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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-09-11
  Good
  One Small Step From Apple Could Mean A Giant Leap For GlobalStar<blockquote>苹果迈出的一小步可能意味着GlobalStar的一大步</blockquote>
  Summary At first sight, Globalstar is just one more satellite communications play. Looking deeper,
  One Small Step From Apple Could Mean A Giant Leap For GlobalStar<blockquote>苹果迈出的一小步可能意味着GlobalStar的一大步</blockquote>
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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-09-05
  good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,233 评论
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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-08-25
  good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  911 评论
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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-08-14
  Good
  Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>
  Summary Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the "d
  Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>
  1,255 评论
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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-08-08
  Good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,795 1
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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-08-01
  good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,213 1
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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-07-28
  good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,718 1
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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-07-24
  Hi
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,300 评论
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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-07-22
  good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,208 1
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- FannyhanFannyhan
  ·2021-07-21
  Good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,332 评论
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09:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"One Small Step From Apple Could Mean A Giant Leap For GlobalStar<blockquote>苹果迈出的一小步可能意味着GlobalStar的一大步</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127461097","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAt first sight, Globalstar is just one more satellite communications play.\nLooking deeper, ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>At first sight, Globalstar is just one more satellite communications play.</li>  <li>Looking deeper, its Band n53, which offers secure and reliable connectivity in any environment, is now included into Qualcomm's latest 5G modems for smartphones.</li>  <li>Being selected by Apple could mean a lot for Globalstar in its strategy to boost and diversify revenues, as well as change the current loss-making status.</li>  <li>Even without Apple, the company merits interest, but only as a long-term beneficiary of IoT amid fierce competition and ability to reduce debt.</li>  <li>Valuations are sky-high in light of all the news hitting the market and, it is better to wait for some concrete news at Apple's event next week before investing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6c50a6d200b5d8c35f4d14498600c9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>metamorworks/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>乍一看，Globalstar只是又一个卫星通信游戏。</li><li>更深入地看，其频段n53可在任何环境下提供安全可靠的连接，现已包含在高通最新的智能手机5G调制解调器中。</li><li>被苹果选中对于Globalstar增加收入和实现收入多元化以及改变目前亏损状况的战略来说意义重大。</li><li>即使没有苹果，该公司也值得关注，但只是作为物联网在激烈竞争和减少债务能力中的长期受益者。</li><li>鉴于市场上的所有消息，估值都非常高，最好在投资之前等待下周苹果活动上的一些具体消息。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>metamorworks/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Globalstar's (GSAT) shares soared 40% on August 30 after a report by&nbsp;MacRumors&nbsp;which cited expert Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) analyst&nbsp;Ming-Chi Kuo&nbsp;of TF International Securities, about iPhone 13 using satellite connectivity so that users can make calls and texts in areas without cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>8月30日，MacRumors援引天风国际证券苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）分析师郭明錤的一份报告称，iPhone 13使用卫星连接，以便用户可以进行评级，Globalstar(GSAT)股价飙升40%。在没有蜂窝覆盖的区域发送短信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd859c3544ffd37de25d5bc8dfe3166\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Soon afterwards, there were some further clarification by Bloomberg specifying that those features aren't due soon, but rather for future iPhones and should&nbsp;allow users to issue crash reports or text messages in areas without cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>不久之后，彭博进一步澄清说，这些功能不会很快推出，而是适用于未来的iPhones，应该允许用户在没有手机覆盖的地区发布崩溃报告或短信。</blockquote></p><p> Now, for Apple to even consider adding any satellite-based feature to its global brand would mean a lot for Globalstar, but first, for investors, I make sense of it all.</p><p><blockquote>现在，苹果甚至考虑在其全球品牌中添加任何基于卫星的功能对Globalstar来说意义重大，但首先，对于投资者来说，我明白这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reasons for Apple to choose Globalstar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果选择Globalstar的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> For most of us, our experience with satellite-based internet has meant poor or sometimes erratic connectivity, but these were mostly with the geostationary satellites located far above the earth's surface. Instead, the opportunities offered by Globalstar's Low Earth Orbit (\"LEO\") satellites are much better, especially in areas that don't have 4G or 5G cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>对于我们大多数人来说，我们对基于卫星的互联网的体验意味着糟糕或有时不稳定的连接，但这些大多是与位于地球表面上方的地球同步卫星。相反，Globalstar的低地球轨道（“LEO”）卫星提供的机会要好得多，尤其是在没有4G或5G蜂窝覆盖的地区。</blockquote></p><p> To have an idea of the potential of LEO satellites, one can take a glance at Elon Musk’s SpaceX's (SPACE). These have been deployed at locations in the U.S and the U.K. with several customers already having signed up to the service. Bench-marking by Speedtest showed download speeds of&nbsp;97.23 Mbps,or far superior than those for other traditional providers. This speed was lower than the 115.22 Mbps median speed for fixed broadband providers, but makes sense for \"disadvantaged locations\" where telcos find it uneconomical to lay down additional fiber or expand cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>要了解低地球轨道卫星的潜力，可以看看埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的SpaceX(SPACE)。这些服务已部署在美国和英国，一些客户已经注册了该服务。Speedtest的基准测试显示，下载速度为97.23 Mbps，远远高于其他传统供应商。这一速度低于固定宽带提供商115.22 Mbps的中值速度，但对于电信公司发现铺设额外光纤或扩大蜂窝覆盖不经济的“弱势地区”来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, given the enormous potential of the blending between the iPhone and satellite connectivity, news about Apple using Globalstar's network only for emergency purposes seems more aimed at not alarming its telco partners with whom it has been working since decades.</p><p><blockquote>因此，鉴于iPhone和卫星连接融合的巨大潜力，有关苹果仅出于紧急目的使用Globalstar网络的消息似乎更多的是为了不惊动与其合作数十年的电信合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> This blending is made possible by Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM) inclusion of Globalstar's band n53 in its new 5G X65 modem. This should also expand the satellite operator's potential device ecosystem significantly to include smartphones, laptops and tablets.</p><p><blockquote>高通（纳斯达克：QCOM）在其新的5G X65调制解调器中包含了Globalstar的n53频段，这使得这种混合成为可能。这也应该会显着扩大卫星运营商的潜在设备生态系统，将智能手机、笔记本电脑和平板电脑包括在内。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, the&nbsp;Snapdragon X65&nbsp;will be released in the fall of&nbsp;2022, most likely into next year’s iPhone. Better peak performance and other benefits should be there, but some will require carriers to upgrade their networks. On the other hand, with band n53, one can imagine the transformation of future mobility communications with a single operator plan anywhere in the world, without necessitating roaming, with no need to buy local SIM cards.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，骁龙X 65将于2022年秋季发布，很可能会进入明年的iPhone。应该会有更好的峰值性能和其他好处，但有些需要运营商升级他们的网络。另一方面，有了n53频段，人们可以想象未来移动通信的转变，在世界任何地方，通过单一运营商计划，无需漫游，无需购买本地SIM卡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Globalstar's differentiation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球星的差异化</b></blockquote></p><p> Thus, this is not just about emergency calls or messaging and in a way, shows Globalstar's edge as a satellite network operator over telco's mobile network operations.</p><p><blockquote>因此，这不仅仅是关于紧急评级或消息传递，在某种程度上，显示了Globalstar作为卫星网络运营商相对于电信公司移动网络运营的优势。</blockquote></p><p> Now, satellite communications is a huge industry, estimated at $56.01 billion&nbsp;in 2019 and expected to hit $99.58 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2027. Going deeper, there are several satellite operators and service providers, with Iridium (IRDM) and Orbcomm (ORBC). Other companies are involved in space technology like DISH Networks (DISH) and AT&amp;T (T).</p><p><blockquote>现在，卫星通信是一个巨大的产业，2019年估计为560.1亿美元，预计到2027年将达到995.8亿美元，2020年至2027年的CAGR为9.2%。更深入地说，有几家卫星运营商和服务提供商，包括铱星(IRDM)和Orbcomm(ORBC)。其他公司也涉足太空技术，如DISH Networks(DISH)和AT&amp;T(T)。</blockquote></p><p> Here, GlobalStar seems to be having some key strengths with respect to peers.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，GlobalStar似乎相对于同行拥有一些关键优势。</blockquote></p><p> According to the company's website, its&nbsp;strategically&nbsp;placed gateways offer local network access and national numbering plans as opposed to other LEO systems that require expensive international dialing for all calls. Also, Globalstar has a unique design which allows it to offer the most attractive local dialing and pricing plans to customers.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的网站，其战略性放置的网关提供本地网络接入和国家编号计划，而其他LEO系统需要为所有评级进行昂贵的国际拨号。此外，Globalstar拥有独特的设计，使其能够向客户提供最具吸引力的本地拨号和定价计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Pursuing further, Globalstar’s 24 ground stations also serve as a bridge between LEO satellites and traditional communications infrastructure on six continents, with coverage spanning across over 120 countries throughout the world. Furthermore, the second generation ground infrastructure is based on the Internet protocol multimedia subsystem (\"IMS\") protocol, which facilitates the use of IP (Internet Protocol) for packet communications over wireless or landline.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Globalstar的24个地面站还充当了低地球轨道卫星和六大洲传统通信基础设施之间的桥梁，覆盖全球120多个国家。此外，第二代地面基础设施基于因特网协议多媒体子系统(“IMS”)协议，其便于使用IP(因特网协议)进行无线或陆线上的分组通信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ab07af4d39eb03b1776e870748b773f\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: globalstar.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：globalstar.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Globalstar brings some attractive metrics for a behemoth like Apple looking to penetrate new markets. In this respect, according to a source, more than&nbsp;five billion mobile subscribers&nbsp;constantly move in and out of wireless coverage, representing a huge TAM.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Globalstar为像苹果这样寻求渗透新市场的巨头带来了一些有吸引力的指标。在这方面，根据一个消息来源，超过50亿的移动用户不断地进出无线覆盖，这代表了一个巨大的TAM。</blockquote></p><p> Bagging a contract with Apple, even a partial one, or in partnership with another peer would increase the volume of new subscribers, which should in turn more than offset the current revenue impact from lower ARPU (Average Revenue per User).</p><p><blockquote>与苹果签订合同，即使是部分合同，或者与另一家同行合作，都会增加新用户数量，这反过来应该足以抵消当前ARPU（每用户平均收入）下降对收入的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The revenues</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall sales have gone down in the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year as higher revenue generated from subscriber equipment related to SPOT (the largest segment) was offset by lower service revenues. For investors, SPOT is a GPS tracking device that uses Globalstar's satellite network to provide text messaging and GPS tracking.</p><p><blockquote>与去年相比，2021年第二季度的整体销售额有所下降，因为与SPOT（最大的细分市场）相关的用户设备产生的更高收入被服务收入的下降所抵消。对于投资者来说，SPOT是一款GPS跟踪设备，它使用Globalstar的卫星网络提供短信和GPS跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> Looking deeper, service revenue also decreased over the prior year's quarter due to fewer Duplex subscribers, with the decline expected to continue as Globalstar focuses resources on other revenue streams, like IoT-enabled devices. This is done in light of the shift in demand across the MSS (mobile satellite services) industry.</p><p><blockquote>更深入地看，由于双工用户减少，服务收入也比去年同期下降，随着Globalstar将资源集中在其他收入流（例如支持物联网的设备）上，预计这种下降将持续下去。这是鉴于整个MSS（移动卫星服务）行业的需求转变而完成的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e8b74a670c927d2d84f1751cfd4a148\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"457\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, service revenues generated from commercial IoT subscribers increased 5% in the second quarter of 2021 driven by higher ARPU compared to the prior year's quarter. Additionally, IoT equipment sales were up significantly from the prior year period, which is a key indication of future service revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，由于ARPU较上年同期上升，2021年第二季度商业物联网用户产生的服务收入增长了5%。此外，物联网设备销售额较去年同期大幅增长，这是未来服务收入增长的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Thinking aloud, lower ARPU for SPOT also points to competition, with Globalstar competing aggressively on price in the industrial, governmental and consumer markets. Looking at&nbsp;satellite phones and communication gadgets, some of the competitors include Garmin's (GRMN) InReach, Iridium Go and the Thuraya X5-Touch, which is a dual-SIM Android smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>仔细想想，SPOT较低的ARPU也表明了竞争，Globalstar在工业、政府和消费市场上进行了激烈的价格竞争。从卫星电话和通信设备来看，一些竞争对手包括Garmin(GRMN)的InReach、Iridium Go和Thuraya X5-Touch（一款双卡Android智能手机）。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the company has to cut prices with its “competitively-priced service plans being lower than historic rates”. Therefore, SPOT revenues should continue to decline in the near term, with higher volumes of activations not being able to offset the effects of lower ARPU on sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司不得不降价，其“价格有竞争力的服务计划低于历史费率”。因此，现货收入在短期内应该会继续下降，更高的激活量无法抵消较低的ARPU对销售的影响。</blockquote></p><p> A comparison with rival Iridium shows contrasting revenue trends, with Globalstar being on a fluctuating trend since the end of 2019, coinciding with more competition.</p><p><blockquote>与竞争对手铱星的比较显示了截然不同的收入趋势，Globalstar自2019年底以来一直处于波动趋势，同时竞争更加激烈。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be74c4a607fae52a664620ba3cf9d68\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Charts built through data from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：通过Seeking Alpha的数据构建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, adopting a cautionary posture, a change in the revenue-generating model geared towards IoT may take time to execute, whereby sales figures could drop further. This may in turn lead to missing topline expectations during the third quarter results, causing the share price to dip. For this matter, as I had pointed out in my previousthesis, one of the risks in investing in Globalstar is its dependence on the fortunes of the oil and gas industry.</p><p><blockquote>因此，采取谨慎的态度，面向物联网的创收模式的改变可能需要时间来执行，从而销售数字可能会进一步下降。这反过来可能会导致第三季度业绩未达到预期，导致股价下跌。就此而言，正如我在之前的论文中指出的那样，投资Globalstar的风险之一是其对石油和天然气行业命运的依赖。</blockquote></p><p> On the positive side, the company continues to reduce leverage, with less than $50 million of net first lien principal outstanding at the end of Q2-2021.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的一面来看，该公司继续降低杠杆率，截至2021年第二季度末，未偿第一留置权本金净额不到5000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, the company held $15.7 million and $51.0 million of cash and restricted cash respectively. Globalstar has received an additional&nbsp;$37.5 million&nbsp;in advance payment from a customer. The new payment is under \"substantially the same terms\" as a similar $37.5 million payment received on&nbsp;June 9. As with the other payment, Globalstar will use the new $37.5 million in proceeds to pay down indebtedness under its first-lien credit facility. In the last report, the company had&nbsp;$313.4 million&nbsp;in long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，该公司分别持有1570万美元和5100万美元的现金和限制性现金。Globalstar已收到客户额外支付的3750万美元预付款。新付款的条款与6月9日收到的类似3750万美元付款“基本相同”。与其他付款一样，Globalstar将使用新的3750万美元收益来偿还其第一留置权信贷安排下的债务。在上一份报告中，该公司的长期债务为3.134亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations and key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值和主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As much as 16% of revenues were derived from IoT in the first six months of 2021, up from 14% in the same period last year. Now, in a market growing at&nbsp;10.1%&nbsp;from 2019 to 2025, there is a lot of scope, but it will also depend on Globalstar's ability to meaningfully identify, pursue and close large deals. This should contribute to further diversify its revenue base away from full Duplex.</p><p><blockquote>2021年前六个月，多达16%的收入来自物联网，高于去年同期的14%。现在，在一个从2019年到2025年以10.1%的速度增长的市场中，有很大的空间，但这也将取决于Globalstar有意义地识别、追求和完成大型交易的能力。这应有助于进一步多元化其收入基础，摆脱全双工。</blockquote></p><p> The company has also performed successful field testing for remote monitoring in the alternative energy industry, which it expects to materialize into future sales, but without mentioning a timeline.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还成功地在替代能源行业进行了远程监控的现场测试，预计这将在未来的销售中实现，但没有提及时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, this is a loss-making company with losses from operations having increased by $0.6 million during the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year. Earnings per share which was&nbsp;-$0.01&nbsp;for the second quarter is expected to be the same in the third one. This compares to positive figures for the communications sector, which boasts forward Price to Earnings multiples of&nbsp;20x. This signifies no buying opportunity based on fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这是一家亏损公司，与去年相比，2021年第二季度的运营亏损增加了60万美元。第二季度每股收益为-0.01美元，预计第三季度将持平。相比之下，通信行业的预期市盈率为20倍。这意味着没有基于基本面的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The only way Globalstar's loss status could change rapidly is commercialization of its n53 spectrum in the U.S. and other countries through presence in the iPhone ecosystem. A partnership with Apple will permit expansion of the satellite communications business, more effective utilization of network assets and enable Globalstar to leapfrog rivals. The fact that both companies work with Qualcomm is a positive for Globalstar.</p><p><blockquote>Globalstar的损失状况能够迅速改变的唯一方法是通过iPhone生态系统在美国和其他国家实现其n53频谱的商业化。与苹果的合作将允许扩大卫星通信业务，更有效地利用网络资产，并使Globalstar能够超越竞争对手。两家公司都与高通合作的事实对Globalstar来说是一个积极的因素。</blockquote></p><p> This said, in absence of corporate announcements, Globalstar's stock has been surging amid ongoing speculation that its satellite communication technology may be included in Apple's new iPhone models, resulting in&nbsp;high&nbsp;Price to Sales multiples of over 2000% with respect to the communications sector.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在没有公司公告的情况下，Globalstar的股价一直在飙升，因为人们不断猜测其卫星通信技术可能会包含在苹果的新款iPhone中，导致通信行业的市销率超过2000%。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, for rational investors, it is preferable to wait for an update at the\"California Streaming\" event&nbsp;on September 14 before making a decision. In the meantime, the stock could drop to the $2 support level.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于理性投资者来说，最好等待9月14日“加州流媒体”活动的更新后再做出决定。与此同时，该股可能会跌至2美元的支撑位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Small Step From Apple Could Mean A Giant Leap For GlobalStar<blockquote>苹果迈出的一小步可能意味着GlobalStar的一大步</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Small Step From Apple Could Mean A Giant Leap For GlobalStar<blockquote>苹果迈出的一小步可能意味着GlobalStar的一大步</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 09:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>At first sight, Globalstar is just one more satellite communications play.</li>  <li>Looking deeper, its Band n53, which offers secure and reliable connectivity in any environment, is now included into Qualcomm's latest 5G modems for smartphones.</li>  <li>Being selected by Apple could mean a lot for Globalstar in its strategy to boost and diversify revenues, as well as change the current loss-making status.</li>  <li>Even without Apple, the company merits interest, but only as a long-term beneficiary of IoT amid fierce competition and ability to reduce debt.</li>  <li>Valuations are sky-high in light of all the news hitting the market and, it is better to wait for some concrete news at Apple's event next week before investing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6c50a6d200b5d8c35f4d14498600c9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>metamorworks/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>乍一看，Globalstar只是又一个卫星通信游戏。</li><li>更深入地看，其频段n53可在任何环境下提供安全可靠的连接，现已包含在高通最新的智能手机5G调制解调器中。</li><li>被苹果选中对于Globalstar增加收入和实现收入多元化以及改变目前亏损状况的战略来说意义重大。</li><li>即使没有苹果，该公司也值得关注，但只是作为物联网在激烈竞争和减少债务能力中的长期受益者。</li><li>鉴于市场上的所有消息，估值都非常高，最好在投资之前等待下周苹果活动上的一些具体消息。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>metamorworks/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Globalstar's (GSAT) shares soared 40% on August 30 after a report by&nbsp;MacRumors&nbsp;which cited expert Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) analyst&nbsp;Ming-Chi Kuo&nbsp;of TF International Securities, about iPhone 13 using satellite connectivity so that users can make calls and texts in areas without cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>8月30日，MacRumors援引天风国际证券苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）分析师郭明錤的一份报告称，iPhone 13使用卫星连接，以便用户可以进行评级，Globalstar(GSAT)股价飙升40%。在没有蜂窝覆盖的区域发送短信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd859c3544ffd37de25d5bc8dfe3166\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Soon afterwards, there were some further clarification by Bloomberg specifying that those features aren't due soon, but rather for future iPhones and should&nbsp;allow users to issue crash reports or text messages in areas without cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>不久之后，彭博进一步澄清说，这些功能不会很快推出，而是适用于未来的iPhones，应该允许用户在没有手机覆盖的地区发布崩溃报告或短信。</blockquote></p><p> Now, for Apple to even consider adding any satellite-based feature to its global brand would mean a lot for Globalstar, but first, for investors, I make sense of it all.</p><p><blockquote>现在，苹果甚至考虑在其全球品牌中添加任何基于卫星的功能对Globalstar来说意义重大，但首先，对于投资者来说，我明白这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Reasons for Apple to choose Globalstar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果选择Globalstar的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> For most of us, our experience with satellite-based internet has meant poor or sometimes erratic connectivity, but these were mostly with the geostationary satellites located far above the earth's surface. Instead, the opportunities offered by Globalstar's Low Earth Orbit (\"LEO\") satellites are much better, especially in areas that don't have 4G or 5G cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>对于我们大多数人来说，我们对基于卫星的互联网的体验意味着糟糕或有时不稳定的连接，但这些大多是与位于地球表面上方的地球同步卫星。相反，Globalstar的低地球轨道（“LEO”）卫星提供的机会要好得多，尤其是在没有4G或5G蜂窝覆盖的地区。</blockquote></p><p> To have an idea of the potential of LEO satellites, one can take a glance at Elon Musk’s SpaceX's (SPACE). These have been deployed at locations in the U.S and the U.K. with several customers already having signed up to the service. Bench-marking by Speedtest showed download speeds of&nbsp;97.23 Mbps,or far superior than those for other traditional providers. This speed was lower than the 115.22 Mbps median speed for fixed broadband providers, but makes sense for \"disadvantaged locations\" where telcos find it uneconomical to lay down additional fiber or expand cellular coverage.</p><p><blockquote>要了解低地球轨道卫星的潜力，可以看看埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的SpaceX(SPACE)。这些服务已部署在美国和英国，一些客户已经注册了该服务。Speedtest的基准测试显示，下载速度为97.23 Mbps，远远高于其他传统供应商。这一速度低于固定宽带提供商115.22 Mbps的中值速度，但对于电信公司发现铺设额外光纤或扩大蜂窝覆盖不经济的“弱势地区”来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, given the enormous potential of the blending between the iPhone and satellite connectivity, news about Apple using Globalstar's network only for emergency purposes seems more aimed at not alarming its telco partners with whom it has been working since decades.</p><p><blockquote>因此，鉴于iPhone和卫星连接融合的巨大潜力，有关苹果仅出于紧急目的使用Globalstar网络的消息似乎更多的是为了不惊动与其合作数十年的电信合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> This blending is made possible by Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM) inclusion of Globalstar's band n53 in its new 5G X65 modem. This should also expand the satellite operator's potential device ecosystem significantly to include smartphones, laptops and tablets.</p><p><blockquote>高通（纳斯达克：QCOM）在其新的5G X65调制解调器中包含了Globalstar的n53频段，这使得这种混合成为可能。这也应该会显着扩大卫星运营商的潜在设备生态系统，将智能手机、笔记本电脑和平板电脑包括在内。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, the&nbsp;Snapdragon X65&nbsp;will be released in the fall of&nbsp;2022, most likely into next year’s iPhone. Better peak performance and other benefits should be there, but some will require carriers to upgrade their networks. On the other hand, with band n53, one can imagine the transformation of future mobility communications with a single operator plan anywhere in the world, without necessitating roaming, with no need to buy local SIM cards.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，骁龙X 65将于2022年秋季发布，很可能会进入明年的iPhone。应该会有更好的峰值性能和其他好处，但有些需要运营商升级他们的网络。另一方面，有了n53频段，人们可以想象未来移动通信的转变，在世界任何地方，通过单一运营商计划，无需漫游，无需购买本地SIM卡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Globalstar's differentiation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球星的差异化</b></blockquote></p><p> Thus, this is not just about emergency calls or messaging and in a way, shows Globalstar's edge as a satellite network operator over telco's mobile network operations.</p><p><blockquote>因此，这不仅仅是关于紧急评级或消息传递，在某种程度上，显示了Globalstar作为卫星网络运营商相对于电信公司移动网络运营的优势。</blockquote></p><p> Now, satellite communications is a huge industry, estimated at $56.01 billion&nbsp;in 2019 and expected to hit $99.58 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2027. Going deeper, there are several satellite operators and service providers, with Iridium (IRDM) and Orbcomm (ORBC). Other companies are involved in space technology like DISH Networks (DISH) and AT&amp;T (T).</p><p><blockquote>现在，卫星通信是一个巨大的产业，2019年估计为560.1亿美元，预计到2027年将达到995.8亿美元，2020年至2027年的CAGR为9.2%。更深入地说，有几家卫星运营商和服务提供商，包括铱星(IRDM)和Orbcomm(ORBC)。其他公司也涉足太空技术，如DISH Networks(DISH)和AT&amp;T(T)。</blockquote></p><p> Here, GlobalStar seems to be having some key strengths with respect to peers.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，GlobalStar似乎相对于同行拥有一些关键优势。</blockquote></p><p> According to the company's website, its&nbsp;strategically&nbsp;placed gateways offer local network access and national numbering plans as opposed to other LEO systems that require expensive international dialing for all calls. Also, Globalstar has a unique design which allows it to offer the most attractive local dialing and pricing plans to customers.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的网站，其战略性放置的网关提供本地网络接入和国家编号计划，而其他LEO系统需要为所有评级进行昂贵的国际拨号。此外，Globalstar拥有独特的设计，使其能够向客户提供最具吸引力的本地拨号和定价计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Pursuing further, Globalstar’s 24 ground stations also serve as a bridge between LEO satellites and traditional communications infrastructure on six continents, with coverage spanning across over 120 countries throughout the world. Furthermore, the second generation ground infrastructure is based on the Internet protocol multimedia subsystem (\"IMS\") protocol, which facilitates the use of IP (Internet Protocol) for packet communications over wireless or landline.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Globalstar的24个地面站还充当了低地球轨道卫星和六大洲传统通信基础设施之间的桥梁，覆盖全球120多个国家。此外，第二代地面基础设施基于因特网协议多媒体子系统(“IMS”)协议，其便于使用IP(因特网协议)进行无线或陆线上的分组通信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ab07af4d39eb03b1776e870748b773f\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: globalstar.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：globalstar.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Globalstar brings some attractive metrics for a behemoth like Apple looking to penetrate new markets. In this respect, according to a source, more than&nbsp;five billion mobile subscribers&nbsp;constantly move in and out of wireless coverage, representing a huge TAM.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Globalstar为像苹果这样寻求渗透新市场的巨头带来了一些有吸引力的指标。在这方面，根据一个消息来源，超过50亿的移动用户不断地进出无线覆盖，这代表了一个巨大的TAM。</blockquote></p><p> Bagging a contract with Apple, even a partial one, or in partnership with another peer would increase the volume of new subscribers, which should in turn more than offset the current revenue impact from lower ARPU (Average Revenue per User).</p><p><blockquote>与苹果签订合同，即使是部分合同，或者与另一家同行合作，都会增加新用户数量，这反过来应该足以抵消当前ARPU（每用户平均收入）下降对收入的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The revenues</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Overall sales have gone down in the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year as higher revenue generated from subscriber equipment related to SPOT (the largest segment) was offset by lower service revenues. For investors, SPOT is a GPS tracking device that uses Globalstar's satellite network to provide text messaging and GPS tracking.</p><p><blockquote>与去年相比，2021年第二季度的整体销售额有所下降，因为与SPOT（最大的细分市场）相关的用户设备产生的更高收入被服务收入的下降所抵消。对于投资者来说，SPOT是一款GPS跟踪设备，它使用Globalstar的卫星网络提供短信和GPS跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> Looking deeper, service revenue also decreased over the prior year's quarter due to fewer Duplex subscribers, with the decline expected to continue as Globalstar focuses resources on other revenue streams, like IoT-enabled devices. This is done in light of the shift in demand across the MSS (mobile satellite services) industry.</p><p><blockquote>更深入地看，由于双工用户减少，服务收入也比去年同期下降，随着Globalstar将资源集中在其他收入流（例如支持物联网的设备）上，预计这种下降将持续下去。这是鉴于整个MSS（移动卫星服务）行业的需求转变而完成的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e8b74a670c927d2d84f1751cfd4a148\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"457\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, service revenues generated from commercial IoT subscribers increased 5% in the second quarter of 2021 driven by higher ARPU compared to the prior year's quarter. Additionally, IoT equipment sales were up significantly from the prior year period, which is a key indication of future service revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，由于ARPU较上年同期上升，2021年第二季度商业物联网用户产生的服务收入增长了5%。此外，物联网设备销售额较去年同期大幅增长，这是未来服务收入增长的关键指标。</blockquote></p><p> Thinking aloud, lower ARPU for SPOT also points to competition, with Globalstar competing aggressively on price in the industrial, governmental and consumer markets. Looking at&nbsp;satellite phones and communication gadgets, some of the competitors include Garmin's (GRMN) InReach, Iridium Go and the Thuraya X5-Touch, which is a dual-SIM Android smartphone.</p><p><blockquote>仔细想想，SPOT较低的ARPU也表明了竞争，Globalstar在工业、政府和消费市场上进行了激烈的价格竞争。从卫星电话和通信设备来看，一些竞争对手包括Garmin(GRMN)的InReach、Iridium Go和Thuraya X5-Touch（一款双卡Android智能手机）。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the company has to cut prices with its “competitively-priced service plans being lower than historic rates”. Therefore, SPOT revenues should continue to decline in the near term, with higher volumes of activations not being able to offset the effects of lower ARPU on sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，该公司不得不降价，其“价格有竞争力的服务计划低于历史费率”。因此，现货收入在短期内应该会继续下降，更高的激活量无法抵消较低的ARPU对销售的影响。</blockquote></p><p> A comparison with rival Iridium shows contrasting revenue trends, with Globalstar being on a fluctuating trend since the end of 2019, coinciding with more competition.</p><p><blockquote>与竞争对手铱星的比较显示了截然不同的收入趋势，Globalstar自2019年底以来一直处于波动趋势，同时竞争更加激烈。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be74c4a607fae52a664620ba3cf9d68\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Charts built through data from Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：通过Seeking Alpha的数据构建的图表。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, adopting a cautionary posture, a change in the revenue-generating model geared towards IoT may take time to execute, whereby sales figures could drop further. This may in turn lead to missing topline expectations during the third quarter results, causing the share price to dip. For this matter, as I had pointed out in my previousthesis, one of the risks in investing in Globalstar is its dependence on the fortunes of the oil and gas industry.</p><p><blockquote>因此，采取谨慎的态度，面向物联网的创收模式的改变可能需要时间来执行，从而销售数字可能会进一步下降。这反过来可能会导致第三季度业绩未达到预期，导致股价下跌。就此而言，正如我在之前的论文中指出的那样，投资Globalstar的风险之一是其对石油和天然气行业命运的依赖。</blockquote></p><p> On the positive side, the company continues to reduce leverage, with less than $50 million of net first lien principal outstanding at the end of Q2-2021.</p><p><blockquote>从积极的一面来看，该公司继续降低杠杆率，截至2021年第二季度末，未偿第一留置权本金净额不到5000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, the company held $15.7 million and $51.0 million of cash and restricted cash respectively. Globalstar has received an additional&nbsp;$37.5 million&nbsp;in advance payment from a customer. The new payment is under \"substantially the same terms\" as a similar $37.5 million payment received on&nbsp;June 9. As with the other payment, Globalstar will use the new $37.5 million in proceeds to pay down indebtedness under its first-lien credit facility. In the last report, the company had&nbsp;$313.4 million&nbsp;in long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，该公司分别持有1570万美元和5100万美元的现金和限制性现金。Globalstar已收到客户额外支付的3750万美元预付款。新付款的条款与6月9日收到的类似3750万美元付款“基本相同”。与其他付款一样，Globalstar将使用新的3750万美元收益来偿还其第一留置权信贷安排下的债务。在上一份报告中，该公司的长期债务为3.134亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuations and key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值和主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As much as 16% of revenues were derived from IoT in the first six months of 2021, up from 14% in the same period last year. Now, in a market growing at&nbsp;10.1%&nbsp;from 2019 to 2025, there is a lot of scope, but it will also depend on Globalstar's ability to meaningfully identify, pursue and close large deals. This should contribute to further diversify its revenue base away from full Duplex.</p><p><blockquote>2021年前六个月，多达16%的收入来自物联网，高于去年同期的14%。现在，在一个从2019年到2025年以10.1%的速度增长的市场中，有很大的空间，但这也将取决于Globalstar有意义地识别、追求和完成大型交易的能力。这应有助于进一步多元化其收入基础，摆脱全双工。</blockquote></p><p> The company has also performed successful field testing for remote monitoring in the alternative energy industry, which it expects to materialize into future sales, but without mentioning a timeline.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还成功地在替代能源行业进行了远程监控的现场测试，预计这将在未来的销售中实现，但没有提及时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, this is a loss-making company with losses from operations having increased by $0.6 million during the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year. Earnings per share which was&nbsp;-$0.01&nbsp;for the second quarter is expected to be the same in the third one. This compares to positive figures for the communications sector, which boasts forward Price to Earnings multiples of&nbsp;20x. This signifies no buying opportunity based on fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这是一家亏损公司，与去年相比，2021年第二季度的运营亏损增加了60万美元。第二季度每股收益为-0.01美元，预计第三季度将持平。相比之下，通信行业的预期市盈率为20倍。这意味着没有基于基本面的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The only way Globalstar's loss status could change rapidly is commercialization of its n53 spectrum in the U.S. and other countries through presence in the iPhone ecosystem. A partnership with Apple will permit expansion of the satellite communications business, more effective utilization of network assets and enable Globalstar to leapfrog rivals. The fact that both companies work with Qualcomm is a positive for Globalstar.</p><p><blockquote>Globalstar的损失状况能够迅速改变的唯一方法是通过iPhone生态系统在美国和其他国家实现其n53频谱的商业化。与苹果的合作将允许扩大卫星通信业务，更有效地利用网络资产，并使Globalstar能够超越竞争对手。两家公司都与高通合作的事实对Globalstar来说是一个积极的因素。</blockquote></p><p> This said, in absence of corporate announcements, Globalstar's stock has been surging amid ongoing speculation that its satellite communication technology may be included in Apple's new iPhone models, resulting in&nbsp;high&nbsp;Price to Sales multiples of over 2000% with respect to the communications sector.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在没有公司公告的情况下，Globalstar的股价一直在飙升，因为人们不断猜测其卫星通信技术可能会包含在苹果的新款iPhone中，导致通信行业的市销率超过2000%。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, for rational investors, it is preferable to wait for an update at the\"California Streaming\" event&nbsp;on September 14 before making a decision. In the meantime, the stock could drop to the $2 support level.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于理性投资者来说，最好等待9月14日“加州流媒体”活动的更新后再做出决定。与此同时，该股可能会跌至2美元的支撑位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454436-one-small-step-from-apple-could-mean-a-giant-leap-for-globalstar\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GSAT":"全球星"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454436-one-small-step-from-apple-could-mean-a-giant-leap-for-globalstar","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127461097","content_text":"Summary\n\nAt first sight, Globalstar is just one more satellite communications play.\nLooking deeper, its Band n53, which offers secure and reliable connectivity in any environment, is now included into Qualcomm's latest 5G modems for smartphones.\nBeing selected by Apple could mean a lot for Globalstar in its strategy to boost and diversify revenues, as well as change the current loss-making status.\nEven without Apple, the company merits interest, but only as a long-term beneficiary of IoT amid fierce competition and ability to reduce debt.\nValuations are sky-high in light of all the news hitting the market and, it is better to wait for some concrete news at Apple's event next week before investing.\n\nmetamorworks/iStock via Getty Images\nGlobalstar's (GSAT) shares soared 40% on August 30 after a report by MacRumors which cited expert Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities, about iPhone 13 using satellite connectivity so that users can make calls and texts in areas without cellular coverage.\nData by YCharts\nSoon afterwards, there were some further clarification by Bloomberg specifying that those features aren't due soon, but rather for future iPhones and should allow users to issue crash reports or text messages in areas without cellular coverage.\nNow, for Apple to even consider adding any satellite-based feature to its global brand would mean a lot for Globalstar, but first, for investors, I make sense of it all.\nReasons for Apple to choose Globalstar\nFor most of us, our experience with satellite-based internet has meant poor or sometimes erratic connectivity, but these were mostly with the geostationary satellites located far above the earth's surface. Instead, the opportunities offered by Globalstar's Low Earth Orbit (\"LEO\") satellites are much better, especially in areas that don't have 4G or 5G cellular coverage.\nTo have an idea of the potential of LEO satellites, one can take a glance at Elon Musk’s SpaceX's (SPACE). These have been deployed at locations in the U.S and the U.K. with several customers already having signed up to the service. Bench-marking by Speedtest showed download speeds of 97.23 Mbps,or far superior than those for other traditional providers. This speed was lower than the 115.22 Mbps median speed for fixed broadband providers, but makes sense for \"disadvantaged locations\" where telcos find it uneconomical to lay down additional fiber or expand cellular coverage.\nTherefore, given the enormous potential of the blending between the iPhone and satellite connectivity, news about Apple using Globalstar's network only for emergency purposes seems more aimed at not alarming its telco partners with whom it has been working since decades.\nThis blending is made possible by Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM) inclusion of Globalstar's band n53 in its new 5G X65 modem. This should also expand the satellite operator's potential device ecosystem significantly to include smartphones, laptops and tablets.\nFor investors, the Snapdragon X65 will be released in the fall of 2022, most likely into next year’s iPhone. Better peak performance and other benefits should be there, but some will require carriers to upgrade their networks. On the other hand, with band n53, one can imagine the transformation of future mobility communications with a single operator plan anywhere in the world, without necessitating roaming, with no need to buy local SIM cards.\nGlobalstar's differentiation\nThus, this is not just about emergency calls or messaging and in a way, shows Globalstar's edge as a satellite network operator over telco's mobile network operations.\nNow, satellite communications is a huge industry, estimated at $56.01 billion in 2019 and expected to hit $99.58 billion by 2027, registering a CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2027. Going deeper, there are several satellite operators and service providers, with Iridium (IRDM) and Orbcomm (ORBC). Other companies are involved in space technology like DISH Networks (DISH) and AT&T (T).\nHere, GlobalStar seems to be having some key strengths with respect to peers.\nAccording to the company's website, its strategically placed gateways offer local network access and national numbering plans as opposed to other LEO systems that require expensive international dialing for all calls. Also, Globalstar has a unique design which allows it to offer the most attractive local dialing and pricing plans to customers.\nPursuing further, Globalstar’s 24 ground stations also serve as a bridge between LEO satellites and traditional communications infrastructure on six continents, with coverage spanning across over 120 countries throughout the world. Furthermore, the second generation ground infrastructure is based on the Internet protocol multimedia subsystem (\"IMS\") protocol, which facilitates the use of IP (Internet Protocol) for packet communications over wireless or landline.\nSource: globalstar.com\nConsequently, Globalstar brings some attractive metrics for a behemoth like Apple looking to penetrate new markets. In this respect, according to a source, more than five billion mobile subscribers constantly move in and out of wireless coverage, representing a huge TAM.\nBagging a contract with Apple, even a partial one, or in partnership with another peer would increase the volume of new subscribers, which should in turn more than offset the current revenue impact from lower ARPU (Average Revenue per User).\nThe revenues\nOverall sales have gone down in the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year as higher revenue generated from subscriber equipment related to SPOT (the largest segment) was offset by lower service revenues. For investors, SPOT is a GPS tracking device that uses Globalstar's satellite network to provide text messaging and GPS tracking.\nLooking deeper, service revenue also decreased over the prior year's quarter due to fewer Duplex subscribers, with the decline expected to continue as Globalstar focuses resources on other revenue streams, like IoT-enabled devices. This is done in light of the shift in demand across the MSS (mobile satellite services) industry.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nInterestingly, service revenues generated from commercial IoT subscribers increased 5% in the second quarter of 2021 driven by higher ARPU compared to the prior year's quarter. Additionally, IoT equipment sales were up significantly from the prior year period, which is a key indication of future service revenue growth.\nThinking aloud, lower ARPU for SPOT also points to competition, with Globalstar competing aggressively on price in the industrial, governmental and consumer markets. Looking at satellite phones and communication gadgets, some of the competitors include Garmin's (GRMN) InReach, Iridium Go and the Thuraya X5-Touch, which is a dual-SIM Android smartphone.\nAs a result, the company has to cut prices with its “competitively-priced service plans being lower than historic rates”. Therefore, SPOT revenues should continue to decline in the near term, with higher volumes of activations not being able to offset the effects of lower ARPU on sales.\nA comparison with rival Iridium shows contrasting revenue trends, with Globalstar being on a fluctuating trend since the end of 2019, coinciding with more competition.\nSource: Charts built through data from Seeking Alpha.\nTherefore, adopting a cautionary posture, a change in the revenue-generating model geared towards IoT may take time to execute, whereby sales figures could drop further. This may in turn lead to missing topline expectations during the third quarter results, causing the share price to dip. For this matter, as I had pointed out in my previousthesis, one of the risks in investing in Globalstar is its dependence on the fortunes of the oil and gas industry.\nOn the positive side, the company continues to reduce leverage, with less than $50 million of net first lien principal outstanding at the end of Q2-2021.\nAs of June 30, 2021, the company held $15.7 million and $51.0 million of cash and restricted cash respectively. Globalstar has received an additional $37.5 million in advance payment from a customer. The new payment is under \"substantially the same terms\" as a similar $37.5 million payment received on June 9. As with the other payment, Globalstar will use the new $37.5 million in proceeds to pay down indebtedness under its first-lien credit facility. In the last report, the company had $313.4 million in long-term debt.\nValuations and key takeaways\nAs much as 16% of revenues were derived from IoT in the first six months of 2021, up from 14% in the same period last year. Now, in a market growing at 10.1% from 2019 to 2025, there is a lot of scope, but it will also depend on Globalstar's ability to meaningfully identify, pursue and close large deals. This should contribute to further diversify its revenue base away from full Duplex.\nThe company has also performed successful field testing for remote monitoring in the alternative energy industry, which it expects to materialize into future sales, but without mentioning a timeline.\nFurthermore, this is a loss-making company with losses from operations having increased by $0.6 million during the second quarter of 2021 compared to last year. Earnings per share which was -$0.01 for the second quarter is expected to be the same in the third one. This compares to positive figures for the communications sector, which boasts forward Price to Earnings multiples of 20x. This signifies no buying opportunity based on fundamentals.\nThe only way Globalstar's loss status could change rapidly is commercialization of its n53 spectrum in the U.S. and other countries through presence in the iPhone ecosystem. A partnership with Apple will permit expansion of the satellite communications business, more effective utilization of network assets and enable Globalstar to leapfrog rivals. The fact that both companies work with Qualcomm is a positive for Globalstar.\nThis said, in absence of corporate announcements, Globalstar's stock has been surging amid ongoing speculation that its satellite communication technology may be included in Apple's new iPhone models, resulting in high Price to Sales multiples of over 2000% with respect to the communications sector.\nConsequently, for rational investors, it is preferable to wait for an update at the\"California Streaming\" event on September 14 before making a decision. In the meantime, the stock could drop to the $2 support level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GSAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814554632,"gmtCreate":1630850023326,"gmtModify":1631891632174,"author":{"id":"3560831219193285","authorId":"3560831219193285","name":"Fannyhan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0116a2b071eaac617ed972db058b41c0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560831219193285","authorIdStr":"3560831219193285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814554632","repostId":"2164803577","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834701191,"gmtCreate":1629826130013,"gmtModify":1631891632177,"author":{"id":"3560831219193285","authorId":"3560831219193285","name":"Fannyhan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0116a2b071eaac617ed972db058b41c0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560831219193285","authorIdStr":"3560831219193285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834701191","repostId":"2161089309","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897409255,"gmtCreate":1628952237577,"gmtModify":1631891632180,"author":{"id":"3560831219193285","authorId":"3560831219193285","name":"Fannyhan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0116a2b071eaac617ed972db058b41c0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560831219193285","authorIdStr":"3560831219193285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897409255","repostId":"1149823415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149823415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628909753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149823415?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149823415","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望，维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份，当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章（链接到本文所附文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究，未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街日报下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到，近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的是，华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期，以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来，SPCE的价值已下跌约33%，我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强，该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始，但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间，当我们正在制造更多母舰时，这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周，而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利还强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是，我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是，在此增强期之后，我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间，这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve，并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招，但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，并且该公司明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样，尽快列出优先事项清单：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后，我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示：“……这些年来，我遇到了很多维珍（银河）的持票人。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，由于他们多年来分享的经历，他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，多年来，由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一，那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人，他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，每个座位的价格从45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙，还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此，当我们将这群人引入时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，如果不对VMS Eve进行修改，该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共60名乘客。到2023年，该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班，这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏真的不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作，这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决，因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆，“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆，这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏，VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过提高达美级的产量和产能，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河强调的那样：“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，便于我们沟通，也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游，摩根士丹利强调，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，假设技术快速发展，到2040年，太空市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度，但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到2030年底，估值看起来仍然昂贵，为18.5倍，比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，平均目标价为35.55美元，仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%，因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵，我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者，但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑，该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破（熊市陷阱）。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 10:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望，维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份，当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章（链接到本文所附文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究，未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街日报下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到，近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的是，华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期，以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来，SPCE的价值已下跌约33%，我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强，该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始，但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间，当我们正在制造更多母舰时，这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周，而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利还强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是，我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是，在此增强期之后，我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间，这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve，并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招，但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，并且该公司明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样，尽快列出优先事项清单：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后，我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示：“……这些年来，我遇到了很多维珍（银河）的持票人。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，由于他们多年来分享的经历，他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，多年来，由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一，那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人，他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，每个座位的价格从45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙，还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此，当我们将这群人引入时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，如果不对VMS Eve进行修改，该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共60名乘客。到2023年，该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班，这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏真的不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作，这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决，因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆，“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆，这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏，VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过提高达美级的产量和产能，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河强调的那样：“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，便于我们沟通，也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游，摩根士丹利强调，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，假设技术快速发展，到2040年，太空市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度，但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到2030年底，估值看起来仍然昂贵，为18.5倍，比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，平均目标价为35.55美元，仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%，因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵，我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者，但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑，该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破（熊市陷阱）。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149823415","content_text":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.\nHowever, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.\nWe would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.\nLastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.\n\nNastco/iStock via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBack in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.\nSince then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from late Q3'CY22.\nThis article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.\nLastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.\nRevisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates\nMay's consensus revenue estimates & Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nScale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nInvestors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.\nPrivate Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22\nSPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.\nAs a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.\nHowever, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:\n\n These enhancements\n could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.\n\nIn addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"\nThe Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"\nSure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:\n\n These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and\n that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today.\"\n\nIf investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:\n\n Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.\n\nWe are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).\nAre There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?\nYes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"\nInvestors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"\nThe company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"\nImportantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.\nVirgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience.And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"\nStrong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage\nAstute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.\nBased on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.\nThe initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.\nHowever, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.\nPart of the reason that the company needed to raise the $500M equity offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.\nCrucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"\nCompeting Against Blue Origin\nWe think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.\nWhile we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”\nWe think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"\nTherefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.\nOne thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.\nVirgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.\nFree Cash Flow Forecast & Valuations\nEBITDA margin forecast & CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nDespite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.\nHowever, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.\nStreet's mean price target. Source: TIKR\nThe Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.\nWhile we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.\nSPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.\nSPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.\nIn summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891148882,"gmtCreate":1628356840546,"gmtModify":1631891632184,"author":{"id":"3560831219193285","authorId":"3560831219193285","name":"Fannyhan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0116a2b071eaac617ed972db058b41c0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560831219193285","authorIdStr":"3560831219193285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891148882","repostId":"2157492839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802860100,"gmtCreate":1627752946800,"gmtModify":1631891632186,"author":{"id":"3560831219193285","authorId":"3560831219193285","name":"Fannyhan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0116a2b071eaac617ed972db058b41c0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560831219193285","authorIdStr":"3560831219193285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802860100","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803952261,"gmtCreate":1627403679853,"gmtModify":1631891632189,"author":{"id":"3560831219193285","authorId":"3560831219193285","name":"Fannyhan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0116a2b071eaac617ed972db058b41c0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560831219193285","authorIdStr":"3560831219193285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803952261","repostId":"2154199069","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174960400,"gmtCreate":1627058615800,"gmtModify":1631891632196,"author":{"id":"3560831219193285","authorId":"3560831219193285","name":"Fannyhan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0116a2b071eaac617ed972db058b41c0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560831219193285","authorIdStr":"3560831219193285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174960400","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172048690,"gmtCreate":1626923384210,"gmtModify":1631891632199,"author":{"id":"3560831219193285","authorId":"3560831219193285","name":"Fannyhan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0116a2b071eaac617ed972db058b41c0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560831219193285","authorIdStr":"3560831219193285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172048690","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178844061,"gmtCreate":1626801823053,"gmtModify":1631891632199,"author":{"id":"3560831219193285","authorId":"3560831219193285","name":"Fannyhan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0116a2b071eaac617ed972db058b41c0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560831219193285","authorIdStr":"3560831219193285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178844061","repostId":"1171942645","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}