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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-10-23
$蔚来(NIO)$
稳中求胜。
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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-05-23
危险，上周四美国又出现上年股灾的逆回购失衡，达到俩千亿超过上年。如果下周再出现短期国债抵押品抢购就会引发上年同时抛售股票的股灾现象。美联储有可能缩减QE,已经引发第二波市场恐慌了，下周会不会有死亡第三波，就看周一美指的反弹力度。不然就要小心谨慎操作减仓调好止损。
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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-05-14
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
系好安全带！美国5月CPI或突破6%
海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。概要美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主
系好安全带！美国5月CPI或突破6%
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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-03-25
老牌道指成份股，抗跌能力强。
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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-03-23
电动车三杰将回归港A 股。强势来袭。
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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-03-23
道指成份股，成长型。
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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-02-10
ARK的极力推荐潜力无限的成长股，值得持有。
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-01-29
免费击风景，是时候来个华尔街革命。
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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-01-23
$蔚来(NIO)$
潜力无限值得持有。
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Lambortony
Lambortony
·
2021-01-01
其实中国数字银行的大时代背景要来临了，蚂蚁，腾讯的整改只是时代的产物在过度和蜕变。国际金融的自序从始开先河换新颜。我相信中国要强大不单是科技要创新，金融创新和强大才不会给西方国家欺压。迎接新时代的货币战争要从这俩大桥头堡的整编开始。
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>稳中求胜。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>稳中求胜。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$稳中求胜。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c0502dfe38180397e53f3cf1427015","width":"1080","height":"2162"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851758544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":133524030,"gmtCreate":1621772820020,"gmtModify":1631883815711,"author":{"id":"3569673127781309","authorId":"3569673127781309","name":"Lambortony","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e02d9c2c2960e8a189995791a4995396","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569673127781309","authorIdStr":"3569673127781309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"危险，上周四美国又出现上年股灾的逆回购失衡，达到俩千亿超过上年。如果下周再出现短期国债抵押品抢购就会引发上年同时抛售股票的股灾现象。美联储有可能缩减QE,已经引发第二波市场恐慌了，下周会不会有死亡第三波，就看周一美指的反弹力度。不然就要小心谨慎操作减仓调好止损。","listText":"危险，上周四美国又出现上年股灾的逆回购失衡，达到俩千亿超过上年。如果下周再出现短期国债抵押品抢购就会引发上年同时抛售股票的股灾现象。美联储有可能缩减QE,已经引发第二波市场恐慌了，下周会不会有死亡第三波，就看周一美指的反弹力度。不然就要小心谨慎操作减仓调好止损。","text":"危险，上周四美国又出现上年股灾的逆回购失衡，达到俩千亿超过上年。如果下周再出现短期国债抵押品抢购就会引发上年同时抛售股票的股灾现象。美联储有可能缩减QE,已经引发第二波市场恐慌了，下周会不会有死亡第三波，就看周一美指的反弹力度。不然就要小心谨慎操作减仓调好止损。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48556b69ceec2d831ab93cb4fbd7edb2","width":"2340","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133524030","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198288614,"gmtCreate":1620961626438,"gmtModify":1634194927968,"author":{"id":"3569673127781309","authorId":"3569673127781309","name":"Lambortony","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e02d9c2c2960e8a189995791a4995396","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569673127781309","authorIdStr":"3569673127781309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198288614","repostId":"1148551338","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148551338","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620953344,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148551338?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-14 08:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"系好安全带！美国5月CPI或突破6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148551338","media":"梁中华宏观研究","summary":"海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。概要美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主","content":"<blockquote>海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。</blockquote><p><b>概要</b></p><p><b>美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力</b>，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速复苏以及汽车芯片短缺有关。此外，美国商品通胀仍高，尤其是耐用品通胀创82年以来新高；如果剔除基数效应，服务通胀已经高于商品通胀。</p><p>由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。</p><p>美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><b>美国通胀超预期。</b>4月美国CPI同比上升至4.2%，超市场预期（WIND口径）的3.6%，创08年9月以来新高；此外，CPI环比0.8%，也创12年3月以来新高。剔除食品和能源影响后，4月美国核心CPI同比上升至3.0%，超市场预期的2.3%，创95年4月以来新高。</p><p><b>从分项来看，4月CPI的主要推动力来自能源和交通运输。</b>4月能源CPI 同比上升至25.0%，较上月上升了约12个百分点；4月交通运输CPI 同比上升至14.8% ，也较上月上升了约9 个百分点，二者在CPI 构成中的权重超过20% 。<b>能源和交通运输大幅上升，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速恢复以及汽车芯片短缺有关。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc561a97e814c24d684fa980f9beeb2f\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9656c5df265dc827276ab643b4f9e0f\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>从结构来看，商品通胀仍是主要驱动力，服务通胀也在稳步上升。</b>4 月商品通胀由上月的4.1% 上行至6.7% ，4 月服务通胀也由上月的1.8% 上行至2.6% ，其中，耐用品通胀再度飙升至7.3% ，创82 年以来新高。</p><p><b>如果剔除基数效应，</b>4 月商品通胀为2.0% （较19 年同期年化平均增速），而服务通胀为仍高达2.3% ，耐用品通胀则为3.3% （除今年外，仍是95 年以来高点）。<b>此外，需要强调的是，即使剔除食品和能源以及基数效应，核心商品和核心服务均在上行趋势中。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd4a8facf6d94bd1bd5d0e23aa4d848c\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>往前看，</b>由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，<b>所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。</b></p><p><b>美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/764862979516bbf673b3a2ecb8eeff11\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">本文作者：梁中华、李俊，来源：海通宏观，原文标题：《美国5月CPI或突破6%——美国4月物价数据点评》</p>","source":"lzhhgyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>系好安全带！美国5月CPI或突破6%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n系好安全带！美国5月CPI或突破6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-14 08:49 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CBaL5FnI_tcrRiwRUD3-tA><strong>梁中华宏观研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。概要美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速复苏以及汽车芯片短缺有关。此外，美国商品通胀仍高，尤其是耐用品通胀创82年以来新高；如果剔除基数效应，服务通胀已经高于商品通胀。由于高额财政补贴，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CBaL5FnI_tcrRiwRUD3-tA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CBaL5FnI_tcrRiwRUD3-tA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148551338","content_text":"海通宏观梁中华认为，美国4月通胀超预期，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。概要美国4月通胀超预期，其中，能源和交通运输是主要驱动力，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速复苏以及汽车芯片短缺有关。此外，美国商品通胀仍高，尤其是耐用品通胀创82年以来新高；如果剔除基数效应，服务通胀已经高于商品通胀。由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。正文美国通胀超预期。4月美国CPI同比上升至4.2%，超市场预期（WIND口径）的3.6%，创08年9月以来新高；此外，CPI环比0.8%，也创12年3月以来新高。剔除食品和能源影响后，4月美国核心CPI同比上升至3.0%，超市场预期的2.3%，创95年4月以来新高。从分项来看，4月CPI的主要推动力来自能源和交通运输。4月能源CPI 同比上升至25.0%，较上月上升了约12个百分点；4月交通运输CPI 同比上升至14.8% ，也较上月上升了约9 个百分点，二者在CPI 构成中的权重超过20% 。能源和交通运输大幅上升，一方面与去年低基数有关；另一方面与经济加速恢复以及汽车芯片短缺有关。从结构来看，商品通胀仍是主要驱动力，服务通胀也在稳步上升。4 月商品通胀由上月的4.1% 上行至6.7% ，4 月服务通胀也由上月的1.8% 上行至2.6% ，其中，耐用品通胀再度飙升至7.3% ，创82 年以来新高。如果剔除基数效应，4 月商品通胀为2.0% （较19 年同期年化平均增速），而服务通胀为仍高达2.3% ，耐用品通胀则为3.3% （除今年外，仍是95 年以来高点）。此外，需要强调的是，即使剔除食品和能源以及基数效应，核心商品和核心服务均在上行趋势中。往前看，由于高额财政补贴，美国居民收入大幅上升，消费能力大增。去年由于疫情防控，美国居民主要消费商品，所以商品通胀大涨。今年随着疫苗不断接种，疫情防控措施放开，服务消费需求也会明显回升，但高额失业补贴拖累就业表现（低收入者就业改善明显放缓），会限制美国服务业供给，而服务类消费又难以像商品那样从海外进口，所以接下来美国通胀压力会更大。美元大超发的后果，从4月美国CPI数据可见一斑，5月美国CPI可能冲到6-7%，美债利率或继续上冲，年内有望到2%-2.5%；美元趋势上行，但今年幅度会相对较小，需要加息预期的发酵推升。本文作者：梁中华、李俊，来源：海通宏观，原文标题：《美国5月CPI或突破6%——美国4月物价数据点评》","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358039538,"gmtCreate":1616638724924,"gmtModify":1634524790677,"author":{"id":"3569673127781309","authorId":"3569673127781309","name":"Lambortony","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e02d9c2c2960e8a189995791a4995396","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569673127781309","authorIdStr":"3569673127781309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老牌道指成份股，抗跌能力强。","listText":"老牌道指成份股，抗跌能力强。","text":"老牌道指成份股，抗跌能力强。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/883736b94e7333a55f8223e928195397","width":"1080","height":"2069"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358039538","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353669507,"gmtCreate":1616492229109,"gmtModify":1634525553859,"author":{"id":"3569673127781309","authorId":"3569673127781309","name":"Lambortony","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e02d9c2c2960e8a189995791a4995396","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569673127781309","authorIdStr":"3569673127781309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"电动车三杰将回归港A 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