When the facts change as with SQ stock, you should revise your thesis
Those who stuck with Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock two years ago received a big payout. I was a skeptic for a long time but that didn’t stop me from trading it bullishly. I could not see how it fit in the migration from traditional to streaming models.
Regardless as to how, management proved me wrong. The fundamental metrics now are undeniable bullish.
In the last four years, they quadrupled revenues. They now have more than $100 million of positive net income after years of losses. That point is important because the company is not young and ran red too long.
But finally the media delivery environment swung their way. Last year, the swarm demand for streaming from the pandemic made for a perfect storm.
From here, hopefully they can build on the momentum and follow the digitization trend deep. This is a big world so the potential is borderless to a degree. I still don’t quite get why I would need a Roku, so I am not their target audience. In our household we “cut the cord” a while back. But we use our phones and tablets to consume our media without Roku.
ROKU Stock Is in Better Shape Now
Recognizing the improvements is important because the long-term thesis changed for me. This is a streaming stock with no weak asterisks anymore.
Being profitable does not mean that ROKU stock is now cheap. Experts could point to price-to-earnings ratio to call it expensive. They’d be wrong because for an aggressively growing company P/E is a bad metric. Companies cannot deliver impressive growth on a budget.
The better gauge to use is the price-to-sales, and at 22 it is reasonable. This is in line with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and cheaper than Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) to use two other growers. ROKU P/S is triple Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and quadruple that of Disney (NYSE:DIS). Nevertheless it is not a flagrant reason to sell it. The amount of hope that its investors have in it now is high. But it is not in the clouds so high to drive a crash.
ROKU stock rallied 740% from the pandemic crash. Then it corrected 44% and now is somewhere in the middle. The altitude is a bit alarming still 90% above last summer’s breakout. This concern is more serious since the markets are also near all-time highs.
Last week Federal Reserve “taper” fears resurfaced and could be a drag on the all equities. Regardless of how good this story is, it will need the markets to remain strong.
There Is Risk Below
If the overall malaise continues, ROKU could fall 30% from here and not change a thing. First, there would be a strong effort to hold the $280 zone. If that fails it would then trigger the rest of the dip. There is a way to profit from this potential now using options. This is also a way to get bullish the stock but leave room for error.
An investor can sell the January 2022 ROKU $220 put to be bullish the stock. This trade would not even need a rally to win. In fact, the stock can fall almost 40% and they can still break even. If the stock falls below $220 then they could own the shares there.
Big moves in stocks usually come from dislocations between reality and expectations. I don’t think there is such a scenario here. It’s a momentum stock but not teetering on disaster. I would not go as far as calling it a bargain but value became less of a threat.
Earlier I admitted that I was ignorant on one front but did not commit the mistake of shorting it. Back then I knew that my bearish bias was a mere opinion with low conviction. In fact I wrote about upside opportunities when I saw some coming.