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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
05-01 21:45
最近几次几个标的都是差点运气买进去，三连老虎🐯希望这是一次好运的开始吧
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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
04-27
这次不是准了吗？第一波调整跌破800在780左右准备发起第二波公斤到750-760
黄金“技术性回调”的理由：三大指标都指向“调整”，甚至“幅度不小”？
经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。
黄金“技术性回调”的理由：三大指标都指向“调整”，甚至“幅度不小”？
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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
04-24
$UVXY 20250425 24.0 PUT$
纪念一下第一次权利金清零，用真金白银的学费证明方向猜对没买对合约也是白瞎了[流泪]
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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
04-24
$古茗(01364)$
这是打新亏本，后面连续涨了三倍的股票？咋理解上市不涨，后面涨，难道这俩月有特别利好吗
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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
04-23
$TSLA 20250425 200.0 CALL$
先闪了，昨天睡觉前迷迷糊糊搞的今天睡觉前落袋为安，财报会可能到250以上，期权到60也心满意足了[开心]
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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
04-15
$YINN 20250502 34.0 CALL$
这是啥情况，YINN没跌，你跌那么多？这是跟谁呢你
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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
04-11
Replying to
@爱投资的杰森
:霸王不是港股吗//
@爱投资的杰森
:霸王茶姬吃肉吃肉
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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
04-10
盘前加的最少十多个点啊
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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
04-10
$1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF(UVXY)$
昨天暴跌这只call为啥还是涨得呢？请教一下确定好标的和方向后如何选期权收益更大
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Yangsirisme
Yangsirisme
·
04-10
$UVXY 20250425 28.0 CALL$
一夜之间如此疯狂，从风险预警到增加了1/3的市值疯狂[捂脸]
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14:14","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"黄金“技术性回调”的理由：三大指标都指向“调整”，甚至“幅度不小”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2530175461","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近期，黄金价格突破3500美元创下历史新高，吸引全球投资者的目光。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，野村证券最新研究显示，三大关键指标同时发出警报信号，预示黄金市场可能即将迎来一波"技术性回调"，且调整幅度或"相当可观"。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36fe17ddadf16e64b7752be876f2b1a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"587\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1450506710\">经济放缓指标：美联储资本支出指标亮起红灯</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>野村经济学家团队追踪的"美联储综合预期资本开支指数"(Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index)最近跌破-4。</strong>该指数汇总了各区域联储调查数据，按经济贡献度加权平均计算。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">直观地看，当该指数大幅跌入负值区间时，"实际核心资本货物订单"通常会在随后出现断崖式下滑，反映关税政策已对实体经济产生实质拖累。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15f5fd929f4bcefb9ce35884dc61c9ba\" tg-width=\"461\" tg-height=\"499\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">野村在报告中写道，<strong>这一指标的预警能力极强——在过去6次触发中，有5次成功预示了经济衰退。</strong>同时，罗素指数（代表经济敏感型/周期性行业）在未来3个月内通常呈现极度负面走势，而10年期国债收益率在随后2周至1个月内先上升，之后转为下行。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c18b0bea7ea1b90bb8c28d74442e7f2b\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更直接相关的是，当该指数跌破-4时，黄金在随后2个月的表现往往不佳。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cdced0837e2355338df2afd70bd6e8b\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"354\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">野村认为，这一指数预计4月将进一步降至-6水平，强化了警示信号的可信度。</p><h2 id=\"id_3220443397\">资金流向异常：市场狂热后急剧降温</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>第二个警示信号来自资金流向。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">野村观察到当前市场出现"黄金狂热过度"的历史性异常值：数据显示，GLD在两周内经历了超过历史95%水平的资金流入，随后又出现了同样超过历史95%水平的单日资金流出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">野村分析认为，<strong>这反映"晚入场投资者/弱势持有者"开始平仓，可能引发更大规模的抛售潮。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">野村的数据显示，<strong>这种"大进大出"模式在历史上共出现过9次，前8次几乎都精准预示黄金将迎来回调</strong>，且最差表现通常集中在接下来的2个月内。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c0eceb33ef175a9bf2d16b48a3c6c1\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这里，我们补充一个具体数据，今天早上的快讯也提到，本周早些时候，投资者从SPDR黄金ETF撤出12.7亿美元，创2011年以来最大单日资金流出量，恰逢金价触及3500美元上方的历史高点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，2011年，类似的资金流出现象恰逢黄金上一次超级周期峰值，随后黄金进入了长期盘整期，直到2020年才得以突破。这一历史情况为当前市场提供了一定参考意义。</p><h2 id=\"id_2142749995\">技术面指标：金价与长期均线偏离度过大</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>第三个警示基于技术面分析。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周末，黄金交易价格已高出200日移动平均线25%以上，处于野村描述为"相当荒谬"(pretty absurd)的过热水平。这种与长期趋势线的过度偏离，历史上往往意味着市场需要修正。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">野村的历史数据分析显示，每当金价与200日均线产生如此大的偏离时，金价在接下来2个月内往往出现明显回调。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金“技术性回调”的理由：三大指标都指向“调整”，甚至“幅度不小”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-26 14:14 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745983><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。近期，黄金价格突破3500美元创下历史新高，吸引全球投资者的目光。然而，野村证券最新研究显示，三大关键指标同时发出警报信号，预示黄金市场可能即将迎来一波\"技术性回调\"，且调整幅度或\"相当可观\"。经济放缓指标：美联储资本支出指标亮起红灯野村经济学家团队追踪的\"美联储综合预期资本开支指数\"(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745983\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745983","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2530175461","content_text":"经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。近期，黄金价格突破3500美元创下历史新高，吸引全球投资者的目光。然而，野村证券最新研究显示，三大关键指标同时发出警报信号，预示黄金市场可能即将迎来一波\"技术性回调\"，且调整幅度或\"相当可观\"。经济放缓指标：美联储资本支出指标亮起红灯野村经济学家团队追踪的\"美联储综合预期资本开支指数\"(Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index)最近跌破-4。该指数汇总了各区域联储调查数据，按经济贡献度加权平均计算。直观地看，当该指数大幅跌入负值区间时，\"实际核心资本货物订单\"通常会在随后出现断崖式下滑，反映关税政策已对实体经济产生实质拖累。野村在报告中写道，这一指标的预警能力极强——在过去6次触发中，有5次成功预示了经济衰退。同时，罗素指数（代表经济敏感型/周期性行业）在未来3个月内通常呈现极度负面走势，而10年期国债收益率在随后2周至1个月内先上升，之后转为下行。更直接相关的是，当该指数跌破-4时，黄金在随后2个月的表现往往不佳。野村认为，这一指数预计4月将进一步降至-6水平，强化了警示信号的可信度。资金流向异常：市场狂热后急剧降温第二个警示信号来自资金流向。野村观察到当前市场出现\"黄金狂热过度\"的历史性异常值：数据显示，GLD在两周内经历了超过历史95%水平的资金流入，随后又出现了同样超过历史95%水平的单日资金流出。野村分析认为，这反映\"晚入场投资者/弱势持有者\"开始平仓，可能引发更大规模的抛售潮。野村的数据显示，这种\"大进大出\"模式在历史上共出现过9次，前8次几乎都精准预示黄金将迎来回调，且最差表现通常集中在接下来的2个月内。这里，我们补充一个具体数据，今天早上的快讯也提到，本周早些时候，投资者从SPDR黄金ETF撤出12.7亿美元，创2011年以来最大单日资金流出量，恰逢金价触及3500美元上方的历史高点。值得注意的是，2011年，类似的资金流出现象恰逢黄金上一次超级周期峰值，随后黄金进入了长期盘整期，直到2020年才得以突破。这一历史情况为当前市场提供了一定参考意义。技术面指标：金价与长期均线偏离度过大第三个警示基于技术面分析。上周末，黄金交易价格已高出200日移动平均线25%以上，处于野村描述为\"相当荒谬\"(pretty 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纪念一下第一次权利金清零，用真金白银的学费证明方向猜对没买对合约也是白瞎了[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ed0ca0f81a217d33019f3bcb37d2d7d","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/427985169543192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"14287392612900","authorId":"14287392612900","name":"姐夫这一生啊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/508a4f61b12b38b3c8bec2b30795e1fe","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"14287392612900","authorIdStr":"14287392612900"},"content":"这只虚值期权跟股价相差太大了。又不能快速下跌。没有内在价值只有时间价值每天都在损失价值。买进这只期权，时间就是你的敌人。当初你要是sell put 时间就是你的朋友[贱笑]","text":"这只虚值期权跟股价相差太大了。又不能快速下跌。没有内在价值只有时间价值每天都在损失价值。买进这只期权，时间就是你的敌人。当初你要是sell put 时间就是你的朋友[贱笑]","html":"这只虚值期权跟股价相差太大了。又不能快速下跌。没有内在价值只有时间价值每天都在损失价值。买进这只期权，时间就是你的敌人。当初你要是sell put 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这是打新亏本，后面连续涨了三倍的股票？咋理解上市不涨，后面涨，难道这俩月有特别利好吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/427860736119520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":427272907411632,"gmtCreate":1745338010641,"gmtModify":1745338013014,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250425 200.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20250425 200.0 CALL$</a> 先闪了，昨天睡觉前迷迷糊糊搞的今天睡觉前落袋为安，财报会可能到250以上，期权到60也心满意足了[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250425 200.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20250425 200.0 CALL$</a> 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这是啥情况，YINN没跌，你跌那么多？这是跟谁呢你","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fb5bea30859ba3b8ba53606ffeed02","width":"1179","height":"2268"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/424753404695168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"content":"要疯掉，还是得被大a带崩","text":"要疯掉，还是得被大a带崩","html":"要疯掉，还是得被大a带崩"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":423296613200432,"gmtCreate":1744352547313,"gmtModify":1744352550063,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560818482432945","authorIdStr":"3560818482432945"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4197001799809432\">@爱投资的杰森</a>:霸王不是港股吗//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4197001799809432\">@爱投资的杰森</a>:霸王茶姬吃肉吃肉","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4197001799809432\">@爱投资的杰森</a>:霸王不是港股吗//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4197001799809432\">@爱投资的杰森</a>:霸王茶姬吃肉吃肉","text":"Replying to 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