Small-caps (NYSEARCA:IWM) and value stocks (NYSEARCA:IWN) are in a correction in the last four weeks, while high-beta stocks are entering a beark market, J.P. Morgan's chief global market strategist says.
Marko Kolanovic, who has gained attention for recent calls to buy the dip, calls attention to a "paradox" with U.S. stocks, on average, down 28% from highs, with the median stock down about 21%, while the Russell 3000 (NYSEARCA:IWV) up about 22% year to date and the S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY) up 25%.
"Such a divergence is unknown to us, and indicates a historically unprecedented overshoot in selling smaller, more volatile, typically value and cyclical stocks in the last 4 weeks," Kolanovic writes in a note.
"For short-selling campaigns to succeed, there have to be positioning, liquidity and often systematic amplifiers of the selloff," he says. "We believe these conditions are not met, and hence this market episode may end up in a short squeeze and cyclical rally into year-end and January."
Retail resilience. There will be buying of equities into month- and quarter-end, he adds.
"Yet, there is aggressive shorting, likely in a hope of declines in retail equity position and cryptocurrency holdings - while in fact both of these markets and retail investors have shown resilience in the past weeks."
"One should note that large short positions likely need to be closed before (the seasonally strong) January, which is likely to see a small-cap, value and cyclical rally," Kolanovic says. "And given that market liquidity is dwindling, the impact of closing shorts may be bigger than the impact of opening them, when liquidity conditions were better."
On the bearish side, SocGen's Albert Edwards is looking for U.S. tech to unravel next year.
