个人中心 - 老虎社区

他哥_8297

IP属地：海外

帖子 · 6帖子 · 6
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- 他哥_8297他哥_8297
  ·2024-10-18
  屁话道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多
  特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！
  分析师指出，在大选年，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。
  特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！
  1,451 评论
  1
  分享
  举报
- 他哥_8297他哥_8297
  ·2023-01-30
  中国哪家公司能降价？
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,827 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- 他哥_8297他哥_8297
  ·2023-01-14
  特斯拉牛逼其他车厂**了其他车厂**了估值低所以特斯拉估值也应该低逻辑一百分
  Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?
  SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price c
  Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?
  2,075 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- 他哥_8297他哥_8297
  ·2023-01-11
  因为特斯拉开放超充了所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了逻辑一百分
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,482 1
  4
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3519426235804087","uuid":"3519426235804087","gmtCreate":1556333505650,"gmtModify":1588858365759,"name":"他哥_8297","pinyin":"tg8297tage8297","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":35,"tweetSize":6,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.10.18","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"海外","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":361235944796552,"gmtCreate":1729232388369,"gmtModify":1729233708775,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519426235804087","authorIdStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","listText":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","text":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361235944796552","repostId":"2476416677","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2476416677","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1729219326,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2476416677?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-18 10:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2476416677","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析师指出，在大选年，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。","content":"<html><body><p>MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，<strong>这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。</strong></p>\n<p>Hulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。</p>\n<p>就在<strong>两个月前，道指对</strong><strong>哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。</strong>而在<strong>五月份</strong>Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，<strong>民主党获胜的概率被认为只有</strong><strong>58%。</strong>自那时以来概率的增加是由于股市的强势。</p>\n<p>民主党获胜的72%概率远高于目前电子期货市场Election Betting Odds给出的43%。</p>\n<p>那么哪个指标更值得关注？Hulbert认为并没有明确的答案。</p>\n<p><strong>电子期货市场是一个相对较新的现象，因此其历史记录很难在统计上具有显著性。</strong>但是道指的情况并非如此，因为我们有自19世纪末以来30多次总统选举的数据。Hulbert计算得出，截至10月中旬的道指年度回报率与现任党派胜选机会之间的相关性在97%的置信水平上是显著的。</p>\n<p>进入总统大选年时，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。以下几点值得留意：</p>\n<p>若道指截至选举年的10月15日时<strong>涨幅超过10%</strong>，在任党派赢得选举的次数占总数的78%——就像今年一样，今年年初至10月15日，道指上涨了13.4%。</p>\n<p>此外，统计结果显示，当道指<strong>涨幅为正但低于10%时</strong>，在任党派赢得了60%的选票；当<strong>年中</strong><strong>道指回报率为负时</strong>，在任党派的胜选概率下降至42%。</p>\n<p>相信股市是一个好的大选预测指标的理论基础在于，它是经济未来表现的一个敏感领先指标。<strong>人们倾向于用自己的钱包来投票。</strong></p>\n<p>有人可能会认为今年将是个例外，因为尽管美国股市表现强劲，但消费者信心一直疲软。但是，当Hulbert对消费者信心和股市进行了一次“一对一”的统计测试时，<strong>后者在预测总统选举结果方面更胜一筹。</strong></p>\n<p>Hulbert认为，道指对谁将赢得总统大选的预测值得认真对待。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-18 10:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。\nHulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。\n就在两个月前，道指对哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。而在五月份Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，民主党获胜...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.jin10.com/news/24/07/-U77z3gWSESsWgVajJDTa.png/lite","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2476416677","content_text":"MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。\nHulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。\n就在两个月前，道指对哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。而在五月份Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，民主党获胜的概率被认为只有58%。自那时以来概率的增加是由于股市的强势。\n民主党获胜的72%概率远高于目前电子期货市场Election Betting Odds给出的43%。\n那么哪个指标更值得关注？Hulbert认为并没有明确的答案。\n电子期货市场是一个相对较新的现象，因此其历史记录很难在统计上具有显著性。但是道指的情况并非如此，因为我们有自19世纪末以来30多次总统选举的数据。Hulbert计算得出，截至10月中旬的道指年度回报率与现任党派胜选机会之间的相关性在97%的置信水平上是显著的。\n进入总统大选年时，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。以下几点值得留意：\n若道指截至选举年的10月15日时涨幅超过10%，在任党派赢得选举的次数占总数的78%——就像今年一样，今年年初至10月15日，道指上涨了13.4%。\n此外，统计结果显示，当道指涨幅为正但低于10%时，在任党派赢得了60%的选票；当年中道指回报率为负时，在任党派的胜选概率下降至42%。\n相信股市是一个好的大选预测指标的理论基础在于，它是经济未来表现的一个敏感领先指标。人们倾向于用自己的钱包来投票。\n有人可能会认为今年将是个例外，因为尽管美国股市表现强劲，但消费者信心一直疲软。但是，当Hulbert对消费者信心和股市进行了一次“一对一”的统计测试时，后者在预测总统选举结果方面更胜一筹。\nHulbert认为，道指对谁将赢得总统大选的预测值得认真对待。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622034442,"gmtCreate":1675010390887,"gmtModify":1675042807258,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519426235804087","authorIdStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国哪家公司能降价？","listText":"中国哪家公司能降价？","text":"中国哪家公司能降价？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622034442","repostId":"2307216919","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626928131,"gmtCreate":1673663017823,"gmtModify":1673663321931,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519426235804087","authorIdStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","listText":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","text":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626928131","repostId":"1152054962","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152054962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673667194,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152054962?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-14 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152054962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price c","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.</li><li>The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.</li><li>Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these valuations.</li></ul><p><b>Everything’s Gotta Go</b></p><p>Yesterday, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a surprise announcement that it would be slashing the price of four of its vehicle models. The news comes on the heels of flagging domestic demand for its vehicles, and stronger competition from traditional automakers.</p><p>The cuts amounted to an average of about 20%, with most of the reductions seemingly aimed at allowing buyers to qualify for the government’s $7,500 tax credit for vehicles under $55,000. Prices on the Model Y Long Range dropped to $52,990 from $65,990, bringing it just under the threshold.</p><p>The news is certain to make nobody happy—except Tesla bears. Slashing prices will infuriate recent customers who paid the higher price and investors who will now fear that margin compression and overall demand destruction was worse than previously thought. (Not to mention the numerous corporate fleet car customers who famously purchased Tesla electric vehicles (&#34;EVs&#34;) for their corporate stables at zero discount.)</p><p>It&#39;s not surprising that, as consumer demand slows, a company whose factories the CEO called “gigantic money furnaces” is suddenly in a serious pinch. The news is especially unsurprisingly given Tesla’s recent announcement that it would slash the prices of its vehicles in China as well. As of last week, a Model 3 was 30% cheaper to purchase in China than it was in the U.S. With today’s news, the gap has closed a bit.</p><p><b>The China Story</b></p><p>China has long been the source of bull fuel for investors—the Shanghai factory and access to an seemingly endless supply of Chinese consumers hungry for Tesla products was thought to be the most promising frontier for the company. Tesla and its investors have found out, however, like so many other American companies who have attempted to do business in China, that this is fraught with hazard. From government regulated shutdowns, to government-backed EV makers hell-bent on, well, “adopting” foreign intellectual property, Tesla certainly has its work cut out for it.</p><p>One interesting part of the Tesla bull narrative is that the company will—seemingly unimpeded—take the Chinese consumer market by storm. This view is, in our view, quite naïve. The Chinese have shown themselves time and time again to be relentless technology copycats, and while traditional car manufacturers in the West were certainly caught flatfooted by Tesla’s early success and have been relatively slow to respond, Chinese car makers have been anything but. In fact, in many cases Chinese car makers are even faster at iterating new models than Tesla. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s overall market share in the Chinese EV market slumped from 13% in 2021 to 8% in the first nine months of 2022. Chinese EV maker BYD Company Limited’s (OTCPK: BYDDF) Seal, for example, might not be as advanced as a Tesla Model 3—but it sells for $8,000 less.</p><p><b>The Margins. Always the Margins.</b></p><p>Many have made the case, including us, that Tesla’s margins were simply unsustainable. Tesla bulls made much of the fact that the expanding margins were here to stay—that Tesla had cracked the code, and that it would leave traditional auto makers in the dust (a curious thing to claim, especially when Tesla has almost always had a government-sponsored tailwind of one kind or another).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c914efc493b0dbd6b7ae597b905d0806\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla EBITDA Margin vs F &amp; GM(Koyfin)</p><p>We believed, however, that one way or another, margin compression would come and that the market would find a way to restore order. This price reduction will likely do just that.</p><p>The cost cuts also come at a difficult time in the competitive landscape. In 2022, almost 6% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. were electric, up from 3% a year before. Of that, Tesla accounted for 65% of those sales, which bulls are sure to rejoice. They might not rejoice, however, to learn that in 2021 Tesla captured 72% of all sales.</p><p>Traditional car makers are also catching up. Ford Motor Company (F) has executed its EV plan to near perfection, and General Motors (GM), despite some early stumbles with the Chevy Bolt, has gained much ground. Add in the fact that brand loyalty among consumers is quite low when it comes to EVs, and you’ve got a recipe for tough times.</p><p><b>What To Do?</b></p><p>Tesla will, we are certain, survive this storm. We are not so sure about its lofty stock price. One of the most obvious things Tesla’s board could do in this situation is to initiate the stock buyback that was floated in mid-2022 as an option when the stock was falling.</p><p>Interestingly, they haven’t yet done so.</p><p>This could be because the board and company leadership do not believe the stock’s decline is complete, especially with the backdrop of the current competitive landscape. It may also mean that they don’t believe the stock is cheap enough yet, and thus not a good use of capital deployment. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the company announces a new buyback plan in the near future.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>The price cuts in the U.S. come on the heels of price reductions abroad, and they bode ill in the near term for Tesla Inc.’s margins. Combined with the fact that its market share is shrinking in China and not growing as quickly domestically—perhaps even stalling—in the United States, and the fact that traditional manufacturers are catching up, and things are looking grim for Tesla, Inc. in the near term. We believe TSLA stock has further to fall, and investors should be wary of entering at this price point.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-14 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152054962","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these valuations.Everything’s Gotta GoYesterday, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a surprise announcement that it would be slashing the price of four of its vehicle models. The news comes on the heels of flagging domestic demand for its vehicles, and stronger competition from traditional automakers.The cuts amounted to an average of about 20%, with most of the reductions seemingly aimed at allowing buyers to qualify for the government’s $7,500 tax credit for vehicles under $55,000. Prices on the Model Y Long Range dropped to $52,990 from $65,990, bringing it just under the threshold.The news is certain to make nobody happy—except Tesla bears. Slashing prices will infuriate recent customers who paid the higher price and investors who will now fear that margin compression and overall demand destruction was worse than previously thought. (Not to mention the numerous corporate fleet car customers who famously purchased Tesla electric vehicles (\"EVs\") for their corporate stables at zero discount.)It's not surprising that, as consumer demand slows, a company whose factories the CEO called “gigantic money furnaces” is suddenly in a serious pinch. The news is especially unsurprisingly given Tesla’s recent announcement that it would slash the prices of its vehicles in China as well. As of last week, a Model 3 was 30% cheaper to purchase in China than it was in the U.S. With today’s news, the gap has closed a bit.The China StoryChina has long been the source of bull fuel for investors—the Shanghai factory and access to an seemingly endless supply of Chinese consumers hungry for Tesla products was thought to be the most promising frontier for the company. Tesla and its investors have found out, however, like so many other American companies who have attempted to do business in China, that this is fraught with hazard. From government regulated shutdowns, to government-backed EV makers hell-bent on, well, “adopting” foreign intellectual property, Tesla certainly has its work cut out for it.One interesting part of the Tesla bull narrative is that the company will—seemingly unimpeded—take the Chinese consumer market by storm. This view is, in our view, quite naïve. The Chinese have shown themselves time and time again to be relentless technology copycats, and while traditional car manufacturers in the West were certainly caught flatfooted by Tesla’s early success and have been relatively slow to respond, Chinese car makers have been anything but. In fact, in many cases Chinese car makers are even faster at iterating new models than Tesla. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s overall market share in the Chinese EV market slumped from 13% in 2021 to 8% in the first nine months of 2022. Chinese EV maker BYD Company Limited’s (OTCPK: BYDDF) Seal, for example, might not be as advanced as a Tesla Model 3—but it sells for $8,000 less.The Margins. Always the Margins.Many have made the case, including us, that Tesla’s margins were simply unsustainable. Tesla bulls made much of the fact that the expanding margins were here to stay—that Tesla had cracked the code, and that it would leave traditional auto makers in the dust (a curious thing to claim, especially when Tesla has almost always had a government-sponsored tailwind of one kind or another).Tesla EBITDA Margin vs F & GM(Koyfin)We believed, however, that one way or another, margin compression would come and that the market would find a way to restore order. This price reduction will likely do just that.The cost cuts also come at a difficult time in the competitive landscape. In 2022, almost 6% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. were electric, up from 3% a year before. Of that, Tesla accounted for 65% of those sales, which bulls are sure to rejoice. They might not rejoice, however, to learn that in 2021 Tesla captured 72% of all sales.Traditional car makers are also catching up. Ford Motor Company (F) has executed its EV plan to near perfection, and General Motors (GM), despite some early stumbles with the Chevy Bolt, has gained much ground. Add in the fact that brand loyalty among consumers is quite low when it comes to EVs, and you’ve got a recipe for tough times.What To Do?Tesla will, we are certain, survive this storm. We are not so sure about its lofty stock price. One of the most obvious things Tesla’s board could do in this situation is to initiate the stock buyback that was floated in mid-2022 as an option when the stock was falling.Interestingly, they haven’t yet done so.This could be because the board and company leadership do not believe the stock’s decline is complete, especially with the backdrop of the current competitive landscape. It may also mean that they don’t believe the stock is cheap enough yet, and thus not a good use of capital deployment. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the company announces a new buyback plan in the near future.The Bottom LineThe price cuts in the U.S. come on the heels of price reductions abroad, and they bode ill in the near term for Tesla Inc.’s margins. Combined with the fact that its market share is shrinking in China and not growing as quickly domestically—perhaps even stalling—in the United States, and the fact that traditional manufacturers are catching up, and things are looking grim for Tesla, Inc. in the near term. We believe TSLA stock has further to fall, and investors should be wary of entering at this price point.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628454075,"gmtCreate":1673432816497,"gmtModify":1673433362808,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519426235804087","authorIdStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","listText":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","text":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628454075","repostId":"2302042504","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}