个人中心 - 老虎社区

T20211215124

IP属地：江苏

帖子 · 33帖子 · 33
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2022-03-14
  $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$差不多了可以掉了
  1,106 评论
  2
  分享
  举报
- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2021-12-16
  $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 空头砖家们还不快出来预测点位
  1,224 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2021-12-11
  $Sea Ltd(SE)$垃圾
  1,573 评论
  9
  分享
  举报
- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2021-12-08
  $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$上不上下不下
  1,225 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2021-11-29
  $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$最后洗牌
  2,425 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2021-11-04
  $英伟达(NVDA)$不要不敢追看看上个礼拜的特斯拉觉得高不敢追的时候是追的时候控制不住想追的时候就别追了
  1,724 评论
  5
  分享
  举报
- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2021-11-04
  $英伟达(NVDA)$5日线行进一波大阳线结束这次上涨
  1,611 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2021-09-29
  $谷歌(GOOG)$破位了
  1,424 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2021-09-17
  Call杀完了该put了
  1,502 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- T20211215124T20211215124
  ·2021-08-30
  华尔街没看明白的东西这给看明白了？
  没有这么“鸽”！读懂鲍威尔在杰克逊会议上的“太极拳”
  实际上没有改变美联储货币政策正常化的态度和节奏。
  没有这么“鸽”！读懂鲍威尔在杰克逊会议上的“太极拳”
  1,019 评论
  5
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3555115339649366","uuid":"3555115339649366","gmtCreate":1592021316795,"gmtModify":1639534962603,"name":"T20211215124","pinyin":"t20211215124","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":3,"headSize":37,"tweetSize":33,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.37%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.86%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"江苏","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":634007675,"gmtCreate":1647267941644,"gmtModify":1647267941644,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>差不多了 可以掉了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>差不多了 可以掉了","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$差不多了 可以掉了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634007675","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690903742,"gmtCreate":1639618310580,"gmtModify":1639618310580,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 空头砖家们还不快出来预测点位&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 空头砖家们还不快出来预测点位&nbsp;","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 空头砖家们还不快出来预测点位","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690903742","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605656099,"gmtCreate":1639157554327,"gmtModify":1639158682485,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>垃圾","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>垃圾","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605656099","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602104375,"gmtCreate":1638978050388,"gmtModify":1638978050388,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>上不上 下不下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>上不上 下不下","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$上不上 下不下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602104375","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600733759,"gmtCreate":1638196900975,"gmtModify":1638196900975,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>最后洗牌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>最后洗牌","text":"$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$最后洗牌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600733759","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846911125,"gmtCreate":1636039059005,"gmtModify":1636039059005,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>不要不敢追 看看上个礼拜的特斯拉 觉得高不敢追的时候 是追的时候 控制不住想追的时候就别追了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>不要不敢追 看看上个礼拜的特斯拉 觉得高不敢追的时候 是追的时候 控制不住想追的时候就别追了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$不要不敢追 看看上个礼拜的特斯拉 觉得高不敢追的时候 是追的时候 控制不住想追的时候就别追了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846911125","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848948152,"gmtCreate":1635956940818,"gmtModify":1635956940818,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>5日线行进 一波大阳线结束这次上涨&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>5日线行进 一波大阳线结束这次上涨&nbsp;","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$5日线行进 一波大阳线结束这次上涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848948152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862140608,"gmtCreate":1632848649126,"gmtModify":1632848649126,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>破位了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>破位了","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$破位了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862140608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884281819,"gmtCreate":1631893769131,"gmtModify":1631893769131,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Call杀完了 该put了","listText":"Call杀完了 该put了","text":"Call杀完了 该put了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884281819","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":811589659,"gmtCreate":1630332099571,"gmtModify":1704958614332,"author":{"id":"3555115339649366","authorId":"3555115339649366","name":"T20211215124","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a6dcc706bde52ee61b739976b66882","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555115339649366","authorIdStr":"3555115339649366"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华尔街没看明白的东西这给看明白了？","listText":"华尔街没看明白的东西这给看明白了？","text":"华尔街没看明白的东西这给看明白了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811589659","repostId":"2163000999","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2163000999","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1630320299,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2163000999?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-30 18:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"没有这么“鸽”！读懂鲍威尔在杰克逊会议上的“太极拳”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2163000999","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"实际上没有改变美联储货币政策正常化的态度和节奏。","content":"<p>周五晚间，在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔的“鸽”派讲话打消市场提前宣告Taper甚至仓促加息的担忧，会后美股上涨，美元下探，美债利率走低。</p>\n<p>市场或许对鲍威尔的通胀暂时论印象更为深刻了，但我们认为这实际上没有改变美联储货币政策正常化的态度和节奏。</p>\n<p><b>关于经济：幅度最深VS持续最短的衰退</b></p>\n<p>在两个月的时间里，约3000万工人失去工作。去年二季度产出的降幅是2007年至2009年的大衰退期间全部降幅的两倍之多。<b><u>但随后经济复苏的速度超过了预期</u></b>，产出仅在四个季度后就超过了之前的峰值，还不到上一次大衰退后所需时间的一半。</p>\n<p>失业仍然不成比例地落在服务业部门的低工资工人身上。时至今日服务支出仍然比趋势水平低7%左右。当前总就业人数比疫情前低600万，其中500万是在低迷的服务部门所致。</p>\n<p><b><u>重点：经济和就业的重点矛盾，依然在服务业。</u></b></p>\n<h2><b> 关于就业：就业改观VS失业过高</b></h2>\n<p>最近几个月，劳动力市场的前景已经大为改观。过去三个月平均新增就业83.2万人，近80万人是服务业就业。职位空缺和辞职的水平处于历史高位。<b><u>失业率已经下降到5.4%，是疫情以来的低点，但仍然过高。劳动力参与率的恢复远远落后于其他部分。</u></b></p>\n<p><b><u>重点：劳动力市场复苏令人满意，但整体失业率和劳动参与率还未达标。</u></b></p>\n<h2><b> 关于通胀：远远高于VS临时性</b></h2>\n<p>截止至今年7月，滚动12个月的PCE以及核心PCE通胀率为4.2%和3.6%，<b><u>远远高于我们2%的长期通胀目标。企业和消费者普遍反映价格和工资有上升的压力。</u></b>高通胀的担忧会被其他因素所缓和，这些因素表明，持续高企的通胀<b><u>可能会被证明是临时性的</u></b>。</p>\n<p>对于通胀可能是临时性的，鲍威尔从五个方面提出了论证。</p>\n<p>1、缺乏广泛的通货膨胀压力：<b><u>通货膨胀的飙升主要来自几类相对狭窄的商品和服务。</u></b>其影响应该会随着时间的推移而消失。对于特定项目的价格上涨是否会外溢转化为广泛的通货膨胀。<b><u>我们会对通胀压力在经济中更广泛地蔓延的迹象感到担忧。</u></b></p>\n<p>2、高通胀项目有所缓和：二手车价格似乎已经稳定下来；汽车以外的耐用消费品的通货膨胀现在已经放缓，并可能开始下降。</p>\n<p>3、工资涨幅与长期通胀目标一致：工资增长的幅度持续地超过生产力增长和通胀水平，会导致“工资价格螺旋式通胀”。但目前工资上涨的速度与长期通胀目标一致。</p>\n<p>4、长期通胀预期处于2%的目标水平。长期通胀预期的变化远远小于实际通胀或短期的预期，表明高通胀可能被证明是临时性的。</p>\n<p>5、全球缓解通胀的力量。发达经济体长期低通货膨胀的模式可能反映了持续的缓解通货膨胀的力量，包括技术进步、全球化、人口因素，以及央行对维持价格稳定的有力而成功的保证。没有什么理由认为它们已经突然逆转或减弱。</p>\n<p><b><u>重点：对于通胀的看法大概是本次鲍威尔讲话最“鸽”的地方。</u></b>4月份鲍威尔曾表示，“我们不会允许通胀大幅超过2%，也不会允许通胀长时间超过2%。”可见当时通胀的幅度和时长都是美联储的观察点。而随着美国通胀水平的一再爆表，<b><u>一方面承认通胀远高于目标，一方面又继续强调通胀可能会被证明是临时性的，显示在矛盾的双目标制中货币政策做出的妥协。</u></b></p>\n<h2><b>关于对货币政策的影响：不为暂时的因素而收紧VS今年Taper可能是合适的</b></h2>\n<p>在最后对货币政策的影响中，鲍威尔指出妥协的原因，<b><u>是由于货币政策对通胀的主要影响可能会在滞后一年或更长时间出现，</u></b>如果应对暂时的因素而收紧政策，很可能在不适宜的时候反而延缓经济活动并增加通缩压力。</p>\n<p>除此外鲍威尔还提到两个变量：我们还期望看到持续强劲的就业增长。以及了解更多有关于Delta变种的影响。</p>\n<p>而对于货币政策的结论则是：就目前而言，货币政策已经起到好处；我们准备酌情调整政策以实现我们的目标。在通货膨胀方面，“实质性的进一步进展”的测试已经通过。在实现充分就业方面也取得了明显进展。<b><u>在FOMC最近的7月会议上，我和大多数与会者一样认为，如果经济的发展大致如预期，今年开始减少资产购买的步伐可能是合适的。</u></b></p>\n<p><b><u>在表达“今年Taper合适”之后还有两个观点的表述，我们认为不应过度解读为鸽派，</u></b>一个是“即使在资产购买结束后，我们所持有的长期证券将继续支持宽松的金融条件。”该话的意思是Taper后联储会维持资产负债表规模。但<b><u>从顺序上来说，缩表本身就应该是在加息进程开启后的才考虑的事。</u></b></p>\n<p>另外“未来减少资产购买的时间和速度将无关于传达加息时间节点的信号。”<b><u>这与7月的议息会议话锋一致，Taper和加息没有必然衔接关系，加息要满足的条件不同且更为严格。</u></b></p>\n<p><b><u>重点：通篇来看鲍威尔在通胀问题上的“鸽派”更倾向于其对于当前通胀远高于目标，但政策却迟于行动这种妥协的辩解。Taper在年内落地基本无疑。</u></b></p>\n<p>与此同时还有一点，10月左右Taper官宣和债务上调TGA账户由泄洪转回笼窗口叠加，虽然从当前来看流动性应当还是比较充分，但双政策对预期以及对市场的影响不可忽视。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>没有这么“鸽”！读懂鲍威尔在杰克逊会议上的“太极拳”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n没有这么“鸽”！读懂鲍威尔在杰克逊会议上的“太极拳”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-30 18:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639202><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五晚间，在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔的“鸽”派讲话打消市场提前宣告Taper甚至仓促加息的担忧，会后美股上涨，美元下探，美债利率走低。\n市场或许对鲍威尔的通胀暂时论印象更为深刻了，但我们认为这实际上没有改变美联储货币政策正常化的态度和节奏。\n关于经济：幅度最深VS持续最短的衰退\n在两个月的时间里，约3000万工人失去工作。去年二季度产出的降幅是2007年至2009年的大衰退期间全部降幅的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639202\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3639202","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2163000999","content_text":"周五晚间，在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔的“鸽”派讲话打消市场提前宣告Taper甚至仓促加息的担忧，会后美股上涨，美元下探，美债利率走低。\n市场或许对鲍威尔的通胀暂时论印象更为深刻了，但我们认为这实际上没有改变美联储货币政策正常化的态度和节奏。\n关于经济：幅度最深VS持续最短的衰退\n在两个月的时间里，约3000万工人失去工作。去年二季度产出的降幅是2007年至2009年的大衰退期间全部降幅的两倍之多。但随后经济复苏的速度超过了预期，产出仅在四个季度后就超过了之前的峰值，还不到上一次大衰退后所需时间的一半。\n失业仍然不成比例地落在服务业部门的低工资工人身上。时至今日服务支出仍然比趋势水平低7%左右。当前总就业人数比疫情前低600万，其中500万是在低迷的服务部门所致。\n重点：经济和就业的重点矛盾，依然在服务业。\n 关于就业：就业改观VS失业过高\n最近几个月，劳动力市场的前景已经大为改观。过去三个月平均新增就业83.2万人，近80万人是服务业就业。职位空缺和辞职的水平处于历史高位。失业率已经下降到5.4%，是疫情以来的低点，但仍然过高。劳动力参与率的恢复远远落后于其他部分。\n重点：劳动力市场复苏令人满意，但整体失业率和劳动参与率还未达标。\n 关于通胀：远远高于VS临时性\n截止至今年7月，滚动12个月的PCE以及核心PCE通胀率为4.2%和3.6%，远远高于我们2%的长期通胀目标。企业和消费者普遍反映价格和工资有上升的压力。高通胀的担忧会被其他因素所缓和，这些因素表明，持续高企的通胀可能会被证明是临时性的。\n对于通胀可能是临时性的，鲍威尔从五个方面提出了论证。\n1、缺乏广泛的通货膨胀压力：通货膨胀的飙升主要来自几类相对狭窄的商品和服务。其影响应该会随着时间的推移而消失。对于特定项目的价格上涨是否会外溢转化为广泛的通货膨胀。我们会对通胀压力在经济中更广泛地蔓延的迹象感到担忧。\n2、高通胀项目有所缓和：二手车价格似乎已经稳定下来；汽车以外的耐用消费品的通货膨胀现在已经放缓，并可能开始下降。\n3、工资涨幅与长期通胀目标一致：工资增长的幅度持续地超过生产力增长和通胀水平，会导致“工资价格螺旋式通胀”。但目前工资上涨的速度与长期通胀目标一致。\n4、长期通胀预期处于2%的目标水平。长期通胀预期的变化远远小于实际通胀或短期的预期，表明高通胀可能被证明是临时性的。\n5、全球缓解通胀的力量。发达经济体长期低通货膨胀的模式可能反映了持续的缓解通货膨胀的力量，包括技术进步、全球化、人口因素，以及央行对维持价格稳定的有力而成功的保证。没有什么理由认为它们已经突然逆转或减弱。\n重点：对于通胀的看法大概是本次鲍威尔讲话最“鸽”的地方。4月份鲍威尔曾表示，“我们不会允许通胀大幅超过2%，也不会允许通胀长时间超过2%。”可见当时通胀的幅度和时长都是美联储的观察点。而随着美国通胀水平的一再爆表，一方面承认通胀远高于目标，一方面又继续强调通胀可能会被证明是临时性的，显示在矛盾的双目标制中货币政策做出的妥协。\n关于对货币政策的影响：不为暂时的因素而收紧VS今年Taper可能是合适的\n在最后对货币政策的影响中，鲍威尔指出妥协的原因，是由于货币政策对通胀的主要影响可能会在滞后一年或更长时间出现，如果应对暂时的因素而收紧政策，很可能在不适宜的时候反而延缓经济活动并增加通缩压力。\n除此外鲍威尔还提到两个变量：我们还期望看到持续强劲的就业增长。以及了解更多有关于Delta变种的影响。\n而对于货币政策的结论则是：就目前而言，货币政策已经起到好处；我们准备酌情调整政策以实现我们的目标。在通货膨胀方面，“实质性的进一步进展”的测试已经通过。在实现充分就业方面也取得了明显进展。在FOMC最近的7月会议上，我和大多数与会者一样认为，如果经济的发展大致如预期，今年开始减少资产购买的步伐可能是合适的。\n在表达“今年Taper合适”之后还有两个观点的表述，我们认为不应过度解读为鸽派，一个是“即使在资产购买结束后，我们所持有的长期证券将继续支持宽松的金融条件。”该话的意思是Taper后联储会维持资产负债表规模。但从顺序上来说，缩表本身就应该是在加息进程开启后的才考虑的事。\n另外“未来减少资产购买的时间和速度将无关于传达加息时间节点的信号。”这与7月的议息会议话锋一致，Taper和加息没有必然衔接关系，加息要满足的条件不同且更为严格。\n重点：通篇来看鲍威尔在通胀问题上的“鸽派”更倾向于其对于当前通胀远高于目标，但政策却迟于行动这种妥协的辩解。Taper在年内落地基本无疑。\n与此同时还有一点，10月左右Taper官宣和债务上调TGA账户由泄洪转回笼窗口叠加，虽然从当前来看流动性应当还是比较充分，但双政策对预期以及对市场的影响不可忽视。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}