General Motors reports third-quarter results Wednesday morning. Investors, frankly, don’t know what to expect. That could lead to more wild trading in GM stock.
Since GM (ticker: GM) last reported earnings in early August, the stock has been essentially flat. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up about 3% and 2%, respectively, over the same span.
Still, the stock has taken shareholders on a volatile ride to get to even. Shares dropped almost 9% the day of the second-quarter earnings report. GM stock has fallen from about $58 a share just before second-quarter earnings to about $47 a share before bounding back and trading north of $59 early in October. Shares were roughly flat, at $57.73, in recent trading. The S&P 500 was up 0.7%.
Second-quarter operating profits beat expectations, but guidance for second-half 2021 earnings sunk the shares, disappointing investors. Two things dragged guidance down. First, the global semiconductor shortage constraining car production wasn’t abating. Next, recall costs for faulty batteries in Chevy Bolt EVs were rising.
GM stock got a boost in October when battery supplier LG Chem (051910.Korea) agreed to reimburse GM about $2 billion for recall costs.
The auto maker’s stock got another boost that same month when management hosted an investor day, focusing on its long-term vehicle electrification and autonomous-driving goals. GM wants to double sales by 2030 off a base of $140 billion. That goal will be discussed on Wednesday, but near-term results won’t impact that goal.
The semiconductor shortage persists. Investors have to balance the continuing shortage against high vehicle prices. Light-vehicle sales in the U.S. dropped about 13% in the third quarter. But auto dealers such as AutoNation (AN) and Lithia Motors (LAD) are blowing away Street earnings estimates because of high per-car profitability.
Wall Street is looking for about $1 in per-share earnings from $26.4 billion in sales. GM reported $1.97 in adjusted per-share earnings from $34.2 billion in sales.
This time around, options markets are implying about a 5% move, up or down, following GM’s earnings report.
“Results—sales, margins, working cap, [free cash flow]—will unlikely be pretty,” wrote RBC analyst Joseph Spak in an industry earnings preview report back in late September. He is still positive on auto-maker stocks, as auto sales should pick up in 2022 after the semiconductor shortage abates. He rates GM shares Buy and has a $74 price target for the stock.
GM management will host a conference call at 10 a.m. Eastern time after it releases numbers.