Earnings are beating estimates, stocks are soaring, and analysts are quickly raising numbers.
The aggregate earnings per share result on the S&P 500 had beaten estimates by 11.7% coming into Thursday, according to Credit Suisse. Almost three quarters of companies reporting so far have posted better-then-expected numbers.
The surprisingly robust profits underscore that analysts still are getting a handle on the economy as it continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. A year ago, many companies were being ravaged by lockdowns.
Now many are seeing surging revenue and net income. Sales and EPS on the S&P 500 this quarter are currently expected to rise about 14% and 26% year-over-year, respectively.
Earnings this quarter weren’t supposed to be this good. The market was expecting lesser earnings beats, just 4% above estimates as recently as Tuesday. After all, analysts have already revised earnings estimates up significantly this year, as companies were beating by more than 15% earlier in the year. Plus, supply chain constraints and labor shortages are bringing costs higher for companies.
To be sure, a big reason earnings are outperforming are the financials, which had beaten estimates by 22% into Thursday.Banks have posted impressive results all week. Still, even excluding financials, S&P 500 companies were beating profit forecasts by about 5% as of Thursday morning.
Share prices are being lifted by the earnings beats.Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) were all up between 0.7% and 4.5% after earnings, as these banks freed up billions of dollars each that had previously been reserved to absorb potential loan losses. Elsewhere, Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) beat profit expectations, with their stocks rising 0.6% and 7.4%, respectively.Fastenal (FAST) beat estimates and saw its stock rise 3% after earnings. Key to its story: Analysts said the company raised prices enough to offset higher transportation and product costs.
It isn’t just companies reporting earnings that investors are rewarding — the broader market is slipping into relief-rally mode. The S&P 500 rose 1.7%. While less than a tenth of companies on the index will have reported by the end of this week, more than 90% of its stocks were rallying Thursday, according to FactSet. Investors seem to be anticipating that earnings will be stronger for companies that haven’t reported yet.
Going forward, investors will still have to keep a close eye on profit margins. Supply and labor limitations are still a concern — and not every company is like Fastenal. “The focus remains on margin sustainability in this era of rapidly-rising costs,” writes Christopher Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo.
The point is that earnings look fine — so far.