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eddieycs

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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-12-17
  Get out
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  713 评论
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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-11-09
  wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  806 评论
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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-06-21
  Oh noooo
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  450 评论
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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-04-29
  Love it!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  853 1
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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-04-29
  Please like n comment
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-04-16
  Wow wow wow
  $544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move
  While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire
  $544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move
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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-04-15
  Bad news.... Bring back the bull!! Please like
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-04-08
  Nice nice nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  391 1
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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-04-07
  Please like
  A 'significant' stock market 'consolidation' may only be months away: Deutsche Bank
  Nothing has been able to shake the new bull market in recent weeks — not a still elevated 10-year Tr
  A 'significant' stock market 'consolidation' may only be months away: Deutsche Bank
  627 评论
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- eddieycseddieycs
  ·2021-03-16
  Buy or bye???
  Why this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets
  KEY POINTS With the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the spotlight Wednesd
  Why this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets
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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100741004","repostId":"1128956391","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370212003,"gmtCreate":1618585853002,"gmtModify":1634291897362,"author":{"id":"3555304199872693","authorId":"3555304199872693","name":"eddieycs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367989630e5cd2e423956fe6e5caf819","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555304199872693","authorIdStr":"3555304199872693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow wow wow","listText":"Wow wow wow","text":"Wow wow wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370212003","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p>How to trade this?</p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><blockquote>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b></blockquote><p>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-16 22:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347331160,"gmtCreate":1618463358150,"gmtModify":1634292761103,"author":{"id":"3555304199872693","authorId":"3555304199872693","name":"eddieycs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367989630e5cd2e423956fe6e5caf819","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555304199872693","authorIdStr":"3555304199872693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bad news.... Bring back the bull!! Please like","listText":"Bad news.... Bring back the bull!! Please like","text":"Bad news.... Bring back the bull!! Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347331160","repostId":"1189551384","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341715100,"gmtCreate":1617855573400,"gmtModify":1634296120175,"author":{"id":"3555304199872693","authorId":"3555304199872693","name":"eddieycs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367989630e5cd2e423956fe6e5caf819","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555304199872693","authorIdStr":"3555304199872693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice nice nice","listText":"Nice nice nice","text":"Nice nice nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341715100","repostId":"2125726223","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341985211,"gmtCreate":1617771116633,"gmtModify":1634296596326,"author":{"id":"3555304199872693","authorId":"3555304199872693","name":"eddieycs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367989630e5cd2e423956fe6e5caf819","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555304199872693","authorIdStr":"3555304199872693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341985211","repostId":"1108754268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108754268","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617750152,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108754268?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-07 07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A 'significant' stock market 'consolidation' may only be months away: Deutsche Bank","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108754268","media":"yahoo finance","summary":"Nothing has been able to shake the new bull market in recent weeks — not a still elevated 10-year Tr","content":"<p>Nothing has been able to shake the new bull market in recent weeks — not a still elevated 10-year Treasury yield orthreats of higher taxeson the wealthy and corporations by the Biden administration.</p>\n<p>But the one thing that has powered the S&amp;P 500 beyond a record 4,000 — data that indicates a strong post COVID-19economic recovery is rapidly building— may turn out to ruin the rally. And it could play out within three months, warns widely followed Deutsche Bank Chief Strategist Binky Chadha.</p>\n<p>\"Very near term, we expect equities to continue to be well supported by the acceleration in macro growth, and see buying by systematic strategies and buybacks driving a grind higher. But we expect a significant consolidation (-6% to -10%) as growth peaks over the next three months,\" Chadha wrote in a new research note on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Chadha calls out peaking ISM data — which has been coming in hot of late — as the potential trigger point for a steep market pullback.</p>\n<p>\"Our house economics forecast implies a flattening out of the ISMs at elevated levels beginning in Q2 (64) and continuing into Q3 (63). There are a number of considerations though that suggest the monthly ISMs peak more sharply over the next three months and slow in keeping with the historical inverted-V shaped pattern. We look for discretionary investor equity positioning to be pared with a peak in the ISMs and do not expect retail to buy the dip. We then see equities rallying back as our baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation,\" explains Chadha.</p>\n<p>Thus far, investors are hardly positioned for any sizable spring/early summer swoon in stocks — with good reason as the economic data has been impressive.</p>\n<p>TheU.S. economy created 916,000 jobs in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. That crushed Wall Street estimates for a 660,000 increase. The gain has some economic forecasters tellingYahoo Finance Livethe economy could be on the verge of creating a million jobs a month very soon.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, data fromIHS Markitand theInstitute for Supply Managementon activity in the services sector on Monday blew the doors off analyst estimates as the ISM's activity index surged to a record high, as Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland wrote in theMorning Briefnewsletter. IHS Markit's reading was the best in seven years, noted Udland.</p>\n<p>And last but not least,corporate profit estimatesfor the first quarter have continued to trend noticeably higher amid the acceleration in economic data.</p>\n<p>But if economic data moderates as Chadha expects, the stock market could lose a key catalyst. That's not lost by Chadha's peers on Wall Street.</p>\n<p>\"Our view coming into 2021 was that earnings will drive markets higher and valuations will take a backseat, and actually be flat to down for the year. But the good news is actually starting to get priced in here, and we think it's going to become more challenging for investors and trickier,\" said Saira Malik, global equities chief investment officer and global portfolio manager at Nuveen, onYahoo Finance Live.</p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A 'significant' stock market 'consolidation' may only be months away: Deutsche Bank</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA 'significant' stock market 'consolidation' may only be months away: Deutsche Bank\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-07 07:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-significant-stock-market-consolidation-may-only-be-months-away-deutsche-bank-173851762.html><strong>yahoo finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nothing has been able to shake the new bull market in recent weeks — not a still elevated 10-year Treasury yield orthreats of higher taxeson the wealthy and corporations by the Biden administration.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-significant-stock-market-consolidation-may-only-be-months-away-deutsche-bank-173851762.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-significant-stock-market-consolidation-may-only-be-months-away-deutsche-bank-173851762.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108754268","content_text":"Nothing has been able to shake the new bull market in recent weeks — not a still elevated 10-year Treasury yield orthreats of higher taxeson the wealthy and corporations by the Biden administration.\nBut the one thing that has powered the S&P 500 beyond a record 4,000 — data that indicates a strong post COVID-19economic recovery is rapidly building— may turn out to ruin the rally. And it could play out within three months, warns widely followed Deutsche Bank Chief Strategist Binky Chadha.\n\"Very near term, we expect equities to continue to be well supported by the acceleration in macro growth, and see buying by systematic strategies and buybacks driving a grind higher. But we expect a significant consolidation (-6% to -10%) as growth peaks over the next three months,\" Chadha wrote in a new research note on Tuesday.\nChadha calls out peaking ISM data — which has been coming in hot of late — as the potential trigger point for a steep market pullback.\n\"Our house economics forecast implies a flattening out of the ISMs at elevated levels beginning in Q2 (64) and continuing into Q3 (63). There are a number of considerations though that suggest the monthly ISMs peak more sharply over the next three months and slow in keeping with the historical inverted-V shaped pattern. We look for discretionary investor equity positioning to be pared with a peak in the ISMs and do not expect retail to buy the dip. We then see equities rallying back as our baseline remains for strong growth but only a gradual and modest rise in inflation,\" explains Chadha.\nThus far, investors are hardly positioned for any sizable spring/early summer swoon in stocks — with good reason as the economic data has been impressive.\nTheU.S. economy created 916,000 jobs in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week. That crushed Wall Street estimates for a 660,000 increase. The gain has some economic forecasters tellingYahoo Finance Livethe economy could be on the verge of creating a million jobs a month very soon.\nMeanwhile, data fromIHS Markitand theInstitute for Supply Managementon activity in the services sector on Monday blew the doors off analyst estimates as the ISM's activity index surged to a record high, as Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland wrote in theMorning Briefnewsletter. IHS Markit's reading was the best in seven years, noted Udland.\nAnd last but not least,corporate profit estimatesfor the first quarter have continued to trend noticeably higher amid the acceleration in economic data.\nBut if economic data moderates as Chadha expects, the stock market could lose a key catalyst. That's not lost by Chadha's peers on Wall Street.\n\"Our view coming into 2021 was that earnings will drive markets higher and valuations will take a backseat, and actually be flat to down for the year. But the good news is actually starting to get priced in here, and we think it's going to become more challenging for investors and trickier,\" said Saira Malik, global equities chief investment officer and global portfolio manager at Nuveen, onYahoo Finance Live.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325100711,"gmtCreate":1615870538033,"gmtModify":1703494259225,"author":{"id":"3555304199872693","authorId":"3555304199872693","name":"eddieycs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367989630e5cd2e423956fe6e5caf819","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555304199872693","authorIdStr":"3555304199872693"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy or bye???","listText":"Buy or bye???","text":"Buy or bye???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325100711","repostId":"1105988154","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105988154","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615853416,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105988154?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 08:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105988154","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nWith the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the spotlight Wednesd","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nWith the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the spotlight Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the press after the Fed’s two-day meeting.\nThe Fed will...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/why-this-weeks-fed-meeting-could-be-march-madness-for-markets.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 08:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/why-this-weeks-fed-meeting-could-be-march-madness-for-markets.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nWith the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the spotlight Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the press after the Fed’s two-day meeting.\nThe Fed will...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/why-this-weeks-fed-meeting-could-be-march-madness-for-markets.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/15/why-this-weeks-fed-meeting-could-be-march-madness-for-markets.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1105988154","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nWith the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the spotlight Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the press after the Fed’s two-day meeting.\nThe Fed will release new economic and interest rate forecasts, which could show Fed officials expect to raise rates by 2023.\nBlackRock’s Rick Rieder said Powell’s briefing could be “exciting to see” and the Fed meeting could be the central bank’s “March Madness” for markets, since the chairman could begin to reveal some views on the future path of Fed policy.\n\nOdds are high the Fed will move markets this week, no matter how hard it tries not to.\nWith the surge in interest rates and rebounding economy, the Fed’s easy policies are in the spotlight, and increasingly the question has become when will it consider unwinding them. Fed Chairman Jerome Powellis likely to be asked questions about the Fed’s low interest rate policies and asset purchases during his press briefing, following the Fed’s two-day meeting that concludes Wednesday.\nPowell is unlikey to be specific but what he says could rock the already volatile bond market, and that in turn could drive stocks. It could particularly hit growth stocks, if bond yields begin to rise.\n“I think the last press conference, I think I watched with one eye, and listened with one ear. This one I’m going to be tuned in to every word, and the markets are going to be tuned in to every word,” said Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO for global fixed income. “If he says nothing, it will move markets. If he says a lot it will move markets.”\nRieder said the briefing should be “exciting to see,” and a challenge for the Fed to potentially begin changing communications on its policy. He said investors will be parsing every word. “This will be the March Madness,” for the markets, he said, referring to the highly anticipated collegiate basketball tournament.\nPowell clearly has the ball, and what he decides to say Wednesday will dictate to edgy markets how soon the Fed might consider paring back its bond buying and even raising interest rates from zero.\nStatement to stay mostly the same\nThe Federal Open Market Committee will release its statement at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, after the meeting, and Fed watchers expect little change in the text.\nBut the Fed also releases officials’ latest forecasts for the economy and interest rates. That could show that most officials would be ready to raise the fed funds target rate range from zero in 2023, and a few members may even be ready to raise rates next year.\n“We think they will sound a bit more optimistic but still cautious. That said, we think it will be hard for them to sound as dovish as they have been just because the facts on the ground are improving,” said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short-rate strategy at Bank of America. “As a result of that, we think they’re going to sound a little less accommodative than the market is expecting. We think they’re likely to show a hike at the end of 2023.”\nRieder said the Fed’s been steadily steering its easing programs, but now it needs to begin to communicate that it expects to change policy on both asset purchases and interest rates. He said the Fed has been explicit in that it would provide plenty of time between when it starts communicating change and when it acts.\n“It strikes me it’s time,” he said. Rieder said his out-of-consensus view is that the Fed could start tapering back its bond buying in September or December, and it needs to begin discussing that now. The Fed buys $80 billion a month of Treasurys and $40 billion a month of mortgages.\nHe also said the Fed could also start raising short-term interest rates next year without hurting the economy. The Fed has not forecast any interest rate hikes until after 2023, but that could change in its latest forecast.\n“They can’t raise short interest rates this year, but as you get into the second and third quarter of next year, not raising short-term interest rates would be incongruous with what their economic projections should be,” Rieder said.\nRates on the rise\nThe Fed meets against a back drop of rate volatility in the more typically staid Treasury market. Over the past six weeks, the 10-year yield,which influences mortgage rates and other loans, has risen from 1.07% to a high of 1.64% last Friday. It was at 1.6% Monday.\nThe yield, which moves opposite price, has been reacting to a more upbeat view of the economy, based on the vaccine rollout and Washington’s stimulus spending. It has also reacted to the idea that inflation could pick up as the economy roars back. Powell has said the Fed expects to see just a temporary jump in inflation measures in the spring because of the depressed prices during the economic shutdown last year.\n“They’ve got to start that communication ... the markets are waiting for it,” Rieder said. “The jumpiness of rates and the volatility in the market is because we haven’t heard their plan yet.”\nRieder said the Fed could raise interest rates while it is still buying bonds. He said it may want to shift its purchases more towards the long end to keep longer term rates low, since they impact mortgages and other loans.\n“In their economic projections, their employment projections for next year is probably going to be 4%. If that’s right, why not? Raising short-end interest rates and draining some liquidity out of the front part of the yield curve is not a problem,” he said.\n“Times like these call for creativity and innovation,” Rieder said. “They’ve been remarkably innovative. They’ve provided so much liquidity to the system, the front end is awash in liquidity and yields are too low, in an environment where you could have 7% growth this year.”.\nIn the last forecast, five of 17 members expected a rate hike in 2023, and just one forecast a hike in 2022. Fed officials provide their rate forecasts anonymously, on a so-called dot plot.\nThe Fed has said it would continue its bond purchases until it’s made “substantial progress” towards its goals.\nCabana said there could be a few officials who now forecast a hike for 2022, but he doesn’t expect the Fed to embrace that yet. The fed funds futures market is pricing in close to one hike in 2022 and three hikes by the end of 2023.\n“You think if the market is pricing that, and the Fed doesn’t deliver, the market should be disappointed. We actually think many in the market think the Fed will push back, and the Fed will tell the market it’s wrong,” said Cabana. “We don’t think so. We think the Fed will retain the optionality of having the market price in a rosier outlook. Does the Fed hope the market is right, or they’re right? The Fed is hoping the market is right because it wants to achieve its goal sooner. We don’t think the Fed is going to push back too hard.”\nThe Fed could say “substantive progress is still some time away,” Cabana said. He said he does expect the Fed at some point to change the duration of bonds it is buying and shift towards the long end to keep those rates, like the 10-year, from rising too much.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}