根源于这样一种观念，即传统零售商，无论是大流行前还是大流行后，都无法生存。</blockquote></p><p> But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情给了零售商一个难得的机会，让他们关闭表现不佳的门店，专注于优秀的门店。许多零售商还专注于在网上做得更好，并将销售策略转向消费者，无论他们何时何地想购物——无论是网上购物、移动购物还是店内购物。</blockquote></p><p> In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>萨克斯第五大道精品百货店(Saks Fifth Avenue)的母公司剥离了其电子商务部门，该部门目前预计将上市，目标估值为60亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，这种方法至关重要。据美国零售联合会估计，今年假期在线和其他非商店销售额预计将增长11%至15%，可能达到2260亿美元的高点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>Global X负责电子商务的研究分析师佩德罗·帕兰德拉尼(Pedro Palandrani)表示：“我们认为，这场大流行不仅加速了电子商务在全球的采用，还扩大了市场。”</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie在其数字战略上投资了数亿美元，强调通过改进公司网站以及为在线购买建立店内退货和提货等举措，从数字体验平稳过渡到店内体验。Horowitz表示，疫情的到来促使Abercrombie关闭了全球130家门店和该品牌50%的旗舰店，使过去10年关闭的门店总数达到约500家，同时战略性地开设了一些重要的新店。</blockquote></p><p> “Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p><p><blockquote>“商店很重要，但它们必须是合适的规模、合适的位置和合适的经济效益，”她说。“你把它和数字结合在一起，它就等于魔法。”</blockquote></p><p> Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p><p><blockquote>B.Riley Securities分析师苏珊·安德森(Susan Anderson)表示，实体店不仅是吸引亲自购物者的经济高效的方式，而且还可以作为在线提货和退货以及本地运输的重要配送中心。近年来，即使是Warby Parker(WRBY)等在线零售商也扩大了实体业务，以适应购物者的偏好。“消费者希望随时随地购物，”安德森说。</blockquote></p><p> That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种行为会以意想不到的方式演变。商场和实体店在精通数字技术的青少年和年轻人中越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，设计公司BHDP委托对1,000名购物者进行的一项调查显示，55%的14至17岁青少年表示他们现在在室内购物中心购物，90%的人计划明年去购物中心。接受调查的18至24岁购物者也回到商场，试穿产品，利用店内促销活动，并进行退货。德勤(Deloitte)美国零售和分销副主席罗德·赛德斯(Rod Sides)表示，这种转变导致零售商放弃了对特定人群的旧观点和假设。</blockquote></p><p> The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p><p><blockquote>疫情期间的战略转变使许多零售商在今年购物中心和市中心的重新开放中处于更好的位置——购物者渴望打开钱包。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，一些消费者变得出乎意料地富有。他们获得了刺激付款，从旅行费用下降中节省下来，并看到市场飙升。如今，所有收入水平的消费者储蓄都处于或接近创纪录水平。德勤(Deloitte)的一项年度研究发现，富裕家庭计划在这个假期的支出比去年增加15%，平均每户2,624美元，推动了假期的大部分增长。</blockquote></p><p> “You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示：“你有大量现金，而且有相当多被压抑的需求。”</blockquote></p><p> Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国人口普查局的数据，9月份零售和食品服务销售额估计增至6250亿美元，比10月份增长0.7%，同比增长13.9%。仅零售额就比8月份增长了0.8%。花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示：“我们预计9月份会出现一些回调，但我们没有。”</blockquote></p><p> Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p><p><blockquote>全国零售联合会主席兼首席执行官马修·谢伊(Matthew Shay)在10月份的媒体吹风会上表示，进入假期，零售商比十年前健康得多。万事达卡年度支出指数预测，本季美国零售额将增长7.4%，其中服装、百货商店、珠宝和奢侈品将大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p><p><blockquote>以格子呢面料和围巾闻名的奢侈品零售商博柏利集团(BRBY.UK)上周表示，2022财年上半年可比销售额增长37%，全价销售额正以两位数的速度增长。Coach母公司Tapestry(TPR)公布的第一财季财报好于预期，上调了2022年销售额和利润预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师看好零售业，考恩表示，“许多奢侈品牌已经成功地应对了价格上涨，并可能受益于美国和国际上历史上强劲的消费者资产负债表。”Wolfe Research青睐Nordstrom和Tapestry等公司，分析师在一份报告中写道，“美国消费者支出的几乎所有主要驱动因素都青睐高端产品。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，更多的美国人开始来到购物中心。Placer.ai购物中心——流量统计显示，与2019年相比，10月份室内购物中心的客流量增长了3%，室外购物中心的客流量增长了5%——这是购物中心商店库存飙升的原因之一。拥有这些购物中心的西蒙地产集团(SPG)的股价在2021年上涨了约90%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p><p><blockquote>泰森斯高级营销经理林赛·佩塔克(Lindsay Petak)表示：“随着越来越多的人完全接种疫苗，再加上许多人出于供应链担忧为即将到来的假期提前购物，自7月份以来，我们看到客流量稳步上升。”华盛顿地区的角落中心。该购物中心归Macerich(MAC)所有，该公司的股价今年也几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都加剧了遭受重创的零售商多年来的股价上涨。过去一年，SPDR S&amp;P零售交易所交易基金(XRT)上涨了85%，而标普500则上涨了33%。景顺标普500等权重非必需消费品ETF（RCD）今年的表现优于标普500 5个百分点，这表明投资者仍然看好零售销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p><p><blockquote>NRF的谢伊说：“我们看到百货商店、服装和非必需消费品零售商在经济重新开放后就真正反弹了。”“根据我们所做的消费者调查工作，百货商店始终是节日期间的热门目的地……它们继续位居今年人们购物场所的榜首。”</blockquote></p><p> All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，分析师和投资者仍然对实体店所扮演的角色充满信心，实体店可能看起来与在线商店不同，但它们将继续存在。</blockquote></p><p> The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，零售业复兴是否可持续还没有定论。零售商在远离正常的宏观经济环境中运营，这使得任何猜测都更具投机性。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师珍妮·斯蒂彻特(Janine Stichter)表示：“我认为我们还没有正常的洞察力，因为目前整个业务存在太多复杂性。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>企业正在努力应对持续的供应链担忧、通胀压力和持续的劳动力短缺，尽管所有迹象都表明假日季度表现强劲，但这些问题可能会影响盈利。“供应链问题是真实存在的，”霍洛维茨说。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie在第二季度收益看涨期权中表示，由于供应链限制，该公司预计销售将受到适度影响，而更大的影响来自运费通胀。</blockquote></p><p> To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团的克拉克表示，为了缓解供应链压力，零售商鼓励消费者尽早开始购物，这一趋势可能会扭曲年终销售数据。如果购物者提前购买礼物，与往年相比，11月和12月的礼物数量可能会有所下降。“这并不一定是支出疲软得多；只是几个月的分布不同，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p><p><blockquote>Stichter表示，另一方面，低库存将为零售商提供更高的定价权，有助于抵消供应链中断。波士顿学院经济学家萨沙·托米奇表示，虽然这对零售商有利，但可能会进一步推高价格。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行洛克伍德顾问公司首席投资官马修·福雷斯特表示，无论风险如何，强劲的业绩都不会永远持续下去。“总体而言，美国经济明显放缓，”他说。“明年我们将放缓。此外，随着我们恢复趋势增长，这正是可能发生的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，随着刺激措施的继续减少，经济最终将退出兴奋状态。他表示，虽然下降可能并不“可怕”，但消费者支出仍将较目前有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p><p><blockquote>不过，Abercrombie正在其实体店的帮助下克服逆风。该公司计划在商店放置更多库存，并将电子商务订单发送到商店，并与Uber、Shipt和Postmates合作提供当天送达服务。</blockquote></p><p> Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p><p><blockquote>其他零售商已经将供应链解决方案掌握在自己手中。特种服装公司American Eagle Outfitters(AEO)最近宣布将收购市中心附近自动化配送中心运营商Quiet Logistics，就在几周前，该公司收购了专注于中英里物流（将产品从仓库运送到零售店）的AirTerra。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>“我们将继续这样做，”霍洛维茨说。</blockquote></p><p> As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p><p><blockquote>随着零售商的前进，末日预言家可能不得不推迟预示零售业的末日。目前，人们的情绪很明显：消费者正在重新发现实体购物的乐趣。商场又变得凉爽了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛","RCD":"READY CAPITAL CORPORATION 9.00% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2029","AMZN":"亚马逊","ANF":"爱芬奇","BBRYF":"Burberry Group Plc","M":"梅西百货","BRBY.UK":"巴宝莉","TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","JWN":"诺德斯特龙","CAL":"Caleres鞋业","SIG":"西格内特珠宝"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159096163","content_text":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.\nThe retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.\nBut something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.\nRevenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.\n“Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with Barron’s. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”\nAbercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.\nBrands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including Macy’s (M),Nordstrom (JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres (CAL), and Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.\nThese companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.\nNo one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.\nBut the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.\nWealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.\nThe pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as Amazon.com (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.\n“The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”\nShor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.\nBut the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.\nIn one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.\nSuch approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.\n“We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.\nAbercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.\n“Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”\nNot only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.\nThat behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.\nAccording to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.\nThe shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.\nDuring the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.\n“You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.\nRetail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.\nRetailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly Mastercard spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.\nLuxury retailer Burberry Group (BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And Tapestry (TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.\nSome analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”\nMeanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.\n“With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.\nAll of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the SPDR S&P Retail exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&P 500 rose 33%. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.\n“We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”\nAll that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.\nThe verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.\n“I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.\nCompanies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.\nAbercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.\nTo ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.\nOn the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.\nWhatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”\nThe economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.\nAbercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.\nOther retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.\n“We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.\nAs retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9,"CAL":0.9,"BRBY.UK":0.9,"TPR":0.9,"SIG":0.9,"JWN":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"BBRYF":0.9,"RCD":0.9,"M":0.9,"ANF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873872783,"gmtCreate":1636933888801,"gmtModify":1636933888801,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873872783","repostId":"2183232043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436495,"gmtCreate":1636761851903,"gmtModify":1636761851985,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436495","repostId":"2182094779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873875641,"gmtCreate":1636933924328,"gmtModify":1636933924328,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873875641","repostId":"1135817623","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873974094,"gmtCreate":1636852709186,"gmtModify":1636852709186,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873974094","repostId":"1116750872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116750872","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1636761765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116750872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?<blockquote>Meta Platforms本周收盘强劲：期权交易者的目标是历史高点吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116750872","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Meta Platforms Inc is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off","content":"<p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b>&nbsp;is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>元平台公司</b>到目前为止，本周收盘强劲，上涨近3.5%，仅比周高点低7美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than&nbsp;672,970 options with 476,002&nbsp;being calls and 196,968&nbsp;being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>虽然股票交易量稳定在1700万股，而10天平均水平为2100万股，但期权交易者当天相当活跃，交易了超过672,970份期权，其中476,002份是评级期权，196,968份是看跌期权。这意味着每10个选项中就有7个是评级（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08237f8d7c163047e56072f027073d5\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>What It Matters:</b>Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000&nbsp;options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.</p><p><blockquote><b>重要的是：</b>本周五之前，共有1,519,000份评级和1,207,750份看跌期权，期权总数为2,726,000份。因此，本周五的期权活动和流量为672,970笔，占期权总流量的25%。</blockquote></p><p> Any time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>股票在一天内交易总期权的25%时，这意味着期权交易商对股票尤为活跃。</blockquote></p><p> Of note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970&nbsp;options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，只有11%的期权将于本周五到期（约300,000份期权），因此今天的672,970份期权表明了更多的前瞻性流动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's Next:</b>Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).</p><p><blockquote><b>下一步是什么：</b>看看下周11月19日到期的期权流，您可以看到看涨期权方面的大部分成交量和未平仓合约在330美元至360美元之间。在看跌方面，在340美元和300美元之间有一个持续但较小的成交量（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74f74fdf39ce74de7e0d6a88eb349c8\" tg-width=\"1743\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This suggests bullish traders are targeting&nbsp;between $330 and $360, but don't have&nbsp;much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.</p><p><blockquote>这表明看涨交易者的目标在330美元至360美元之间，但对此没有太大兴趣。与此同时，看跌期权交易者认为300美元以下不会有太大下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，从340美元到300美元的稳定看跌期权交易量似乎是看涨交易者出售现金担保看跌期权至322.5美元的组合，但多头股票交易者可能会寻求低于该水平的保护，因为溢价非常低。</blockquote></p><p> Hence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看涨交易者希望看到360美元的罢工在下周之前被清除，以提高他们的预期，而空头则希望看到每周收盘价低于300美元以打开下行空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?<blockquote>Meta Platforms本周收盘强劲：期权交易者的目标是历史高点吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeta Platforms Closes The Week Strong: Are Option Traders Targeting All-Time Highs?<blockquote>Meta Platforms本周收盘强劲：期权交易者的目标是历史高点吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-13 08:02</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Meta Platforms Inc</b>&nbsp;is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>元平台公司</b>到目前为止，本周收盘强劲，上涨近3.5%，仅比周高点低7美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>&nbsp;While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than&nbsp;672,970 options with 476,002&nbsp;being calls and 196,968&nbsp;being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>虽然股票交易量稳定在1700万股，而10天平均水平为2100万股，但期权交易者当天相当活跃，交易了超过672,970份期权，其中476,002份是评级期权，196,968份是看跌期权。这意味着每10个选项中就有7个是评级（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c08237f8d7c163047e56072f027073d5\" tg-width=\"1001\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>What It Matters:</b>Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000&nbsp;options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.</p><p><blockquote><b>重要的是：</b>本周五之前，共有1,519,000份评级和1,207,750份看跌期权，期权总数为2,726,000份。因此，本周五的期权活动和流量为672,970笔，占期权总流量的25%。</blockquote></p><p> Any time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>股票在一天内交易总期权的25%时，这意味着期权交易商对股票尤为活跃。</blockquote></p><p> Of note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970&nbsp;options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，只有11%的期权将于本周五到期（约300,000份期权），因此今天的672,970份期权表明了更多的前瞻性流动。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's Next:</b>Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).</p><p><blockquote><b>下一步是什么：</b>看看下周11月19日到期的期权流，您可以看到看涨期权方面的大部分成交量和未平仓合约在330美元至360美元之间。在看跌方面，在340美元和300美元之间有一个持续但较小的成交量（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74f74fdf39ce74de7e0d6a88eb349c8\" tg-width=\"1743\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This suggests bullish traders are targeting&nbsp;between $330 and $360, but don't have&nbsp;much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.</p><p><blockquote>这表明看涨交易者的目标在330美元至360美元之间，但对此没有太大兴趣。与此同时，看跌期权交易者认为300美元以下不会有太大下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，从340美元到300美元的稳定看跌期权交易量似乎是看涨交易者出售现金担保看跌期权至322.5美元的组合，但多头股票交易者可能会寻求低于该水平的保护，因为溢价非常低。</blockquote></p><p> Hence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看涨交易者希望看到360美元的罢工在下周之前被清除，以提高他们的预期，而空头则希望看到每周收盘价低于300美元以打开下行空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116750872","content_text":"Meta Platforms Inc is having a strong close thus far to end the week, up almost 3.5% and only $7 off the weekly highs.\nWhat Happened: While the volume of shares traded is solid at 17 million vs. the 10 day average of 21 million, options traders are quite active on the day, trading more than 672,970 options with 476,002 being calls and 196,968 being puts. This comes out to about 7 out of every 10 options being calls (image below).\n\nWhat It Matters:Prior to this Friday, there were 1,519,000 calls and 1,207,750 puts for a total of 2,726,000 options. Hence this Friday's options activity and flows of 672,970 comprise 25% of the total option flows out there.\nAny time a stock trades 25% of its total options in one day, it means options traders are particularly active in the stock.\nOf note, only 11% of the options were set to expire this Friday (~300,000 options) so today's 672,970 options suggest a lot more forward-looking flows.\nWhat's Next:Looking at the option flows expiring next week on Nov. 19, you can see on the call side the majority of volume and open interest is between the $330 and $360 strikes. And on the put side, there is a consistent but small volume between the $340 and $300 strikes (image below).\n\nThis suggests bullish traders are targeting between $330 and $360, but don't have much appetite above that. Meanwhile, bearish options traders don't see much downside below $300.\nIt should be noted the steady volume of puts from $340 to $300 appears to be a mix of bullish traders selling cash-secured puts down to the $322.5 strike, but likely long stock traders seeking protection below that as the premium is very low.\nHence bullish traders will want to see the $360 strike cleared by next week to lift their expectations higher while bears will want to see a weekly close below $300 to open up the downside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873975687,"gmtCreate":1636852670771,"gmtModify":1636852670771,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873975687","repostId":"1129004768","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129004768","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636764434,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129004768?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊市论点及其错误的原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129004768","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许苹果公司并不是同样值得买入的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只今天值得在未来几年持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果(AAPL)再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，出售（或做空）这只股票的理由并不成立，而且我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌情况要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。像New Street的Pierre Ferragu和Satori Fund的Dan Niles这样的专家是我想到的少数几个，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌AAPL的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常以不同的方式表述，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在2020年疫情最严重的时候转化为收入和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13发布之后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为iPhone 13只是对上一款机型的小幅升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和节后季度开始面临无法克服的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表还显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度中，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。销售额从2019-2020财年转移到2021财年的一个可能原因是苹果进入5G领域较晚。忠于或只是喜欢iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一下子就完成了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这也可能有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去6至12个月内飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一款能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自2015年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020财年第四季度同比下降了29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，每个季度的收入都至少增长了57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最终，在过去的12个季度（大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命）中，苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能有所上涨，这一数字几乎不能代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为接下来对苹果产品的需求会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，特别是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果经常被提及的另一个主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯(Dan Niles)表示，明年26倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与温和的增长预期相比，这个市盈率看起来太高了。分析师预计，到2025财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长4%。Alphabet(GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期盈利每年将增长16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（市盈率超过长期每股收益增长）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊(AMZN)在这一指标上远远落后于第二名，为2.3倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个支持苹果的好理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的看门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象表明，苹果今年夏天iOS隐私政策的变化一直在损害社交媒体公司，它们的财务报表导致纳斯达克在几分钟内市值飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们应该为股票支付溢价吗？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，苹果的远期市盈率相对于几年前肯定有所扩大。但多年来的上涨似乎与(1)对苹果产品和服务的需求增加浪潮、(2)利润率提高、(3)2020年利率下降以及(4)广泛的股市一致市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前AAPL的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了大约三圈，并回到了2021年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>经常提到的投资苹果的下一个风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13在几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备的更新阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与一只股票在11月至1月期间季节性表现往往较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能辩称，由于未来几个季度的业绩艰难，投资者可能很难在未来几个月内找到购买苹果公司的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但在这里，我认为需要一点耐心。首先，仅最近股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前已经更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太大好处是否已纳入分析师的财务模型，因此也无法正确定价到股票中。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队运营的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（与上述风险#1相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总之</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不像我在2021年2月或更好的2018年4月那样是一个巨大的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票毫无理由地遭到抛售。但我仍然认为，苹果公司是一只值得在未来几年持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始重估至去年同期的水平。如果苹果短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有发生有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊市论点及其错误的原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊市论点及其错误的原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许苹果公司并不是同样值得买入的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只今天值得在未来几年持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果(AAPL)再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，出售（或做空）这只股票的理由并不成立，而且我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌情况要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。像New Street的Pierre Ferragu和Satori Fund的Dan Niles这样的专家是我想到的少数几个，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌AAPL的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常以不同的方式表述，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在2020年疫情最严重的时候转化为收入和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13发布之后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为iPhone 13只是对上一款机型的小幅升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和节后季度开始面临无法克服的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表还显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度中，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。销售额从2019-2020财年转移到2021财年的一个可能原因是苹果进入5G领域较晚。忠于或只是喜欢iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一下子就完成了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这也可能有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去6至12个月内飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一款能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自2015年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020财年第四季度同比下降了29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，每个季度的收入都至少增长了57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最终，在过去的12个季度（大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命）中，苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能有所上涨，这一数字几乎不能代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为接下来对苹果产品的需求会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，特别是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果经常被提及的另一个主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯(Dan Niles)表示，明年26倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与温和的增长预期相比，这个市盈率看起来太高了。分析师预计，到2025财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长4%。Alphabet(GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期盈利每年将增长16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（市盈率超过长期每股收益增长）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊(AMZN)在这一指标上远远落后于第二名，为2.3倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个支持苹果的好理由。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的看门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象表明，苹果今年夏天iOS隐私政策的变化一直在损害社交媒体公司，它们的财务报表导致纳斯达克在几分钟内市值飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们应该为股票支付溢价吗？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，苹果的远期市盈率相对于几年前肯定有所扩大。但多年来的上涨似乎与(1)对苹果产品和服务的需求增加浪潮、(2)利润率提高、(3)2020年利率下降以及(4)广泛的股市一致市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前AAPL的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了大约三圈，并回到了2021年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>经常提到的投资苹果的下一个风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13在几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备的更新阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与一只股票在11月至1月期间季节性表现往往较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能辩称，由于未来几个季度的业绩艰难，投资者可能很难在未来几个月内找到购买苹果公司的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但在这里，我认为需要一点耐心。首先，仅最近股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前已经更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太大好处是否已纳入分析师的财务模型，因此也无法正确定价到股票中。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队运营的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（与上述风险#1相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总之</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不像我在2021年2月或更好的2018年4月那样是一个巨大的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票毫无理由地遭到抛售。但我仍然认为，苹果公司是一只值得在未来几年持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始重估至去年同期的水平。如果苹果短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有发生有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129004768","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.\nI list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nMaybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.\n\nkmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.\nBelow, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nKey risk #1: drop-off in demand\nNot many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's Pierre Ferragu and Satori Fund's Dan Niles are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.\nThe first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.\nI see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\nThis may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.\nIn the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.\nKey risk #2: valuation\nThe other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.\nThat, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.\nFirst, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer have been hurting social media companies and their financial statements led to the Nasdaqe rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.\nData by YCharts\nAlso, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.\nKey risk #3: lack of positive catalysts\nThe next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and so has the refreshed lineup of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.\nBut here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.\nI have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and autonomous vehicle has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.\nIn summary\nApple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be in February 2021 or, better yet,in April 2018 – in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436852,"gmtCreate":1636761814810,"gmtModify":1636761814810,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436852","repostId":"2182153840","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436325,"gmtCreate":1636761787365,"gmtModify":1636761787365,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like&nbsp;","listText":"Please like&nbsp;","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436325","repostId":"1193642637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879432955,"gmtCreate":1636761882097,"gmtModify":1636761882097,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879432955","repostId":"2182100092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879436269,"gmtCreate":1636761832835,"gmtModify":1636761832835,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879436269","repostId":"2182236092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690860894,"gmtCreate":1639655279022,"gmtModify":1639655279120,"author":{"id":"4099624987861330","authorId":"4099624987861330","name":"Alic3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6ffffa1b83d85587ad509fee1fc053","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099624987861330","authorIdStr":"4099624987861330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wwwww","listText":"Wwwww","text":"Wwwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690860894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}