New weekly jobless claims likely edged higher last week after plunging to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic.
The Department of Labor will release its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:
Initial jobless claims, week ended April 17: 610,000 expected vs. 576,000 during the prior week
Continuing claims, week ended April 3: 3.640 million expected vs. 3.731 million during the prior week
Last week's new claims came as a welcome surprise after more than a year of elevated initial filings. At 576,000, new claims broke below the Great Recession-era high of 665,000 filed in March 2009 for the first time in more than a year. And claims have dropped precipitously from their all-time high of 6.1 million from last spring.
But the labor market recovery has still been choppy, and the general downtrend in new jobless claims over the past several months has come with some bumps higher. Other reports have also underscored the stop-and-start nature of the rebound, with the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book last week noting that many regions continued to experience labor shortages as well as hiring challenges over the past several weeks.
And even within the jobless claims report, some metrics have remained stubbornly elevated and pointed to persistently high levels of unemployment. Nearly 17 million Americans were still receiving unemployment benefits across all programs as of late March, including more than 12 million Americans on the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which each expire in September. And some individual states, including Nevada and Alaska, continue to post insured unemployment rates that are well above the national average.
"The issue for the labor market, in our view, is at least partly related to ongoing health risks," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said in a note. "Even as states are lifting restrictions and the pace of vaccinations is picking up, workers are still likely hesitant to return to work, especially in contact-intensive industries."
"Overall, the labor market will see a significant rebound going forward," she added. "However, there are a lot of moving parts that will play a role in how sustainable and complete the recovery will be."
This post will be updated with the results of Thursday's initial unemployment claims report from the Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. Check back for updates.